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Strategic Debate 2 - Defining the Transition to a Sustainable Bioeconomy
Gunter Pauli, ZERI Initiative & Novamont Francois Houllier, French National Institute for Agricultural Research Amit Kumar, TERI University Maximo Torero, International Food Policy Research Institute Adrian Rodríguez, UN ECLAC Chairs: Franz Fischler, European Forum Alpbach
Inge Paulini, German Advisory Council on Global Change
Mapping Bioeconomy scientific domains: a still young and evolutive scientific concept
Plant Sciences & Biotechnologies
Social & Health Sciences
Forest & Bioenergy & Environmental Sciences
Applied Microbiology & Biotechnology
Chemistry
Processes & Engineering
Renewables: Role of
Bioenergy
Amit Kumar TERI University
India
Global scenario
Estimated Renewable Energy Share of Global Final Energy Consumption, 2013
….Global scenario
3.2 billion people relying on traditional biomass for
cooking and heating.
….Global scenario
Global new investments by sector, 2014, and growth on 2013, $BN Source: UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Indian scenario
Oil import @ 83% of domestic requirements constitutes
about 32% of total imports Source: https://data.gov.in/catalog/importexport-crude-oil-and-petroleum-products
Impact
• Transition to modern bio-fuels addresses the
key cornerstones of renewable energy: – Energy security
– Energy independence
– Climate change mitigation
• Help achieve SDGs
• High potential of local employment generation
– Arresting rural – urban migration
• Overall economic development
Sustainability • Optimal utilization of land
– Focus on use of wastelands
– Suitable plant varieties
– Multi-cropping
• Increased use of agri-residues, alternate feedstock, and
waste streams from different sectors
– Appropriate conversion technologies, including those capable to
handle multiple feedstock
• Employing only non-edible crop/oil seed varieties
• Less resource-intensive feedstock production and
processing
….Sustainability
• Much higher investments in sectoral and
multidisciplinary R&D programmes
• Focus on complete value chain
• Balance economic, social and environmental
factors – Income creation along the value chain for rural
economies
Thank You!
www.teriuniversity.org
www.teriin.org
Transition to a Sustainable Bioeconomy
Maximo Torero ([email protected])
Global Bioeconomy Summit ( 25-26th of November 2015, Berlin )
GLOBAL CHALLENGE
Source: Johan Rockstrom: Let the environment guide our development
Growing Human
Pressure
Climate change
Ecosystem decline
Surprise
Bioeconomy
DEFINITION
Bioeconomy refers to all economic activity derived from scientific and research activity
focused on biotechnology. In other words, understanding mechanisms and processes at the
genetic and molecular levels and applying this understanding to creating or improving
industrial processes.
4
Bigger population in urban areas will demand more and better food
36%
POPULATION GROWTH Change in population by
region 2010-2100 (millions)
182 millions
97 millions
-‐63 millions
2,552 millions
432 millions
29 millions
Africa: Younger
Asia and Europe: Older
Source:UN 2011
Challenge 1: Improve efficiency or shift of
potential frontier
STOCHASTIC PROFIT FRONTIER
C
ProducOon of maize
ProducOon of wheat
FronOer of possibiliOes of producOon
FronOer of possibiliOes of producOon increases
Challenge 2: We need to value externalities positive
or negative
Pricing water
WATER STRESS RISK
2.5
US$9.4 TRILLION
Source: Veolia Water & IFPRI 2011.
BILLION PEOPLE
TODAY Total popula<on living in water scarce areas
Global GDP generated in water scarce regions
US$63 TRILLION
Total popula<on living in water scarce areas
4.7
BILLION PEOPLE
90%
570%
By 2050
Global GDP generated in water scarce regions
52% 49% 45%
36% 39% 22%
popula<on grain produc<on
global GDP
A CONTINUOUS TREND TOWARDS INTERNATIONALIZATION OF FOOD MARKETS
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
18.2%
13.9% 12.3%
19.1%
16.1%
Share of produced calories crossing an internaOonal border
Are we pricing the water?
We need to recognize carbon as a global externality and value carbon through carbon trade
Challenge 3: Is not only supply!
ADDITIONAL DEMAND FOR BIOMASS
Growing population
Growing income
Need for alternative to fossil carbon chains
Increased producOon
Reduced supply for final consumers
Reduced supply for intermediate consumers
New Demand for crops
Increase in yield and
area, extension of
cropland, and reducOon
of other crops
GROWING DEMAND
Addi<onal food demand
Addi<onal Bioenergy demand
Addi<onal industrial
Hunger?
SubsOtuOon effects
Feed
Other sectors (agrifood,
cosmeOcs)
SubsOtuOon effects Biomass demand
OVERALL IMPACT
By 2020: illustraOon with biofuels 1st generaOon
23,2%
22,1%
2,7%
10,0%
43,3%
15,7%
15,0%
10,1%
2,0%
13,9%
1,4%
2,4%
7,7%
1,7%
0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0% 30,0% 35,0% 40,0% 45,0%
MAIZE
SUGAR CROPS
WHEAT
PALM OIL
RAPESEED OIL
SOYBEAN OIL
SUNFLOWER OIL
Share of the crop (all use) in total HARVESTED cropland
ProducOon devoted to biofuels
Source: Laborde, 2011 But only 16% of world area devoted to biofuels
SUPPLY AND DEMAN
S D
Challenge 4: Bioeconomy needs to be inclusive
SUPPLY AND DEMAN
• Huge opportunity for smallholders
• Huge potenOal for contract farming
• But we need an appropriate regulaOon framework
Final Remarks
Agriculture is criOcal for
Employment
Economic development
Food Security
Important changes in key drivers
Demand drivers changing rapidly
Land constraints
Water constrains
Climate change
Bioeconomy offers a huge
opportunity
But we need proper regulatory
environment
Gains in efficiency and potenOal
Increase value added
SAI
Bioeconomy needs to be inclusive
Thanks!
Berlin Congress Center -‐ 25 to 26 November Berlin, Germany
Strategic Debate II Defining the Transi@on to a Sustainable Bioeconomy
Santiago 7 y 8 octubre de 2015
Report from the Interna@onal Conference La#n America and the Caribbean Bioeconomy 2015
Adrián G. Rodríguez
UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean
Adequacy of the framework for development and innova@on policies in La@n America
• There is significant poten@al for the development of the bioeconomy in La@n America and the Caribbean (LAC). – Biomass produc-on, agricultural waste biomass, biodiversity
• Not a single bioeconomy, but many possible LAC bioeconomies
• The bioeconomy and other development policies (e.g. innova@on, economic diversifica@on)
• Consistency with integra@ve policy approaches (e.g. WEF Nexus, Sustainable Food Systems)
• The bioeconomy approach and the 2030 Development Agenda • The bioeconomy and SDGs • The bioeconomy and INDCs to UNFCC
Current situa@on of the bioeconomy in La@n America
• Enabling policy frameworks are in place or emerging, although not termed as bioeconomy (except in Argen@na). – Bioenergy (Brasil) – Innova-on policies (Argen-na, Chile, Costa Rica, Brazil, Uruguay) – Biotechnology policies (Cuba, Uruguay) – Healthy Food Programs (e.g. Chile)
• There are on-‐going public and private ini@a@ves – Bioenergy (Brazil, Argen-na, Chile) – Biotechnology in agriculture (Argen-na, Brazil, Cuba, Mexico) – Bioproducts (Costa Rica, Colombia, Mexico) – Environmental services (Costa Rica)
Unveiling the poten@al of the bioeconomy in La@n America
• Adequate regulatory frameworks (eg. bio-‐safety/bio-‐risk, access to gene@c resources, GMOs, smart grids, property rights, etc.)
• Ar@cula@on of the policy ini@a@ves already in place (e.g. R&D+I in fields such as clean non-‐fossil energy, agricultural biotechnology, human and animal health, non-‐carbon agriculture, payments for ecosystem services, efficiency and sustainability of the food system).
• Be[er coordina@on of scien@fic and technological capaci@es that already exist in the countries (Public-‐Private-‐Kowledge)
• Policies for bioeconomic SMEs (e.g. crea@ng capaci@es, compe@@on -‐ entry to concentrated markets, adequate financing for innova@ve start-‐ups).
Other issues
• Promo@ng policy dialogue among public and private bioeconomy stakeholders;
• Strengthening societal understanding of the poten@al of the bioeconomy and bioeconomic growth for inclusive, compe@@ve and sustainable development;
• Systema@zing and exchanging successful bioeconomy experiences, especially on market and business development, public-‐private collabora@on, university-‐business collabora@on;
• Evalua@ng bioeconomy pathways (i.e. the bioeconomies)
• Bringing the bioeconomy to higher policy levels, strengthening its contribu@ons to a de-‐carbonized economy, a be[er environment and more inclusive socie@es.
Thank you!
The bioeconomy and the 2030 Development Agena