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N O V E M B E R   1 7 ,   2 0 1 5 |   W E S T B O R O U G H ,   M A

Kannan SreenivasacharP R I N C I P A L   E N G I N E E R ,   T R A N S M I S S I O N   P L A N N I N G

Planning Advisory Committee

Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island (SEMA‐RI) 2026 Needs Assessment Scope of Work

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Purpose

• Present the Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island (SEMA‐RI) 2026 Needs Assessment Scope of Work

• Compare the SEMA‐RI 2026 Needs Assessment Scope of Work to the previous SEMA‐RI Needs Assessment Scope of Workpresented at PAC on March 16, 2011 (referred to as the SEMA‐RI 2022 Needs Assessment Scope of Work in this presentation)  

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Overview

• Background on the study effort

• Objectives

• Study area description

• Scope of needs assessment

• Schedule/next steps

• Appendix

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Background• The most recent updates for the SEMA‐RI study are:

– Aquidneck Island Reliability Projects were advanced as discussed at the April 28, 2015 PAC meeting

– In October 2015, Entergy Corporation submitted an NPR request for Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station for June 2019 

– In February 2015, the preferred solution was selected for the Greater Boston area study and the solution components were added to the SEMA‐RI study due to the influence on the area 

– In October 2013, EquiPower submitted an NPR request for Brayton Point Power Station for June 2017

• Links to previous SEMA‐RI presentations and reports have been placed in the Appendix

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Objectives

• Evaluate the reliability performance and identify reliability‐based transmission needs in the SEMA‐RI study area, while considering the following:– Future load growth in the SEMA‐RI area– Long‐term system transfer needs– Reliability over a range of generation patterns and transfer levels

• Brayton Point and Pilgrim retired– Limited short circuit margins in the study area– Coordination with future plans in Boston and NEMA – All applicable transmission planning reliability standards

• Update the assumptions and evaluate reliability‐based transmission needs in SEMA‐RI, while considering overall system performance through 2026

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Study Area – SEMA‐RI Geographical

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Boston Import

CT Import

West Medway ‐Walpole

Farnum

Somerset ‐ Newport

Industrial Park

South Shore

Cape

CT to RI 115 kV Tie

ISO‐NE PUBLIC 7The diagram is shown for reference only and does not include all of the latest topology changes 

SEMA‐RI – One Line Diagram

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Major Interfaces Impacting Study Area

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North – South Interface

Boston Import Zone

SEMA/RI ZoneCT Zone 

East –West Interface

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Modeling Assumptions • All proposed and planned transmission projects, as of the 

May 2015 project listing, will be modeled• The Aquidneck Island Reliability were included in the 

base case • All cleared generator additions and submitted 

retirements through FCA #9 will be modeled.  The table below lists generator retirements in the study area:

New/Retired Generators in SEMA‐RI

Summer Qualified Capacity (MW) Type

Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station 701.5 Non‐Price Retirement

Brayton Point 1544 Non‐Price Retirement

• The 2026 New England summer 90/10 peak load based on CELT 2015 will be modeled, as well as FCA #9‐cleared Demand Resources (DR), forecasted Energy Efficiency (EE) and final 2015 solar photovoltaic (PV) forecast

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Comparison of Load Changes in SEMA‐RI2022 Needs Assessment 2026 Needs Assessment Delta 

Load Levels

2022 Summer Peak load level based on 2013 CELT 

2026 Summer Peak load level based on 2015 CELT 

NE Load : 34,105 MW  NE Load : 35,310 MW  ∆NE Load = +1,205 MW

SEMA‐RI Load : 6,960 MW SEMA‐RI Load : 7,189 MW ∆SEMA‐RI Load = +229 MW

Demand Resources Forecasted EE and PV Forecast

Includes Passive DR (PDR) and Active DR (ADR) cleared in FCA #1‐7 and FCA #8 NPR requestsSEMA‐RI Passive DR = 322 MWSEMA‐RI Active DR = 110 MW

Includes Passive DR (PDR) and Active DR (ADR) cleared in FCA #1‐9

SEMA‐RI Passive DR = 473 MWSEMA‐RI Active DR =  104 MW

Changes in SEMA‐RI Passive DR (PDR) and Active DR (ADR)

∆PDR = +151 MW∆ADR = ‐6 MW

EE forecast for 2017 ‐ 2022 SEMA‐RI EE Forecast = 261 MW

EE forecast for 2019 ‐ 2026SEMA‐RI EE Forecast =  325 MW

Change in EE∆EE Forecast = +64 MW

Total SEMA‐RI DR, EE = 665 MW(100% Passive DR and EE Forecast, 75% Active DR) 

Total SEMA‐RI DR, EE plus PV = 1,026 MW(100% Passive DR and EE Forecast, 75% Active DR, 26% PV Forecast) 

∆Total SEMA‐RI DR, EE, plus PV = +360 MW 

Net SEMA‐RI Load* 6,295 MW 6,163 MW ‐132 MW

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* For this presentation Net Load = Gross Load – Adjustments for Demand Resources, Forecasted EE and PV Forecast** Final 2015 Solar PV Forecast was presented at the Distributed Generation Forecast Working Group meeting in April 2015. http://www.iso‐ne.com/static‐assets/documents/2015/05/final_2015_pv_forecast.pdf

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Generation Dispatches

Unit OOSQualified Capacity

(MW)

Two Units OOS Dispatch Number

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Canal 1 549.9 OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON

Canal 2 545.1 OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON

Edgar 688.3 ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON

Potter 74.2 ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON

Tiverton 244.6 ON ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON ON OFF ON

Dighton 160.3 ON ON OFF OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON

Cleary/Taunton 130.8 ON ON ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON

RISE 548 ON ON ON ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON

Manchester / Franklin Sq 11 149 ON ON ON ON OFF OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON ON ON

Manchester / Franklin Sq 10 149 ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON

NEA Bellingham 277.6 ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF

ANP Bellingham 1 236.4 ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON

ANP Blackstone 1 221.4 ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON

Ocean State Power G3, G4, S2 270.2 ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON

Ocean State Power G1, G2, S1 270.9 ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON ON ON

Lake Road 2 251.2 ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON

Lake Road 1 245.8 ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON ON ON ON ON

Dartmouth Power 83.1 ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON OFF ON ON

Pawtucket Power 61.4 ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON ON ON

SEMass 69.2 ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF ON ON

Milford 149 ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON OFF

*Assume approximately 80% of fast‐start resources available.

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Transfer Levels Tested

Case Interface Level Condition

North‐South Transfers

East‐West Transfers

West toEast Transfers

Boston Import CT Import

AHigh East to West with High North‐

SouthHigh High Low Low High

BHigh West to East with Low North‐

SouthMedium Low High Low Low

CHigh West‐East with Medium North‐South

Medium Low High Medium Low

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Study Methodology• Steady state thermal and voltage analysis will be performed, 

for N‐0 (all‐facilities‐in), N‐1 (all‐facilities‐in, first contingency), and N‐1‐1 (facility‐out, first contingency) for the described set of generation dispatches and inter‐regional stresses

• Up to 1,200 MW generation re‐dispatch will be allowed between the first and second contingency to mitigate the N‐1‐1 LTE violations

• Short‐circuit analysis will be performed with representation of latest generation additions and retirements in the study area  

• To calculate the CLL and the year of need less than or equal to three years for thermal and voltage violations, the analysis will include Pilgrim station available for dispatch since their retirement date is June 1, 2019   

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Next Steps / Schedule

• Post the SEMA‐RI 2026 Needs Assessment Scope of Work report – Q4 2015

• Complete the SEMA‐RI 2026 Needs Assessment including critical load level analysis, present to PAC and post report – Q1 or Q2 2016

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APPENDIX

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Links to Previous SEMA‐RI Presentations and Reports• Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island 2026 Reassessment Initial Study File, 

posted to PAC website on October 19, 2015– https://smd.iso‐ne.com/operations‐services/ceii/pac/2015/10/sema_ri_2026_reassessment_initial_study_file_review.zip

• Newport Aquidneck Island Transmission Area Improvements – Needs and Preferred Solutions, presented to PAC on April 28, 2015

– https://smd.iso‐ne.com/planning/ceii/reports/2010s/archive/a7_newport_aquidneck_island_transmission_area_improvements_presentation.pdf

• Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island Area Needs Assessment 2 , presented to PAC on July 15, 2014

– https://smd.iso‐ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/pac/ceii/mtrls/2014/jul152014/a5_sema_ri_area_needs_2_n_1_1_rev1.pdf

• Brayton Point Non‐Price Retirement: Short Term Solutions presented to PAC on July 15, 2014

– https://smd.iso‐ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/pac/ceii/mtrls/2014/jul152014/a4_brayton_pt_npr_short_term_upgrades_rev1.pdf

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Links to Previous SEMA‐RI Presentations and Reports, Cont.

• Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island 2022 Area Needs Assessment II, presented to PAC on February 19, 2014 

– https://smd.iso‐ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/pac/ceii/mtrls/2014/feb192014/a8_sema_ri_needs_assessment.pdf

• Final Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island 2022 Needs Assessment – Scope of Work, posted to PAC on May 1, 2013

– https://smd.iso‐ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/pac/ceii/reports/2013/sema_ri_needs_sow_final.pdf

• Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island 2022 Area Needs Assessment I, presented to PAC on October 17, 2012

– https://smd.iso‐ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/pac/ceii/mtrls/2012/oct172012/sema_ri.pdf

• Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island 2021 Area Needs Assessment Scope of Work, presented to PAC on March 16, 2011 

– https://smd.iso‐ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/pac/ceii/mtrls/2014/feb192014/a9_swct_needs_assessment_2.pdf

• Additional Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island presentations and reports can be found at the following link

– http://www.iso‐ne.com/committees/planning/planning‐advisory

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