singapore property weekly issue 126
TRANSCRIPT
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Issue 126Copyright 2011-2013 www.Propwise.sg. All Rights Reserved.
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CONTENTS
p2 How to Value Strata-Title Commercial Property
p11 Singapore Property News This Week
p17 Resale Property Transactions
(October 2 October 8)
Welcome to the 126th edition of the
Singapore Property Weekly.
Hope you like it!
Mr. Propwise
FROM THE
EDITOR
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How to Value Strata-Title Commercial Property
By Argus Software
On the back of low interest rates and strong
market liquidity, transaction volumes of
commercial strata-titled units in both the
primary and secondary property markets
have risen tremendously. Cooling measures
in the residential sector have also diverted
yield hungry investors towards the
commercial property sectors. As a result,
property developers have started to ride on
the wave of investor interest and strata-sell
units in commercial developments instead of
leasing them out for recurring income.
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Impact of the TDSR on commercial
property sales
In June 2013, the Singapore government
announced the implementation of a TotalDebt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) framework,
which requires the application of a 4.5%
medium-term interest rate or the prevailing
market interest rate, whichever is higher, to
the commercial property loan that the
borrower is applying for. According to DTZResearch, the number of strata-titled shop
and factory resale transactions fell by around
67% and 50% quarter-on-quarter respectively
in Q3 2013, partly due to the TDSR
framework.
As the operating environment becomes more
challenging with stricter financing rules,
potential higher interest rates and large
pipeline supply in the market, investors are
more concerned about the future cash flows
generated and the potential appreciation of
their investment. Likewise, property agencies
in charge of marketing such commercial
strata-titled projects also feel a stronger need
to provide more details in their analysis for
clients.
Case study: Nine Residences
Huttons Group, a property agency in
Singapore, has been appointed to market
Nine Residences, an upcoming 99-year
leasehold mixed development located at
Yishun Avenue 9. The developer has
decided to strata-title the two-storey retailcomponent (Junction Nine) into 146 units for
sale.
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The indicative pricing for the shop units is at
least $3,000 per sq ft and the project is
expected to complete in mid-2017.
Most marketing materials provide the
snapshot above for potential property buyers,
which may not provide sufficient details to
make a rational investment decision. For
example, the snapshot does not include
projections of future cash flows of the
property, which is required for potential
buyers to assess their debt servicing abilities.
As a result, agent representatives may
expose investors to unintended future risk.
Predicting the future cash flows of the
property
In order to predict the future cash flows of the
property, an investor is required to make
calculations based on assumptions and
market trends (see Table 1 and 2 below). Just
like a stock market investment, property
investors need to develop basic valuation
skills in order to make rational purchase
decisions.
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To value an investment property, it is
important to understand how the signed
leases determine cash flows. Operating
expenses such as service charges andannual property taxes for strata units may
be borne by the landlord in certain
instances. All expenses pertaining to the
strata unit needs to be deducted from the
revenues to determine net operating income
(NOI). Any additional capital expenses in
maintaining the property are deducted from
the net operating income to determine thefuture cash flows. Finally, a future sales
price of the property is also projected in
order to determine the overall present value.
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Table 1: An example of forecasting future cash flows
Source: ARGUS Software (Asia Pacific) estimates only
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Junction Nine Sep, 2014 Sep, 2015 Sep, 2016 Sep, 2017 Sep, 2018 Sep, 2019 Sep, 2020 Sep, 2021 Sep, 2022 Sep, 2023
0 0 0 8,532 34,128 35,195 38,483 38,750 38,750 38,750
0 0 0 -2,844 0 0 -807 0 0 -807
0 0 0 5,688 34,128 35,195 37,676 38,750 38,750 37,942
0 0 0 5,688 34,128 35,195 37,676 38,750 38,750 37,942
0 0 0 7 28 21 8 32 32 32
0 0 0 5,695 34,156 35,216 37,684 38,782 38,782 37,975
0 0 0 932 3,841 3,956 4,075 4,197 4,323 4,453
0 0 0 569 3,413 3,519 3,768 3,875 3,875 3,794
0 0 0 219 900 927 955 984 1,013 1,044
0 0 0 0 0 64 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 1,720 8,154 8,467 8,798 9,056 9,212 9,291
0 0 0 3,975 26,002 26,749 28,886 29,726 29,570 28,684
0 0 0 2,844 0 1,600 3,229 0 0 3,229
0 0 0 -5,688 0 -3,200 -6,458 0 0 -6,458
0 0 0 5,688 0 3,200 6,458 0 0 6,458
0 0 0 0 0 -5,688 -3,200 0 0 -6,458
0 0 0 0 0 5,688 3,200 0 0 6,458
0 0 0 2,844 0 1,600 3,229 0 0 3,229
0 0 0 0 0 0 2,500 0 0 2,500
0 0 0 0 0 0 2,500 0 0 2,500
0 0 0 2,844 0 1,600 5,729 0 0 5,729
0 0 0 1,131 26,002 25,149 23,157 29,726 29,570 22,954
10,982 11,254 18,762 27,592 27,101 26,581 26,036 25,460 24,853 24,213
10,982 11,254 18,762 27,592 27,101 26,581 26,036 25,460 24,853 24,213
14,112 14,171 11,593 9,149 9,640 10,160 10,705 11,282 11,888 12,528
14,112 14,171 11,593 9,149 9,640 10,160 10,705 11,282 11,888 12,528
25,094 25,425 30,355 36,741 36,741 36,741 36,741 36,742 36,741 36,741
-25,094 -25,425 -30,355 -35,610 -10,739 -11,592 -13,584 -7,016 -7,171 -13,787Cash Flow After Debt Service
UOB Term Loan
Total Interest
Principal
UOB Term Loan
Total Principal
Total Debt Service
Renovation
Total Capital Expenditures
Total Leasing & Capital Costs
Cash Flow Before Debt Service
Debt Service
Interest
Security Deposits
Invested Security Deposits
Distributed Deposit Investments
Deposit Refund
Total Leasing Costs
Capital Expenditures
Insurance
Stamp Duties
Total Operating Expenses
Net Operating Income
Leasing Costs
Leasing Commissions
Effective Gross Revenue
Operating Expenses
Service Charge
Property Tax
Free Rent
Scheduled Base Rent
Total Rental Revenue
Other Tenant Revenue
Total Other Tenant Revenue
Rental Revenue
Potential Base Rent
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Table 2: Analysing returns to make a Buy/Sell decision
Source: ARGUS Software (Asia Pacific) estimates only
Junction Nine - Yishun Purchase Price
Yishun Avenue 9 Closing Costs (2.00%)Singapore Total Purchase Price
Retail Less Debt Amount (78.54%)
237 sq f t Equity
Oct, 2013
10 Years 0 Months
3.00% Discount Rate
Unleveraged PV
Summary Cash Flow (Year 1) Per SF Cap Rate
Potential Gross Revenue $0 Gross Income Multiplier
Vacancy & Adjustments 0 Property Resale (Sep, 2023)
Effective Gross Revenue 0 Unleveraged IRR
Operating Expenses 0 Recommended Hold End
Net Operating Income 0 IRR for Recommended Hold
Leasing & Capital Costs 0 Breakeven Date
Cash Flow Before Debt Service 0 NOI Yield
Debt Service -$105.88 Cash On Cash Yield
Cash Flow After Debt Service -$105.88
Debt Financing UOB Term Loan CIMB Term Loan
Loan Begins Oct, 2013 Oct, 2013
September, 2023 Amount $569,600 $569,600
29,245 Interest Rate 1.95% 1.70%
29,245 Term 360 Months 360 Months
3.00% Payment $2,091 Monthly $2,021 Monthly
974,840 Loan Costs $800 $1,200
-19,497 Loan to Present Value
955,343 Debt Coverage Ratio
454,372
500,971
PV ofNet Sale Price 597,787
Gross Sale Price
Property Sale Commission
Net Sale Price
Less: Loan Balance
Proceeds from Sale
Sales Proceeds Calculation
Residual Sale Date
Net Operating Income (NOI)
NOI to Capitalize
Divided by Cap Rate
Analysis Begin Date
Length of Analysis
Property Summary
Junction Nine - Yishun (Amounts in SGD, Measures in SF)
Oct, 2013 through Sep, 2024
Property Information
Property Name
Purchase & Investment
0
0
0
-$25,094
-$25,094
General Inflation
Amount
$0
0
0
$711,000
$14,220$725,220
$569,600
$155,620
0
AddressCity, State
Property Type
Unit Area
4.80%
$709,137 [$2,992.14/SF]
3.00%
33.33
$955,343 [$4,030.98/SF]
Present Value & Yield
-16.13%
80.32%
0
4.56%
Sep, 202031.73%
N/A
0.00%
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Benefits of using cash flow projections
A projected cash flow statement will also
allow the bank to accurately assess the
income generating ability of the investment
property, and depending on the debt service
cover ratio (DSCR) achieved on the cash
flow, a favorable loan quantum for the
borrower could be considered by the lender.
The bank will also be able to review the
underlying assumptions used in these cash
flow projections and make necessary
adjustments, resulting in greater
transparency of the loan review.
Another positive benefit of using cash flow
projections is that the property agent can also
track future leasing and sales activity and
resulting commissions (Table 3). As a result,
the agent can for example develop
customised leasing and marketing strategies
for their clients.
Table 3: An example of projecting leasing activity
Source: ARGUS Software (Asia Pacific) estimates only
Single Tenant / Lease
Status Details
Lease
Type
Begin
Date
Lease
Term
Expiration
Date
Minimum
Term
Lease
Period
Lease
Status Area
Initial
Base
Rent
Base
Rent/
Area
(yr)
Base
Rent/
Area
(mth)
Leasing
Commissions
Leasing
Commissions/
Area
Junction Nine #01-10
Tenant X Retail 1/7/2017 2y 30/6/2019 2y Base Contract 237 34,128 144.00 12.00 2,844 12.00
Tenant X (Option 1) Retail 1/7/2019 1y 30/6/2020 1y Option Option 237 38,394 162.00 13.50 1,600 6.75
Tenant X (Opt ion 1) Retail 1/7/2020 3y 30/6/2023 3y Market Contract 237 38,750 163.50 13.63 3,229 13.63
Final Totals 2y 711 111,272 156.50 13.04 7,673 10.79
99-Years Leasehold
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Using cash flow projections versus
traditional methods
A major data source for the real estate
industry is historical transactional data
based on caveats which several market data
providers currently use. One limitation of
using historical data is that it may not be
indicative of future market trends and fails to
provide projections for the investor. Unlike
the cash flow analysis, comparing withhistorical transactions does not allow an
investor to approximate the true value of the
investment property and assess if the
prospective sales price can be supported.
Another data source for the real estate
industry is the certified valuation which all
property transactions require. However, an
investors valuation may differ from that of an
approved valuer as they tend to lag the
market, causing properties to be overvalued
when market fundamentals are deteriorating
and undervalued when property markets
strengthen. There may also be significant
differences in opinions among investors and
valuers about the assumptions used when
forecasting future earnings.
Creating a cash flow estimation and
valuation of an investment property
Unknown to many, it is possible to create an
accurate cash flow estimate and valuation of
an investment property with limited access to
sophisticated property valuation tools. The
basic investment model is the same for all
property types, although how income is
generated and expenses are incurred may
differ depending on the type of commercial
property.
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The investor will be required to include local
market data in terms of rental rates, lease
structures, leasing commission, capital
allowances, tax rates and other market
standards into the cash flow model tounderstand the market risk and achieve a
better estimate of value.
Once the intrinsic value of the property has
been determined, it can be compared with the
selling price and other transactional data to
arrive at a rational investment decision.
By ARGUS Software, which provides
software and services to real estate owners,
investors, developers, financial institutions,
estate agents and REITS. Argus Solutions
enable customers to improve visibility and to
better manage financial and operational
performance of their real estate portfolios.
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 126
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Singapore Property This Week
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Residential
F r ee h o ld p r o p e r ty n o t n e c es s a r il y b e tt er
than 99-year leasehold
The two general types of property tenure in
Singapore 99-year leasehold property and
freehold property could be considered
similar. However, freehold properties could
hold a few advantages over leasehold
properties, including higher en-bloc potential,
slower pace of depreciation (as leasehold
properties value would diminish over the
course of their lease) and no restrictions on
the use of Central Provident Fund for home
purchases. Recent statistics have shown that
new leasehold condominiums have
dominated the market in recent years, with
new leasehold and new freehold condo sales
standing at 95 and 5 percent respectively for
the first half of 2013. On the contrary, 70
percent of new sales were freehold in 2006
and 2007. This could be due to the increase
of the government land sales programme in
recent years and the tightening of en-bloc
rules in Oct 2007.
(Source: Business Times)
Developers p r i v a t e h o m e s a l e s i n c r e a s e s
in Sept
Developers private home sales, excludingexecutive condominiums units, increased 65
percent to 1,246 units in Sept compared to
756 units in August.
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However, Septs figure is a decrease of more
than half that in Sept 2012. For the third
quarter of 2013, developers have sold a total
of 2,484 private homes, which is the lowest
number since Q4 2009 with only 1,860 unitssold. The TDSR framework introduced in late
June has been attributed for this drop.
According to DTZs South-east Asia Chief
Operating Officer Ong Choon Fah, the ranks
of property investors have thinned
significantly and those still around are goingmostly for smaller units. The latest figures
from the Urban Redevelopment Authority
(URA) revealed an uneven performance
among the seven new projects (excluding EC
developments) that were launched last
month.
(Source: Business Times)
G C B o n L e e d o n R o a d u p f o r s a l e
A 43,926 sq ft two-storey colonial-style good
class bungalow (GCB) at Leedon Road-
Belmont Road junction is put on the market
with the guide price of about $1,700 to $1,800
psf on land area. The freehold site, zoned for
residential use and is within the designated
prime GCB area of Belmont Park, has a
swimming pool and a large garden. Having
dual frontages, its immediate neighbours
include other GCB estates such as Victoria
Park, Leedon Park, and Cornwall Gardens.
(Source: Business Times)
65% o f 50 resi dent i al uni ts rel eased at The
Venue so ld
About 65 per cent of the 50 residential units
released at The Venue Residences and
Shoppes have been sold.
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The units were sold at an early bird average
price of $1,380 psf. In addition, around 60
percent of the 28 retail units at The Venue
Shoppes have been sold at $4,700 to $6,000
psf. The mixed development, along Tai ThongCrescent and a three-minute walk from
Potong Pasir MRT station, is developed by
City Developments Limited and Hong Leong
Holdings with 266 apartments and 28 retail
and dining units.
(Source: Business Times)
D BS sel ls $200m propert y- l inked bonds
DBS Bank has successfully sold $200 million
of five-year bonds on Skies Miltonia Property,
a property development in Yishun comprising
420 residential condominium units and two
commercial units. Private investors were the
buyers of the fixed rate notes due March
2018 issued and secured by Orchis Capital
Pte Ltd, a special purpose company. The
bonds will be based on progress payments
and it is the first of its type since 2008.
(Source: Business Times)
Commercial
HDB to en d as sig nm en t o f t en an ted
b u s i n e s s s p a c es
The Housing & Development Board (HDB)
has acted to restrain the rising operatingcosts and unhealthy speculation in the rental
commercial and industrial properties, which
would result in a fairer playing field for
genuine businesses seeking spaces in these
sectors. The new rule emerged after HDB
noticed rising average assignment fee andtendered rent in the past few years which
would contribute to higher operating costs
and then would be passed on to residents
and consumers.
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HDB would introduce a two-stage plan to stop
the practice of assignment in which tenants
pass on their tenancy to a new party for a
one-time fee. Currently there are 8,000
commercial tenants and 10,700 industrialtenants with an average of 500 cases of such
assignment for each group per year.
(Source: Business Times)
N a m C h e o n g b u y s o f f i c e s p a c e a t S u n t e c
Tow er Three f or $30. 3 mil l ion
Offshore vessel builder Nam Cheong will buy
office space of 10,097 sq ft at Suntec Tower
Three to house its Singapore corporate office
for about $30.3 million. The wholly owned
subsidiary Nam Cheong Offshore has been
granted an option-to-purchase (OTP) for
three office lots (units #41-01 to #41-03) at
Suntec Tower Three from Vista Realty, an
unrelated party. The leasehold property has a
remaining lease till Feb 29, 2088, and an
existing tenancy that will expire between Sept
14 in 2014 and Jan 15 in 2016.
(Source: Business Times)
T w o i n d u s t r i a l p l o t s i n J o o K o o n u p f o r
sale bet w een $7.5 and $10 mil l ion
Two industrial plots located at 9 Joo Koon
Road and 20 Joo Koon Crescent with
potential for additional gross floor area (GFA)
development has been put up for sale at
guide prices between $7.5 million and $10
million the latest industrial properties put up
for sale in recent weeks. They are zoned for
Business 2 use with a plot ratio of 1.4 each.
The two sites are within walking distance of
Joo Koon MRT station and are served by the
Ayer Rajah Expressway or Pan Island
Expressway. The marketing agent for the
plots is Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL).
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S G O O ssue 6
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5 Loyang Drive and Guang Ming Industrial
Building are the industrial plots sold this
month.
(Source: Business Times)
Si ng ap or e CB D is h o m e to th e worlds
largest vert ical garden
Ocean Financial Centres green wall of
51,000 potted plants of 25 species standing
at 19 metres high and 110 metres wide - as
big as eight tennis courts is now the worlds
largest vertical garden. It is located in the
heart ofSingapores Central Business District
(CBD). The pots of the the plants have been
arranged to make up a map of Singapore,
South-east Asia and the world. Not just for
aesthetic purposes, the wall is designed with
proprietary landscaping designs to reduce the
surface temperature of OFC's carpark behind
the wall of green, and act as a green lung
which filters out vehicular emissions and
provides visual relief from the dense concrete
landscape of the CBD. The green wall is also
a show of support for the National Parksvision of creating a City in a Garden out of
Singapore.
(Source: Business Times)
Far Eas t p lac es o p ti m is ti c t op b id s f or
G a m b a s C r e s c e n t i n d u s t r i a l p l o t s
Far East Organization has placed bullish top
bids for two 30-year leasehold industrial plots
in Gambas Crescent which are 700 metres
from Sembawang MRT Station. Its bids were
about 50 percent higher than the respective
second highest bids for each land parcel. Far
East offered about $44.78 million or $137.90
psf ppr for Parcel 1 of nearly 129,900 sq ft,
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which was 48.5 percent more than the
second highest bid of $92.85 psf ppr from
from Hock Lian Seng. Parcel 1 drew six bids.
Far East bid about $46.33 million or $127.19
psf ppr for the 145,710 sq ft Parcel 2, which
was 54.4 percent higher than the next highest
bid of $82.36 psf ppr from Eco-I Pte Ltd.
Parcel 2 drew nine bids, and is located next
to the future North-South Expressway. Strata
sub-division will be allowed for new projects
on the sites, with the minimum strata size at
150 sq metres (1,614.59 sq ft) gross floor
area.
(Source: Business Times)
B l ac k Ro c k ap p o i n ts ag en t s t o s el l A X A
Tow er, 8 Shent on Way
BlackRock, the New York Stock Exchange-
listed and the world's largest asset manager,
has appointed CBRE and Jones Lang LaSalle
as agents to find a buyer for AXA Tower at 8
Shenton Way. This shows the group's serious
intention to sell the landmark circular building
opposite International Plaza and Tanjong
Pagar MRT Station. The price is expected tobe at least $2,000 psf based on the existing
net lettable area (NLA) of 674,000 sq ft, which
would amount to $1.35 billion in total.
(Source: Business Times)
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Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Oct 2 Oct 8
Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
2 CRAIG PLACE 570 950,000 1,665 99
4 REFLECTIONS AT KEPPEL BAY 1,464 3,123,619 2,134 99
4 CARIBBEAN AT KEPPEL BAY 893 1,520,000 1,701 99
5 THE STELLAR 1,528 1,950,000 1,276 FH
9 THE RITZ-CARLTON RESIDENCES SINGAPORE CAIRNHILL 2,831 10,800,000 3,815 FH
9 RIVERGATE 1,507 3,250,000 2,157 FH
9 MARTIN PLACE RESIDENCES 1,163 2,450,000 2,108 FH
9 PARC SOPHIA 549 1,082,000 1,971 FH
9 WILKIE 87 1,335 1,700,000 1,274 FH
10 GRANGE RESIDENCES 2,583 6,800,000 2,632 FH
10 ONE CHATSWORTH 3,305 7,000,000 2,118 FH
10 THE MONTANA 1,055 2,120,550 2,010 FH
10 THE MONTANA 947 1,884,540 1,990 FH
10 THE MONTANA 775 1,539,870 1,987 FH
10 THE MONTANA 947 1,865,590 1,970 FH
10 THE MARBELLA 1,464 2,500,000 1,708 FH
10 DUKES RESIDENCE 1,701 2,680,000 1,576 FH
10 HOLLAND HILL LODGE 2,185 2,200,000 1,007 FH
11 NEWTON 18 926 1,670,000 1,804 FH11 THE LINCOLN RESIDENCES 1,841 3,237,000 1,759 FH
11 MONTEBLEU 1,432 1,807,000 1,262 FH
12 THE MEZZO 840 1,190,000 1,417 FH
12 TRELLIS TOWERS 1,141 1,520,000 1,332 FH
12 OLEANDER TOWERS 1,152 1,280,000 1,111 99
Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
13 WOODSVILLE 28 829 1,180,000 1,424 99
14 SIMSVILLE 1,249 1,280,000 1,025 99
14 SIMS GREEN 1,216 1,050,000 863 99
15 PALM OASIS 743 1,045,000 1,407 FH
15 RIVEREDGE 1,066 1,470,000 1,379 99
15 COSTA RHU 1,647 2,250,000 1,366 99
15 THE GLACIER 1,335 1,450,000 1,086 FH
15 CASUARINA COVE 1,173 1,250,000 1,065 99
15 ELLIOT AT THE EAST COAST 2,314 2,400,000 1,037 FH
15 PROSPERO VILLE 1,076 1,068,000 992 FH
15 JC RESIDENCE 1,313 1,200,000 914 FH
16 LUCKY COURT 1,302 1,400,000 1,075 FH
16 AQUARIUS BY THE PARK 893 900,000 1,007 99
16 BAYSHORE PARK 743 738,000 994 99
16 THE BAYSHORE 926 900,000 972 99
16 THE TANAMERA 1,324 1,120,000 846 99
18 NV RESIDENCES 872 930,000 1,067 99
18 RIS GRANDEUR 1,292 1,200,000 929 FH
18 EASTPOINT GREEN 1,130 1,045,000 925 9918 TROPICAL SPRING 1,335 1,230,000 922 99
18 EASTPOINT GREEN 1,302 1,150,000 883 99
18 MELVILLE PARK 1,345 1,030,000 766 99
18 MELVILLE PARK 1,475 1,080,000 732 99
19 KOVAN RESIDENCES 1,798 2,318,000 1,290 99
SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 126
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7/27/2019 Singapore Property Weekly Issue 126
19/19
Page | 18Back to Contents
NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale propertytransactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore LandAuthority. Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after apurchaser signs an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.
Postal
DistrictProject Name
Area
(sqft)
Transacted
Price ($)
Price
($ psf)Tenure
19 FONTAINE PARRY 1,292 1,560,000 1,208 999
19 THE SPRINGBLOOM 1,119 1,238,000 1,106 99
20 BISHAN PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,292 1,230,000 952 99
21 SIGNATURE PARK 1,421 1,550,000 1,091 FH
21 LE WOOD 1,109 950,000 857 99
21 SHERWOOD TOWER 1,830 1,285,000 702 99
22 THE LAKESHORE 926 1,090,000 1,177 99
23 HILLVIEW 128 1,023 960,000 939 999
23 THE MADEIRA 1,270 1,190,000 937 99
23 REGENT HEIGHTS 1,023 938,000 917 99
23 THE WARREN 1,066 950,000 891 99
23 PARKVIEW APARTMENTS 980 865,000 883 99
23 REGENT GROVE 926 785,000 848 99
23 REGENT GROVE 1,173 930,000 793 99
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