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MEDIA RELEASE

8 October 2013

SAARF AMPS Jun 13 Results for July 2012-June 2013 of 17

IMPORTANT NOTE

This report is EMBARGOED and may not be published in any media UNTIL

noon, Thursday,

10 October 2013.

SAARF AMPS® JUN 13

SA’s NEW ADULT POPULATION (15+)

A new benchmark for media consumptionSAARF AMPS Jun 13 (July 2012 to June 2013) establishes a new trend line for media consumption data in South Africa.

The inclusion of population estimates modelled on the latest data from Statistics SA’s Census 2011 has had a marked effect on this release of AMPS. This will also be the case for RAMS and TAMS, once the population estimates are included in these surveys from November 2013, and from early next year, respectively.

For the past ten years, the annual population estimates applied to SAARF’s media audience surveys have been based on the population data from Census 2001.

Since official census data is only available every ten years, population estimates must be made to ensure that SAARF’s media currencies stay abreast of population changes in the country. Estimates of actual population levels are modelled by SAARF’s demographic contractor, IHS, using sources of data such as birth, death, emigration, immigration, and AIDS infection rates.

Previous population updates were done for AMPS Dec 11 (Jan-Dec 2011), released in March 2012, and reflecting mid-2011 estimates supplied by IHS.

In 2012, however, population levels were not updated, since the results of Census 2011 were imminent. With the recent release of Census 2011 data down to a magisterial district level, SAARF has now incorporated this 2011 population data.

The current release of AMPS Jun 13 reflects mid-2013 population updates, incorporating results from Census 2011, and estimated up to 2013 levels by IHS.

Population figures, updated to 2013 IHS estimates, are:

37.214-million, which is an increase of 6.5% over the previous survey (AMPS Dec 12, Jan-Dec 2012), with an additional 2.279-million adults in the market.

The household population has increased by 6.4% to 14.978-million: an additional 904 000 households.


IMPORTANT NOTE

This report is EMBARGOED and may not be published in any media UNTIL

noon, Thursday,

10 October 2013.

South Africa has four new metros: eMalahleni (Witbank); Brakpan; Roodepoort; and Uitenhage, which is now a metro in its own right.

Statistically significant increases are

marked with , while significant

decreases are marked with .

OVERALL IMPACT: A NEW TREND LINE

IMPACT ON A GEOGRAPHIC LEVEL

The inclusion of 2.279-million more adults to the AMPS universe has established a new trend line.

AMPS Jun 2013 sets a new benchmark for all media consumption data, since it is impossible to say with statistical certainty whether changes seen in this AMPS release over previous surveys are due to the large changes in population data, or to actual market forces.

This means that any changes in media consumption may or may not be an indication of shifting performance in the marketplace.

The upshot is that AMPS Jun 13 CANNOT be compared with any previous AMPS releases.

The changes in population have not been uniform across the country. Each province has been affected to a different extent, with a very clear migration taking place to the country’s large economic centres.

The top five municipalities – Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, Pretoria and Ekurhuleni – now contribute 53.2% of South Africa’s economic output.

Almost all population increases have been into the metro areas, which are significantly up by over two million. Consequently, the country’s proportion of urban/rural has shifted, with the rural component in decline.

The urban:rural split is now 64.2%:35.8%, compared to 62%:38% in AMPS Dec 12.

Metros Cities/large towns Small towns/villages Settlements/rural05

1015202530

354045

36.4

13.6 12.1

3840.2

12.5 11.5

35.8

Community size

AMPS Dec 12 AMPS Jun 13

% o

f tot

al a

dult

popu

latio

n (1

5+)

GAUTENG


Gauteng has been significantly affected by the population changes, with its population growing by 16%. The province now has a population of 9.516-million, an increase of 1.316-million people over AMPS Dec 12. The province is currently home to 25.6% of the total adult population, up from 23.5% previously.

All metros in the province are showing substantially increased populations:

Greater Johannesburg, up 451 000 adults to 2.578-million; Soweto, up 219 000 people, pushing it over the million mark to 1.023-million; Reef, up 527 000 to 3.889-million; and Pretoria, up 312 000 to 1.927-million.

KWAZULU-NATAL

This province has experienced a significant decline in terms of its contribution to total population. Gains in other provinces, and a loss of 43 000 adults in KwaZulu-Natal has decreased this province’s proportion to 19%, from 20.4% in AMPS Dec 12. KwaZulu-Natal’s population is now 7.075-million.

The decline has been in rural areas, with the populations of Durban and Pietermaritzburg remaining comparable to the levels of the previous survey.

EASTERN CAPE

South Africa’s third-biggest province now contributes significantly less to overall population, with its proportion dropping from 13.4% to 12.3%. A loss of 107 000 adults takes its population to 4.565-million. As in other provinces, losses were seen in non-metro areas, with Port Elizabeth and new metropole Uitenhage holding their own.

WESTERN CAPE

The Western Cape’s population grew by 22.8%, with an additional 809 000 people added to the pot. The total population is 4.365-million, representing 11.7% of the total population (up from 10.2%). Of this 809 000 growth, about half was due to a real increase in population, and half to coverage changes.

Previous surveys have sampled 98.5% of the total adult population, excluding a tiny percentage of minority sub-populations which couldn’t be identified for sampling in specific areas. For example, since the distribution of blacks outside of Cape Town was sparse, it was not possible to identify a specific area to sample for this group.

If during fieldwork, black people outside of Cape Town were picked up, they were interviewed and given the weight for blacks in that area, but wouldn’t be upweighted to represent the whole of the Western Cape.

The AMPS sample has now been expanded, primarily in the Western Cape but to a less-noticeable extent in all other provinces, giving AMPS 100% coverage of the adult population.

Media with a Western Cape focus should bear this in mind when looking at their data; coverage of Cape Town remains the same, but outside of the metropole, the universe expansion will be evident in the data.

LIMPOPO


Has experienced a significant decline, with a loss of 78 000 adults reducing its overall proportion to 9.8%, from 10.7% previously. Its population is now 3.646-million. Mining issues are likely to have been a causative factor.

MPUMALANGA

Gained 336 000 adults. Its population is 2.824-million, or 7.6% of total.

NORTH WEST

Has gained 192 000 adults, taking its population to 2.496-million. It now contributes 6.7% of the total population.

FREE STATE

Down from 5.9% to 5.3% of the total population, with a loss of 114 000 adults. Metros held their own while rural areas declined. The provincial population is 1.964-million.

NORTHERN CAPE

Experienced a slight decrease of 32 000 adults, with a stable population proportion of 2.1%, or 764 000.

Gauteng25.6%

KwaZulu-Natal19.0%

Eastern Cape12.3%

Western Cape11.7%

Limpopo9.8%

Mpumalanga7.6%

North West6.7%

Free State5.3% Northern Cape

2.1%

Provincial contribution to total popu-lation

(SOURCE: SAARF AMPS Jun 13)


17.931-million versus 19.283-million

48.2%:51.8%

IMPACT ON THE AGE PROFILE

Gauten

g

KwaZulu-Nata

l

Easter

n Cape

Western

Cape

Limpopo

Mpumalanga

North W

est

Free S

tate

Northern

Cape

0.0001.0002.0003.0004.0005.0006.0007.0008.0009.000

10.000

New provincial populations at a glance


Popu

latio

n siz

e in

mill

ions

The distribution of adults by age has changed significantly.

There has been a large decline in the total number of 15-24-year-olds – 263 000 down – which, coming out of the growth of the population as a whole, means this group has declined in actual numbers, rather than just proportionally. This age group represents 25.7% of the total population, down from 28.1% in the previous survey.

The 25-34 age group has shown significant growth, upping its proportion by 9.7% to 24.8% of all adults. This group saw an additional 1.337-million join its ranks. Immigration is a large factor here.

Despite a rise of 300 000 in number, the 35-49 age group declined by 2.8% proportionally, from 25.2% in AMPS Dec 12 to 24.5% currently.

The 50+ age group grew its numbers by 904 000, increasing its proportion of the total population from 24.0% in the previous survey, to 25.0% currently. This increase in the 50+ demographic has not come through from any one population group, but from all population groups.


IMPACT ON THE RACE PROFILE

15-24 25-34 35-49 50+0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%28.1%

22.6%25.2% 24.0%

25.7% 24.8% 24.5% 25.0%

New age profiles


As a

pro

porti

on o

f tot

al a

dults

(15+

)

The black population has been the biggest beneficiary of the 2.279-million rise in population. There are 2.2-million more black adults in the AMPS universe, taking this group up to 28.985-million, or 77.9% of total (over the previous survey’s 76.7%).

The white population is down by 375 000, to 3.833-million. It now represents 10.3% of the total population, compared to 12.0% previously.

The Coloured population has kept pace with previous levels (rising from 8.6% to 9.2%), with a gain of 403 000 people, taking it up to 3.410-million.

The Indian population has remained proportionally stable (2.6%), despite a growth of 50 000 in total. This group’s total is now 986 000.


Black White Coloured Indian0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%76.7%

12.0% 8.6%2.7%

77.9%

10.3% 9.2%2.6%

New race profiles


Perc

enta

ge o

f tot

al a

dult

popu

latio

n (1

5+)

A growth of 2.2-

million

A de-cline of

375 000

A growth

of 403 000

A growth

of 50 000

IMPACT ON LSMs

IMPACT ON HOUSEHOLD INCOME

While the current LSMs are not comparable either in thousands or in percentages to previous AMPS releases, at a top level the quotas remain very similar to those seen in AMPS Dec 12.

Average household income shows a similar distribution across the income brackets as in the previous survey. The population is slightly more well off, with the average household income per month now R9 364.

Income groups AMPS Dec 12 AMPS Jun 13

Up to R799 2.8% 2.7%

R800-R1 399 9.3% 9.4%

R1 400-R2 499 11.9% 11.5%

R2 500-R4 999 21.4% 20.8%

R5 000-R7 999 16.4% 16.6%

R8 000-R10 999 11.8% 11.5%

R11 000-R19 999 13.0% 13.6%

R20 000+ 13.3% 14.0%

Results not compared to previous survey


IMPACT ON WORK STATUS

IMPACT ON EDUCATION LEVELS

Working f

ull-time

Working p

art-time

Housewife

Studen

t

Retired

Unemployed

05

101520253035

26.3

8.46.7

16.610.7

31.427.2

8.8 7

15.111

30.9

Work status


Perc

enta

ge o

f tot

al a

dult

popu

latio

n (1

5+)

Basic literacy Primary complete + (functional literacy)

Matric + University degree completed

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0

100.0

98.692.1

46.3

3.4

98.792.2

46.7

3.6

Education


Perc

enta

ge o

f tot

al a

dult

popu

latio

n (1

5+)


MEDIA AUDIENCE RESULTS

TOTAL PRINT

AMPS Jun 13 CANNOT be compared with any previous AMPS releases.

As stated earlier, AMPS Jun 2013 sets a new benchmark for all media consumption data, since it is impossible to say with statistical certainty whether changes seen in this AMPS release over previous surveys are due to the large changes in population data, or to actual market forces.

AMPS Jun 2013, therefore, marks the beginning of a new “reality”.

Media data cannot be compared to previous surveys. Changes seen are not necessarily true increases or decreases, but rather a re-adjustment, giving the market a better estimate of reality based on the latest population information.

The effects of the population changes cannot be unpacked from the current figures by removing additional audience groups, or adjusting declined demographics upwards.

Media inflation calculations are therefore also invalid, since it is statistically unsound to make comparisons with previous AMPS releases.

Average issue readership of any AMPS newspaper/magazine is 63.6%, with a total adult audience of 23.684-million.

Print owners are advised to look at the data underpinning their topline readership figures to get a better understanding of what might have happened to these figures.

For example, Drum’s readership is 284 000 stronger after the population update, while Bona’s is down by 162 000.

On closer inspection of the two titles’ readership profiles, however, one would see that while Drum has a third of its readers in Gauteng, which experienced a massive boost in its population, Bona only has a quarter of its readers from this province. Bona has more readers in the Eastern Cape, Free State and KwaZulu-Natal, all three of which lost population.

READING PLATFORMS

Over and above reading of traditional paper products, 6.5% of adults read a newspaper or magazine online, while 4.1% consume print via a cellphone.

REPERTOIRE

The average number of print publications read, based on readers, is 3.86.


NEWSPAPERS

Average issue readership for any AMPS newspaper is 17.674-million, or 47.5% of the adult population.

DAILY NEWSPAPERS

Average issue readership of any daily is 29.4%, or 10.936-million.

The average number of daily AMPS newspaper publications read, based on readers, is 1.31.

WEEKLY NEWSPAPERS

The new benchmark penetration for weeklies is 31.8%, or 11.830-million readers.

The average number of weekly AMPS newspaper publications read, based on readers, is 1.70.

MONTHLY NEWSPAPERS

This sector’s new benchmark readership is 2.7%, or 995 000 readers.

EFFECT OF REGIONALISATION ON NEWSPAPERS

While the inclusion of the new population data has not caused large penetration changes on a general publication level, the move to regionalise newspaper titles has had a noticeable impact on a number of regional publications.

From AMPS Jun 13, all newspapers are only analysed in their distribution areas, which were provided to SAARF by the newspaper owners.

When readership is picked up outside of the publication’s official area of distribution, this readership has been removed from the AMPS database, since owners of regional newspapers agreed that this readership is not of value to advertisers.

Vuk'uzenzele (849 000)

Rapport (1.350-mil)

City Press (1.989-mil)

Soccer Laduma (3.133-mil)

Sunday Times (3.651-mil)

2.3

3.6

5.3

8.4

9.8

Top 5 national/multi-provincial news-papers

by reach in % (with average issue readership)


The Star (661 000)

Sunday World (1.620-mil)

Sowetan (1.692-mil)

Sunday Sun (2.646-mil)

Daily Sun (5.488-mil)

1.8

4.4

4.5

7.1

14.7

Top 5 newspapers for Gauteng and surroundsby reach in % (with average issue readership)

Isolezwe ngoMgqibelo (523 000)

Isolezwe ngeSonto (704 000)

Ilanga (810 000)

Ilanga LangeSonto (917 000)

Isolezwe (1.049-mil)

1.4

1.9

2.2

2.5

2.8

Top 5 newspapers for KwaZulu-Natalby reach in % (with average issue readership)


MAGAZINES

Cape Argus (303 000)

Son op Sondag (454 000)

Die Burger (484 000)

Daily Voice (528 000)

Son (1.130-mil)

0.8

1.2

1.3

1.4

3

Top 5 newspapers for the Western Capeby reach in % (with average issue readership)

Top newspaper title in the Eastern Cape: Daily Dispatch, 0.6% reach, 224 000 readers.

Top newspaper title in the Free State/Northern Cape: Volksblad, 0.3% reach, 126 000 readers.

Magazine penetration has held its own against the new population update – if it were possible to compare current figures with the previous survey, few statistically significant changes would be seen.

The new benchmark for total magazine readership is 46.8%, or 17.403-million readers.

The new benchmark average issue readerships for the various magazine formats are:

Any weekly magazine: 24.4% readership, 9.080-million readers.

Any fortnightly magazine: 3.9% readership, 1.436-million readers.

Any monthly magazine: 36.7% readership, 13.674-million readers.

Any alternate-monthly magazine: 4.8% readership, 1.800-million.

Any quarterly magazine: 2.0% readership, 732 000 readers.

The average number of AMPS magazines read, based on readers, is 3.09.

FIRST READERSHIP FIGURES

Grazia’s first 12-month measure is 63 000, or 0.2% penetration into the adult (15+) market. The title’s audience is 78.1% female, 40.6% are aged 25-34, 29.9% are aged 15-24, and 68.7% are in LSM 8-10.


TELEVISION

Good Housekeeping first 12-month readership figure is 137 000, or 0.4% reach. The publication’s readers are majority female (82.7%), aged 50+ (31.1%), and in LSM 8-10 (59.3%).

Top Gear has started with a bang, achieving a 12-month readership of 731 000, or 2.0% readership. The majority of readers are male (81.5%), aged 15-24 (42.6%), and 54.4% are in LSM 8-10.

People (1.276-mil)

Amakhosi (1.724-mil)

Huisgenoot (2.224-mil)

Move! (2.228-mil)

You (2.304-mil)

True Love (2.609-mil)

Bona (2.909-mil)

Drum (3.027-mil)

KickOff (3.567-mil)

DStv (4.067-mil)

3.44.6

666.2

77.8

8.19.6

10.9

Top 10 magazinesby reach in % (with average issue readership)

(Please note that SAARF TAMS® is the official currency for television.)

The new benchmark figure for television viewing is 91.6%, with 34.095-million viewers.

The new benchmarks for individual television platforms (7 days) are, in order of size:

1. SABC 1 is viewed by 79.3% of the total adult population, amounting to 29.521-million viewers.

2. SABC 2: 71.2% viewership, 26.479-million viewers.

3. e.tv: 66.7%, viewed by 24.836-million adults.

4. SABC 3: 56.6% viewership, 21.062-million viewers.

5. Total DStv: reaching 31.4% of adults (11.669-million).

6. Total community TV: 10.0% viewership, 3.738-million viewers. Soweto TV commands 9% of viewing, showing its dominance in the community TV sector.

7. M-Net main channel: 6.9%, 2.560-million.

8. Total Top TV: 1.3%, 483 000.


RADIO

OUT-OF-HOME

(Please note that SAARF RAMS® is the official currency for radio.)

The new benchmark for radio listenership is 34.257-million listeners per week, with a reach of 92.1%.

Total commercial radio: 33.272-million listeners, with a reach of 89.4% (past 7 days); and

Total community radio: 9.375-million listeners, with a reach of 25.2% (past 7 days).

RADIO LISTENING PLATFORMS

On top of listening on traditional devices, 29.5% of adults listen to radio on their cellphones, 5.8% listen online, and 0.5% listen on DStv’s audio channels.

(All formats mentioned are those which carry advertising.)

In addition to the population update making comparison with previous AMPS releases impossible, this media sector has also completely changed its questionnaire methodology as of AMPS Jun 13.

For both these reasons, comparisons with previous AMPS data are invalid.

Trailers

Building/construction site wraps

Bus shelters

Buses

Litterbins

Billboards

Street poles

Minibus taxis

29.2%

35.0%

35.2%

44.2%

51.8%

62.4%

63.7%

68.6%

New out-of-home media benchmarks% of adults exposed to the medium (p7d)


INTERNET

CINEMA

Access internet yesterday: 6.922-million users, 18.6% of the total adult population.

Access internet in the past 7 days: 9.035-million users, 24.3%

Access internet in the past 4 weeks: 10.182-million users, 27.4%

Yesterday 7 days 4 weeks Yesterday 7 days 4 weeks0

10203040506070

18.6 24.3 27.4

53.4

64.8 69.3New benchmarks for internet usage

% of total adults % of LSM 9-10 adults

Cinema up to 7 days: 415 000 people attended a screening, 1.1% of total adults

Cinema up to 4 weeks: 1.475-million people attended, 4.0% of total adults

Up to 4 weeks

Up to 3 months

Up to 12 months

Up to 4 weeks

Up to 3 months

Up to 12 months

05

101520253035404550

48.1

1813.7

27.2

49.6New benchmarks for cinema attendance

% of total adults % of LSM 9-10 adults

ends


Note to the editor:

The South African Audience Research Foundation (SAARF) is the provider of research data to the advertising, marketing and media industries. Its main objective is to direct and publish media and product/brand research for the benefit of its stakeholders, thereby providing data for target marketing and a common currency for the buying and selling of media space and time. The information is also used by media owners for strategic programme and editorial planning.

SAARF conducts a number of major media and product/brand surveys. The All Media and Products Survey (AMPS®), includes extensive information on media as well as products, services, brands, attitudes, interests and activities and is South Africa's only free source of data on nearly 120 product categories and over 1 500 brands. Other important surveys are the Radio Audience Measurement Survey (RAMS ®); the Television Audience Measurement Survey (TAMS®) and the SAARF Out of Home Media Survey (OHMS). SAARF also provides comprehensive information on target groups, and supplies segmentation tools which include the SAARF Living Standards Measure (LSM®), SAARF Life Stages, SAARF Lifestyles and SAARF Attitudes, which are widely used for segmenting target markets.

For further information, please contact:

Bridget von Holdt, Glasshouse Communication Management

Tel: (011) 646-9992

Email: [email protected]


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