rotterdam climate initiative visiting brazil

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Rotterdam Climate Initiative visiting Brazil

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Sustainability of bioenergy production in Brazil:

perspectives and impacts on tradeArnaldo Walter

University of Campinas andSustainability Research Program

of CTBE – Brazilian Bioethanol Science and Technology Lab.

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The energy matrix in Brazil; biofuels contribution (current and in 2020); the ethanol industry and the biodiesel industry.

Regarding sustainability: requirements (e.g., in Europe) and the challenges we need to face.

Diversification of the production/Diversification of the industry.

Some thoughts about biomass production and the potential for trading.

Contents

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The energy matrix in Brazil; biofuels contribution (current and in 2020); the ethanol industry and the biodiesel industry.

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47.5% as renewable energy sources / sugarcane products 19.3% (~45% ethanol/~55% bagasse)

Source: EPE (2011)

Primary Energy Supply in Brazil

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Large-scale ethanol production as fuel since 1975 (hydrated and anhydrous). Production estimated as about 28 BL in 2010 (~70% hydrated ethanol) Consumption in the transport sector in 2010 estimated as 23.3 BL (roughly

equivalent to the consumption of pure gasoline, volume basis).

Source: EPE (2010); MAPA (2011); ANP (2011)

Ethanol in Brazil

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All ethanol production is based on sugarcane.

Sugarcane production in 2010 was about 630 Mt.

Sugar production in the harvest season 2009/2010 was more than 33 Mt (about 5% higher than in the previous season) and can reach 35 Mt in the harvest season 2010-2011.

Brazilian production of sugar was about 25% of the world production in 2010/2011.

About 8.5 Mha cropped with sugarcane, with 53% of the production in state of São Paulo.

Source: EPE (2009); MAPA (2011); CONAB (2011)

Sugarcane production

Expansion is mostly around state of São Paulo in the Central part of Brazil.

About 440 mills in Brazil, with high concentration in the state of São Paulo and surrounds.

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Source: EPE (2011)

Predicted growth of ethanol production

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Source: EPE (2011)

Required growth of cane sugar

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Biodiesel production started in March 2005.

B5 blends have been mandatory since January 2010 (this was originally scheduled for 2013).

The production in 2010 was 2.4 BL, large enough to fulfil the targets.

The bulk of the production is based on soy oil (~85%) (~10% is produced from animal fats and 5% from other feedstocks).

There is no aim on exporting biodiesel, at least in short term.

Source: ANP (2011)

Biodiesel

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Source: EPE (2011)

Predicted biodiesel production in 2019

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Regarding sustainability: requirements (e.g., in Europe) and the challenges we need to face.

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Source: Scarlat & Dallemand (2011)

Sustainability Requirements (e.g. in Europe) (1)

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•Short-term goal: the aim is evaluating the sustainability of bioethanol production from sugarcane, considering current technology and all changes that can be implemented in the years to come.

•Mid-term goal: the aim is on evaluating the bioethanol production from a sustainability point of view, taking into account all science and technology innovations that shall be incorporated to the production chain.

Sustainability Research Program (e.g. at CTBE) (1)

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Impacts onbiodiversity


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•Three priority aspects were defined by CTBE taking into account both the national and the international agenda: energy balance and balance on GHG emissions; socio-economic impacts; and impacts on the availability and on the quality of water resources.

•Strategy was defined: (1) based on priorities, (2) on capacity skills, (3) on the necessity to reach solid results in short-term.

•The strategy is based on working with partners, in Brazil and abroad, in other to (1) reach better results in short to mid-term, (2) lower costs, and (3) also for recognizing the existing expertise.


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•Ongoing partnerships: ICONE (modeling of LUC and ILUC); DeltaCO2 (carbon stocks on soil and gaseous emissions); Reporter Brasil (working conditions).

•Partnerships under discussion: INPE (for fostering analysis of satellite images); EMBRAPA (on water resources); Utrecht University (prospective studies); Texas University (water resources); Imperial College (socio-economic impacts and water resources).

• In the context a bilateral agreement (BE-BASIC/BIOEN): integrated sustainability analysis – modeling, data gathering and assessment.


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Some comments regarding social and economic dimensions

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• In Brazil (and many other countries), so far, there are few research activities founded on well established methodologies and supported on solid statistics analysis. It is not possible to generalize results (good or bad) of case studies.

•CTBE’s priority has been on evaluating the impacts at the level the production activity takes place.

•Research activities focused on developing indicators and on applying models (e.g., input-output matrix) at the lowest aggregated level (e.g., municipalities).

•The necessity of understanding the synergies between water use and social aspects, (and also LUC, due to biodiversity change, etc.).

Social aspects

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•The current feasibility of ethanol production from sugarcane, in Brazil, has implied lower focus on economic aspects.

•The issue should be addressed properly, in the context of production diversification (e.g., production of second generation ethanol, new products, use of residues, competition of materials for different uses).

•Proper data basis is required. Methodologies should be developed/adapted. Capacity skills should be enhanced.

Economic aspects

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The environmental dimension and its priorities

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•The main issues have been brought by the international agenda: GHG emissions, LUC and ILUC, impacts on water resources, impacts on biodiversity, ….

• In most cases (or even in all above mentioned cases?), the main constrain is not on personal skills, but on the lack of accurate information, related with the reality in Brazil.

•Let’s see some examples …

Environmental aspects

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•Methodologies/models are well known. •The lack of proper information about:1. Carbon stocks on soil, considering different soils,

different agricultural practices, different land use changes, …;

2. Emissions along the life cycle of fossil fuels produced in Brazil;

3. The production and use of fertilizers (and their substitutes);

4. The impact of new agricultural practices, including mechanical harvesting and trash disposal in the soil.

GHG emissions

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•Modeling is a new issue in Brazil (and also worldwide) and models should be developed/adapted/improved.

•The lack of proper data/information regarding:1. Dynamics of land use change;2. Imprecision on evaluations (e.g., elasticities);3. The necessity of taking advantage of satellite

images;4. The impacts of increasing yields;5. The necessity of understanding (and also proper

evaluating) the impacts of new technologies and new agricultural practices.

LUC and ILUC impacts

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• It seems that there is lack of specific knowledge concerned to the impacts of sugarcane cropping on water resources.

• It is (still) unknown:1. The actual impact of sugarcane cropping (in traditional areas) on

water resources, considering availability and quality;2. There is even less knowledge on the impacts of sugarcane

cropping over water resources in new producing areas;3. The impacts of new agricultural practices on water resources is

unknown;4. Is there potential advantage of irrigation in some specific cases?5. How water resources could be managed in the context of

sugarcane expansion?6. What are the impacts of new industrial technologies on water

demand?

Impacts on water resources

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•The issue in (relatively) new regarding sugarcane production. What is known regarding biodiversity in traditional sugarcane areas and what is necessary to know in order to avoid problems in new producing areas?

•What are the actual impacts of extensive monoculture of sugarcane?

•What are the synergies between biodiversity and social aspects?

•What are the synergies between biodiversity and water use in large-scale?

•What are the impacts of new agricultural practices?

Biodiversity

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Diversification of the production/Diversification of the industry.

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First Generation Industrial Unit

Burn beforeharvesting

Juice(sucrose)

Bagasse

Field

TrashEnergy to the plant

(thermal and electric)

SugarcaneOthers

Yeast

Bioethanol GI

Sugar

Polymers

Energy source(liquid fuel)

Bioelectricity(to the grid)

Cattle feed

stalks

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Quarto nívelQuinto nívelTrash

Bagasse

Pretreatment

HydrolysisLignin

HexosesBioethanol GII

Sugar Chemistry

Lignin ChemistryPhenolic route

Energy

Pentoses

Energy (biogas)

Bioethanol GIIFurane ChemistryXilose - Xilytol

Energy to the plant(thermal and electric)

Bioelectricity(to the grid)

Second Generation Industrial Unit

Lignin celluloseslurry

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Electricity production from sugarcane residues is about 4.5% of the total electricity production. Surplus electricity is equivalent to the self-consumption, but could be much larger (3-4 times).

Other uses of ethanol are increasing, but still represents less than 10% of the total production. However, some new mills aim at the production (exclusively) of plastics and chemicals (ethylene, and polyethylene).

Diversification: electricity production

Source: MME-EPE (2010)

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Due to the technological developments achieved both on the agriculture and on industry sides, average (combined) production yields have grown from 3,000 liters/ha/year (67 GJ/ha/yr) in early 1980s to 6,500 liters/ha/year (145 GJ/ha/yr) in 2005.

Average production yields based on conventional process can reach 8,000 liters/ha/year (178 GJ/ha/yr) before 2015, while best practices would allow more than 8,000 liters/ha/year.

Efficiency growth

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Suga

rcan

e yi

eld

(t/ha

)

Source: MAPA (2009)

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Some thoughts about biomass production and the potential for trading.

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Some thoughts – sugarcane & biofuels

• Sugarcane is the most efficient biomass: productivity and costs. For developing the biorefinery concept, sugarcane is an excellent raw material.

• Sugarcane industry is diversifying its production.• Ethanol from sugarcane is the benchmark of biofuels.• Challenges: (re)organizing the supply chain; improving its

sustainability; diversifying the production (includes 2G).• Sugarcane and ethanol production in Brazil are sustainable,

considering principles and criteria currently considered.• Biodiesel: the domestic market is large enough for the current industry.• Other feedstocks/other biofuels (palm oil; bio-kerosene, …)

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Some thoughts – solid biomass

• Well established wood industry; large potential, and low production costs.

• A reasonable share of the wood industry (in Brazil) can be considered sustainable; certified production is common.

• Pellets – the lack of culture: the domestic market is small; stakeholders haven’t realized the opportunities; long-term contracts are necessary.

• The lack of infrastructure: transportation costs are very high. Ports are a constrain.

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•[email protected]•[email protected]

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