Finding Common Ground: Mutual US-Russian Concerns in Syria

Presented by:Ekaterina Kozlova, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University)Elliott Cheresh, Johns Hopkins University Anton Natarov, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University)Darya Makarenko, The University of Alabama

Background

~70,000 killed

2.5-3 million internally displaced

~1.2 million refugees

March 2011 - present

The Crisis Within the Syrian Borders

Supreme Kurdish Committee (SKC)

Prominent Actors in the Opposition

Kurdish Nation

al Council

KurdishDemocrati

c Union Party

Ebril Declaration

-Internally divided-Lacks genuine ground

presence-Detached from Kurdish

youth

-Internally cohesive-Has an established

presence-Rejects any type of foreign

intervention

National Coalition for Syrian and Opposition

Forces

Prominent Actors in the Revolution

SNC FSA

Al-Nusra Front

Other Opposition

Groups-Requests support without military intervention

-Has clear plan for role in transition

-Tension with FSA

-Inclusive militia of SA deserters

-Sees itself as secular protector of Syria

-Alleged Al-Qaeda links

-Strong community outreach

-Co-opting infrastructure to fund operations

The Suffering Economic Climate of Syria

GDP growth

3.2% in 2010

-3% in 2012

Investment

$14 bn in 2010

$10 bn in 2012

Unemployment

8.3 % in 2010

13.4 % in 2012

Inflation

30% in 2012

4.8% in 2010

Syria and US-Russian Relations

Regional Security Concerns and International Implications

Sunni Extremists

Regional Security Concerns and International Implications

Chechen Fighters

Regional Security Concerns and International Implications

Insecurity

- Insurgency in the North Caucuses- Sunni Public Opinion

A strong stance is hard to convert into concrete influence

Moscow Perspective

NeutralStance

Recent ShiftSupport for

Assad

- Lack of secular replacement for Assad- Low legitimacy of opposition- Security Council Stalemate

US Perspective

Alternatives:

Tactical changes, strategic continuity

Room for compromise?

Key but “distant” players

CONCLUSION

Policy Proposals

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