Quantifying tradeoffs between ecology, economy and climate in the Northern California Current Ecosystem

Jodie E. Little1, R.C. Francis1, M.G. Dalton2 and J.C. Field3

1School of Aquatic & Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

2AFSC, NMFS, NOAA, Seattle, WA3Santa Cruz Laboratory, NMFS, NOAA, Santa Cruz, CA

Wash.

Oregon

California

Northern California Current Ecosystem (NCCE)

1960 2000

-

10

20

30

40

ma

mm

als

bir

ds

salm

on

flatfi

sh

rock

fish

rou

nd

fish

ha

ke

fora

ge

fish

cru

sta

cea

ns

zoo

pla

nkt

on

BIO

MA

SS

(m

t/k

m2

)

82.4BIOMASS

-

20

40

60

80

salm

on

tro

ll

fixe

d g

ea

r

bo

ttom

tra

wl

ha

ke tr

aw

l

cra

b p

ot

shri

mp

tra

wl

RE

VE

NU

E (

mill

ion

$)

REVENUE

Baseline: year 2000

how do ecology and economy respond to…

1. different CLIMATE

2. additional FISHING effort

3. CLIMATE & FISHING

*all scenarios for year 2000 and year 1960 systems*

SCENARIOS

SCENARIO 1: Climate

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Bottom Up Index (Logerwell)

Top Down Index (PDO)

SCENARIO 1: Climate

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Bottom Up Index (Logerwell)

Top Down Index (PDO)

…to 2100

Average 1960-2000

SCENARIO 1: Climate

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Bottom Up Index (Logerwell)

Top Down Index (PDO)

…to 2100

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Average 1963-76

SCENARIO 1: Climate

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Bottom Up Index (Logerwell)

Top Down Index (PDO)

…to 2100

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Average 1977-98

SCENARIO 1: Climate

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

% C

HA

NG

E F

RO

M Y

R. 2

00

0 B

AS

EL

INE

zooplankton

crustaceans

forage fish

hake

roundfish

rockfish

flatfish

salmon

birds

mammals

total

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

shrimp trawl

crab pot

hake trawl

bottom trawl

fixed gear

salmon troll

total

BIOMASS REVENUE

SCENARIO 1: Climate

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

% C

HA

NG

E F

RO

M Y

R. 2

00

0 B

AS

EL

INE

zooplankton

crustaceans

forage fish

hake

roundfish

rockfish

flatfish

salmon

birds

mammals

total

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

shrimp trawl

crab pot

hake trawl

bottom trawl

fixed gear

salmon troll

total

BIOMASS REVENUE

SCENARIO 1: Climate

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

% C

HA

NG

E F

RO

M Y

R. 2

00

0 B

AS

EL

INE

zooplankton

crustaceans

forage fish

hake

roundfish

rockfish

flatfish

salmon

birds

mammals

total

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

shrimp trawl

crab pot

hake trawl

bottom trawl

fixed gear

salmon troll

total

BIOMASS REVENUE

SCENARIO 1: Climate

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

mam

mal

s

bird

s

salm

on

flatfi

sh

rock

fish

roun

dfis

h

hake

fora

ge fi

sh

crus

tace

ans

zoop

lank

ton

salm

on tr

oll

fixed

gea

r

botto

m tr

awl

hake

traw

l

crab

pot

shrim

p tra

wl

% C

HA

NG

E F

RO

M Y

R. 2

000

BA

SE

LIN

E

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

mam

mal

s

bird

s

salm

on

flatfi

sh

rock

fish

roun

dfis

h

hake

fora

ge fi

sh

crus

tace

ans

zoop

lank

ton

salm

on tr

oll

fixed

gea

r

botto

m tr

awl

hake

traw

l

crab

pot

shrim

p tra

wl

63-76 CLIMATE

BASELINE CLIMATE

77-98 CLIMATE

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

mam

mal

s

bird

s

salm

on

flatfi

sh

rock

fish

roun

dfis

h

hake

fora

ge fi

sh

crus

tace

ans

zoop

lank

ton

salm

on tr

oll

fixed

gea

r

botto

m tr

awl

hake

traw

l

crab

pot

shrim

p tra

wl

63-76 CLIMATE

BASELINE CLIMATE

77-98 CLIMATE

BIOMASS REVENUE

SCENARIO 1: Climate

Compared to year 1960 system?

SCENARIO 1: Climate

-

10

20

30

40

ma

mm

als

bir

ds

salm

on

flatfi

sh

rock

fish

rou

nd

fish

ha

ke

fora

ge

fish

cru

sta

cea

ns

zoo

pla

nkt

on

BIO

MA

SS

(m

t/k

m2

)

2000 system

1960 system

-

20

40

60

80

salm

on

tro

ll

fixe

d g

ea

r

bo

ttom

tra

wl

ha

ke tr

aw

l

cra

b p

ot

shri

mp

tra

wl

RE

VE

NU

E (

mill

ion

$)

2000 system

1960 system

BIOMASS REVENUE

SCENARIO 1: Climate

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

% C

HA

NG

E F

RO

M Y

R. 2

00

0 B

AS

EL

INE

zooplankton

crustaceans

forage fish

hake

roundfish

rockfish

flatfish

salmon

birds

mammals

total

2000 SYSTEM 1960 SYSTEM

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

zooplankton

salmon

roundfish

rockfish

mammals

hake

forage fish

flatfish

crustaceans

birds

total

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

zooplankton

crustaceans

forage fish

hake

roundfish

rockfish

flatfish

salmon

birds

mammals

total

SCENARIO 1: Climate

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

2000 SYSTEM

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

shrimp trawl

crab pot

hake trawl

bottom trawl

fixed gear

salmon troll

total

1960 SYSTEM

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BA

SE

LIN

EC

LIM

ATE

63-7

6 C

LIM

ATE

77-9

8 C

LIM

ATE

shrimp trawl

crab pot

hake trawl

bottom trawl

fixed gear

salmon

total

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

SCENARIO 1: Climate

SCENARIO 1: Climate

SCENARIO 2: Fishing

Are we measuring

RESILIENCE?

from Walker et al. 04

SCENARIO 2: Fishing

SCENARIO 2: Fishing

SCENARIO 2: Fishing

SCENARIO 2: Fishing

SCENARIO 2: Fishing

SCENARIO 2: Fishing

SCENARIO 3: Climate & Fishing

SCENARIO 3: Climate & Fishing

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

mam

mal

s

bird

s

salm

on

flatfi

sh

rock

fish

roun

dfis

h

hake

fora

ge fi

sh

crus

tace

ans

zoop

lank

ton

salm

on tr

oll

fixed

gea

r

botto

m tr

awl

hake

traw

l

crab

pot

shrim

p tra

wl

% C

HA

NG

E F

RO

M Y

R. 2

000

BA

SE

LIN

E

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

50

%-

- cu

rre

nt

40

%-

- cu

rre

nt

30

%-

- cu

rre

nt

20

%-

-cu

rre

nt

10

%-

-cu

rre

nt

Eq

- c

urr

en

t

10

%+

- c

urr

en

t

20

%+

- c

urr

en

t

30

%+

- c

urr

en

t

40

%+

- c

urr

en

t

50

%+

- c

urr

en

t

-1

-0.75

-0.5

-0.25

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

shrimp trawl

crab pot

hake trawl

bottom trawl

fixed gear

salmon

total

REVENUE

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.0050

%-

- cu

rren

t

40%

- -

curr

ent

30%

- -

curr

ent

20%

- -c

urre

nt

10%

- -c

urre

nt

Eq

- cu

rren

t

10%

+ -

cur

rent

20%

+ -

cur

rent

30%

+ -

cur

rent

40%

+ -

cur

rent

50%

+ -

cur

rent

63-76 CLIMATE

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

50%

- -cu

rrent

40%

- -cu

rrent

30%

- -cu

rrent

20%

- -cu

rrent

10%

- -cu

rrent

Eq -

curre

nt

10%

+ -

curre

nt20

%+

-cu

rrent

30%

+ -

curre

nt40

%+

-cu

rrent

50%

+ -

curre

nt

-1

-0.75

-0.5

-0.25

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

77-98 CLIMATE

SUMMARY

thanks to: WA Sea Grant, IPDES, SAFS