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Stock Market Handbook

Yardeni Research, Inc.

December 24, 2020

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Joe Abbott732-497-5306

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

December 24, 2020 / Stock Market Handbook www.yardeni.com


Historical Monthly Returns 1Bull Markets 2-4Bear Markets 5-7Bull/Bear Ratios of 1.0 or Less & Bull Markets 8Presidential Cycles 9-10Returns 11-12ISM Super Composite Index 13-14Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 500 15S&P 500 Sectors 16-20Selected Consumer Discretionary Industries 21-25Selected Consumer Staples Industries 26-28Selected Energy Industries 29-30Selected Financials Industries 31-32Selected Health Care Industries 33Selected Industrials & Computers Industries 34-36Selected Materials Industries 37-40Selected Transportation Industries 41Selected Utilities Industries 42Januaries & Annual S&P 500 Returns 43Dow Jones Index 44-45S&P 500 Forward P/E & Expected Inflation 46S&P 500 & Crisis 47S&P 500 Performance 48

Figure 1.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-80

-55

-30

-5

20

45

70

95

-80

-55

-30

-5

20

45

70

95

-27

S&P 500 INDEX: PERCENTAGE OF 1-MONTH HOLDING PERIODSUP OR DOWN FOR ALL YEARS 1921 - 2013*

Up Months

Down Months

(percent)


-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

3.8

2.7 3.03.6 3.5

3.0

4.43.9 3.5 3.7 3.7

2.8

-3.4 -3.1-2.5

-4.0 -4.1-3.6

-2.7-3.6 -4.1

-4.7-4.2

-3.2

S&P 500 INDEX: AVERAGE CHANGE OF 1-MONTH HOLDING PERIODSUP OR DOWN FOR ALL YEARS 1921 - 2013 Up Months

Down Months(percent)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-1.5

-1.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

-1.5

-1.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1.3

-0.2

0.5

1.3

-0.2

0.7

1.5

0.7

-1.2

0.40.6

1.5

S&P 500 INDEX: AVERAGE 1-MONTH NONANNUALIZEDCHANGE FOR ALL YEARS 1928-2012(percent)

Average gain

Average loss

* Excludes January of 1928, and data is through August 2012. No change (0.00%) month of September, 1979 counted as up month.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.

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Historical Monthly Returns

Page 1 / December 24, 2020 / Stock Market Handbook www.yardeni.com


Figure 2.

1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 19306

11

16

21

26

31

36

6

11

16

21

26

31

36T P T P T P

S&P 500 BULL MARKETS(ratio scale)

+46%19 months

+58%28 months

+173%41 months

+47%5 months

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1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 19404

9

14

19

24

29

343944

4

9

14

19

24

29

343944

T P T

+169%20 months

+132%23 months

yardeni.com

1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 19507

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25P T P T

+69%15 months

+75%30 months

+43%12 months

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Note: P/T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bull markets.

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Bull Markets



Figure 3.

1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 196015

21

27

33

39

45

51

57

636975

15

21

27

33

39

45

51

57

636975

P T P T P


+119%34 months

+56%19 months

yardeni.com

1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 197050

75

100

125

150

50

75

100

125

150P T P T

+39%14 months

+80%44 months

+33%11 months

+24%8 months

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1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198060

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140T P T P T

+51%11 months

+33%14 months

+54%9 months

+31%12 months

+23%6 months

+28%15 months


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Bull Markets



Figure 4.

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199090

130

170

210

250

290

330

370

410450

90

130

170

210

250

290

330

370

410450

P T P T P


+43%8 months

+229%60 months

+65%31 months

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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000280

400

520

640

760

880

1000

11201240136014801600

280

400

520

640

760

880

1000

11201240136014801600

P T

+166%43 months

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021600

1100

1600

2100

2600

3100

3600

4100

600

1100

1600

2100

2600

3100

3600

4100P T P T

+102%84 months

+401%131 months

12/24


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Bull Markets



Figure 5.

1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 19305

15

25

35

45

55

5

15

25

35

45

55T P T P T P

S&P 500 BEAR MARKETS(ratio scale)

-14.8% -9.4% -44.3%

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1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 19404

9

14

19

24

29

343944

4

9

14

19

24

29

343944

T P T

-83.0% -31.8% -54.5% -31.9%

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1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 19507

12

17

22

27

7

12

17

22

27P T P T

-31.9% -34.5% -13.1% -26.6% -20.6%

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.Note: P/T = peaks and troughs of business cycle. Shaded areas are bear markets.

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Bear Markets



Figure 6.

1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 196016

21

26

31

36

41

46

515661667176

16

21

26

31

36

41

46

515661667176

P T P T P


-14.8% -20.7%

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1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 197050

75

100

125

150

50

75

100

125

150P T P T

-28.0% -22.2% -36.1%

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1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198060

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140P T P T P T

-36.1% -48.2% -19.4% -17.1%


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Bear Markets



Figure 7.

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199090

150

210

270

330

390

450

510570

90

150

210

270

330

390

450

510570

P T P T P


-17.1% -27.1% -33.5% -19.9%

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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000280

400

520

640

760

880

1000

112012401360148016001720

280

400

520

640

760

880

1000

112012401360148016001720

P T

-19.9% -19.2%

-49.1%

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022600

1000

1400

1800

2200

2600

3000

34003800

600

1000

1400

1800

2200

2600

3000

34003800

P T P T

-49.1% -56.8% -19.4% -19.8% -33.9%

12/24


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Bear Markets



87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23200

600

1000

1400

1800

2200

2600

3000340038004200

200

600

1000

1400

1800

2200

2600

3000340038004200

S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*

(ratio scale)

12/24

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* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 8.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 231600

6600

11600

16600

21600

26600

31600

36600

1600

6600

11600

16600

21600

26600

31600

36600

DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*

(ratio scale)

12/24

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* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 9.

Bull/Bear Ratios of 1.0 or Less & Bull Markets



50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 2010

610

1210

1810

241030103610

10

610

1210

1810

241030103610

-6.6% -14.3 23.1 9.1 -11.4 -17.4 -11.5 -9.7 26.3 27.3 7.1 31.0 -13.0 3.0 23.5 29.6

S&P 500 INDEX & FIRST YEAR OF A PRESIDENT’S TERM: 1951-present

(Average = 6.0%, ratio scale)

Nov

Note: Shaded vertical lines are the first year of a President’s term. Data above timeline shows Dec/Dec percentage change using end of month data.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 10.

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 253

703

1403

2103280335034203

3

703

1403

2103280335034203

-28.5 -5.9 25.2 12.4 -11.9 21.8 45.0 38.1 -11.8 -13.1 -0.1 -29.7 1.1 14.8 14.6 -6.6 -1.5 26.7 -23.4 13.6 12.8 11.4

S&P 500 INDEX* & SECOND YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now

(average = 4.8%, ratio scale)

Nov

* End-of-month daily data through 12/31/2016.Note: Shaded areas are the second years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the second year using daily price dataSource: Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 11.

Presidential Cycles



25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 253

703

1403

2103280335034203

3

703

1403

2103280335034203

-47.1 41.4 -5.5 19.4 0.0 16.5 26.4 8.5 18.9 20.1 10.8 31.6 12.3 17.3 2.0 26.3 34.1 19.5 26.4 3.5 0.0 -0.7

S&P 500 INDEX* & THIRD YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now


Nov

* End-of-month daily data through 12/31/2016.Note: Shaded areas are the third years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the third year using daily price data.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 12.

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 253

703

1403

2103280335034203

3

703

1403

2103280335034203

-15.1 27.9 -15.3 13.8 -0.7 11.8 2.6 -3.0 13.0 7.7 15.8 19.1 25.8 1.4 12.4 4.5 20.3 -10.1 9.0 -38.5 13.4 9.5

S&P 500 INDEX* & FOURTH YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now


Nov

* End-of-month daily data through 12/31/2016.Note: Shaded areas are the fourth years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the fourth year using daily data.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 13.

Presidential Cycles




0

1

2

-1

0

1

2S&P 500 INDEX: average change each month 1946-2012 (67 years)

1.03%

-0.37%

1.31%1.43%

0.20%

0.02%

0.91%

-0.13%

-0.72%

0.91%

1.18%

1.83%

Note: Updated through August 2012.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 14.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0S&P 500 INDEX: average of gain years each month 1946-2012 (67 years)

4.02%

2.38%

3.19%

3.54%

2.95%

2.67%

4.07%

3.08%3.40%

3.84% 3.90%

2.99%


yardeni.com

Figure 15.

Returns



Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

-5.0

-4.5

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5S&P 500 INDEX: average of loss years each month 1946-2012 (67 years)

-3.87%

-3.19%

-2.28%

-2.89%-3.18%

-2.88% -2.77%

-4.08%-3.86%

-3.59%-3.29%

-2.10%

Note: Updated through July 2012.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 16.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

41

33

4445

37

3536

37

28

4041

51

S&P 500 INDEX: # of months up each month 1946-2012 (67 years)


yardeni.com

Figure 17.

Returns



1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201430

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140ISM SUPER COMPOSITE INDEX vs. CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX

ISM Super Composite Index*

Consumer Optimism Index**

* Sum of ISM manufacturing composite and ISM nonmanfacturing composite.** Average of Conference Board and University of Michigan measures.

Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the Conference Board and University of Michigan Survey Research Center.

yardeni.com

Figure 18.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

3500

3700

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Dec

NovCONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. S&P 500

Consumer Optimism Index*

S&P 500 Index

* Average of Conference Board and University of Michigan measures.Source: The Conference Board and University of Michigan Survey Research Center and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

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Figure 19.

ISM Super Composite Index



1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140ISM SUPER COMPOSITE INDEX vs. S&P 500 INDEX

ISM SuperComposite Index*

S&P 500 Index

* Sum of ISM manufacturing composite and ISM nonmanfacturing composite.Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 20.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

3500

3700

40

60

80

100

120

140

Nov

NovNATIONAL CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. S&P 500 INDEX

National Confidence Index:Average of COI* andISM Super Composite**

S&P 500 Index

** Sum of ISM manufacturing composite and ISM nonmanfacturing composite.* Average of Conference Board and University of Michigan measures.

Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM), The Conference Board, University of Michigan Survey Research Center and Standard & Poor’sCorporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 21.

ISM Super Composite Index



2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220102030405060708090100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250

20

30

40

50

60

70

10/13

12/19

YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX

Boom-Bust Barometer*

Consumer Comfort Index

* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.

yard

eni.c

om

Figure 22.

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2220

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

250

750

1250

1750

2250

2750

3250

3750

10/13

YRI FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR and S&P 500 INDEX

S&P 500 Index

YRI Fundamental StockMarket Indicator*

* Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims,four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

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Figure 23.

Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 500



70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

S&P 500 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(as a ratio of S&P 500) 12/25

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly. Monthlydata an average of Auto, Auto Parts, Building Materials, Footwear, Homebuilding, Household Furnishing, Leisure Time, Newspapers, Publishing,and Textile Apparel industry ratios.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 24.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

S&P 500 CONSUMER STAPLES(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly. Monthlydata an average of Alcoholic Beverage, Drug Store, Entertainment, Food, Food Retail, Household Product, Personal Care, Restaurant, Soft Drink, Tobacco,and TV industry ratios.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 25.

S&P 500 Sectors



70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

.45

.50

.55

.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

.45

.50

.55

S&P 500 ENERGY(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 26.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.1

.2

.3

.4

.1

.2

.3

.4

S&P 500 FINANCIALS(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


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Figure 27.

S&P 500 Sectors



78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

S&P 500 HEALTH CARE(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly. Monthlydata an average of Hospital Management, Medical Products, and Pharmaceutical industry ratios.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 28.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.15

.20

.25

.30

.15

.20

.25

.30

S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS(as a ratio of S&P 500) 12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 29.

S&P 500 Sectors



78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

S&P 500 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY(as a ratio of S&P 500) 12/25

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly. Monthlydata an average of Communication Equipment, Hardware, Instrumentation, Semiconductor, and Software industry ratios.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 30.

78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

S&P 500 MATERIALS(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly. Monthlydata an average of Aluminum, Chemicals, Diversified Chemicals, Gold, Iron & Steel, Metals Mining, Paper & Forest Products, and PaperContainers & Packaging industry ratios.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 31.

S&P 500 Sectors



80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

S&P 500 COMMUNICATION SERVICES(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Monthly data an average of Long Distance and Telephone industry ratios.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 32.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

S&P 500 UTILITIES(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 33.

S&P 500 Sectors



48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

.45

.50

.55

.60

.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

.45

.50

.55

.60

S&P 500 APPAREL ACCESSORIES & LUXURY GOODS(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


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Figure 34.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

S&P 500 AUTOMOBILES(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


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Figure 35.

Selected Consumer Discretionary Industries



48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

.45

.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

.45

S&P 500 BROADCASTING(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 36.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

S&P 500 DEPARTMENT STORES(as a ratio of S&P 500)

9/18


yardeni.com

Figure 37.




48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

S&P 500 FOOTWEAR(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 38.

66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

S&P 500 HOMEBUILDING(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 39.




48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

S&P 500 HOME FURNISHINGS(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 40.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

S&P 500 MOVIES & ENTERTAINMENT(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 41.




48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.04

.08

.12

.16

.20

.24

.28

.32

.36

.04

.08

.12

.16

.20

.24

.28

.32

.36

S&P 500 PUBLISHING(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 42.




60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

S&P 500 BREWERS(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 1989, weekly thereafter.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 43.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

S&P 500 HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 44.

Selected Consumer Staples Industries



60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

.1

.2

.3

.0

.1

.2

.3

S&P 500 PACKAGED FOODS(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 45.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

S&P 500 PERSONAL PRODUCTS(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 46.




60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

S&P 500 SOFT DRINKS(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 47.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

S&P 500 TOBACCO(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 48.




60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

S&P 500 INTEGRATED OIL & GAS(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 49.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

S&P 500 OIL & GAS DRILLING(as a ratio of S&P 500)

5/22


yard

eni.c

om

Figure 50.

Selected Energy Industries



60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

.5

1.0

1.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

S&P 500 OIL & GASEQUIPMENT & SERVICES

(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 51.

Selected Energy Industries



80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

S&P 500 BANK COMPOSITE(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 52.

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1640

90

140

190

240

290

340

390

440

40

90

140

190

240

290

340

390

440

S&P 500 BANK COMPOSITE INDEX

12/30

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Ratio scale. Monthly through December 1990, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 53.

Selected Financials Industries



48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.06

.08

.10

.12

.14

.16

.18

.20

.22

.24

.26

.28

.30

.32

.34

.36

.38

.40

.42

.44

.06

.08

.10

.12

.14

.16

.18

.20

.22

.24

.26

.28

.30

.32

.34

.36

.38

.40

.42

.44

S&P 500 LIFE & HEALTH INSURANCE(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 54.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.06

.08

.10

.12

.14

.16

.18

.20

.22

.24

.26

.28

.30

.32

.06

.08

.10

.12

.14

.16

.18

.20

.22

.24

.26

.28

.30

.32

S&P 500 PROPERTY & CASUALTY INSURANCE

(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 55.

Selected Financials Industries



60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

S&P 500 HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 56.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

S&P 500 PHARMACEUTICALS(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 57.

Selected Health Care Industries



48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

S&P 500 AEROSPACE/DEFENSE(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 58.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

.45

.50

.55

.60

.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

.45

.50

.55

.60

S&P 500 BUILDING PRODUCTS(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 59.

Selected Industrials & Computers Industries



48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

S&P 500 ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 60.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

S&P 500 MACHINERY(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 61.




60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

S&P 500 TECHNOLOGY HARDWARE, STORAGE & PERIPHERALS(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 62.




60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

S&P 500 ALUMINUM(as a ratio of S&P 500)

11/4


yardeni.com

Figure 63.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

.1

.2

.3

.0

.1

.2

.3

S&P 500 CONTAINERS & PACKAGING(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 64.

Selected Materials Industries



60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

.45

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

.45

S&P 500 DIVERSIFIED CHEMICALS(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 65.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

S&P 500 COPPER(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 66.




60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00

.15

.30

.45

.60

.75

.00

.15

.30

.45

.60

.75

S&P 500 GOLD(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 67.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

S&P 500 METAL & GLASS CONTAINERS(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 68.




60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

S&P 500 PAPER & FOREST PRODUCTS(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/18


yardeni.com

Figure 69.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

S&P 500 STEEL(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 70.




60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.00

.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

.00

.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

S&P 500 AIRLINES(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 71.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

0.0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

S&P 500 RAILROADS(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 72.

Selected Transportation Industries



60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

S&P 500 ELECTRIC UTILITIES(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 73.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

.45

.50

.55

.00

.05

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

.45

.50

.55

S&P 500 NATURAL GAS(as a ratio of S&P 500)

12/25


yardeni.com

Figure 74.

Selected Utilities Industries



60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40S&P 500 INDEX JANUARY EFFECT(percent change)

Entire Year

January

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 75.

Januaries & Annual S&P 500 Returns



20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 6840

140

240

340

440

540

640

7408409401040

40

140

240

340

440

540

640

740840940

1040DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE PRICE INDEX (1922-1969)(ratio scale)

Source: Dow Jones Inc.

yardeni.com

Figure 76.

20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE (1922-1969)(yearly percent change)


yardeni.com

Figure 77.

Dow Jones Index



80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200

10000

20000

30000

40000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

12/24

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE PRICE INDEX (1970-2012)(ratio scale)


Figure 78.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

12/23

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE (1970-2018)(yearly percent change)


yardeni.com

Figure 79.

Dow Jones Index



2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

8

10

12

14

16

5/22

12/28

S&P 500 FORWARD P/E AND EXPECTED INFLATION

Expected Inflationin 5-year TIPS*

S&P 500 Forward P/E

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.* Nominal minus TIPS yield.

yardeni.com

Figure 80.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

1

2

3

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

5/22

12/27

S&P 500 P/E vs. EXPECTED INFLATION

Expected Inflationin 10-year TIPS**

S&P 500 P/E*

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.** Nominal minus TIPS yield.

yardeni.com

Figure 81.

S&P 500 Forward P/E & Expected Inflation



60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 1850

350

650

950

1250

15501850215024502750

50

350

650

950

1250

15501850215024502750

S&P 500 & CRISES(ratio scale)

1973OilEmbargo

1974FranklinNational

1962CubanMissileCrisis

1970PennCentral

1979Oil Price Spike

1980SilverBubble

1982DrysdaleSecurities &Mexico Default

1984ContinentalIllinois

1987StockMarketCrash

1990PersianGulfCrisis

1990S&LCrisis

1994MexicanPesoCrisis

1997PacificRimCrisis

1998LTCM/RussianDefault Crisis

2001 WTCAttack

2002AccountingScandals

2007SubprimeMortgageMeltdown

2008 LehmanCollapse

2011Middle EastTurmoil.Japan NuclearDisaster.EuropeanSovereignDebt Crisis

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 82.

S&P 500 & Crisis



70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9050

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

C C C C C C C C C C

S&P 500 INDEX PERFORMANCE3/6/12 MONTHS AFTER FIRST FED RATE CUT

3-m -0.9% 6-m 10.4%12-m 11.5%

3-m -13.6% 6-m -13.9%12-m 13.6%

3-m -2.0% 6-m 1.0%12-m -2.7%

3-m 19.5% 6-m 34.0%12-m 34.4%

3-m -8.3% 6-m -5.8%12-m -16.0%

3-m 21.8% 6-m 29.4%12-m 40.9%

3-m 2.3% 6-m 11.7%12-m 13.8%

3-m 11.4% 6-m 16.0%12-m 17.5%

3-m 1.3% 6-m 4.6%12-m 11.0%

3-m 9.5% 6-m 8.6%12-m 13.9%

C= Federal funds rate first cuts in easing cycle. Boxes show 3/6/12 month percent changes in S&P 500 following first rate cut. From 1971 thru June 1981using monthly lowest value for S&P 500 during month of first rate cut.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yard

eni.c

om

Figure 83.

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

C C C C

S&P 500 INDEXPERFORMANCE

3/6/12 MONTHS AFTERFIRST FED RATE CUT

3-m 5.1% 6-m 11.3%12-m 17.8%

3-m 18.4% 6-m 24.9%12-m 20.9%

3-m -17.9%6-m -8.4%12-m 13.5%

3-m -4.3%6-m -12.4%12-m -20.6%

12/25

C= Federal funds rate first cuts in easing cycle. Boxes show 3/6/12 month percent changes in S&P 500 following first rate cut.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 84.

S&P 500 Performance



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stock market handbook - yardeni research · august 27, 2020 / stock market handbook yardeni...

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