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Strategic Implications of
Demographic Change in AsiaAnalysis based on the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects
Presentation at the U.S. Naval War College, Newport, RI, 25 May 2012
Gerhard K. Heilig
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)Population Division - Population Estimates and Projections Section
www.unpopulation.org
Updated: 6 July 2012
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The author is Chief of the Population Estimates and Projections Section at the United Nations Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA).
The presentation was given at the conference on “Demographic Decline in Asia and the Future of Regional Security” at the U.S. Naval War College, 25-26 May, 2012, Newport, RI
Disclaimer:
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations. The presentation’s content has not been formally edited and cleared by the United Nations. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this presentation do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning
the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
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0Population and Security Risks: Popular arguments
population growth leads to environmental degradation, land-shortage, or hunger, which triggers conflict over scarce resources
excess of boys over girls (“Asia’s male preference”) creates male gangs who are more willing to go to war
young populations have more conflicts: “youthful hormones” trigger aggression; ageing populations are more “peaceful”;
fertility decline reduces “surplus sons” that could be more easily acceptable (conflict reduction of China’s “single child policy”)
population decline in rich societies invites aggression and creates “undefended wealth”
Demography might affect security because …
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0Population and Security Risks
population growth leads to environmental degradation, land-shortage, or hunger, which triggers conflict over scarce resources
excess of boys over girls (“Asia’s male preference”) creates male gangs who are more willing to go to war
young populations have more conflicts: “youthful hormones” trigger aggression; ageing populations are more “peaceful”;
fertility decline reduces “surplus sons” that could be more easily acceptable (conflict reduction of China’s single child policy)
population decline in rich societies invites aggression and creates “undefended wealth”
Demography might affect security because …
These arguments are all questionable!
Demography can affect how governments respond to conflicts –
how they shape conflicts. Demography usually does not explain
why and when conflicts arise.
The following model shows that a country’s demographic situation
is only one of many context factors that may shape a conflict.
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0Population and (International) Conflict
Gain or preserve a
position of power(political superiority)
DOMINANCE
Gain or preserve
wealth (economic
advantage)
GREED
Ideological, religious
or ethical fanatismRAGE
Adaptation
“Diplomacy”Goal Attainment
“War”
Integration
“Institutionalization”Latency
“Cultural Infiltration”
1. Population: Size / Distribution / Concentration / Structure2. Geography / Natural Environment: Location / Resources 3. Economic System: Market / Command & Control / Mixed4. Political System: Democracy / Gerontocracy / Dictatorship
Context
Factors
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0Population and Conflict: A basic model
Ultimate drivers (inner circles in previous slide): desire to gain or preserve a position of power / dominance
desire to gain or preserve an economic advantage
desire to gain dominance with, or preserve, particular ideas(political or economic ideology, ethnic identity, religious belief)
Principal types of response: Adaptation: Diplomacy, contain conflict by adjusting to the situation
Goal Attainment: Wage war (only chose, when sure to win!); eliminate threat
Integration: “Institutionalize” adverse relationship (Example: “Cold War”)
Latency: Infiltrate culture of adversary; fight “from within”; win “cold war” with “blue jeans and rock music”, convince adversary that your values are better
Context factors:Population: Size, (global) distribution, concentration (urbanization), (age) structure
Geography / Natural Environment: Location / topography / climate / natural resources
Economic System: Market, command & control, mixed, integration into global economy
Political System: Democracy / gerontocracy / dictatorship; stable / vulnerable
To better understand the relationship between population and conflict it is useful to distinguish (at least) three layers:
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0Population and Conflict
There is little evidence that demographic factors trigger
conflicts, but it is quite certain that they can shape the way how conflicts are carried out by adversaries.
Four demographic characteristics (population size, global population balance, urbanization, and population
age structure) are most relevant in that context.
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Absolute numbers (population size)
Distribution (global balance)
Concentration (urbanization)
Structure (population ageing)
1
2
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How does Demography shape conflicts?
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1Numbers
How does Demography shape conflicts?
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Total Population by Variant, 1950-2100
27 Billion
10 Billion
16 Billion
6 Billion
Bill
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s
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Change in Population: 1950-2100 (millions) 1
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1Change in Population: 2010-2100 (millions)
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Total Population: 1950-2100 (millions) 1
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have a higher potential for (economic, political and military)
supremacy: population-rich countries can become economic, political or military super-powers with the right economic, political and military development strategySmall countries will never become major political, economic or military players, no matter what they do.
Scale matters! Nigeria, Brazil or Pakistan could become major (economic and military) powers in the future.
information gathering will likely be modified for very populous adversaries: intelligence will be more technology-oriented, needs better raster and better analytics to avoid information overload
conflict strategy will likely be more diversity-conscious: large populations are usually much less homogenous than small nations
Very large populations (hundreds of millions of people) …
How does Population Size shape conflicts? 1
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2Distribution (global)
How does Demography shape conflicts?
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Total Population by Major Area, 1950-2100
9.1%
35.3%
21.6%
6.7%
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Changes in world population 2
21.6% 6.7%Europe
9.1% 35.3%Africa
Share of world population (percent)
1950 2100
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
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affect military technology: more maritime technology, long-distance capabilities, climate-adjusted capabilities (deserts)
affect military supply logistics: long-distance transport, difficult terrain, lacking infrastructure
create language barriers: Asia and Africa combined have hundreds of languages
Conflicts are where the people are or where they have their interests (conflicts will likely move to Asia and Africa)
The global shift of population centers to Asia and Africa will …
How does Population Distribution shape conflicts? 1
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3Concentration
How does Demography shape conflicts?
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012): World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York
Urban Population Change: 2010 - 2100 3
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Urban Concentration 3
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012): World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York
World: Mega-Cities with 10+ Million Inhabitants
Number
3
Population (millions)
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affect military technology: urban combat, body protection, communication capabilities
Urbanization increases possibility of spontaneous protests, lawlessness, violent loitering: urban people don’t have to go far to join a crowd (peasants have to go on a “long march” in a conflict)
Urbanization increases risk of “lonely wolf” attacks: it is easier to “disappear” in a 20-million mega-city than in a sparsely populated rural area
Casualties could be enormous of one single successful attack
Urbanization creates multiple vulnerabilities (economic assets, energy and water supply, communication, transportation infrastructure)
The increasing concentration of people in urban areas will…
How does Population Concentration shape conflicts? 3
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4Structure
How does Demography shape conflicts?
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Total Population by Age Groups, 1950-2100M
illio
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3
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Population Age 0-14 by Major Area, 1950-2100M
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3
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
“Most-Active” Population Age 20-34 Yearsp
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of
tota
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Window
of economic
opportunity
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Population Age 50+ Yearsp
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tota
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PopulationAgeing
3
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Population Age 0-19 and 50+ Years
Age 0-19 Age 50+
The world is ageing!
50+ population will increase from 1.4 to 4 billion
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Population Dynamics, 1950-2050 (based on WPP2006) 3
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2007): World Population Prospects, the 2006 Revision. New York
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Economic Impact of Ageing
“Unicharm Corp.’s sales of adult diapers in Japan exceeded those for babies for the first time last year.”
Yuki Yamaguchi, 9 May, 2012: Elderly at Records Spurs Japan Stores Chase $1.4 Trillion. Bloomberg Businessweek
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affect the size and structure of the military: professional instead of draft army, lack of young men, more women in the military
Older populations (= military forces) will likely use advanced
technology to avoid person to person combat; drones
Hot conflicts will likely flare up in Africa: very young, ethnically diverse populations increasingly concentrated in urban areas
“Geriatric peace” and “conflicts invited by unprotected wealth”
are equally likely in “very old” (and very wealthy) populations such as in Europe
Population ageing in Europe, America and especially in Asia will …
How does Population Structure shape conflicts? 3
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Thank You !
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