stage ii hydrology report for the macquarie river above lake river ... river catchment ab… ·...

Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment

Consultative Group Meeting

20 July 2011

STAGE II HYDROLOGY REPORT FOR

THE MACQUARIE RIVER ABOVE LAKE

RIVER CATCHMENT

Bryce Graham


•The Catchment

•Stream Flow Monitoring

•Stream Flow Pattern

•Catchment Model

•Water Management Regions

•Surface Water Yields

•Sustainable Allocation Limits

•Surface Water Allocations

•Combining Allocation Limits and Water Allocations

•Summary

OVERVIEW


MACQUARIE RIVER ABOVE LAKE RIVER CATCHMENT


MACQUARIE RIVER

ABOVE LAKE RIVER

CATCHMENT RAINFALL

ANNUAL AVERAGE 500 MM

IN LOW LYING AREAS TO

1200 MM IN HIGHLAND

CATCHMENT ANNUAL

AVERAGE 580 MM


CURRENT DPIPWE

OPERATED STREAM

GAUGES WITHIN THE

CATCHMENT


HISTORICAL & CURRENT GAUGING STATIONS

Site LocationCatchment

area (km2)Period of Record

8 Elizabeth River at Campbell Town 352.0 01/01/1922 – 30/09/1930

9 Elizabeth River at Lake Leake 64.8 01/08/1993 – 25/03/1997

20 Macquarie River at Ross 1497.0 02/10/1990 – 19/11/1993

83 Blackman River at Tunbridge 233.0 01/07/1925 – 31/08/1930

91 Isis River at Barton 241.0 26/05/1937 – 31/01/1947

259 Macquarie River at Morriston 387.0 23/04/1991 – 19/11/1993

18205 Birralee Creek u/s Kittys Rivulet 33.0 13/05/1971 - 29/08/1986

18206 Tooms River d/s Tooms Lake 60.2 03/07/1973 – current

18210 Macquarie River d/s Longmarsh Dam 89.7 22/05/1975 - 05/10/1990

18211 Elizabeth River d/s Lake Leake 69.7

06/09/1976 – 23/09/1996

and

03/03/2007 -- current

18217 Macquarie River at Trefusis 365.0 11/07/1979 – current

18228 Back Run Creek 16.0 02/07/1985 – 16/06/1994

18304 Macquarie River at Coburg 2683.0 09/01/1990 – 05/07/1994

18309 Macquarie River u/s Lake River (‘Coburg’) 2694.0 06/06/2007 – current

18310 Elizabeth River u/s Macquarie 399.95 01/01/1988 – 05/09/1995

18312Macquarie River d/s Elizabeth River

Junction (‘Morningside’)1953.0 24/01/1989 - current

18313Macquarie River u/s Elizabeth River

junction (‘Fosterville’)1525 26/07/2004 – current


0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

1.0

10

100

1000

10000

18217.1/100.00/1: MACQUARIE RIVER [AT TREFUSIS] (PTo(140.02,0)) - Flw Ml/day (Full period of record)

Flow (Ml/Day)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

1.0

10

100

1000

10000

18312.1/100.00/1: MACQUARIE RIVER [D/S ELIZABETH] (PTo(140.02,0)) - Flw Ml/day (Full period of record)

Flow (Ml/Day)

Gauging Station

Observed

Average Annual

Yield (ML)

Observed Median

Annual

Yield(ML/d)

Macquarie River at Trefusis 54789 37907

Macquarie at Morningside 118319 93766

OBSERVED FLOW AND YIELD @ GAUGING STATIONS


OBSERVED FLOW AT STREAM GAUGES (TREFUSIS)

1980 1990 2000 2010

1.0

10

100

1000

10000

Period(01/07/1979 @ 00:00:00 to 18/07/2011 @ 11:00:00)

18217.1/100.00/1: MACQUARIE RIVER [AT TREFUSIS] (PTo(140.02,0)) - Flw Ml/day

Const(10.000000)

Const(100.000000)

Const(1000.000000)


OBSERVED FLOW AT STREAM GAUGES (MORNINGSIDE)

1990 2000 2010

1.0

10

100

1000

10000

Period(01/01/1989 @ 00:00:00 to 18/07/2011 @ 11:00:00)

18312.1/100.00/1: MACQUARIE RIVER [D/S ELIZABETH] (PTo(140.02,0)) - Flw Ml/day

Const(10.000000)

Const(100.000000)

Const(1000.000000)


CATCHMENT WATER

BALANCE MODEL


WHY DO WE NEED A CATCHMENT MODEL??

Forecasts of future seasonal stream flows are valuable to a range of water

managers and users, including irrigators, urban and rural water supply

authorities, environmental managers and hydroelectricity generators.

Such forecasts can inform planning and management decisions

available water resources and to ensure security of supply.

While the catchment has a reasonable coverage of stream flow

monitoring sites, only a handful have a long term record and the

coverage across the catchment does not allow for yield

estimates for all rivers and streams.

Model can generate stream flow trends over long periods: into past and

into the future. Allows statistical analysis to be performed.

Macquarie River above Lake River catchment model is a simple rainfall-

runoff water balance model.

An assessment of the catchment tributary yields is required for water

management planning.


2001 May 2001 Jun 2001 Jul 2001 Aug 2001 Sep 2001 Oct 2001 Nov

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Period(01/05/2001 @ 00:00:00 to 01/11/2001 @ 00:00:00)

Trefusis Observed Flow (Ml/day)

Trefusis Modelled Flow (Ml/day)

Macquarie River catchment Hydrological Model

Hydrological Model Calibration


Poor, R2<0.65;

Fair, 0.65<R2<0.70;

Good, R2>0.70

2001 2002

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Period(01/01/2001 @ 00:00:00 to 01/01/2002 @ 00:00:00)

observed flow

current flow

natural flow

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 1001

10

100

1000

10000

100000

18312.1/100.00/1: MACQUARIE RIVER [D/S ELIZABETH] (PTo(140.02,0)) - Flw Ml/day (01/01/2001 to 01/01/2002)

C:\CATCHMENT_MODELS\Macquarie_Model_Upgrade\Output\report_calibration\morningside_J17_current_2001.tsf (01/01/2001 to 01/01/2002)

C:\CATCHMENT_MODELS\Macquarie_Model_Upgrade\Output\report_calibration\morningside_J17_natural_2001.tsf (01/01/2001 to 01/01/2002)

Flow (ML/day)

Flow (ML/day)

(a) Time Series Analysis (2001) at Morningside

(b) Duration Analysis (2001) at Morningside

Current flow Observed flow Natural flow

Monthly R2

Trefusis 0.77

Morningside 0.68

Hydrological Model Calibration


Regulated catchment, difficult to match

observed and modelled flow.

Water restrictions not taken into account.

Change in topography, lower part of

catchment low lying compared to upper

catchment.

Difficulties in understanding use patterns and

amounts of water extracted.


WATER MANAGEMENT

REGIONS


SURFACE WATER

YIELDS


Macquarie

above

Blackman

Blackman

Macquarie

above

Elizabeth

ElizabethMacquarie

above IsisIsis

Macquarie

above Lake

Jan 5270 2213 8347 2801 12651 1202 14598

Feb 2074 895 3509 1203 5678 532 6720

Mar 3152 941 4596 2127 7404 684 8247

Apr 2998 1211 4766 1988 7537 979 8669

May 8233 2258 12303 6363 21603 2655 25257

Jun 15788 3050 22675 12092 39057 4168 44291

Jul 16831 4446 26645 13568 47905 7003 57923

Aug 16223 4299 24978 13322 44505 6130 52709

Sep 13684 4037 22977 12576 43236 6770 53159

Oct 9113 2376 14368 7332 25650 3365 30748

Nov 6703 3178 11661 4500 18438 2481 21571

Dec 8180 3541 13259 5088 20812 2406 23737

Summer 21674 8801 34477 13207 54082 5803 61971

Winter 86575 23644 135607 69753 240394 32572 285658

Annual 108249 32444 170084 82961 294476 38374 347629

NATURAL FLOW YIELDS

Yields in ML


RELIABILITY OF YIELDS IN EACH WMR

Period Reliability

Macquarie

above

Blackman

Blackman

Macquarie

above

Elizabeth

ElizabethMacquarie

above IsisIsis

Macquarie

above Lake

Direct 80% (ML) 5,859 2,333 10,468 3,349 16,631 1,889 19,484

Direct 70% (ML) 7,501 3,107 11,499 4,568 18,265 2,099 20,858

Direct 60% (ML) 8,914 3,568 14,109 5,955 23,910 2,812 28,122

Direct 50% (ML) 10,789 4,397 17,352 6,456 29,010 3,401 33,459

Direct 40% (ML) 13,259 6,146 22,382 8,866 32,464 4,563 38,901

Direct 30% (ML) 20,876 9,490 37,160 13,565 59,006 4,856 68,221

Direct 20% (ML) 25,693 13,694 44,435 16,521 69,550 9,334 79,559

Direct EWR (ML) 3,399 1,725 6,324 1,963 10,305 1,232 12,421

Storage 80% (ML) 21,262 5,135 37,268 26,998 78,979 10,673 97,736

Storage 70% (ML) 27,373 6,528 46,562 35,612 102,921 15,801 130,567

Storage 60% (ML) 46,487 9,403 69,730 43,039 134,122 21,844 157,753

Storage 50% (ML) 60,295 14,518 98,131 53,957 183,808 27,533 224,267

Storage 40% (ML) 85,161 17,311 120,303 72,416 218,920 32,563 262,168

Storage 30% (ML) 121,255 25,962 178,385 101,275 330,645 41,606 393,110

Storage 20% (ML) 147,058 41,354 228,467 109,303 390,061 54,006 477,009

Storage EWR (ML) 11,261 2,580 20,262 11,589 37,279 3,985 45,276

Yields in ML


SUSTAINABLE ALLOCATION

LIMITS


SUSTAINABLE ALLOCATION LIMITS

Surety Level 5 Allocation Limit = 80% Reliability volume - Environmental Water Requirement (EWR).

Surety Level 6 Allocation Limit = 20% x (50% Reliability volume - 80% Reliability volume).

Period

Macquarie

above

Blackman

Blackman

Macquarie

above

Elizabeth

ElizabethMacquarie

above IsisIsis

Macquarie

above Lake

Direct (Dec - Apr)

Surety 5 Allocation

Limit (ML)2,460 609 4,145 1,386 6,326 657 7,063

Surety 6 Allocation

Limit (ML)986 413 1,377 621 2,476 302 2,795

Storage (May-Nov)

Surety 5 Allocation

Limit (ML)10,002 2,555 17,006 15,409 41,701 6,689 52,460

Surety 6 Allocation

Limit (ML)7,806 1,877 12,173 5,392 20,966 3,372 25,306


CLIMATE CHANGE


TAS SY AND CLIMATE FUTURES FOR TASMANIA

ProjectTasmanian Sustainable

Yields

Climate

Futures for

Tasmania

Scen C

Wet

Scen C

Mid

Scen C

Dry

Central

Estimate#

Projected %

change in future

run-off, relative to

historical record

6% -6% -11% 4%

Use Scenario C dry for future allocation, allocate up to 89%

of Sustainable Allocation Limits to ensure entitlements into

the future under a changing climate


SURFACE WATER

ALLOCATIONS


Macquarie above

BlackmanBlackman

Macquarie above

ElizabethElizabeth

Macquarie above Isis

IsisMacquarie above Lake

Total

Type SuretyAllocation

(ML)Allocation

(ML)Allocation

(ML)Allocation

(ML)Allocation

(ML)Allocation

(ML)Allocation

(ML) (ML)Direct 1 114.70 451.70 6.20 572.60

3 277.82 231.00 135.00 643.82

5 4,669.50 117.50 9,274.00 30.00 14,091.006 4,460.00 5,471.00 9,931.008 40.00 40.00

Total 9,129.50 510.02 0.00 15,427.70 6.20 165.00 40.00 25,278.42

Storage 1 25.00 75.00 5.00 8.25 113.25

5 4,204.50 2,203.50 210.00 628.00 4,792.00 618.00 915.08 13,571.086 0.007 1,624.00 1,624.00

8 15,691.00 9,750.50 1,851.90 4,184.80 8,460.50 3,054.00 6,288.00 49,280.70

Total 19,920.50 12,029.00 2,061.90 4,812.80 13,257.50 5,296.00 7,211.33 64,589.03

Unknown 100.00Overall Total 89,967.45


ALLOCATION LIMITS AND

WATER ALLOCATIONS


Management Zones

Allocation

Limit for S5

(ML)

Existing S5

Allocations

(ML)

Cumulative

S5

Allocations

(ML)

Macquarie above Blackman 2,460 4,670 4,670

Blackman 609 118 118

Macquarie above Elizabeth 4,145 0 4,788

Elizabeth 1,386 5,905 5,905

Macquarie above Isis 6,326 0 10,693

Isis 657 30 30

Macquarie above Lake 7,063 0 10,723

DIRECT TAKE PERIOD SURETY 5 LEVEL


DIRECT TAKE PERIOD SURETY 6 LEVEL

Management Zones

Allocation

Limit for S6

(ML)

Existing S6

Allocations

(ML)

Cumulative

S6

Allocations

(ML)

Macquarie above Blackman 986 4,460 4,460

Blackman 413 0 0


Elizabeth 621 5,471 5,471


Isis 302 0 0



Management Zones

Allocation

Limit for S5

(ML)

Existing S5

Allocations

(ML)

Cumulative

S5

Allocations

(ML)


Blackman 2,555 2,204 2,204


Elizabeth 15,409 9,708 9,708

Macquarie above Isis 41,701 4,792 25,758

Isis 6,689 618 618


STORAGE TAKE PERIOD SURETY 5 LEVEL


STORAGE TAKE PERIOD SURETY 6 LEVEL

Management Zones

Allocation

Limit for S6

(ML)

Existing S6

Allocations

(ML)

Cumulative

S6

Allocations

(ML)


Blackman 1,877 0 0


Elizabeth 5,392 5,471 5,471


Isis 3,372 0 0



SUMMARY

• the average annual runoff yield is 347,629 ML;

• 82% of this yield is generated during winter runoff;

• the current annual volume of water allocated is 89,967 ML;

• current allocations represent 26% an 35% of the average and median

annual yields respectively;

• the catchment is fully allocated during the direct take period;

• 40,544 ML of water is potentially available for allocation in the storage

period (May to November inclusive);

• a very large amount of water has been allocated at a Surety Levels 7

and 8 (51,005 ML);

• notwithstanding the potential availability of 40,544 ML in the storage

allocation period, the very large volume of water allocated at Surety

Levels 7 and 8 would need to be considered in regard to the extent to

which, and how, this water might be allocated.


QUESTIONS

stage ii hydrology report for the macquarie river above lake river ... river catchment ab… ·...

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