presidente jose sergio gabrielli de azevedo. apresentação durante o evento nor-shipping, oslo
TRANSCRIPT
CEOJOSÉ SÉRGIO GABRIELLI DE AZEVEDO
May 23rd, 2011
FRANCE
French Institute of Petroleum
1
DISCLAIMER
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: DISCLAIMER
The presentation may contain forward-looking statements about future events within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are not based on historical facts and are not assurances of future results. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect the Company’s current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that these statements are only projections and may differ materially from actual future results or events. Readers are referred to the documents filed by the Company with the SEC, specifically the Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, including, among other things, risks relating to general economic and business conditions, including crude oil and other commodity prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates, uncertainties inherent in making estimates of our oil and gas reserves including recently discovered oil and gas reserves, international and Brazilian political, economic and social developments, receipt of governmental approvals and licenses and our ability to obtain financing.
We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or for any other reason. Figures for 2010 on are estimates or targets.
All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement, and you should not place reliance on any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation.
NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that we are not permitted to present in documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because such terms do not qualify as proved, probable or possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation S-X.
PRIMARY DEMAND FOR ENERGY – BREAKDOWN BY FUEL (MM TOE)
• Loss of oil relative participation in primary energy demand• Significant growth of biofuels and other renewable, driven by
technological advances
• Low gas prices may result in higher gas participation over time
16.590
2007 2030
12.271
16.882
2008 2030
Average Annual Growth (% p.y.)
Traditional Biomass
Other Renewable*
Biofuels
Hidro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
Sustainable Development
Business as Usual
Sustainable Development
Business as Usual
0,4%0,7%
33%
21%
27%
6%2%9%
29%
22%
25%
7%3%
3,5% 1,3%
30%
22%
6%3%2,2%9%
1% 10%
+0,96%
+1,5%
+1,6%
+1,2%
+2,0%
+5,8%
+6,4%
+1,0%
+0,72%
+1,6%
+0,9%
+1,9%
+2,4%
+7,2%
+8,5%
+1,4%
28%
1,3%
1,4%
•Wind, Solar (PV e CSP), Geothermal, Marine (Tide and Wave)
•Source: 2008 – IEA ; 2030 –Petrobras’ Scenarios
3
ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE INSTITUTIONS, NATURAL GAS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE FILLING THE GAP LEFT BY THE CURRENT OFFLINE NUCLEAR CAPACITY
PIRACredit SuisseBarclays CapitalSocieté GénéraleWoodMackensie
Possible outcomes to the mix of fossil energy that will substitute offline nuclear capacity
Source: GE-MC/MKT/PREÇOS e GE-MC/SGN/CGNL
Assumptions: It is expected that coal plants will be restored to full capacity. Capacity Factor: 75% nuclear; time horizon 12 months
Oil Products, 40%
Natural Gas; 40%
Coal; 20%
Substituição
Oil Products; 39%
Natural Gas; 47%
Coal; 14%
Substituição
Oil Products;50%
Natural Gas; 39%
Coal; 11%
Substituição
Oil Products,30%
Natural Gas; 50%
Coal; 20%
Substituição
Oil Products;70%
Natural Gas; 20%
Coal; 10%
Substituição
Tokai Daini; 1.100
FukushinaDaini; 4.400
Fukushima Daiishi; 4.696
Onagawa; 2.174
Offline Nuclear Capacity (MW)81500 Gw/h – 75%
Substitution
4
Substitution Substitution Substitution Substitution
Japanese spot LNG prices lower than oil in an energy equivalent basisNatural gas import infrastructure not much affected and already operating with significant spare capacity 40 regasification terminals and a big storage capacity (35 day of demand)
ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN ONGOING TRANSITION ON DEMAND GROWTH DYNAMICS, OECD MEMBERS STILL ARE THE BIGGEST OIL‐CONSUMING COUNTRIES
Note: each circle represents the relative size of each country’s oil demand.Source: PIRA
Biggest Oil‐Consuming Countries – 2010
USA
China
Japan
India
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Brazil
Germany
CanadaKoreaMexico
France
Iran
UnitedKingdom
Italy
Spain
‐6%
‐4%
‐2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
‐2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
Annual GDP Growth, 2005‐2010 (%)
Ann
ualO
ilDem
andGrowth,
2005
‐201
0 (%
)
5
2.4
28
20102006 2007 2008 2009
26
28
23
18
1.20.41.6 2.4
28
20102006 2007 2008 2009
26
28
23
18
1.20.41.6
Colombia ‐ Production(billion liters) Brazil B5;
E20
Argentina2010 ‐ B7; E3
2011/ 2012‐ B10; E5
Colombia
E8, B8
Uruguay2012: B52015: E5
Peru – B22011‐ B5; E7‐E8
THE REGION HOLDS SUFFICIENT NATURAL RESOURCES TO THE SUSTAINABLEPRODUCTION OF FOOD AND BIOFUELS
Brazil ‐ Production (billion liters)
EcuadorB2,5; E10
Panama E10
Costa Rica‐max E8; B2
Chile – B2‐B5E2‐E5
Bolivia – B2,52015‐ B20
Mexico and Caribbean Production (billion liters)
ParaguayB5; E18‐E24
• Biofuels industry contributes to the rural sector development and to employment generation;
• In Brazil, agro‐ecological zones delimit the areas for soy, cane, and palm. From the 7% of feasible and authorized area available to the production of cane in Brazil, only 1% is used.
BiodieselEthanol
6
Argentina ‐ Production (billion liters)
20102008 2009
0.60.4 0.5
20102008 2009
0.60.4 0.5
20102008 2009
0.40.2
0.30.3
20102008 2009
0.40.2
0.30.3
Main Biofuels Producers and Government Programs
Source: consolidated data based on various sources (ADP Renewables, ÚNICA, ANP and others)
20102007 2008 2009
0.4 0.8 1.4 0.32.2
ASIA, LATIN AMERICA AND MIDDLE EAST HAVE THE LARGEST PROJECTS OF NEW REFINERIES AND CAPACITY EXPANSIONS
• The new refineries have large scale, high complexity and are fully prepared to process heavy crudes. Most of them are focused in maximizing low sulfur distillates, objective achieved through the use of delayed coking and hydrocracking units.
(Totals in kbpd)
Source: Pira, Petrobras, 2011
Refining Capacity additions (2011‐2016)
437703
153
1.755
736
1.997
3.204
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Asia Middle East NorthAmerica
Latin America Europe Former SovietUnion
Africa
New Refineries
Expansions
7
325180
Shell &Aramco
2012
Main capacity expansion projects in the world 2011‐2016 (kbpd)
Project Starting Year
PBF Energy Valero
2011 2013
75
200180
Russia and Europe
201620142011
140400
300
Asia
200
182178
Latin America580
2013/152013/14
110Africa
20
300400
Middle East
2014 20152013
375
Source: Pira, Petrobras, 2011
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN EXPECTED REFINING PROJECTS IN THE WORLD ARE EXPORT‐ORIENTED, IN LATIN AMERICA AND IN ASIA, THE LARGEST PROJECTS ARE ORIENTED TO THE DOMESTIC MARKET.
PDVSAEcopetrolPetrobras
2013/14/15
Turcas &Socar
RosneftTatneft
Iran Oil Aramco & Sinopec
Aramco & TotalSonangolPetrochina
Petrochina IndianOil PetroVietnam
2012 2016
2012/16 2014 2015
North America
8
SOUTH AMERICA IS NOT A MAIN SHIPPING ROUTE, BUT IT WILL INCREASE ITS OIL EXPORTS. ASIA WILL BECOME A MAJOR OIL CONSUMER, LIKE EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA
Source: PIRA (Maps). IEA/WEO 2010 (Graphs)9
0,5
1,6
0,3
1,92,2
1,4
0,4
0,2
0,3 0,4
0,6
1,7
1,2
1,8
9,5
0,4
3,0
0,1
0,5
1,4
1,0
0,70,2
1,90,7
Major world oil flows (MMBpd - 2009)
Balance of Oil (Exports / - Imports)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Nor
th A
m.
(incl
.Mex
ico)
Latin
Am
eric
a
Euro
pe
Mid
dle
East
Afr
ica
Cas
pian
and
Rus
sia
Chi
na
Asi
a (n
on-
Chi
na)
Oth
ers
MM BPD
2009 2020
9
FSU STAYS AS A MAJOR EXPORTER OF DIESEL AND FUEL OIL. NON‐CHINESE ASIA INCREASES ITS IMPORTS OF OIL PRODUCTS.
Source: PIRA (Maps). PETROBRAS (Graphs) 10
140
60
540
150
65
200130
100
60
720
140
170
130
130
40
240
200
100
230
60 10
1020
160
105
30
10
30
300
320
80
370
110
250
200
50
110
Gasoline JetDiesel/Gasoil Fuel Oil
70
Main Products' Net Exports/(Imports)
-1200
-800
-400
0
400
800
1200
1600
USA andCanada
LatinAmerica
Europe MiddleEast
Africa FSU China Asia(withoutChina)
kBPD
2010 2020
Major world oil product
flows (MMBpd - 2009)
• Tonne miles more than tripled to China, while seaborne imports just doubled. Its fast growth demanded fast diversification of sources from even more distant places.
• China’s strong imports also pressure other Asian countries to diversify their imports.
• India also demands new sources, diversifying imports to further regions, such as West Africa.
• New refining in Asia/Pacific implies in less needs of long‐haul imports of products, but some long‐haul exports may remain, from India and Arabian Gulf to Europe or to the US.
* Long‐haul = more than 5,000 Nautical Miles• Clarkson Research, February 2011
WITH NEW REFINING IN ASIA, LONG‐HAUL* CRUDE ROUTES BECOME MORE RELEVANT TOWARDS THE EAST, BUT LONG‐HAUL ROUTES FOR PRODUCTS MAY WEAKEN
Estimated Tanker Demand
Vessels under 200,000 dwt
Vessels above 200,000 dwt
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Million DWT
11
China plans to reduce its dependency on the Malacca Strait, but volumes shipped through the strait will remain high
• Myanmar oil pipeline (2013/2014): 440 kbpd
• Kazakhstan‐China oil pipeline (2013): 400 kbpd
• Russia‐China oil pipeline (Present: 300 kbpd; expansion by 2015: 600 kbpd)
• Total from pipeline options: 1440 kbpd, are only 23% of expected imports from China (2015) –6400 kbpd (IEA 2010)
Map: Current and future routes for China´s oil and natural gas imports (IEA 2011)
THE INDIAN OCEAN IS EVER MORE CRITICAL TO OIL AND PRODUCTS SHIPPING There are strategic risks in the strait of malacca and piracy in the gulf of aden
12
13
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
(Em
MM
bpd
)
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2010, EIA International Energy Outlook 2010
WORLD DEMAND FOR OIL
GLOBAL LIQUIDS DEMAND
Existing production
Challenges ofsupply
2020
2030
43
65
48
78
MM bpd
MM bpd
o Perspectives: investments in oil production will be necessary
• Incorporation of new discoveries
• Alternatives energy source
• Increase of energy efficiency
•increases to Oil in Place or recovery factor
Capacity additionrequired
Project decline in the production
Scenario: Business as Usual
Scenario: Sustainable Development
INTEGRATED VALUE CHAIN
Our main lines: Key Statistics and market position (2010)
Exploration and Production
• 15.3 Bn boe of 1P(SPE)
• 2.3 mm boedproduction
•98.5% of brazilianproduction
• 20% of deepwaterproduction
RTM (incl. Petrochemicals)
• 12 refineries
• 2.0 mm bbl/d refining capacity
• 11.2 mm t/y nominal petrochemicalcapacity2)
Retail
• 7,306 servicestations
•38.8% market share
Gas and Power
• 14,246 km of pipelines
•Participation in 20 of27 discos of gas in Brazil
• 5,944 MW of Electricity Generationcapacity
International
• 25 countries
• 0.7 Bn boe of 1P(SPE)
• 245 mil boed of production
• 281 mil bbl/d refiningcapacity
•Petrochemical, Gas and Power activities
Biofuels
• 3 new biodiesel plants
• Ethanol: newmarkets
• Responsible for10% of brazilianethanol exports.
Note: (1) Includes Corporative and Elimination; (2) Through Braskem and Quattor
E&PRTMG&PPetroquímica
53%
33%
2%1%2%8%
1%
Business Plan 2010‐2014US$ 224.1 Bn
MarketingBiofuelsCorporative Brasil
95%
Internacional5%
Opportunities: Economic GrowthGeopolitical stabilityHydrocarbon potentialBiofuels
Challenges:Critical resources (goods and services, human resources)FinancingEnergy Integration
14
1. 5 0 0 1. 6 8 4 2 . 0 0 42 5 2
1 . 1 0 9
6 2 3
3 3 42 7 4
3 5 1 6 31 4 4
2 0 3
1 7 6
2 2
1 2 0
1 2 8
1 0 19 6
2002 2005 2010 2014 2020
Oil Production - Brazil Gas Production - Brazil Oil Production - International Gas Production - International
GROWING PRODUCTION FULLY SUPPORTED BY DISCOVERIES
Pre‐Salt
Petrobras Total Production (000 b/d)
241
12,131
Proven Reserves 2002
14,913
Proven Reserves 2005
15,986
Proven Reserves 2010
5,000
Transfer of Rights
29,000‐31,000
Total Resource Base
HigherEstimates9,600
Lower estimates8,100
• 18th consecutive years of fully replacing the production (229% in 2010)
• R/P ratio 18.4 years (SPE Criteria)
1,078
1,809 2,217 2,583
5,382
3,9074.5% p.y. 7.6%
CAGR
...
Potential Recoverable (Lula, Cernambi, Iara, Guará and
Whales Park)
Petrobras Total Reserves (bln boe) ‐ SPE Criteria
...
3,9502,980
15
TRENDS IN LATIN AMERICA OIL PRODUCTION REFLECT THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT IN EACH COUNTRY
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
MMb/d
Latin American Oil Production
Arg.
Brazil
Colo.
Ecu.
Peru
Trin.
Ven.
Mex.
Source: BP 2010 Statistical Review
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Bcf/d
Latin American Gas Production
Arg.
Bolivia
Brazil
Colo.
Trin.
Ven.
Mex.
Source: BP 2010 Statistical Review
16
THE ACCESS TO BRAZILIAN E&P
Source: IHS CERA
PresaltOn Hold
Mature Basins
New Frontiers/ High Potential
17
18
PRE-SALT SUSTAINABILITY
EnvironmentalEnvironmental
FinancialFinancial
SocialSocial
Ex: Commitment to giveenvironmental friendly destinationto the carbon dioxide producedfrom Pre‐Salt reservoirs, ...
Ex:• Lula Pilot breakeven in the US$ 35‐45/bbl oil price range.• Consortia sactioned procurementof 13 FPSOs
Create jobs and income
Reinforce internal market
Strengthen Brazilian economy
Local content
Expanded supply capacity
New suppliers
Lower prices
More equipment availability
Increased flexibility
TECHNOLOGICAL CHALLENGES
• Qualification of flexible risers for water depth of 2,200m (7,218 ft), considering CO2 and high pressure
• Qualification of flexible flowlines for high pressure gas Injection (about 8,000 psi)
• Wax deposition in long pipelines
• Scaling control
• Temperature management along the subsea lines
• Installation and operation of uncoupled rigid risers
• Operation of satellite WAG injection wells (avoid hydrate formation)
SubseaSubsea
• Mooring in water depths of 2,200 m
• Interaction with the riser´s system
• Scenario for platforms with direct access to the wells (SPAR, FPDSO)
• CO2 separation facilities; compression, compression for reinjection
• Plant modularization for deck space/cargo optimization
• Standardization of most systems in the FPSO
FPUsFPUs
• Definition of large reservoir facies variations and fluid contacts from seismic data
• Internal reservoir characterization, with focus on the • heterogeneities that impact fluid flow
• Secondary recovery: technical feasibility of water injection,• WAG‐HC and WAG‐CO2
• Feasibility of 4D seismics under the recovery methods
• Rock‐fluids interactions: impact on the potential of scale• precipitation, on geomechanics of the surrounding rocks
• Avoid flow concentration in high permeability layers
• Improvement of the waterflood performance in mixed wet• carbonates
• Efficient control of inorganic scaling
ReservoirReservoir
• Construction of high angle wells, deviated into the salt zone
• Definition of the best strategy of well stimulation
• Quality of cement jobs and resistance to CO2
• Well integrity
• Penetration rate in the microbial carbonate reservoir
• Performance of intelligent completion
• New alloys to reduce costs of well materials
• New procedures to reduce well drilling and completion• duration
• Performance improvement of the new rigs
Drilling and CompletionDrilling and Completion
19
BRAZILIAN DEMAND AND REFINING CAPACITY
20
1.81
1 2.47
9 3.22
4
4.91
0
3.07
0
2.11
0
2.00
4
1.97
1
1.79
8
1.79
2
1.93
3
2.14
7
2.20
8
2.49
3 3.19
7
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
2009 (*) 2010 (*) 2011 2015 2020
Oil Production Throughput Oil Production Demand(*) Dados do realizado para 2009 e 2010.
Mil bpd Refinaria Abreu e Lima
(RNE)230 mil bpd(Dez-2012)
COMPERJ(1º trem)
165 mil bpd(Set-2013)
PREMIUM I(1ª trem)
300 mil bpd(Out-2014)
PREMIUM I(2ª trem)
300 mil bpd(Dez-2016)
PREMIUM II300 mil bpd(Dez-2017)
COMPERJ(2º trem)
165 mil bpd(Jan-2018)
Ethanol• Increase of Petrobras participation in Brazil's
ethanol industry and bioenergy; investments focus on developing a new generation of biofuels and cogeneration power:
• Acquisition of 45.7% of Guarani, the 4th largest processor of sugar cane in the country, and agreement to reach a stake of up to 49%;
• Acquisition of 40.4% of Usina Total; • Strategic partnership with Grupo São
Martinho, creating a new company, called Nova Fronteira (49% BR).
StrategyAct globally, on biofuels production, with relevant participation in biodiesel and ethanol bussiness
BIO DIESEL
ETHANOLINVESTMENTS 2010‐2014:
US$ 3.5 Billion
2,0
0,4
0,4
0,7
Ethanol Biodiesel R&D Logistics
Thou
s. m
³/year
Ethanol Exports
1,055
449
2010 2014
+135%
2.600
886
2010 2014
+193%
747
507
2010 2014
+47%
Ethanol ProductionProduction Capacity of
Biodiesel in Brazil
BIOFUELS TARGETS AND INVESTMENTS 2010‐2014Continued expansion and integration with oil products
21
Date: February 2011
HUMAN RESOURCES PETROBRAS
22
48%48%
51%51%
3%3%
46%46%
Time in Time in companycompany ((averageaverage): 14.6 ): 14.6 yearsyears
Age (Age (averageaverage): 42 ): 42 yearsyears
Strategic Remuneration
Internal development and external attraction
Leadership development
Knowledge Management
Actions in HR
50 THEMATIC NETWORKS WITH 80 INSTITUTIONS50 THEMATIC NETWORKS WITH 80 INSTITUTIONS
ANPANP
TechnicalTechnicalScientificScientific
CommitteeCommitteePartnerPartner
institutioninstitution 11PartnerPartner
institutioninstitution 55
PartnerPartnerinstitutioninstitution 22 PartnerPartner
institutioninstitution 33
PartnerPartnerinstitutioninstitution 44
MCTMCTFINEPFINEPCNPqCNPq
-- PhysicalPhysical and and HumanHuman InfrastructureInfrastructure-- HumanHuman ResourcesResources TrainingTraining-- R & D R & D ProjectsProjects-- TechnologyTechnology ServicesServices
UNIVERSITIESUNIVERSITIES
INCUBATORSINCUBATORS
RESEARCH RESEARCH INSTITUTESINSTITUTES
SUPPLIERSSUPPLIERS
CENPESCENPES(manager)(manager)
TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
23
DEMANDS OF HUMAN RESOURCES ‐ BUSINESS PLAN 2010‐2014
24
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016200920082007
146 Supply BoatsNew Stationary Production UnitsPromef IIFreight 19 vesselsRefinery Premium IIRefinery Premium IComperj and RNEST replanningNew projects
Business Plan 2008 – 201228 Drilling Rigs
212.638New Demands
BP 2010-14
78.402Qualified
Professionals
PETROBRAS CHALLENGES
25
Capacity to execute a huge portfolio project
Strength and reliability of supply chain
Resource management and efficiency
Human Resources challenges
Funding requirements