shipston-on-stour web view1.1.2 the housing topic group comprised the following individuals: ed...

Shipston-on- Stour Neighbourhood Plan

Housing Audit and Issues Report

The Housing Topic Group

May 2015

Contents

1. Background Page 2

2. Methodology Page 4

3. Audit findings Page 5

4. Development scenarios and implications Page 20

5. Matters for other topic groups Page 21

Annex 1 The Neighbourhood Plan area Page 24

Annex 2 Past housing construction in Shipston Page 25

Annex 3 Location of affordable housing built or permitted since 2011 Page 26

Annex 4 Location of housing developments built or permitted since 2011 Page 27

Version 3 1 25 May 2015

1 Background

1.1 Scope and purpose of the audit

1.1.1 This document summarises the up-to-date position regarding housing as at May 2015 in the designated area for the Neighbourhood Plan. The confirmed facts are presented, with a commentary on the adequacy or otherwise in meeting the current and prospective development of the town. An overall conclusion is provided, and the key issues and opportunities to be considered per se and by the three other plan-making topic groups – economy, infrastructure and environment - are stated.

1.1.2 The Housing Topic Group comprised the following individuals: Ed Jackson, Helen Ashton and Phil Sykes. There was support from Martin Ferrier, the Shipston-on-Stour Town Council [STC] lead on sustainability and planning. Regular monthly meetings and a team workshop were held to agree the scope of the enquiries and collate the gathered information.

1.1.3 The authors have made a considerable and sincere effort to research and assess the facts. It may well be that some aspects of the town’s housing have been missed or not given enough attention. We apologise if this is so, and trust that those individuals and organisations who may wish to add or modify will do so in good part.

1.2 Producing a Neighbourhood Plan

1.2.1 The decision by STC to sponsor the preparation of a Neighbourhood Plan was made in November 2012. This followed in-depth soundings of the local community to gauge the appetite for such a project, whether substantial help would be volunteered, and what local people thought were important issues for the future of the town. A summary of this early stage of the plan-making process is in a comprehensive Scoping Report1 prepared for STC in November 2012. This document was the basis of a formal STC decision to proceed, starting with a submission to the Stratford-on-Avon District Council [SDC] for their authorisation to commence the project. That authorisation was given on 8 April 2013.

1.2.2 In May 2013, as part of the ongoing community engagement, notably at the yearly Wool Fair, STC sought community volunteers to form an independent project team to take forward the work. The proposed plan-making process utilised the publications from Locality2, one of the national advisors hired by the Department for Communities and Local Government [DCLG] to promote interest and provide ongoing support. Assistance from Locality had been secured for the launch of the process, and this continued through 2013/4. It was decided to sub-divide the plan-making work into four categories: economy; housing; environment; and infrastructure. Volunteers were appointed to these topic groups. Their initial task was to research and collate the important information such that the main issues were properly understood. When the facts and implications were known there would be discussion within and between the topic groups, and the resulting ‘evidence’ would be taken forward into emerging options for the future of the town. It should be noted that from the outset, through the community engagement mentioned in section 1.2.1, a number of key concerns had been identified, refer to the Scoping Report Section 4.3. These included a) whether or not significant additional housing is a good thing; and b) meeting local affordable housing needs.

1 ‘Producing a Neighbourhood Plan Scoping Report’, issued by STC November 2012 2 ‘Neighbourhood Plans Roadmap Guide’ , Locality, 2012


1.2.3 This feedback gave some focus to the work of the housing topic group. The recognised overall thinking was that rapid housing growth in the past had resulted in some shortcomings in terms of physical and social infrastructure to meet current needs. Further growth of the population was in prospect, with more housing already on the way. The challenge was to create the right amount, types and tenures of housing, particularly affordable housing, to meet local needs.

1.3 Planning policy context

1.3.1 A Neighbourhood Plan is a community-led framework for guiding the development, regeneration and conservation of an area. It will likely contain a vision, aims, planning policies, proposals for improving the area or providing new facilities, and possibly the allocation of key sites for specific types of development. The Neighbourhood Plan will include ‘site allocations’ further to a decision taken in July 2014 in conjunction with SDC. It may deal with a wide range of social, economic and environmental issues or may focus on a few pertinent matters. As described the Shipston-on-Stour plan is looking across a wide range of issues, as guided by the launch-stage community engagement. When completed and adopted such a plan will be part of the statutory development plan for the area. This statutory status provides far more weight when planning decisions are made than do other informal local documents such as parish plans and village/town design statements.

1.3.2 A Neighbourhood Plan must comply with European and national legislation, and must have appropriate regards to national policy and be in general conformity with existing strategic local planning policy. It should be noted that at the time of writing this report the examination-in-public of the SDC submitted Core Strategy3 had taken place, SDC had published a summary of prospective changes4, and the examination’s Inspector had published his Interim Report5 recommending that further work be undertaken by SDC particularly with respect to the housing elements of the Core Strategy. Following the completion of this additional work and the necessary public consultation on it, the Inspector will re-open the examination-in-public and subsequently issue his Final Report. After any final modifications are agreed the Core Strategy will be adopted. It will then set the top-down policy and proposals agenda. Importantly a Neighbourhood Plan should not promote less development than that identified in the local development plan. It can allow greater growth levels. It can, importantly, specify policies and guidance on how new development should be designed and located. Given the potential scope of such a plan the importance of getting the right amounts, types and locations of housing is self-evident.

1.3.3 Paragraph 6.6.21 of the submitted Core Strategy states for Shipston that, “taking into account the number of dwellings built and granted planning permission since 2011, about 235 homes, plus windfall development6, are to be provided in the town over the plan period” (2011-2031). However, in the course of the examination-in-public SDC submitted proposed modifications to the Core Strategy7 which increased the specific allocation for Shipston from 235 to 303 homes (reflecting an updated total of the number of houses already built or granted planning permission in the town between 2011 and December 2014). In addition it was stated that Shipston will need to

3 ‘Proposed Submission Core Strategy’, SDC, submitted to Secretary of State 30 September 20144 ‘Consolidated Hearing Modifications Volumes 1 & 2’, SDC, 27/29 January 2015 5 ‘Examination of the Stratford-On-Avon Core Strategy – Inspector’s Interim Conclusions’, 18 March 20156 House building on sites defined in the Core Strategy as “Sites which have not been specifically identified as

available in the Development Plan process. They normally comprise small, previously developed sites that have unexpectedly become available and are suitable for certain forms of redevelopment”.

7 ‘Housing Implementation Strategy’, SDC, 9 January 2015


accommodate a share, along with seven other ‘Main Rural Centres’8 in the District, of 687 further homes by 2031. 537 of these are intended to be on allocated sites (207 for construction between 2016 and 2021, 275 to be built 2021-2026 and 50 in the final five years of the plan period) and 150 on windfall sites (50 in each of those three five-year periods). Furthermore, SDC also agreed at the examination to allocate a number of ‘reserve sites’, for example to meet any shortfall which might arise in housing provision in adjacent local authority areas. It has suggested an additional 10% allocation for such reserve sites (which might amount to land for more than 1100 additional homes across the District, some of which would probably need to be in Shipston); the Inspector will consider whether this is an adequate scale of provision in his Final Report, which is not now expected until 2016.

1.3.4 In his Interim Report the Inspector concluded that “the Core Strategy is not sound as it stands”, particularly in respect of its housing proposals. It is almost certain that the additional work being undertaken by SDC will increase the number of new houses which need to be built in the District by 2031. The Inspector said has in his Interim Report that there is scope to increase the amount of new housing to be directed to the Main Rural Centres: they are “highly sustainable locations” with “a number of potential sites” for additional house building. Although we await the outcome of SDC’s additional work and the Inspector’s Final Report, it is therefore quite possible that Shipston’s allocation will be increased.

1.4 The plan area and setting

1.4.1 The designated Neighbourhood Plan area is the Parish of Shipston-on-Stour; see the map at Annex 1.

1.4.2 Without recounting some old history it should be appreciated that the literal Parish boundary is unusual, in that the eastern boundary is the River Stour, and the town is only on the west bank. There are on Brailes Road and Fell Mill Lane beyond the river a few nearby outlying houses, together with a small industrial estate and the local recycling and waste disposal facility. Functionally these are part of the town, though strictly they are outside the plan boundary.

1.4.3 Within the Parish boundary, apart from a very few isolated houses and farms, the town is enclosed by Hanson Hill and Waddon Hill to the west and by rising ground to the north, so that it sits comfortably in a bowl without spilling over the ridge line into the surrounding countryside. The cemetery screens recent housing development from view on the southern approach. Some modern industrial buildings break the skyline when approaching the town from the west on the Darlingscote Road, and permission has recently been granted on appeal for housing on the former IMI Norgren factory site on the Campden Road, which sits almost on the crest of the hill (but is well screened by a mature tree belt); otherwise the town is completely hidden from view from north, west and south (though it is visible across the river valley from the east).

2. Methodology

2.1 Guidance and precedents

2.1.1 The topic group has applied the guidance in the published Locality Roadmap Guide, in particular Worksheet 3 therein9 ‘Building the Evidence Base’. This gives sound advice on the need

8 Alcester, Bidford-on-Avon, Henley-in-Arden, Kineton, Southam, Studley, Wellesbourne 9 ‘Neighbourhood Planning Worksheet 5: Building the Evidence Base’, Locality, 2012


for a robust approach, and the sources of evidence. Of particular note has been the published evidence base supporting the emerging Core Strategy.

2.1.2 The National Planning Policy Framework10 paragraph 159 states that “Local planning authorities should have a clear understanding of housing needs in their area. They should: prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment to assess their full housing needs, working with

neighbouring authorities where housing market areas cross administrative boundaries. The Strategic Housing Market Assessment should identify the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures that the local population is likely to need over the plan period which:o meets household and population projections, taking account of migration and demographic

change;o addresses the need for all types of housing, including affordable housing and the needs of

different groups in the community (such as, but not limited to, families with children, older people, people with disabilities, service families and people wishing to build their own homes); and

o caters for housing demand and the scale of housing supply necessary to meet this demand; prepare a Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment to establish realistic assumptions about

the availability, suitability and the likely economic viability of land to meet the identified need for housing over the plan period.”

SDC has undertaken such a comprehensive analysis for the Core Strategy and the Neighbourhood Plan team has drawn heavily on this. However, the Core Strategy evidence relates largely to the whole of the District and so this material has been supplemented by census data and other information relating exclusively to Shipston Parish, including a specially commissioned Housing Needs Survey11. Discussions have also been held with local estate agents and housing developers.

2.1.3 The findings of fact were collated by Ed Jackson. A workshop session was held by the topic group to review the findings and identify key issues and matters that should be referred to other topic groups as there was shared interest.

3. Audit findings

3.1 Overview of Shipston’s past housing development

3.1.1 Although designated as a town for much of its existence, Shipston’s size throughout the 19 th and much of the 20th centuries was little more than that of a village. Though the mid-19th century population was nearly 2000, this dropped to as low as 1300 in the early 20th century and it was not until the mid-1960s that the population had grown again to that of the previous century. During the 1960s there were proposals to increase the size of the town to 10,000 but these plans were modified in the 1970s12 and after a bulge in house building and consequent population growth in the 1960s, the town has since grown at a slower, but still substantial rate (see Figure 1).

3.1.2 Shipston’s historic core is largely comprised of buildings from the late 17 th century and the Georgian period, with some slight expansion in the Victorian and Edwardian eras. It is only since the Second World War that there has been any large scale housing construction in the town. This more recent development has been fairly typical of late 20th century and early 21st century housing estates. It has taken the form of gradual expansion outwards from the historic core along with the subdivision of large garden plots and small scale redevelopment of earlier housing areas.

10 ‘National Planning Policy Framework’, Department for Communities and Local Government, March 201211 ‘Shipston-on-Stour Housing Needs Survey’, Warwickshire Rural Community Council, January 201412 ‘Shipston-on-Stour Conservation Report’, Stratford District Council, October 1992


3.1.3 The 1960s were characterised by the large scale Local Authority development around Queens Avenue, the beginning of the substantial southward expansion of the built up area in Calloways Road and the roads leading from it, and the redevelopment of Mayo’s timber yard east of the former railway station. The 1970s saw the first phases of the large Hanson Avenue / Banister Way / Furze Hill Road estate, construction of which continued well into the 1980s, when The Driftway and adjoining roads were also built. The southward extension of the town continued in the 1990s with the Hawthorn Way estate and more recently with Angela’s Meadow; whilst there was also a northwards expansion at River Way in the 1990s and since 2000 at the Railway Crescent estate, Hornsby Close and Caudlewell Drive. The map at Annex 2 illustrates these phases of housing development.

3.2 Population

3.2.1 The population of Shipston rose from 1585 in 1951 to 5038 in 2011, more than trebling over the 60 years (see Figure 1). The rate of growth has been more or less steady over that period, though with a slight bulge in the 1960s (see section 3.1.1 above). Over the period between 1981 and 2011 the population of the town grew by 64%: three times as fast as Stratford District as a whole, four times as fast as Warwickshire, and five times as fast as England & Wales (see Figure 2).

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 20110

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Population of Shipston-on-Stour Parish, 1951-2011

Population of Shipston-on-Stour Parish

Figure 1 (Source: Census data)

3.2.2 As a nation, the average age of the population is getting steadily older. This trend is reflected clearly in census data for Shipston. The proportion of the population which is of pension age has been higher – and rising faster – in Shipston than in the District, County and nationally (see Figure 3). This is partly because the existing population is living longer but also because the town has been attracting retired incomers. By 2011 well over a quarter of Shipston’s population were of pension age (50% higher than the national average) compared with a fifth in 1981. The average person in the parish is older than those elsewhere: the 2011 census recorded the median age13 of the population of Shipston as 48, compared with 46 in Stratford District, 41 in Warwickshire and 39 in England and Wales.

13 The median age of a population is that at which there are the same number of people older and younger than that age


1981 1991 2001 20110.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

Shipston-on-Stour Parish

Stratford-on-Avon District

Warwickshire

England and Wales

Percentage increase in population since 1981, by area


1981 1991 2001 20110.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Shipston Parish

Stratford District

Warwickshire

England & Wales

Percentage of population of pension age, 1981-2011, by area


3.2.3 At the same time, the percentage of the population aged under 16 has been lower – and falling faster – in Shipston than in the District, County and nationally. By 2011 fewer than one sixth of Shipston’s population was under 16 (16% lower than the national average) compared with between a fifth and a quarter in 1981 (see Figure 4). Despite this declining proportion of young people in the town, the actual number of under-16s has continued to grow, albeit fairly slowly, from just under 700 in 1981 to just over 800 in 2011. Their numbers are not increasing as fast as the rest of the population of the town, but we have still needed to provide more school places.


1981 1991 2001 20110.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Shipston ParishStratford DistrictWarwickshireEngland & Wales

Percentage of population aged under 16, 1981-2011, by area


3.2.4 What can we expect in the future? Changes in total population numbers in Shipston will depend to a large extent on the scale of future housing development (though see section 3.3 below). As for the future age structure, the latest official Government projections14 are available at District Council level, but not at the level of parishes like Shipston. They are based on recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration levels, applied to the current population, and take no account of future new housing developments. These projections suggest that the past trend, of those aged 65 and over increasing as a percentage of the population, will continue throughout the plan period (see Figure 5).

3.2.5 As in the past, this trend seems certain to apply to Shipston and this will have implications for medical services, transport and specialist housing needs right through the plan period into the 2030s. However, the projections seem to indicate that the past decline in the percentage of school and pre-school children in the population will be much less pronounced in the future (see Figure 6).

3.2.6 Quite how this might apply to Shipston is uncertain, but given the likely scale of housing development and the consequent increase in population in the town over at least the next 5 years, it seems likely that the demand for school places from local children will only continue to increase until at least the early 2020s.

14 ‘2012-based Subnational Population Projections’, Office for National Statistics, May 2014


2011 2016 2021 2026 20310.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

Stratford District

Warwickshire

England

2012-based Subnational Population Projections: percentage of population aged 65 and over, by area

Figure 5 (Source: 2011 Census + 2012-based Subnational Population Projections)

2011 2016 2021 2026 20310.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%

10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%20.00%

Stratford DistrictWarwickshire

England

2012-based Subnational Population Projections: percentage of population aged under 15, by area

Figure 6 (Source: 2011 Census + 2012-based Subnational Population Projections)

3.3 Households

3.3.1 In terms of the number of households (a rough proxy for the number of houses) Shipston has been the fastest growing settlement in Warwickshire over the past 30 years: the number of households increased by 106% between 1981 and 2011 (compared with 46% in Stratford District, 39% in Warwickshire and 32% in England & Wales) – see Figure 7.


1981 1991 2001 20110.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%


Percentage increase in number of households since 1981, by area


3.3.2 Average household size has fallen steadily in Shipston over the past 60 years (and faster than in the District, County and country as a whole – see Figures 8 and 9) as medical improvements have meant an ageing population and so fewer households containing children; more elderly widows and widowers; and fewer homes becoming vacant for newly-forming households to move into. At the same time, social trends have led to family fragmentation with more single parent families. On average there were 3½ people per household in Shipston in 1951, but only just over 2 in 2011, by which date a full one third of households in the town comprised just one person (a higher proportion than in Stratford District, Warwickshire as a whole and nationally), and over 18% of households comprised just one person aged 65 or older (half as high again as the level in Warwickshire as a whole and nationally) – see Figure 10.

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 20110.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

Average Household Size (persons per dwelling),Shipston-on-Stour Parish, 1951-2011

Average Household Size, Shipston-on-Stour Parish



1981 1991 2001 20110.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Shipston Parish

Stratford District

Warwickshire

England & Wales

Average household size (persons per dwelling) 1981-2011, by area


Shipston Parish Stratford District Warwickshire England & Wales0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

One person aged 65+

One person under 65

Lone parent + de-pendent children

2+ adults (with or without children)

Household structure, 2011

Figure 10 (Source: 2011nCensus)

3.3.3 The fall in average household size is set to continue in the future, and so even if the population of Shipston were to remain static in numerical terms, more houses would be required just to accommodate the same number of people.

3.4 Current housing stock

3.4.1 Numbers

3.4.1.1 The number of dwellings has only been recorded in the census since 1991 (before that it is necessary to use the number of households as a rough proxy). Because of declining average household size the rate of housebuilding in the town has been faster than the rate of growth in population (which increased by 30% between 1991 and 2011). The total number of homes in Shipston grew from 1737 in 1991 to 2405 in 2011 – an increase of 38½% (compared with a rise of around 25% in Stratford District, Warwickshire and the whole of England & Wales over the same period) – see Figure 11.


1991 2001 20110.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%


Percentage increase in number of dwellings since 1991


3.4.2 Housing condition and vacancy rates

3.4.2.1 The 2011 census gives little information about the condition of the town’s housing stock: only that just 1.5% of homes in the town lacked central heating, compared with an average of around 2.0% in the rest of Warwickshire and 2.7% nationally. But given the relatively young age of the stock, and judging from its outward appearance, it is unlikely that there are any serious issues of 'unfitness' or 'overcrowding' such as one might expect in problematic and badly maintained urban housing estates. The level of vacancies recorded in the 2011 census was only 3.6% in Shipston, compared with 5.3% in Stratford District, 3.7% in Warwickshire and 4.4% in England & Wales. This may be a reflection of the good condition of most of the properties in the town.

3.4.3 Tenure

3.4.3.1 In 2011 71% of the dwellings in Shipston were owner occupied, 16½% rented from a Housing Association, and 10% rented from a private landlord. Other forms of tenure made up the remaining 2½%. The percentage in owner occupation over the previous 20 years remained fairly static but there was a drop in renting from Housing Associations and an increase in renting from private landlords (see Figure 12). The current tenure mix in the town is not very different from the picture regionally and nationally, though Shipston has a higher percentage of owner occupation than in England & Wales as a whole (see Figure 13).


1991 2001 20110%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

% Other Housing (including Sharing)

% Rented from Private Landlord

% Rented from Hous-ing Association

% Owner Occupied

Housing Tenure, Shipston-on-Stour Parish, 1991-2011


Shipston Parish Stratford District Warwickshire England & Wales0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Housing Tenure in 2011, by area

% Other Housing (including Sharing)

% Rented from Private Landlord

% Rented from Hous-ing Association or Local Authority

% Owner Occupied

Figure 13 (Source: 2011 Census)

3.4.4 Housing mix and size

3.4.4.1 39% of the homes in Shipston in 2011 were detached, 24% semi-detached, 26% terraced and 10% flats. Other types of dwelling, such as caravans, made up the remaining 1%. There was little change in the mix over the previous 20 years: because of the size of the existing stock of housing, trends take a long time to work through and affect the statistics. But there was a fall in the percentage of terraced housing and flats and an increase in the proportion of semi detached homes – see Figure 14.


1991 2001 20110%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Housing Type, Shipston-on-Stour Parish, 1991-2011

% Caravan / Mobile Home

% Flats

% Terraced

% Semi-detached

% Detached


3.4.4.2 It is an aim of the Core Strategy that “all new homes (both market and affordable and whether general needs or specialised) will contribute to the creation of balanced and sustainable communities by meeting identified local and District housing needs in terms of mix, size, tenure and type to cater for the full range of different households” (Policy CS.18). The following table sets out the Core Strategy’s preferred type and size mix of homes that will apply on new development sites (the final mix achieved on any site will be informed by factors including any relevant site specific issues and evidence of local market circumstances):

Dwelling Type Market housing Affordable Housing1 bed (2 person) 5-10% 10-20%2 bed (3 or 4 person) 35-40% 25-45%3 bed (5 or 6 person) 40-45% 25-45%4+ bed (6, 7 or 8+ person) 15-20% 5-25%

3.4.4.3 To maximise flexibility in the housing stock, the Core Strategy requires that 1 and 2 bed affordable homes should be provided through an appropriate mix of bungalows, maisonettes and houses, whilst 3 and 4 bed affordable homes should be provided as houses. Affordable homes, irrespective of tenure, should not be provided as flats or apartments. Intermediate affordable housing should not be provided as 1-bed homes. All 1 and 2 bed affordable homes must be built with bedrooms capable of satisfactorily accommodating 2 occupiers in each bedroom (i.e. double or twin bedrooms).

3.4.5 Specialist accommodation

3.4.5.1 There are three sheltered housing schemes in Shipston. Rainbow Fields provides 30 self-contained flats and 6 bungalows and is co-managed by Orbit and Heart of England. Stour Court, managed by Orbit, provides 37 bungalows and communal areas. Horse Fair is managed by Anchor and provides 19 units.

3.4.5.2 There is one residential care homes in the town: Low Furlong, operated by Runwood Homes. This facility provides long term residential care, including secure facilities for those with dementia; short stay residential respite care; and day care. A planning permission was recently implemented


to increase the amount of accommodation to from 35 to 43 rooms. There is outstanding permission to demolish the existing building and replace it with a building providing 63 rooms. This increase in accommodation does not count towards the Core Strategy housing allocation for Shipston even though it might result in existing houses becoming available for new occupants (and thus leading to a net increase in the stock of dwelling units).

3.4.5.3 Rosemount in Stratford Road, operated by Mencap, and providing 10 independent units plus a communal area, offering supported living for people with learning difficulties, is categorised as Extra Care accommodation. This is discussed further in section 3.5.3 below.

3.4.5.4 There are no mobile home parks in Shipston.

3.4.5.5 There are no gypsy and traveller sites within the Neighbourhood Plan area, but there is a site on Darlingscote Road just beyond the parish boundary. Gypsy and traveller sites are not covered by the submitted Core Strategy: SDC intends to prepare a Gypsy and Traveller Local Plan and has recently undertaken a call for suitable sites, enabling people to suggest sites they think are suitable to accommodate gypsies and travellers. We are not aware of any demand for such a site in Shipston itself.

3.4.6 Layout and design

3.4.6.1 See the Audit & Issues Report from the Environment Topic Group.

3.5 Current housing need

3.5.1 Affordable housing

3.5.1.1 Affordable housing is defined in the Core Strategy as “Social rented, affordable rented and intermediate housing, provided to eligible households whose needs are not met by the market. Eligibility is determined with regard to local incomes and local house prices. Affordable housing should include provisions to remain at an affordable price for future eligible households or for the subsidy to be recycled for alternative affordable housing provision. Social rented housing is owned by local authorities and private registered providers (as defined in

section 80 of the Housing and Regeneration Act 2008), for which guideline target rents are determined through the national rent regime. It may also be owned by other persons and provided under equivalent rental arrangements to the above, as agreed with the local authority or with the Homes and Communities Agency.

Affordable rented housing is let by local authorities or private registered providers of social housing to households who are eligible for social rented housing. Affordable Rent is subject to rent controls that require a rent of no more than 80% of the local market rent (including service charges, where applicable).

Intermediate housing is homes for sale and rent provided at a cost above social rent, but below market levels subject to the criteria in the Affordable Housing definition above. These can include shared equity (shared ownership and equity loans), other low cost homes for sale and intermediate rent, but not affordable rented housing.

Homes that do not meet the above definition of affordable housing, such as ‘low cost market’ housing, may not be considered as affordable housing for planning purposes.”

3.5.1.2 High house prices and private rents exclude many working and non-working households from the housing market. For example15:

15 Core Strategy para. 5.3.3 and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28648704, 19 August 2014


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28648704

The Stratford District house price to income ratio in 2012 was 13.1 to 1 compared to a ratio across the West Midlands of 8.8 to 1 (National Housing Federation, 2014). Stratford’s ratio made its house prices the 19th least affordable of all rural local authorities in England.

Research carried out by SDC shows that many households struggle to afford or access the local private rented housing market (SDC, 2013). Other research by the National Housing Federation using Valuation Office Agency data shows that in the year to September 2013 private rents in the District averaged £835 per calendar month and were the highest in the West Midlands.

3.5.1.3 A Housing Needs Survey (HNS) carried out specifically for this Neighbourhood Plan at the end of 2013 showed a current requirement for 26 affordable homes in Shipston:

For rent For shared ownership2 bedroom bungalow 3 2 bedroom house 173 bedroom house 2 24 bedroom house 15 bedroom house 1Total 24 2

3.5.1.4 These results are comparable with SDC’s Housing Waiting List. In July 2014 that list contained 159 households with a Shipston address (compared with 185 a year earlier), but only 17 of the 159 were high or medium priority requirements.

3.5.1.5 38 affordable homes were built at Shipston House / Tileman’s Lane between 2011 (the start of the plan period) and the date of the HNS, and a further five have been completed since at Caudlewell Drive. Outstanding planning permissions will deliver more than 120 affordable homes (see map at Annex 3): more than sufficient to meet current needs as assessed in the HNS. In addition, a proportion of existing affordable homes will become available for re-letting each year. Over the past six years this figure has averaged very roughly 25 dwellings per year16.

3.5.1.6 But there will almost certainly continue to be new demands for affordable homes throughout the period to 2031 by people with a local connection to Shipston as new households seek to form whilst, at the same time, the average lifespan of existing residents increases so that homes are not freed up as quickly as in the past. Once existing permissions have been implemented, re-lets may not be sufficient to meet this ongoing requirement.

3.5.1.7 The Core Strategy requires that all new residential development in Shipston comprising self-contained homes and providing 11 or more dwellings or a combined gross floorspace of more than 1,000 square metres must provide at least 35% of the dwellings as affordable homes. On each site to which this policy applies, an appropriate tenure profile will be determined based on the principle that total affordable housing costs (rents and sale prices together with any applicable service charges) must be set at levels which will ensure that the accommodation is genuinely affordable to all households on low incomes, including those in work and/or with special needs. The following

16 Information provided by SDC in 2014


preferred tenure mix will also apply (the final mix achieved on any site will be informed by factors including any relevant site specific issues and evidence of local circumstances):

Maximum 20% Affordable Rented Housing Maximum 20% Intermediate Housing Minimum 60% Social Rented Housing

3.5.2 Market housing

3.5.2.1 It is not possible to project a requirement for market housing to meet the needs of the current population of Shipston, though 24 respondents to the 2013 HNS expressed a need for ‘local needs’ market housing (i.e. low cost market housing sold at a price lower than the normal market value):

1 or 2 bedroom bungalow 11 or 2 bedroom house or bungalow 12 bedroom bungalow 12 bedroom house 32 bedroom house or bungalow 12 or 3 bedroom bungalow 12 or 3 bedroom house 23 bedroom bungalow 13 bedroom house 93 bedroom house or bungalow 13 or 4 bedroom house 24 bedroom house 1Total 24

3.5.2.2 There are examples locally (e.g. in Ilmington) of market housing being offered for sale first to potential purchasers who can demonstrate a local connection, at a reduced price.

3.5.2.3 The demand for bungalows shown by the HNS is confirmed by comments received during public consultation and by the views of local estate agents. In general, however, developers appear to be reluctant to build them for economic reasons.

3.5.3 Extra Care Housing

3.5.3.1 'Extra care' housing (ECH) developments comprise self-contained homes with design features and support and care services available to enable self-care and independent living (such as 24-hour on-site care and support). Each household has its own front door. It is for people whose disabilities, frailty or health needs make ordinary housing unsuitable but who do not need or want to move to long term care (residential or nursing homes). The only ECH scheme in Shipston at present is the 10 unit Mencap development in Stratford Road. However, outline planning permission has been granted on appeal for 72 ECH units as part of a larger development on the north side of Campden Road. (An alternative application by the same developer on the same site, the appeal decision on which is expected shortly, includes only 45 ECH units.)

3.5.3.2 The latest estimate by Warwickshire County Council (December 2013) is that there is a current shortfall in Shipston of 162 ECH units providing 24/7 care for the elderly: 70 to meet the needs of the town’s residents and 92 to meet the needs of those living in the surrounding rural


parishes. (It is WCC policy to locate ECH in towns because of the range of facilities located there.) WCC estimates that 25% of the units should be for social rent and 75% for private sale:

WCC Ward Social rented Private TotalShipston 18 52 70Tredington + Brailes + Long Compton 23 69 92Total 41 121 162

3.5.3.3 Existing commitments will not be sufficient to meet this requirement, and this shortfall is only likely to increase over the period to 2031. On current trends it is possible that by 2021 a third of Shipston’s residents will be aged 65+. There is therefore likely to be a growing need for ECH units to meet the needs of town’s growing elderly population.

3.6 Sustainable housing

3.6.1 It is one of the Strategic Objectives of the CS that, by 2031, the District will have reduced its greenhouse gas emissions, so as to contribute to the national target for reduction, through a range of measures such as the location and design of development. It proposes that, to help mitigate and adapt to climate change, all residential development will have achieved as a minimum the national standards set out in Building Regulations.

3.6.2 The principal current design code for sustainable development is the Code for Sustainable Homes (CSH). It is due to be incorporated into the Building Regulations in 2016. CSH defines a range of levels of performance against nine sustainability criteria which are combined to assess the overall environmental impact of a development.

3.6.3 Under the Building Regulations all developers will need to construct houses to at least the new minimum standards of environmental impact. There is scope, however, for them to build to higher standards, but it is likely that building to a higher level of sustainability adds to the cost of home construction, making it less affordable (though some of these additional costs may be offset over time in lower running costs).

3.7 Past rates of house building

3.7.1 The number of houses in the town more than doubled between 1981 and 200817 – an average increase of some 40 new homes every year.

3.8 Housing commitments

3.8.1 66 dwellings have been completed in Shipston since April 2011 (the start date of the Core Strategy period) and there are outstanding planning permissions which will lead to a net increase of another 518 dwellings (two of them on windfall sites) – see map at Annex 4. An appeal has been lodged against SDC’s refusal of permission for 55 homes on London Road, south of Angela’s Meadow, but we understand that SDC will not be defending its decision and so those houses are also likely to be granted permission. Also, a planning application is expected to be submitted shortly for around 100 homes at Shoulderway Lane.

3.8.2 There is a strong possibility that a majority of the schemes which already have planning permission will have been completed by the early 2020s. In addition, redevelopment and windfall sites are likely to continue to become available within the existing built up area during the plan

17 Core Strategy para. 6.6.3


period, some of which would be most suited to small-scale housing development. That could mean up to or even in excess of 400 dwellings being built in Shipston over the 10 years 2011-2021: an average annual building rate matching that seen over recent decades (see Figure 15).

1991 2001 2011 20210

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Shipston Parish

Actual and projected number of dwellings in Shipston, 1991-2021

Figure 15 (Source: Census data + SDC information on completions and planning permissions)

3.9 Public opinion

3.9.1 It is a widely held view in the town that the provision of educational and medical facilities in Shipston, improvements to the road and public transport systems, and the introduction of flood prevention measures, has not kept pace with the rapid rate of growth over the past 30 or more years. The overwhelming opinion expressed during public engagement on the Neighbourhood Plan is that there should be no more large-scale housing developments, and that any further housing construction should not take place until deficiencies in social and physical infrastructure have been remedied. A sizeable number of people believe there should be no more house-building at all in Shipston during the Neighbourhood Plan period.

3.9.2 Unfortunately it is not possible to put a moratorium on further planning permissions being granted. Statutory undertakings such as the water authority and power and telephone companies have a legal obligation to service new developments, and the County Council and NHS likewise are required to make adequate education, highway and health provision. Financial contributions are routinely required of developers towards the cost of providing these and other services to the new homes they are constructing, and legal agreements are currently being put in place to secure a site for a new medical centre on land to the north of Campden Road, near the proposed supermarket.

3.9.3 Nor is it likely to be realistic to make no allocations of new housing land in Shipston for the period up to 2031: the Neighbourhood Plan has to be in conformity with the Core Strategy and that sees the Major Rural Centres, of which Shipston is one, continuing to play a major role in the provision of new homes in the District. If the Neighbourhood Plan fails to make adequate provision, SDC will allocate sites itself on the basis of its Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (see section 2.1.2), which is currently updating. What the Plan does is provide the opportunity to identify development sites in those locations which are most acceptable to the local community.

4. Development scenarios and implications


4.1 Development projections

4.1.1 As noted in section 1.3 above, the examination-in-public of the draft Core Strategy has led to the Inspector concluding in his Interim Report that the Core Strategy is not sound as it stands, particularly in respect of its housing proposals; that further work is needed by SDC which will almost certainly result in an increase in the number of new houses which need to be built in the District by 2031; and that there is scope to increase the amount of new housing to be directed to the Main Rural Centres (which include Shipston). Although it will need to be subject to a full appraisal of whether this is locally appropriate and sustainable on planning grounds, to a further round of public consultation, to the re-opening of the examination-in-public and to the Inspector’s Final Report, it is therefore quite possible that Shipston’s housing allocation will be increased beyond the level of current commitments.

4.1.2 What is clear from sections 3.8.1 and 3.5.1.5 above is that, with over 580 houses built since 2011 or ‘in the pipeline’ from planning permissions already granted, Shipston will be making a significant contribution to the housing needs of the District until at least the early 2020s; and with a large proportion of those being affordable homes, the town’s current need for such accommodation will be more than adequately met.

4.1.3 However, the audit has shown that some additional housing land allocations might be required for the second decade of the plan period to continue to meet the inevitable need for affordable homes and for Extra Care Housing. There might also be a need for additional market housing to help to maintain a balanced population structure. And the Neighbourhood Plan will also need to identify a number of reserve housing sites, though the scale of these cannot be determined until SDC has completed its re-working of the Core Strategy proposals.

4.2 Constraints and opportunities

4.2.1 The audit has shown that:

• rates of housebuilding in Shipston have far outstripped those in Stratford District, Warwickshire and nationally. A large proportion of the population of Shipston is unhappy with the past pace of housing development in the town and would like to see it slow down in future. Some people would like it to stop altogether.

• the town is very attractive to in-migrants and there appears to be a ready market for new homes.

• many of the in-migrants appear to be of retirement age. Shipston has a higher percentage of elderly people than Stratford District, Warwickshire and the country as a whole and the rate of increase of its elderly population has been faster than in those other areas.

• this trend is likely to become increasingly pronounced over the next 16 years, with implications for medical services, transport and specialist housing in the town

• though children may form a smaller percentage of the population there will still be a need for additional school places in Shipston.

• planning permissions already granted are likely to result in past building rates in Shipston being maintained in the current decade and into the next.

• as new households continue to form, the demand for additional affordable housing in Shipston will continue beyond 2021.


4.2.2 If new housing development over the next 16 years were to be limited to existing commitments or to additional new homes just for the elderly, there would almost certainly be implications for the character and vitality of the town. It could be argued that maintaining a balanced age structure in the town is necessary to ensure the vitality and viability of the town centre; and that without a continuing supply of general housing development during the 2020s, house prices in the town will rise faster than other towns in the area, making it even harder for local people to enter into the local housing market. Additional general housing developments would also generate financial contributions from developers (Section 106 payments and Community Infrastructure Levy) to fund physical and social infrastructure and other improvements in the town.

4.2.3 The floodplain of the River Stour severely restricts opportunities for further housing development east of the A3400. Section 1.4.3 above describes the physical constraints on development in other directions. It is clear that there are relatively few potential new housing sites within the boundaries of Shipston parish which could be developed without some landscape or other environmental impact. The Neighbourhood Plan will need to define what the community considers to be the boundary beyond which new development will not extend in the period up to 2031.

4.2.4 In addition to windfall sites there may be opportunities for more comprehensive redevelopment within the existing built up area in areas where housing might be a more appropriate use than current land uses. The Neighbourhood Plan should investigate whether any such sites exist, either just for housing or for mixed uses comprising a combination of, for example, Extra Care housing, community facilities, retailing and/or small business units.

4.2.5 One further important opportunity that the Neighbourhood Plan provides is to set out clear guidance to developers on how new developments should be designed and laid out, to supplement the Town Design Statement18. This could embrace such aspects as appropriate density, mix of house types and sizes, the importance of links to the town centre (i.e. transport, cycling, walking and ease of access for those with mobility needs) and links between different housing areas (to integrate new schemes into the existing urban fabric and enhance cross-town accessibility), and the desirability of linking open space between developments to create green corridors. It could also encourage the construction of bungalows and of self-build homes on appropriate sites.

5. Matters for the other Topic Groups

5.1 There needs to be consideration by the three other topic groups of this report such that a) the findings are acknowledged and accepted; and b) cross-topic issues and opportunities are carefully considered and potential proposals and projects are identified.

5.2 The essential prerequisite for all cross-topic considerations is that we have a shared vision for the future of Shipston. What sort of town do we want Shipston to be in 2031 (e.g. a dormitory/commuter town, a retirement town, a ‘balanced community’)? What are the implications of this vision for the housing, economy, infrastructure and environmental proposals that should go into the Neighbourhood Plan?

5.3 Priority issues and opportunities

18 Shipston Town Design Statement, adopted by STC in September 2014


5.3.1 Without pre-empting a cross-topic group discussion, several issues have been identified that merit consideration. Intervention through suitable policies and proposals should be considered, with the option of making site allocations as a basis for future projects.

5.3.2 Potential sites need to be identified to provide for a continuing supply of affordable and Extra Care housing throughout the plan period. This will involve identifying those development sites which are most acceptable to the community – which is likely to be those with the least landscape or other environmental impact – and where development is feasible. That will need to involve discussions with landowners, developers and Housing Associations. Similarly, it would be prudent to identify a number of reserve sites for housing in anticipation that the final approved Core Strategy will require Shipston to make such provision. Again, that will require consideration of the physical and environmental constraints on the location of development. The environment and infrastructure groups will need to be closely involved in all this work.

5.3.3 Hand in hand with that exercise will be the definition where we want the settlement boundary to be in 2031. That again will rely heavily on the work of the environment group.

5.3.4 Consideration should be given to the desirability of maintaining a supply of general market housing throughout the 2020s to maintain the economic and social vitality of the town; and also whether the Neighbourhood Plan should make specific provision for the construction of local needs market housing. The economy and infrastructure groups will have an important role to play in these deliberations. Alternatively, should and could a robust case be put together for limiting any new planning permissions for housing to affordable and Extra Care homes?

5.3.5 It will be critical to give thought to the economic and the physical and social infrastructure implications of past rates of house building continuing at least until the early 2020s and possibly beyond. How can we provide more jobs locally for the growing population? How can we try to ensure that medical and school provision stays better in step with new development than it has in the past? This work will need close attention from the economy and the infrastructure groups.

5.3.6 The infrastructure and environment groups also need to consider whether we need to make any special infrastructure provision in the plan for the increasingly elderly population (e.g. more seats in the town centre and on routes to the town centre, medical centre and hospital; buggy charging points at key locations; more dropped kerbs: more disabled parking provision; encouraging level entrances to shops; expanding the local bus service provided by the Shipston Link, etc.).

5.3.7 The possibility that opportunities exist for mixed use redevelopment of sites within the existing built-up area is one that has implications for all topic groups. Such potential sites need to be identified and their boundaries defined; thought needs to be given to what new uses they might be put to; and then the feasibility of such redevelopment explored.

5.3.8 The environment group is already looking at how best to integrate new development with the existing settlement/community. This includes seeking opportunities for enhancing ‘green infrastructure’19 and linking open space between developments to create green corridors.

5.3.9 The housing group will need to work closely with the environment group in thinking about the design standards that should be required for new housing, to supplement and amplify the policies in the Town Design Statement. That will include consideration of whether a maximum size should and could be imposed on new housing schemes. Allied to this, they and the other groups

19 Areas such as parks, gardens and amenity green space, accessible natural and semi-natural green space, allotments and community orchards


should consider whether there are any standards and design documents (such as ‘Secured by Design’20 and ‘Sustainable Design & Construction’21) that need to be taken into account by more than one topic group in framing their policies and proposals, so as to ensure consistency and co-ordination across the Neighbourhood Plan. This will require some thinking about the potential trade-off between sustainability and affordability. To what extent should the Neighbourhood Plan require developers to construct new homes to the highest possible levels of sustainability, even if this adds to the cost of affordable housing?

5.4 Sustainability appraisal

5.4.1 A final and generic issue for all topic groups is how most effectively to guide and embed energy efficiency and sustainable development22. This bears on all of the mentioned infrastructure and related topics. A very good starting point is for the topic groups to decide how they will use ’sustainability appraisal’ as a policy formulation tool. This methodology will figure in the plan-making by ensuring that the draft plan as a minimum is consistent with the other existing and emerging plans produced by the District Council. The point is that sustainability appraisal is a very helpful tool23 well worth doing and not just because a ‘box has to be ticked’. An early discussion across the topic groups should look at the application of the tool and get it moving before in-depth consideration of issues leads to emerging possible policies and proposals. An input from the District Council is required to ensure their approach is understood and they will ‘buy-in’ to what is done locally.

Issued by Ed Jackson for the Housing Topic Group 25 May 2015

20 ‘Secured by Design’, Association of Chief Police Officers21 ‘Sustainable Design & Construction’, Cross Sector Group on Sustainable Design & Construction, August 201222 Definition: an approach to development that aims to allow economic growth without damaging the environment or natural resources so compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. ‘Locality Roadmap Guide Glossary of Terms’, 2012.23 ‘DIY SA: Sustainability Appraisal of Neighbourhood Plans’, Levett-Therivel, August 2011


Annex 1: The Neighbourhood Plan area


Annex 2: Past housing construction in Shipston


Annex 3: Location of affordable housing built or permitted since 2011


Annex 4: Location of housing developments built or permitted since 2011 (net increase)


shipston-on-stour web view1.1.2 the housing topic group comprised the following individuals: ed...

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