Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia

GoranPejanovic

WMO RA VI-Europe RCC Network SEEVCCC :

● Climate Data Node

● Climate Monitoring Node

● Long Range Forecast Node

Lead: KNMI/Netherlands (consortium member SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia)

Lead: DWD/Germany (participate SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia)

• collecting data from the stations (monthly, 400-500 stations; main source for data KNMI-ECA&D, other climate bulletins NCDC)

• mean temperature and accumulated precipitation,• temperature anomaly and precipitation percent of normal,• all available monthly/three-monthly

Lead: Météo-France & ROSHYDROMET (participate SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia)

Once a month ensemble run of a regional long range forecast - 7 months ahead: dynamical downscaling ECMWF 41 ensemble with RCM-SEEVCCC

South East European gridded model datasets for 1961-1990 (ready)

Long Range Forecast Node

●RCM-SEEVCCC LRF (Long Range Forecast–Seasonal Forecast)

• model start: 16th of each month• forecast duration: 7 months (~215 days)• model resolution: ~35km atmosphere ; ~20km ocean• model domain: Euro - Mediterranean region extended toward Caspian Sea• 41 ensemble members • initial and boundary conditions: ECMWF, resolution:125km• results prepared for South East European region

• Next step: adding into LRF: • Dust component• Mineral fractions (Fe, P)

• regional dynamical downscaling using fully coupled atmosphere-ocean Regional Climate Model

Operational dust forecast: DREAM● DREAM8: Dust Regional Atmospheric Model with 8 categories for particle sizes

DREAM8 – assim DREAM8

• model runs: 12UTC start ; +72h forecast• model resolution: 1/3 degrees (~35km)

• models: DREAM8 and DREAM8-assim (assimilation using ECMWF dust aerosol analysis based on MODIS)

• daily dissemination of DREAM8-assim products to the Spanish Centre for model intercomparison

Assimilation of satellite information on mineral dust

ECMWF dust aerosol analysis assimilated in initial field.

Mineral composition of arid soils

- data on mineral fraction for 9 most common minerals in arid regions

- important impacts on: human health, ocean bio-productivity, cloud formation

GMINER30: High-resolution global dataset on surface mineralogy in arid areas

- minerals are sorted by size in clay and silt populations

silt clay silt & clayfeldspar illite calcite

gypsium kaolinite hematite

smectite quartz

+ phosphorus

- dataset is global on 30 arc-seconds resolution (~ 1 km)

- available to SDS-WAS community at: http://www.seevccc.rs/GMINER30/

Atmospheric iron transport modeling- Development of DREAM-Iron model

Example of mineral database application

In accordance with the GESAMP WG38Recommendation (March 2011) – a joint SDS-WAS and GESAMP activity

leading edge110mi

DUST SIMULATION – 6-km model10m WIND MAGNITUDE

W.A.Sprigg, S. Nickovic, G. Pejanovic, A. Vukovic

NASA Applied Science support ledto this high-resolution forecast &simulation capability

Simulation of the Phoenix haboobWith 3.7 km resolution NMME-Dream8

Phoenix

Phoenix

Models: DREAM (syntetic initial soil temperature and wetness)DREAMW (initialized soil temperature and wetness)Resolution: 1/6 degrees Forecast: 2 per daystart at 00UTC for 72 hoursstart at 12UTC for 72 hoursInitial field: +06h ECMWF global forecast

dc: surface dust concentration and wind on lmdl: dust load and 700mb geopotentialda: aerosol optical depth 500nmdd: cumulative dry dust deposition dw: cumulative wet dust depositiondp: 3h accumulated precipitation and MSL pressured9: relative humidity and wind at 925mbd7: relative humidity and wind at 700mbd5: relative humidity and wind at 500mb

Other international activities:

Fennec Project: Dust Forecast

SEEVCCC Earth Climate Modeling System: NMMB

Results obtained with NMMB in SEEVCCC:global forecast

ECMWF

● SEEVCCC perform 10 days (global) forecast

Future plans:

● testing model on regional and local scales

● coupling with ocean, aerosols, hydrology

● perform seasonal forecast

● climate projections● ……

NMMB