stock markets and economic growth of india - a study on
TRANSCRIPT
International Research Journal
Vol. 7(4), 21-27, April (2018)
International Science Community Association
Review Paper
Stock markets and economic growth of India
M. Madhuri Devi1Dept. of Commerce, Bhilai Mahila
2Pt. Ravishankar Shukla University, Raipur, CG, India
AvailableReceived 15th February
Abstract
The two fold policies of Indian economic system i.e. fiscal and monetary policy has been resulted into the efficient survival
of economy of India after the inheritance of almost
NEP (liberalization, privatization and globalization) later on. Stock market is the most promising sector for raising the
financial system of the Indian economy. After the phase of liberal
competing with the economies of foreign countries. After the commencement of the stock market in the year 1875,
contributed significantly towards strengthening of the economy by proving as an
investors. Various indices of the stock market has presented as an effective tool for the purpose of measuring developments
of the economic performance. Frequency of financial crisis over India has affected adversely on the
resulting into risks and uncertainties of the stock market. But CAPM, APT,
management tools of stock market which has driven NIFTY,
changes had astonished the expansion of the Indian economy with the aspects like real estates, equities, bonds and
debentures. Gross Domestic Product is an important indicator of growth of an economy which has observed that the
recently developing economies (BRIC) countries are getting more powerful than the countries which have a strong
economic power traditionally such as economies of US and Germany. It has been predicted that the position of Indian
economy will be at the third largest level among the
appreciable aspect of the financial system which is a highly contributing factor for the economic growth. It has become a
magnificent job for new researchers to focus towards stock market a
ascertainable studies already exists in this particular field. This research paper is an effort
stock market developments in the growth of Indian economy. The secondary data source
BSE, old as well as recent researches studies has been adopted for this paper in order to explore some new horizons of this
aspect of the economy.
Keywords: Stock market, stock market developments, market capitalization,
BSE.
Introduction
The financial sector of India has experienced a convincing
anatomical changeover from the beginning of Indian economic
reforms since 1990s which improvised the
financial balances that enabled India transition from inward
looking and protectionist one to fully integrated in the world
trading system.
The capital market of India has been asssigned
state after the LPG policy and stock market lead a
role in financing corporate industries, encouragement
erpreneurship, mobilization and allocation of resources in order
to promote growth of economy. The Bombay Stock exchange
has established in the year 1875 with the specific objective of
taking financial industry of India to new heights and its
Journal of Social Sciences___________________________________
Association
tock markets and economic growth of India - a study on impact of market
capitalization on GDP
M. Madhuri Devi1 and Anjali Hinduja
2*
Dept. of Commerce, Bhilai Mahila Mahavidyalaya, Bhilai, CG, India
Pt. Ravishankar Shukla University, Raipur, CG, India
Available online at: www.isca.in, www.isca.me February 2018, revised 4th April 2018, accepted 12th April 2018
The two fold policies of Indian economic system i.e. fiscal and monetary policy has been resulted into the efficient survival
after the inheritance of almost collapsed economy from the British Regime which was assisted by the
NEP (liberalization, privatization and globalization) later on. Stock market is the most promising sector for raising the
financial system of the Indian economy. After the phase of liberalization stock market has proven as an effective tool for
competing with the economies of foreign countries. After the commencement of the stock market in the year 1875,
contributed significantly towards strengthening of the economy by proving as an emerging platform for savers and
investors. Various indices of the stock market has presented as an effective tool for the purpose of measuring developments
of the economic performance. Frequency of financial crisis over India has affected adversely on the
resulting into risks and uncertainties of the stock market. But CAPM, APT, Portfolio diversification acted as effective risk
management tools of stock market which has driven NIFTY, SENSEX towards the growth and its rapid and unpredicta
changes had astonished the expansion of the Indian economy with the aspects like real estates, equities, bonds and
debentures. Gross Domestic Product is an important indicator of growth of an economy which has observed that the
omies (BRIC) countries are getting more powerful than the countries which have a strong
economic power traditionally such as economies of US and Germany. It has been predicted that the position of Indian
economy will be at the third largest level among the globe after 2035. Stock market with its recent developments is an
appreciable aspect of the financial system which is a highly contributing factor for the economic growth. It has become a
magnificent job for new researchers to focus towards stock market aspects for the research works. A series of
ascertainable studies already exists in this particular field. This research paper is an effort to determine the contribution of
stock market developments in the growth of Indian economy. The secondary data sources such as bulletin reports of NSE,
BSE, old as well as recent researches studies has been adopted for this paper in order to explore some new horizons of this
Stock market, stock market developments, market capitalization, Indian economy, economic growth, NSE,
The financial sector of India has experienced a convincing
anatomical changeover from the beginning of Indian economic
reforms since 1990s which improvised the economical and
financial balances that enabled India transition from inward
looking and protectionist one to fully integrated in the world
The capital market of India has been asssigned quite governing
state after the LPG policy and stock market lead a significant
role in financing corporate industries, encouragement
erpreneurship, mobilization and allocation of resources in order
to promote growth of economy. The Bombay Stock exchange
as established in the year 1875 with the specific objective of
taking financial industry of India to new heights and its
enlargement at the same time Indian economy was facing the
competition of financial standards of the international market.
With innovative strategies and policies of BSE, the development
phase started. At present there are 23 stock exchanges are
running over India with appreciable infrastructure and great
functioning among which the leading exchanges are NSE and
BSE. Initiatives were taken and policies were formed during 80s
ensuring the financial stability, abstaining excessive fluctuations
and volatality in intrest rates without chocking availability of
credit to various sectors.
This moderated the threats resulting from deregulation a
globalisation of Indian market of finance which tends to assist
the sectors of the economy by allocating the scarce resources in
an effective way1.
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Int. Res. J. Social Sci.
21
study on impact of market
The two fold policies of Indian economic system i.e. fiscal and monetary policy has been resulted into the efficient survival
collapsed economy from the British Regime which was assisted by the
NEP (liberalization, privatization and globalization) later on. Stock market is the most promising sector for raising the
ization stock market has proven as an effective tool for
competing with the economies of foreign countries. After the commencement of the stock market in the year 1875, it has
emerging platform for savers and
investors. Various indices of the stock market has presented as an effective tool for the purpose of measuring developments
of the economic performance. Frequency of financial crisis over India has affected adversely on the financial industry
Portfolio diversification acted as effective risk
SENSEX towards the growth and its rapid and unpredictable
changes had astonished the expansion of the Indian economy with the aspects like real estates, equities, bonds and
debentures. Gross Domestic Product is an important indicator of growth of an economy which has observed that the
omies (BRIC) countries are getting more powerful than the countries which have a strong
economic power traditionally such as economies of US and Germany. It has been predicted that the position of Indian
globe after 2035. Stock market with its recent developments is an
appreciable aspect of the financial system which is a highly contributing factor for the economic growth. It has become a
spects for the research works. A series of
to determine the contribution of
s such as bulletin reports of NSE,
BSE, old as well as recent researches studies has been adopted for this paper in order to explore some new horizons of this
Indian economy, economic growth, NSE,
enlargement at the same time Indian economy was facing the
competition of financial standards of the international market.
ive strategies and policies of BSE, the development
phase started. At present there are 23 stock exchanges are
running over India with appreciable infrastructure and great
functioning among which the leading exchanges are NSE and
n and policies were formed during 80s
ensuring the financial stability, abstaining excessive fluctuations
and volatality in intrest rates without chocking availability of
This moderated the threats resulting from deregulation and
globalisation of Indian market of finance which tends to assist
the sectors of the economy by allocating the scarce resources in
International Research Journal of Social Sciences___________________________________________________ ISSN 2319–3565
Vol. 7(4), 21-27, April (2018) Int. Res. J. Social Sci.
International Science Community Association 22
Thereafter SEBI came into existence as the top regulating
authority tending to ensure disclosure and transparancy. As per
recent trends the expansion and diversification of the stock
market activities with the modernised technical advancements is
highly appreciable with the usage of electronic medium of
transactions and trading in recent years and thus after coping
with the adversities of the factors like demonetisations and GST,
the stock market is positively influencing the good resource
allocation, increase over national income as well as providing
financial assistance to the corporate sectors through funds and
incentives and therefore paving a way to the rebuilding growth
of economy in the form of growth of GDP rates which are
estimated to be more high in upcoming quarters of the financial
year.
Review of literature: It is a widely debated topic in the
researching field that the growth of an economy is driven by its
financial market or not which has promoted excellent factual
studies.
Pardy in his generative work Institutional Reform in Emerging
Securities Markets propounded that the capital markets are
tremendous factors of channelizing savings of domestic sectors
into the funds allocation to the deficit business units in countries
which are less developed2.
Equity markets and growth: Cross country evidence on timing
and outcomes measured the developments of the stock markets
on the basis of various parameters and argued the significant
relation between economic growth and developments of stock
markets with respect to emerging economies of 47 countries3.
Stock market development and economic growth: The case of
selected African countries have found a positive and significant
influence of the stock markets on the growing factors of
economies of the countries which comes under the category of
economy with upper middle income4.
Correlation and causality between Stock Market and Macro
Economic Variables in India: An Empirical Study revealed that
stock market can affect positively to economy but do not affect
much strongly to the real growth of GDP as there are only 2%
of the Indian population exists who are the investors of the stock
market5.
Anju Bala in her research paper “Indian Stock Market – Review
of Literature” has examined that the liquidity of stock market
has widely affected by the corporate listings on the stock
exchanges.
Elimination of risk element is not possible with the functioning
of the financial markets as fiscal deficit is prevalent but it can
compete over with opportunities by finding out the volatilities
and variations in the trends6.
Naik and Padhi had observed the positive contribution of the
Indian financial sector towards the relative growth of market
trends and the economy7.
Effect of stock market development on economic growth of
major South Asian and East Asian economies: A comparative
analysis revealed in the South Asian region economies the stock
market is affecting the economic growth more significantly8.
Objectives of the study: The primary objective of this research
paper is to determine the impact of Indian stock market
developments in the economic growth of the country. Under this
study the critical appraisal of economic growth in relation with
developments of the stock market and its resulting phenomenon
on the economic growth for upcoming years estimations have
been focused on and studied: i. To know the development trends
of stock market of India. ii. To know the economic growth of
the country is driven by the developments of the stock market or
not.
Methodology
Secondary sources of data such as reports and bulletins of RBI,
various stock exchanges Journals, websites of financial express
and economic times and various news stand has been used.
Reference contains links and websites for all the sources which
are used in the research. Market capitalization (MC), Total
value traded ratio (TVT) are used as independent variables for
reflecting developments of the stock market and Real Gross
Domestic Product ratio is used as variable of economic growth
of the country.
This study used data from the year 2000 to 2017 third quarters
to find out the impact of developments of stock market on the
economic growth of India taking the Indian market
capitalization to GDP (%).
The Indian economy was introduced with a number of financial
reforms in the period of 1980s with Globalization for the
purpose of attracting equity investment from the foreign
countries. For the implementation of new economic policy in
the developing countries it is quite essential to channelize the
funds from surplus units to the deficit units which can be done
through the stock market. In the Indian context the stock market
has played a vital role in the growth of economy to an extent.
Results and discussion
Stock market is a market that provides a framework for the
public companies to get their shares listed for the purpose of
trading. Stock market is subdivided into the primary market and
the secondary market.
Primary market facilitates the companies to raise funds from the
general public through initial public offering9. In stock
exchange stocks and other securities can also be traded through
stock brokers.
It is essential for stock to get listed on an exchange in order to
be bought and sold. Therefore it can be said a meeting place for
all buyers and sellers. Bombay Stock Exchange and the National
Stock Exchange are the main stock exchanges of India.
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Table-1: Main Stock Exchanges in India.
National stock exchange
Bombay Stock exchange
Calcutta stock exchange
Cochin stock exchange
Multi commodity stock exchange
Derivatives exchange
OTC exchange
Pune stock exchange
Interconnects exchange
Main indices of tracking stock markets: i.
shows overall performance of a stock market, ii. Sectoral
shows performance of a certain sector in economy like
technical, construction, finance, consumer products etc.
Figure-1: 1800s‘
1800's
•1854:Dalal street fixed as permanent location
•1875: BSE established as the native share and stock brokers association
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i. Benchmark Index-
shows overall performance of a stock market, ii. Sectoral Index-
shows performance of a certain sector in economy like
technical, construction, finance, consumer products etc.
Back in the 1990’s, every city had an Stock Exchange (Calcutta
Stock Exchange, Bombay Stock Exchange, Bangalore Stock
Exchange) etc. NSE broke the barrier of trading region
allowing traders to trade across regions which served as a big
boon to the trading community who instead of restricted to the
same region spread over widely, thereby giving them a bigger
exposure10
.
SENSEX and NIFTY: There are some of the bases such as
capitalization of market, type of industry a company belongs to
and size and number of the companies upon which the
companies are classified to form an Index. Index are the groups
formed by some of the common trait
the listed companies of the stock exchanges. BSE SENSEX (a
group of 30 stocks) and BSE 500 (a group of 500 stocks) are
fine examples of such Indexes. There are many such indices and
are not limited to only SENSEX and the NIFTY. Nif
major index and similar is the BSE Small cap and BSE Midcap.
Index values are calculated by using the value the grouped
values of the stocks. Change in the price of the stocks thus
affects the index values also11
. Therefore an index is taken a
the indicator of market changes.
Periodical Developments in Indian stock markets since 1800 .
Figure-2: Stock market growth indices.
stock brokers association
1900's
•1956: BSE became the 1st stock exchange recognized under securities contract act
•1993: NSE recognized as the stock exchange
2000's
•2000: Commencement of internet trading at NSE
•2001: BSE commences derivatives trading
Market Capitalization
(BSE smallcaps NSE midcap)
Sector/ Industry (BSE bankex
CNX IT)
Broad Market (BSE 500, CNX
100)
Free Float Capitalization
(BSE Sensex, CNX
Nifty)
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Back in the 1990’s, every city had an Stock Exchange (Calcutta
Stock Exchange, Bombay Stock Exchange, Bangalore Stock
broke the barrier of trading region-wise by
allowing traders to trade across regions which served as a big
boon to the trading community who instead of restricted to the
same region spread over widely, thereby giving them a bigger
There are some of the bases such as
capitalization of market, type of industry a company belongs to
and size and number of the companies upon which the
companies are classified to form an Index. Index are the groups
formed by some of the common traits of companies among all
the listed companies of the stock exchanges. BSE SENSEX (a
group of 30 stocks) and BSE 500 (a group of 500 stocks) are
fine examples of such Indexes. There are many such indices and
are not limited to only SENSEX and the NIFTY. Nifty Bank is a
major index and similar is the BSE Small cap and BSE Midcap.
Index values are calculated by using the value the grouped
values of the stocks. Change in the price of the stocks thus
. Therefore an index is taken as
2000: Commencement of internet trading at
2001: BSE commences derivatives trading
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Some of the important Indian indices are: i. Benchmark indices
- BSE SENSEX and NSE Nifty, ii. Sectoral indices - BSE
BANKEX and CNX IT, iii. Market capitalization based indices
- BSE Smallcap and BSE Midcap, iv. Broad-market indices -
BSE 100 and BSE 500.
Recent develpoments and newly introduced changes to
S tock Market: i. Stock market recent developments are related
with some of the IT developments easing the stock markets are:
subscriptions such as cellular mobiles, telephones, broad bands,
wired and individual internet usage etc. ii. Stock market integral
developments are: Equity market turnover, stock market value
traded to GDP market capitalization to GDP, accessing with
ease to local equity market.
Developmental trends of Indian Securities market: Corporate
securities market, SEBI act 1992, Screen based trading,
Reduction of trading cycle, Equity derivatives, Risk
management, Short selling, Cross margining, Research in
securities market, Testing and certifications, Demutualization,
Dematerialization, Clearing corporation, Investors protection,
Globalization, Launch of VIX 2, Direct market access, Launch
of (lending and borrowing schemes, currency futures, intrest
rate futures), ASBA and ICDR regulations 2009.
Economic Growth: Economic growth refers to the incremental
inflation adapted goods and services values prevalent in the
market over a time period in the economy. Usually it is
measured in the terms of increasing (%) rate in real GDP, as
GDP is important indicator of strength of a country and a key
indicator of the economic growth.
India GDP Annual Growth Rate: Through the view of
occupational structure, about 60% of the total GDP contribution
has been observed from the most fast growing territory sector of
the economy which provides social as well as business assisting
services (financing, insurance, banking, real estate, trade, hotels,
transport, telecom, communication etc.). The primary sector
consisting of genetic and extracting industries like forestry,
agriculture, mining, fishing contributes 12% in the GDP and
employees around 60% of the labor force. Manufacturing and
construction accounts for 15% in total GDP and other 5% is
contributed through water and gas supplies12
.
In the recent context of year 2017 the state of expansion of the
Indian economy was 6.3 percent in the second last quarter of
2017 and a very low as 5.7 percent in the previous quarter
noticed as the lowest percent in last three years while the
estimated market expectations was 6.4 percent. Both the sectors
of economy i.e. public and private sector showed a slowdown in
the growth of inventories and investments. The averaged GDP is
determined 6.12% in the period of year 1951 to 2017 in which
the highest GDP as 11.40% has been recorded in the 2010 first
quarter and as low as -5.20% in the fourth quarter of the year
1979.
Figure-3: India GDP Annual Growth Rate (Quarterly) Year 2015 to 2017
13.
6
7.47
6.8
9.2
6.1
7.67.9
5.7
8.4
7.5
6.3
Year 2015 Year 2016 Year 2017
Jan-March April-June July-Sep Oct-Dec
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Interpretation: The above graph shows India’s annual GDP
growth rate from the financial year 2015 to financial year 2017
on the quarterly basis predicting as the 6.3% GDP growth rate in
the last quarter of financial year 2017.
Table-2: Chart showing 10 years periodical GDP growth rates
with estimates till financial year 202114
.
Years GDP Growth rates (%)
2012 5.46
2013 6.39
2014 7.51
2015 8.01
2016 7.11
2017 6.72
2018* 7.37
2019* 7.8
2020* 7.93
2021* 8.1
Interpretation: The above table shows the raised growth in
GDP rates from the year 2012 to 2016 but a slight downfall in
2017 as well as estimate to rise up from the year 2018 and at the
peack of this decade in 2021 (*refers to estimates).
Stock Market and Economy: There exists a two way
relationship of stock market and economy.
Way how the developments of the stock market affects
economy of India: i. Consumer: “wealth effect” applies here as
increase in the price of stocks also increase the consumers
wealth resulting into the higher spending level. ii. Business:
“tobin q effect” applies here as the corporate sector also raise an
increased level of funds per share to finance the investment
projects if the stock market touches a higher price extent15
.
Beside several other factors, Stock markets are the significant
factors that tends to promote the economic growth of the
country. Rate of interest also affects the economy because
borrowing costs will increase with the higher rate of interest.
Falls in the interest rates can stimulates the growth of economy
as slowing down of the business investments and consumers
spending reduces economic growth.
Role of Stock Markets in the Economic Growth of India are
as follows: The role of stock market in the process of economic
growth is quite significant as the stock market is the creator of
liquidity in the economic flows. Liquidity of the financial
market instruments was an enhancing aspect of innovative field
during the earlier face of Industrial Revolution in the India.
Interpretation: The Table-3 shows the changes and percentage
changes in the SENSEX values over the last decade with
relation to its impact on GDP as market capitalization GDP
ratio.
Table-3: The changes in stockmarket performance on the basis of sensex values of period of 10 years with (%) changes and market
capitaisation GDP ratio16
.
Financial Year Change in SENSEX Value % Change Midcap/GDP Ratio Below/Above average
FY07 1792.14 15.89 83 Above
FY08 2572.34 19.68 103 Above
FY09 -5918.12 -37.87 55 Below
FY10 7625.78 77.01 95 Above
FY11 1752.6 9.91 88 Above
FY12 -2016.19 -10.38 71 Below
FY13 1431.57 8.23 64 Above
FY14 3521.52 18.67 66 Above
FY15 5511.05 24.55 81 Above
FY16 -2918.28 -10.33 69 Below
FY17 4350.86 17.22 80 Above
International Research Journal of Social Sciences__
Vol. 7(4), 21-27, April (2018)
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Figure-4: Market capitalization GDP ratio (including all stock exchanges of India)
Interpretation: The above figure represents the percentage of
market capitalization to the GDP ratio of a period of seventeen
years from the year 2000 to year 2017.
Conclusion
The schedule of financial reforms of capital market reform was
an integral part of Indian economy since the formation of
planning commission taken place. It is generally accepted that
the advancement of the stock market is recognized vital to
national financial extension as it: i. Provides an additional
channel for mobilizing and encouraging private economical
savings. ii. Arrange productivity of the investments through
allocation of fundamental capital. iii. Access managerial control
through the market for commercial discipline. Indian stock
markets have grown widely in terms of market turnover ratio
andcapitalization18.
The financial and money market of India has strengthen over a
years. The numbers of stock exchanges rise out of 8 in 1971 to 9
in 1980 to 21 in 1993 and further to 23 as on year 2000. The
number of listed companies also increased over the identical
time 1,599 to 9,871 in the year 2000. BSE market capitalization
GDP ratio at current market figure also developed in large from
around 28 percent in thenew1990s to 45 percent at the end of
the nintees after marking a fall in certain interceding generation.
In the terms of market capitalization India ranked twenty
over the globe. 19th in the change of total value traded and
second in the terms of listed domestic companies. Though the
financial and money market of India established more than a
century ago, it continued to be quite passive from the post
independence periods of early nintees with only 4 percent
capitalization ratio (market capitalization to GDP)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
3223 25
4654
67
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Market capitalization GDP ratio (including all stock exchanges of India)
represents the percentage of
ratio of a period of seventeen
The schedule of financial reforms of capital market reform was
an integral part of Indian economy since the formation of
planning commission taken place. It is generally accepted that
the advancement of the stock market is recognized vital to
ncial extension as it: i. Provides an additional
channel for mobilizing and encouraging private economical
ii. Arrange productivity of the investments through
allocation of fundamental capital. iii. Access managerial control
commercial discipline. Indian stock
markets have grown widely in terms of market turnover ratio
The financial and money market of India has strengthen over a
years. The numbers of stock exchanges rise out of 8 in 1971 to 9
21 in 1993 and further to 23 as on year 2000. The
number of listed companies also increased over the identical
time 1,599 to 9,871 in the year 2000. BSE market capitalization
GDP ratio at current market figure also developed in large from
t in thenew1990s to 45 percent at the end of
the nintees after marking a fall in certain interceding generation.
In the terms of market capitalization India ranked twenty-first
over the globe. 19th in the change of total value traded and
ms of listed domestic companies. Though the
financial and money market of India established more than a
century ago, it continued to be quite passive from the post-
independence periods of early nintees with only 4 percent
alization to GDP)19
.
However during last two decades the activities of the stock
market have undergone wide changes with the increased
demand of the capital which has been resulted into the
improvement and developments in the stock markets. It can be
recognized that till the nintees institutional term lending acted as
the primary source of Industrial finance in India. The financial
institutional’s system of raising money through government
guaranteed bonds provided as a cushion to the corporates to
absorb relatively high risks of implementing new projects. It is
overwhelmingly concluded that that the Indian stock market
with its continuing developments is acting as an engine for the
economic growth of the country and the market regulators and
economic policymakers should focus their attention towards
establishing and sustaining a dynamic capital market in order to
foster a sound and continued economic growth.
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Market Cap To GDP Ratio
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Int. Res. J. Social Sci.
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Market capitalization GDP ratio (including all stock exchanges of India)
17.
However during last two decades the activities of the stock
market have undergone wide changes with the increased
demand of the capital which has been resulted into the
improvement and developments in the stock markets. It can be
nized that till the nintees institutional term lending acted as
the primary source of Industrial finance in India. The financial
institutional’s system of raising money through government
guaranteed bonds provided as a cushion to the corporates to
relatively high risks of implementing new projects. It is
overwhelmingly concluded that that the Indian stock market
with its continuing developments is acting as an engine for the
economic growth of the country and the market regulators and
cymakers should focus their attention towards
establishing and sustaining a dynamic capital market in order to
foster a sound and continued economic growth.
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International Science Community Association 27
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