Reducing the WorldReducing the World’’s s Carbon FootprintCarbon FootprintAn Indian PerspectiveAn Indian Perspective

LeenaLeena SrivastavaSrivastava

How can India Contribute?How can India Contribute?

As an emerging economy experiencing As an emerging economy experiencing strong economic growth yet housing a strong economic growth yet housing a very large number of poor, India needs tovery large number of poor, India needs toFocus on building adaptive capacityFocus on building adaptive capacityIdentify and start implementing adaptation Identify and start implementing adaptation measuresmeasuresFollow low carbon development pathwaysFollow low carbon development pathways

Carbon IntensityCarbon Intensity

of economy is reducingof economy is reducing

CO2 Emissions Intensity

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031Year

(kgC

O2 /

$PP

P )

Planned anticipatory adaptation has the potential to reduce vulnerability and realize opportunities associated with climate change

Adaptation

Planned and anticipatory

Autonomous and reactive

Source: IPCC TAR

Adaptation - the process

Opportunities to enhance adaptive capacity linked to development aspects: e.g., irrigated vs. rainfed

Mixed farming in village Anghora

Rainfed farming in village Lakhakheri Umat

Source: TERI, 2003

Differential Capacities Differential Capacities -- AnantapurAnantapur

Sharp decline in water tables registered

Source: TERI, 2003

Normal water level

Normal water level

Normal water levelNormal water level

Bore well installation is comparatively costly, water resources are unequally distributed in favour of wealthy landowners at the expense of small and marginal farmers. Region mostly rainfed

Scope for Intervention: Scope for Intervention: OpportunitiesOpportunities

Revitalize cooperatives, credit institutionsRevitalize cooperatives, credit institutionsIntroduce shortIntroduce short--term loans with low interest rates for farmersterm loans with low interest rates for farmersStrengthen and empower local institutions (Strengthen and empower local institutions (SHGsSHGs), WUAs ), WUAs

Enrich technological base in Enrich technological base in agriagri--information and its disseminationinformation and its disseminationCreate opportunities for offCreate opportunities for off--farm farm employment by strengthening agriemployment by strengthening agri--processing units and cooperativesprocessing units and cooperativesBridge the gap for irrigation potential; Bridge the gap for irrigation potential; created and utilised created and utilised

IndexIndex--based weather risk insurance for based weather risk insurance for agriculture in India agriculture in India

Automatic adjustment triggered by climate Automatic adjustment triggered by climate information information Use of pilot approaches to iteratively refine Use of pilot approaches to iteratively refine program deliveryprogram deliveryDelivery through local organisations Delivery through local organisations ((SHGsSHGs) to build in two) to build in two--way communication way communication channelschannelsIntegrates concerns of the communities in Integrates concerns of the communities in policy making processpolicy making process

Scope for Intervention: opportunities Scope for Intervention: opportunities

Scope for Intervention: Opportunities Scope for Intervention: Opportunities

Watershed development Watershed development and management and management

Area development Area development through land and soil through land and soil conservation initiativesconservation initiatives

Activities relating to Activities relating to construction & restoration construction & restoration of tanksof tanks

Recharge of ground Recharge of ground water reservoirswater reservoirs

Adaptation Options Adaptation Options -- Coastal Areas Coastal Areas Prevent or phasePrevent or phase--out development in coastal areas out development in coastal areas vulnerable to erosion, inundation, and stormvulnerable to erosion, inundation, and storm--surge surge flooding.flooding.Use "hard" or "soft" structures to protect coasts.Use "hard" or "soft" structures to protect coasts.Implement storm warning systems & evacuation Implement storm warning systems & evacuation plans.plans.Protect and restore wetlands, estuaries, and Protect and restore wetlands, estuaries, and floodplains to preserve essential habitat for floodplains to preserve essential habitat for fisheries.fisheries.Modify and strengthen fisheries management Modify and strengthen fisheries management institutions & policies to promote conservation of institutions & policies to promote conservation of fisheries.fisheries.

Source: IPCC TAR

Adaptation Interventions Adaptation Interventions

Costs likely to be high Costs likely to be high Identify and prioritize adaptation options Identify and prioritize adaptation options

(e.g. heat(e.g. heat--resistant varieties, early warning systems, resistant varieties, early warning systems, enhance water storage, strengthen extension services)enhance water storage, strengthen extension services)

Greater policy support required to trigger Greater policy support required to trigger massive action in addressing the risksmassive action in addressing the risksIntegrate national development policies into Integrate national development policies into a sustainable development framework that a sustainable development framework that complements adaptationcomplements adaptation

Need financial and technical resources to Need financial and technical resources to strengthen adaptation efforts strengthen adaptation efforts

IndiaIndia’’s Growth Imperatives Growth Imperative

Challenges Challenges ……EnergyEnergy

Access to energy servicesAccess to energy servicesMMore than 75% of rural and 22% of urban ore than 75% of rural and 22% of urban households still depend on wood as the primary households still depend on wood as the primary source of energy for cooking source of energy for cooking

Figure 1 Dis tr ibution (%) of rural hous e holds by pr im ary s ource of e ne rgy us e d for cook ing

76 .5

10 .6

5 .4

7 .4

1 .1

0 20 40 60 80 100

Fire w ood

Dung Cake

LPG

Others

No cooking arrangement

Fuel

sou

rce

% hous e holds

Energy Consumption Must Energy Consumption Must IncreaseIncrease

57% of rural population with no access to 57% of rural population with no access to ElectricityElectricityPeak and energy shortages Peak and energy shortages –– 13.5 % 13.5 % and 9.9 % (2006and 9.9 % (2006--07)07)Per capita electricity Per capita electricity

World 2429World 2429US 13066US 13066India 553India 553

Energy FutureEnergy FutureEnergy use in BAU

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Year

(mto

e)

Solar +w ind

Nuclear

Hydro (large +small)Natural Gas

Oil

Coal

Total primary commercial energy increases 7.5 times (CAGR: 6.9%)

Coal and Oil remain dominant fuels

Rapid Growth Not Expected to Take Rapid Growth Not Expected to Take India to Current Developed World India to Current Developed World

Levels Even by 2031Levels Even by 2031

Per capita cement and steel requirementsPer capita cement and steel requirements

Vehicle Ownership, 2004Vehicle Ownership, 2004

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000

GDP per capita (dollars)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

vehi

cles

per

1,0

00 p

eopl

e

Italy

UKJapan

USA

Germany

France Canada

KoreaMalaysiaMexico

BrazilThailand

IndonesiaChina

India

The potential for increased vehicle ownership in emerging markets, in particular China and India, is huge

© OECD/IEA (2006)

Per Capita Electricity & Motorized Per Capita Electricity & Motorized Transportation DemandsTransportation Demands

Energy Security: High Import Energy Security: High Import DependencyDependency

Fuel Import in 2031Coal import: 1438 MT

~4 times of consumption in 2001

Import dependency: 78%

Oil import: 680 MTImport dependency: 93%

Gas import: 93 BCMImport dependency: 67%

Targeting sustainability concerns can Targeting sustainability concerns can play a role in mitigating GHG emissionsplay a role in mitigating GHG emissions

Reducing trend of Energy and CO2 Emissions IntensityReducing trend of Energy and CO2 Emissions Intensity

Energy Intensity

0.010

0.012

0.014

0.016

0.018

0.020

0.022

0.024

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Year

kgoe

/Rs

of G

DP

LOWEFF BAU NUC EFF HYB

CO2 Emission Intensity

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Yearkg

CO

2/R

s of

GD

P

LOWEFF BAU NUC EFF HYB

Low carbon futures for the economy can be targeted through the introduction of ESTs

enhanced energy efficiency; shift towards renewables and cleaner power generation options etc.

Energy SecurityEnergy SecurityFuel Imports in 2031

917

508

680

407

91 91

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

BAU HYB BAU HYB BAU HYB

Coal Oil Gas

mto

e

Major natural gas trade Major natural gas trade movementsmovements

Renewed Interest in Renewed Interest in HydropowerHydropower

World Hydropower Potential

The remaining hydropower potential is still large in developing countries

Electricity Generating Cost Ranges Electricity Generating Cost Ranges of Main Technologiesof Main Technologies

Gas-fired electricity is no longer the cheapest form of generation; prices assumed to remain between $6 and $7 per MBtu

Coal is now the cheapest source in many countries

3

4

5

6

7

8

Nuclear CCGT Coal steam IGCC Wind

US ce

nts pe

r kW

h

Sensitivity of generating costs Sensitivity of generating costs to fossilto fossil--fuel pricesfuel prices

Nuclear can compete with gas at a gas price above $5.70/MBtu –corresponding to $40-$45 per barrel of oil

Mitigation InterventionsMitigation Interventions

Need access to clean energy resourcesNeed access to clean energy resourcesTechnology frontier needs to be pushed Technology frontier needs to be pushed Affordability issues need to be addressedAffordability issues need to be addressed

Reduced costsReduced costsIncreased incomesIncreased incomes

Infrastructure expansion should be Infrastructure expansion should be ““cleanclean””

Thank youThank you