semantic illegal content hunter › files › finalconference › sich_final... · 2015-12-03 ·...

Co-funded by the Prevention of and Fight against Crime Programme of the European Union

CONFERENZA FINALE

PROGETTO SICH Semantic Illegal Content Hunter

Zero marginal cost crime

Gianluigi Me, Luiss, SICH Advisory Board Roma, 20 Novembre 2015


Drugs on anonymous networks

Further threats (only few)

Conclusions

Agenda




Conclusions

Agenda



Intro • Cybercrime: Spam, Phishing, Carding,

Malware/Badware, Botnets, Child pornograhy, Copyright infringment etc…

• This attacks today may involve a dozen different parties each responsible for some particular piece of the operation (CaaS).

• This is possible because a shared marketplace allows for economies of scale and encourages specialization and competition (and hence efficiency).

• a criminal entrepreneur can outsource these parts of business and combine them in innovative ways to support new value creation strategies

• Commodization


Intro • Profit centers: victims/customers transfer new

capital into the underground. E.g.:

• in Credit Card theft, ATM withdrawl scam provides an estimated revenue of $45Mln in one day

• In Spamvertised products, Luxury knock-offs provide an estimated revenue of $68Mln in 2013-2014

• In Clickfraud, Zero Access provides an estimated revenue of 36$ Mln (2013), in Scareware, Cryptolocker $3Mln (2013-2014)


Intro • Support Centers: value chain rings (CaaS), criminal activities.

E.g.:

• Compromised hosts

• 1 Pay per install: (US/UK) $100/$180

• 1 Pay per install: (Europe) $20/$160

• Human services

• CAPTCHA $1-$2

• SMS challenge $200

• Networking and hosting

• DDoS:800 Mbps 10$ per 1 month

• DDoS:100 Gbps 200$ per 1 month

• Accounts & Engagement

• Facebook PVA $80-400$

• Google PVA $80/500

• Twitter account $1-$20


Intro • Marketplaces role is to mitigate risks:

• abolishing physical interactions between transacting parties

• providing superior anonymity guarantees compared to the alternatives

• Escrow system to prevent financial risk

• providing a feedback system to enforce quality control of the goods being sold


Cryptomarket

62% 10% 0%

4%

5%

2% 1% 11%

1%

4%

MKT sharing

Drugs

Digital

Bitcoin

Accounts

Money

Software

Misc

eBooks

Services

Others


NPS-trade TOR Forum joining (or Marketplace selection)

I2P communication (frequent in chemist/guinea pig relationship)


Nucleus market Quantity Price

Price/grams

1g USD99.00 USD 99,00

2g USD189.00 USD 94,50

3.5g USD308.00 USD 88,00

5g USD410.00 USD 82,00

7g USD536.00 USD 76,57

10g USD720.00 USD 72,00

14g USD942.00 USD 67,29

20g USD1265.00 USD 63,25

28g USD1660.00 USD 59,29

56g USD3105.00 USD 55,45

112g USD5876.00 USD 52,46

250g USD12375.00 USD 49,50

500g USD23265.00 USD 46,53

1kg USD43560.00 USD 43,56

2kg USD83160.00 USD 41,58

5kg (USA ONLY) USD198000.00 USD 39,60

10kg (USA ONLY) USD376,200.00 USD 37,62


Dream Market shipping from Europe

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Shipping from europe

Shipping from europe


Comparing issues between dark net & alt source The Global Drug Survey 2015 findings


How darknet markets affected the range of consumed drugs The Global Drug Survey 2015 findings


Which drugs were bought through dark net The Global Drug Survey 2015 findings

Again, the long tail says more…

The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More




Conclusions

Agenda


Evolution of Cyberattacks Today-botnets (18/11/2015)


one (of many) «new» goods

• Additive Manufacturing

• A specific photo-polymer (resin) is selectively cured

by a laser beam, layer by layer, in order to reproduce

the shape of the desired object. Now, metals,

ceramic, polymeric components

• Stereolithography aims to get, in a very short time

and without specific tooling, a physical

representation of a 3D CAD model in order to speed

up a new product development process


one (of many) «new» goods

.22-caliber pistol, formed from a 3D-printed AR-15 (M16) lower receiver, and a normal, commercial upper. The main body of the gun is plastic, while the chamber — where the bullets are actually struck — is solid metal. Cost:10-30$

Try Liberator.zip ! Or many others




Conclusions

Agenda

Conclusions


Remarks

• TOR’s impact is not negligible in consumer’s habits

• It seems that TOR enables long tail revenues as the web in many other legal markets (books, ads etc) (Research issue)

• If so, many applicable internet economics theories & findings could better depict/predict the evolution of this market

• What else in TOR?


Criminal Business Model

• CaaS-Crime as a Service

• Affiliate Program Marketplaces/risk mitigators

• Profit Centers/Support Centers

• Commodization of drugs: or novel long tail?

• zero marginal cost contaminates crime, anonymous networks ease the supply/demand match


Ruling laws

Code is law (L. Lessig)

The Law of churn (e.g., 3D printing, self driven cars, IOE and Critical infrastructure)

Externality and the `Tragedy of the Commons‘

Different legal frameworks enable illegal trade of goods (Budapest Convention adoption is not worldwide adopted!)


Research directions Prevention, not reaction (boiled frog!)

Anonymous networks reinforces the need of adaptive methodologies/techniques/technologies to detect crime-domain content (Research directions)

New criminal opportunities need new economical, technological and criminological research

Leverage on precision rather than recall


Contact

Grazie

Gianluigi Me

[email protected]

http://www.expertsystem.net/rss-feed

https://twitter.com/Expert_System

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.expertsystem.net/blog/


Q&A

semantic illegal content hunter › files › finalconference › sich_final... · 2015-12-03 ·...

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