r3's 2013 china's media inflation trend report

IMPROVING THE EFFECTIVENESS & EFFICIENCY OF MARKETERS & THEIR AGENCIES 1

R3 2013 China Media Inflation Trend Report

2013 年中国媒体价格增⻓长趋势报告

胜三发布

Sep-2013

IMPROVING THE EFFECTIVENESS & EFFICIENCY OF MARKETERS & THEIR AGENCIES

Background 背景

•  This is the fourth year R3 did China Media Inflation Report since Y2010.

This Report covers media inflation forecasts for Y2013 in all key media: both nationally and locally.

胜三自2010年开始，连续四年持续对中国媒介市场价格涨幅情况进行研究。我们本次报告覆盖了2013年中国各主要媒体价格增⻓长的情况，包含全国性媒体及地方性媒体。

•  In compiling this Report, R3 consulted 16 leading Marketers and Media

agencies – and we are grateful for their participation. 此次，我们联系了16位国内领先的市场主及行业内知名的媒介代理公司协助我

们一同完成此报告，我们非常感谢他们对于此份报告所作出的贡献。

•  Forecasts from participants have been aggregated into an overall media inflation forecast. Because we do not rely on any one single data source – we believe that R3 forecasts give the most objective and independent view of media inflation for Y2013.

我们报告的基础主要是将参与者的调研数据进行整理并分析，从而对中国媒体价格增⻓长情况进行一个全面的预测。我们旨在带给您一个客观的、独立的对于2013年媒体价格增⻓长情况的报告。

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•  We have analyzed all key media in China: TV, Newspapers, Magazines, Radio, OOH, Digital and Mobile.

我们主要针对电视，报纸，杂志，广播，户外媒体，网络以及手机移动终端等几大类媒体进行全方位的研究。

•  Inflation forecasts have been divided into 2 perspectives - national

inflation and local inflation of the top 24 cities in China. 我们将中国媒体市场分为全国性媒体及地方性媒体进行深入研究。对于地

方性媒体，我们选取了中国市场上最为重要的24个城市作为研究对象。 •  For OOH we have included: Building LCD’s, Railway media, Bus Transit,

etc. •  For Digital we have included: Portals, Search Engines, Video, SNS,

Weibo, Network Community, IM, AD Alliance/Network and Vertical channels, etc.

对于户外媒体来讲，我们主要考察了网络型户外媒体，包括楼宇液晶视频，地铁媒体，公交⻋车身，候⻋车厅等媒体形式。

对于网络媒体而言，我们主要考察了門户网站、搜索引擎、视频类、社交媒体、微博、网络社区、即时通讯、广告联盟以及垂直类网站等几种网站类型

•  For each media, both the Rate Card Inflation and the forecast Nett

Inflation are shown. 我们的研究报告分别针对媒体刊例价格和市场主的媒介净花费。

Methodology 方法论

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•  In view of the slower economic growth, inflation of traditional media is expected to slow

down in Y2013 . 考虑到13年整体经济环境的影响，传统媒体的价格涨幅相对往年趋缓。

•  TV Ad spend growth will be driven primarily by : PTV and LTV mergers , limited airtime on high quality TV programs, TV stations’ push for high revenue targets , increased prices for flagship programs, stricter local policies which limits the volume of bonus, etc.

2013年电视广告花费的增⻓长，主要受几方面因素的影响，其中包括：省市台的资源合并，优质电视节目的广告资源抢手，电视台销售目标的增加，新娱乐节目的崛起，地方电视台的政策调整导致赠播资源的减少，以及一些其他的因素。

•  All the above mentioned factors are the key factors for the increased prices, but these

are all expected to be regular yearly increases, which are not extraordinary. 所有以上因素，都成为了媒体价格年度增⻓长的原因。但仅为年度常规涨幅。 •  Y2013 annual forecast for national and local media are as follows: 2013年总体预测

结果如下： •  National ：全国性媒体: TV:15%, Digital:13%, Magazine:8%, Newspaper:8%. 电视：15%，网络： 13%，杂志：

8%，报纸：8% Radio: 21%, Mobile: 13%, OOH: 9% , Movie:15% 广播: 21%，移动：13%，户外：9%

，影院15% Local：地方性媒体： TV 14%, Newspaper 8%, Radio 21%, OOH 13% 电视14%，报纸: 8%，广播：21%，网络型户外：13%

Summary 总结

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Contents

1

2 National Media Inflation Forecasts 全国性媒体价格增⻓长预测

3 Local Media Inflation Forecasts 地区性媒体价格增⻓长预测

4 Top Markets – Detailed Analysis 分市场媒体价格增⻓长分析

Inflation Factors 媒介增⻓长驱动因素分析


1 Inflation Factors 媒介增⻓长驱动因素分析


Background of Inflation Forecasts 媒介价格增⻓长预测背景资料

•  In general, the key factors identified are as follows: 基于调研的反馈信息来看，广告主及广告代理公司，在进行媒介价格增⻓长的预测时，所看重的几个主要因素包括：

−  Macro economic factors： GDP growth and consumer price index growth

宏观经济因素: 中国GDP增⻓长，CPI增⻓长。

−  Projected growth in overall ad spending due to increases in demand

媒介投放量变化

−  Proliferation and expansion of media scene 媒介环境的不断变化

−  Continual growth of enterprises in China, and their driving demand for advertising

企业发展状况及对媒介传播诉求

•  In the following slides we highlight some of these key factors and recent news reports. 在接下来的报告中，我们将着重分析这些重要因素，并附上最新的新闻报告

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9.6% 9.1% 10.4%

8.9% 7.7% 8.0%

Y2008 Y2009 Y2010 Y2011 Y2012 Y2013

China GDP growth rate 中国GDP增⻓长率

CASS Prediction - 2012 Dec.：8.2%

•  In “Blue Book of China’s Economy” published on April 26th 2013, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released a new forecast on the country’s economy. The predicted GDP growth rate are now down by 0.2%, from 8.2% to 8.0% .

中国社会科学院4月26日发布2013年《经济蓝皮书春季号》,GDP增速预测值比去年12月预测值下调0.2%，为8.0%。

1. GDP Projected Growth Scaled Back To 8.0% GDP年增⻓长率下调至8.0%

Data Source 数据来源:中国社会科学院4月26日发布2013年《经济蓝皮书春季号》,

CASS Target：7.5%

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▲

▲


2. Transformation on China’s Economic 中国经济结构调整以及增速放缓

•  Figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that China’s GDP grew 7.5% in Q2 2013, which was a slight slowdown from the 7.7% growth in Q1, and was the lowest since 1990. 来自国家统计局的最新数字，2013年第二季度，中国国内生产总值(GDP)较上年同期增⻓长7.5%，低于第一季度的7.7%，不仅低于2012年的7.8%，也将是1990年以来的最低增⻓长纪录。

•  Many organizations and analysts attribute the slowdown to China’s economic restructuring and weak overseas demand. This motivates Chinese government to restructure its economy amidst the “cooling” and “stabilizing” period of growth that China is currently experiencing. It is also deemed reasonable that short term growth will be limited due to re-structuring adjustments. 多数分析机构，将中国经济增速放缓归因为外部环境不稳定、国内经济加快结构调整，而这或将促使政府释放更大改革红利。 2013年中国经济增⻓长出现“硬着陆”的⻛风险较小，经济只是合理降温。在此背景下，经济结构调整以及经济增速一定程度的放缓是合理的。

•  The economic transformation, to varying degrees, slow down ad demand and ad spending from both domestic and international brands. 从某种程度上，中国经济结构调整和增速放缓，将影响广告主未来的广告预算需求。

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•  In “Blue Book of China’s Economy”, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences has adjusted its forecast for China’s consumer prices growth rate in Y2013 from 3.0% to 3.5%. The media inflation rate has risen consistently faster than CPI.

中国社会科学院4月26日发布2013年《经济蓝皮书春季号》,CPI增速预测值比去年12月预测值上调0.5%，预计2013年全年CPI上涨将不超过3.5% •  Economic growth and CPI go hand in hand – both helping to fuel the boom in advertising spending – a viscous cycle and serious challenge for controlling media costs.

经济增⻓长和CPI是关联的 – 并且都刺激了广告花费的增⻓长

3. CPI Projected Growth Rose Up To 3.5% CPI 年增⻓长率上调至3.5%

Data Source 数据来源:中国社会科学院4月26日发布2013年《经济蓝皮书春季号》,

1.5%

4.8% 5.9%

-0.7%

3.3%

5.5%

2.7% 3.5%

Y2006 Y2007 Y2008 Y2009 Y2010 Y2011 Y2012 Y2013F

China CPI growth rate 中国CPI增⻓长率

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CASS Prediction - 2012 Dec.：3.0%


3.8% -0.2% 2.1% 0.7%

18.8% 6.1%

50.0%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

TV 电视

NEWSPAPER 报纸

MAGAZINE 杂志

RADIO 广播

DIGITAL 网络

OOH 户外

MOBILE 移动

2013 Media Planning Budget Growth Rate 2013年各媒体预算增⻓长情况

•  According to marketer and agency respondents –planning budget of digital media is forecast to rise by an average of 18.8%, while that of mobile is expected to deliver a dramatic growth of more than 50%. 网络媒体的预算以18.8%的增幅，高于其他传统媒体，移动媒体预算增幅更是高达50%。 •  There will be slower but sustained growth in traditional media. Newspaper is possibly expected some negative growth. 传统媒体的预算增幅相对减缓, 报纸甚至可能出现负增⻓长。

4. Media Planning Budget Growth Rate% In Y2013 2013年各媒体预算增⻓长情况

Data Source 数据来源: R3

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5. Marketers’ Perspective on Digital and Mobile Media Trend 广告主如何看待互联网媒体及移动互联网媒体的发展

•  “We have mobile specialists in place, also take active part in MMA, acceleration training programs. Etc.” 我们已经拥有了专业的移动营销专家，并将积极参与到MMA中，同时也会积极进行培训，以保证很好地掌握移动营销。

Said by one 4A agency，来自其中之一 4A公司观点

•  “Mobile planning is becoming the essential to every digital planner. Many of our clients is still learning about mobile opportunities and its potential performance gains. 移动互联网策划能力将是每一个网络策划人员必备的职业素质。同时我们的客户对此新媒体都很感兴趣，同时也在从现在移动互联网案例中去寻找和发现带来最好机会与最佳效果。


•  “Internet & mobile are the most influential media for changing people‘s lifestyle, and the age of multi-screens lands, fueled by technology development” 互联网及移动互联网正在改变当前人们的生活习惯，技术的发展一定会迎来真正的多屏时代的到来。


•  “We are looking forward to see more creativity and innovation from mobile media, and also want to know how can it help us distribute our message” 我们期待看到更新颖有创意的移动互联网媒体，同时也想知道它到底能够给我们带来怎样的传播效果。

Said by one Marketer，来自其中之一市场主

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6. The Effect of RTB on Digital Media 实时竞价购买方式对网络广告的影响

•  Considering the complex and fragmented digital media scene, buying ads from multiple vendors has been time-consuming and nontransparent for a long time. A faster and more automated method called RTB emerged in recent years, and were soon bought to China. It’s said that Y2012 is the beginning era of Chinese RTB, with bunches of leading companies launching their digital ad marketplace products. We believe the trend will be sustained throughout Y2013.

一直以来，网络媒体因其自身复杂以及分散的特性，使得从众多网络媒体中选择出真正适合投放的媒体，⻓长期处于一种耗时且低透明度的状态。近几年，出现了一种更快更自动化的网络媒体购买方式-实时竞价广告，并且很快被引进中国。2012年被认为是中国实时竞价元年，有很多相关的公司、平台、产品面世。这个趋势将持续到2013年，也必将影响网络媒体策划购买的大格局。

Data Source：http://www.rtbchina.com/china-display-ad-tech-ecosystem

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2 National Media Inflation Forecasts 全国性媒体价格增⻓长预测


National Media Nett Inflation YOY Comparison 全国性媒体净价涨幅年度对比

•  In view of China economic transformation, prices of traditional national media(especially TV and Newspapers) are expected to resume an average slower growth in Y2013 . 考虑到整体经济环境的影响，2013年全国传统性媒体的净价涨幅预测，相对往年变小。

•  Prices of Radio and OOH enjoy an steady growth due to the mobility characteristic 广播和户外广告因其移动特性，媒体净价逐年上涨。

20%

15%

5%

10%

19%

10% 8%

17% 16%

8% 9%

18% 18%

8%

15% 13%

8% 8%

21%

13%

9%

15%

TV 电视

Digital 网络

Magazines 杂志

Newspapers 报纸

Radio 广播

Moblie 手机类

OOH 户外

MOVIE 影院媒体

Y2012 Nett Inflation% - 2012 Dec.


Y2013 Nett Inflation% - 2013 Jul.

National Media Inflation 全国性媒体价格增⻓长

NA NA

Data Source 数据来源:预测数据来自参与调研的市场主和媒介代理商。 Based on aggregated responses from leading Marketer and Media Agency participants.

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Y2013 Media Inflation Forecasts - National 2013年媒体价格增⻓长预测–全国性媒体

19% 19%

12% 9%

22% 20%

12%

25%

15% 13%

8% 8%

21%

13%

9%

15%

TV 电视

Digital 网络

Magazines 杂志

Newspapers 报纸

Radio 广播

Moblie 手机类

OOH 户外

MOVIE 影院媒体

Ratecard Inflation % 刊例价格涨幅

Nett Inflation % 净价格涨幅

National Media Inflation 全国性媒体价格增⻓长

R3 Contacted 16 leading Marketers and Media Agencies. Fieldwork 2013.

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•  Nett Inflation are generally slower than Rate card Inflation in all forms of media, due to the increasing discount and bonus rate . 因折扣和赠送资源增加，净价涨幅普遍低于刊例价涨幅。

•  Movie ad’s uniqueness to reach attentive and qualified audiences contribute to the higher growth in both Rate card and Nett price. 影院媒体，因其能高效触达高关注度与高质量受众群，而净价与刊例价涨幅明显于其他媒体。


14% 15% 13%

16% 17% 15%

18% 20%

16%

23%

20%

11% 13%

11% 13% 12% 12%

16% 15%

10% 10%

18%

CCTV 1 中央电视台 - 1



CCTV others 中央电视台 -

其它

Hunan Satellite

TV 湖南卫视

Jiangsu Satellite TV 江苏卫视

Anhui Satellite TV 安徽卫视

Zhejiang Satellite TV 浙江卫视

Dragon TV 东方卫视

Tianjin TV 天津卫视

Other PSTV 其它省级卫视



•  Revenues target of TV station increase　电视台收入目标的增⻓长 •  Inventory limitations　广告位的减少 •  The advantage of stronger TV stations are now reducing, while Flagship programs continues to inflate

sharply due to strong demand..通过价格的涨幅，我们可以看出强势媒体的优势日渐减弱，但王牌节目的价格涨幅日趋明显。

Y2013 Media Inflation Forecasts - CCTV, PSTV 2013年媒体价格增⻓长预测–央视及省级卫视

National TV Media Inflation 全国电视媒体价格增⻓长

Nett Ave. 15%


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•  All digital ad opportunities will see double digit increases in unit costs in Y2013, as more marketers increase their digital marketing spending. 由于广告主对于网络媒体投放效果的认可以及预算的增加，各类型的网络媒体价格均呈现出两位数水平的增⻓长。

•  In Y2013, social websites growth has tend to stabilize and slow down as well. Video and Weibo are growing at rapid speed, outstrip all other digital forms of advertising. 2013年社交网站媒体价格涨幅涨幅趋于平稳。视频类和微博类，继续保持强势增⻓长，超过了网络类媒体涨幅的平均值。

Y2013 Media Inflation Forecasts - Digital 2013年媒体价格增⻓长预测–全国性网络媒体

21%

14%

28%

16%

21%

13%

18% 18% 14% 13%

20%

12%

18%

10%

14%

6%

Webportals 門户网站

Search Engine 搜索引擎

Video 视频类

SNS 社交网站

Weibo 微博

Network Community 网络社区

IM 即时通讯类

AD Alliance/Network 广告联盟/网络



National Digital Media Inflation 全国网络媒体价格增⻓长

Nett Ave. 13%


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•  The Mobile Market is coming into a booming period in China. In past 3 years, the mobile internet traffic has increased from 1% over the total internet traffic to 10%. Numerous APPs and Wap site emerged. Although Mobile only contributes less than 2% to the total media budget, almost all the marketers and agency foresee a thriving prospect in the coming 1-2 years.

•  随着智能移动终端的普及，上网速度的提升，以及涌现的各类APP和移动网站，中国正在进入移动媒体与移动营销时代。虽然现在移动营销占总广告支出预算不到2%，但无论是广告主还是代理商都无法忽视它即将到来的快速成⻓长期。

Y2013 Media Inflation Forecasts - Mobile 2013年媒体价格增⻓长预测–全国性移动媒体

13%

25%

18%

11%

19%

9%

Push 主动推送类（短彩信，手机报） Wap site 手机版网站及客户端 App 手机应用程序


Nett Inflation % 净价格涨幅 National Mobile Media Inflation

全国移动媒体价格增⻓长

Nett Ave. 13%


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3 Local Media Inflation Forecasts 地方性媒体价格增⻓长预测


Local Media Nett Inflation YOY Comparison 地方性媒体净价涨幅年度对比

•  In view of China economic transformation, prices of traditional media(especially TV and Newspapers) are expected to resume an average slower growth in Y2013 . 考虑到整体经济环境的影响，2013年地方传统性媒体(特别是电视和报纸)的净价预测涨幅相对往年变小。

•  Local media are inclined to compromise more on the discount rate than national media, which will lead to the slower growth in Nett price. 相较全国性媒体，在整体环境的影响下，地方性媒体倾向给出更多的折扣优惠。因此，地方媒体净价涨幅预测，相较全国性媒体更低。

17%

10%

30%

11%

16%

9%

19%

8%

14%

8%

21%

13%

TV 电视

Newspapers 报纸

Radio 广播

OOH 网络型户外



Y2013 Nett Inflation% - 2013 Jul.

Local Media Inflation 地方性媒体价格增⻓长

Data Source 数据来源: Based on aggregated responses from leading Marketer and Media Agency participants.预测数据来自参与调研的市场主和媒介代理商。

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18%

9%

24%

10%

14%

8%

21%

9%

TV 电视

Newspapers 报纸

Radio 广播

OOH 网络型户外



Y2013 Media Inflation Forecasts - Local 2013年媒体价格增⻓长预测–地方性媒体

•  Local media Rate card prices will rise across all media, led by a sharp increase in radio – although from a low base. 各地方性媒体的刊例价都有所增⻓长，特别是广播媒体增⻓长幅度较高。

Local Media Inflation 地方性媒体价格增⻓长


22


22% 20%

12%

35%

16% 17% 19%

15%

19%

9% 8%

15% 14% 17%

11%

33%

14% 14%

23%

12%

21%

9%

5%

10%

Beijing 北京

Shanghai 上海

Shenzhen 深圳

Guangzhou 广州

Chengdu 成都

Tianjin 天津

Nanjing 南京

Chongqing 重庆

Wuhan 武汉

Hangzhou 杭州

Fuzhou 福州

Harbin 哈尔滨



Nett Ave. 14%

Y2013 Media Inflation Forecasts - Local TV 2013年媒体价格增⻓长预测–地方电视

Key Cities 主要城市

•  Tight advertising resources, TV media monopoly, policy inelastic are the main attributed factors to the overall inflation in key cities. 广告资源紧张，媒体垄断，政策无弹性，在主要城市持续引发电视媒体价格上涨。

Local TV Media Inflation 地方电视媒体价格增⻓长


23


28%

21%

16%

7%

13% 15% 12%

24% 22%

23% 24%

12%

20% 18%

11%

7%

10% 12%

8%

15% 16%

11%

15%

10%

Xi'an 西安

Zhengzhou 郑州

Changsha ⻓长沙

Suzhou 苏州

Wuxi 无锡

Jinan 济南

Ningbo 宁波

Kunming 昆明

Shijiazhuang 石家庄

Shenyang 沈阳

Nanchang 南昌

Shantou 汕头


Nett Inflation % 净价格涨幅 Local TV Media Inflation

地方电视媒体价格增⻓长

Nett Ave. 14%

Y2013 Media Inflation Forecasts - Local TV 2013年媒体价格增⻓长预测–地方电视

Other Cities 其他城市

•  Local TV inflation in the rest of the cities assumed rapid growth in recent years. 非重点地区电视媒体价格近几年一直处于上涨的趋势。

•  The mergers of Provincial TV stations and City TV stations in some markets have led to big increase in Nett prices. 部分市场的省市台进行合并，导致整体市场涨幅大。


24


11% 10%

7%

10%

7%

15%

9%

15%

9% 10% 9% 9%

11% 9%

5%

9%

5%

13%

8%

13%

5% 7%

9% 8%

Beijing 北京

Shanghai 上海

Shenzhen 深圳

Guangzhou 广州

Chengdu 成都

Tianjin 天津

Nanjing 南京

Chongqing 重庆

Wuhan 武汉

Hangzhou 杭州

Fuzhou 福州

Harbin 哈尔滨



•  Local Newspapers are dominated by three major categories of advertisers– Estate, Automobile and Retailing. The recovering of Chinese Real Estate in Y2013 and the severe competition between Retailing & E-commerce, give a rise to local newspaper Rate card and Nett price.地方报纸广告，受房地产、汽⻋车、零售三大行业投放影响明显，房地产市场2013年回暖、零售业受到电商冲击而加大自身宣传力度，均在一定程度上推高了地方报纸的刊例价和净价。

Nett Ave. 8%

Y2013 Media Inflation Forecasts - Local NP 2013年媒体价格增⻓长预测–地方报纸


Local NP Media Inflation 地方报纸媒体价格增⻓长


25


10% 12%

11% 10%

7% 8% 10% 10% 9% 10%

4% 6%

8%

11%

8% 8%

5% 6%

8% 8% 7% 8%

4% 4%

Xi'an 西安

Zhengzhou 郑州

Changsha ⻓长沙

Suzhou 苏州

Wuxi 无锡

Jinan 济南

Ningbo 宁波

Kunming 昆明


Shenyang 沈阳

Nanchang 南昌

Shantou 汕头


Nett Inflation % 净价格涨幅 Local NP Media Inflation

地方报纸媒体价格增⻓长

Nett Ave. 8%

Y2013 Media Inflation Forecasts - Local NP 2013年媒体价格增⻓长预测–地方报纸


•  Other cities follow the same trend - averaging + 6% increase in unit costs. 其他城市的价格上涨水平与市场平均水平持平。


26


19% 18% 15%

30% 24% 25% 25% 26%

30%

20% 24%

22% 15% 14%

12% 25%

21% 22% 21% 23% 25%

17% 18% 22%

Beijing 北京

Shanghai 上海

Shenzhen 深圳

Guangzhou 广州

Chengdu 成都

Tianjin 天津

Nanjing 南京

Chongqing 重庆

Wuhan 武汉

Hangzhou 杭州

Fuzhou 福州

Harbin 哈尔滨


Nett Inflation % 净价格涨幅 Local Radio Media Inflation

地方广播媒体价格增⻓长

•  Radio spending in China is still very small with limited audience research – however marketers are increasingly reviewing radio as a cost saving media opportunity, especially as car ownership grows. 随着汽⻋车保有量的不断增⻓长，广告主对于广播媒体的投放越来越高，使得广播媒体价格持续上涨。

•  The forecast for Beijing and Shanghai are pared back to a relative low rate, assuming that the terrible traffic jam and stricter legislation on driving license have forced more people to take public transportation in those metropolitans. 北京上海等超大城市，广播媒体价格增⻓长趋势落后于整体水平，或与交通阻塞、公共交通使用率上升、私家⻋车增量受限牌影响有关。

Nett Ave. 21%

Y2013 Media Inflation Forecasts - Local Radio 2013年媒体价格增⻓长预测–地方广播



27


24%

35% 30%

20% 19% 22% 23% 24%

43%

21% 26%

18% 22%

31%

24% 19%

16% 19% 20% 20%

39%

18%

26%

18%

Xi'an 西安

Zhengzhou 郑州

Changsha ⻓长沙

Suzhou 苏州

Wuxi 无锡

Jinan 济南

Ningbo 宁波

Kunming 昆明


Shenyang 沈阳

Nanchang 南昌

Shantou 汕头


Nett Inflation % 净价格涨幅 Local Radio Media Inflation

地方广播媒体价格增⻓长

Nett Ave. 21%

Y2013 Media Inflation Forecasts - Local Radio 2013年媒体价格增⻓长预测–地方广播


•  The up going trend of private car penetrations and historical lower price levels in the secondary-tier cities, directly lead to the growth in radio Rate card and Nett price 二线城市汽⻋车普及率迅速上升以及历史性广播价格低于一线发达城市，直接带动广播价格预测上涨。

•  Local radio stations start to offer more localized and differentiated services, which helps lifting the audience loyalty, advertiser’s add-value, and the price growth rate as well.地方广播提供更加细分的本地化服务，使得广播用户粘度和广告主附加值同步提升，广告刊例价净价也上涨。


28


15% 16% 13% 13% 13%

10% 10% 12%

11% 13%

5% 5%

13% 13% 11% 11% 11%

10% 9%

11% 9% 11%

5% 5%

Beijing 北京

Shanghai 上海

Shenzhen 深圳

Guangzhou 广州

Chengdu 成都

Tianjin 天津

Nanjing 南京

Chongqing 重庆

Wuhan 武汉

Hangzhou 杭州

Fuzhou 福州

Harbin 哈尔滨


Nett Inflation % 净价格涨幅 Local OOH Media Inflation

地方户外媒体价格增⻓长

•  Going digital is the inevitable next step for OOH media. Marketers are investing more in subway ads, LCD and mobile TV in the first-tier cities 户外广告的网络与数码码化，是一个不可避免的趋势。地铁、楼宇和移动电视等网络型的户外媒体，在一二线城市越来越多的得到广告主的喜爱。

•  The government reorganization and regulation on OOH, reduced the media inventory and added the operation risk occasionally, which affects the media price fluctuation in the first-tier cities. 一线城市尤其易受到政府户外广告整顿的影响，户外广告供给量减少，价格上涨趋势明显。

Nett Ave. 9%

Y2013 Media Inflation Forecasts - Local Network OOH 2013年媒体价格增⻓长预测–地方网络型户外媒体



29


11% 9% 9%

10% 8%

10%

7% 9% 9% 10%

5% 5%

10% 8% 8% 8%

7% 8% 6% 7% 8% 8%

5% 5%

Xi'an 西安

Zhengzhou 郑州

Changsha ⻓长沙

Suzhou 苏州

Wuxi 无锡

Jinan 济南

Ningbo 宁波

Kunming 昆明


Shenyang 沈阳

Nanchang 南昌

Shantou 汕头


Nett Inflation % 净价格涨幅 Local OOH Media Inflation

地方户外媒体价格增⻓长

Nett Ave. 9%

Y2013 Media Inflation Forecasts - Local Network OOH 2013年媒体价格增⻓长预测–地方网络型户外媒体


•  Inflations of local OOH also appear in other cities, but are approximately below average. 非重点城市的网络型户外媒体涨幅低于平均值。

•  The OOH media environment in lower-tier cities are even more complicated. Many of OOH agencies and vendors are micro-businesses and the industry trend is starting clearly ripe for rationalization and monopolization.非重点城市的户外媒体情况更为复杂，与一线主要城市不同，非重点城市有大量小型而分散的户外广告代理商，激烈的竞争和繁杂的生态环境使户外涨幅低于重点城市平均值。机构融合与资源合并将是未来的趋势。


30


4 Top Markets Detailed Analysis 分市场媒体价格增⻓长分析


•  Acting as the political and economic center of China, Beijing is the natural battleground for advertisers. Sharp YOY increase in media inflation is inevitable. 作为中国政治、经济中心，北京是广告主必争之地，每年各类型媒体均出现较大幅度的涨价。

•  Limited media inventory and higher media operating costs in Beijing give rise to the media price. 有限的资源，更高的媒体运营成本，使得北京市场媒体资源更加紧俏。

22%

11% 19%

15% 14% 11% 15% 13%

TV电视 Newspapers报纸 Radio广播 OOH户外


Nett Inflation % 净价格涨幅 Beijing Media Inflation

北京媒体价格增⻓长


32

Beijing 北京


Shanghai 上海

•  SMG, formed as a single entity with cross-media branches, has expanded its capability and influence across regions. The place of monopolization will lift the regional Rate card and Nett price .上海东方传媒集团（SMG）具有强大实力与资本支持，平台运营与内容制作均处于一线，其影响力和品牌号召力正在超越华东地区的局限，也因此垄断性地位拉高上海地区媒体价格。

•  Combined with the latest technology and interactive creativity, OOH of Shanghai exceed the other cities in audience acceptance and advertiser’s investment. Prices of prime locations will witness a dramatic increase. 上海户外广告，结合新技术的互动创新形式较多，受众接受程度与广告效果均高于其他地区，促使广告主加大户外广告投放，重点地段广告价格上涨明显。

20%

10% 18% 16% 17%

9% 14% 13%

TV 电视 Newspapers 报纸 Radio 广播 OOH 户外


Nett Inflation % 净价格涨幅 Shanghai Media Inflation

上海媒体价格增⻓长


33


35%

10%

30%

13%

33%

9%

25%

11%




Guangzhou 广州

•  Guangdong TV media will be integrated in 2013, the Guangdong East company plan to monopolize Guangdong TV and Guangzhou TV. The monopoly will lead to prices dictatorship and thus price increase. 广东地区电视媒体自2013年起将会省市网整合，将由广东东电公司集中包盘垄断广东市场

•  Limited advertising inventory on radio causes huge price increase. 广州广播媒体资源紧俏导致大幅度的价格涨幅。

Guangzhou Media Inflation 广州媒体价格增⻓长


34


Shenzhen 深圳

•  Shenzhen TV media prices are forecast to grow more slowly than other markets, thus a more stable inflation. 深圳地区电视媒体价格涨幅低于市场平均水平。

Shenzhen Media Inflation 深圳媒体价格增⻓长

12% 7%

15% 13% 11% 5%

12% 11%





35


Changsha ⻓长沙

•  Car ownership increase contribute to increase in radio listenership.⻓长沙地区城市汽⻋车拥有量的增加使得收听率的上升，媒体资源紧俏。

•  The reduction of OOH inventory caused by government re-organization, drives the price increase in Changsha.因政府行为对户外广告资源进行了整改，使得⻓长沙地区户外广告资源的减少，从而导致了价格的增⻓长。

Changsha Media Inflation ⻓长沙媒体价格增⻓长

16% 11%

30%

9% 11% 8%

24%

8%





36


Chengdu 成都

•  TV and Radio prices will grow faster than other media in Chengdu. 成都地区电视广播两大媒体涨幅最明显。

•  No notable price growth for Newspapers in Chengdu this year, in order to keep its competitiveness in the market.成都地区报纸媒体价格无涨幅，以保持在当地市场的竞争性。

Chengdu Media Inflation 成都媒体价格增⻓长

16%

7%

24%

13% 14%

5%

21%

11%





37


Chongqing 重庆

•  Chongqing, the key South West city, benefited from substantial investments and development, will remain a consistent growth in media price. 重庆作为西南地区最重要的中心城市，受益于经济发展等因素的影响，各类型的媒体价格涨幅均较高。

Chongqing Media Inflation 重庆媒体价格增⻓长

15% 15%

26%

12% 12% 13%

23%

11%





38


8% 9%

24%

5% 5% 9%

18%

5%




Fuzhou 福州

•  High competition between Provincial TV and City TV, hence curb the price increase. 福州地区电视媒体的省（福建台）、市台竞争激烈，导致电视价格涨幅不明显。

•  Stations’ sales targets drive prices increase in Fuzhou. 福州广播媒体的销售目标增加导致广播涨幅明显。

Fuzhou Media Inflation 福州媒体价格增⻓长


39


Hangzhou 杭州

•  Media competition is intense in Hangzhou, but price increases are limited to annual rate card adjustment.杭州地区媒体间相互竞争激烈，各自给到优惠政策，涨幅仅为年度常规水平。

•  Increase of car ownership and listenership give a rise to Radio price in Hangzhou.杭州地区城市汽⻋车拥有量的增加使得收听率的上升，同样使得广播媒体资源紧俏。

Hangzhou Media Inflation 杭州媒体价格增⻓长

9% 10%

20% 13%

9% 7%

17% 11%





40


•  Increase of car ownership and listenership give a rise to Radio price in Harbin.哈尔滨地区城市汽⻋车拥有量的增加使得收听率的上升，同样使得广播媒体资源紧俏。

15% 9%

22%

5% 10% 8%

22%

5%




Harbin 哈尔滨

Harbin Media Inflation 哈尔滨媒体价格增⻓长


41


15% 8%

22%

10% 12% 6%

19%

8%




Jinan 济南

•  Radio prices growths outstrip all other media in Jinan. 济南地区广播媒体价格涨幅最明显。

Jinan Media Inflation 济南媒体价格增⻓长


42


Kunming 昆明

•  The merger of Yunnan and Kunming TV station causes remarkable increase in price. 云南省台和昆明市台被同一家代理公司统一垄断经营,刊例大幅涨价。

•  Local government policies to control OOH advertising reduce the OOH inventory and stimulate price growth correspondently. 昆明因政府整顿，导致户外广告资源的减少，从而导致户外广告价格的增⻓长。

Kunming Media Inflation 昆明媒体价格增⻓长

24%

10%

24%

9% 15%

8%

20%

7%





43


24%

4%

26%

5%

15%

4%

26%

5%




Nanchang 南昌

Nanchang Media Inflation 南昌媒体价格增⻓长


44

•  Growth rate of TV and Radio media prices in Nanchang are above other media. 南昌地区仍是电视，广播两大媒体涨幅最明显。


Nanjing 南京

•  Nett inflation are higher than Rate card inflation, due to the stricter buying policies and lower bonus giveaways, .南京地方电视台的政策调整，导致赠播资源的减少，从而使得净价涨幅高于刊例涨幅。

•  Jiangsu TV and local Nanjing channels continue to improve quality of their programs – attracting more audience & ad spend, and pushing up prices. 江苏省电视台及南京地方电视台在近年来不断的提升节目质量，使得节目收视率有了较高的提升，节目价格也随之有了较大的上涨。

Nanjing Media Inflation 南京媒体价格增⻓长

19%

9%

25%

10%

23%

8%

21%

9%





45


Ningbo 宁波

•  TV and Radio price increases outstrip all other media in Ningbo. 宁波地区仍是电视，广播两大媒体涨幅最明显。

Ningbo Media Inflation 宁波媒体价格增⻓长

12% 10%

23%

7% 8% 8%

20%

6%





46


12% 6%

18%

5% 10%

4%

18%

5%




Shantou 汕头

Shantou Media Inflation 汕头媒体价格增⻓长


47

•  Radio price increases outstrip all other media in Ningbo. 汕头地区仍是广播涨幅最明显。


23%

10%

21%

10% 11% 8%

18%

8%




Shenyang 沈阳

•  Provincial TV channels and Local TV channels merged in Y2012, Shenyang TV media inflation is relatively stable in Y2013, but resources is tight. 2012年沈阳地区电视媒体省市台资源合并，2013年沈阳地区电视广告媒体格涨幅相对平稳，广告资源紧张。

•  Same situation in radio, the merger of provincial channels and local channels contribute to the high inflation. 沈阳地区广播媒体随着市场需求的增加，媒体价格也有明显的涨幅。

Shenyang Media Inflation 沈阳媒体价格增⻓长


48


22%

9%

43%

9% 16%

7%

39%

8%





•  Hebei TV merged with target sales revenue rising from 1 billion to 1.4 billion.河北省台从分频道经营变成统一经营，目标营业额从10亿增⻓长为14亿，媒体价格应声上涨。

•  The up going trend of private car penetrations and lower price levels against first-tier cities, directly lead to the highest inflation in radio . 该地区汽⻋车普及率迅速上升以及媒体价格相对较低，从而导致广播媒体价格涨幅明显。

Shijiazhuang Media Inflation 石家庄媒体价格增⻓长


49


Suzhou 苏州

•  Radio price increases outstrip all other media in Suzhou. 苏州地区仍是广播涨幅最明显。

Suzhou Media Inflation 苏州媒体价格增⻓长

7% 10%

20%

10% 7% 8%

19%

8%





50


Tianjin 天津

•  The continuing improvements in Tianjin TV program’s quality have pushed the prices up.天津地区电视媒体进行节目管理，调整编排，调整与卫视相同比例涨幅。

Tianjin Media Inflation 天津媒体价格增⻓长

17% 15%

25%

10% 14% 13%

22%

10%





51


Wuhan 武汉

•  Nett inflation are higher than Rate card inflation, due to the stricter buying policies and lower bonus volume. 武汉地区电视台的政策调整导致赠播资源的减少，从而使得净价涨幅高于刊例涨幅。

Wuhan Media Inflation 武汉媒体价格增⻓长

19%

9%

30%

11%

21%

5%

25%

9%





52


Wuxi 无锡

•  The up going trend of private car penetrations and lower price levels against first-tier cities, directly lead to the highest inflation in radio . 该地区汽⻋车普及率迅速上升以及媒体价格相对较低，从而导致广播媒体价格涨幅明显。

Wuxi Media Inflation 无锡媒体价格增⻓长

13% 7%

19%

8% 10% 5%

16%

7%





53


Xi’an 西安

•  As Xi’an TV station and Radio station merged, higher inflation in these two media is expected. 西安地区完成两台（电视+电台）合并，统管电视及广播, 导致电视，广播媒体涨幅明显。

•  In order to achieve the revenue targets that the cultural industry occupy 8% of the total GDP, Xi’an market’s media inflation in 2013 is high.作为西北最大省份，传统文化渊源根基深厚，为跻身文化强省，省宣传部下达指标，文化产业GDP必须占到省总GDP的8%以上。为达到此目标，西安地区媒体价格整体涨幅明显。

Xi’an Media Inflation 西安媒体价格增⻓长

28%

10%

24%

11%

20%

8%

22%

10%





54


Zhengzhou 郑州

•  Advertising resources are tight in Zhengzhou, which mainly derived from the TV station monopoly and policy inelastic. 郑州地区的广告资源紧张，媒体垄断，政策无弹性。

•  Radio had the highest growth rate due to the increasing car ownership and listenership. 郑州地区广播媒体价格增⻓长较明显。源于该地区城市汽⻋车拥有量的增加使得收听率的上升，媒体资源紧俏。

Zhengzhou Media Inflation 郑州媒体价格增⻓长

21%

12%

35%

9%

18% 11%

31%

8%





55


APPENDIX ABOUT DATA


National Media Inflation Summary

Y2012- 2012 Dec.

Y2013- 2012 Dec.

Y2013- 2013 Jul.

Y2012- 2012 Dec.

Y2013- 2012 Dec.

Y2013- 2013 Jul.

TV 电视 21% 22% 19% 20% 17% 15%

Digital 网络 23% 22% 19% 15% 16% 13%

Magazines 杂志 13% 13% 12% 5% 8% 8%

Newspapers 报纸 12% 11% 9% 10% 9% 8%

Radio 广播 24% 20% 22% 19% 18% 21%

Moblie 手机类 20% 27% 20% 10% 18% 13%

OOH 户外 10% 12% 12% 8% 8% 9%

MOVIE 影院媒体 - - 25% - - 15%

Media Ratecard Inf lat ion % 刊例价格涨幅 Nett Inf lat ion % 净价格涨幅

Data Source 数据来源: R3

57


Local Media Inflation Summary

TV电视

Newspapers报纸

Radio广播

OOH户外

TV电视

Newspapers报纸

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Beij ing 22% 11% 19% 15% 14% 11% 15% 13%Shanghai 20% 10% 18% 16% 17% 9% 14% 13%Guangzhou 35% 10% 30% 13% 33% 9% 25% 11%Shenzhen 12% 7% 15% 13% 11% 5% 12% 11%Chengdu 16% 7% 24% 13% 14% 5% 21% 11%Tianjin 17% 15% 25% 10% 14% 13% 22% 10%Nanjing 19% 9% 25% 10% 23% 8% 21% 9%Chongqing 15% 15% 26% 12% 12% 13% 23% 11%Wuhan 19% 9% 30% 11% 21% 5% 25% 9%Hangzhou 9% 10% 20% 13% 9% 7% 17% 11%Xi'an 28% 10% 24% 11% 20% 8% 22% 10%Zhengzhou 21% 12% 35% 9% 18% 11% 31% 8%Changsha 16% 11% 30% 9% 11% 8% 24% 8%Suzhou 7% 10% 20% 10% 7% 8% 19% 8%Wuxi 13% 7% 19% 8% 10% 5% 16% 7%Jinan 15% 8% 22% 10% 12% 6% 19% 8%Ningbo 12% 10% 23% 7% 8% 8% 20% 6%Kunming 24% 10% 24% 9% 15% 8% 20% 7%Shij iazhuang 22% 9% 43% 9% 16% 7% 39% 8%Shenyang 23% 10% 21% 10% 11% 8% 18% 8%Fuzhou 8% 9% 24% 5% 5% 9% 18% 5%Harbin 15% 9% 22% 5% 10% 8% 22% 5%Nanchang 24% 4% 26% 5% 15% 4% 26% 5%Shantou 12% 6% 18% 5% 10% 4% 18% 5%

MarketRatecard Inflation %刊例价格涨幅

Nett Inflation %净价格涨幅

Data Source 数据来源: R3 58


APPENDIX ABOUT R3


About R3 关于胜三 •  R3 is a global marketing consultancy in the US, Asia, Europe and

LATAM. We focus on improving the effectiveness and efficiency of marketers and their agencies. Founded in 2002, we work with eight of the world’s top twenty global marketers.

胜三(R3)是美国、亚洲、欧洲和拉丁美洲最大的独立营销顾问公司，致力于帮助广告主及其广告公司提升营销效率及有效性。公司成立于2002年，与全球顶尖的20家广告主中的8家保持⻓长期良好的合作关系

•  Our work includes consulting to find , pay and keep the best agencies. We also analyze and audit media spends and provide consultancy on marketing ROI.

我们的核心业务分为两大板块，一方面是帮助营销者寻找合适的营销代理公司、谈判费用体系、并经营⻓长期合作关系。另一方面是向各大领导品牌提供媒介投放审计、衡量评估各种赞助和合作项目的效果以及整体营销传播的投资回报率。

•  For more information, visit www.rthree.com, write to [email protected] or call +8610 5900 4733

详情请登录我们的网站www.rthree.com，联系我们： [email protected]，+8610 5900 4733

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IMPROVING THE EFFECTIVENESS & EFFICIENCY OF MARKETERS & THEIR AGENCIES 61 52


Thank YOU

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r3's 2013 china's media inflation trend report

Marketing