scenic hudson sea level rise mapper - part 1
DESCRIPTION
Jason Winner, Conservation GIS Manager for Scenic Hudson presents on the new Sea Level Rise Mapper. The mapper is a tool for communities and stakeholders to use to create visualizations of future scenarios of sea level rise. With these maps and information, Scenic Hudson is supporting communities' efforts to develop adaptation plans by helping them to: - create maps of the extent and impacts of inundation and flood zone expansion - understand the locations of key built and natural resources - create graphics that illustrate different sea level rise scenarios in specific communities or stretches of the river - estimate the risks to infrastructure and natural resources and the likelihoods of different inundation events - develop alternative adaptation scenarios and weigh their cost and benefits with respect to built infrastructure and natural resources ** The Sea Level Rise Mapper can be found on Scenic Hudson's website at: http://www.scenichudson.org/slr/mapper For more information, contact Jason Winner at Scenic Hudson at (845) 473-4440 ext 223, or [email protected]TRANSCRIPT
A Roadmap forSea Level Rise:
Vulnerability and Adaptation along the Hudson River Estuary
Jason Winner, ConservationGIS Manager
Mark Wildonger, Planner
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Overview
•Introduction•Sea Level Rise Problem•Roadmap – Planning for Resilience•Sea Level Rise Modeling and Mapping•Breakout Groups•Conclusions and Next Steps
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Introduction
Theme:Sea Level Rise is “Scary”
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Introduction
Theme:Sea Level Rise
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
requires Planning
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Introduction
Introduction
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Hudson River Sea Level Rise Project Goals:• Map future inundation zones at a resolution high enough to support parcel-based decisions• Identify important at-risk resources and their levels of vulnerability• Engage stakeholders with strategies for preser- vation, restoration, and/or shoreline protection• Identify decision support tools available to create a roadmap for adaptation and resilience
Climate-Related Impacts1) Climate Change2) Storm Surge3) Sea Level Rise
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge are Additive!
This Project is about Sea Level Rise Only
Introduction
Relative sea level change is caused by thecombined effects of global sea levelvariations (due to climate change) and localvertical land movement. When sea level rises, it amplifies all types of coastal inundation and associated impacts.-NOAA Coastal Services Center
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Introduction
1) Current Conditions2) Sea Level Rise Data, Science, and Projections3) Local Assets at Risk
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Problem
source: NASA A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Problem - Sandy
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Problem - Sandy
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Problem - Sandy
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Problem
Local Sea Levelis more than
1’ higher than 100 years ago
Rate of rise is accelerating
Sea Level Rise Data and Science
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Source: NOAA
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Data and Science
Sea Level Rise Projections:
2020a 2050a 2080a 2100b Central Range: 1-5” 5-12” 8-23” 11-26” Rapid Ice Melt: 4-10” 19-29” 41-55” 52-72”
a) From the NYS Sea Level Rise Task Forceb) From the NYS 2100 Commission Report
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Projections
•Up to 72” of Sea Level Rise by 2100!•Local Rate is higher than global average
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Projections
• Increased coastal flooding• Loss of salt water marsh habitat• Salt water intrusion• De watering and bluff failure‐ (dropping lake levels)• Coastal erosion• Property loss• Threat to critical infrastructure
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Additional Impacts
What’s at Stake?
• 78 Riverfront Communities• $ Billions of Public & Private Infrastructure• Historic & Cultural Centers
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Local Assets at Risk
• 160+ miles of Estuarine River• Rich Turtle, Salamander, and Fish Populations• Globally Rare Freshwater Tidal Habitats• Thousands of acres of Tidal Wetlands and Vegetated Shallows
What’s at Stake?A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Local Assets at Risk
Sea Level Rise Data
source: Climate Central 2100
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Sea L
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ise
Sto
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Sea Level Rise Adaptation Roadmap
Community-based Vulnerability Assessment:1) Getting Started2) Hazards and Climate3) People and Communities4) Built Environment5) Natural Resources6) Risk-wise Strategies
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Source: NOAA Coastal Services Center
Sea Level Rise Adaptation Roadmap
Getting Started:a) Define objectivesb) Explore problemsc) Engage stakeholdersd) Identify policies to informe) Consider resources
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Adaptation Roadmap
Hazards and Climate:a) Characterize hazardsb) Map hazard areasc) Capture local knowledged) Incorporate scientific
data
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Adaptation Roadmap
People and Communities:a) Social vulnerabilityb) Community resiliencec) Trends
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Adaptation Roadmap
Built Environment:a) Assess all infrastructureb) Physical characteristicsc) Policy impactsd) Infrastructure exposure
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Adaptation Roadmap
Natural Resources:a) Protective servicesb) Additional benefitsc) Potential stressorsd) Policy impacts
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Adaptation Roadmap
Risk-Wise Strategies:a) Integrate hazard mitiga-
tion & community plansb) Use existing programs to
implement adaptation projects
c) Document predicted future conditions
d) Use external drivers as leverage
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
1) Local Data 2) Inundation and Coastal Flood modeling3) Resources at Risk4) Sea Level Rise Mapper
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Modeling and Mapping
Source: NOAA Digital Coast, www.csc.noaa.gov/slr/viewer
Sea Level Rise Mapping & Analysis
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Source: The Nature Conservancy, www.coastalresilience.org
Sea Level Rise Mapping & Analysis
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Mapping - Data
Elevation Data• LiDAR data• High resolution (1m)• Accurate depiction of water elevations• National Elevation Dataset (NED) 1/3 arc second (10m resolution)• Poor resolution• Hydroflattened
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Mapping - Data
Digital Elevation Models:10m National Elevation Dataset (NED) vs 1m LiDAR
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
10m NED 1m LiDAR
“Sea Level” Tidal Data
Mean sea level is not consistent
New
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Dam Hudson
RiverElevations
Tide Gauge
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Mean
What is “Mean Sea Level” • Mean Higher High Water (MHHW)• Mean High Water (MHW)• Mean Sea Level = average height of the water surface over time• Mean Low Water (MLW)• Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW)
Tidal Data
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Tidal DataSource: NOAA
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A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Hudson River Estuary
Local TideGaugesMHHW
LocalTideGauge
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Hudson River Estuary
Sea Level Rise Modeling• Bathtub model uses flat surface • Modified bathtub model uses real river elevations incorporates datum information
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Hudson River Estuary
Elev
ation
Elev
ation
BathtubModel
ModifiedBathtubModel
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Add Sea Level Rise
Projections Central Range: 2020: 1-5” 2050: 5-12” 2080: 8-23”
2100: 11-26”Rapid Ice Melt:
2020: 4-10” 2050: 19-29” 2080: 41-55” 2100: 52-72”
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Add Sea Level Rise
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Add Sea Level Rise
MHHW surface↓
Subtract LiDAR↓
Reclassify↓
New MHHW extents
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Add Sea Level Rise
MHHW Datum River
LiDAR Surface
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Add Sea Level Rise
MHHW + 36”
River
LiDAR Surface
MHHW Datum
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Add Sea Level Rise
MHHW
LiDAR
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
New
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psieTroy
Dam
Tide Gauge