REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE FORESIGHTA TECHNOLOGY USER ORIENTED FORESIGHT-APPROACH FOR COLLECTIVE AND ORGANIZATIONAL LEARNING ABOUT THE NEED FOR NEW TECHNOLOGIES

Eckhard Störmer, Bernhard Truffer

Eawag Cirus

Third International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):

Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making

16th- 17th October 2008

1. Overview

Learning gaps in infrastructure planning

RIF Method

Results

Outlook

Overview

Concepts

Method

Results

Outlook

2. Learning gaps in infrastructure sectors

Infrastructure sectors have „strong“ regimes Large technical systems Localized, technocratic decision procedures Mutual invisibility between users and operators

Strong tendencies for learning gaps

Short sighted planning routines Blinding out uncertainties in context conditions Narrowing the search space for alternatives Optimizing for single goals (costs, acceptance)

Path-dependencies are reinforced

Transitions ahead? Bring in uncertainty, ambivalence and radical

alternatives

Overview

Concepts

Method

Results

Outlook

3. The RIF method

Overview

Concepts

Method

Results

Outlook

Constructive principles Enlarge range of participants Reference points of decision in 25 to 35 years Maximize uncertainties in context conditions Sort out strategic alternatives (not optimal solutions) Multiple goals and value perspectives

From a technocratic to a discursive, participative mode of strategic planning (Regional Infrastructure Foresight)

Application contexts Three „typical“ organizations in sanitation in CH Openness to „new“ approaches

Method structure

RIF-WS 1

RIF-WS 2

FinalPresen-tation

RIF

te

am

Co

re

tea

mS

take

-h

old

ersScenario

developmentAssessment

Presentationof strategy

Situation andactor analysis

Strategic implications

De

cisi

on

m

ake

rs

Scenarios

Strategicplan

1

2

3

4 0 1 2 3

Rankings

months0 5 7 9

Options,Goals

Pro

du

cts

Pro

cess

Ac

tors

Activities

Analytical dimensions

goals

weightedgoal tree

strategic bundle of goals

strategicstrategic

planplan

context

keyfactors

scenarios

options

levers

strategic

options

Overview

Concepts

Method

Results

Outlook

Inputs Context factors Options Values

Outputs Strategy plans

Selected case studiesKlettgau (S)

Neugut (Z)

Kiesental (B)

4. Results

Overview

Concepts

Method

Results

Outlook

Decision elements constructed by participants B: 4 Scenarios, 3 options S: 4 Scenarios, 4 options Z: 3 Scenarios, 4 options Assessed from citizen‘s and industry‘s perspective

22 rankings of options (11 scenarios by „virtual“ citizens and industry representatives)

80 evaluations of option/scenario pairs (relative to expected preferences of future citizens and industry)

40 evaluations of option/scenario pairs (considering sustainability goals in a balanced way)

Suitability vs. conflicts (all cases, stakeholder perspectives)Implement

Don‘t consider

Consideropportunities

Consider risks

Address conflict

positive

antagonistic

negative

ambivalent

1

2

3

4

0 1 2 3

SCdez

ZAERZ

BIdec

SAdez

SBdez

SCLig

ZBGlatt

ZBKern

ZCKern

BIVLig

SAinfZAGlatt

BILig

BIIILig

SDfus

SBinf

BIVdec

SDdezSBLig

ZAKern

BIIIZen

SALig

ZCGlatt

ZBERZ

BIIdec

SDinf

SDLig

BIIZen

ZCERZ

BIIIdec

BIILig

SCfus

SCinf

ZAMU

BIZen

BIVZen

SBfus

SAfus ZBMU

ZCMU

Ave

rag

e o

f ev

alu

ati

on

s fr

om

cit

izen

s an

d i

nd

ust

ry

Difference in evaluation between citizens and industry

Overview

Concepts

Method

Results

Outlook

Ranking of options in Kiesental (B)

Centralization

Incremental change

Radical changepositive

antagonistic

negative

ambivalent

1

2

3

4

0 1 2 3

SCdez

ZAERZ

BIdec

SAdez

SBdez

SCLig

ZBGlatt

ZBKern

ZCKern

BIVLig

SAinfZAGlatt

BILig

BIIILig

SDfus

SBinf

BIVdec

SDdezSBLig

ZAKern

BIIIZen

SALig

ZCGlatt

ZBERZ

BIIdec

SDinf

SDLig

BIIZen

ZCERZ

BIIIdec

BIILig

SCfus

SCinf

ZAMU

BIZen

BIVZen

SBfus

SAfus ZBMU

ZCMU

Ave

rag

e o

f ev

alu

ati

on

s fr

om

cit

izen

s an

d i

nd

ust

ry

Difference in evaluation between citizens and industry

Overview

Concepts

Method

Results

Outlook

Multi-Utility

Regional concentration

Incremental system change

Radical system change

1

2

3

40 1 2 3

Neugut (Z)

Ave

rag

e o

f ev

alu

atio

ns

fro

m c

itiz

ens

and

in

du

stry

Difference in evaluation between citizens and industry

1

2

3

40 1 2 3

Klettgau (S)

Ave

rag

e o

f ev

alu

atio

ns

fro

m c

itiz

ens

and

in

du

stry

Difference in evaluation between citizens and industry

1

2

3

40 1 2 3

Kiesental (B)

Ave

rag

e o

f ev

alu

atio

ns

fro

m c

itiz

ens

and

in

du

stry

Difference in evaluation between citizens and industry

Ranking of options in all three cases

Overview

Concepts

Method

Results

Outlook

Sustanaibility deficits ?

Overview

Concepts

Method

Results

Outlook

Comparing stakeholder’s with balanced assessment

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

Average ratingcitizens and Industry

Ratingcore team

Kiesental (B)

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

Average ratingcitizens and Industry

Ratingcore team

Klettgau (S)

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

4

Average ratingcitizens and Industry

Ratingcore team

Neugut (Z)

Outcomes

Overview

Concepts

Method

Results

Outlook

Solutions preferred before the RIF process S: Incremental improvement of existing plant B: Forced regional merger (techn. and organ.) Z: Stop regional growth (!)

Strategies considered after RIF process S: Radically new options (dissolve WWTP!) B: Confirmation but identification of potential

conflicts and sustainability deficits Z: More pronounced interaction with customers

(esp. Industry) largely invisible before and support of pro-active strategy

Process evaluation High level of satisfaction More reflexive implementation processes

5. Outlook: Learning effects

Overview

Concepts

Method

Results

Outlook

Learning about Understanding of complex urban water

management systems Uncertainties of framework conditions Stakeholders’ value systems and political

discourses Methods in foresight sustainability assessment Alternatives to business as usual and their

outcomes and impacts

Necessary preconditions to overcome path dependencies