Sales

Activated Hub

Activated AverageActivated Min. degree

Time

The network structure affects the shape of the sales curve Heterogeneous example

Activated Hub

Activated AverageActivated Min. degree

Time

The degree distribution affects the shape of the diffusion curve Homogenous example

Sales

Nu

m. of

nod

es

The degree distribution affects the shape of the diffusion curve

Power Law Degree Dist.

Degree

Normal Degree Dist.

TimeTime

Log

( A

dop

tion

)

Degree

Adoption curve (scale free dist.)

Adoption curve (normal dist.)

network-degree space

Estimating the network activation patterns from diffusion data

Degree distribution estimation example (social-media group membership adoptions over time )

45% of the activation patterns do not include hubs

sales-temporal space

sales-temporal spaceAverage % forecasting error for 20 cases (early stages):

Bass 99%, S. Gompertz 92%, NUI 50%Network model 34%

Forecasting adoption using the estimated network activation pattern

Adoption forecasting

Bass

S.Gompertz

NUI

network-degree space

sales-temporal space