quarterly hogs and pigs december 20, 2018 · 20/12/2018 · sep 1 estimate (1,000 head) slaughter...
TRANSCRIPT
Quarterly Hogs and Pigs
December 20, 2018
Executive Briefing
United States Department of Agriculture
National Agricultural Statistics Service
Survey Overview
December Hogs and Pigs
Data Collection Period November 30 – December 12
Sample Size 8,559
Collection Methods Mail, Telephone, Internet, Face-to-Face Interview
Primary Data ItemsTotal Inventory: by class, weight group;
Sows Farrowing; Pig Crop; and Pigs per Litter
December 20, 2018
U.S. Hogs and Pigs Revisions
Survey Item
Initial
Estimate(1,000 head)
Previous
Revisions(1,000 head)
Current
Revision(1,000 head)
Net
Revision(1,000 head)
Current
Estimate(1,000 head)
March 1, 2018All Hogs
and Pigs72,908
-75
-0.1%
-85
-0.1%
-160
-0.2%72,748
Pig Crop 32,341-21
-0.06%
-219
-0.7%
-240
-0.7%32,101
June 1, 2018All Hogs
and Pigs73,451
-325
-0.4%
-260
-0.4%
-585
-0.8%72,866
Pig Crop 33,167 No revision-233
-0.7%
-233
-0.7%32,942
September 1, 2018All Hogs
and Pigs75,486 No revision
-545
-0.7%
-545
-0.7%74,941
Pig Crop 34,159 No revision-4
-0.01%
-4
-0.01%34,155
December 20, 2018
U.S. Hogs and Pigs December 1
December 20, 2018
Item 2017 2018 % PY
1,000 head
All Hogs and Pigs 73,145 74,550 102
Breeding Hogs 6,179 6,326 102
Market Hogs 66,966 68,225 102
less than 50 lbs 21,407 21,599 101
50-119 lbs 18,544 18,932 102
120-179 lbs 13,925 14,412 103
180 lbs & over 13,089 13,282 101
Sows Farrowed 3,103 3,158 102
Pig Crop 33,328 33,978 102
number
Pigs per Litter 10.74 10.76 100
1,000 head
December-February Farrowings 3,034 3,110 102
Mar-May Farrowings 3,100 3,147 102
U.S. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs2009 - 2018
December 20, 2018
74.9
61
63
65
67
69
71
73
75
77
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mil
lion h
ead
December 1 September 1
73.1 74.6
December 1, 2018
Hogs and Pigs Inventory
Head (1,000) and Percent of Previous Year
December 20, 2018
Inventory Down Up No Change
Trade Expectations Compared
to NASS Estimates Percent of Previous Year
December 20, 2018
101.9
102.4
102.6
102.8
102.7
101.5
102.4
102.0
101.9
102.4
101.9
99.5 100 100.5 101 101.5 102 102.5 103 103.5
Mar-May Farrowings
Dec-Feb Farrowings
Sep-Nov Pig Crop
Market Hogs
Breeding Hogs
All Hogs and Pigs
Min Trade Range Trade Average NASS % PY
59
61
63
65
67
69
71
73
75
77
79
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mil
lion h
ead
ASB First Estimate ASB Final Estimate Lower Trade Range Upper Trade Range
All Hogs and PigsFirst Estimate Versus Final Estimate
2009 - 2018
December 20, 2018
U.S. Quarterly Sows Farrowed2009 - 2019
3.16
3.11
3.15
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mil
lion h
ead
Sep-Nov Estimates Dec-Feb Intentions Mar-May Intentions
December 20, 2018
Breeding Herd InventoryDisposition and Utilization
December 20, 2018
Year
Sep 1
Estimate(1,000 head)
Slaughter(1,000 head)
Additions(1,000 head)
Dec 1
Estimate(1,000 head)
Sow
Utilization(Percent)
2009 5,875 941 917 5,850 50
2010 5,770 849 858 5,778 50
2011 5,806 880 877 5,803 50
2012 5,788 887 918 5,819 50
2013 5,816 826 767 5,757 48
2014 5,920 802 822 5,939 50
2015 5,986 772 789 6,002 49
2016 6,016 825 919 6,110 51
2017 6,117 839 901 6,179 51
2018 6,330 857 853 6,326 50
U.S. Quarterly Pigs per Litter2009 - 2018
December 20, 2018
10.72
10.74
10.76
9.40
9.70
10.00
10.30
10.60
10.90
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Pig
s per
Lit
ter
September-November June-August
Canadian Imports by QuarterFeeder Pigs and Slaughter Hogs
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Thousa
nd h
ead
Feeder Slaughter
December 20, 2018
U.S. Prices Received by Farmers
for Hogs and Corn
December 20, 2018
$1.50
$2.50
$3.50
$4.50
$5.50
$6.50
$7.50
$8.50
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Corn
$/b
u
Hogs
$/c
wt
Hogs Corn
Upcoming NASS Reports
Release Date Report Title
December 27 Agricultural Prices
December 28 Final Estimates: Citrus; Field Crops; Non-
Citrus Fruits and Nuts; Rice Stocks; Grain
Stocks; Vegetables
January 2 Cotton System; Fats & Oils; Grain Crushings
January 11 Cotton Ginnings
Crop Production
Crop Production Annual
Grain Stocks
January 25 Cattle on Feed
January 31 Cattle
Sheep and Goats
December 20, 2018
All Reports Available At
www.nass.usda.gov
For Questions
(202) 720-3570
(800) 727-9540
United States Department of Agriculture
National Agricultural Statistics Service
December 20, 2018