revision of calorific value and carbon emission factor for

IPCC NGGIP EFDB 13 DEC 2017

Revision of Calorific Value and

Carbon Emission Factor for

Japanese Inventory - 2014

Dec. 13, 2017

Kazunari Kainou

Fellow, RIETI / IAI, Gov. of Japan

Lecturer, GrasPP / University of Tokyo

Member, UNFCCC CDM Executive Board

Revision of Calorific Value and Carbon

Emission Factor for Japanese Inventory

2014

- Contents -

1- Backgrounds and Motivations

2- Methods for Data gathering, Quantification

3- Major Results

4- Lessons Learned

2

The analysis and views addressed in this document areThe author’s own one, DOES NOT represents any organi-

-zation’s views nor opinions that the author belongs now.


3

1. Backgrounds and Motivations

1.1 Outdated and Inconsistent CEF

- GCV

･ Revised by METI, with 5 years interval.

- CEF

･ MOE responsible, but most of them

are measured in 1992, >20 years ago.

･ Though cross checked in 2006 with

IPCC 2006 G/L, mostly outdated.

← Japanese GCV and CEF was NOT

consistently quantified.


4


1.2 Issues for the GCV/CEF revision (1)

- Need for revision

･ Accuracy of General Energy Statistics

gradually degraded by possible bias

- Obstacles for revision

･ Frequent revision shall cause confusion

for the users, need 5 to 10 yr interval

･ Sample measurement are fairly

costly (>$500/sample !) and need

great efforts for quantification


5


1.3 Issues for the GCV/CEF revision (2)

- Energy & Carbon I/O in GES Japan

[Coke Production] [Oil Refinery]


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0.930

0.940

0.950

0.960

0.970

0.980

0.990

1.000

1.010

1.020

Output/Input ratio

Energy Balance

Carbon Balance

En ergy and Cabon balan ce of Coke Prod uct ion(GES-2005 edition, 1990-2012FY)

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2FY

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0.975

0.980

0.985

0.990

0.995

1.000

1.005

1.010

Output/Imput ratio

Energy Balance

Carbon Balance

En ergy and Carb on balanc e of Oil Refin ery(GES-2005 edition, 1990-2012FY)

6


1.4 Agreement of GoJ (2011)

- Ministerial Cooperation

･ MOE & METI agreed joint revision of

GCV and CEF consistently and agreed

resource allocation for measurement

- Official request to Japanese Industry

sector for data cooperation

･ To minimize the budget expend-

iture, MOE & METI requested data

submission for industry sector


7

2. Methods for Data gather, Quantification

2.1 Measures for Valid Data gathering

- Consistent measurement

･ Quantified chemical composition, GCV,

NCV and CEF from same sample set

- Clear condition specification

･ At the startup stage, we clearly specified

measurement condition of the revision

･“SATP” Standard Ambient Temp.&

Pres., 298.15K(25℃), 105Pa

･“ar” As Received for solid fuels


8


2.2 Quantification approaches (1)

- Gaseous fuels

･ Gathered Gas-Chromatograph data

･ Took weighted average of pure gas GCV

& CEF etc. using chemical composition

- Solid/Liquid fuels

･ Gathered directly measured GCV&CEF

data or asked measurement with fee

･ Excluded “measurement condition

unknown data” from provided data



2.3 Accuracy check by Iron/Steel model


Data: from 2010FY GES, Unit: PJ Before Revision

Coke Oven

(μ =0.986)

Blast Furnace

(μ = 0.427)

Converter Furnace

Coking Coal 1681.2

Oil Coke 22.5

Waste Plastics 0.1

Coke 890.2

(Sintered Iron Ore,

Quick Lime etc.)

PCI Coal 328.4

Coke O. Gas 363.9

Coal Tar 54.8

Coke 1241.0

Blast F. Gas 448.7

Converter Gas 72.8(Molten Pig iron,

with soluble carbon)

(Export,

Internal

Use)

(Crude Steel)

(Molten Pig Iron)

9


2.4 Accuracy check by Oil Refinery model


Feedstock Oil 478.3

Naphtha 673.6

Slack Gasoline

Feedstock Oil 374.9

Ret. Naphtha 205.9

NGL 466.5

Crude Oil 7446.3

Vacuum Distiller

Steam 147.0

"Topper"

Normal

Pressure

Distiller

Petrochemical

(Dissolution)

(Extraction)

Jet Fuel Oil 514.5

Kerosene 721.7

Diesel Oil 1638.1

Refinery Gas 394.8

LPG 226.3

Residual Oil 4057.5Fuel Oil A 646.9

Fuel Oil C 960.8

Others 309.0

(Blending, De-S)

FCCPremium Gas. 398.4

Regular Gas. 1622.2

Oil Coke 36.2

Reformer 657.9

RFO

Slack Gas Oil

Data: from 2010FY GES, Unit: PJ Before Revision

(Ethylene, BTX)

1153.5

(μ = 0.998)

10

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2.5 Interpolation and QA/QC

- Interpolation & approximation formula

･ For Coal, Crude Oil and Oil Products,

interpolation & approximation formula

are estimated by regression analysis

for possible “calibration” & “adjustment”

- QA/QC

･ Dare to quantified NCV&(NCV-)CEF

to compare IPCC 2006 G/L data

･ Compared data for verification


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3. Major Results

3.1 Quantification of GCV/CEF

- Quantified GCV, NCV and CEF for various

fuels for Japanese standard and GHGs

inventory for UNFCCC in 2014

- Approved by Gov. of Japan in 2015

- Detailed values are available here;

http://www.rieti.go.jp/users/

kainou-kazunari/14j047_e.pdf

- Most of the value proved to be

similar with IPCC 2006 G/L default


3. Major Results

3.2 Quantification of interpolation and

approximation formula (1) Coal

GCV= 0.05FC-0.03VF-0.03W-0.21A+0.83S+30.7 R2=0.904


18.00 20.00 22.00 24.00 26.00 28.00 30.00 32.00

総 (高位 )発熱量 G CV MJ/k g

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

重量含有率 wt％ (乾炭基準 Dry ba s e )

固定炭素分 Fixed Carbon揮発分 Volatile Fraction

輸入一般炭成分分析値-総(高位)発熱量相関Correlation of GCV vs Chemical Analysis Data for Steam Coal

18.00 20.00 22.00 24.00 26.00 28.00 30.00 32.00

総 (高位 )発熱量 G CV MJ/kg

22.00

23.00

24.00

25.00

26.00

27.00

炭素排出係数 ( 総（高位）) CE F by G CV gC/MJ

実測値 Measured Data成分分析値からの推計値 Estimated fromChemical Analysis Data

輸入一般炭総(高位)発熱量-炭素排出係数相関Correlation of GCV vs CEF(Gross) of Steam Coal

Fixed Carbon

Volatile F.

GCV vs CEF

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3. Major Results


approximation formula (2) Crude Oil

GCV = -23.0D2+73.7D-0.27S-7.47A-0.24W-7.33 R2=0.982


0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00

密度 Density kg/l

32.50

35.00

37.50

40.00

42.50

45.00

47.50

50.00

総発熱量 G CV体積当 MJ/l重量当 MJ/kg

原油密度- 総(高位)発熱量相関 [体積･重量]Correlation of Density vs GCV of Crude Oil

MJ/kg

MJ/l

42.00 43.00 44.00 45.00 46.00 47.00 48.00

総 (高位 )発熱量 G CV MJ/kg

17.50

18.00

18.50

19.00

19.50

20.00

20.50

炭素排出係数 ( 総（高位）) CE F by G CV gC/MJ

（実測値 Measured Data)総(高位)発熱量からの推計値Estimated Data by GCV

原油総(高位)発熱量-炭素排出係数相関 [重量]Correlation of GCV vs CEF(Gross) of Crude Oil

GCV vs CEF

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3. Major Results


approximation formula (3) Oil Prod.

GCV= -26.8D2+85.7D-0.74S+34.4A-22.8W-14.8 R2=0.982


41.00 42.00 43.00 44.00 45.00 46.00 47.00 48.00

総 (高位 )発熱量 G CV MJ/k g

17.50

18.00

18.50

19.00

19.50

20.00

20.50

21.00

21.50

炭素排出係数 (総（高位）) CE F by G CV gC/MJ ﾌﾟﾚﾐｱﾑｶｿ゙ﾘﾝ PremiumGasolineﾚｷﾞｭﾗｰｶ゙ｿﾘﾝ RegularGasolineｼﾞｪｯﾄ燃料油(灯油型)Jet Fuel/Keroseneｼﾞｪｯﾄ燃料油(ｶﾞｿﾘﾝ型)Jet Fuel/Gasoline灯　油 Kerosene軽　油 Diese l OilA重油 Fuel Oil AC重油 Fuel Oil C

石油製品総(高位)発熱量- 炭素排出係数相関 [重量]Correlation of GCV vs CEF(Gross) of Oil Products

体積当 MJ/l

重量当 MJ/kg

0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05

密度 Density k g/ l

30.00

32.00

34.00

36.00

38.00

40.00

42.00

44.00

46.00

48.00

総 (高位 )発熱量 G CV M J/kg, MJ/ i

ﾌﾟﾚﾐｱﾑｶｿ゙ﾘﾝ PremiumGasolineﾚｷﾞｭﾗｰｶ゙ｿﾘﾝ RegularGasolineｼﾞｪｯﾄ燃料油(灯油型) JetFuel/Keroseneｼﾞｪｯﾄ燃料油(ｶﾞｿﾘﾝ型)Jet Fuel/Gasoline灯　油 Kerosene軽　油 Diese l OilA重油 Fuel Oil AC重油 Fuel Oil C

石油製品密度-総(高位)発熱量相関Correlation of Density vs GCV of Oil Proiducts

MJ/kg

MJ/l GCV vs CEF

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3. Major Results

3.5 Accuracy improvement by revision

- Oil Refinery I/O seems to have been

improved, but needs further efforts


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0.965

0.970

0.975

0.980

0.985

0.990

0.995

1.000

1.005

1.010

Output/Imput ratio

Energy Balance

Carbon Balance

En ergy and Carb on balanc e of Oil Refin ery(GES-2014 edition, 1990-2014FY)

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0.930

0.940

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0.960

0.970

0.980

0.990

1.000

1.010

1.020

Output/Input ratio

Energy Balance

Carbon Balance

En ergy and Cabon balan ce of Coke Prod uct ion(GES-2013 edition, 1990-2014FY)

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4. Lessons Learned

4.1 Clear authority commitment needed

- GCV&CEF are used for “de-jure” and

“de-facto” mandatory standard in Japan

- In this case, MOE and METI clearly

committed to the revision and

requested cooperation for Japanese

industry sector with “one voice”

- This kind of comprehensive survey

for GCV&CEF revision are far

beyond the academia’s efforts reach


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4. Lessons Learned

4.2 Clear prior specification of conditions

for measurement were successful

- In this case, due to the delay of MOE &

METI budget arrangement, we had

enough preparation time to design how

to quantify efficiently and accurately

- Among all, clear prior specification and

announcement of measurement

conditions (“SATP” & “ar”) played

crucial role for valid data gathering


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4. Lessons Learned

4.3 Interpolation & approximation

formula of GCV&CEF work well

- For minor fuels and/or marginal change

of fuel characteristics are proved to be

able to calibrated or adjusted by inter-

polation & approximation formula

with certain accuracy

- This approach shall improve data

availability through enabling the use

of regular industrial analysis data


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4. Lessons Learned

4.4 Numerical modeling of industrial

process in energy statistics helpful

- In this case, Japanese GES have already

introduced numerical modeling

approach for major energy transformation

process such as Oil Refinery in 2005

- That approach enabled both easy

identification of accuracy problems

and clear expression of the

outcome of the improvement


revision of calorific value and carbon emission factor for

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