strategic interventions to population decline … · · 2017-07-12key themes for success from the...

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STRATEGIC INTERVENTIONS TO POPULATION DECLINE

Research Paper AUTHOR: RACHAEL MCMILLAN1

REPORT COMMISSIONED BY THE LOCAL AUTHORITY SHARED SERVICES

This report draws on McMillan, R. (2015 forthcoming). Anticipating depopulation – strategic interventions to population decline. Masters Thesis, University of Waikato.

BSc (Resources & Environmental Planning), PGDip (Environmental Planning), Masters student MSocSc (Demography) – Recipient of the NIDEA Research Institute Masters Scholarship and University of Waikato FASS Masters Award.

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McMillan, R. (2015). Strategic interventions to population decline. Commissioned report for the Local Government Shared Services, University Of Waikato, Hamilton.

SUPERVISORS:

DR BILL COCHRANE – University of Waikato

PROF NATALIE JACKSON – Massey University

This report draws on McMillan, R. (2015 forthcoming). Anticipating depopulation – strategic interventions to population decline. Masters Thesis, University of Waikato.

Acknowledgements

These are preliminary findings from a Masters project under the supervision of Dr Bill Cochrane and Professor Natalie Jackson in conjunction with a Royal Society of NZ Marsden funded project: The sub-national mechanisms of the ending of population growth, Tai timu tāngata Taihoe e? led by Professor Natalie Jackson.

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................ 11

Policy responses ............................................................................................................................................ 11

Strategies ....................................................................................................................................................... 12 Attracting human capital .................................................................................................................................. 12 Attracting capital flows .................................................................................................................................... 12 Maintaining and retaining human capital ........................................................................................................ 12 Maintaining and retaining investment and infrastructure ............................................................................... 12

Countering strategies – key findings .............................................................................................................. 13

Accepting strategies – key findings ................................................................................................................ 14

Key themes for success from the literature and case studies ......................................................................... 15

Waikato scenario ........................................................................................................................................... 15

Building a comprehensive strategy for the Waikato Region ........................................................................... 16

An action plan for community change at local level ....................................................................................... 16

Is there a place for exit strategies? ................................................................................................................ 17

1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 18

1.1. Scope ................................................................................................................................................ 18

1.2. Methodology..................................................................................................................................... 18

1.1. Background ....................................................................................................................................... 18

1.2. Limitations ........................................................................................................................................ 19

1.3. Structure of the report ...................................................................................................................... 19

2. DEPOPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS ....................................................... 20

2.1. Types of depopulation ...................................................................................................................... 20

2.2. Drivers of depopulation .................................................................................................................... 20

2.3. Tipping points to depopulation ......................................................................................................... 21

2.4. Consequences ................................................................................................................................... 21

3. THE COMPLEXITY OF REGIONAL CHANGE ............................................................... 22

3.1. Spatial redistribution effect on regional areas................................................................................... 24

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3.2. Interconnection – symbiotic relationship between city and regions .................................................. 25

3.3. International regional policy trends .................................................................................................. 26 Box 1: Regional change - key messages ........................................................................................................... 26

4. COUNTRY COMPARISON WITH NEW ZEALAND – CASE STUDY SELECTION ............ 27

4.1. Demographics ................................................................................................................................... 27 Box 2: Country comparison - key messages ..................................................................................................... 30

4.2. Political economy .............................................................................................................................. 31

5. POLICY RESPONSES ................................................................................................ 34

5.1. The growth paradigm battle .............................................................................................................. 34

5.2. Policy responses ................................................................................................................................ 34

5.3. Policy positions ................................................................................................................................. 35

5.4. International policy responses – intervention at country level .......................................................... 37

5.5. Community mindsets ........................................................................................................................ 38 Box 3: Policy responses - key messages ........................................................................................................... 39

6. INTERVENTIONS ...................................................................................................... 40

6.1. Economic growth and capital flows ................................................................................................... 40

6.2. Old Economy versus New Economy ................................................................................................... 41

6.3. Policy sectors .................................................................................................................................... 42

7. COUNTERING OR REGENERATION STRATEGIES ..................................................... 43

7.1. Attracting human capital ................................................................................................................... 43

7.2. Attracting capital flows ..................................................................................................................... 44

8. ACCEPTING STRATEGIES ......................................................................................... 46

8.1. Maintaining and retaining human capital .......................................................................................... 46

8.2. Maintaining and retaining investment and infrastructure ................................................................. 48 Governance ...................................................................................................................................................... 48 Planning – smart shrinkage .............................................................................................................................. 49 Economic .......................................................................................................................................................... 49

9. FINDINGS AND CHALLENGES .................................................................................. 51

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9.1. Countering strategies – key findings .................................................................................................. 51 Attracting human capital .................................................................................................................................. 51 Attracting capital flows .................................................................................................................................... 53

9.2. Accepting strategies – key findings .................................................................................................... 56 Maintaining and retaining human capital ........................................................................................................ 56 Maintaining and retaining investment and infrastructure ............................................................................... 57

9.3. To retire towns or not to retire – that is the question! ...................................................................... 62 Exit solutions? .................................................................................................................................................. 62

10. KEY THEMES FOR SUCCESS ................................................................................... 65

10.1. Key themes across all strategies ........................................................................................................ 65 Governance ...................................................................................................................................................... 65 Funding and expertise ...................................................................................................................................... 66 Community engagement and participation ..................................................................................................... 66 Utilisation of particular local situation ............................................................................................................. 66 Leadership ........................................................................................................................................................ 66

10.2. Local community requirements to tackle community change ........................................................... 67

10.3. Transferability ................................................................................................................................... 68

10.4. Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 69

11. THE WAIKATO REGION ............................................................................................. 70

11.1. The New Zealand context .................................................................................................................. 70

11.2. Waikato demographic and economic indicators ................................................................................ 70

11.3. The growth agenda ........................................................................................................................... 72

11.4. The scope of change that can be achieved ........................................................................................ 73 Constraints on growth ...................................................................................................................................... 74

11.5. Building a comprehensive strategy for the Waikato Region .............................................................. 75

11.6. Action plan for local level community change ................................................................................... 76 Summary .......................................................................................................................................................... 77

12. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................... 78

APPENDIX 1 – COUNTRY PROFILES ................................................................................... 80

1.1 Australia ............................................................................................................................................ 80

1.2 Canada .............................................................................................................................................. 80

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1.3 Germany ........................................................................................................................................... 81

1.4 Japan ................................................................................................................................................. 81

1.5 Netherlands ...................................................................................................................................... 82

1.6 UK ..................................................................................................................................................... 82

1.7 US ..................................................................................................................................................... 83

APPENDIX 2 – INDEX OF CASE STUDIES ........................................................................... 84

APPENDIX 3 – SELECTED REGIONAL CROSS SECTOR CASE STUDIES .............................. 88

3.1 Germany – Brandenburg Region ....................................................................................................... 88

3.2 Netherlands – Sustainability of redevelopment plans ....................................................................... 89

3.3 Scotland – Northeast Scotland .......................................................................................................... 90

APPENDIX 4 – SELECTED LOCAL LEVEL CASE STUDIES ................................................... 92

4.1. Bioenergy village ............................................................................................................................... 92

4.2 Downtown revitalization ................................................................................................................... 92

4.3 Japan – Ryori Port Rehabilitation Project .......................................................................................... 93

4.4 Canada – Immigration policies .......................................................................................................... 95

APPENDIX 5 - DEFINITIONS ................................................................................................ 96

REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... 97

ENDNOTES ...................................................................................................................... 105

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Table of Figures

Figure 1: Selected key demographic indicators at subnational level leading to natural decline ......... 21 Figure 2: Downward cycle of population shrinkage ............................................................................. 21 Figure 3: Complexity of regional change - drivers and influences ........................................................ 23 Figure 4: Concentration by globalisation and agglomeration .............................................................. 25 Figure 5: Total fertility rate for selected nations 1955-2010 ................................................................ 28 Figure 6: Old-age dependency ratio for selected countries 1955-2010 ............................................... 29 Figure 7: Rate of natural increase for selected countries 1955-2010 .................................................. 30 Figure 8: Summary of policy positions .................................................................................................. 35 Figure 9: Intervention level and policy response - selected OECD countries ....................................... 37 Figure 10: Community stages towards revitalisation ........................................................................... 38 Figure 11: Place and placemaking in the New Economy ...................................................................... 41 Figure 12: Strategy framework ............................................................................................................. 42 Figure 13: Key themes for success ........................................................................................................ 65 Figure 14: Key elements for transferability of town and individual policy strategies .......................... 68 Figure 15: Percentage change in the Estimated Resident Population of Census Area Units (CAU), 2001-2006 and 2006-2013: Waikato Region ........................................................................................ 71 Figure 16: Summary of factors for community regeneration ............................................................... 74 Figure 17: Building a comprehensive strategy ...................................................................................... 75 Figure 18: Key steps in community plan for change ............................................................................. 76

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Table of Tables

Table 1: Notes on demographic trends ................................................................................................ 20 Table 2: Drivers of depopulation .......................................................................................................... 20 Table 3: Typology of countries – government spending at central and local government levels ....... 32 Table 4: Territorial authorities and governance .................................................................................. 33 Table 5: Perspectives for applying policy responses to depopulation ................................................. 36 Table 6: Strategies for attracting human capital .................................................................................. 43 Table 7: Strategies for attracting capital flows ..................................................................................... 44 Table 8: Selected economic tools ......................................................................................................... 45 Table 9: Relationship between maintaining human capital strategies and tools ................................. 47 Table 10: Strategies for maintaining and retaining investment and infrastructure ............................. 48 Table 11: Rural community outcomes under two scenarios ................................................................ 53 Table 12: Successful regional development theories ........................................................................... 54 Table 13: Regional development theories that are not successful ....................................................... 54 Table 14: Population growth – Waikato Region ................................................................................... 70 Table 15: Waikato Region GDP ............................................................................................................. 70 Table 16: Top three industries share of Waikato Region’s GDP ........................................................... 70 Table 17: Business Growth Agenda actions relevant to the Waikato Region ...................................... 72 Table 18: Range of factors that support community regeneration ...................................................... 73 Table 19: Definitions – welfare state .................................................................................................... 96 Table 20: Definitions – varieties of capitalism ...................................................................................... 96 Table 21: Definitions – two types of human capital ............................................................................. 96

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“You can change the future of your community or you can sit back and allow whatever happens to happen.

You can create your own destiny. However, the cost is high. It means organising a group of people who are willing to give of their time and energy to make things happen.

It means believing in yourself and your organisation. It means putting aside individual differences to work together for the good of the community. It means working together to decide what you want for the future and then working together to make it happen.”

Jack McCall, Small Town Survival Manual 1988:14

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Executive Summary

Population growth has already ended in a number of countries, and depopulation has begun. Depopulation typically occurs first at subnational level before becoming a national issue. Since demographic change plays out spatially it has profound impacts on the regional level. Decline presents both threats and opportunities to regional areas. Regional demographic change is often caused by factors beyond the territory and as part of the complex interplay of local, regional, national and international influences and drivers. Governments and planners have yet to learn how to manage population decline as it does not occur in a uniform manner at the local level and institutional arrangements and the legal framework are geared for a growth paradigm.

Towns are like businesses – they need to keep reinventing themselves in the global marketplace to remain competitive. However, the market has not able to find the solution to demographic decline. There is a symbiotic relationship between the regions and the cities that is important for national competitiveness that cannot be ignored. Regional policy trends are shifting away from single sectors to cooperative, multi-actor approaches that deal with place-based issues.

Policy responses Policies for dealing with population decline share “substantial similarities” due to the universal nature of the causal forces:

low fertility and increasing longevity population ageing economic geographic (mobility) processes – concentration and urbanisation

The literature proposes that there are only three possible policy responses to population decline: non-intervention – choosing not to acknowledge population decline or being aware but

doing nothing ‘countering’ or strategic intervention – trying to stimulate population growth ‘accepting’ the decline and managing both it and the consequences.

What perspective is decided on fundamentally shapes the political and planning framework for action on depopulation in a region. Strategies for shrinking regions have commonly been a mix of economic stimulation and accepting strategies for dealing with the negative consequences of decline.

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Strategies Strategies cover five main policy sectors: governance, planning, economic, promotion and social. There is significant overlap between these. A comprehensive strategy can cover several policy sectors.

Countering strategies cover Accepting strategies cover Attracting human capital Attracting capital flows

Maintaining and retaining human capital Maintaining and retaining investment and infrastructure

Attracting human capital Promotion and place-making policies aim to draw people in by:

creating physically appealing places to live in promoting the location as an appealing place to live promoting economic opportunities

Attracting capital flows Economic regeneration strategies aim to bring more financial capital into the location and enable job creation by either:

Attracting businesses ie. factories, businesses Attracting spending ie. tourism

Maintaining and retaining human capital Strategies that focus on maintaining and retaining the existing population focus on:

providing a better quality of life enabling social inclusion adapting to an ageing population

Maintaining and retaining investment and infrastructure Strategies typically lie in the policy sectors of governance, planning and economics.

Governance strategies focus on how governments can provide services and funding in declining areas.

Planning strategies focus on pro-actively shrinking the built infrastructure to match the smaller population in an effort to maintain housing values and improve the quality of the environment.

Economic strategies focus on restructuring the economic base activities of the location, looking for opportunities to capitalise on providing services for an ageing population, exploring ways to combat labour and skill shortages and utilising the changing face of worker mobility.

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Countering strategies – key findings Key finding: Countering strategies were able to slow population decline but this was dependent on the location, economic and demographic context of each community. Population decline is unbeatable in places where the underlying economic and demographic drivers are too strong.

Summary

• Place making in terms of quality of life and amenities draws people to locations • Strategies that focus on new housing, tourism and promotional campaigns have limited

success. • Building new attractions can leave a community in a worse financial situation. • Social policies are more effective than building and upgrading the built environment. • Employment alone is not enough to stop out-migration. • Youth initiatives have been successful in regenerating small towns. • Migrant strategies have been successful coupled with integration policies. They can slow

decline but not stop it in areas with severe structural ageing. • Policies are more effective in areas with the higher amenities or that have higher potential

opportunities. • Peripheral regions are far harder to address than those close to economically strong urban

centres. • New functions are often untested in the marketplace and may not be the saviour that is

expected, ie. factories building green technologies can be susceptible to economic downturns.

• As subnational decline spreads, regional competitiveness will come at the expense of other regions, as they fight over the same diminishing pool of people.

• Areas that begin to regenerate are often only attracting people from the region/s surrounding them1.

• Places that regenerate find that the newcomers do not occupy the same niche as the pre-existing society. They have different spending and living patterns and will not necessarily provide the economic opportunities that the community is seeking.

• Using agricultural policies to increase population in the rural areas will not increase population.

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Accepting strategies – key findings Key finding: None of the accepting strategies that were identified were able to stop population decline; it is easier to achieve improved quality of life than to slow population decline.

Summary

• Quality of life as an emerging key economic driver. • Quality of life can be improved in declining areas through social strategies. • In the regions it is easier to achieve improved quality of life than slowing population decline. • Social policies were more effective than building and upgrading the built environment. • Strong social connections (social capital) enable towns to survive external shocks. • Youth initiatives led to success of small towns in Australia. • A positive outcome is the ability to demolish poor housing which can physically improve the

district. • Smart shrinkage has not stopped population decline. • Vacant green spaces are not necessarily a positive improvement. • Shrinking populations do not appear to make districts more sustainable. • Planning paradigms need to change from separation of activities to consolidation of

activities in areas of decline. • Governments need to change their legal structures to allow for consolidation. • Emphasising shrinkage can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. • Success depends on what you are measuring – for instance, a village in Germany built an off-

grid electricity and heating supply that successfully supplied the residents but only with the input of vast amounts of technical expertise and higher level funding.

• Costs involved in green infrastructure provision and green downsizing solutions can be prohibitive.

• Viable adaption options for public service provisions are: improving the accessibility and flexibility of infrastructure, reducing and/or combining it, offering temporary and/or mobile provision of services.

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few negative demographic

indicators

few negative socio-economic

factors good location opportunities strong

community positive outlook

Key themes for success from the literature and case studies Key themes emerged for the success of an initiative. These themes are apparent across all countries.

Waikato scenario The Waikato region is a medium-size economy and on the whole has been thriving and growing. At a sub-regional level, the picture is not so robust. Growth has been disparate and centred around urban growth hubs with many of the more peripheral areas shrinking substantially over the period 2001-2013.

Scope of changes that can be achieved:

The communities that have the most potential for turning around their situation are those that have less problems to start with.

In severely declining peripheral areas of the Waikato the best that can be hoped for is:

In the context of national population growth and strong immigration – less decline in the peripheral areas than would otherwise be the case. In other words, the peripheral areas will still decline due to the underlying drivers but not so rapidly as in the context of national decline.

Improving social connectedness and quality of life.

Summary of key factors for community regeneration

National framework

Enabling legal framework Enabling policies Funding sources

Regional guidance

Enabling policies Available expertise Funding sources

Local initiative

Utilisation of local opportunities Leadership Local participation Local context

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Local

•Identify the regional and local level place context Identify

•Determine the policy response Determine

•Lobby for an enabling national framework Lobby

•Develop regional guidance Develop

•Support stronger local communities Support

•Identify local issues and opportunities Identify

•Develop appropriate cross policy sector initiatives Develop

•Measure, review and adjust Review

Regional

Key finding: The most appropriate response to a scenario where places are growing and peripheral areas are not, is to adopt a pragmatic response that uses elements from both countering and accepting initiatives. For some areas both the long term and short term drivers of decline are too strong to adopt a plan of regeneration. A pragmatic plan uses the best of both countering and accepting strategies in an approach that focuses on positive change while acknowledging that success may be measured in quality of life, a healthy environment and high quality amenities rather than increasing economic outcomes. There is a need to examine what can be resuscitated, what can be combined and what can be shut down.

Building a comprehensive strategy for the Waikato Region Putting all the elements together, a comprehensive strategic response requires assessment of the regional and local contexts, integration across levels, actors and policy sectors, and should provide support to local communities so that they have the tools and resources to succeed.

An action plan for community change at local level Key steps in a suggested action plan for community change are:

Accept Engage Utilise Attract Retain Maintain Provide Retire Wait

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Is there a place for exit strategies? There comes a point when some communities are no longer viable. Thousands of villages and towns across Russia, Japan, Canada, Australia and the US have either completely lost their populations or are in danger of doing so. There are many examples of people with no resources left to enable them to shift from declining towns and villages, being left behind living in substandard buildings with limited services. There is no planned response to manage the situation. The environmental scan did not identify any comprehensive exit strategies for towns, undertaken by governments in response to absolute decline. There are strong economic, social, ecological and historical arguments in the literature for and against deliberately closing down towns that have reached terminal decline.

Some communities do not have the foundational elements to succeed. In these cases, where these communities do not have a function in building national competitiveness, the hard discussions need to take place about the historical reasons the community is in that location and whether it is meeting the needs of residents and the country. Is a place for exit strategies and what these could look like? At the end of the day do we have the humanity to provide for those who are left behind?

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1. Introduction

This report focuses on international responses to depopulation and the spectrum of interventions available. This report has been commissioned to inform the development of the Waikato Spatial Plan and provide insight into possible solutions for dealing with sub-regional population decline within the Waikato region.

1.1. Scope The scope of the report covers:

• The spectrum of interventions that countries are using to address population decline. • Key messages and themes from international examples of strategies being used to address

population decline. • Options applicable and appropriate to the Waikato scenario including the scope of change

that is able to be achieved2.

1.2. Methodology The methodologies used for this report were:

Environmental scanning methodologies3: Active and directed environmental scanning to identify policy interventions and initiatives from academic sources, news articles and grey literature (such as, but not limited to: reports, theses, conference proceedings, technical specifications and standards, bibliographies, technical and commercial documentation, and government reports and documents)4.

Thematic analysis of literature was conducted to identify themes on types of depopulation, drivers of depopulation, policy responses and initiatives.

Quantitative secondary data was examined from: censuses, OECD surveys and databases, UN Population Division databases as well as databases sourced from international research units.

Case studies were collected from countries that:

• Have similarity to New Zealand by political economy (Australia, Canada, UK, US). • are depopulating significantly at a national level and are exploring strategies (Germany,

Japan) • have active strategies to deal with population decline at regional level (Netherlands, Nordic

countries). • showed a range of response types and intervention levels for comparability.

Case study analysis – Case studies were analysed by thematic analysis.

1.1. Background Since 2013, the local authorities of the Waikato Region have been working towards developing a joint spatial plan for the Waikato to provide a collective voice on regional and sub-regional issues. The Waikato Spatial Plan aims to identify key areas for future aligned responses5.

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1.2. Limitations Due to time constraints the scope of the report is limited to a few OECD countries only. However it should be noted that there are many other useful initiatives occurring in countries outside the scope of this report.

Over 40 case studies and literature on initiatives were examined to provide a range of possible interventions that are present in other countries, but this list cannot be said to be exhaustive. There are large bodies of research undertaken on each type of strategy. This report seeks to understand the broad context of initiatives.

References are provided for further reading on specific or groups of case studies.

1.3. Structure of the report The following chapters:

• outline global depopulation and demographic drivers • describe the complexity of regional population change • examine New Zealand’s demographic context in relation to a number of key OECD countries • outline the range of international policy responses to depopulation • list selected strategies for countering or accepting depopulation from case studies • list key findings from the literature and case studies • provide key themes for successful strategies from the literature and case studies • discuss the scope of change that can be achieved from selected strategies • recommend an approach to dealing with depopulation in the Waikato Region

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2. Depopulation and demographic trends

Summary points Population growth has already ended in a number of countries. Across the developed world demographic trends tend to follow a similar pattern;

• total fertility below population replacement levels for extended periods of time • increasing longevity • ageing populations.

Depopulation is extremely likely under the above conditions. There is a lag of several decades between when below-replacement level fertility becomes

entrenched in a country and the onset of national level depopulation. Many countries have already experienced below-replacement fertility for many decades. Depopulation occurs first at sub-national level before becoming a national level issue. Net migration gain only partially offsets population ageing6.

Table 1: Notes on demographic trends Demographic trends Demographic projections are typically more accurate than economic forecasts. Demographic trends behave like a super tanker – they are difficult to redirect once a course is set. Demographic projections are best thought of as ‘directional’ rather than ‘inevitable.7’

2.1. Types of depopulation There are three main types of depopulation at local level: economic – net migration loss in response to an economic or environmental shock or

stagnation (may be reversed if the demographic drivers are not significant) demographic – natural decline (more deaths than births) that exceeds net migration gain demographic – natural decline accompanied by net migration loss.8

2.2. Drivers of depopulation Table 2: Drivers of depopulation Short-term drivers Long-term drivers Economic cycles and external shocks9 Political transformations and policies Changing spatial trends – mobility of workers, urbanisation, concentration

Globalisation Demographic trends10

When short-term drivers, such as external shocks, coincide with downward trending long term drivers, there is reduced ability for towns to recover, leading to depopulation11. Shrinking and growing processes may also be seen in parallel in many countries12.

The balance and interplay of drivers is unique to each country and regional context. Many OECD and/or More Developed Countries (MDC) are already declining at the national level. A number of European countries began losing population at the national level in the 1990s. Even more European

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Economic degradation

Reduced investment in human, social and

cultural capital

Net outmigration

Restricted local revenue

Loss of services

Reduced quality of life

Fewer labour market entrants

than exits

Less than 15% in key reproductive ages

(25-39 years)

More elderly than children

More deaths than births

Natural / Absolute decline

countries had at least one region that was emptying out during the 1990s13. Subnational decline is clear in Australia, Canada, Europe, Japan and the United States14.

2.3. Tipping points to depopulation Regardless of the political and economic drivers, in demographic terms once a region or town reaches a certain depopulation point, the onset of natural decrease, it is almost impossible to bring about significant population increase. Jackson (2015)15 argues that there are key demographic indicators at the subnational level that can be observed before natural/absolute decline sets in, giving regions a head start in assessing what level of strategy to use. Among them are:

Figure 1: Selected key demographic indicators at subnational level leading to natural decline

2.4. Consequences Depopulation is multifaceted and has major flow-on effects for the allocation of resources, the provision of services and the viability of communities isolated from the economic powerhouses. Figure 2: Downward cycle of population shrinkage

Population shrinkage can be self-reinforcing, creating a cycle of slowing economic activity, out-migration of human capital, restricted local revenues, degradation of social and physical networks and services, and a reduced quality of life for those left behind16.

Jackson 2015

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3. The complexity of regional change

Population decline presents both threats and opportunities to regional areas. Regional demographic change is often caused by factors beyond the territory and as part of the complex interplay of national and international factors. Since demographic change plays out spatially it can have profound impacts at the subnational level. It is essential therefore to develop policy mixes that acknowledge the place-based and socio-economic contexts at both national and subnational level.17

Conceptualising policy strategies for dealing with depopulation requires an understanding of the complexity of influencing factors and drivers on regional populations (see Figure 3).

Any policy that attempts to improve conditions at the regional or local level must give credence to the overarching trends. ‘Place’ is influenced by drivers of change at international, national and regional levels in the political, economic and social spheres. The town or region that is the target for policy strategies brings its own unique set of challenges and opportunities, based on its ‘place context’ within these wider influences. Place based challenges require place based responses18.

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International

Globalisation

Geopolitics

International mobility

Consumerism & marketing

Trade

Technological advances

Environmental policies

National

Governance structures

Government policies

National economy

Political economy

Political and social history

Regional

Governance structures

Planning models

Local Government

Local actors and interests

Social dynamics

Population dynamics

Workforce ageing

Workforce participation

Workforce mobility

Social inequalities

Cultural heritage

Changing societal values

Place context

Local Population dynamics

Location attributes

Industrial mix and

performance

Skills and talents

Innovation

Connectivity and

infrastructure

Environment

Settlement Patterns

Indicators of regional prosperity

GDP Incomes Quality of Life Local

Government Finances

Employment Productivity In-migration

Figure 3: Complexity of regional change - drivers and influences

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3.1. Spatial redistribution effect on regional areas Globalisation is a key driver of the changing spatial distribution of people and capital. Although there is no consistent definition of globalisation19, broadly, in economic terms globalisation “consists of the integration of national economies in the direction of an international trade-based economy, direct foreign investment, short-term capital flows, the international flow of workers and people in general, as well as the flow of technology20.”

The literature suggests that the forces of globalisation and agglomeration concentrate financial capital, human capital, resources and infrastructure in globally competitive cities whilst leaving those cities, towns or regions on the periphery sucked dry of those same life-giving components (see Figure 4.21 Consequently, growth is unbalanced with some areas experiencing labour surpluses while others experience prolonged shortages, particularly of skilled labour.

Globalization affects labour market mobility in more ways than international migration. Permanent long term migration is not the only issue, long-distance commuting has become common with people moving across regions and countries for work opportunities. These pathways are fluid and affect the flow of capital. Functional labour market areas are changing with this mobility as people live in one area and work and spend in another22.

The impact of these drivers is stronger in peripheral areas than in urban locations. The effect of these forces on peripheral areas leads to:

• a cutback of services due to decreasing local tax revenues with a flow on effect of worsening social inclusion

• the inability of peripheral regions to participate in decision-making processes yet be strongly effected by external political decisions

• and the struggle to obtain high added value to the economy although impacted by economic cycles at a supra regional and global level23.

Beetz et al (2008) emphasize that regional demographic shrinkage is closely linked to government centralisation policies.

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Peripheral centres

Figure 4: Concentration by globalisation and agglomeration

In countries that are still growing at a national level, studies have shown that rural communities that are managing to grow even with the changing spatial redistribution are:

• those in close proximity to urban agglomeration economies (spill over effects) • have services • have amenities24.

A case study of Victoria, Australia showed that over the period 2001 – 2011 only six per cent of the population growth occurred outside of a two hour drive perimeter from central Melbourne. Peri-urban areas with strong integration with the city labour market received significant gains in population25.

3.2. Interconnection – symbiotic relationship between city and regions There is a growing understanding of the interconnected nature of national competitiveness. Regional development policy has become a significant issue in the OECD countries as regional areas are “increasingly recognised as crucial contributors to overall national competitiveness26.”

Political and academic rhetoric often pits metropolitan areas against regional areas in a battle for people and jobs. According to Spiller (2012) a more correct picture is that cities are the powerhouses that feed the regions, providing valuable knowledge that drives regional industry sectors.

For many rural based primary industries, the desk based part of the value chain is often located in cities with links to global supply chains, communication technologies and international services trade. The making and distribution part of the supply chain is often dislocated from the research and strategic management sections. For instance the Queensland mining industry shows that a third of the value chain by value of the mining industry’s outputs is accounted for by Scientific, Technical and Professional services. These activities are typically located in the major centres and may be well

Globally competitive cities

Infrastructure

Resources

Financial and human capital

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away from the location of a mine. Neither the main centre nor the region can survive without the other27. Thus policy focus cannot be simply directed at keeping cities competitive. “There is increasing realisation that these demographic trends have profound implications for regional policy and are critical for regional economic productivity and social cohesion28.”

There needs to be strong links between the rural end of the production line and the management of the business in the city. For instance, dairy giant Fonterra announced in March 2015 it was relocating some of its management from Auckland to the regions to strengthen ties with farmers29.

3.3. International regional policy trends Since the 1980s there has been a general shift in regional policy away from financial redistribution to regional areas. There has been recognition that financial redistribution and focusing on agriculture is not enough to encourage development of rural places. Three main factors are changing the face of regional policy development across OECD countries:

• an increased focus on places and their amenities • reformation of agricultural policy from subsidies to specific sectors • decentralisation and movement away from regional redistribution of financial support

towards broader policies to improve regional competitiveness.

This approach requires strong coordination across sectors, across levels of government, and between public and private actors30. There is a broad trend away from top-down approaches that focus on single sectors. Policies are shifting to cooperative, multi-actor approaches that deal with place based issues31.

Box 1: Regional change - key messages

• Regions cannot be simply ignored as there is a symbiotic relationship between the regions and the cities that is important for national competitiveness.

• Regional policy trends are shifting away from single sector approaches to cooperative, multi-

actor approaches that deal with place based issues. The complexity of the problem is immense. How best can we provide for communities that are suffering from the draining effects of this multitude of drivers? How do we balance the need to have economically viable regional areas that feed into the national economy yet cope with rising costs of servicing those same communities in the face of declining population numbers?

There are no easy answers. The following chapters will outline a selection of proposed answers to these challenging questions.

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4. Country comparison with New Zealand – case study selection Case studies were collected from countries that:

• have similarity to New Zealand by political economy (Australia, Canada, UK, US). • are depopulating significantly on a national level and are exploring strategies (Germany,

Japan) • have active strategies to deal with decline at regional level (Netherlands, Nordic countries1). • showed a range of response types and intervention levels for comparability.

4.1. Demographics New Zealand is several decades behind the countries that are depopulating at a national level and still has a higher fertility rate than most other OECD countries. However, the first of New Zealand’s Territorial Authorities are experiencing natural decrease.

This comparison shows how New Zealand compares with selected OECD countries. New Zealand has historically had a higher total fertility rate32 (TFR) than most other OECD countries. Population replacement level is 2.1 children per woman33. Figure 4 shows that most of these countries, except the US and New Zealand, fell below two children per woman during the 1970s and except for slight rises, have not regained replacement level fertility. These countries have experienced below-replacement fertility rates for more than three decades. Fertility is not expected to recover to reach replacement levels34.

Figure 5 shows an increase in New Zealand’s TFR coming up to 2010, but more recent data has shown that this upturn was short lived and reflected the movement of a large cohort through the key reproductive age groups—essentially an echo of the baby boom.

1 Although the Nordic countries have many useful initiatives, profiles of these countries were restricted to seven countries for ease of comparison.

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Figure 5: Total fertility rate for selected nations 1955-2010

(World Population Prospects Revision 2012: UN Population Division)

Accompanying the fertility trend is numerical and structural ageing of populations and increased longevity35. Figure 6 shows the classic old age dependency ratio of the same group of countries. This ratio provides an indication of the notional dependency burden on the working age population from older people requiring support. The higher the old age dependency ratio the greater the burden on the economically active population36. Typically the old age dependency ratio is defined as the ratio of the population 65 and over to the population 15-64. For this graph the over 70+ population was selected as many people are now working to older ages and most people under the age of 20 are in some form of education. Indeed New Zealand now has twice as many people in the classic working age population (15-64 years) who are not working, as in the 65+ population.

Figure 6 shows that Japan and Germany have significantly higher aged dependency ratios and these ratios are growing rapidly. The drop for Germany in the 1990s coincides with the reunification with East Germany and the influx of young East Germans, although this phenomenon only slowed the ageing of the population for 15-20 years. Reflecting its’ higher than average fertility rate and long baby boom, New Zealand’s ratio is still relatively low.

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Figure 6: Old-age dependency ratio for selected countries 1955-2010


Many countries have not yet begun natural decline at the national level but are experiencing significant depopulation at sub-national level. Figure 7 shows that Germany has been in a state of natural decline for several decades, whereas Japan has only recently crossed the threshold. Some countries that have a low fertility rate, such as Canada and the UK, have a high net migration gain that is sustaining their population in the short term. New Zealand’s Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) is still relatively high.

30

Figure 7: Rate of natural increase for selected countries 1955-2010


Demographic trends do not respect political timeframes. Once demographic trends set in they are very hard to shift.

New Zealand is several decades behind the countries that are depopulating at a national level and has a higher fertility rate and stronger natural increase than most other OECD countries—in part because it had a higher and longer baby boom between the 1940s and 1960s, and in part because of relatively high per capita net migration gains in most years. However, the shift to the ending of growth is already evident at subnational level with more than one-third of territorial authority areas experiencing depopulation, and there are lessons that can be learned from countries further down the path.

Box 2: Country comparison - key messages New Zealand has an opportunity to: Prepare Choose our response/s Pro-actively manage the consequences Focus on the opportunities Promote well-being and quality of life.

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4.2. Political economy One of the key constraints for the ability to transfer strategies from one context to another is source funding and institutional and governance arrangements that may support or hinder the operation of initiatives.

The countries have been typologised by their welfare state regime and variety of capitalism (see Table 3). It is useful to consider the welfare state as this effects money transfers between different entities in the economy, and especially social initiatives. Attempting to transfer social strategies from one country to another may not be successful if the political economy is too different or it would require considerable change in legal structures in the country attempting to implement the strategy.

Another consideration is the extent to which tasks are the responsibility of national or central government and which tasks are delegated to regional governments. Many countries delegate to their local governments administration of education, social protection, general services, health, economic affairs, defence, etc. Some of these countries will more easily be able to make decisions at regional and local level about what strategies can be activated without need for lobbying of their central governments to change governance arrangement, for example, to allow school premises to supply various community and social services. Of note in Table 3, New Zealand spends less than other countries on subnational government spending as a percentage of public expenditure. This may impact on the ability of local governments to fund initiatives at a regional or local level. This also suggests that NZ is highly centralised with a low level of autonomy for local governments. Again the ability to transfer strategies may be constrained by this situation.

In general, countries that are part of the European Union, as well as Japan, have national level support for dealing with depopulation, whereas policy responses in the United States have been primarily at the local level37.

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Table 3: Typology of countries – government spending at central and local government levels

NZ Australia Canada Germany Japan Netherlands UK US Welfare state regimes38 Wage Earner

Welfare State Wage Earner Welfare State

Liberal Welfare State

Christian Democratic

Welfare State

Wage Earner Welfare State

Christian Democratic

Welfare State



Varieties of capitalism39 Liberal Market Economy

Liberal Market Economy


Coordinated Market Economy





Governance structure Unitary Federation Federation Federation Unitary Unitary Unitary Federation Levels of government 3 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 GDP growth rate % (2012) 3.0 3.7 1.8 0.7 2.0 -1.2 0.3 2.2

GDP per capita (USD) 33 026 46 539 42 302 41 243 35 220 43 078 36 892 49 316 Government responsibilities

Central or state government responsibilities

Education, Social protection,

General Services, Health,

Economic affairs


General Services, Economic affairs



Education Education, Social protection,


Economic affairs



Economic affairs

Health, policing? Education, Social protection,


Economic affairs Local government responsibilities


General Services, Economic affairs,

some health



Government funds – general and tax (total and subnational) General government revenue per capita***

12 524 14 229 15 052 18 625 11 198 19 992 15 827 15 193

Subnational government revenue per capita*

1 308 n.a. 3 184 3 253 5 698 6 852 5 013 n.a

Government spending General government spending per capita (USD)

14 751 16 051 17 223 18 559 14 220 21 713 18 208 20 063

Subnational government spending per capita (USD)

1 431 n.a. 3 408 3 158 5 663 7 031 5 149 n.a.

Subnational government spending

9.7** n.a. 19.8 17.0 39.8 32.4 28.3 n.a.

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as % of public expenditure Subnational government expenditure % GDP

4.8** n.a. 8.7 7.7 16.7 16.3 13.7 n.a

OECD (2013). Subnational Governments in OECD Countries: Key Data. OECD Publishing. (2012 figures unless stated) See definitions in Appendix 4. *Subnational figures for federation countries are for ‘local government alone’ or regional and local government rather than individual states within the federation. **2010 figures ***General government revenue: tax revenue, transfers (current and capital grants and subsidies); tariffs and fees; property income and social contributions General government: combines central/federal government; state government; local government (regional and local) and social security funds.

Table 4: Territorial authorities and governance

NZ Australia Canada Germany Japan Netherlands UK US No. of municipal governments (2012)* 67 565 4 147 11 327 1 719 408 406 35 879

Area (km2) 269 652 7 692 024 9 984 670 357 027 377 955 41 528 243 820 9 831 513 Inhabitants (per thousands) 4 325 22 647 34 181 81 212 127 498 16 778 63 244 316 266

Avg. no. of inhabitants per municipality

64 550 40 085 8 240 7 170 74 170 41 125 155 775 8 815

Avg. no. of municipalities/100000 inhabitants

1.5 2.5 12.1 13.9 1.3 2.4 0.6 11.3

OECD (2013). Subnational Governments in OECD Countries: Key Data. OECD Publishing. (2012 figures unless stated)

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5. Policy responses

5.1. The growth paradigm battle After hundreds of years of relatively low growth, in the 18th Century populations in Europe began growing more rapidly, but not in a steady or cohesive manner. Rapid growth was considered a significant problem as it was unmanaged and had enormous social consequences. Growth was an issue to be disciplined and politicised. Governments began planning the built environment, and welfare and education became ‘social rights’. Many of the institutions and rights that we take for granted today are the consequence of the social upheavals that occurred during this time and the practices that were put in place to manage growth. Growth became embedded as a necessary and essential good for the functioning of society40.

Hospers and Reverda (2015) contend that “population decline is in a similar initial phase as growth was in the nineteenth century: it is an event, it happens to us, and as of yet cannot be scheduled41.” For instance, housing or shop vacancies are not able to be fully predicted. The big picture of demographic decline can be seen at the helicopter view but the pieces of the puzzle at the ground level are much more challenging. Shrinkage does not occur in a uniform manner.

The growth paradigm is being challenged on every front. The OECD states that the market alone is not able to find the solution to the challenges of demographic change. “There is a need for new ways of thinking regarding ageing and older workers’ output to overcome some of the expected challenges and to ensure financing of services that are likely to increase, with a growth of an ageing population, but a declining resource base42.”

5.2. Policy responses The literature proposes that there are only three possible policy responses to population decline: non-intervention – choosing not to acknowledge population decline or being aware but

doing nothing4344 ‘countering’ or strategic intervention – trying to stimulate population growth45 ‘accepting’ the decline and managing both it and the consequences46.

Countering solutions attempt to stimulate economic growth and in-migration. However, as subnational decline spreads, regional competitiveness will come at the expense of other regions, as they fight over the same diminishing pool of people.

Accepting strategies generally focus on stabilising the population that is already there. Population ageing driving the end of growth is a significant new aspect of population decline. Many accepting strategies focus on innovative solutions and opportunities to provide for this ageing dynamic. Strategies for shrinking regions have commonly been a mix of economic stimulation and accepting strategies for dealing with the negative consequences of decline47.

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5.3. Policy positions

Policy responses to depopulation have differing viewpoints as to the reasons to adopt them. These perspectives can be grouped under non-intervention ‘do nothing’, intervention-countering and intervention-accepting.

Figure 8: Summary of policy positions

Table 5 explains perspectives for applying policy responses to depopulation. What perspective is decided on fundamentally shapes the political and planning framework for action on depopulation in a region48.

Do nothing

•Denial •Ignoring •Passive restructuring •Market adaptation

Countering

•Competitiveness •Interconnection

Accepting

•Managing •Utilising

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Table 5: Perspectives for applying policy responses to depopulation

Do nothing/Non-intervention Denial Denying that a problem exists. Ignoring Knowing the problem is there but not actively considering it. Active non-intervention - passive restructuring

Actively choosing not to intervene. Allowing the market to choose which towns survive.

Active non-intervention - adaptation

Actively choosing not to intervene with the expectation that the free market environment will create a new equilibrium and provide opportunities for alternative lifestyles in areas that can no longer function as a traditional economic unit. The local economy can adapt and provide new avenues to create value. Civil society can provide support functions where government services can no longer function.

Countering/Intervention Competitiveness

Active intervention based on free market ideology. Regional closure is a disadvantage leading to innovation blockages and competitiveness should be accentuated. The region should be integrated into supra-regional and global economic activities. Focus should be on product specialisation, deregulated working conditions and low workforce costs.

Interconnection Active intervention based on the theory that free markets have no self-balancing mechanisms and the intrinsic value of weak regions. Redistributing welfare to weak regions is a necessity and an indispensable good. To reduce economic inequalities, regions that are strong and those that are weak should be mutually supportive49.

Accepting/Intervention Managing Shrinkage is accepted and policies are adapted to slow the rate of

decline and manage the consequences of depopulation. Focus is on how to retain the current population, provide services and maintain/enhance quality of life.

Exit strategies – ranking communities and retiring those communities that are no longer viable.

Utilising Shrinkage is accepted but opportunities and advantages to the situation are actively pursued50.

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5.4. International policy responses – intervention at country level

International responses to population decline vary from country to country based on historical, cultural, political, institutional arrangements, issues to be addressed and resource availability.

Countries can be identified on a continuum from high to low intervention within a policy response framework from passive restructuring ‘do nothing’ to accepting decline. Generally countries have a number of strategies to deal with countering population decline, however some favour actively managing the situation while others prefer to let market forces dictate.

The countries presented in the figure below have been selected from among the OECD countries to show a range of responses to the issues of depopulation. These countries are of interest as they are either dealing with depopulation at a national level or have active strategies for dealing with depopulation at a regional level. Figure 9: Intervention level and policy response - selected OECD countries

Within the above intervention levels there are wide disparities between countries in terms of policy frameworks:

state directed state facilitated

nationally driven regionally driven

place-based policies people-based policies

market-based public policy-based

The strategic response from the countries listed in Figure 9 can provide valuable insights into the responses that could be adopted in New Zealand and the Waikato region.

High Intervention

Do nothing Accepting

Low intervention

Canada

Australia

Japan

United States

Countering

Netherlands

Germany

UK

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Profiles for each country have been developed to explain their policy frameworks and recent policy developments (see Appendix 1). Some countries have a ‘top down’ approach where policy is formed at a national level and the regions are instructed to comply. Other countries have a ‘bottom up’ approach, giving the responsibility for developing regional development plans to their regions.

Strategies at the regional level, especially for shrinking city regions in the Western democratic countries of the European Union, have commonly been a mix of ‘countering’ and ‘accepting’ strategies. These strategies are a combination of old and new responses, promoting growth but accepting:

concepts of sustainability the need for policy adaptation to decline and mediation of consequences the need for state intervention combined with market and civil society to achieve results51.

5.5. Community mindsets Matanle (2015)52 argues that there are five stages that a community moves through down the path to community revitalisation.

Figure 10: Community stages towards revitalisation

However “economic recovery and community revitalisation do not just happen; they must be achieved, their achievement requires detailed research and planning, as well as inclusive and integrated implementation coordination. Communities must collectively imagine and reinvent their futures and develop the necessary mechanisms to enact those futures and lived experience.”53

Stage 5 Achieve community revitalisation

Stage 4 Develop strategies to realise a ‘depopulation dividend’ or opportunities

Stage 3 Acknowledge and accept shrinkage as a fact of life

Stage 2 Acknowledge that regrowth strategies have failed

Stage 1 Experience shrinkage and try to regrow

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Box 3: Policy responses - key messages The world has yet to learn how to manage ageing-driven population decline as it differs

fundamentally from past periods of decline and does not occur in a uniform manner at the local level.

Which welfare state model and economic theory a country adheres to underpins the governmental response to depopulation in that country.

The OECD states that the market alone is not able to find the solution to the challenges of

demographic change.

As regional decline spreads, regional competitiveness will come at the expense of other regions, as they fight over the same diminishing pool of people.

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6. Interventions This report covers a wide range of interventions or strategies from countries that are attempting to either regenerate or mitigate the consequences of population decline in their nations, regions and local communities. Such strategies are “a collection of actions and activities that help achieve a predetermined goal54.” However not all strategies are successful. The following sections will describe the nature of the interventions, findings and challenges from case studies and literature on specific types of interventions and outline key themes for success.

Policies for dealing with population decline share “substantial similarities” due to the universal nature of the causal forces:

• low fertility and increasing longevity • population ageing • economic geographic mobility processes

Concentration Urbanisation55

Some initiatives are focused entirely on a premise of countering the effects of population decline and seek to stimulate regeneration, while others acknowledge the underlying drivers are too strong in their area and accept the decline focusing on maintaining their current population and enhancing quality of life.

Some countries have adopted a mixed response where depopulation and ageing are acknowledged and measures put into place to deal with the consequences, at the same time as advancing a policy of economic stimulation. Many strategies can be adopted by either a countering or accept response while others are very specific. Some initiatives do not explicitly focus on demographic change, but do so indirectly.

6.1. Economic growth and capital flows Human capital (labour)56 and capital flows (finance) move between countries, regions and towns57. These elements tend to cluster in particular locations, which in turn attracts more capital inflows through “increased efficiencies, innovation and productivity.” 58 People often move to where they can capitalize on economic opportunities or a better quality of life, while capital flows to “areas with the least costs and greatest opportunity to increase.59”

Economic growth is typically boosted by either:

• increasing input - through making more extensive use of resources (land etc.), human capital (labour) and capital flows

• making more intensive use of existing inputs (capital, land, labour….), improving productivity 60

To ‘increase input’ a range of strategies are used to increase the supply of labour and capital.

There are two types of human capital:

humans as labour force (a production factor) as an accumulation of skills over a lifetime61 (see Appendix 5 for definitions).

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‘Countering’ strategies focus on increasing the supply of labour. Strengthening human capital (skills) that already exists in a location can be part of either a countering or accepting strategy with the intention that productivity may be increased, thus improving economic outcomes.

6.2. Old Economy versus New Economy Adelaja et al (2009) suggest that new drivers of growth have emerged challenging previous understanding of how growth and prosperity operate. The Old Economy placed great emphasis on drawing in big industries to create manufacturing jobs. The New Economy concentrates on knowledge based jobs and workers. Place making, in terms of amenities and quality of life, is emerging as a key component of attraction to locations and retention for these knowledge workers (see Figure 11)62. Many locations that are losing population were developed within an Old Economy model in peripheral areas. Numerous strategies located through the environmental scan are based on the old economy theory model.

Figure 11: Place and placemaking in the New Economy

Source: Adelaja et al (2009). Chasing the past or investing in our future

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6.3. Policy sectors The interventions often come in packages targeted at a particular policy sector. Five main policy sectors were identified: governance, planning, economic, promotion and social. Strategies cover these policy sectors but there is substantial overlap between them so that the distinctions become rather artificial. A comprehensive strategy can cover several policy sectors as well as all levels and actors.

Figure 12: Strategy framework

The following sections discuss ‘countering’ or regeneration strategies in terms of:

• Attracting human capital • Attracting capital flows

Accepting strategies cover:

• Maintaining and retaining human capital • Maintaining and retaining investment and infrastructure

There comes a point when some communities are no longer viable. Solutions need to be found to enable shutting down of the town and community without significant loss of capital or quality of life. This is the ultimate challenge.

• Exit strategies

Policy sectors

Governance

Planning

Economic

Promotion

Social

Influence level

National

Regional

Local

Actors

State or local government Market Civil society

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7. Countering or regeneration strategies Countering strategies are the most common strategies where the growth paradigm remains dominant. Most communities focus on regeneration without giving sufficient credence to the underlying population indicators and economic drivers.

7.1. Attracting human capital Positive net migration is often labelled as the ultimate measure of success for a region or town that has been suffering from depopulation. People vote with their feet and move to where they expect the best outcome – economically and for quality of life.

Table 3 lists some typical strategies for attracting human capital from the planning, economic and promotion policy sectors.

Promotion and place making policies aim to draw people in and retain them by:

• creating physically appealing places to live in • promoting the location as an appealing place to live • promoting economic opportunities

Table 6: Strategies for attracting human capital

Policy sector Type Strategy Planning Place Development of new built environment to attract immigrants

• Building more social infrastructure – swimming pools etc. • Developing house lots • Building attractions63

Gentrification: Redevelopment of existing built environment and amenities

• Refurbishment of houses to attract people • Historic Preservation • Ecological restoration • Public space improvements • Landscape beautification

Economic People Targeting skill shortages Promotion People Migration policies Promotion People Place promotion - advertising Promotion People Promoting retirement destinations

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7.2. Attracting capital flows There is nothing new about using economic development strategies to bring about regeneration. Economic regeneration strategies usually aim to bring more capital into the location and enable job creation by either:

Attracting businesses ie. factories, businesses Attracting spending ie. tourism

The following lists only touch on some of the possible strategies and tools for economic countering.

Table 7: Strategies for attracting capital flows

Policy sector Type Strategy Economic Place Downtown redevelopment Economic Place Building competitive regions Economic Place Smart specialisation – building the knowledge economy Economic Place Developing business opportunities from location, natural and

cultural amenities Economic Place Boosting innovation Economic Place Developing the green economy - eco-technologies Economic and promotion

Place Tourism

There is a large volume of literature on all of these strategies, except for smart specialisation which is a relatively new model. Smart specialisation is a concept that is rapidly becoming accepted among European regions. The central strategy is to enable targeted support for research and development of the knowledge economy. Regions go through a process of establishing a vision for their area, identifying the locations within their region that have the highest strategic potential for development, reforming their governance arrangements to allow for multi-stakeholder governance, setting strategic priorities and implementing a range of tailor made set of policy actions that serve to strengthen the knowledge based development potential of the region64.

Many of the tools can be utilised under either a countering or accepting strategy. The key message however, is that these tools will have only a limited success in a town where the underlying economic and demographic drivers are too strong (see Figure 1 and Jackson 2014).

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Table 8: Selected economic tools

Tools Attracting big business, factories Partnership authorities to drive forward sustainable economic development Integrating migrants in declining labour markets Tailored employment for the population 65+ years Demolishing housing to bring housing market back into balance Making transport available for long distance commuting Incentives: youth, regional migration, business Targeted skills and training Special economic zones Industrial zones Competitive regional clusters Eco industrial clusters One stop business information sources Business incubators Tax relief Public-private financial schemes Fund research and development centres and MSE networks

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8. Accepting strategies The first stage of an accepting strategy is to try to maintain and retain the financial and human capital that is already in place in an effort to slow further flight from the location. However, in cases where the underlying population structure and drivers are too strong, there needs to be a shift to managing the decline of human capital and financial capital if population decline continues.

An accepting strategy may require:

• Maintaining and retaining human capital • Maintaining and retaining investment and infrastructure • Adapting to an ageing society • Managing the population decline

Most of the strategies listed here are focused on people rather than place, however they may require significant changes to the built environment in allowing consolidation of facilities, adapting for an ageing community and reducing redundant infrastructure.

8.1. Maintaining and retaining human capital Maintaining and retaining the existing population strategies focus on providing a better quality of life, enable social inclusion, and adapt to an ageing population.

Shrinking regions are typically also ageing. Strategies for adapting to an ageing society will support social inclusion and will encourage retention of the existing population. Although some strategies are aimed at older people they may benefit other parts of society, such as wider footpaths for mobility scooters would also support families with baby buggies or walking with children.

Social inclusion is an important aspect of maintaining human capital. When people feel catered for and included they are more likely to choose to stay in the location65.

Table 8 shows the relationship between retention, inclusion and adaptation to an ageing society within a wide range of maintaining human capital strategies and tools.

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Table 9: Relationship between maintaining human capital strategies and tools

Policy sector

Type Strategy Retention Inclusion Adaptation to ageing

society Promotion, planning

People and place

Redeveloping city centres for older people

X X

Planning People and place

Mixed-use/pedestrian friendly redevelopments

X X X

Planning People and place

Improving accessibility X X X

Planning and Social

People Transport initiatives X X X

Economic and Social

People Promoting quality employment for older people

X X X

Economic and Social

People Access to jobs, training and education

X X

Social People Supporting community organisations

X X X

Social People Cultural regeneration X X Social People Innovative childcare

strategies X X

Social People Providing silver learning opportunities

X X X

Social People Senior clubs X X X

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8.2. Maintaining and retaining investment and infrastructure Maintaining financial capital of the public and private sectors is a key consideration for governments, communities and industries in a declining area. Affordability of government services and infrastructure is a major problem for central and local governments with rising costs and shrinking tax bases. Maintaining housing values and retaining businesses and jobs are also significant challenges in a declining area. Strategies typically lie in the policy sectors of governance, planning and economics.

Table 10: Strategies for maintaining and retaining investment and infrastructure

Policy sector Type Strategy Governance Place Territorial authority mergers Governance Place e-government reform Governance Place Service and technical infrastructure provision reform

• Merging local facilities ie schools, libraries, healthcare • Telecare – health care • Shrink the size of water piping to cut costs • Cross region partnerships for healthcare

Planning Place Pragmatic downsizing • Redevelopment of housing stock – demolish poor

efficiency buildings, renovate appropriate dwellings to improve efficiency66

• Improve accessibility of necessary facilities Smart shrinkage

• Right sizing infrastructure • Green infrastructure • Landscape beautification - brownfield site regeneration • Temporary use strategies • Land banking • Housing market rebalance

Economic Place Restructuring the economic base activities – ie agriculture, mining and manufacturing

Economic Place Reforming local labour markets Economic and social

People Developing the silver economy – ageing

Economic and social

People Developing the white economy - healthcare

Economic People and Place

Utilising the increasing mobility of workers to bring money into an area ie. FIFO or DIDO

Governance Governance strategies focus on how governments can provide services and funding in declining areas. Governance strategies focus on making resources and funding stretch across all the service areas rather than specifically on encouraging financial and human capital to flow into an area. It is about doing more for less. There is extensive literature and bodies of research on each of the following policy trends.

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International governance policy trends:

• Amalgamation of councils for funding purposes • Devolution of tasks to local governments • Devolution to civil society in declining regions for service provision • Public-private partnerships • E-government to provide services through on-line portals • Community participatory planning

Service and technical infrastructure provision is very challenging for central and local governments in areas that have declining populations.

Types of service and technical infrastructure provision may cover:

• Water supply • Wastewater • Stormwater • Roading • Electricity • Communications • Rubbish

• Libraries • Healthcare • Transport • Education • Welfare services • Emergency services • Retail

Service and technical infrastructure provision reform are typically within the policy fields of planning, governance and social.

Planning – smart shrinkage In the last 15 years planners have been grappling with the expense of ageing infrastructure and under-utilised infrastructure in declining regions and the cost of maintaining or upgrading these. Planning strategies focus on shrinking the built infrastructure to match the smaller population in an effort to maintain housing values and improve the quality of the environment. ‘Smart shrinkage’ is a term coined by a number of regions and cities that are focusing on reducing surplus infrastructure and buildings to match the smaller population size.67 There is a strong social element to smart shrinkage as abandoned buildings can reduce quality of life by leading to high rates of crime, health and safety issues and cause environmental hazards. Property values can drop and investment in the area follows suit.68

Economic Economic accepting strategies focus on restructuring the economic base activities of the location, looking for opportunities to capitalise on providing services for an ageing population, exploring ways to combat labour and skill shortages and utilising the changing face of worker mobility. The ‘silver economy’ covers a variety of ideas from encouraging older entrepreneurs to developing “innovative living, caring, and recreational” concepts for older people69. Another trend is the development of the ‘white economy’. This is creating economic opportunities by providing healthcare for older people. For instance, some locations have built ‘care hotels’ where older people who require continuing healthcare can enjoy a holiday with their families away from their usual residence70.

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There is a global trend towards greater labour mobility71. People are turning to long distance commuting (LDC) to enable them to carry on living in their home community but access distance employment opportunities. Studies in Australia, Canada and New Zealand show that workers are tapping into opportunities in the resources sector to earn a living. Fly in fly out (FIFO) resource work is providing alternative employment prospects for some struggling communities, such as in Labrador in Canada, and Western Australia. LDC enables workers to maintain their home base and their family’s social connectedness while bringing money back into their communities72. Further enabling LDC by supplying transport options may be a solution to struggling communities, especially ones that are located in high amenity areas.

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9. Findings and challenges

9.1. Countering strategies – key findings

Attracting human capital Developing or redevelopment of the built environment to attract people has been a common strategy that has been used in many regions around the world. However there is little indication that it works and can, in many cases, leave the local community in a worse financial situation. Failure of this strategy can be seen in places as disparate as Burma, where a whole city was built in anticipation of an influx of people that never arrived73, and the Netherlands where a declining region decided to invest in developing 1500 housing lots in the hope that people choosing to live in their region would also stimulate the job market. Only 150 were sold 12 years later74. In Britain a number of declining towns were propped up with government money with which various attractions like museums and art centres were built to draw tourists. They all failed75. There have been some other particularly spectacular failures. China built its very own little Paris, complete with a scaled down Eiffel tower. However, the public wasn’t so keen on moving to a location that was just buildings with no established community or business base76. On the whole strategies that focus on new housing, tourism and related campaigns have limited success77.

Local strategies often try to reverse depopulation by using gentrification to improve the appearance of a location. When these strategies work they can cause worse social problems as depopulation is often a selective migration process, leaving the most disadvantaged behind. When the built environment is gentrified and newcomers are drawn in to the improved location, the most vulnerable people are forced out through higher rents78.

Immigration is often seen as a saviour for countries that are ageing and depopulating. However if the emphasis in on the absolute number of immigrants this can build a false idea of the success of immigration initiatives. The quality of immigrants should be considered:

• Are they a worker or a dependent? • Do their skills match the gaps in the workforce? • Are they bringing in more financial capital ie. Developing a business? • What are their spending habits? Online, in the community or are they working in the

city and spend there? • Where have they come from? The next region or the next country? • Have they integrated into the community?

Some countries, such as the US, have in the past focused more on quantity than quality79. However, “the numbers of migrants needed to offset declines in the working age population are significantly larger than those needed to offset total population decline.”80 Policy discourse in the US is shifting to attracting the ‘right sort’ of immigrants rather than volume. Several programmes for integration of migrants and enabling transference of skills to the US market are being developed81. Integration strategies that enable immigrants to assimilate into the community have had greater success than simply attracting newcomers.

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Another issue with immigration is that immigrants tend to relocate to urban centres and are less likely to move to the regional areas. One case study in Canada shows the achievement of some success in attracting and integrating immigrants to a small town in a peripheral location (see Appendix 4.4). Finland has also achieved a measure of success with a strong inflow of immigrants attracted and integrated into the community. However, the Finnish community has had to acknowledge that even with the positive inflows, migrants are not able combat the structural ageing of the population and are merely a buffering measure.82

Usually the central or federal government is the lead actor in immigration strategies. Certain sectors also have strong immigration policies, such as the health sector. Immigration can be a tool to slow the onset and/or speed of decline but ultimately will not resolve the underlying driver of structural ageing. In addition, the pool of skilled workers from which to draw migrants in OECD countries will shrink from 2020 as the Most Developed Countries move pass peak population as a whole83. The age structure of the population will still age and the community and government will need to adapt to the older population.

Martinez-Fernandez (2010) found that “The demand for services in health, education, environment, housing, and entertainment can be more important than access to employment. Shrinking cities can experience a shortage of skills due to the flight of population, but employment alone is not enough to stop migration, especially of the youth who want to move to cities that offer a greater variety of opportunities and living styles.84” A key attribute of successful small town regeneration in Australia was the use of youth initiatives - attention being given to the key issues affecting the retention of young men and women, including employment diversity, education options, transport, accommodation, lifestyle, image and participation85.

Research from Europe has identified that shrinking cities in Eastern Germany that are growing again are doing so only at the expense of the region surrounding them, as the only newcomers are from these areas 86.

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Attracting capital flows Economic regeneration strategies aim to bring more financial capital into the location and enable job creation. Development policies under the Old Economy have often focused on infrastructure provision and government investment strategies to attract large companies to areas that do not have a strong industry mix. Ongoing research is showing that large infrastructure projects often lead to “greater economic agglomeration, regional polarization, and to an increasing economic marginalization of many peripheral regions where significant infrastructure investments have taken place.” 87 Government industrial investment strategies have also “wasted resources on declining industries, lame ducks, and big projects.” 88 In general, these policies have struggled to cope with the new economic realities of globalisation.89

Developing the green economy has been seen as a saviour in areas that have declining traditional industries as a way to create employment. Alternative energy production has been shown to be susceptible to economic downturns. In 2006 the town of Pipestone, in the US, attracted a wind blade plant that created 320 jobs. During 2009 the workforce was reduced by half due to economic conditions90.

Generally job creation is likely to bring people into an area, though this connection is very complex. In many locations in New Zealand there is a mismatch between jobs and workers. For instance, in Southland, there is low unemployment and few people choosing to move there to fill job openings. In other locations, there is very high unemployment and limited job opportunities ie. Kawerau. Jobs are not the always the drawcard that is expected. A survey of dynamics studying motivations for migration in New Zealand 2007 found that the main reason for people to move from their previous residence across all age groups was social motivations, followed closely by environmental reasons. Economic reasons for moving held third place91. Further discussion on this point is located in ‘maintaining and retaining human capital’.

Population decline in peripheral regions is far harder to address than in those close to economically strong centres92. Midmore et al (2010) contends that for rural communities, the best that can be hoped for under either a national population growth scenario or a national population decline scenario is93:

Table 11: Rural community outcomes under two scenarios

National population growth scenario National population decline scenario The rate of decline in rural communities is smaller than would otherwise be the case

Population loss may be mitigated

In countries that are still growing on a national level studies have shown that rural communities that are managing to grow even with the changing spatial redistribution are:

those in close proximity to urban agglomeration economies (spill over effects) have services have amenities94.

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Case studies have shown that in the regions it is easier to achieve improved quality of life than slowing population decline.

Several theoretical approaches to regional development are supported by empirical evidence. The successful theories are (given the availability of labour and capital):

Table 12: Successful regional development theories

Successful

• An active role of local actors in internal and external networks stimulates employment growth

• Community-led rural development – a well-developed self-help capacity of communities stimulates employment growth

• Exploitation of social and cultural capital stimulates employment growth • Exploitation of rural amenities and cultural capital stimulates employment growth in tourism

Regional economic theories that are not supported by the case studies are:

Table 13: Regional development theories that are not successful95

NOT Successful

• The exploitation of local raw materials stimulates employment growth in the production related to these raw materials

• A strong set of local conditions stimulates employment growth (Terluin, 2003)

There is a significant body of research that explains the benefits of massing business, jobs and people in centres or hubs, which regional towns just don’t have. It is the classic case of the wealthier getting wealthier and the poorer getting poorer. Regeneration strategies have been shown to work in many cases, but this is very specific to context. Although some locations have managed to create positive outcomes for their towns the issue of competition between several towns or regions that are attempting to attract the same dollars and people, is still present96. Not all towns will win.

In some locations countering strategies have been successful, however in places where the underlying economic and demographic drivers are too strong, decline is unbeatable97. Moreover, concentrating on economic stimulation without allowing for declining demographic indicators can lead to severe oversupply of housing and infrastructure98.

Spiller (2012) states that “selective subsidies for key industries and infrastructures may well be warranted. However, these should be directly linked to the underlying competitive strengths of particular regions, as distinct from operating as generic incentives. This requires a sound analysis of regional competitive strengths.”99

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Summary In some locations countering strategies have been successful, however in places where the underlying economic and demographic drivers are too strong, decline is unbeatable100. Moreover, concentrating on economic stimulation without allowing for declining demographic indicators can lead to severe oversupply of housing and infrastructure101.

• Place making in terms of quality of life and amenities draws people to locations • Strategies that focus on new housing, tourism and promotional campaigns have limited

success. • Building new attractions can leave a community in a worse financial situation102. • Social policies are more effective than building and upgrading the built environment. • Employment alone is not enough to stop out-migration. • Youth initiatives have been successful in regenerating small towns. • Migrant strategies have been successful coupled with integration policies. They can slow

decline but not stop it in areas with severe structural ageing103. • Policies are more effective in areas with the higher amenities or that have higher potential

opportunities. • Peripheral regions are far harder to address than those close to economically strong urban

centres. • New functions are often untested in the marketplace and may not be the saviour that is

expected, ie. factories building green technologies can be susceptible to economic downturns104.

• As subnational decline spreads, regional competitiveness will come at the expense of other regions, as they fight over the same diminishing pool of people.

• Areas that begin to regenerate are often only attracting people from the region/s surrounding them105.

• Places that regenerate find that the newcomers do not occupy the same niche as the pre-existing society106. They have different spending and living patterns and will not necessarily provide the economic opportunities that the community is seeking.107

• Using agricultural policies to increase population in the rural areas will not increase population108.

Key finding: Countering strategies were able to slow population decline but were dependent on the location and demographic context of each location.

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9.2. Accepting strategies – key findings Accepting strategies can be broken into hoping to maintain the current population, trying to slow population loss, to pragmatically managing the decline.

Maintaining and retaining human capital Strategies for maintaining and retaining the existing population focus on providing a better quality of life, enable social inclusion, and adapt to an ageing population. The reasons people stay in a location is complex. Studies are showing that attachment to ‘place’ is very important for supporting the economic health of locations.

Social ‘place making’ has a different trajectory than physically changing the built environment. Recent research found that there is a significant connection between “residents’ levels of emotional attachment to their community and its economic growth.109” In a three year study of 26 cities in the US with almost 43,000 participants, it was found that “communities with the highest levels of attachment had the highest rates of GDP growth110.” In addition social offerings, openness and aesthetics and education were named as the top reasons people felt attached to communities and locations, not the expected drivers - jobs, the economy and safety (see Appendix 5 for definitions). Residents that are strongly attached to their community are more likely to want to stay in their location. This finding is reiterated by other studies that see quality of life as an emerging key economic driver rather than previous economic models, such as attracting large companies111.

In a community that is depopulating, maintaining quality of life can be challenging. However there are some examples of success112. Pittsburg in the US provides a high quality of life in the face of population decline, after a series of measures to improve social conditions, such as; preservation of historic buildings, diversification of the economy, and mixed use/pedestrian-friendly redevelopment113. Research into small towns that survived external shocks found that although quality of life declined after such an event those towns that were resilient had strong social connections114.

Providing lifelong learning opportunities that are both informal and formal for older people has been shown to have positive impacts “on the attractiveness, competitiveness and vitality” of areas.115 A major benefit for providing these opportunities is reducing the social isolation of seniors. Transport initiatives can encourage social inclusion. Kresl & Ietri (2010) consider effective transportation as the most important factor for older people. This is also essential for young people.

An accepting strategy that a number of cities have adopted is redeveloping the residential core of the city centre with a focus on making it liveable and attractive for senior citizens to relocate116. In the US as areas have declined there is more space available to allow construction of homes that are attractive for seniors. Several US cities have focused on making the city centres attractive for older people ie Atlanta, Nashville, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Charlottesville. These cities have accepted their ageing populations and are catering for them. In locations such as the United States this strategy has been successful. Some of these efforts have been market driven however “all of these initiatives and cities of the EU and the US have been undertaken with substantial leadership and support from city officials and have been done in full recognition of the benefits to urban vitality and economic competitiveness that are derived from having a large and actively engage population of seniors in the city centre117.”

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In some areas of Europe where “market or cultural conditions do not favour the movement of seniors to the city” senior clubs have been established and it has been found that these help regenerate neighbourhoods118. However, there is a caution for locations that are shrinking and ageing at a greater rate, as creating communities especially for the elderly has not been very successful in places like Belgium and Finland119.

Maintaining and retaining investment and infrastructure A key concern of central and local governments is the affordability and provision of services in depopulating areas, and retaining businesses, jobs and housing values.

Governance A fundamental challenge for governments is “how to prioritize public investments that will most advantage a region’s economic future120.” One of the most prevalent strategies for dealing with governmental financial constraints is restructuring governance arrangements, such as merging territorial authorities. Many countries are restructuring their regional or local governments, for example; Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, and Japan121. There is much debate about the costs and benefits of this option, with consistency of processes, efficiencies and savings on the one hand and loss of local voice on local issues on the other122.

Infrastructure development is classed as an essential basic element for providing quality of life and which also enables increases in economic value in locations. Disparities in infrastructure can lead to social polarization. Finding adaptive and flexible infrastructure options will be necessary for countries, from national down to local levels to deal with population decline and its associated social and economic change.123

Eight case studies of service and technical infrastructure provision in rural areas of Germany found that modern strategies for dealing with service delivery could include:

• coordination and cooperation across municipalities and sectors; • public-private partnerships; • support and assistance for voluntary community work and non-profit organisations; • mobile service units • the use of ICT for service delivery.

Three of the eight case studies showed that civil society could function as a source of finance when the market and state were not able or willing to provide the necessary funding for local level projects. In other cases the state would provide the funding or just start-up funding for a project then run by communities.

The type of infrastructure that needed to be provided impact on which actor led the project:

• Technical infrastructure – state involvement is necessary for logistics, standard requirements and legal reasons

• Retail infrastructure – projects were initiated by civil society – required partnership with community and market.

• Social infrastructure – the state is the most important actor in healthcare provision but other forms can use civil society

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• Cultural infrastructure – civil society is the predominant actor. State and market are important but participation of civil society is essential for initiatives to work.124

In all cases civil society played a role in the success of the local solution, requiring active partnership.

New technologies are changing the way location and business interplay with broadband blurring the line between urban and rural, allowing business to locate to lower density environments. Technology is also providing new prospects for delivering crucial services, such as healthcare. Provision of healthcare is a major problem with fewer workers and increasing demand in many developed nations. Research in the US shows that 640 counties across the country do not have access to an acute care hospital.125 Health provision is turning to telecare as an option to provide for ageing populations in peripheral areas, with examples in Scotland, Denmark and the US.126

Planning In locations that have suffered severe depopulation, such as the industrial rust belt of the United States and East Germany, the local authorities have been responding with strategies to reduce their cities infrastructures. In East Germany vacant houses are being torn down, while in Youngston, Ohio a city wide planning project has focused on reducing the infrastructure to fit the smaller community. Creating green infrastructure goes hand in hand with demolition of houses or old industrial sites. A popular choice is to create pocket parks on land between buildings and park walkways. These new green spaces that have been created are then available for recreation. This technique has been used in the Netherlands, Germany and the US. Studies have shown that these parks are popular and can increase property values in adjacent housing127. Landscape beautification is part of the greening process whereby derelict structures are removed and fencing or planting is added. The idea is create the appearance of control for land that cannot be redeveloped immediately. The property is less likely to become a neighbourhood dumping ground. This technique is all about perception, maintaining market value for future investors by regular maintenance128.

Case study analysis has not shown smart shrinkage to be successful in terms of reducing depopulation. Regional case studies in Appendix 3.1-3.3 clearly show that population decline has not been stopped by the measures even though they are innovative and creative solutions. On a local level, the declining city of Youngston in the US attempted a strong vision of smart shrinkage and still struggled to stem the tide129. The suggestion is that if population decline is emphasized to the public then it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy130.These places have however, had some success in improving quality of life.

Demolishing the built environment needs to be handled with great care. Strategies for demolishing redundant infrastructure are the hallmark of Germany’s response to demographic decline. However, when it comes to homes, it is not just about bricks and mortar: “every house represents, aside from an economic value, also a historical, cultural, social, and emotional value.” The cultivated environment has too much built ‘surplus’ to simply remove it all131.

Planning for growth and planning for decline can also be defined by the way we think about people and space. Planners segregate functions in a growth area so that living, working and recreation are separated from each other. This is essential and necessary in a growth area, however in a declining area this can become a problem. To keep people together and to kept services viable the development of centres or bundles of services in multi-functional buildings may provide a solution. A

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paradigm shift needs to be taken within the planning community to develop plans for consolidation of activities rather than separation132.

Economic There are many innovative initiatives to harness economic opportunities however the cost of such initiatives is often prohibitive. A case study in Germany of a bioenergy village project showed the vast amount of technical expertise and funding was required to make a difference at local level (Appendix 5.1). Although the project was successful and met the needs of the village it would not have been possible without significant outside help. If a cost benefit analysis was conducted on the enterprise it may be that the project should not have gone ahead.

Developing economic opportunities through providing services, activities and opportunities for older people have been successful in some locations. Questions remain about whether such strategies are sustainable in the long term. How large is the market for care hotels? Will younger people and families want to live in locations that are marketed for older people? Will there be too many locations that are trying to attract the same older people as retirement destinations133? What happens when those people move from the young old to the old old and then require higher levels of care than previously?

This can be achieved through restructuring the economic base activities of the location, looking for opportunities to capitalise on providing services for an ageing population, exploring ways to combat labour and skill shortages and utilising the changing face of worker mobility.

The challenge is not just attracting human capital as the labour force but also strengthening the skill base of the population which is already in the location as “human capital is the most important ingredient for long-run regional economic prosperity.”134 Education and skills training is named as a critical pathway for improving productivity toward economic growth. Developing human capital helps to advance innovation and technology uptake.135

Sustainability There is a hope that a positive outcome of depopulation is improved sustainability. Unfortunately, preliminary conclusions from assessments of sustainability in depopulating locations suggested that shrinking populations do not necessarily make districts more sustainable. Vacant green spaces are not necessarily a positive improvement. The most positive outcome in a Netherlands study of sustainability was that demolishing poor housing can physically improve the district. Creating a sustainable local environment in a shrinking area seems to be a more challenging and a different process than the same task in a growing area. Costs involved in the adopting various measures can also be a complication136.

The need for swift intervention The speed of depopulation needs to be matched by the speed of intervention. The speed of intervention can be crucial to the success of strategies to slow or reverse depopulation in cases of sudden external shocks. As mentioned in 2.2 ‘Drivers of depopulation’ when short-term drivers, such as external shocks, coincide with downward trending long term drivers, there is reduced ability for towns to recover. Depopulation in these cases may be quite rapid, for instance, when a one industry town loses its only industry to economic restructuring or a significant natural hazard shock destroys

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the prevailing industry. McArthur et al. (2013) shows in theory that once a rural area has been totally depopulated this state is difficult to reverse. Their models indicated that timing of interventions is crucial. For instance, when a peripheral area had experienced a shock, such as losing a key factory, a roading improvement intervention made a significant difference to maintaining the local population but only when it was completed with a short period of time after the loss the business137. The Ryori Port Rehabilitation Project in Japan is a case in point (see Appendix 4.3).

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Summary

• Quality of life as an emerging key economic driver. • Quality of life can be improved in declining areas through social strategies. • In the regions it is easier to achieve improved quality of life than slowing population decline. • Social policies were more effective than building and upgrading the built environment. • Strong social connections (social capital) enable towns to survive external shocks. • Youth initiatives led to success of small towns in Australia138. • A positive outcome is the ability to demolish poor housing which can physically improve the

district. • Smart shrinkage has not stopped population decline. • Vacant green spaces are not necessarily a positive improvement. • Shrinking populations do not appear to make districts more sustainable. • Planning paradigms need to change from separation of activities to consolidation of

activities in areas of decline. • Governments need to change their legal structures to allow for consolidation. • Emphasising shrinkage can become a self-fulfilling prophecy139. • Success depends on what you are measuring – for instance, a village in Germany built an off-

grid electricity and heating supply that successfully supplied the residents but only with the input of vast amounts of technical expertise and higher level funding.

• Costs involved in green infrastructure provision and green downsizing solutions can be prohibitive.

• Viable adaption options for public service provisions are: improving the accessibility and flexibility of infrastructure, reducing and/or combining it, offering temporary and/or mobile provision of services.140

Key finding: None of the accepting strategies that were identified was able to stop population decline, it is easier to achieve improved quality of life than slowing population decline.

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9.3. To retire towns or not to retire – that is the question! Many towns across the industrialised world are simply ceasing to exist. In Japan, a report released in 1999 stated that 191 villages disappeared in the previous 10 years. Another Japanese government report in 2006, specified that 7878 communities had more than 50 per cent of their population over the age of 65 and 423 of these communities will disappear by 2016. Many of these communities are in terminal decline, having ‘reached their limits’141. Russia has experienced severe decline of regional areas. Over the period 2002-2010, 8500 villages ceased to exist142. Regions of the United States, such as North Dakota, are dotted with crumbling towns. Funerals are frequent and visitors are not. Buildings are burnt down at times to ease the burden and suicides are common, attributed to financial worries and loneliness. The young and mobile have left for greener pastures. Those people who don’t have the resources to change their situation are left behind. Often the elderly people left behind end up living in substandard buildings until they pass away. The built environment is left where it is143.

Exit solutions? There is no planned response to manage the situation. The environmental scan did not identify any comprehensive exit strategies for towns, undertaken by governments in response to absolute decline.

Suggestions from the literature for exit strategies are:

Providing subsidies to encourage people to move to larger regional centres Relocate towns that are flood prone or expensive to service144 Enabling people to commute to work outside of their community145

There are strong arguments in the literature for and against shutting down towns that have reached terminal decline.

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People don't want to move away from their

homes - social, emotional and historical connections

People can become trapped in a cycle of

lowering house prices and loss of jobs and need help

to relocate

Depopulation doesn't lead to sustainability

and declining areas can be ecological disasters

Depopulation can reduce pressure on the environment and allow

it to recover

Economic argument

Social argument

Ecological argument

Declining regions are too expensive to prop

up

Thriving regions are important for national

competitiveness

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Other arguments:

FOR:

• Governments shouldn’t bail out failing towns, it is a waste of resources.146 • The decline and ultimate demise of many smaller country towns is part of an inevitable

historical process and should be accepted as such.147

AGAINST:

• Historic preservationists don’t like it • People turn down money to move to busier places148 • It is impossible to remove a district or city in one single try149

A new debate has emerged in German political and academic circles about whether the old concept of equivalent living conditions in depopulating areas should be replaced with a minimum standard of living150. What this should look like and whether it is achievable remains to be seen.

In areas that have almost completely emptied out there needs to be some sort of welfare provision and physical support for those people left behind. Can we create a social fund that will enable people who want to leave but do not have the finances, to relocate to a viable community so that we do not see the despair and deprivation that is being noted in places such as the US?

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10. Key themes for success

10.1. Key themes across all strategies Over 40 case studies from OECD countries were analysed for their key themes. Many strategies and tools can be utilised in both a countering or accepting concept but it is important to acknowledge that the underlying drivers of change will in most cases continue to challenge responses. An Australian study of 14 small communities that experienced regeneration noted that none of the communities felt that they could ‘rest on their laurels’. The journey is a continuous one151.

Similarities between case studies emerged with themes that were common regardless of circumstances or whether they were are countering or accepting strategy. Reforming governance arrangements to enable adaptive practices appears to be of greater importance than any other theme152.

Figure 13: Key themes for success

Governance Governing regional development requires cooperation and integration between different levels of government, stakeholders in many sectors, civil society and market actors153154. Putting resources into removing barriers and increasing subnational level capacity and capability “will improve service delivery and encourage more effective investment155.” Cross sector approaches across several policy sectors showed more potential for success than single policies with single solutions156. Case studies analysis has found that successful regional policies were supported by national policies157. Some policies and strategies will only be able to be implemented if the national level policy is reformed to allow the freedom and adaptability to undertake a task at regional or local level158. For instance, to be able to translate the idea of off-grid towns from Germany to New Zealand, there needs to be acceptance and an appropriate legal framework at central government level to facilitate and support such an endeavour. However, it is best if this isn’t translated into a top down response as when higher level governments “play a strong role in shaping regional governments, the outcome is unlikely to favour stressed areas and populations within the region159.”

Governance

Community engagement and

participation

Funding and expertise

Utilisation of particular local

situation Leadership

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Funding and expertise Most successful strategies at local level required tapping into a regional or national level funding programme and source of expertise. In an Australian study of 14 successful small towns it was found that “all the communities have been successful in cultivating allies, actively seeking information, networking with outside supporters and securing outside funding160.” The OECD (2014) states that effective public investment is a key to unlocking growth in any region but requires considerable cooperation and coordination across all levels of government161. However, this needs to be coupled with local investment that encourages community buy-in162.

Community engagement and participation Successful strategies required harnessing the participation of the local business, community and local government. International literature has shown that social capital (the community) is essential for success. For instance, the community is more likely to participate if they feel that their contribution is valued and it will improve the situation. “They are more likely to support the efforts of others when they trust the integrity of the effort. They are more likely to undertake new projects if they believe projects succeeded in the past.163”

Dremel (2013) found that a key element in successful implementation of alternative infrastructure provision was civil society. “The actor coming into focus most by taking over new roles in being successful in increasing innovation in the project as civil society.164”

Utilisation of particular local situation Utilising the local situation is essential for success. For instance, the town of Waihi is experiencing a resurgence of economic activity due to several factors. They have utilised a central government initiative for building a cycleway bringing local and international tourists into the area, their position as a cross roads to attractive seaside communities and their heritage as a past and present gold mining town165.

Leadership American and Australian research found that success of regional development was dependent on committed quality business and community leadership that is continually renewed. “Leadership is the key to maintaining the community’s attitude. Communities that resist change, ignore new opportunities, focus on threats and refuse to take any risks are in serious trouble166.”

The McKinsey Report of regional development in Australia made the statement that “given the task of rejuvenating a region and the choice of $50 million, or $2 million and 20 committed local leaders, we would chose the smaller amount of money and the committed leaders167.”

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10.2. Local community requirements to tackle community change There is extensive literature on factors that make communities vibrant or resilient. The nature of the local community is essential to achieving any goals. Some common community characteristics are:

• Attitudes of optimism, empowerment and interdependence • Well-developed problems solving skills and a spirit of self-reliance • Viewing challenges as opportunities instead of seeing themselves as victims • Organisational arrangements that foster community participation • Leadership - shared community-wide leadership and skilled individual leaders. • Strong social capital168

Australian research showed that communities that have managed to succeed in regeneration went through some key processes to achieve their aims.

• Building a shared vision of the best community future • Community ownership of the planning process • Commitment to funding the programme locally • Local council support and involvement • Encouraging participation from a cross section of the community • Building an active committee with representation from local government, business and

community groups • Broad community support for the programme • Brainstorming with the community for ideas • Thinking outside the box • Working through a series of steps to identify opportunities and organize actions • Focusing on the communities assets rather than problems • Knowing the local economy • Focusing on the achievable before moving to the desirable outcomes • Thinking long term, not short term • Being realistic about what can be achieved • Measuring outcomes and adjusting accordingly • Keeping the community informed • Celebrating successes169

These ideas of community development need to be reframed into an action plan for community change in a declining population situation. Section 11 will examine the Waikato Region and make suggestions for a conceptual model for a comprehensive strategic response. This is followed by a local level community action plan for activating community change.

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10.3. Transferability There are essentially three levels of governance in New Zealand, national, regional and local. The policies will need to be targeted at the specific level of governance that is applicable. If a strategy requires national level governance change then by definition the strategy will take more coordination and cooperation to be achieved. Some individual strategies and tools may be directly translated to the New Zealand context.

The ability to transfer good practices will rely on:

• National framework National government institutional structures Strong national policies National funding streams

• Regional guidance Regional government institutional structures Strong regional policies Regional funding streams

• Integration and cooperation across all actors and levels • Utilisation of the particular local scenario170

Figure 14: Key elements for transferability of town and individual policy strategies

Generally, planning and economic strategies may be translated from other countries to New Zealand at the regional level as local governments have the legal framework to make decisions at this level. Promotion strategies require the cooperation of local government and business and do not require central government input, except in the area of immigration policy. Some social initiatives will be able to be applied at local level, while others will require governance changes. The most challenging initiatives are those that require a complete rethink of how our governance and planning frameworks operate, particularly for combining services as the current legal arrangements tend to focus on the separation of activities.

National framework

Enabling legal framework Enabling policies Funding sources

Regional guidance

Enabling policies Available expertise Funding sources

Local initiative

Utilisation of local opportunities Leadership Local participation Local context

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10.4. Summary There is evidence that economies no longer operate in the same way as the past. Globalisation and all its associated attributes has changed the behaviour of human and financial capital flows. Research suggests that human and creative capital drive economic growth rather than being a result of such growth171. Strategies that were used in the past to regenerate communities may no longer be successful. What is emerging is the rise of an expectation of quality of life and this appears to be driving rather than following economic development. People now expect to enjoy the place that they live in, not live there just for employment172. However, to achieve success in building attractive places to live with a strong community spirit there needs to be access to funding and expertise. Not all communities have the elements to succeed in the New Economy, especially those that have passed a number of negative demographic indicators.

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11. The Waikato Region

11.1. The New Zealand context The economy in New Zealand is primarily land or environmental resource based. In New Zealand our export earnings are strongly linked to primary production from the regions. In 2014 New Zealand was still earning 47% of its export earnings from primary production (a drop from 88% in 1964), with tourism making up a further 12%173. This is only possible with economically healthy regional areas.

There is a strong symbiotic relationship between the cities and the rural areas which add value to industry production chains by providing the desk based services that enable us to sell to the world. “Farmers, graziers, horticulturalists and tourism operators need to be at the top of their game in managing and conserving their resources, in optimising production versus market demands, in arranging just in time logistics, in reaching new and more valuable markets etc. All this already requires, and will continue to require, city based specialised services174.”One cannot live without the other. “Over 26% of the nation’s tradable sector GDP an employment is directly located in the heartland areas.175”

11.2. Waikato demographic and economic indicators The Waikato region is a medium-size economy and on the whole is thriving and growing in both population and economy. Around 9.4% of New Zealand’s population lives in the region and it provides 9.1% of national employment176.

Table 14: Population growth – Waikato Region

Total Population Change in numbers Change in per cent 2013 Census 403 638 + 22 815 + 6.0% Source: Statistics NZ

Table 15: Waikato Region GDP

Regional GDP GDP per capita Change in GDP 2007-13 2013 8.5% of national GDP $42 968 + 22.1% Source: Statistics NZ

Table 16: Top three industries share of Waikato Region’s GDP

Agriculture Manufacturing Forestry, fishing, mining, electricity, gas, water and waste services

2011 12.5% 11.5% 9.7% Source: Statistics NZ

At a sub-regional level, the picture is not so robust. Although the region as a whole has grown, the growth has been disparate and centred around urban hubs with many of the more peripheral areas shrinking substantially over the period 2001-2013 (see Figure 16).

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Figure 15: Percentage change in the Estimated Resident Population of Census Area Units (CAU), 2001-2006 and 2006-2013: Waikato Region

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11.3. The growth agenda In 2013 the New Zealand government began a Business Growth Agenda with six key elements: export markets, innovation, infrastructure, skilled and safe workplaces, natural resources, and capital. The central government has acknowledged that New Zealand’s regions are diverse and each has a specialisation that contributes to the national economy. The government’s aim is to enable the regions to grow and succeed so that New Zealand can continue to perform well177. Central government has a large number of programmes and initiatives that may bring positive change to declining areas of the Waikato Region.

Table 17: Business Growth Agenda actions relevant to the Waikato Region

Waikato Expressway Road of National Significance Ultra-Fast Broadband in Hamilton, Cambridge, Te Awamutu, Tokoroa and Taupō Rural Broadband upgrade through Waikato Waikato sections of the National Cycle Trail National Science Challenges Food Innovation Network New Zealand Apprenticeships and Apprenticeship Reboot Increased Youth Guarantee places Develop creative industries vocational pathways Expand trades and services academies’ flexible school-based provision Lift Māori school leaver achievement Māori and Pasifika Trades Training Freshwater reform Primary Growth Partnership to lift private sector investment in innovation Leverage cultural and asset base of Māori economy for growth Aquaculture reform Regional Investment Attraction Programme Callaghan Innovation R&D Grants Programme

Source: Regional Economic Activity Report 2014

In particular, the government is focusing on attracting investment to take advantage of regional specialities178. Regions may be pitted against regions as several have similar specialities. More peripheral areas are still likely to lose out as the programme merely explains the context and specialities of the regions to enable direct investment from national and international companies. The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) is leading a programme of Regional Growth Studies to “evaluate opportunities to increase investment, employment and incomes in the regions179.” These studies are expected to provide information for local stakeholders on economic opportunities and actions that that will stimulate economic development180. There are also many useful initiatives at a regional and local level within the Waikato that are in operation at the present time.

What appears to be missing from this strong countering top down viewpoint is consideration of the underlying historical, economic, social and demographic drivers that are putting communities under pressure in the first place, and whether these can be addressed.

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Will central government measures cause small towns on the periphery of the Waikato region to grow or will they only serve to strengthen the urban hubs? Will the strong become stronger and the weak, weaker?

11.4. The scope of change that can be achieved The Waikato region is a region of opposites. The picture painted by research is not a positive one for peripheral areas. The communities that have the most potential for turning around their situation are those that have less problems to start with181.

Declining areas that have the potential for retention of population and positive growth are those that have significant factors that can support their community regeneration plans. Studies have shown that those towns decide to take action before they have passed too many negative demographic indicators are sometimes able to regenerate. The strength of the social capital of the community is a major factor for success.

Table 18: Range of factors that support community regeneration

Socio-demographic • Few negative demographic indicators • Few negative socio-economic factors

Location • Are on major transport routes • Have high amenity values • Have good services • Are close to vibrant urban hubs

Community – social capital • Attitudes of optimism, empowerment and interdependence • Viewing challenges as opportunities instead of seeing themselves as victims • Have a community that has strong leadership, optimism, problem solving skills, self-reliance

and community ownership • Organisational arrangements that foster community participation • Leadership - shared community-wide leadership and skilled individual leaders • Have active local actors in internal and external networks • Have a well-developed self-help capacity to stimulate employment growth

Resources and Economy • Have the ability to exploit social and cultural capital to stimulate employment growth • Have the ability to change functions to match the global marketplace • Have the ability to exploit rural amenities and cultural capital to stimulate employment

growth in tourism

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few negative demographic indicators

few negative socio-economic factors good location

opportunities strong community positive outlook

However, it needs to be borne in mind that places that regenerate will not return to a previous state as:

• Areas that begin to regenerate are often only attracting people from the region surrounding them182.

• Places that regenerate find that the newcomers do not occupy the same niche as the traditional society183. They have different spending and living patterns and will not necessarily provide the economic opportunities that the community is seeking.184

For some sub-regional areas, both the long term and short term drivers are too strong to adopt a plan of regeneration that ignores the underlying processes. To do this could potentially load the local population with unserviceable debt. In severely declining peripheral areas of the Waikato the best that can be hoped for is:

In the context of national population growth and strong immigration – less decline in the peripheral areas than would otherwise be the case. In other words, the peripheral areas will still decline due to the underlying drivers, but not so rapidly.

Improving social connectedness and quality of life.

Constraints on growth The Waikato region will be restricted in its ability to further increase GDP from its primary sector as most of the productive land is already well developed. Recently the region has suffered from drought which has impacted on its primary production185. Growth in the primary sector will also be retrained by the limits of the environment’s carrying capacity, particularly soil and water.

Figure 16: Summary of factors for community regeneration

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11.5. Building a comprehensive strategy for the Waikato Region Some economists believe that a competitive viewpoint will ultimately result in misallocation of resources in redundant policy programmes. They state that a better strategy is to build an integrated approach which encompasses a ‘mega economic region’ with the dominant city (Hamilton) as the centre point of the region. Investment and economic development strategies should then focus on the sub-region’s place context competitive strengths186.

Putting all the elements together, a comprehensive strategic response requires assessment of the regional and local contexts, integration across levels, actors and policy sectors, and should provide support to local communities so that they have the tools and resources to succeed.

Figure 17: Building a comprehensive strategy

Review

Measure Adjust

Develop appropriate cross policy sector initiatives

Governance Planning Economic Promotion Social

Identify local issues and opportunities

Drivers and influences Demographic indicators Place opportunities and specialites

Support stronger local communities

Optimism Problem solving Leadership Community participation

Develop regional guidance

Enabling policies Provide expertise Provide funding sources

Lobby for an enabling national framework

Legal framework Enabling policies Funding sources

Determine the policy response

Countering Accepting

Identify the regional and local level place context

Drivers and influences Demographic indicators Place opportunities and specialities

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11.6. Action plan for local level community change Outlined below is a suggested action plan. This is a pragmatic approach that focuses on positive change in the face of declining population at sub-regional level. This plan aims to use the best of both countering and accepting strategies but acknowledges that ‘success’ may be measured in quality of life, a healthy environment and high quality amenities rather than increasing economic outcomes. There is a need to examine what can be resuscitated, what can be combined and what may need to be shut down.

Figure 18: Key steps in community plan for change

Accept

• Accept that prosperity may need to have a different appearance than in the past • Accept that peak population in peripheral towns was a hallmark of the Old Economy when

New Zealand was the bread basket of the UK • Accept that the existing infrastructure is a product of those historical situations • Accept population ageing

Engage

Engage with the local community to see what ideas they have, develop local community leaders, train and mentor. Are there people in the community that are looking for leadership opportunities?

Utilise

Identify key industries, natural resources, amenities that could provide new functions for the location.

Attract

Use people based initiatives and social strategies for attracting newcomers, rather than building new attractions, unless there is a very clear opportunity, such as capitalising on the national cycleway network.

Use targeted migration integration initiatives in places with low unemployment and a high number of job or skill vacancies.

Retain

Focus on strengthening the community’s skills base, social inclusion and connectedness through – youth initiatives, transport initiatives, educational opportunities, skills training, community groups, and senior groups.

Accept Engage Utilise Attract Retain Maintain Provide Retire Wait

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Maintain

Critically examine what can be resuscitated, what can be combined and what may need to be shut down. Look at best practise examples of new models for services ie. citizen buses, telecare, off-grid communities, temporary and/or mobile provision. Are any of these new models able to be used in the location?

Provide

Look for initiatives to provide for the ageing population ie. providing silver learning opportunities, mobility scooter friendly accesses, transport initiatives, employment for older people.

Retire

Lobby central and local government to develop a fund to enable derelict abandoned buildings to be demolished.

If the costs are too great for demolition, explore other options such as beautifying buildings by growing creepers over unsightly buildings. This technique has been used in Germany.

Many former abandoned locations have been reinvented as historic sites after several decades.

Wait

Good quality buildings may not be used now but should not be demolished as in the future there may be a new function for them.

Summary Towns are like businesses – they need to keep reinventing themselves in the global marketplace to remain competitive. However, some communities do not have the functional elements to succeed. In these cases, where these communities do not have a role in building national competitiveness, the hard discussions need to take place about the historical reasons the community is in that location and whether it is still meeting the needs of residents and the country. We need to have a discussion about whether there is a place for exit strategies and what these could look like. There needs to be a discussion about what can be done to help the people left behind to live in a socially acceptable, safe and dignified manner.

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12. Conclusion Changing settlement patterns are a product of historical placement, economic functions and realities, political and social changes and demographic trends. Settlement patterns will continue to change but the symbiotic relationship between the cities and regions is essential for prosperity. Martinez-Fernandez, et al., 2012 states that it is essential that political strategies and guidelines are developed to tackle demographic change or “communities and local areas risk not only loosing competitiveness or becoming disconnected from the globalisation grid but chiefly becoming further rooted in population, economic and employment shrinkage.”187

A wide range of responses to depopulation across the OECD countries were examined. Some countries put a great deal of effort into providing resources, funding and expertise to encourage innovation in their periphery weak areas. Countries that follow neoliberal policies more closely tend towards an expectation of self-help for local communities188.

Several themes for success were evident from case studies, governance, access to funding and expertise, community engagement, utilisation of the local scenario and leadership. In the past provision of most policy sectors has been treated separately, such as housing, healthcare, education, and water. Reforming governance arrangements to enable flexible and adaptive planning across policy sectors appears to be of greater importance than any other theme189.

What improves the situation for one location may not work for another. A level of realism needs to be applied to the problem of declining peripheral areas of the Waikato. In declining areas we are unlikely to ever see again the population levels of the heyday of primary production in the 1960s. The infrastructure that was built at the peak in small towns across New Zealand is mostly still there. We need to accept that and focus on what needs to happen now to keep our heartland beating.

The most practical solution to depopulation is to accept that it is an issue, pragmatically look at what can be resuscitated, what can be combined and what might be shut down. However, instead of this process being undertaken in different government departments, on different governmental levels with limited community input in a disjointed, haphazard way, each town should be facilitated to build their own solution with support and resources from central and local government. It would also be beneficial to examine the role each town plays in the overall region and national context as to continue down New Zealand’s competitive free market approach will only lead to ‘winning towns’ and ‘losing towns’, with those who win being those that become adept at accessing funding, expertise and tapping niche markets190.

At present New Zealand is not depopulating on a national level, so we have some time. Further down the track there may come a time that some areas need to be retired, but only if they are not important to the entire chain of production.

There comes a point when some communities are no longer viable. Thousands of villages and towns across Russia, Japan, Canada, Australia and the US have either completely lost their populations or are in danger of doing so. There are many examples of vulnerable people being left behind in broken down buildings. Towns are like businesses – they need to keep reinventing themselves in the global marketplace to remain competitive. However, some communities do not have the foundational elements to succeed. In these cases, where these communities do not have a function in building national competitiveness, the hard discussions need to take place about the historical reasons the

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community is in that location and whether it is meeting the needs of residents and the country. We need to have a discussion about whether there is a place for exit strategies and what these could look like. There needs to be a discussion about what can be done to help the people left behind in a socially acceptable and dignified way.

Matanle (2010) contends that “the management of shrinking processes is therefore not a question of choice, but a challenge that must be met.”191 At the end of the day do we have the humanity to provide for those who are left behind?

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Appendix 1 – Country Profiles

1.1 Australia Australia Regional level depopulation Governance Structure Federation Layers of Government 3 Country level policy response

Counter/Intervention – competitiveness Low intervention – free market policies Regionally driven – some state facilitation

Level of intervention Federal government supports community development and engagement, state governments have their own regional development initiatives. Interventions have been limited in scope and financial commitment192. There are regional migration incentives and special Visa categories for international migrants.

Recent policy developments

Australia is primarily focused on a paradigm of growth193. A new ministry was created in 2013 responsible for regional development covering - infrastructure, regional development, local government, territories and disaster recovery. Most jurisdictions have adopted a ‘bottom up’, partnership, local context approach; with self-help for regions and communities; a focus on delivering services and managing change, as well as on regional leadership; and strategies based on developing regional competitiveness194.

1.2 Canada Canada Regional level depopulation Governance Structure Federation Layers of Government 3 Country level policy response

Counter/Intervention – competitiveness Medium intervention Federal facilitation

Level of intervention Six Federal regional development agencies support regional development policy in addition to the actions delegated to provinces/localities. Federal RDAs focus on supporting innovation, trade and investment, business development, and community/local economic development.


Western Innovation Initiative (WINN) provides incentives to get new technologies to the marketplace. Particular focus on innovation, skills development, economic diversification, productivity and business development. Supporting the development of rural business. The Community Futures Program promotes bottom-up economic development in rural areas. Focus on an integrated approach to rural policy so that rural priorities are taken into consideration in the development of government policy, with an aim for policy coherence across ministries (OECD 2006).

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1.3 Germany Germany National level depopulation Governance Structure Federation Layers of Government 4 Country level policy response

Accepting – managing and utilising High intervention Regionally driven Place based responses

Level of intervention Although Germany is actively managing shrinkage with a particular focus on housing issues195, the regions are responsible for mergers of local governments and most tasks are delegated to the regions. The regions are developing strategies to manage depopulation.


Reduction in investment subsidies in 2013. Funding comes from the EU Structural Funds. There is a programme for the Improvement of Regional Economic Structure between the federal government and the regions. The main regional policy instruments focus on improving conditions in weaker areas to allow economic development196. Germany developed the “REGIONEN AKTIV” programme to address inadequacies in existing agricultural and other sectoral policy approaches. Here a number of small model areas (“Regionen”) were selected and local partnerships established to improve the focus of public policy for the region. (OECD 2006)”

1.4 Japan Japan National level depopulation Governance Structure Unitary Layers of Government 3 Country level policy response

Counter – competitiveness Accepting – managing and utilising Medium - High Intervention State direction but regionally driven

Level of intervention There is a wide range of responses in Japan to decline from denial to accepting and looking at exit strategies – shutting down towns. National Spatial Strategies outlines grand designs at national level for next 10 years. Eight regional plans define designs for individual regions under the National Spatial Planning Act. Several laws govern specific types of regions and frameworks for development.


Local government reforms and mergers (municipalities reduced from 3 232 in 1999 to 1 718 in 2014. Revitalisation of regions through: competiveness, promotion of private investment, response to ageing communities, response to energy issues. Future City initiative – sharing experiences from cities that have overcome key regional challenges A Grand Design for National Spatial Policy was published in July 2014. Review of statutory national spatial plan to be launched

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1.5 Netherlands Netherlands Regional level depopulation Governance Structure Unitary Layers of Government 3 Country level policy response

Counter/Intervention – competitiveness Low intervention – free market policies Regionally driven

Level of intervention National level policy “Top Sector” policy focuses on supporting sectors that achieved the most for the Netherlands economically and maximising these. The regions are responsible for strategies for regional development or shrinkage.


The Netherlands has been pushing a decentralisation agenda and a number of functions have been shifted to the subnational government levels – spatial planning, regional development, traffic and transport, and environment (OECD 2014). The government released the National Policy Strategy for Infrastructure and Spatial Planning (SVIR) in 2012. This document outlines the national priorities by the central government. Governance structures are in the process of being reformed to reduce the number of provinces and municipalities as well as removal of other administrative bodies that exist between the provinces and local government (OECD 2014).

1.6 UK UK Regional level depopulation Governance Structure Unitary Layers of Government 4 Country level policy response

Denial/Ignore/Counter/Intervention State driven and state directed Low intervention

Level of intervention Some place based policies but mostly top down. Large scale reorder of local agencies that deal with regional development. Some communities will be allowed greater planning scope at local level.


Since 2010 the nine regional development agencies have been abolished and focus has been shifted to local enterprise partnerships instead that will be able to decide on local priorities for investment in infrastructure. No clear regional development policy framework since abolishment. A Technology Strategy Board was created in 2013 to build innovation. 24 enterprise zones were created with tax incentives and simplified local planning regulations. Scotland has been actively countering depopulation.

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1.7 US US Regional level depopulation Governance Structure Federation Layers of Government 4 Country level policy response

Ignore/Counter/Intervention/Accept – free market policies Low intervention – decentralised Regionally or local level driven

Level of intervention There is a wide range of responses to depopulation. For the most part there is passive restructuring or an expectation of adaption. Some areas are attempting to counter or actively accept with strategies that deal with reducing infrastructure or developing places that are attractive for ageing populations.


At the federal level there has been some attempt at greater coordination and integration of policies for regional development. There is a shift to place based policy thinking. There is a greater focus on regional innovation clusters. White House’s Neighbourhood Revitalisation Initiative – areas called promise zones – try to attract private investment, develop affordable housing and create jobs.

Source for all country profiles: OECD (2014).

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Appendix 2 – Index of case studies

Type Case study level

Motivator Location Case study Reference

All L Countering Australia 14 case studies of small Australian communities that have regenerated

(Kenyon, et al., 2001)

All N/R Countering Australia Comparative study of 10 shrinking cities - analysis of their policies and strategies for dealing with decline

(Weyman & Martinez-Fernandez, 2012)

E N Countering Australia Regional partnership programme www.regionalpartnerships.gov.au

E R Countering Australia – Northwest Tasmania

Regional economic restructuring as a response to demographic change

McDonald et al. 2013

E N/R Countering Canada, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, UK, US

Competitive regional clusters OECD 2007 Competitive Regional Clusters

E R Countering Finland Inmigration and labour market intergration

(Johnsen & Perjo, 2014)

E L Accepting Germany Housing market rebalance http://www.ufz.de/shrinksmart/index.php?en=18737

E L Accepting Germany, US Developing silver economy (Haase, et al., 2012) E L Countering Japan - Iwate

prefecture, Tohoku region

Economic Recovery Fund for investing in the impact zone, The Ryori Port Rehabilitation Project

http://kizunafoundation.org/current/; http://kizunafoundation.org/traumatized-port-struggles-to-stay-together-move-on/

E L Countering Japan - Ishinomaki, Miyagi Prefecture

Rebuilding fish factory http://kizunafoundation.org/traumatized-port-struggles-to-stay-together-move-on/

E R Countering Japan, Vietnam, India, Thailand

Environmental and economic competitiveness

(Anbumozhi, 2008) (GEC, 2005)

E L Countering Netherlands Workforce development - targeting skill shortages

(da Costa & Meyer, 2013)

http://www.regionalpartnerships.gov.au/

http://www.ufz.de/shrinksmart/index.php?en=18737

http://kizunafoundation.org/traumatized-port-struggles-to-stay-together-move-on/


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FSo5YRkrI0

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E L Countering US – Missouri - Branson

Tourism – economic development finance

http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/branson.php

E L Countering US – Missouri - Chillicothe

Business retention incentives and expansion

http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/chillicothe.php

E L Countering US – North Carolina - Ayden

Downtown revitalization: Objective: to create a welcoming place for businesses to prosper and for local residents to shop and spend time.

http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/pdf/ayden.pdf

E L Countering US – North Carolina - Bakersville

Tourism, downtown development, organizational development

http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/bakers_hayes.php

E L Countering US – North Carolina - Hayesville

Tourism, downtown development, organizational development


E L Countering US – North Carolina – Sparta

Cluster based development http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/sparta.php

E L Countering US – Virginia – Big Stone Gap

Eco-tourism http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/big_stone_gap.php

E L Countering US – Virginia – Cape Charles

Industrial development http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/cape_charles.php

E, G, Pl, Pr

R Countering Finland Smart Specialisation (Midtkandal & Sorvik, 2012)

E,S L Countering US – North Dakota - Rugby

Workforce Development http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/rugby.php

G R Accepting Denmark Health care reform (Johnsen & Perjo, 2014) G R Accepting Finland-Sweden Cross country border health care (Johnsen & Perjo, 2014) G L Accepting Germany Service /technical infrastructure

provision reform (Dremel, 2013)

G N Accepting Japan Reconfiguring settlement patterns for sustainability

(Matanle & Rausch, 2011)

G L, N Countering/Accepting

Netherlands Improving affordability (OECD, 2007)











http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/sparta.php

http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/sparta.php

http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/big_stone_gap.php

http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/big_stone_gap.php

http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/cape_charles.php

http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/cape_charles.php

http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/rugby.php

http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/rugby.php

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G, E R Countering Netherlands Improving regional economic competitiveness

(OECD, 2013)

G, P, E

L Countering Canada - Morden, Manitoba

Immigration initiative http://www.mordenimmigration.com/; http://www.cicnews.com/2014/09/immigration-morden-manitoba-093839.html;

G, P, E

N Countering Canada Targeting international tertiary students in the hope that they will stay

http://www.cicnews.com/2015/02/advantages-studying-canada-024500.html

G, PL, E, S

R Accepting Netherlands - Municipalities of Heerlen, Kerkrade and Sittard-Gellen

Redevelopment plans that focus on quality of life

(Dreijerink & Kortman, 2012)

G, S, Pl

R Countering/Accepting

UK - Scotland – North East Scotland

Education provision, Service provision reform, healthcare reform

(Galjaard, et al., 2012)

G, S, Pl, E

R Accepting Germany - Brandenburg

Reducing population decline (Galjaard, et al., 2012)

P N/R Countering Norway Regional attractiveness (Johnsen & Perjo, 2014) P R Countering Norway Place marketing - Improving regional

attractiveness (Johnsen & Perjo, 2014)

Pl L Accepting Germany, US Temporary use strategies for cleared or abandoned buildings

(Hollander, et al., 2009), (Rink, et al., 2012)

Pl L Accepting US Land banking (Hollander, et al., 2009) Pl L Countering US - Helena-West

Helena Strategic Planning http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/hel

ena.php

Pl L Accepting US - Nancy; Ruhr, Germany

Redevelopment for an ageing population

(Haase, et al., 2012), (Kresl & Ietri, 2010)

Pl L Accepting US – Youngston, Ohio Smart shrinkage (Boardman, 2008), (Hollander, et al., 2009); (Shrink Smart the Governance of Shrinkage http://www.ufz.de/shrinksmart/index.php?en=18737).

Pl L Accepting US, Germany Right sizing infrastructure http://www.ufz.de/shrinksmart/index.php?en=18737



http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/helena.php

http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/helena.php

http://www.ufz.de/shrinksmart/index.php?en=18737

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Pl L Accepting US, Philadelphia; Germany

Green infrastructure (Hollander, et al., 2009)

Pl, Pr

R Countering Netherlands Development of new built environment to attract in-migrants

(da Costa & Meyer, 2013)

Pl, S L Countering/Accepting

US - Saratoga County Land use and transport integration initiatives

http://www.cdtcmpo.org/linkage/exit9/summary.pdf

Pr L Countering Spain – city of Avilés Place marketing (Haase, et al., 2012) Pr L Countering Sweden – town of

Lekeberg Place marketing – attraction subsidies (Haase, et al., 2012)

S R Countering Sweden Promotion of social mobility and inclusion

(Johnsen & Perjo, 2014)

S L Accepting Germany Transport initiatives – social inclusion - accessibility

(Dremel, 2013)

S L Accepting UK, Scotland, Glasgow

Cultural regeneration (Hollander, et al., 2009)

Key to Appendix 2:

E = economic, G = governance, Pl = planning, Pr = promotion, S = social

L = local, R = regional, N = national

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Appendix 3 – Selected regional cross sector case studies

3.1 Germany – Brandenburg Region Motivator: Countering and Accepting

Context: The economy of Brandenburg was strongly affected by the German reunification. Berlin is the central agglomeration in Brandenburg, a peripheral former East German area. The former East German industrial economies could not compete with western industries and collapsed. Berlin does not contain a strong economic structure and therefore there is little spill over from the economic conditions in the city to the region itself. Brandenburg has focused particularly on policies to reduce population decline.

Issues: • Structural depopulation and ageing

Policy measures: Operational demographic policy check

o A check against demographic indicators is used whenever investment decisions need to be made to make sure they are viable.

Built environment o Financed by additional taxation, an integrated programme in response to the German

reunification that deals with: vacant housing, private house improvement, inner city renewal, renewal of public space and derelict land.

Economic and business o A turnaround from the decentralisation agenda to one of “strengthening of the strong” o Focus on a policy of “from outside to inside” – strengthening of the inner cities through

retail trade.

Education o Transforming schools – keeping schools open, reducing physical deterioration of the

schools – the state as a directive role in this.

Welfare and care services o There is a policy shift away from the responsibility of health care for an ageing population

focused on the health care sector to there being a general social responsibility and informal care.

Outcomes: The policies have not slowed population decline, however they have improved visual effects and quality of life. The quality of the living environment has improved but there has been criticism that there has not been enough focus on improving general wellbeing. References: (Galjaard, et al., 2012)

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3.2 Netherlands – Sustainability of redevelopment plans Location: Municipalities of Heerlen, Kerkrade and Sittard-Gellen

Motivator: Accepting – improving quality of life

Context: These three municipalities are expected to shrink significantly over the next ten years. In expectation of this occurrence the three areas are developing plans to improve quality of life for their residents.

Policy measures: Governance

o Clustering services in multiple facility buildings – primary schools and daycare, healthcare facilities and supermarkets.

Built environment - planning o Demolishing houses with fewer houses being rebuilt than demolished o Development of green space – pocket parks o Create a green corridor as a link between districts o Use shallow gully vacant spaces to create small lakes as a temporary water buffer or

overflow o Separate rainwater from roofs and streets from the sewerage system so that this water can

be used in the small lakes o Demolish the lowest quality public housing and replace with insulated homes. o Pavements are being adjusted to cope with an anticipated influx of mobility scooters.

Economic and business o Encourage existing businesses to hire the long term unemployed. o Create on job learning opportunities for young people so that they do not have to leave the

location to receive their education. o Encourage retailers to locate in the central town areas not in the outer districts.

Social o Involving the residents in the redevelopment plans o Local residents maintaining public space o Providing services for young people to meet o Transport – light rail stations o Transport – improve accessibility of the districts for cyclists

Timeframe: Sustainability analysis undertaken in 2010. Outcomes: The current situation and the three redevelopment plans were assessed with a sustainability performance measurement incorporating 24 aspects that cover the areas of planet, people and profit. These measures were compared to the performance of an ‘average’ reference district where no sustainable measures were undertaken.

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Preliminary conclusions from the sustainability assessment suggested that shrinking populations do not necessarily make districts more sustainable. Vacant green spaces are not necessarily a positive improvement. A positive outcome is the ability to demolish poor housing can physically improve the district. Creating a sustainable local environment in a shrinking area seems to be a more challenging and a different process than the same task in a growing area. Costs involved in the adopting various measures can also be a complication. References: (Dreijerink & Kortman, 2012)

3.3 Scotland – Northeast Scotland Motivator: Counter and accepting

Context: This is a peripheral area that was shrinking until the oil reserves were discovered in the North Sea. It has an industrial cluster that is centred on the oil industry but lacks in other agglomeration of industries that would support it long term if the oil industry suffered a setback. Due to the oil industry there has been strong international immigration. However, the region is aware that the population is ageing with future impacts on labour force. The region experienced a short period of population decline and this has been seen as a warning. Population policies are strongly focused on countering.

Issues:

• Decrease in school children • Services and facilities - ie

25% drop in number of shops (1981-2008) Increase in vacant buildings

• Ageing communities

Policy measures:

Education provision o Law changes on school closures – reforming school closure decision making to allow for

alternatives, effects on communities and transport. o The 3Rs project: Reorganize, Renovate and Rebuild – merging declining schools.

Mixed use of schools: school buildings can be used as a library, police station and for social work.

Welfare and care services o Older people’s Action Plan Aberdeen City: care services are customised to the needs of

older people o Flexible care facility and mobile health points – to enable older people to live in their

homes longer

Service provision

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o Fixed service model – services are provided from a central point o Mobile services o Internet based services o Telecare

Built environment o Law changes to Housing Act to enable the government to designate homes to be

demolished due to being unsafe.

Economic and business o Aberdeenshire Local Development Plan – economic stimulation in rural areas through

diversification

Promotion o Welcome here immigration policies

Outcomes:

Population trends in North East Scotland were reversed in the 1990s by a combination of the industrial cluster development and strong immigration policies. This reversal is unlikely to have occurred without the oil sector boost.

The education and older people strategies have had a positive effect on quality of life but the effect on population growth is unclear. In general the policies are aimed at quality rather than quantity.

Reference: (Galjaard, et al., 2012).

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Appendix 4 – Selected local level case studies

4.1. Bioenergy village Location: Germany – Lower Saxony - Juhnde

Strategy: Decentralization – technical infrastructure provision

Motivator: Accepting

Objective: To supply the village with electricity all year round.

Population (2000) 1072 Time frame 2004

Policy measures: The village of Juhnde built a biogas plant fuelled by corn, crop silage, sunflowers and manure from local farmers to produce heat and electricity. An additional woodchip heat plant was installed to guarantee supply over winter. Citizens of the village pay to be part of the project and 70% of the village (140 households) have joined. The residue is able to be used again as fertilizer. A cooperative was formed to run the plant and is funded by membership contributions and profit from selling the energy.

Funding sources: The project had strong support from outside of the village. Expertise came from the Interdisciplinary Centre for Sustainable Development (University of Gottingen) which initiated the project and was part of the process. Funding was sourced from the Agency of Renewable Resources which receives funds from the federal government, from the federal state Niedersachsen, the local government of Gottingen and from the EU LEADER+ rural development programme.

Actors: Community leaders, civic society, business community, national level input

Outcomes: Social benefits – building trust and partnerships among community leaders. This enables the community to act quickly if new opportunities arise. The full range of challenges are being met. References: Dremel 2013

4.2 Downtown revitalization Location: US – North Carolina - Ayden

Strategy: Downtown revitalization

Motivator: Countering

Objective: to create a welcoming place for businesses to prosper and for local residents to shop and spend time.

Context: Ayden’s downtown business community was adversely affected by a highway construction project that diverted traffic away from the Main Street. Several revitalization projects had previously failed.

Population (2000) 4,620

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Poverty rate (2000) 26% Minority population (2000) 52% Proximity to urban center 150km to Raleigh, N.C. Proximity to interstate highway 90km Time frame 2005-2007

Policy measures: Ayden applied to the North Carolina Main Street Program, an off shoot of the National Main Street Program which provides strategy and market analysis to enable rural communities to revitalize. Ayden was selected and received three years of technical assistance and guidance to develop a revitalisation programme, as well as small business assistance and leadership training.

Three groups were formed: design, economic restructuring and promotions, peopled by officials, residents and business owners.

Funding sources: “The National Main Street Program, developed by the National Main Street Center of the National Trust for Historic Preservation, includes a four-point approach to downtown revitalization based on a comprehensive strategy of work, tailored to meet local needs and opportunities. For more information, see www.mainstreet.org. The North Carolina Small Town Main Street Program (STMSP), an offshoot of the Main Street program, provides market analysis to rural communities and gives small businesses the resources to evaluate their market opportunities.

Grants were provided for updating facades. The planning department also offered free design consultations for façade improvements. There was strong uptake of this initiative.

Actors: Community leaders, civic society, business community, national level input

Outcomes: Downtown revitalization was achieved but only through tapping into higher level programmes for support. The success was not large scale but did enable the growth of existing small business and conditions for further growth. There were also social benefits, such as, building trust and partnerships among community leaders. This enables the community to act quickly if new opportunities arise. References: http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/pdf/ayden.pdf

4.3 Japan – Ryori Port Rehabilitation Project Location: Ryori, Sanriku region, Ofunato Prefecture

Motivator: Countering – speed

Policy sectors: Economic and business, social

Context: Ryori was a fishing community that was severely impacted by the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami of 2011. A cooperative oversees all fishing activities and a factory for processing fish products. Only 206 ships survived from a fishing fleet of 610.The tsunami severely damaged the fish processing factory meaning that even though fishing has restarted the product must be sent to other fishing cooperatives for processing thereby losing economic margin. Over half of the population is over the age of fifty. The cooperative has 453 members, with each member


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representing a family or group of fishermen. Only 300 are active fishing participants, the rest being widows or retirees. As these people receive financial assistance and profits from the cooperative, the cooperative is crucial for the economic and social welfare of older members.

Policy measures: Revitalizing the fishing industry, rebuilding the factory. Objectives: To quickly rebuild the fishing fleet and fish processing plant. Any delay is likely to worsen the age structure of the population as the younger residents leave for more economic opportunities.

Actors: Central Government, Kizuna Foundation - charitable funds through grants and donations, a non-profit organization that was created in response to the needs of survivors of the Japanese tsunami 2011.

Funding: Local and Central Government and the Kizuna Foundation. The government has subsidized the ships. Local and central government have provided a subsidy for equipment needs up to 90% of the cost. The Kizuna Foundation has received approval from the Japanese government for a subsidy of 90% to rebuild the factory and is also working on grants for the last 10%. Outcomes: The fishing fleet is now back to 500 ships. The rehabilitation of the fishing factory serves as a symbol of recovery for the region. References: http://kizunafoundation.org/current/

Ishinomaki, Miyagi Prefecture – what happens when intervention isn’t fast enough

Towns and cities in the prefectures of Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima lost more than 72,000 through death or abandonment of their homes. Around 65 per cent of the population that left the area was under the age of 30.

The tsunami destroyed much of Ishinomaki. The rebuild has not been completed fast enough to maintain the rest of the population. Over 10,000 people were either killed or left from the town of Ishinomaki. There is a mismatch of jobs to job seekers. There are currently 168 employment positions for every 100 people seeking word in the town.

A fish factory was rebuilt and opened in 2013. Demand for the Kinoya company’s product is high, however, there are significant challenges for operation of the factory. Kinoya is struggling to attract young workers. Even before the disaster young people didn’t want to work in the labour intensive industry. Most of the employees are in their 50s and 60s.

Reference: http://kizunafoundation.org/traumatized-port-struggles-to-stay-together-move-on/


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4.4 Canada – Immigration policies Location: Morden, Manitoba Province, Canada

Motivator: Countering

Policy sectors: Governance, Promotion, Economic and business

Context: Canada has a low fertility rate and is ageing. At the same time the economy is doing well and there is a shortage of skilled workers. The Canadian federal government now shares jurisdiction over the selected of immigrants with its 10 provinces and three territories. Most provinces run their own ‘Provincial Nominee Programmes.’ Different provinces have different workforce requirements which they are struggling to fill. People wanting to move to Canada must make an application through the Provincial Nominee Programme (PNP).

The province of Manitoba has its own Provincial Nominee Program (MPNP). The MPNP travels overseas to recruit possible candidates for the ‘invitation’ stream for their programme.

The small town of Morden is going one step further and runs a successful active recruitment campaign through their own community driven immigration initiative to fill gaps in their job market. Living costs in the town are among the lowest in Canada. Canadian cities are experiencing rising costs of living that is outstripping the rate of inflation leading to a potential shift away from immigrants seeking to live in the cities.

Morden Population 9,000 Nearest major city Winnipeg – 112km Unemployment rate 3.1%

Policy measures: The campaign taps into the Manitoba Provincial Nominee Programme, however Morden identifies potential residents before they make their PNP application. The community consults with local employers and then promotes candidates for immigration through the PNP. The community only accepts applications from candidates that fall into the target occupations and the candidate must make a visit to the area to have an interview, make local contracts and seek employment.

Actors: Collaboration between local residents, employers, local government, developers.

Funding sources: Manitoba Provincial Nominee Programme

Timeframe: Started in 2012

Outcomes: There has been a high retention rate for immigrants. The community is backing the programme - with employer support, developers considering building dwellings to house immigrants and locals welcoming newcomers. A recent survey found that 85% of Manitoba provincial nominees were working three months after arrival with many employed within one or two weeks. References: http://www.mordenimmigration.com/; http://www.cicnews.com/2014/09/immigration-morden-manitoba-093839.html;

http://www.mordenimmigration.com/

http://www.cicnews.com/2014/09/immigration-morden-manitoba-093839.html

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http://mordenmb.com/business/immigrate-to-morden/job-career-opportunities; http://www.cicnews.com/2014/09/immigration-morden-manitoba-093839.html; http://www.canadavisa.com/eligibility-requirements-manitoba-provincial-nominee-program.html

Appendix 5 - Definitions

Table 19: Definitions – welfare state

Welfare state typology Wage Earner Welfare State Low welfare state expenditure but strong labour movement197 Liberal Welfare State Means-tested assistance, modest universal transfers or modest

social-insurance plans predominate198 Christian Democratic Welfare State

States provide welfare services to their citizens, but at the same time uphold social status differences so that the resulting redistributive impact is minimal. The role of churches and families as providers of social services is emphasized in this type.199

Table 20: Definitions – varieties of capitalism

Varieties of capitalism typology Liberal market economy In LME countries firms prefer to coordinate their activities via

market competition200. Coordinated market economy

In CME countries firms prefer more non-market cooperative relationships to coordinate their activities, including with the state.

Table 21: Definitions – two types of human capital

Two types of human capital Humans capital as labour force (a production factor)

To utilize humans as labour force; related to economic added-value that is generated by the input of labour force as other production factors such as financial capital, land, machinery, and labour hours201.

Human capital as an accumulation of skills over a lifetime

OECD definition: the knowledge, skills, competencies and attributes embodied in individuals that facilitate the creation of personal, social and economic well-being (OECD, 2001).

http://mordenmb.com/business/immigrate-to-morden/job-career-opportunities

http://www.cicnews.com/2014/09/immigration-morden-manitoba-093839.html

http://www.canadavisa.com/eligibility-requirements-manitoba-provincial-nominee-program.html

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Endnotes 1 (Haartsen & Van Wissen, 2012) 2 The Waikato Plan: Project Brief December 2014: Local Authority Shared Services. 3 (Gordon & Glenn, n.d.) 4 (Alberani, et al., 1990) 5 The Waikato Plan: Project Brief December 2014: Local Authority Shared Services. 6 (Ferry & Vironen, 2011; UN, 2000) 7 (Hospers, 2014, p. 1512) 8 (Matanle, 2015) 9 (Matanle, 2011) 10 (Hospers, 2014; Matanle & Rausch, 2011) 11 (Matanle, 2011) 12 (Wiechmann & Pallagst, 2012) 13 (Matanle & Rausch, 2011) 14 (Frey, 2014; Mackenzie, 1994; Matanle & Rausch, 2011; Sedlacek, et al., 2009; Warkentin, 2012) 15 (Jackson, 2015 forthcoming) 16 (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 1998; Haartsen & Venhorst, 2009; Matanle & Rausch, 2011) 17 (Ferry & Vironen, 2011) 18 (Ferry & Vironen, 2011) 19 (Rzepka, 2011) 20 (Bhagwati, 2004, p. 3) 21 (Beetz, et al., 2008; Martinez-Fernandez, et al., 2012) 22 (Eaqub & Stephenson, 2014; Newell, 2006) 23 (Beetz, et al., 2008) 24 (Midmore, et al., 2010) 25 (Spiller, 2012) 26 (OECD, 2009, p. 17) 27 (Spiller, 2012) 28 (Ferry & Vironen, 2011, p. 25) 29 (Fox, 2015) 30 (OECD, 2006) 31 (OECD, 2007) 32 Total Fertility Rate: The average number of live births a woman would have by age 50 if she were subject,

throughout her life, to the age-specific fertility rates observed in a given year. Its calculation assumes that there is no mortality.

33 United Nations. Total fertility rate - http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/indicators/methodology_sheets/demographics/total_fertility_rate.pdf 34 (UN, 2000) 35 (UN, 2000) 36 United Nations. Dependency ratio -http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/indicators/methodology_sheets/demographics/dependency_ratio.pdf 37 (Luescher & Shetty, 2013) 38 (Chung & Muntaner, 2007) 39 (Hall & Soskice, 2001) 40 (Hospers & Reverda, 2015) 41 (Hospers & Reverda, 2015, p. 22) 42 (Martinez-Fernandez, et al., 2012, p. 11) 43 (Hospers, 2014) 44 (Beetz, et al., 2008) 45 (Bernt, et al., 2012) 46 (Beetz, et al., 2008) 47 (Bernt, et al., 2012) 48 (Beetz, et al., 2008)

http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/indicators/methodology_sheets/demographics/dependency_ratio.pdf

http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/indicators/methodology_sheets/demographics/dependency_ratio.pdf

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49 (Beetz, et al., 2008) 50 (Hospers, 2014) 51 (Bernt, et al., 2012) 52 (Matanle, 2015) 53 (Matanle & Rausch, 2011, p. 435) 54 (Rink, et al., 2012, p. 4) 55 (Galjaard, et al., 2012) 56 (Kwon, 2009) 57 (OECD, 2011) 58 (White, 2015, p. 6) 59 (White, 2015, p. 6) 60 (Singer, 2012, p. 1) 61 (Kwon, 2009) 62 (Adelaja, et al., 2009; Knight Foundation, 2010) 63 (Tennyson, 2015) 64 (Midtkandal & Sorvik, 2012) 65 (Kenyon, et al., 2001) 66 (The Government of the Netherlands, 2015) 67 (Hollander, 2011; Martinez-Fernandez, et al., 2012; Shrink Smart, 2014) 68 (Martinez-Fernandez, et al., 2012) 69 (Hospers & Reverda, 2015; Martinez-Fernandez, et al., 2012) 70 (Hospers & Reverda, 2015) 71 (Kukutai, et al., 2014) 72 (CBC News, 2014; Fitzpatrick, 2012; Kukutai, et al., 2014) 73 Top Gear episode – Burma Special: Supersize Burmese Drag Race - Top Gear - Series 21 - BBC https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8uwTnP8ioiU 74 (da Costa & Meyer, 2013) 75 (The Economist, 2013) 76 (Journeyman Pictures, 2013) 77 (Hospers & Reverda, 2015) 78 (Fol, 2012) 79 (Singer, 2012, p. 4) 80 (UN, 2000, p. 4) 81 (Singer, 2012, p. 4) 82 (Johnsen & Perjo, 2014; UN, 2000) 83 (UN Population Dvision, 2015) 84 (Martinez-Fernandez, 2010, p. 63) 85 (Kenyon, et al., 2001) 86 (Haartsen & Van Wissen, 2012) 87 (Barca, et al., 2012, p. 137) 88 (Barca, et al., 2012, p. 137) 89 (Barca, et al., 2012, p. 137) 90 (Mazurkewich, 2010) 91 (StatisticsNZ, 2007) 92 (Galjaard, et al., 2012, p. 293) 93 (Midmore, et al., 2010) 94 (Midmore, et al., 2010) 95 (Terluin, 2003) 96 (Chesire, 2006) 97 (Hollander, 2011) 98 (Bernt, et al., 2012; Rink, et al., 2012) 99 (Spiller, 2012, p. 11) 100 (Hollander, 2011) 101 (Bernt, et al., 2012; Rink, et al., 2012) 102 (Beckham, 2015) 103 (Johnsen & Perjo, 2014)

107

104 (Mazurkewich, 2010) 105 (Haartsen & Van Wissen, 2012) 106 (Matanle, 2011, p. 89) 107 (Stockdale, et al., 2000) 108 (Midmore, et al., 2010) 109 (Knight Foundation, 2010, p. 2) 110 (Knight Foundation, 2010, p. 4) 111 (Project for Public Spaces, n.d.) 112 (Hollander, 2011) 113 (Hollander, et al., 2009, p. 230) 114 (Besser, 2013) 115 (Kresl & Ietri, 2010, pp. 167-8) 116 (Kresl & Ietri, 2010) 117 (Kresl & Ietri, 2010, p. 165) 118 (Kresl & Ietri, 2010) 119 (Haase, et al. 2012) 120 (Scottish Executive, 2006) 121 (OECD, 2014) 122 (Joint Working Party, 2013; Palmer, et al., 2012) 123 (Beetz, et al., 2008, p. 304) 124 (Dremel, 2013) 125 (Williams, 2013) 126 (Brink, 2013; Healthcare IT news, 2013; Johnsen & Perjo, 2014) 127 (Hollander, et al., 2009) 128 (Hollander, et al., 2009) 129 (Rhodes & Russo, 2013) 130 (Hospers & Reverda, 2015) 131 (Hospers & Reverda, 2015, p. 25) 132 (Hospers & Reverda, 2015) 133 (Hospers & Reverda, 2015) 134 (Singer, 2012, p. 8) 135 (Singer, 2012, p. 1) 136 (Dreijerink & Kortman, 2012; Matanle, 2015) 137 (McArthur, et al., 2013) 138 (Kenyon, et al., 2001) 139 (Hospers, 2014, p. 1511) 140 (Dremel, 2013) 141 (Matanle & Rausch, 2011, p. 26) 142 (RT News, 2012) 143 (Bowden, 2008) 144 (Kenyon, et al., 2001) 145 (The Economist, 2013) 146 (The Economist, 2013) 147 (Forth, 2000) 148 (Boardman, 2008) 149 (Hospers & Reverda, 2015, p. 23) 150 (Beetz, et al., 2008, p. 296) 151 (Kenyon, et al., 2001) 152 (Beetz, et al., 2008) 153 (OECD, 2009, p. 28) 154 (Dremel, 2013) 155 (OECD, 2014, p. 4) 156 (Johnsen & Perjo, 2014) 157 (Galjaard, et al., 2012, p. 293) 158 (Beetz, et al., 2008, p. 307) 159 (Hall & Stern, 2009, p. 75)

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160 (Kenyon, et al., 2001, p. 26) 161 (OECD, 2014, p. 4) 162 (Kenyon, et al., 2001) 163 (Kenyon, et al., 2001, p. 16) 164 (Dremel, 2013, p. 39) 165 (Morrow, 2011) 166 (Kenyon, et al., 2001, p. 22) 167 (McKinsey & Company, 1994, p. 4) 168 (Kenyon, et al., 2001, p. 21) 169 (Kenyon, et al., 2001, p. 21) 170 (Dremel, 2013) 171 (Project for Public Spaces, n.d.) 172 (Adelaja, et al., 2009) 173 (Nana, 2014) 174 (Spiller, 2012, p. 4) 175 (Nana, 2014) 176 (MBIE, 2014a) 177 (MBIE, 2014a) 178 (Joyce, 2014) 179 (MBIE, 2014) 180 (MBIE, 2014) 181 (Chesire, 2006) 182 (Haartsen & Van Wissen, 2012) 183 (Matanle & Rausch, 2011) 184 (Stockdale, et al., 2000) 185 (Joyce, 2014) 186 (Spiller, 2012) 187 (Martinez-Fernandez, et al., 2012, p. 31) 188 (Chesire, 2006) 189 (Beetz, et al., 2008) 190 (Chesire, 2006) 191 (Matanle & Sato, 2010, p. 57) 192 (Collits, 2012) 193 (Weyman & Martinez-Fernandez, 2012) 194 (Chesire, 2006; Collits, 2002) 195 (Wiechmann & Volkmann, 2012) 196 (Ferry & Vironen, 2011) 197 (Castles & Mitchell, 1992) 198 (Esping-Andersen, 1990) 199 (Chung & Muntaner, 2007) 200 (Mikler & Harrison, 2011, p. 186) 201 (Kwon, 2009, p. 5)

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