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Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation October 2015

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Page 1: Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation . October 2015 . ... Q3 2015 Financial and Operational Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $30 million versus $19

Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation October 2015

Page 2: Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation . October 2015 . ... Q3 2015 Financial and Operational Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $30 million versus $19

Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information

• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.

• This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.

• Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information.

• Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

• Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form, annual and quarterly MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

• During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial information will be presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s annual and quarterly MD&A.

2

Notices

Page 3: Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation . October 2015 . ... Q3 2015 Financial and Operational Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $30 million versus $19

Q3 2015 Financial and Operational Highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA of $30 million versus $19 million in both Q2 2015 and Q3 2014

• Margin improvement gains of $34 million YTD

• Record quarterly production at three mills

• NA manufacturing costs decreased by 14% YoY due to increased productivity,

lower raw material use and resin prices, fewer maintenance shuts and weaker

Canadian dollar

• Captured merger synergies of $5 million YTD ($20 million annualized); on track

to reach 50% run rate on $45 million annualized target by year-end

• Declared CAD $0.10/share quarterly dividend payable December 21, 2015

3

Note: Results reflect combined performance following completion of merger with Ainsworth and prior comparatives have been restated

Page 4: Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation . October 2015 . ... Q3 2015 Financial and Operational Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $30 million versus $19

US Housing Starts

4 (1) Based on US housing economist forecasts

Source: US Department of Commerce, except where otherwise noted

0.61

0.78

0.93 1.00

1.10

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F

September YTD data: housing starts up 12% and permits up 13%

(1)

(in millions)

Page 5: Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation . October 2015 . ... Q3 2015 Financial and Operational Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $30 million versus $19

North American Benchmark OSB Prices

5

US

$/M

sf-7

/16”

216 216

193 193

204

177 181

175 174 176

187

172

159 152

158

100

150

200

250

Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015

North Central

South East

Western Canada

Source: Random Lengths

Spread SE vs NC 39 35 18 19 28 Spread WC vs NC 29 44 34 41 46

Page 6: Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation . October 2015 . ... Q3 2015 Financial and Operational Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $30 million versus $19

European Indicative OSB Prices(1)

6

€/m

3

(1) European indicative average OSB price represents the gross delivered price to the largest Continental market

258

248

232

218 220

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2014

Page 7: Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation . October 2015 . ... Q3 2015 Financial and Operational Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $30 million versus $19

(US $ millions, except per share information)

Q3 Q2 Q3 YTD YTD 2015 2015 2014 2015 2014

Sales 378 365 409 1,094 1,229 Adjusted EBITDA North America 22 11 11 44 76 Europe 11 10 11 28 36 Unallocated (3) (2) (3) (8) (11) Total 30 19 19 64 101

Reported loss (9) (23) (29) (69) (13) Adjust for: Ainsworth merger transaction costs - 1 1 8 1 Costs to achieve Ainsworth merger synergies - 3 - 4 - Costs on terminated LP acquisition - - - - 2 Costs on early extinguishment of Ainsworth Notes - 25 - 25 - Revaluation loss on Ainsworth Notes - - 28 23 26 Reported income tax expense (recovery) 3 (22) (15) (33) (17) Income tax recovery at statutory rate(1) 2 4 4 11 -

Adjusted loss (4) (12) (11) (31) (1)

Adjusted EPS, basic and diluted (0.05) (0.14) (0.13) (0.36) (0.01)

Financial Summary

7 (1) Represents Canadian combined federal and provincial statutory rate

Page 8: Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation . October 2015 . ... Q3 2015 Financial and Operational Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $30 million versus $19

Adjusted EBITDA Variance

8

(US $ millions)

Q3 2015 Q3 2015 YTD 2015 vs. vs. vs.

Q2 2015 Q3 2014 YTD 2014 Adjusted EBITDA – current period $ 30 $ 30 $ 64

Adjusted EBITDA – comparative period 19 19 101

Variance 11 11 (37)

Mill nets(1) - (34) (120)

Volume(2) 5 14 14

Key input prices(3) (3) 8 26

Key input usage(3) 4 4 10

Mill profit share and bonus - - 1

Other operating costs and foreign exchange(4) 5 19 32

Total 11 11 (37)

1) The mill nets variance represents the change in realized pricing across all products. Mill nets are calculated as sales (net of outbound freight costs) divided by shipment volume.

2) The volume variance represents the impact of shipment volume changes across all products. 3) The key inputs include wood fibre, resin, wax and energy. 4) The other operating costs and foreign exchange category covers all remaining variances including labour and benefits, and maintenance.

Page 9: Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation . October 2015 . ... Q3 2015 Financial and Operational Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $30 million versus $19

Liquidity and Capital Resources

9

(US $ millions, except per share information)

Q3 Q2 Q3 YTD YTD

2015 2015 2014 2015 2014 Cash provided by (used for) operating activities $ 23 $ (3) $ 34 $ (32) $ 8

Cash provided by (used for) operating activities per share 0.27 (0.04) 0.40 (0.38) 0.09

Operating working capital 145 151 121

Investment in property, plant and equipment & intangible assets

15 15 35 43 88

Page 10: Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation . October 2015 . ... Q3 2015 Financial and Operational Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $30 million versus $19

Balance Sheet

10

(US $ millions, unless otherwise noted)

Bank Covenant

Sep 26, 2015

Jun 27, 2015

Dec 31, 2014(1)

Sep 27, 2014(1)

Long-term debt, principal value $ 755 $ 755 $ 440 $ 440

Add: Other long-term debt(2) 44 50 - -

Less: Cash and cash equivalents (2) (10) (25) (54)

Net debt 797 795 415 386

Less: Other long-term debt(2) (44) (50) - -

Add: Letters of credit 5 4 3 3

Net debt for financial covenant purposes 758 749 418 389

Tangible net worth

722 738 404 429

Net debt to capitalization, book basis max. 65% 51% 50% 51% 48%

Liquidity of $323 million = $2 million in cash + $321 million in unused credit lines

(1) Not restated for the merger and are the originally disclosed amounts

(2) Drawings under A/R securitization program (carved out of Net debt for financial covenant purposes)

Min. $450 post merger $250 pre merger

Page 11: Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation . October 2015 . ... Q3 2015 Financial and Operational Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $30 million versus $19

Appendices

Page 12: Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation . October 2015 . ... Q3 2015 Financial and Operational Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $30 million versus $19

OSB Prices Strong Over the Cycle

12

Appendices

Historical North Central Benchmark OSB Price

Source: Random Lengths

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Annu

al A

vera

ge N

C Pr

ice

US$

per

Msf

7/1

6"

15-year average

Q1 261 132 163 175 423 364 285 145 137 154 212 198 203 417 219 193

Q2 240 190 159 215 443 297 238 156 179 146 295 173 235 347 219 193

Q3 171 180 159 381 351 303 181 177 201 178 180 184 313 252 216 204

Q4 155 140 156 401 264 317 166 165 170 172 191 190 332 245 216

Average 207 160 159 293 369 320 217 161 172 163 219 186 271 315 218

Page 13: Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation . October 2015 . ... Q3 2015 Financial and Operational Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $30 million versus $19

Forecast OSB Pricing – North Central 7/16”

13

Appendices

Norbord does not provide guidance regarding its expectations of future OSB prices. The following is a sample of price forecasts by analysts as at October 28, 2015. It is not exhaustive.

Annual Average North Central

Benchmark OSB Price US$ per Msf 7/16”

Analyst 2015F 2016F

Dundee Capital Markets 190 198

Raymond James 200 260

RBC Capital Markets 205 250

Scotia Capital 198 235

TD Securities 205 245

Vertical Research Partners 190 230

Average $198 $236

Page 14: Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation . October 2015 . ... Q3 2015 Financial and Operational Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $30 million versus $19

North American Capacity Restarted to Meet Growing Demand

14

Appendices

39 Mills in Operation

8 Mills Indefinitely Curtailed

North American OSB Installed Capacity:

Norbord Mill

6 Mills (Re)started in 2013

Source: Company documents and other public filings

Page 15: Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2015 Earnings Presentation . October 2015 . ... Q3 2015 Financial and Operational Highlights •Adjusted EBITDA of $30 million versus $19

Financial Sensitivities

15

Appendices

(1) Pro forma for the Ainsworth merger Assumes operation at full stated capacity levels Direct exposures only; before the impact of any cash flow currency hedges Approximate tax operating loss carry-forwards (gross) as at Dec. 31, 2014 – US $133 million, Canada C$300 million, Belgium €34 million

(2) Operating exposures only (excludes dividends on common shares)

Exposure Change

Adjusted EBITDA Impact (1)

(US$ millions)

North American OSB $10 per Msf-7/16” + $58

European OSB €10 per 000 m3 + $8

Canadian dollar (2) $0.01 per C$ + $3

Pound sterling £0.01 per € < $1