sc21 hpc market update

©2021 Intersect360 Research

SC21 HPC Market UpdateNovember 2021

Addison Snell, CEO, [email protected]

Dan Olds, Chief Research Officer, [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]



Agenda

• Check-in on 2021 HPC market forecast• Highlights from new comprehensive study on HPC software environments• Operating systems, middleware, developer tools, applications• 11 different application domains• Typical/maximum scalability, cloud usage, machine learning• Views on scalability and performance on various processing architectures

• Upcoming Winter Classic Student Cluster Competition• Look ahead to SC21


Worldwide HPC Market ForecastFive-Year Forecast, 2021 to 2025


HPC Market Forecast: From June 2021

• Worldwide HPC market recovers to reach $60.2 billion in 2025.• Cloud will continue to grow at over 20% CAGR on top of very high growth 2020.• AI supports ongoing growth of both HPC and cloud.• HPC market will rebound in 2021 from COVID-19 echo-effect as sales cycles come back in.• HPC server revenue growth will continue to concentrate in larger configurations.• Fueled in part by Exascale computing• Lower-end systems have higher replacement by cloud computing• Entry-level HPC servers will be essentially flat after COVID-19 rebound

• At this point, we do not anticipate full-year, supply-side effect of microprocessor shortage.


HPC Forecast ($000): From June 2021

• Less variability than in original pandemic forecast from July 2020

• 16.4% pandemic ”rebound” 2021 over 2020

• Long-term HPC growth:• 5yr CAGR: 9.1%• 6yr CAGR: 7.5%

• Cloud computing continues huge growth and exceeds $7 billion in 2025• 5yr CAGR: 22.8%• 6yr CAGR: 30.7% -

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OtherCloudNetworksSoftwareServicesStorageServers

16.4% Y/Y

9.1% CAGR

7.5% CAGR


The Hazards of Forecasting

“ “


June vs. Today

June• Vaccinations underway;

heading back to “normal” economic activity• Aware of potential supply chain

issues but hopeful they will not have an effect on HPC• Anticipating one U.S. Exascale

system will fully revenue in 2021

November• Vaccinations have been uneven;

Delta variant; some industries not rebounded• Supply chain issues are delaying

some HPC deliveries, especially entry-level and midrange• It’ll be close; China systems are

there, but what is the revenue?


Lingering COVID-19 Effects

• Some industries are not back to full “normal” economic activity• Automotive and aerospace manufacturing, oil/gas, electronics, academia all

seem short of the full projected rebound• Pharmaceuticals spending continuing strong

• Continued variation by geographic region• Entry-level and midrange are more affected than high end and supercomputing• Cloud still helps manage uncertainty; cloud poised to continue very high growth

Preliminary insights. Full analysis after year end.


Supply Chain Disruptions

• Several users have reported to us longer lead times in ordering and delivery of HPC systems. Possibly concentrated on entry-level and midrange systems. Not restricted to any vendor or region.• Some vendors have begun reporting effects on supply chain disruptions in

quarterly reports. Largest system vendors – HPE and Dell – have offset quarters that have not yet reported on August – October. Stay tuned.• Cloud again can help pick up the slack.



Exascale Systems

• U.S.: Our forecast model assumed revenue from the first U.S. Exascale system, Frontier at ORNL, to be recognized by HPE by year-end. It will be close as to whether it passes acceptance for revenue recognition. • China: The Next Platform reports two Exascale systems have begun operation in

China. We have not verified this independently but believe it. That said:• These systems are built, not bought.• What is the revenue associated with these systems? There is no system

vendor and no sale. At most, there may be some component sales to track.



Revised 2021 Forecast Guidance

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Original 2021 Forecast:Rebound, +16.4% Y/Y

Revised Guidance:+6% to +12% Y/Y

No change to five-year outlook at this time


Revised 2021 Guidance, +6% to +12% Y/Y

Low: +6%• No COVID-19 rebound:

previously delayed sales are lost• Significant supply chain

disruptions to systems in Q4• No Exascale revenue from

Frontier; no identifiable revenue from Chinese systems

High: +12%• Limited COVID-19 rebound in

some industries• Little to no effect of supply chain

disruption in Q4• Recognized revenue from

Frontier, or identifiable system or component revenue for Chinese Exascale systems


Additional Research: End-User Surveys

End-User Ratings of HPC Vendors: Processors, Servers, Storage, and Cloud

HPC Technology Adoption:Processors, Interconnects, Storage, Cooling, More

HPC Budget Trends:CAPEX vs. OPEX, AI vs. HPC, growth trends

Now Complete:HPC Software Environments


New Survey: HPC Software

Comprehensive study of operating systems, middleware, developer tools, and primary applications across 11 HPC application domains• Usage share of ISV vs. open-source vs. in-house• Top applications in bio-sciences, business analytics, chemistry, CFD, engineering, finance,

geophysics, physics, scientific research, visualization, weather/climate• Typical and maximum job scalability by application• Cloud affinity by application• Scalability by processing architectures, by domain• Incorporation of machine learning

Partial insights here.Full results available to clients of

HPC advisory service


Operating Systems

CentOS Linux33%

Red Hat Enterprise Linux24%

Ubuntu Linux 14%

SUSE Linux Enterprise Server

8%

Rocky Linux7%

Debian Linux6%

Oracle Linux5%

Gentoo Linux1%

Other2%

Note: Preliminary, using draft formula for share from primary vs. secondary usage. Subject to change.


ISV vs. Open Source vs. In-House

In-house developed

35%

Open-source44%

Commercial licensed

applications21%

Continued increase of open source vs. ISV

Python has become as common as C/C++ for active development


Typical and Max Scalability

1-4 nodes49.5%

5-8 nodes14.2%

9-16 nodes12.5%

17-32 nodes10.8%

33-128 nodes8.0%

129 - 1,000 nodes3.2% 1,000 nodes +

1.7%

1-16 nodes55.8%

17-32 nodes14.1%

33-128 nodes15.5%

129 - 1,000 nodes8.4%

1,000+ nodes6.1%

Typical Job Scalability Maximum Job Scalability


Top Biosciences Applications

BLAST 15%mpiBLAST 10%

Bowtie 9%Samtools 8%

BWA 7%HMMER 7%

GATX 6%Rosetta 6%

MrBayes 6%Relion 6%Trinity 5%Galaxy 4%

AutoDock 4%Casava 3%Velvet 3%

Dock 2%Accelrys Discover Studio 1%

Sequest 1%

Bioscience applications (% of mentions)

Available for all 11 application domains


Cloud Affinity

All on-prem84%

3%

3%

About even7%

1%

1%

All cloud1%

Using the 1-7 scale below, please let us know where the following applications are run.1 = exclusively on-prem4 = even split between on-prem / public cloud7 = exclusively public cloud

• Pie chart is combination of 1,993 application responses.

• Top domain for cloud affinity:business analytics

• Analysis by individual application available


Processor Architectures

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Intel x86 CPUs

AMD x86 CPUs

Arm CPUs

Nvidia GPUs

AMD GPUs

FPGAs

5: Extremely well 4 3 2 1: Very poorly

How well do your scientific research applications scaleand perform on each of the following architectures?

Don’t know

22%

49%

84%

60%

78%

81%

Available for all 11 application domains


Current AI Engagement

Most common ML frameworks: 1. Theano2. Scikit-Learn3. Spark-Mlib

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

We have integrated AI/ML into our HPCapplications for steering or simulation

optimization

We use ML for pre- or post-processing of HPCapplications

AI/ML are separate from our HPC initiativesand applications

Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree


2022 Winter Classic InvitationalStudent Cluster Competition

• Outreach to HBCUs and other minority-serving institutions

• Opportunities for sponsorship and mentorship

• Information coming at winterclassicinvitational.com, or email [email protected]

Student ClusterCompetition


Why This HPC Competition?

• Talent development and building a new talent pool in HPC is perennial problem• Increasing the diversity in our

talent pool is also a problem• This competition is an opportunity

to help solve these problemsStudent Cluster

Competition


Special Competition Emphasis• Historically black and Hispanic college/university

outreach, plus female universities

• Actively recruiting teams from these institutions• Schools are enthusiastic about the opportunity to compete• Life changer for these students• Will add much more diversity to high-tech industry

• Sponsors and mentoring organizations are encouraged to recruit for internships and full-time positions


Winter Classic: Quick Summary• University student teams build, tune, and optimize a mentor provided virtual HPC cluster• No cost to the participating universities• The students race the systems while running a number of tasks• LINPACK, HPCG benchmarks• Real-world scientific applications – selected by the mentors • The fastest system with correct answers wins – scored by the mentors

• 2021 competition featured 10 HBCU/HSI teams representing nine universities


Winter Classic: Student Benefits

• At the end of the competition, students will be able to say that they know how to run, characterize, and optimize real HPC applications on a real HPC cluster.

• These real-world skills are highly valuable and marketable.

• We will do all we can to help them join the HPC community as either interns or full-time employees.

• Intersect360 Research will provide $10,000 in Brueckner Award scholarships.

• The winning university will be rewarded with a “Winter Classic HPC Jumpstart” grant of at least $10,000 worth of HPC equipment and/or services.

• Fun! We’re arranging for vendors to provide meal nights and gift baskets for each team.


Questions? How to Sign Up

• Opportunities to sponsor and mentor• www.winterclassicinvitational.com• Dan Olds• [email protected]• Office: (503) 372-9389• Mobile: (503) 730-5072

Student ClusterCompetition

http://www.winterclassicinvitational.com/



SC21

• SC21 kickoff reception• Monday, November 15, 3:00 – 5:00 p.m. CT• BLT's - Breakfast, Lunch and Tacos• 626 North 6th Street, one block south of SC21

• Listen to our podcasts• This Week in HPC• RadioFreeHPC

• Dell HPC Community meeting, with HPCwire, December 8, dellhpc.org


Working with Intersect360 Research

• Sign up for our newsletters, answer surveys, stay abreast of research:https://www.intersect360.com• Listen to our podcasts, This Week in HPC and RadioFreeHPC,

distributed by HPCwire:• https://soundcloud.com/this-week-in-hpc• https://radiofreehpc.com/• https://www.intersect360.com/podcasts

• Becoming a client:• Individual reports available at: https://www.intersect360.com• Full list of services: https://www.intersect360.com/reports/how-to-work-with-us/• To subscribe to our HPC market advisory service, email [email protected]

https://www.intersect360.com/newsletter-signup-form

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https://www.intersect360.com/podcasts

https://www.intersect360.com/2020-research

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SC21 HPC Market UpdateNovember 2021

Addison Snell, CEO, [email protected]

Dan Olds, Chief Research Officer, [email protected]

Thank you: Q&A



sc21 hpc market update

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