presentation of g4 by mr. zahir & ms. farhana, iwm

7/31/2019 Presentation of G4 by Mr. Zahir & Ms. Farhana, IWM

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Conte

nts Introduction Activities

Progress andOutputs

Opportunities

Future Work Plan


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I. MoU with the partner institutions: IWMI, IWFM-BUET andBWDB

II. Selection of the study area and development of workplan

III. Secondary and field data collection and analysisIV. Fieldvisits and Community consultation

V. Literature review

VI. Participation in IFWF3

VII. Selection of external drivers

VIII. Climate change projection

IX. Selection and calibration of water flow and salinity models

X. Development of SWAT model


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Selection of the study area

In the early sixties and seventies, 139 polders (ofwhich 49 are sea-facing) were constructed to protectlow lying coastal areas from tidal flood & salinity

intrusion.

Polder-3

Polder-30

Polder-43/2F


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At the selected polders (3, 30 and 43/2F) the following

primary data are being collected:q Salinity in the adjacent Rivers and in the Khals & Ghersinside the Polders

q Survey of the drainage system: cross section of khals &embankments and geometry of regulators

q Water level measurement in the Khals & adjacent riversq Water flow measurement (tidal) in the adjacent Rivers

qTopography & land level survey of the three polders fordetailed Digital Elevation Model (DEM)

Field Data Collection and Analysis:

These data will be utilized for Establishment of present drainage condition, salinity leveland flow availability Calibrate and validate the models


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Survey location at Polder-3

Salinitymonitoring stations

Waterlevelmonitorin

g stationsWaterflowmeasurement

stations


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Survey location at Polder-30


WaterLevelmonitoring stations

Waterflow

measurementstations


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Survey location at Polder-43/2F


Waterlevelmonitoring stations

Water flow

measurementstations


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POLDER-3


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POLDER-3

0 24

00

4800

72

00

9600

12

000

144

00

16800

19

200

21

600

24

000

26

400

28800

312

00

33600

36000

38

400

40800

0

2

4

6

8

1012

14

16

18

20

22

24

Polder 3 (Station-1, Ichamoti River)

Date

Salinity (ppt)

0 2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12

000

14

0

00

16000

18000

20000

22

000

24

0

00

26000

28000

30000

32

000

34

0

00

36000

38000

40000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Polder 3 (Station-2, Ichamoti river)

Date

Salinity (ppt)

0 24

00

4800

72

00

9600

12

000

144

00

16800

19

200

21

600

24

000

26

400

28800

312

00

33600

36000

38

400

40800

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1820

22

24

Polder 3 (Station-3, Habra Khal)

Date

Salinity (ppt)

0 2600

52

00

7800

10

400

13000

15600

18

200

20800

23

400

26000

28600

312

00

33800

36

400

39000

0

2

4

6

8

10

1214

16

Inside Polder 3 (Station-4, Sonnasirchalk))

Date

Salinity (ppt)

0 21

00

42

00

6300

84

00

10500

12

600

147

00

16800

18900

21

000

23

100

25

200

27

300

29

400

31

500

33600

35

700

37

800

39900

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Inside Polder 3 (Station-5, Kanjia)

Date

Salinity (ppt)


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POLDER-

30

ld ( i )

id ld ( i h i h l)


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POLDER-30 0 15

0246

810121416182022

Polder 30 (Station-1)

Date

Salinity (ppt)

0 15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Polder 30 (Station-2, Pussur river)

Date

Salinity (ppt)

0 15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18Polder 30 (Station-3, Pussur river)

Date

Salinity (ppt)

0 15

0

2

4

68

10

12

14

16

18

20

Polder 30 (Station-4, Jhapjhapia river)

Date

Salinity (ppt)

-1

05

27

95

5695

8595

114

95

14

395

172

95

20

195

23095

25995

28895

317

95

34

695

37

595

40

495

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Inside Polder 30 (Station-5, Kharia Khal)

Date

Salinity (ppt)

P ld 43 2f (St ti 1 G i kh li i )


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POLDER- 43/2f0 1

50

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Polder 43-2f (Station-1, Guiskhali river)

Date

Salinity (ppt)

00

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Polder 43-2f (Station-2 (Out Side),Payra River)

Date

Salinity (ppt)

0 150

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Polder 43-2f (Station-2 (In Side),Payra River)

Date

Salinity (ppt)


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Khal alignment and cross-section survey All the Khals inside the Polder@ 400 m intervalUsingEcho-sounder, DGPS &Level machine

Land level survey In polder 3, 30 and 43/2F @ 150 X 150 m grid

UsingTotal Station

-20 00

2

4

6

8

10

Distance in meter

educ

edL

e velinmP

W

D


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Water Flow Measurement Half-hourly dischargemeasurements for 13hours, oncein spring tide and once in neap

tideSep-2011, Jan-2012, Apr -2012UsingADCP, DGPS

POLDER-

30


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0.250.33 0.42 0.5 0.58 0.670.750.83-1000

-800

-600

-400-200

0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Water flow at Kazibacha : (29/09/2011)

Time

Water flow (m3/sec) Water Level (m PWD)

0.25 0.33 0.42 0.5 0.58 0.67 0.75 0.83-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

0

2

4

68

10

12


Time


SpringTide

NeapTide


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NeapTide

SpringTide

0.250.33

0.420.5

0.580.67

0.750.83

-1000

-800

-600

-400-200

0

0

246810

12


Time


0.250.33

0.420.5

0.580.67

0.750.83

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

0

2

4

68

10

12


Time

Water flow(m3/sec) Water Level (m PWD)


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Secondary Data Collection and Analysis:

19301950

19701990

2010

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Hardinge Bridge on the Ganges

LinearRegressionfor

LinearRegressionfor

LinearRegressionfor

Discharge (m3/s)

Increasing trend ofannual maximumflow

Decreasing trend ofannual minimum

flow

Trend Analysis of Ganges River Discharge


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Joint FieldVisit by G1,G2, G4, G525 Mar

2012

Bazarkhali

IRRI TestSite0.2 ppt(khal)

0.3 ppt(field)

Silted khalnear

ChowraRiver

Angulkataculvert0.2 ppt

(river)


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IRRI TestSite

1.3 ppt

(khal)1.5 ppt(field)

WorldfishTest Site

2.0 ppt (khal)

Culvert onKhal

3.5ppt (khal)

Near IWM WL

gauge5.9 ppt (khal)Polder-30

Joint FieldVisit by G1,G2, G4, G526 Mar2012

MaitbhangaVillage (low-lying area)

Water leveland salinitymonitoring

IWM WLgauge

8.2ppt (river)


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Joint FieldVisit by G1,G2, G4, G5

27 Mar 2012

Polder-3


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FieldVisits

Rotational cropping system:agriculture and aquaculture atDebhata

Dry season

9th June

2011

Shrimp ghers at ShannashirChak

Monsoon

16th Aug

2011

Internal canals to flush saline water to the ghers at Shannashir

Polder-3


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Polder-30

Blockage of khal bycross-dam

Sedimentation at outfallof regulator

Low lying area in


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Polder-43/2F

Siltation of khals and no regulator for flushing

Riverside

Countryside

Countryside

Riverside


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5. Literature Review:

Knowledge Gap:Selection of external drivers Developing future scenario with the externaldrivers

Effect of external drivers on water resources

Policies: National Water Policy and National Water Management Plan:identifies the region as one that needs urgent attention. Coastal Zone Policy and Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan

Completed and ongoing water management projects in thestudy area: Integrated Environmental Management: A Case Study on Shrimp-paddy Land Use Strategies in the Southwest of Bangladesh Khulna Jessore Drainage Rehabilitation Project (KJDRP) Southwest Area Integrated Water Resources Planning andManagement Integrated Planning for Sustainable Water Management (IPSWAM) Studies on past and present land use practices Studies related to climate change: including impact of sea level rise,

salinity intrusion and polder management


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Selection of External Drivers:

Experts

Researchers of G1,

G2, G3, G4

& G5 andother

projects

Farmersand

Fishers

Preliminary List ofExternal

Drivers

CommunityConsultatio

n

LiteratureReview and

Interactionwith G4partners

Triangulation

Workshop

KeyExternalDrivers

andRanking

OverallMethodology

Questionnaire Survey

Preliminary List of


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Population growthDietary patterns of the populationEconomic development (change in per capita income) in the coastal

zone.Market value of agriculture productsWater policy (national and regional)Water pricing and insuranceChange in water governance and institutions

Water sharing mechanisms between the riparian parts of the basin.Land-use change including increase in area under rice cultivationUrbanizationIndustrializationChanges in aquaculture intensificationWater use changeChange in water management practicesSea level rise due to climate changeChange in precipitation due to climate changeChange in temperature due to climate changeWater infrastructure developmentChange in trans-boundary flow

Preliminary List ofExternal Drivers

Questionnaire


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Name

Age

Gender Male Female

Occupation

Please indicate how do you think the external drivers will affect water resourcesof your area/coastal region of Ganges basin ?

Sl External Drivers

Score (1-5)

Remarks1.

No

2.To avery

limited

extent

3.To amod

erate

extent

4.To asigni

ficant

extent

5.To averysigni

ficant

extent

1 Do you think the pressure ofpopulation growth on waterresources will continue in thefuture?

2 Is market value an importantfactor in crop divesification?

3 Will sea level rise reducefreshwater availability and landavailability for agriculture?

4 Will decrease of rainfall in the dryseason and increase in the

monsoon renderadverse impact onwater resources?

QuestionnaireSurvey

Results of


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Pe

rcentage

Results ofQuestionnaire Survey

%100=riversforallthedTotalscore

riverespecificdScoreforthPercentage

Community


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Place: Fultola,

BatiaghataParticipant: Farmers(3 women, 20 men)

Priorit

y

Issue

1 Polder embankment overtopping because of rising water level and

river sedimentation

2 Recurrent water logging due to poor drainage system and river

sedimentation, in future this problem will become more severe

3 WMA is active in the area but there is a fund crisis

4 Drainage congestion due to khal leasing and poor management of

khal and regulators5 Reduction of yield of sesame and rice crop due to poor drainage

6 Increase of salinity level in the rivers and khals due to decrease of

sweet water from upstream

7 Participants believe that Farakka Barrage is among other causes ofriver sedimentation

FGD at Polder 30

Place: Kismat-Fultola,

BatiaghataParticipant: Fishermen(6 women, 9 men)

Priorit

y

Issue

1 Loss of connectivity between river and floodplain/ human intervention

2 Obstruction of khals/rivers by net-pata, charu or other obstruction

3 Beels and other fish habitats have been destroyed4 Connectivity of the khals have been lost, hampers fish migration5 Fertilizers and pesticides destroyed fish6 Population growth is a major problem, increase of fishers decrease fish

production7 Navigability of the rivers have decreased8 Leasing of BWDB drainage khals and illegal khal encroachments9 Fishing the fish with eggs

10 Market accessibility. Fishers have to sell fish to the middleman at alower price

11 Increase in salinity of the river water attracts crocodiles which is a

threat to the fishers

CommunityConsultation

FGD t P ld 3

Community


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FGD at Polder 3

Place: Nalta UnionParishad, KaliganjParticipant: Farmer(2 women, 8 men)

Priority

Issue

1 Water logging is the main problem in the area. It hampers

rice production. Drainage khals are often obstructed.

2 There are unplanned ghers in the area which blocked the

drainage fron agricultural land causing water logging.

There have been unplanned human habitats/ Land usechange

3 Last two years were extremely dry so that salinity was

much higher than before4 Polders are overtopped during spring tide5 The increase of fertilizer price hampers rice production

Place: Bara Shimla

Union Parishad,KaliganjParticipant: Fishermen(15 men)

Priorit

y

Issue

1 Scarcity of drinking water availability2 Unplanned ghers (mainly for fishing purposes)3 Drainage congestion is also a severe problem in the

area

4 Due to sedimentation of the riverbeds drainagecongestion has been increased. They blamed Farakka

barrage for sedimentation of riverbeds5 Increased rainfall is another reason is for water logging

6 Polder overtopping and breaching is a major problem in

the area


FGD t P ld

Community


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FGD at Polder43/2F

Place: Gulishakhali

Union Parishad, AmtaliParticipant: Farmer (7women, 15 men)

Priorit

y

Issue

1 Inadequate embankment height and less number of cyclone

shelter2 Scarcity of Water in Dry Seasons for irrigation and household

works

3 Insufficient Water Control Structures4 Permanent Leasing of khals5 Insufficient Linkage among khals due to less number of

culverts on roads inside polder6 Improper Irrigation for high and low lands7 Coordination Problem in Between Govt. Officials and Local

People



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TriangulationWorkshop

Group-

1

Group-2

Group-

3

Group-4


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Triangulation Workshop

R k G 1


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Triangulation WorkshopGroup Discussion Results

Rank Group-31 Change in

transboundary flow2 Population growth

3 Land use changeincluding increase in

area under rice

cultivation4 Climate change5 Change in water

governance and

Rank Group-2

1

Change in Trans-

boundary Flow

2

Change in Water

Management Practices

3 Water Use Change

4

Change in Water

Governance andInstitutions

5 Land-use Change

Rank Group-11 Change in

transboundary flow and

sharing mechanism

2 Population growth3 Water infrastructure &

Management4 Land use change5 Water and land policy,

governance andinstitution

6 Sea level rise& water

quality

Rank Group-4

1 Trans-boundary Flow

2 Change in Water

Management Practice

3 Population Growth4 Land Use Change

5 Sea Level Rise

6 Water Infrastructure

Development

7 Urbanization8 Changes in Water Use


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Final List of ExternalDrivers

External Drivers Rank

Change in transboundary flow 1

Population growth 2

Change in water management practices 3

Land use change 4

Climate change (including precipitation, temperature)and sea level rise 5

Change in water governance and institutions (includingpolicy change) 6

Water use change 7

Water infrastructure development 8

Urbanization 9


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Climate Change Projections:

Temperature Precipitation

Sea level rise

Polder-


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Fallow land inRabi season

Freshwateravailability inperipheral rivers(0.2-0.3ppt in late

March)

IRRIexperimental

site

Opportunity of increasing crop intensity from 100/200% to 300%

by infrastructure development and improved watermanagement (G2, G3 and G4 can work together)

Polder-43/2F

Silted upkhal

Pl f th 2012 2013


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Plan for the year 2012-2013

No.

Activity- Milestone 2012 2013

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q10Project Implementation

0.2 Project progress reports 1 Field visits, interaction meetings, data collection, literature review, driver

identification, workshop, training1.4 Collection and analysis of hydrological data 3 Assessment of cross-boundary flow, effect of landuse change and population

growth3.1Development, calibration and validation of SWAT model for assessing

baseline condition3.2Projection of climate change condition using SWAT model 3.2Development, calibration &validation of WEAP model for assessing

baseline condition3.3Projection of population growth and land-use for future condition

using WEAP model

3.4Computation of cross-boundary flow

4 Simulation of scenarios and assessment of anticipated changes on waterresources

4.4Assessment of baseline water flow in coastal region of the Gangesriver

4.5Assessment of water flow in the Ganges river for external drivers(scenarios)

4.6Assessment of baseline salinity in study area & selected polders

4.7Assessment of salinity in study area & selected polders for externaldrivers (scenarios)


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Collection of data on land use and hydrology in the entireGanges basin

Development of future scenarios based on external drivers

Development, calibration and validation of SWAT model in theentire Ganges Basin

Simulation of rainfall and land-use change for recent years for

assessing trans-boundary flow, sub-catchment flow and waterbalance at different reaches of the catchment

Assessment of effect of land-use change on water resources for2020, 2030, 2050

Assessment of effect of population growth/demographic

changes on water resources


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Study area: Ganges Basin


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Methodology for the EntireGanges Basin

Use Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) to simulate hydrology for the

Ganges Basin. Delineate sub-basins

Input: landuse, soil, and weather data

Calibrate from 1995 to 2000 ( Tentative,based on available data)

Validate from 2001 to 2005 ( Tentative, basedon available data)

Soil Water AssessmentTool (SWAT)


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Continuation of literature review to find the availableknowledge and knowledge gaps

Development of future scenarios based on external drivers

Downscaling of GCMs using RCM models and use of availablesimulation results for climate change projections

Finalization of the climate change projections

Assessment of impacts and development of adaptationstrategies

River morphology and future morphological changes


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Continuation data collection and analysis

Collection of relevant study reports and review Development of future scenarios based on external drivers

Plan for improved water infrastructure

Outscaling of research results


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Continuation of surface water salinity, water level and waterflow data collection

Development of scenarios based on drivers throughparticipatory method:

Transboundary flow + climate change ?

Water management + governance + Infrastructure development

? Calibration and validation of flow and salinity models

Establishment of baseline condition

Simulation of the scenarios

Assessment of impact of different scenarios on water resources Adaptation strategies


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The Ganges Water Treaty

Water available atFarakka

Share of India Share of Bangladesh

70,000 cusec or less 50% 50%

70,000-75,000 cusec Residual flow 35,000 cusec

Greater than 75,000cusec

40,000 cusec Residual flow

Hydrologic Changes in the Gorai


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Hydrologic Changes in the GoraiSystem

Mean 1-day low flow: Decreased from 146 to 35 cumec postFB period Increased to 51 cumec after GWT


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THANK

YOU


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Water levelmeasurement

StaffGauge

Pressu

reGauge

PressureGauge:-Automatic

water level datain 10 mininterval

Staff Gauge:- Manual water

level data in1hour interval

Salinitymeasurement

In peripheralrivers:-Salinity is

measured twice(during highwater slack andlow water slack)in alternate days

presentation of g4 by mr. zahir & ms. farhana, iwm

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