quantitative lecture pwu

8/10/2019 Quantitative Lecture Pwu

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QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUESBusiness

Management of Projects


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What is a project?

DeadlineManagement

Manage toPlan


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Costs of ProjectFailure

Standish Group survey of US IT Systems Projects:

17% Met Target

50% Had to have targets changed

33% Cancelled

Cost to US Companies $80 Billion/Year


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Separating ObjectivesProject Objectives - the deliverableProject Management Objectives

Execution Costs/Time/Quality


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Project PlanningWork Breakdown StructureResource EstimationLogical Dependencies

Project SchedulingCPA, Critical Path AnalysisPERT, Programme Evaluation and ReviewTechnique

Output - Gantt Charts & ResourceHistograms


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WBS Level NamesProgramProjectTask

Sub TaskWork PackageActivity


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Work Breakdown

Structures


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www.picassodlcf..com.uk/lecture


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2.995m Municipal Truck

Specification Changes:

Crew cab Interior TrimRear SeatsWide Access

Controls Change Speed

Engine 9 gm NoX

Brakes ABS

Chassis Framesides/XmbrSprings & Dampers


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WBS Task Level100 Concept Investigation200 Concept Approval D2300 Programme Definition400 Programme Approval D4500 Engineering Release Stage IV600 Methods Review

700 Build/Sign off Mock-up800 Prototype Build900 Test/Development1000 Stage V Sign off1100 Procure pre-prod materials1200 Sample Approval

1300 Pre-Production build1400 Issue material to lineside1500 Proof build1600 Job 1


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WBS Sub Task500 Engineering Stage IV Release

510 Change Speed520 Engine530 Chassis540 I nter ior Tri m

141 LHS Side Trim

142 RHS Side Trim143 Rear Seat144 LHS Doo r Step Kic ker Plate


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Estimating ResourcesAn exact estimate is impossibleThe more experience there is of anactivity the easier it is to estimate.

If people are punished for failure theywill pad estimates.Project estimating assumes 50%probability estimates are used unless

specified otherwise.


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X X XX

onsensuaEstimating

Situation A

Time

E s t

i m a

t e 2

E s t

i m a t e

1

E s t

i m a t e

4

E s t

i m a

t e 3

E s t

i m a

t e 5

E s t

i m a t e 4

E s t

i m a t e 3

E s t

i m a t e 2

E s t

i m a t e 1

Situation B

TimeX X X X X


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Activity Network(Activity on Node)

100 1100400300200 500

600

700 800 900

1000 16001500140013001200


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Programme Evaluation & ReviewTechnique - PERT

Distribution of activity times

Days LateDays Early

Probability


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PERTfor a Task

a = optimistic duration

b = likely durationc = pessimistic duration

Expected Time = a + 4 x b + c6


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PERTfor a Project:

Expected Project Duration is the sum of the expecteddurations of the activities on the critical path.

for an activity:

The standard deviation = a - c6

for a Project:Standard deviation = s 12+s 22+s 32.


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Gantt Chart


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Resource Histogram


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Schedule Computations(fixing the plan to a point in time)

Forward SchedulingBackward SchedulingResource Constraining


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Shortening the ProjectAdd ResourceReduce Scope (or eliminate scopecreep)

Change ProcessLook for activities that can be done inparallelReduce Quality

Project Managers Desk Reference J P Lewis


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Bottleneck

Float

Effect of Slippage

Critical

Slip


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Bottleneck

Float

Critical Chain Theorythings are more likely to go wrong than get better!

Buffer

Critical

Eli Goldratt Critical Chain


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ro ec e vera eReview

DesignDoes it Work?Can we make it?Is it still viable?

Risk


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ro ec anagemenReview

Current Project StatusFuture StatusStatus of Critical Tasks

Risk AssessmentInformation Relevant to otherProjectsLimitations of Review


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Project Team ReviewLeadershipDecision MakingProblem Solving

CommunicationsMeetingsPlanningGiving Feedback to Team

MembersConflict Management


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Final MessagesProject management challengeincreases with number ofcommunication interfaces

Estimating is difficultSoftware tools help to establish anachievable plan beware GIGOPlan to Manage Manage the Plan


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Causes of Perceived Project FailureInsufficient use of project/status reportsUse of superficial status reportsInadequate project management, administrative,human & technical skillsInsufficient project manager influence and authorityPoor co-ordination with clientLack of rapport with client/parent organisationClient disinterest in budget criteriaLack of project team participation in decisionmaking/Problem solvingExcessive structure within project teamJob insecurity within project teamLack of team spirit and sense of mission withinproject team

Appendix 1 1/2


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Causes of Perceived Project Failure

Parent organisation stable, non dynamic, lacking strategicchange

Poor co-ordination with parent organisation New type of project Project more complex than parent handled previously Initial underfunding/under resourcing Inability to freeze design early Inability to close out effort Unrealistic project schedules Inadequate change procedures

Appendix 1 2/2


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Review QuestionsProblem not clearly definedPlanning based on insufficient dataPlanning just performed by planning groupNo one is in chargeProject estimates are best guesses,made withoutconsulting historic dataResource planning is inadequateProject dont see them selves working as one team People are constantly pulled off project or reassignedwith no regard for impactThe project plan lacks detailThe project is not tracked to planPeople loose sight of the original goalSenior managers refuse to accept realityBallpark estimates become official targets

Appendix 2


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CASE STUDYNorth West Rail Link

The North West Rail Link is a priorityrail infrastructure project for the NSW

Government. Planning is well underway on the23km rail link to Sydney's growing North West

region.

Eight new railway stations are proposed at:Cherrybrook, Castle Hill, Hills Centre, Norwest, BellaVista, Kellyville, Rouse Hill and Cudgegong Road.Also planned are 4,000 commuter car parkingspaces.


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The North West Rail Link will deliver savings of up to 3 hours a weekin journey times to the Sydney CBD as well as frequent,reliable, direct rail services between the North West and Macquarie Park,Chatswood, North Sydney and the city. The rail link includes 15km oftunnels between Bella Vista and Epping - the longest and deepest railtunnels ever built in Australia.

InfraSol Group was appointed by Transport for NSW in May 2011 towork as part of their inhouse project management team to deliver thefollowing Services for the Business Case Stage of the $9 Billion project.


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CASE STUDY

The National Gallery of Australia,Canberra - Stage 1 Extensions

A $100 million Stage 1 Extension to the NationalGallery of Australia was under construction on sitewhile the design was still being completed.


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One of the main sources of concern for the buildingcommittee, in charge of the delivery of theextensions to the existing National Gallery of

Australia(NGA) building, was the lack of finalisation ofthe architectural and engineering designs whilst atthe same time construction had already commenced.InfraSol Group was engaged by the NGA to help themovercome the following challenges in taking theproject to completion:

Provide strong Project Leadership through theProject Director role

Undertake a Quantitative Risk Assessment of theprojectEffectively Managing design to completionImplement a Testing and Commissioning

Management process for the Building Services


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1. Project Leadership

The InfraSol Group principal, John Barrow, wasbrought in to resolve the problems with theproject delivery.

John tackled the problem head on by doing thefollowing:Meeting with the building committee

Meeting with the construction management team

Meeting with the key design consultant


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With the benefit of the above background Johnwas able to prepare a project review

report which was presented to the buildingcommittee which resulted in the followingrecommendations being adopted to get theproject on track:

Install John as project director to over see the project andreport to the building committee

Implement managing of the design

Arrange for a quantitative risk assessment of the projectin terms of cost and time

Arrange for weekly meetings with the construction managerand his team along with regular design meeting


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The result of InfraSol Group's projectleadership was the successful delivery of theproject to meet the construction programme and tothe required quality and completeness.


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2. Quantitative Risk Assessment

The InfraSol Group Risk Manager , GrantHookway, was brought in to undertake aQuantitative Risk Assessment for the project.

Grant arranged and facilitated tworisk workshops which included all the relevantstakeholders and project team members. As a resultof the workshops, Grant was able to identify anumber of key risks on the project as follows:

Cost to completeTime to complete

--- Risk Management

quantitative lecture pwu

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