stat club 327 thomas february 18, 2015 bethany c. bray outreach director, the methodology center...
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The Cutting Edge of Design & Analysis:
Penn State’s Methodology Center
Stat Club
327 Thomas
February 18, 2015
Bethany C. Bray
Outreach Director, The Methodology Center
Research Assistant Professor, College of HHD
What is The Methodology Center?
Our research projects
What’s in it for you?Resources from The Methodology Center
Today’s talk
Advancing public health byimproving experimental design and data analysis◦ Substance use disorders◦ HIV◦ Prevention and treatment
Interdisciplinary, collaborative research ◦ Use best ideas from any field◦ True collaboration between methodology and application
What is The Methodology Center?
What is The Methodology Center?
1989: Methodology
Center Founded
1994: Linda Collins named Directo
r
1996: NIDA P50 Awarded
1997: 1st
Summer Institute
2001: 1st
NIDA P50
renewal
2004: Stephanie
Lanza named
Scientific Director
2005: 2nd
NIDA P50
renewal
2005: PAMT T32 Awarded
2007: 1st 1-credit course
What is The Methodology Center?2009: Linda Collins named
SPR President
2009: 1st
Green Team
in HHD
2010: 3rd
NIDA P50 renewal
2012: 1st
eNews
2013: Susan
Murphy named
MacArthur Fellow
2014: Bethany
Bray named
Outreach Director
2014: Susan
Murphy elected member of IOM
2014: Runze Li named “Highly Cited
Researcher”, named Willaman Professor
2014: New P50
Submitted
22 PhD-level researchers from 13 fields◦ Communication◦ Human Development◦ Engineering◦ Epidemiology◦ Psychology◦ Statistics◦ …and more!
17 at Penn State, 5 at U of Michigan
What is The Methodology Center?
A variety of support staff◦ Administration◦ Computer programming◦ Dissemination and outreach◦ Professional development◦ Scientific editing
What is The Methodology Center?
Interested in the social, behavioral, and health sciences
A variety of outlets for dissemination◦ Courses◦ Publications◦ Presentations◦ Seminars◦ Software (free, user-friendly, supported)
◦ Workshops
What is The Methodology Center?
Optimize behavioral interventions◦ Multiphase optimization strategy (MOST) is a
framework for engineering interventions in order to get the maximum impact from an intervention
Develop adaptive behavioral interventions◦ The
sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trial (SMART) helps build adaptive interventions so that treatments adapt to meet patients’ needs
What is The Methodology Center?
Understand complex longitudinal data ◦ Intensive longitudinal data (ILD) projects provide tools
like the time-varying effect model (TVEM) for analyzing complex data, like smartphone data
Infer causality◦ Causal inference projects develop methods for
inferring causality in situations where randomization is not possible, practical, or ethical
What is The Methodology Center?
Uncover population profiles◦ Latent class analysis (LCA) and
latent transition analysis (LTA) allow researchers to detect subgroups within a population
What is The Methodology Center?
Optimize behavioral interventions◦ Linda Collins (Center Director, HD FS)
◦ Acknowledge real world constraints◦ Create the best possible intervention◦ Build in efficiencies
Multiphase optimization strategy (MOST)
◦ Framework for optimization◦ Uses factorial experimental designs◦ Called for specifically in NIH PAs
Our research projects
Develop adaptive behavioral interventions◦ Susan Murphy (U of Michigan, Statistics)
◦ MacArthur Genius Grant◦ Intervention decisions: how and when to alter treatment
Sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trial (SMART)
◦ Design for building adaptive interventions◦ Test when to switch, how to switch, how to define
nonresponse◦ Called for specifically in NIH PAs
Our research projects
Intensive longitudinal data analysis ◦ Runze Li (Statistics)
◦ New forms of data need new analyses Smart phones, Biological/physiological devices
Time-varying effect model (TVEM)
◦ Extension of linear regression◦ Regression coefficients vary over time
e.g., how do effects of craving, mood, and self-efficacy vary over time as people try to quit smoking?
Our research projects
Infer causality◦ Donna Coffman (TMC)
◦ Sometimes, observational data is the only possible data to be collected
◦ Infer causality when randomization is broken or absent?
Propensity score-based approaches◦ e.g., HIV intervention for former prisoners targeted
risky beliefs (unprotected sex strengthens relationship) Beliefs cannot be randomized, examined if and how it worked
Our research projects
Uncover population profiles◦ Stephanie Lanza (Scientific Director)
◦ Bethany Bray (Outreach Director)
◦ Are there subgroups in the population that can be used to understand heterogeneity?
Latent class and latent transition analysis (LCA & LTA)
Our research projects
Some of our major LCA & LTA contributions…◦ LCA model selection and statistical power◦ Associations between covariates and classes in LCA◦ Associations between classes and outcomes in LCA◦ Casual effects of covariates in LCA◦ Causal effects of classes on outcomes in LCA◦ Changing class membership over time in LTA◦ Longitudinal patterns of change in RMLCA◦ Latent class moderators◦ Software development (SAS, Stata, R)
Our research projects
Software◦ LCA & LTA
SAS PROC LCA & PROC LTA, macros
Stata LCA plug-in
◦ TVEM SAS macro suite
◦ SAS, Stata, R, web applets, stand-alone products
Resources
Reading Lists FAQs Videos …and more!
Resources
Podcasts◦ Informal intros to new research◦ Practical how-to’s
Resources
Brown bag seminars
One-credit courses
Special Interest Groups (SIGs)
◦ complex data, causal inference, mixture modeling
Summer institute on innovative methods
Resources
Prevention & Methodology Training (PAMT)
◦ pre- and post-doctoral fellows◦ two mentors◦ methodology.psu.edu/pamt
Taste of Methodology◦ PhD required◦ 3-hour introduction to an advanced method
Resources
Consulting? HHD’s Methodology Consulting Group STAT Department’s Statistical Consulting Center
Resources
Step 1. Go to: http://methodology.psu.edu and sign up for the eNews
How do I get started?
Step 2. On the homepage, scroll down and register for the site so you can download software
How do I get started?
Bethany C. [email protected]/people/bbray
The Methodology Center204 E. Calder Way, Suite 400State College, PA 16801methodology.psu.edu
Thank you!