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Stewards for Tomorrow East Shore Line Deanery

Data Report

April 2016

Report created by PartnersEdge, LLC

PartnersEdge, LLC is a collaborative

effort between

TeamWorks, International

and Catholic Finance Corporation

TeamWorks, International

7037 20th Avenue S.

Centerville, MN 55038

(651) 429-7340

www.teamworksintl.net

Catholic Finance Corporation

5826 Blackshire Path

Inver Grove Heights, MN 55076

(651) 389-1070

www.catholicfinance.org

This report contains data specific to the East Shore Line Deanery.

All data was obtained from the Archdiocese of Hartford and/or parishes and schools.

It is intended for use by Deanery leaders as they discuss the future

direction of the Deanery and consult with the Archbishop regarding the Stewards for Tomorrow Archdiocesan Pastoral Plan.

This data is to be used in conjunction with the Stewards for Tomorrow Pastoral Planning Guidebook.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1

USE OF REPORT IN CONSULTATION AND PASTORAL PLANNING ............................................................................................................................. 2

INDEX METHODOLOGY & RESULTS ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 4

DEANERY DATA SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 8

U.S. CENSUS DEMOGRAPHICS – RACE & ETHNICITY ...................................................................................................................................................... 11

U.S. CENSUS DEMOGRAPHICS – AGE .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 12

U.S. CENSUS DEMOGRAPHICS – INCOME ................................................................................................................................................................................ 14

CATHOLICITY DEMOGRAPHICS ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15

MASS ATTENDANCE ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19

PASTORAL LEADERSHIP ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 21

SACRAMENT ANALYSIS ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23

PARISH FINANCIAL ANALYSIS........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 25

U.S. CENSUS DEMOGRAPHICS – SCHOOL AGE CHILDREN ........................................................................................................................................... 32

CATHOLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT & PROJECTIONS AND RELIGIOUS EDUCATION PARTICIPATION ANALYSIS ................... 36

CATHOLIC SCHOOL FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................................................................................... 44

APPENDIX MAPS ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 50

1 Stewards for Tomorrow - East Shore Line Deanery Data Report

INTRODUCTION

The Archdiocese of Hartford is currently engaging in a pastoral planning

process that addresses pastoral resources, ministry needs, community

demographics, and financial trends for the next 5 – 10 years.

The Archdiocese has requested PartnersEdge, LLC to provide a detailed,

Deanery-wide demographic and financial analysis for the region. During the

initial phase of the process, specific parish and school information was

utilized to assess the overall condition of the Archdiocese and each Deanery.

For the analysis we combined external demographic data with internal data

and information provided by the Archdiocese to give a more robust analysis.

The external data outlined in this report includes:

U.S. census population data

U.S. census race and ethnicity data

U.S. census age data

U.S. census income data

The external demographic data provided here incorporates population, age,

race/ethnicity, and income data collected during the 2010 U.S. Census. In

addition, external sources of data are utilized to estimate current (2015) and 5-

year projected (2020) demographic data. These external sources include

county-to-county migration data obtained from the Internal Revenue Service,

building permits and housing start information, residential postal delivery

counts obtained from the U.S. Postal Service, as well as data obtained from

other ancillary sources. Demographic data displayed on individual maps is

reported at the census block group level. A census block group is the

smallest geographic unit used by the United States Census Bureau to report

demographic data.

In addition, internal data was reported and integrated into the analysis as well.

This data was obtained from the Archdiocese of Hartford and includes the

following information:

Priest assignment data

Historical and current registered Catholic household data

Historical and current sacramental data

Historical and current Catholic student data

Parish and school financial data

The second phase of the process involved assessing the parishes and schools

based upon specific criteria to form an index. The specific criteria selected

for the development of the index are items that experience has shown to be

significant when considering parish and school viability. The data for each

criteria element was based upon information and statistical data received from

the Archdiocese. The results of the index provided an indication of where

each parish and school placed on a spectrum where there might be a need for

change. The index was classified into 3 groups of “probability of change”:

1) Low probability to remain as is

2) High probability to remain as is

3) Requires additional study

The classification index was developed using a natural breaks classification

scheme, which partitions data based on natural groups in the data distribution

- in this case overall points. A more detailed explanation of the index and the

results can be found under the Index Methodology and Results section of the

report. The index will be used by Archdiocesan and Deanery leadership as a

starting point in the design of parishes and schools within priest resource

parameter and will assist Deanery level consultation to the Archbishop for

the Stewards for Tomorrow Archdiocesan Pastoral Plan. This analysis plus

“sweet spot” analysis (contained in this report) can be used together to assist

in developing future school models.


USE OF REPORT IN CONSULTATION AND PASTORAL PLANNING

The comprehensive Waterbury Deanery Report for parishes and Catholic

schools is intended to inform and support the consultative work of the

ordained, lay leadership, staff, and parishioners within the Archdiocese of

Hartford Stewards for Tomorrow Pastoral Planning Process. The

primary use of this Report is for the ordained, as well as parish and

school leadership groups to provide consultation to the Archdiocese with

regards to:

A. Design of parishes

B. Design of schools

C. Design of Deaneries

This consultation as part of the pastoral planning process acknowledges

several points of reality facing the Archdiocese of Hartford:

1. The responsibilities of the Archbishop are across the entire

archdiocese and differ from the local pastor whose responsibilities

are focused on the local parish, school, and Deanery.

2. The staff, parish leaders, and parishioner primary role is to be

focused on the local parish school, to preserve the status quo, and to

responsibly resist change.

3. Data, research, and analysis has to be blended and balanced with the

local parish, school, and area history, culture, story, and experiences.

4. The Stewards for Tomorrow Pastoral Planning Process is designed to

work with and incorporate the consultation, but is not limited by, or

restricted to that consultation.

5. Consultation is to be grounded in the Stewards for Tomorrow Vision

and operate with in its Guiding Change document. See the Stewards

for Tomorrow Pastoral Planning Guidebook for more details.

Key Points of Consideration for Use of the Deanery Report

The Archdiocese is moving to allow for priest retirement at age

75 which will reduce pastoral resources on the order of – 30 % in

the next ten years

The Archdiocese has successfully modeled the restructuring of

parishes and providing for vibrant parish life and ministry across

two parishes with one pastor

Parishes and schools which are frail in sacramental, attendance,

financial, and facility areas are in many cases unable to be

supported into the future

Quality of ministry, especially the liturgy, the sacraments, and the

Catholic school are driving the redesign of parishes and schools,

in addition to limited pastoral resources

Regardless of structure of parishes and schools, the real

component of pastoral planning that makes the difference is the

local Parish Pastoral Plan and Catholic School Strategic Plan

Demographics provide a consistent and clear picture of the

trends and future conditions that influence, but do not singularly

drive pastoral planning

Sacramental trends, stewardship, liturgy attendance and the

quality of welcoming, preaching, and music, as well as the sense

of belonging and community at the parish level drive pastoral

planning and parish vibrancy

Vibrant parishes support and energize vibrant Catholic schools,

as much as vibrant Catholic schools support and energize

parishes

The Boomer and Millennial generations are key to pastoral

planning in parishes and schools in terms of numbers and impact

on sustainability, ministry, and growth.


If financial conditions and trends in a parish and school are

problematic, short term solutions and optimism typically do not

change the conditions, or underlying factors and influences

Too many liturgies, in too many places, too sparsely attended

typically results in low quality of liturgies and frail parishes

Fewer liturgies, in larger spaces, more than 70 % full, can create

the experiences, sense of community, and quality of liturgy that

results in growth across many aspects of parish life

Catholic school “Sweet Spot” analysis provides an objective view

of the near future of potential for students, IF nothing changes.

In using these tools, start with Sweet Spot Analysis 2 (future

school age children numbers only), and then use Sweet Spot

Analysis 1 (adding in income and Catholicity)

Merging several frail parishes and schools, without identifying

and addressing the underlying factors and conditions, does not

usually lead to sustainable parishes and schools

In areas of increasing low income and new populations, the

traditional approach of tuition in Catholic schools is not working

well across the country. Typically, the real cost of supporting a

school with growing numbers of families who cannot afford

tuition is underestimated to a great degree. Thus philanthropy,

changes in State law regarding charitable contributions,

fundraising, etc. become fundamental structures for schools to be

sustainable.

Parish and school design should not be structured around

individuals, groups, or special interests.

Finance, facilities, and human resource management structures

can be scaled successfully across several parishes and schools

When assessing distances and driving, consider the distance and

driving typically being done for groceries and shopping,

sometimes referred to as “how far to a Walmart?”

Catholic cemeteries require perpetual care funding and

maintenance in accordance with State statutes

The process for transitioning a parish is established by the

Archdiocese and not an item for parish level development


INDEX METHODOLOGY & RESULTS

The following analysis utilized a ranking methodology that assigned a

score to individual parishes and schools based on a set of criteria. The

ranking system will enable leaders to make informed decisions in regards

to recommending parishes and schools for possible restructuring across

the Archdiocese.

To determine the scoring range, an Archdiocesan average was calculated

for most sets of criteria. In some instances, best practices were utilized

for the ranges. A 5 point scoring range was established for the index.

The median data results were used for the mid-point of the range. The

scoring points below and above the mean were determined by data that

was 1 to 2 standard deviations above or below the mean.

The parish criteria included:

Percent of Catholicity

Average annual number of sacraments

Birth to funeral ratio

Mass count as a percentage of households

Number of households

Total population and population change

Archdiocesan obligations

Offertory as a percentage of operating income

Growth in offertory income

Growth in operating income

Average annual net operating surplus or (deficit)

Average household giving

Days cash on hand

Extraordinary revenue as a percentage of total revenue

The Parish Index Results for the Deanery are listed on the following

page. Each parish is listed by classification, based on the analysis

(Map 1).

The school criteria included:

Enrollment and trend

Student cohort survival ratio

Student teacher ratio

Average collected tuition

Average cost to educate

Tuition as a percentage of operating income

Tuition as a percentage of operating expense

Grant/foundation income as a percentage of operating revenue

Parish investment as a percentage of operating revenue

Average net operating surplus or (deficit)

Building capacity usage

Archdiocesan obligations

Note that only PK-8 Archdiocesan schools were analyzed. The

methodology for deriving the scoring ranges is similar to that of the

parishes. The School Index reflects the results for Catholic schools in

the Deanery and are also listed on the following page (Map 2).


PARISH INDEX RESULTS

Low Probability to Remain as is

St. Clare St. Vincent de Paul

St. Elizabeth

High Probability to Remain as is

St. George

Requires Additional Study

Our Lady of Pompeii St. Mary

St. Augustine* St. Monica*

St. Margaret St. Therese

SCHOOL INDEX RESULTS

Low Probability to Remain as is Additional Study Required

St. Vincent de Paul Catholic School** St. Mary Catholic School

Our Lady of Mercy Catholic School

* St. Augustine and St. Monica Merged into St. Ambrose

** St. Vincent de Paul Catholic School - Identified/In process to close


Map 1: East Shore Line Deanery Parish Design Index Group


Map 2: East Shore Line Deanery Catholic School Design Index Group


DEANERY DATA SUMMARY

East Shore Line Deanery is currently comprised of 9 parishes,

3 PK- 8 schools, with 8 priests assigned to parishes who serve 15,650

households with approximately 39,000 parishioners (Map 3). The study

findings from the Long Range Archdiocesan Pastoral Planning Project, Phase

I are summarized in the following three main areas:

Both the priests and the people they are serving are aging

Parishes and schools are shrinking

General financial stability but individual parish and school concerns

Aging Pastors

The age of the current priests serving parishes range from 31 to 77 with a

median age of 62. Assuming a retirement age of 75:

Currently 1 of 8 current priests (12.5%) are eligible to retire today

By 2026, 1 of 8 current priests (12.5%) will be eligible to retire

Aging Parishioners

The parishioners are also aging. The fastest growing age group in parishes is

65 and older. This group grew 15.5% in the last 5 years and is expected to

grow another 14.0% by 2020.

Declining Catholicity and Attendance

In the last 5 years:

The total population in the area has declined by 0.2%

The total number of registered Catholic households declined 8.9%

Based upon October mass counts, the average number of weekend

mass attendees was 8,564 which represent approximately 20.1% of all

registered parishioners

The percentage of registered Catholic households within the Deanery

boundary is approximately 34.8%

Parish Financial Strength and Frailty

Overall, parishes operated with a small surplus

On average, parishes have cash and investment balances of $575,000

with liabilities averaging $51,000

2 parishes operate with annual offertory income of less than $200,000

3 parishes operated with a deficit and averaged annual cumulative

operating deficits of $200,000 and still operated with a net deficit

even after including extraordinary activity

See pages 25 – 30 for additional data and analysis

School Financial Strength and Frailty

Over the last 15 years,

o K-8 enrollment has declined 50.22% from 667 in 2000 to 332 in

2015

o Over the last 15 years, the number of schools has declined from

3 to 2

o The average number of K – 8 students per school has declined

from 222 to 114 with a total current 2015/2016 school year

enrollment of 343

The current building capacity usage of schools is approximately 45%

On average schools operated with a deficit from operations and

created a surplus when including special program net surplus

2 schools had operating deficits with a cumulative total operating

deficit of $91,000

1 school still operated with a deficit even after including special

program net surplus and has been identified for closure

See pages 44 - 49 for additional data and analysis


Map 3: East Shore Line Deanery Group


Deanery and Parish Research and Analysis


U.S. CENSUS DEMOGRAPHICS – RACE & ETHNICITY

Key Findings

Total Population (Appendix Maps 1 - 2)

In 2015, the total population living here was 112,062

Between 2010 and 2015 the total population across the Deanery

declined by 0.2%

By 2020 the total population is expected to increase 0.2% to 112,313

White Population (Appendix Maps 3 - 6)

In 2015, the total population of whites was 97,298 which represents

86.8% of the total population

Between 2010 and 2015 the total population of whites declined by

2.9%

By 2020 the total population of whites is expected to decline another

3.0% to 94,372 where they will comprise 84.0% of the total

population

Persons of Color Population (Appendix Maps 7 - 10)

In 2015 persons of color was 14,764 which represents 13.2% of the

total population

Between 2010 and 2015 the total population of persons of color grew

by 22.9%

In 2015 persons of color comprised 13.2% of the total population

By 2020 the total population of persons of color is expected to grow

another 21.5% to 17,941 where they will comprise 16.0% of the total

population

Hispanic Population (Appendix Maps 11 - 14)

In 2015, the total population of Hispanics was 7,360 which

represents 6.6% of the total population.

Between 2010 and 2015 the total Hispanic population grew by 28.4%

By 2020, the total Hispanic population is expected to grow another

27.5% to 9,387 where they will comprise 8.4% of the total population

Individual Races 2015 % of Population

Black Population 1.8% (Appendix Maps 15 - 18)

Other Races Populations 1.4% (Appendix Maps 19 - 22)

Asian Populations 3.4% (Appendix Maps 23 - 26)

American Indian Populations 0.1% (Appendix Maps 27 - 30)

(Note – other races are those persons who identify as a race other than those listed,

two or more races, or as Hawaiian/Pacific Islanders).

TABLE 1: POPULATION & RACE DEMOGRAPHICS BY DEANERY BOUNDARY

2015-2020

Race Number % Number % Number % % Change

White 100,235 89.3% 97,298 86.8% 94,372 84.0% -3.0%

Black 1,743 1.6% 1,996 1.8% 2,256 2.0% 13.1%

Am. Indian 116 0.1% 125 0.1% 134 0.1% 7.5%

Asian 3,121 2.8% 3,765 3.4% 4,424 3.9% 17.5%

Hispanic 5,734 5.1% 7,360 6.6% 9,387 8.4% 27.5%

Other 1,303 1.2% 1,518 1.4% 1,739 1.5% 14.6%

Totals 112,252 100% 112,062 100% 112,313 100% 0.2%

2010 2015 2020


U.S. CENSUS DEMOGRAPHICS – AGE

Key Findings

The fastest growing age cohort across the Deanery are those ages 65

and older

Between 2010 and 2015 the total population of those aged 65 and

older grew by 15.5%

By 2020 the total population of those 65 and older is expected to

grow another 14.0%

Currently, the largest generational group in the Deanery is Baby

Boomers who comprise 31.7% of the total population

By 2020, Baby Boomers will still be the largest generational group in

the Deanery and comprise 30.0% of the total population

Age Group Population Change

Table 2 summarizes the total population residing within the Deanery by

different age groups. If we summarize this data even further into

4 separate age groups of:

Age Group

2015 Total

2015 %

2010-15 % Change

2015 -20 % Change

2020 % Est.

0 - 19 24,168 21.6 % - 6.8 % - 7.1 % 20.0%

20 - 44 28,176 25.1 % - 3.8 % + 2.8 % 25.8%

45 - 64 36,334 32.4 % + 1.2 % - 5.7 % 30.5%

65+ 23,384 20.9 % + 15.5 % + 14.0 % 23.7%

See Appendix Maps 31-38

Median Age Change

Further, the median age has been steadily increasing within the Deanery.

In 2010 the overall median age stood at 45.5. In 2015 the median age

was 47.2, and by 2020 it is expected to increase 2.5% to 48.4. These

trends reflect the overall trends seen throughout the rest of the country

as the nation’s baby boom generation enters into retirement years.

Generational Age Change

Another way of examining population age dynamics is by grouping

different age ranges by their generational category. In general, each

generation has different likes, dislikes, and attributes. A person’s birth

date may not always be indicative of their generational characteristics, but

as a common group they have similarities.

In the United States there are currently 6 living generations categorized

by birth date. Here, we combined the oldest 2 generations into 1

category to form 5 generational groups using birth dates and names as

recognized by most demographers. Other common names are given in

parentheses.

Table 3 summarizes the total population residing within the Deanery by

these different generational groups. The birth dates and names of each

generational group reported in this analysis are as follows:

2000-Present: Generation Z (New Silent Generation)

1980-2000: Generation Y (Millennials)

1965-1979: Generation X

1946-1964: Baby Boomers

1900-1945: G.I./Silent Generation (Greatest Generation)


TABLE 2

POPULATION & AGE DEMOGRPAHICS BY DEANERY BOUNDARY

2015-2020

Age Range Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent % Change

0 - 4 4,909 4.4% 4,481 4.0% 4,383 3.9% -2.2%

5 - 9 6,365 5.7% 5,687 5.1% 5,271 4.7% -7.3%

10 - 14 7,715 6.9% 7,086 6.3% 6,466 5.8% -8.7%

15 - 19 6,956 6.2% 6,914 6.2% 6,338 5.6% -8.3%

20 - 24 4,976 4.4% 5,218 4.7% 4,868 4.3% -6.7%

25 - 34 10,138 9.0% 10,839 9.7% 11,310 10.1% 4.3%

35 - 44 14,168 12.6% 12,119 10.8% 12,774 11.4% 5.4%

45 - 54 19,771 17.6% 18,186 16.2% 15,606 13.9% -14.2%

55 - 64 17,000 15.1% 18,148 16.2% 18,650 16.6% 2.8%

65 - 74 10,131 9.0% 13,097 11.7% 15,002 13.4% 14.5%

75 - 84 6,599 5.9% 6,449 5.8% 7,706 6.9% 19.5%

85+ 3,524 3.1% 3,838 3.4% 3,939 3.5% 2.6%

Totals 112,252 100.0% 112,062 100.0% 112,313 100.0% 0.2%

Median Age 45.5 47.2 48.4 2.5%

TABLE 3

POPULATION & GENERATIONAL AGE DEMOGRPAHICS BY DEANERY BOUNDARY

2015-2020

Generation NameNumber Percent Number Percent Number Percent % Change

Generation Z 12,748 11.4% 18,808 16.8% 22,457 20.0% 19.4%

Generation Y 23,294 20.8% 21,415 19.1% 22,609 20.1% 5.6%

Generation X 19,184 17.1% 20,514 18.3% 21,950 19.5% 7.0%

Baby Boomers 36,772 32.8% 35,562 31.7% 33,652 30.0% -5.4%

G.I. / Silent Generation 20,254 18.0% 15,763 14.1% 11,645 10.4% -26.1%

Totals 112,252 100.0% 112,062 100.0% 112,313 100.0% 0.2%

Median Age 45.5 47.2 48.4 2.5%

2000 - Present: Generation Z (New Silent Generation)

1980 - 2000: Generation Y (Millenials)

1965 - 1979: Generation X

1946 - 1964: Baby Boomers

1900 - 1945: G.I./Silent Generation (Greatest Generation)

2010 2015 2020

2010 2015 2020


U.S. CENSUS DEMOGRAPHICS – INCOME

Key Findings

In 2015, the total number of households residing within the

Deanery boundary was 45,661

In 2015, the median household income across the Deanery was

$77,644 (Appendix Map 39)

By 2020, it is projected that the total number of households

residing within the Deanery boundary will grow 0.3% to 45,802

By 2020, the median household income is projected to grow

11.3% to $86,423 (Appendix Map 40)

By 2020, the total number of households is projected to decline

among all income ranges less than $75,000

By 2020, the total number of households is projected to grow

among all income ranges greater than $75,000

Table 4 summarizes the total number of households residing in the

Deanery boundary by different median household income ranges. It

should be noted that the median household income range does not

reflect the actual income of specific households, but instead is based on

the particular geographic region in which each household resides. In this

case the income data is summarized by census block groups. Thus, each

household residing in a particular census block group is assigned the

same median household income value. In addition, the U.S. census

defines a household as all people who occupy a housing unit regardless

of relationship. Thus, a household may consist of a person living alone or

multiple unrelated individuals or families living together, whereas a family

is defined as 2 or more people (one of whom is the householder) related

by birth, marriage, or adoption residing in the same housing unit.

TABLE 4: INCOME DEMOGRAPHICS BY DEANERY BOUNDARY

2015-2020

Households by Income Number % Number % % Change

<$15,000 2,868 6.3% 2,522 5.5% -12.1%

$15,000 - $24,999 2,859 6.3% 2,139 4.7% -25.2%

$25,000 - $34,999 3,411 7.5% 2,374 5.2% -30.4%

$35,000 - $49,999 5,339 11.7% 4,870 10.6% -8.8%

$50,000 - $74,999 7,415 16.2% 7,202 15.7% -2.9%

$75,000 - $99,999 6,757 14.8% 7,136 15.6% 5.6%

$100,000 - $149,999 7,524 16.5% 8,887 19.4% 18.1%

$150,000 - $199,999 5,345 11.7% 5,893 12.9% 10.3%

$200,000+ 4,143 9.1% 4,779 10.4% 15.4%

Totals 45,661 100% 45,802 100% 0.3%

Median Household Income $77,644 $86,423 11.3%

2015 2020


CATHOLICITY DEMOGRAPHICS

Key Findings (Table 5 and Maps 4 - 5)

In 2015, there were 15,650 Catholic households registered at parishes

throughout the Deanery

Between 2010 and 2015 the total number of Catholic households

registered at parishes across the Deanery has declined 8.9% from

17,178 to 15,650

(blank figures in Table 5indicate where data was not made available)

This decline rate is over 44 times that experienced by the overall

population reported by the U.S. Census for the Deanery in the same

time period (0.2% decrease in the overall population)

In 2015, 14,399 out of the 15,650 (92.0%) current registered Catholic

households affiliated with a parish in the Deanery reside within the

Deanery boundary

In 2015 there are an additional 1,483 registered Catholic households

residing within the Deanery boundary who are registered with a

parish in the Archdiocese that is outside of this Deanery

Thus, there are a total of 15,882 registered Catholic households

residing within the Deanery boundary which represents 34.8 % of all

households or a 34.8% Catholicity level in the Deanery

It should be noted that there are a growing number of immigrant

households (namely Hispanic) within the Deanery who are oftentimes

not included in the overall registered membership population.

Also, for this analysis we use the term ‘household’ rather than ‘family’ as

they are defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. The U.S. Census defines a

household as “all people who occupy a housing unit regardless of

relationship. A household may consist of a person living alone or

multiple unrelated individuals or families living together”, whereas a

family is defined as “two or more people related by birth, marriage, or

adoption residing in the same housing unit.” Thus, by these definitions,

a family is always counted as a household but a household is not

necessarily counted as a family.


TABLE 5

EAST SHORE LINE DEANERY- HISTORICAL REGISTERED CATHOLIC HOUSEHOLDS

Parish Name Parish City 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152010-2015

% Change

St. Elizabeth Branford 540 518 507 480 447 402 -25.6%

St. Mary Branford 2,703 2,801 2,960 2,941 2,840 2,191 -18.9%

St. Therese Branford 861 850 841 847 836 758 -12.0%

Our Lady of Pompeii East Haven 2,364 2,366 2,377 2,372 2,349 2,298 -2.8%

St. Clare East Haven 738 683 665 650 608 604 -18.2%

St. Vincent de Paul East Haven 1,600 2,004 2,004 1,742 1,654 1,683 5.2%

St. George Guilford 3,756 3,695 3,765 3,749 3,668 3,580 -4.7%

St. Margaret Madison 2,080 2,193 2,177 2,175 2,196 2,205 6.0%

St. Augustine* North Branford 1,723 1,675 1,658 1,614 1,618 1,428 -17.1%

St. Monica* Northford (North Branford) 813 706 692 516 541 501 -38.4%

Deanery Totals 17,178 17,491 17,646 17,086 16,757 15,650 -8.9%

* St. Augustine and St. Monica Merged to form St. Ambrose

17,17817,491

17,646

17,086

16,757

15,650

14,500

15,000

15,500

16,000

16,500

17,000

17,500

18,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Historical Registered Catholic Parishioners


Map 4: Registered Catholic Household Distribution


Map 5: 2015 Percent Registered Catholics by Census Block Group


MASS ATTENDANCE ANALYSIS

Key Findings

Between 2010 and 2014 the reported total number of weekend

mass attendees across the Deanery has declined 19.8% from

9,161 to 7,346

Between 2010 and 2014 the reported number of weekend mass

attendees as a percentage of the total number of registered

parishioners has declined from 21.6% to 17.7%

Between 2010 and 2014, the average number of weekend mass

attendees was 8,564 which represent approximately 20.1% of all

registered parishioners

Table 6 summarizes the historical weekend mass attendance counts at

parishes across the Deanery between 2010 and 2014 (blank figures indicate

where data was not made available). This data is represented by both the total

number of weekend mass attendees, as well as by the total number of

attendees as a percentage of the total number of registered parishioners.

Mass attendance figures were collected each year on a given weekend in

October. The total number of individual, registered parishioners was

calculated by multiplying the total number of registered Catholic

households by the average household size as reported by the U.S. Census

Bureau for this region. In this case, the average household size is 2.47

individuals per household.


TABLE 6

EAST SHORE LINE DEANERY - HISTORICAL OCTOBER WEEKEND MASS ATTENDANCE COUNTS

Parish Name Parish City2010

Attendees

% of Total

Parishioners

2011

Attendees

% of Total

Parishioners

2012

Attendees

% of Total

Parishioners

2013

Attendees

% of Total

Parishioners

2014

Attendees

% of Total

Parishioners

St. Elizabeth Branford 315 23.6% 328 25.6% 283 22.6% 283 23.9% 540 48.9%

St. Mary Branford 1,536 23.0% 1,665 24.1% 1,457 19.9% 1,401 19.3% 1,366 19.5%

St. Therese Branford 505 23.7% 488 23.2% 477 23.0% 462 22.1% 483 23.4%

Our Lady of Pompeii East Haven 1,183 20.3% 1,130 19.3% 905 15.4% 894 15.3% 707 12.2%

St. Clare East Haven 277 15.2% 235 13.9% 875 53.3% 219 13.6% 403 26.8%

St. Vincent de Paul East Haven 784 19.8% 753 15.2% 753 15.2% 777 18.1% 746 18.3%

St. George Guilford 1,561 16.8% 1,629 17.8% 1,567 16.8% 1,655 17.9% 1,528 16.9%

St. Margaret Madison 1,783 34.7% 1,788 33.0% 0.0% 1,313 24.4% 1,258 23.2%

St. Augustine North Branford 607 14.3% 577 13.9% 2,230 54.5% 554 13.9%

St. Monica Northford (North Branford) 610 30.4% 542 31.1% 558 32.7% 513 40.2% 315 23.6%

Deanery Totals 9,161 21.6% 9,135 21.1% 9,105 20.9% 8,071 19.1% 7,346 17.7%

9,161 9,135 9,105

8,0717,346

21.6% 21.1% 20.9% 19.1% 17.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

% o

f T

ota

l R

eg

iste

red

Pari

shio

ners

# o

f M

ass

Att

en

de

es

Historical October Mass Attendance Counts

# of Mass Attendees % of Total Parishioners


PASTORAL LEADERSHIP ANALYSIS

Key Findings

The age range of priests currently serving at parishes within the

Deanery ranges from 31 to 77 with a median age of 62

If we assume that a priest is eligible for retirement when they

reach age 75, we find that there are 1 of 8 priests in the Deanery

that would be eligible to retire today if they chose to do so

Within 10 years, 1 of 8 or 12.5% priests serving parishes within

the Deanery will be eligible to retire assuming they will be

eligible for retirement once they reach age 75

Currently, the Deanery has 8 active priests serving parishes throughout

the region.

Table 7 shows the distribution of active priests by different age

categories. (Note – Priest assignment data was obtained from Deacon Ernest

Scrivani from the Archdiocese of Hartford on January 25t, 2016).


TABLE 7

EAST SHORELINE DEANERY - CURRENT PASTOR ASSIGNMENT AND AGE

Pastor Name Parish Parish City Age

Rev. George Couturier St. Mary Branford 62

Rev. Daniel Mclearen St. Margaret Madison 61

St. Elizabeth Branford

St. Clare East Haven

Rev. Timothy E. Ryan Our Lady of Pompeii East Haven 64

Rev. Thomas Sievel St. Vincent de Paul East Haven 64

Rev. Stephen Sledesky St. George Guilford 50

St. Augustine North Branford

St. Monica (Now St. Ambrose) Northford

Rev. Msgr. David Walker St. Therese Branford 77

Deanery Minimum Age 31

Deanery Maximum Age 77

Deanery Median Age 62

Rev. Richard P. Okiria 56

Rev. Robert L. Turner 31

1

0

1

5

0

1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

Age Ranges of Priests Serving Parishes


SACRAMENT ANALYSIS

Key Findings

Between 2010 and 2014 the total number of sacraments

administered across the Deanery fell by 30.4% from 2,019 to

1,405

Declines in sacraments were seen among

o baptisms 43.5%

o first communions 42.2%

o confirmations 30.8%

o weddings 32.1%

o funerals 3.1%

In 2010 the baptism to funeral ratio was .93, and in 2014 it was

.54

Table 8 shows the total number of sacraments received at parishes

across the Deanery from 2010 through 2014 (blank figures indicate where

data was not made available). The sacraments reported here include

Baptisms, First Communions, Confirmations, Weddings and Funerals.

A revealing statistic is the ratio of the total number of baptisms to the

total number of funerals. This ratio is a rough indicator of the

parishioner household demographic patterns of a particular parish,

deanery or archdiocese. Ideally a parish, deanery or archdiocese would

like to see this figure greater than one, and in most cases, much greater

than one. Deanery-wide in 2010 this ratio was .93. In 2014 this ratio was

.54, in other words, approximately 1 baptism for every 2 funerals.


TABLE 8

HISTORICAL SACRAMENT DATA & SACRAMENTAL LOAD SCORES BY PASTOR ASSIGNMENT - EAST SHORE LINE DEANERY

Parish Parish City 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142010-2014

%Change2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2010-2014

%Change2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2010-2014

%Change2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2010-2014

%Change2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2010-2014

%Change

St. Elizabeth Branford 2 6 9 4 4 100.0% 6 11 7 8 8 33.3% 13 8 7 12 12 -7.7% 1 1 1 1 1 0.0% 17 8 9 10 10 -41.2%

St. Clare East Haven 11 14 15 8 8 -27.3% 6 21 10 14 14 133.3% 13 11 8 7 7 -46.2% 1 3 3 1 0 -100.0% 15 28 25 28 28 86.7%

St. Mary Branford 60 43 38 66 45 -25.0% 53 71 53 62 17.0% 74 48 54 60 53 -28.4% 17 11 12 13 7 -58.8% 83 91 116 83 89 7.2%

St. Therese Branford 24 18 22 18 18 -25.0% 21 22 28 16 16 -23.8% 25 19 27 30 30 20.0% 4 5 6 7 7 75.0% 20 18 18 26 26 30.0%

Our Lady of Pompeii East Haven 66 60 60 50 43 -34.8% 53 56 44 45 39 -26.4% 57 41 48 52 35 -38.6% 11 9 13 14 6 -45.5% 103 100 97 106 86 -16.5%

St. Vincent de Paul East Haven 97 18 18 22 22 -77.3% 97 32 32 16 16 -83.5% 34 40 40 42 42 23.5% 12 8 8 10 10 -16.7% 72 64 64 93 93 29.2%

St. George Guilford 47 70 70 84 84 78.7% 140 145 145 125 125 -10.7% 110 126 130 129 129 17.3% 21 19 16 23 23 9.5% 74 65 70 75 75 1.4%

St. Margaret Madison 62 60 44 135 130 84 120 135 124 8 7 9 35 46 34

St. Augustine* North Branford 36 32 12 12 -66.7% 60 55 38 38 -36.7% 41 43 49 49 19.5% 4 5 3 3 -25.0% 20 32 30 30 50.0%

St. Monica* Northford 13 4 32 32 29 29 5 4 12 16

Deanery Totals 418 325 232 308 236 -43.5% 550 557 337 399 318 -42.2% 516 500 314 505 357 -30.8% 84 72 59 81 57 -32.1% 451 468 399 485 437 -3.1%


Parish Information Baptisms First Communions Confirmations Weddings Funerals

418

325

232

308

236

550 557

337

399

318

516500

314

505

357

8472

5981

57

451468

399

485

437

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Historical Sacraments

Baptisms First Communions Confirmations Weddings Funerals


PARISH FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

Key Findings

Between 2010 and 2014:

Offertory income has remained flat in current dollars and has

declined by 1.6% when adjusted for inflation

Offertory contributions accounted for 72.37% of total

operating revenue followed by gifts, donations, and bequests at

9.60% and program income at 9.44%

Salaries and benefits accounted for 43.53% of total operating

expenses followed by facility expenses at 16.56% and program

expenses at 13.23%

Of the 10 parishes in the Deanery:

o 2 parishes had average offertory income of less than

$200,000 per year

o 3 parishes operated with an operating deficit and averaged

annual cumulative operating deficits of $200,000 and still

operated with net deficits even after extraordinary activity

See Financial Charts 1 – 5

When viewed in totality offertory revenue for parishes in the Deanery has

remained virtually flat over the past 5 fiscal years for which data was

provided. Operating revenue has increased 9.57% while operating

expenses has increased 7.42%.

Parishes in total over the past 5 years have generally operated at

breakeven. When considering extraordinary income and expenses,

parishes on average have performed with a net surplus. The average net

surplus each year is about $14,000 above the average Archdiocesan

parish. However, 3 parishes, out of the 10 parishes in the Deanery, had

operating deficits totaling $200,000 and still compiled net deficits even

after considering extraordinary income and expenses.

The parish averages in East Shore Line for yearly offertory contributions

are approximately $113,000 more than the parish averages for the

Archdiocese as a whole. Total operating revenue was approximately

$128,000 more than the Archdiocesan average. In addition, the average

parish yearly operating surplus is approximately $3,000 above than the

parish average for the Archdiocese. The parishes’ main sources of

operating revenue mirror those of the Archdiocese in offertory

contributions, gifts, donations and bequests and program income. The

parishes mirror the Archdiocese in expenditures with salaries and

benefits, facility expenses, and program expenses as main expense

categories.

East Shore Line parishes, on average, have about $150,000 less in cash

and investments than the average Archdiocesan parish.


East Shore Line Deanery Parishes - Fiscal Years 2010-2014 Financial Data

Operating Income % of Total 2010-2014 Change

2010-2014 Average Annual Amount

Archdiocesan Average Annual Amount

Above/Below Archdiocesan Average

Offertory Contributions 72.37% 0.33% $420,779 $ 307,640 36.78%

Interest/Dividend 1.49% 5.16% 8,638 11,213 (22.97%)

Gifts, Donations & Bequests 9.60% 132.18% 55,830 65,346 (14.56%)

Social/Event Income 7.09% 4.75% 41,250 30,586 34.87%

Program/Other Income 9.44% 8.24% 54,904 38,725 41.78%

Total Operating Income 9.57% $581,401 $453,511

Operating Expenses

Salaries & Benefits 43.53% (1.25%) $252,090 $ 196,842 28.07%

Contracted Services Expenses 7.88% (18.10%) 45,656 28,294 61.36%

Administrative Expenses 8.15% 177.61% 47,186 28,470 65.74%

Facility Expenses 16.56% (2.15%) 95,894 98,322 (2.47%)

Program Expenses 13.23% 20.16% 76,597 56,136 36.45%

Diocesan Expenses 5.59% (2.64%) 32,368 28,647 12.99%

Direct Parish School Subsidy Expenses 5.06% (53.51%) 29,324 17,889 63.93%

Total Operating Expenses 7.42% $579,115 $ 454,600 27.39%

Operating Net Surplus/(Deficit) $ 2,286 $ (1,089)

Extraordinary Net % of Total

2010-2014 Change

2010-2014 Average Annual Amount

Archdiocesan Average Annual Amount

Above/Below Archdiocesan Average

Archdiocesan Funding 0.00% N/A - $ 12,441

Net Rental Income 0.25% 229.66% 1,572 17,814

Net Non-Operating & Net Capital 7.36% N/A 45,596 6,053

Extraordinary Net Surplus/(Deficit) $ 47,168 $ 36,308

Net Surplus/(Deficit) $ 49,454 $ 35,219

Cash & Investments $575,112 $729,145 (21.13%)

Liabilities $ 51,171 $ 46,789 9.37%

FINANCIAL CHART 1


East Shore Line Deanery - Collective Analysis of Average Operating Income, Offertory, Operating Expenses & Salaries/Benefits - 5 Year Trend

Collective Analysis of Average Operating Income, Offertory, Operating Expenses & Salaries/Benefits - 5 Year Trend

Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Total Offertory $420,376 $419,458 $425,823 $416,457 $421,779

Total Operating Income $556,911 $567,330 $582,062 $590,480 $610,221

Salaries & Benefits $245,745 $248,050 $259,336 $264,632 $242,684

Total Operating Expenses $563,508 $566,138 $570,414 $590,178 $605,337

East Shore Line Deanery



$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Total Offertory Total Operating Income Salaries & Benefits Total Operating Expenses

FINANCIAL CHART 2


Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Program/Other Income 51,518 53,958 48,360 64,922 55,764

Social & Event Income 41,712 40,243 40,065 40,536 43,695

Interest & Dividends 9,104 8,281 7,217 9,014 9,574

Gifts, Donations and Bequests 34,201 45,390 60,597 59,552 79,409

Total Operating Income $556,911 $567,330 $582,062 $590,480 $610,221

Salaries & Benefits $245,745 $248,050 $259,336 $264,632 $242,684

Contracted Services 48,546 53,965 42,953 43,059 39,759

Facility Expenses 95,776 91,614 94,142 104,217 93,720

Administrative Expenses 34,657 32,527 33,197 39,341 96,210

Diocesan Expenses 32,819 32,722 32,115 32,231 31,951

Program Services Expenses 70,247 71,826 77,180 79,322 84,410

Parish Subsidy to School 35,718 35,435 31,491 27,376 16,603

Total Operating Expenses $563,508 $566,138 $570,414 $590,178 $605,337

Operating Surplus/(Deficit) ($6,598) $1,192 $11,648 $303 $4,885

Extraordinary

Net Rental Income $684 $688 $1,952 $2,279 $2,255

Archdiocesan Subsidies/Funding - - - - -

Capital Fund Drive Income 45 495 175,431 36,790 18,935

Non Op Income - - - - -

Extraordinary Income $729 $1,183 $177,383 $39,069 $21,190

Capital Fund Drive Expenses $2,517 $0 $1,199 $0 $0

Non Op Expenses - - - - -

Extraordinary Expenses $2,517 $0 $1,199 $0 $0

Extraordinary Net ($1,788) $1,183 $176,185 $39,069 $21,190

Net Surplus/(Deficit) ($8,385) $2,375 $187,833 $39,372 $26,075


$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

R 2010 E R 2011 E R 2012 E R 2013 E R 2014 E

Collective Analysis of Average Operating Income & Expense Categories + Extraordinary Income & Expense - 5 Year Trend

Total Offertory Program/Other Income Social & Event Income Interest & Dividends Gifts, Donations and Bequests

Salaries & Benefits Contracted Services Administrative Expenses Diocesan Expenses Facility Expenses

Program Services Expenses Parish Subsidy to School Net Rental Income Archdiocesan Subsidies/Funding Non Op Income

Non Op Expenses Capital Fund Drive Income Capital Fund Drive Expenses

FINANCIAL CHART 3



Comparison of Average Distribution of Total Revenue & Expenses - 2010 vs 2014

2010 Total Revenue Distribution 2014 Total Revenue Distribution

2010 Total Expense Distribution 2014 Total Expense Distribution

Gifts, Donations and Bequests

6.13%

Interest & Dividends

1.63%

Total Offertory75.38%

Social & Event Income7.48%

Program/Other Income9.24%

Net Rental

Income0.12%

Gifts, Donations and Bequests12.58%

Interest & Dividends1.52%

Total Offertory66.80%

Social & Event Income6.92%

Program/Other Income8.83%

Net Rental

Income0.36%

Capital Fund Drive Income3.00%

Salaries & Benefits43.42%

Contracted Services8.58%

Facility Expenses16.92%

Administrative Expenses

6.12%

Program Services Expenses

12.41%

Parish Subsidy to School6.31%

Diocesan Expenses5.80%

Capital Fund Drive

Expenses

0.44%


Contracted Services7.90%

Facility Expenses15.26%

Administrative Expenses

15.67%

Program Services Expenses

13.74%

Parish Subsidy to School

2.70%

Diocesan Expenses5.20%

FINANCIAL CHART 4


Financial Chart 5 shows a projected progression of financial health of the parishes in the Deanery, assuming all conditions remain the same.

The projections are based on the 5 year historical average of each parish and projected forward with a minor inflationary factor over 9 years.

The projections are based on operations and net results after considering extraordinary activity and their effect on parish reserves over the projected

timeframe. An index was then assigned to the trends in order to quantify periods of red, amber, or green.

FINANCIAL CHART 5

Projected Financial Sustainability Index Low Medium High

Parish 2017-2019 2020-2022 2023-2025

St. Augustine, North Branford*

St. Clare, East Haven

St. Elizabeth, Branford

St. George, Guilford

St. Margaret, Madison

St. Mary, Branford

St. Monica, Northford (North Branford)*

St. Therese, Branford

St. Vincent de Paul, East Haven

*St. Augustine and St. Monica Merged to form St. Ambrose


Catholic Schools Research and Analysis


U.S. CENSUS DEMOGRAPHICS – SCHOOL AGE CHILDREN

Key Findings

Currently, 0-14 year olds comprise 15.4% of the total

population in the Deanery, and it is estimated that 0-14 year

olds will comprise 14.4% of the total population in the Deanery

by 2020

Since 2010, the total number of 0 -14 year olds has declined

10.1%, and it is estimated that 0-14 year olds will decline

another 6.6% by 2020

Since 2010, the total number of 0-4 year olds has declined 8.7%,

and it is estimated that 0 – 4 years olds will decline another

2.2% by 2020

Since 2010, the total number of 5-9 year olds has declined

10.7% and it is estimated that 5 - 9 year olds will decline another

7.3% by 2020

Since 2010, the total number of 10-14 year olds has declined

8.2% and it is estimated that 10-14 year olds will decline another

8.7% by 2020

See Appendix Maps 41 - 49

Table 9 summarizes the total population of school-age children residing

within the Deanery into 3 separate age groups of 0–4 year olds, 5-9 year

olds, and 10-14 year olds. Those ages 0 – 4 represent future students, as

well as potential prekindergarten students. Those age 5 – 14 generally

correlate with kindergarten through 8th graders.

In 2015, the total population for 0-4, 5-9, and 10-14 year olds was 4,481,

5,687, and 7,086; respectively (Appendix Maps 41 - 43). Currently, 0-14

year olds comprise 15.4% of the total population in the Deanery, where

0-4, 5-9, and 10-14 year olds comprise 4.0%, 5.1% and 6.3%,

respectively.

Since 2010, the total number of 0 -14 year olds has declined 9.1%, where

all school-age groups have experienced declines (0-4, 5-9, and 10-14 year

olds declined 8.7%, 10.7% and 8.2%, respectively). Five year projections

show that these trends are expected to continue. By 2020, it is estimated

that 0-14 year olds will decline another 6.6%. These declines are

projected across all age ranges including: 0-4 year olds (2.2%), 5-9 year

olds (7.3%), and 10 – 14 year (8.7%- Appendix Maps 44 - 46).

In addition, by 2020 it is estimated that 0-14 year olds will comprise

14.4% of the total population in the Deanery, down from 15.4% in 2015

(Appendix Maps 47 - 49). Declines in the overall share of the

population are projected for 0-4 year olds (3.9% from 4.0% in 2015), 5-9

year olds (4.7% from 5.1% in 2015), as well as 10-14 year olds (5.8%

from 6.3% in 2015).

TABLE 9: SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN DEMOGRPAHICS BY DEANERY BOUNDARY

2015-2020

Age

RangeNumber Percent Number Percent Number Percent % Change

0 - 4 4,909 4.4% 4,481 4.0% 4,383 3.9% -2.2%

5 - 9 6,365 5.7% 5,687 5.1% 5,271 4.7% -7.3%

10 - 14 7,715 6.9% 7,086 6.3% 6,466 5.8% -8.7%

Totals 18,989 16.9% 17,254 15.4% 16,120 14.4% -6.6%

Total Pop. 112,252 112,062 112,313 0.2%

2010 2015 2020


POTENTIAL STUDENT YIELD INDEX MAPPING

It is the intention of the Archdiocese of Hartford to increase Catholic

student enrollment and religious education participation in the future. In

order to do this it is useful to analyze, identify and target future

geographic areas that will most likely produce high student yields.

A potential student yield index analysis based on projected demographic

patterns was performed for the Deanery. By appending demographic

census data and catholicity data at the block group level in the Deanery,

individual indices were created at the block group level for each of the

following variables: projected median household income, percent

catholicity, projected age under 5 population, and projected age 5-14

population. The index values ranged from 1-5 and each variable was

assigned to the appropriate range; 1 indicating the least likely range to

yield students, and 5 indicating the most likely. These variables were then

overlaid and geospatially added together using a geographical information

system (GIS) to create a spatial layer with index values ranging from 4 -

20 (see inset to the right). This new layer was then re-classified into 5

new ranges. Low index values were assigned to a low and moderately low

potential classification, middle index values were grouped into a

moderate potential classification, and high index values were grouped

into a moderately high and high potential classification. This layer was

then mapped (Map 6) to reflect the spatial representation or ‘Sweet-Spot

Analysis’ of the 5 new classes. Map 7 is similar to that of Map 6;

however, Map 7 was based on patterns of projected populations of

0-4 and 5-14 year olds only. The sweet-spot analysis reveals that future

Catholic, student populations will most likely come from those areas in

light red and red.

Those areas in beige will most likely produce moderate student yields,

while those areas in light blue and blue will most likely result in lower

student yields.


Map 6: Sweet Spot Analysis #1


Map 7: Sweet Spot Analysis #2


CATHOLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT & PROJECTIONS AND

RELIGIOUS EDUCATION PARTICIPATION ANALYSIS

Key Findings

Over the last 15 years:

K-8 enrollment has declined 50.22% from 667 in 2000 to 332 in

2015 and accounted for 4.04% of total K-8 enrollment in the

Archdiocese

In the last 5 years:

Average PK - K capture rate for the last 5 years = 119.67%

Average K-8 cohort survival ratio for the last 5 years = 99.0%

In the current 2015/2016 school year:

K-8 enrollment is 343

Total PK-8 Catholic school building capacity was 45%

By school year 2020/2021:

Total PK-8 Catholic school enrollment is projected to decline

12.1% from 306 to 269

Total K-8 Catholic school enrollment is projected to decline

12.3% from 268 to 235 (of the schools remaining open after

school year 2015-2016)

See Enrollment Charts 1 and 2


The total number of resident births in selected cities across the

Deanery fell by 22.4% from 732 to 568

Births declined in the City of Branford (13.5%), the City of East

Haven (11.8%) and the City of Madison (52.8%)


Religious education enrollment fell 46.2% from 4,960 to 2,668

In the current 2015/2016 school year:

Approximately 16.6% of all 6 – 18 year olds across the Deanery

are enrolled in Catholic schools or participate in religious

education programs

This analysis reports historical and projected student enrollments and

capacity utilization figures for Catholic schools located in the East Shore

Line Deanery. Historical enrollment and building capacity data was

obtained from the Archdiocese of Hartford Catholic Schools Office.

Five-year enrollment projections for Prekindergarten and Kindergarten

were derived by utilizing resident birth data obtained from the State of

Connecticut Department of Public Health. Projected enrollments for

grades 1 through 8 were then calculated by employing a cohort survival

methodology. With this method, survival ratios were calculated based on

historical student enrollments by dividing the total number of students

per grade in a given year by the total number of students in the preceding

grade in the previous year. An average of long-term and short-term

survival ratios was then utilized to project future 1st through 12th

graders.


A bright spot in the data concerns both the Pre-K to K Capture Rate and

the Cohort Survival Rate. Over the past 5 years the conversion of

students enrolled in the Pre-K programs to spots in the Kindergarten

classrooms of the schools has been excellent at over 100%. Likewise, the

Cohort Survival Rate during that same time period has been an

outstanding 99%. What this indicates is that once students enter a school

in the Deanery it is extremely likely that they will stay in that school.

Since the schools appear to be doing an excellent job of keeping their

enrolled students, the dramatic enrollment decrease over the past 15

years may be related to demographic and birth patterns over that time.

In the school year 2015-2016, there were 306 total students in

grades PK- 8 enrolled at Catholic schools located within the Deanery

(Map 8 & Table 10). Since school year 2006-2007, overall PK-8

enrollment has declined by 23.3% from 399 to 306 and K-8 declined

27.4% from 369 to 268 (of the schools to remain open after fiscal year

2015-2016). By employing the student projection methodology described

previously, it is estimated that, if nothing changes, the total PK-8

enrollment across East Shore Line Deanery schools will decline 12.1%

from 306 to 269 by school year 2020-2021 and K- 8 enrollment is

expected to decline 12.3% from 268 to 235.

Declining enrollment at the different grade levels, especially grades PK-8,

have likely been impacted by the declining number of resident births in

the region. The total number of births in a particular region is a strong

indicator of future prekindergarten and kindergarten enrollment.

Table 11 reports resident births from 2003 through 2012 for selected

cities in the Deanery. Between 2003 and 2012 the total number of

resident births in these cities fell 22.4% from 732 to 568. This included

the City of Branford (13.5%), the City of East Haven (11.8%%) and the

City of Madison (52.8%). This fluctuation in births had a significant

impact on Catholic student enrollments, and will most likely continue to

do so in the near future.

Further, between 2010 and 2014 religious education enrollment has

declined 46.2% across the Deanery from 4,960 to 2,668 (Table 12 - blank

figures indicate where data was not made available). Thus, if we factor in the

total number of Catholic students we find that the total number of

students either enrolled in Catholic school or participating in religious

education programs across the Deanery in 2014 was 2,927. If we relate

this to school-age census data (6 – 18 year olds), we find that the

Deanery current market share capture of 6 – 18 year olds in 2014 was

approximately 16.6%.


Deanery Enrollment Trend - Grades K - 8

Archdiocese of Hartford

2015

2010

2005

2000


2015 2010 2005 2000

2,095

1,508 1,357

1,280 1,278 1,247 1,227

873 855

667 667 663 620 614 602 581 530

1,530

1,268 1,175 1,029 1,082 979 1,057

647730 598 637 700

335 431 417 482 440

1,125 1,036 979 951652 773

563 494 536 394 556 645

239 420 333 339 420748 769 781 726 412 642

482 428 419 332 479 114 497 397 301 273 410

ENROLLMENT CHART 1



Fiscal Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Our Lady of Mercy Catholic School 184 178 192 206 196 179 169

St. Mary Catholic School 67 72 71 82 83 80 99

St. Vincent de Paul Catholic School* 143 117 114 98 86 73 75

Total K - 8 Enrollment 394 367 377 386 365 332 343

K - 8 Archdiocesan Average 183 181 182 178 167 158 161

Our Lady of Mercy Catholic School 10 13 6 22 17 19 10

St. Mary Catholic School 8 15 24 18 11 26 28

St. Vincent de Paul Catholic School* 11 6 10 5 8 7 13

Total PK Enrollment 29 34 40 45 36 52 51

* St. Vincent de Paul Identified to be Closed


-

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Our Lady of Mercy Catholic School St. Mary Catholic School St. Vincent de Paul Catholic School* K - 8 Archdiocesan Average

ENROLLMENT CHART 2


Map 8: Catholic Student Distribution


TABLE 10

Grade 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021

PK 30 40 26 18 28 30 40 28 45 38 37 36 35 35 34

K 39 51 38 23 36 37 24 35 22 36 29 29 27 27 27

1 42 35 34 29 15 31 32 21 32 22 32 26 26 25 24

2 42 40 39 30 27 18 36 29 24 31 23 33 28 26 26

3 43 41 33 23 33 30 20 38 29 24 29 22 33 27 26

4 43 45 35 29 26 37 34 22 35 28 24 30 22 32 27

5 34 45 45 30 32 30 42 32 23 34 29 24 30 23 33

6 35 33 40 35 31 34 36 41 31 22 36 28 23 31 23

7 49 34 27 32 21 25 37 27 36 30 20 32 26 21 28

8 42 46 31 20 29 21 27 34 27 41 30 20 31 25 21

Total K - 8 369 370 322 251 250 263 288 279 259 268 252 244 246 237 235

Total PK - 8 399 410 348 269 278 293 328 307 304 306 289 280 281 272 269

`

Historical Enrollment Projected Enrollment

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

School Year

East Shore Line Deanery Catholic Schools Historial & Projected Student Enrollment

PK - 8 Enrollment

K-8 Enrollment

Table 10 Enrollment numbers only includes Our Lady of Mercy & St. Mary


TABLE 11

Birth Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

City of Branford 275 237 235 240 271 235 212 227 206 238

City of East Haven 279 312 306 318 325 306 271 280 283 246

City of Madison 178 153 130 128 97 104 85 86 111 84

Totals 732 702 671 686 693 645 568 593 600 568

EAST SHORELINE - HISTORICAL RESIDENT BIRTHS FOR SELECTED CITIES

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Year

Historical Resident Births

Branford

East Haven

Madison

Totals


TABLE 12

EAST SHORE LINE DEANERY- HISTORICAL RELIGIOUS EDUCATION ENROLLMENT

Parish Name Parish City 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142010-2014 %

Change

St. Elizabeth Branford 103 92 92 92 92 -10.7%

St. Mary Branford 354 354 394 394 11.3%

St. Therese Branford 193 201 163 152 152 -21.2%

Our Lady of Pompeii East Haven 700 640

St. Clare East Haven 126 119 98 98 98 -22.2%

St. Vincent de Paul East Haven 341 245 245 400 400 17.3%

St. George Guilford 1,101 1,308 1,208 1,172 1,172 6.4%

St. Margaret Madison 1,234 1,335 1,335

St. Augustine* North Branford 533 549 360 360 -32.5%

St. Monica* Northford (North Branford) 275 275

Deanery Totals 4,960 4,764 2,160 4,003 2,668 -46.2%


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Year

East Shore Line Deanery Historical Religious Education Enrollment

Religious Ed.

Enrollment


CATHOLIC SCHOOL FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

Key Findings

Between 2011 - 2014

Tuition income has increased approximately 41.68%

On average, tuition income accounted for approximately 59.83%

of total operating revenue followed by advancement income at

12.10% and parish support income at 11.12%

On average, salaries and benefits accounted for approximately

69.29% of total operating expenses, followed by facility expenses

at 11.54% and administrative expenses at 6.49%

On average, revenue generated from Special Program activities

average approximately $26,000 per year

Of the 3 schools in the Deanery

o 2 schools had average annual operating deficits with a

cumulative total operating deficit of $91,000

o 1 school still operated with a deficit even after including

special program net surplus

See Financial Charts 6 – 10

Data provided for 2011 to 2014 showed that tuition increased

approximately 41.68%. Average annual collected tuition per student was

$4,481. This is about $1,000 per student more than the average school in

the Archdiocese. Total income, on average per student, is $7,489, which

is $1,900 more per student than in the Archdiocese as a whole.

Operating revenue increased approximately 22.27% while operating

expenses increased approximately 21.07%. Average annual cost to

educate per student was $7,621, which is about $1,900 more than the

average school in the Archdiocese.

On average schools operated with a deficit from operations and created

a surplus when including special program net surplus. However, 2

schools had operating deficits with a cumulative total operating deficit

of $91,000. One school still operated with a deficit even after including

special program net surplus. Net financial results for schools in East

Shore Line are on average about $18,000 below the Archdiocesan

average.


Archdiocese of Hartford Schools

Fiscal Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2000-2015 Change

Archdiocese of Hartford No of Schools 70 66 57 52 (18)

Archdiocese of Hartford K–8 Enrollment 16,664 13,537 10,455 8,210 (50.73%)

2011-2015 Average PK to Kindergarten Capture Rate 2011-2015 Average Cohort Survival Ratio 81.43% 95.59%

East Shore Line Deanery Schools

Fiscal Year 2000 2005 2010 2015 2000-2015 Change

No of Schools 3 3 3 3 -

K-8 Enrollment 667 598 394 332 (50.22%)

2015 Enrollment as % of Total 2015 Archdiocesan Enrollment 4.04%

2011-2015 Average PK to Kindergarten Capture Rate - 119.7% 2011-2015 Average Cohort Survival Ratio - 99.00%

East Shore Line Deanery Schools - Fiscal Years 2011-2014 Financial Data

Operating Income

% of Total 2011-2014 Change

2011-2014 Average Annual

Amount

Archdiocesan Average Annual

Amount

Average Annual K–8 Enrollment

125 Average per Student

Archdiocesan Enrollment

181 Average per Student

Above/Below Archdiocesan

Average

Tuition Income 59.83% 41.68% $ 560,077 $ 636,490 $ 4,481 $3,517 27.42%

Grants/Foundation Income 6.82% 10.68% 63,852 92,302 511 510 0.17%

Parish Support Income 11.12% (60.74%) 104,056 81,138 832 448 85.70%

Advancement Income 12.10% 3.75% 113,250 116,198 906 642 41.13%

Program/Other Income 10.14% 18.07% 94,904 94,184 759 520 45.91%

Total Operating Income 22.27% $ 936,138 $1,020,312 $ 7,489 $ 5,637 32.85%

Operating Expenses

Salaries & Benefits 69.29% 15.74% $ 660,088 $ 783,501 $ 5,281 $ 4,329 21.99%

Instructional Expenses 6.42% 46.92% 61,192 44,885 490 248 97.41%

Administrative Expenses 6.49% 57.45% 61,846 49,449 495 273 81.10%

Facility Expenses 11.54% 4.02% 109,969 95,993 880 530 65.88%

Student Services Expenses 3.90% 61.65% 37,138 46,528 297 257 15.58%

Advancement Expenses 2.35% 87.16% 22,411 22,217 179 123 46.06%

Total Operating Expenses 21.07% $ 952,645 $1,042,572 $ 7,621 $ 5,760 32.31%

Operating Net Surplus/(Deficit) $( 16,507) $(22,260) Special Program

Special Program Income 6.97% (62.88%) $ 70,147 $162,035 (56.71%)

Special Program Expenses 4.44% (62.90%) $ 44,398 $112,136 (60.41%)

Special Program Net Surplus/(Deficit) $ 25,749 $49,899 Net Surplus/(Deficit) $ 9,242 $27,639

FINANCIAL CHART 6

5


East Shore Line Deanery Schools - Collective Analysis of Average School Operating Income, Tuition, Operating Expenses & Salaries/Benefits & Enrollment - 4 Year Trend

Collective Analysis of Average School Operating Income, Tuition, Operating Expenses & Salaries/Benefits & Enrollment - 4 Year Trend

Fiscal Year 2011 2012 2013 2014

Net Tuition Income $450,269 $557,573 $594,512 $637,953

Total K-8 Income $850,564 $906,992 $946,990 $1,040,005

Salaries & Benefits $623,582 $632,959 $662,051 $721,759

Total K-8 Expenses* $875,113 $906,853 $969,107 $1,059,506

K-8 Enrollment 122 126 129 122

*Excludes Depreciation Expense



Collective Analysis of Average School Operating Income, Tuition, Operating Expenses & Salaries/Benefits & Enrollment - 4 Year

122 126

129

122

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

2011 2012 2013 2014

Collective Analysis of Average School Operating Income, Tuition, Operating Expenses & Salaries/Benefits & Enrollment - 4 Year Trend

Net Tuition Income Total K-8 Income Salaries & Benefits Total K-8 Expenses* K-8 Enrollment

K-8 Enrollment

FINANCIAL CHART 7


Fiscal Year 2011 2012 2013 2014

Net Tuition Income $450,269 $557,573 $594,512 $637,953

Fees Income 27,364 11,336 19,341 48,046

Assessments Income 2,208 3,167 2,333 2,200

Parish Support Income 144,624 116,813 98,012 56,775

Grants/Foundations Income 56,190 51,833 71,205 76,178

Advancement Income 111,937 108,091 107,967 125,004

Rental Income - - - -

Other Income 57,971 58,179 53,620 93,849

Total K-8 Income $850,564 $906,992 $946,990 $1,040,005

Salaries & Benefits $623,582 $632,959 $662,051 $721,759

Administrative/Other Expenses 50,654 47,731 69,244 79,756

Instructional Expenses 43,887 70,342 66,060 64,480

Facility Expenses 111,013 102,667 110,716 115,480

Student Services Expenses 31,425 35,122 31,210 50,797

Advancement Expenses 14,552 18,033 29,825 27,235

Total K-8 Expenses* $875,113 $906,853 $969,107 $1,059,506

K - 8 Surplus/(Deficit) ($24,549) $138 ($22,116) ($19,501)

Special Program Income $116,563 $59,323 $61,437 $43,264

Special Program Expenses (83,977) (29,520) (32,945) (31,152)

Special Program Net Surplus/(Deficit) $32,586 $29,804 $28,492 $12,112

Total School Surplus/(Deficit) $8,037 $29,942 $6,376 ($7,389)

*Excludes Depreciation Expense


$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

$1,100,000

R 2011 E R 2012 E R 2013 E R 2014 E

Collective Analysis of Average K-8 School Income & Expense Categories + Special Program Income & Expense - 4 Year Trend

Net Tuition Income Fees Income Assessments Income Other Income

Rental Income Advancement Income Parish Support Income Grants/Foundations Income

Special Program Income Salaries & Benefits Administrative/Other Expenses Instructional Expenses

Facility Expenses Student Services Expenses Advancement Expenses Special Program Expenses

FINANCIAL CHART 8



Comparison of Average Distribution of Total School Revenue & Expenses - 2011 vs 2014

2011 Total Revenue Distribution 2014 Total Revenue Distribution

2011 Total Expense Distribution 2014 Total Expense Distribution

Net Tuition Income46.56%

Fees Income2.83%

Assessments Income0.23%

Parish Support Income14.95%

Grants/Foundations Income5.81%

Advancement Income11.57%

Other Income5.99%

Special Program Income12.05%

Net Tuition Income58.89%

Fees Income4.44%

Assessments Income0.20%

Parish Support Income5.24%

Grants/Foundations Income7.03%

Advancement Income11.54%

Other Income8.66%

Special Program Income3.99%


Administrative/Other Expenses

5.28%Facility Expenses

11.57%

Instructional Expenses4.58%

Student Services Expenses

3.28%

Advancement Expenses

1.52%

Special Program Expenses

8.76%


Administrative/Other Expenses

7.31% Facility Expenses10.59%

Instructional Expenses5.91%

Student Services

Expenses4.66%

Advancement Expenses

2.50%

Special Program Expenses

2.86%

FINANCIAL CHART 9


Financial Chart 10 shows a projected progression of financial health of the schools in the Deanery, assuming all conditions remain the same.

The projections are based on the 5 year historical average of each school and projected forward with a minor inflationary factor over 9 years.

The projections are based on operations and net results after considering extraordinary activity and their effect on school reserves over the projected

timeframe. An index was then assigned to the trends in order to quantify periods of red, amber, or green.

FINANCIAL CHART 10

Projected Financial Sustainability Index Low Medium High

School 2017-2019 2020-2022 2023-2025

St. Mary Catholic School

St. Vincent de Paul Catholic School*

Our Lady of Mercy Catholic School

* St. Vincent de Paul Catholic School - Identified/In process to close


APPENDIX MAPS


Appendix Map 1: 2015 Total Population by Census Block Group


Appendix Map 2: 2015-2020 Total Population Percent Change by Census Block

Group


Appendix Map 3: 2015 Total Non-Hispanic White Population by Census Block Group


Appendix Map 4: 2015 Total Non-Hispanic White Population as a % of the Total Population by Census Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 5: 2015-2020 Total Non-Hispanic White Population Percent Change by Census Block Group


Appendix Map 6: 2020 Total Projected Non-Hispanic White Population as a % of the Total Population by Census Block Group Group Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 7: 2015 Total Population of Persons of Color by Census Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 8: 2015 Persons of Color as a % of the Total Population by Census Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 9: 2015-2020 Total Population of Persons of Color Percent Change by Census Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 10: 2020 Total Projected Persons of Color Population as a % of the Total Population by Census Block Group Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 11: 2015 Total Hispanic Population by Census Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 12: 2015 Total Hispanic Population as a % of the Total Population by Census Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 13: 2015-2020 Total Hispanic Population Percent Change by Census Block Group Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 14: 2020 Total Projected Hispanic Population as a % of the Total Population by Census Block Group Group Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 15: 2015 Total Black Population by Census Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 16: 2015 Total Black Population as a % of the Total Population by Census Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 17: 2015-2020 Total Black Population Percent Change by Census Block Group Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 18: 2020 Total Projected Black Population as a % of the Total Population by Census Block Group Group Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 19: 2015 Total Other Races Population by Census Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 20: 2015 Total Other Races Population as a % of the Total Population by Census Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 21: 2015-2020 Total Other Races Population Percent Change by Census Block Group Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 22: 2020 Total Projected Other Races Population as a % of the Total Population by Census Block Group Group Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 23: 2015 Total Asian Population by Census Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 24: 2015 Total Asian Population as a % of the Total Population by Census Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 25: 2015-2020 Total Asian Population Percent Change by Census Block Group Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 26: 2020 Total Asian Population as a % of the Total Population by Census Block Group Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 27: 2015 Total American Indian Population by Census Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 28: 2015 Total American Indian Population as a % of the Total Population by Census Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 29: 2015-2020 Total American Indian Population Percent Change by Census Block Group Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 30: 2020 Total American Indian Population as a % of the Total Population by Census Block Group Group Block Group Block Group


Map 24: 2015-2020 Total Hispanic Population Percent Change by Census Block Group Block Group Block Group

Appendix Map 31: 2015 Total Population Ages 0-19 by Census Block Group Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 34: 2015 Total Population Ages 65 & Older by Census Block Group Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 35: 2015-2020 Total Population Percent Change (Ages 0-19) by Census Block Group Block Group Block Group


Appendix Map 36: 2015-2020 Total Population Percent Change (Ages 20-44) by Census Block Group Group Block Group


Appendix Map 37: 2015-2020 Total Population Percent Change (Ages 45-64) by Census Block Group Group Group Block Group


Appendix Map 38: 2015-2020 Total Population Percent Change (Ages 65 & Older) by Census Block Group Group Group Group


Appendix Map 39: 2015 Median Household Income by Census Block Group


Appendix Map 40: 2015-2020 Median Household Income Percent Change by Census Block Group


Appendix Map 47: 2020 Total Population Ages 0-4 as a % of the Total Population by Census Block Group Block Group Block Group


End of Report

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