Dealing with London's growth from a transport perspective

Michèle Dix: Managing Director, TfL Planning

15th March 2010

Shaping London – integrated strategy development

Transport Economic developmentSpatial planning

Strategic Overview

3

Development of the Mayor’s Transport Strategy (MTS)

London’s population is growing

Distribution of London’s population growth by 2031

By 2031, London’s population is expected to have grown by a further 1.3 million

Employment growth

3500

3750

4000

4250

4500

4750

5000

5250

5500

Tota

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ds)

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EBS

OEF

GLAE

LP 2008

Distribution of London’s employment growth by 2031

A further 750,000 jobs are forecast

27 million trips per day are forecast by 2031

Investing for Recovery – a new deal for London

Key findings and recommendations:

• London is the most productive UK region (2007/8 tax export was £14-19bn)

• 31% of the capital’s jobs are found in just 2% of its land area (in CAZ/West End) – demonstrating the need of ensuring excellent radial links (through Crossrail, Tube and National Rail).

• Government needs to ensure future of Crossrail and Tube investments for sake of London’s economic health

• London risks losing £1billion a year in productivity if these investments are delayed

• Efficient regional government, committed to making further savings

• Investments are also vital to addressing economic and social disparities

London depends on excellent transport connectivity

• Air and rail hub : 75% of all rail journeys start or end in London and the South East

• London Heathrow – world’s busiest airport 67 million passengers per annum

• Rail and road connections to UK and continental Europe

• Freight connections remain vital

• Port access (Thamesport, Felixstowe, Dover, South Coast and Port of London)

Mayor’s Transport Strategy Goals

Increased trips (from 2008 base):30% Public Transport 15% total

Current travel demand in London

Mode share

Mode Share

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‘London’s transport system should excel among those of global cities, providing access toopportunities for all its people and enterprises, achieving the highest environmental standardsand leading the world in its approach to tackling urban transport challenges of the 21st century.’

Mode share

Draft MTS seeks an increase in the mode share of walking, cycling and public transport

13

Highway congestion

2006Currently, congestion is mostly found in central and inner London, and some town centres.

With only reference case investment (Tube upgrades, Crossrail, Thameslink and HLOS), it can be seen that congestion is widespread in central and Inner London, and extends to Outer London town centres and large areas of south London

2031 (Reference

case)

Reasons for increased congestion: •Reduced resilience•Ageing assets and continuing utilities works•Population and employment growth•Increase in road freight

LU crowding 2006

Currently, there is severe crowding on routes into central London

National Rail Crowding 2006

• There Is crowding on all radial national rail lines into central London in the morning peak.

• North London Line also crowded

Shortfalls between committed investments and future requirements

2031 Highway congestion reference case

2031 Tube crowding reference case

5.3 – 4.6

Managing demand for transport

More transport capacity

Better coordination and integration of planning

Policy approach

Enhancements to London’s transport infrastructure

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This figure sets out funded and unfunded improvements featured in the strategy

Integration of development and transport

Integration of development and transport

Local and strategic development control processes should seek to ensure a number of conditions are satisfied, including:

•High trip generating developments to be located in areas of high public transport accessibility, connectivity and capacity

•The design and layout of sites maximise access on foot, cycle and to public transport facilities

•Maximum opportunities for sustainable freight distribution where possible

•Land for transport use is safeguarded in line with London Plan policy and Supplementary Planning Guidance

•Planning contributions are sought for transport improvements, where appropriate

Case Study – Canary Wharf

1981 : only 3,000 workers remain in the Docklands area

1987 : Docklands Light Railway opens, by 1995 working pop. approx. 13,000

1999 : Jubilee Line Extension opens, by 2006 working pop. reaches 93,000 – densities provide demand for JLE

Crossrail set to open 2017, enabling further schemes such as Wood Wharf working pop. to reach close to 200,000

Canary Wharf 1987-2020

1981 : only 3,000 workers remain in the Docklands area

1987 : Docklands Light Railway opens, by 1995 working pop. approx.13,000

1999 : Jubilee Line Extension opens, by 2006 working pop.reaches 93,000

2017: Crossrail set to open, enabling further schemes such as Wood Wharf working pop. to reach close to 200,000

Case Study – Vauxhall Nine Elms

Northern Line extension Battersea Power Station

Regeneration

• Maximising impact of existing/new infrastructure

• Improving links to new rail nodes and interchanges from the surrounding area

• Maximising legacy benefits of the Olympics

• Coordinated planning between TfL, HCA and others re. new development

Proposals to enhance London’s transport system

Proposals to enhance London’s transport system

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TfL and DfT investment plans 2017-31

+ =

Committed investments

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TfL Business Plan 2009/10-2017/8 overview:

• Crossrail

• DLR enhancements

• Transforming the Tube programme

• London Overground network extensions, frequency improvements

• Improved interchanges

• Highways schemes on Transport for London Road Network –e.g. Tottenham Hale gyratory removal

• Cycle Hire and Superhighways

• Funding for local borough schemes

• Road safety, community safety and maintenance

Committed TfL Business Plan investments to 2017/8 - overview

Transforming the Tube

Key deliverables to increase capacity, reliability and reduce journey times:

• Over 230 new train sets:53 – Circle and Hammersmith and City80 – District Line58 – Metropolitan Line47 – Victoria Line

• Upgraded signalling and new control centres for most lines by 2016

• Station improvements – 131 completed so far!

• By 2020, the Tube will have an extra 30 per cent capacity and quicker journeys

Longer term proposals

• Further improvements and extensions to the network Northern line Upgrade 2

• Extension of the Northern line to Battersea• Potential southern extension to the Bakerloo line

will be reviewed further

Crossrail

•Brings up to £36bn (estimated) of benefits to the wider UK economy (over 60 years) through reduced

•journey times, job growth and increased productivity benefits – more than twice the estimated cost of £15.9bn.

•Connects Docklands, the City, West End, and West London with key regeneration areas

•Europe’s biggest civil engineering project with new tunnelling, new interchanges and upgrades to existing lines and stations

•Up to 14,000 people will be employed on the project at the peak of construction between 2013 and 2015.

Docklands Light Railway

• Since 1987 the DLR has opened up the docklands and east London

• Demand for DLR is forecast to grow from 68 million to 83 million trips per annum by 2012.

• 55 new carriages, expanding to three car operations, will give a 50% capacity increase by June 2010.

• Extension to Stratford International -remains on target for July 2010.

• Woolwich Arsenal extension opened early 2009 - delivered on time and within budget, whilst providing a direct link to city airport

Orbital connectivity: strategic interchanges

Upgrade II

33%Upgrade II

17%

BakerlooWaterloo NB

57%

VictoriaHighbury & Islington SB

21%

BakerlooMaida Vale SB

57%

London Underground Capacity Increases Estimates of increased capacity at specific locations on the network

VictoriaVauxhall NB

21%

NorthernCity branch

Kennington NB

20%

NorthernCharing Cross branch

Kennington NB

20%

Upgrade II

17%

NorthernCharing Cross & City branches

Euston SB

20%

JubileeSt. John’s Wood EB

25%

JubileeLondon Bridge WB

43%

PiccadillyKing’s Cross WB

24%

Hammersmith & City Hammersmith EB

176%

MetropolitanFinchley Road EB

32%

Hammersmith & CityLiverpool Street WB

38%

MetropolitanLiverpool Street WB

19%

DistrictTower Hill WB

22%

PiccadillyBarons Court EB

24%

DistrictEarl’s Court EB

26%

CircleGloucester Road EB

38%

CircleTower Hill WB

38%

Waterloo & CityWaterloo-Bank

25%

These figures estimate the peak capacity increase at certain points on each line compared to the service in 2005/06, and reflect the capability delivered by the upgrades and current service patterns assumptions

National Rail, Crossrail, Thameslink, Overground, DLR and Tramlink

• Crossrail

• London and the South East rail links and services, including Thameslink – large increases in cross-London capacity (~20 tph through the core)

Longer term proposals:

• Mayor supports High Speed 2 (HS2)

• Chelsea-Hackney line/Crossrail 2

• Station capacity enhancements

Committed National Rail investments to 2014 - overview

Managing the road network

• Smoothing traffic flow, including investment in intelligent traffic control systems (such as ‘SCOOT’)

• Minimising the impact of planned interventions on the road network, including lane rental charges

• Minimising disruption from unplanned events

• Technology development

• Maintaining road network assets for safety and efficiency

• Development of the road network – East Thames river crossings

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Providing new links to support development: East Thames river crossings

Freight

Freight traffic predicted to grow as London’s population and economic activity increase.

Predicted 30% rise in Light Goods Vehicles

Working with industry through:

•Freight Operator Recognition Scheme (FORS)

•Delivery and Servicing Plans

•Construction Logistics Plans

Modal shift to rail, water and bicycle through provision of infrastructure

Mayoral leadership (e.g. Responsible procurement)

Promotion of cleaner vehicles

London’s airports

•Airport capacity – the Mayor recognises adequate airport runway capacity is critical to the competitive position of London, but opposes any further increases in capacity at Heathrow.

•MTS seeks to improve access to London’s airports for passengers and staff by public transport.

•Improved freight access to the airport (e.g. promotion of DSPs)

•Air Quality proposals

•Noise reduction proposals

Managing demand

Walking, cycling and public transport use road space more efficiently

Improved information for passengers

Better Streets: Practical Steps

Measures to improve the street environment will help regenerate areas and make walking and cycling more attractive alternative so encouraging healthier lifestyles

Outcomes

Outcomes (overview)

•Public transport capacity and connectivity improvements

•Less crowding

•Less congestion

•Reduced Carbon Dioxide emissions from transport

•Improved air quality

•Fewer KSI road casualties

•Improved accessibility to jobs

•Improved accessibility of the transport network

But if we want to achieve more, we have to think differently about influencing people’s behaviour.

Underground crowding (2031 with MTS)

• Crowding largely alleviated, however, forecasts suggest it persists on Piccadilly and Victoria lines.

• Current route of Chelsea-Hackney line (Crossrail 2) as modelled doesn’t effectively address this crowding.

• Other options may provide greater crowding relief

NR Crowding (2031 with MTS)With MTS proposals, crowding persists on a some corridors,Major congestion relief is provided on southern approaches to central London, and the West Anglia lines.

Benefits from implementing measures beyond those in the TfL Business Plan and HLOS

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Improved accessibility to employment

Accessibility:

MTS proposes an increase of more than 50% in the average number of jobs that a London resident can reach within 45 minutes minimum public transport journey time

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Improved accessibility to employment

Additional journey time is often required in order to take physically accessible routes. From most areas journeys to central London take up to an hour longer.

The figure shows the public transport journey relative time differential to/from Bank by accessible route, in comparison to quickest route.

Ensuring the transport system is accessible from the start to the end of the journey will enable more ‘spontaneous’ travel, delivering social and economic benefits – widening the labour pool and enhancing economic independence.

Costs and funding

Costs:

Proposals will require an estimated capital investment of between £3.5 and £4.5 billion per annum, comparable to current expenditure.

Funding sources:

A variety of funding sources are identified:

• Government grant direct to TfL

• Revenue from fares and other sources

• Secondary income (e.g. advertising)

• TfL 'prudential borrowing' against future revenue

• Asset financing and property disposal receipts

• Other forms of Government grant to parts of the transport network not controlled by TfL, e.g. HLOS process, borough highway maintenance

• Contributions from the private sector, e.g. developer funding for associated transport investments

• Direct borough funding

•Other Government funding sources, including specific allocations to support regeneration, health and education and other areas

Further information online

TfL overview:http://www.tfl.gov.uk/

‘Shaping London’ website:http://london.gov.uk/shaping-london -MTS, London Plan and Economic Development Strategy (and impact assessments)

Travel in London Report (statistical information)http://www.tfl.gov.uk/assets/downloads/corporate/Travel-in-London-report-1.pdf

TfL Business Plan 2009/10-2017/18 http://www.tfl.gov.uk/assets/downloads/corporate/tfl-business-plan-2009.pdf

Annexe

Underground crowding (2031 reference case)

•Reference case, with committed TfL Business Plan investments•Crowding persists and intensifies, particularly on the NE-SW corridor (served by Piccadilly, Victoria and District lines).•All routes into the City are crowded, including Northern Line

National Rail Crowding (2031 reference case)

•Reference case incorporates Thameslink, East London Line extension and Crossrail

•Some relief provided, however significant amounts of crowding remain on some of the most intensively-used corridors

•West Anglia lines severely crowded.

MTS proposals

Rail (National Rail, Crossrail, Thameslink, Overgound): orbital connectivity improvements, more capacity on radial routes, support for HS2, station investment

London’s bus network: Service quality; Fleet development

Managing the road network: Measures to reduce disruption from road works, improved traffic management (Smoothing traffic flow)

Taxis, private hire, coaches and community transport: support for vital services and improvements to taxi/PHV safety and environmental impact

Blue Ribbon Network: Greater use of the Thames for passengers and Freight

Cycling: Superhighways; Cycle Hire scheme

Walking: Public realm improvements

River Crossings: Investigate options for new crossings in London

MTS proposals

A more accessible transport system: Improving links to new rail nodes and interchanges from their surrounding areas

Integrating London’s transport system and services: Strategic interchanges; improved information

London’s airports: Improved public transport access; opposition to Heathrow expansion

Improving public transport safety: Ensuring high standards of operational safety are maintained

Improving road safety: Support for Intelligent Speed Adaptation, driver education and enforcement

Reducing crime, fear of crime and anti-social behaviour: Designing out crime, improved deployment of policing resources

'Better streets‘ :Town centre pedestrian access improvements

Improving noise impacts: Quieter, well maintained infrastructure, review of London Lorry Control Scheme

MTS proposals

Improving air quality: Cleaner public, private and freight fleet, LEZ enhancements

Reducing carbon dioxide emissions: Promoting behavioural change, support for electric vehicles, smoothing traffic flow

Adapting to climate change: Infrastructure location/ construction and vehicle design

Better journey planning and smarter travel for people and goods: Improved electronic journey planning tools, Delivery and Servicing Plans for freight

Fares and ticketing: Promote new technology, support Oyster on National Rail network

Parking and loading: Fair and consistent enforcement, differential pricing

Road user charging for economic and environmental aims: Potential Western Extension Zone removal, longer term pricing incentives if other policy interventions do not achieve the Strategy’s goals

London Cycle Hire Scheme

•Launches Summer 2010•Available 24 hours a day•400 docking stations, spaced approximately every 300 metres

•10,200 docking spaces at the docking stations. •Each docking station will come with a map

Western Extension Zone and Low Emission zone consultations

Retention of central London Congestion Charge

Proposal to remove WEZ

•If, following consultation, the Mayor is still minded to remove the WEZ, there would need to be a further statutory consultation on a change to the scheme

•WEZ could be removed in 2010 - mitigation measures for adverse traffic and air quality impacts would be put in place.

Low Emission Zone

•The Mayor is proposing deferring the implementation of LEZ Phase 3 from October 2010 until an appropriate point in 2012