submarine networks in asia, 2004-2013 …...carlsbad, ca | washington, dc | exeter, uk | singapore |...
TRANSCRIPT
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Submarine Networks in Asia, 2004-2013
Presentation at
February 2014
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Introductory Housekeeping • TeleGeography focuses on international
networks. • Internet refers to public IP traffic. • Bandwidth refers to the combination of Internet,
switched voice, and private network traffic. • Feel free to raise your hand if anything is unclear
as we go through the presentation. • Also feel free to ask at the end of the
presentation if you would like me to expand on anything.
• And I’m always available to answer any questions by email.
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Internet Bandwidth in Asia and Southeast Asia
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Global Internet Bandwidth
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• Growth is continuing to slow. • In 2013, worldwide growth was 33 percent,
the lowest in ten years. • Despite this, overall Internet capacity nearly
doubled from 55 Tbps in 2011 to 104 Tbps in 2013.
Global Internet Bandwidth
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Declining Peak Internet Traffic Growth
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Declining Peak Internet Traffic Growth
• 41 percent is a key number. • If peak traffic is 41 percent or higher, peak
traffic doubles every two years. • Only Africa and Latin America exceeded 41
percent in 2013.
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Concentration of Asian Internet Bandwidth, 2009-2013
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Concentration of Asian Internet Bandwidth, 2009-2013
• There are hundreds of carriers in Asia, but a small number of operators account for a large percentage of capacity.
• Asia is less concentrated than other regions. • Smaller carriers’ share has increased slightly,
but no major changes the last five years.
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Annual Internet Growth in Southeast Asia
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Annual Internet Growth in Southeast Asia
• Upgrades are inherently lumpy. • Vietnam with large growth in 2010. • Many of the faster growing countries tend to
be be small in terms of overall bandwidth. • Singapore is unique in being both large and
still growing rapidly.
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Internet Capacity, South Asia
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Internet Capacity, South Asia
• Singapore towers over other southeast Asian countries.
• Much of this is “hubbed” traffic that is passed on, while other countries’ traffic originates or terminates there.
• Vietnam is the fastest growing of the four with a 5 year CAGR of 56.5%
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Singapore Compared
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Singapore Compared • Comparing Asian hubs to New York and
London. • As a percentage, the three Asian hubs have
grown compared to New York and London. • Examining 5 year CAGRs, Tokyo, Singapore,
and Hong Kong have grown at 34%+ annually, while New York grew at 22% and London grew at 29%.
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Subsea Cable Developments
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Construction Cost of New Submarine Cables by Region, 2011-2014
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Construction Cost of New Submarine Cables by Region, 2011-2014
• With 40G and 100G technology, much of the recent surge in cable builds has been driven by factors unrelated to a shortage of capacity.
• Construction is still expensive – a small number of cables represent the bulk of the costs. – ASE: Est. 430M USD – SJC: Est. 400M USD – APG: Est. 500M USD
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Source of Lit Submarine Cable Supply by Route, 2008-2012
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Source of Lit Submarine Cable Supply by Route, 2008-2012
• As mentioned, upgrades have supplied the bulk of new capacity.
• Some routes like Trans-Atlantic have had no new cable builds the last five years.
• For Trans-Pac, Unity is the only new cable in this timeframe.
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Intra-Asia Bandwidth Supply and Demand, 2008-2012 (Tbps)
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Intra-Asia Bandwidth Supply and Demand, 2008-2012 (Tbps)
• When we talk about bandwidth it is helpful to make distinctions between what is used, what is available, and what is possible.
• Intra-Asia cables have over 14.4 Tbps of lit capacity. – 9.8 Tbps of this capacity is purchased. – 5.6 Tbps of this is used.
• But Intra-Asia cables have a current potential capacity of 113 Tbps. Only 13% of Intra-Asia’s potential capacity is currently lit.
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Intra-Asia Capacity by Cable
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Intra-Asia Capacity by Cable • Three cables make up a bulk of the capacity:
EAC-C2C, APCN-2, and FLAG/REACH NAL • These three cables account for almost 11 Tbps
of capacity. – But also, keep in mind that cables like SMW-3,
though smaller in capacity connect to unique points (Myanmar) and provide unique routes (west coast of Australia).
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2004
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2004
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• 313 Gbps of usage in 2004. • 2.3 Tbps of usage worldwide. • 23 cables connecting Asia.
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2006 Earthquake off of Taiwan
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2006 Earthquake off the coast of Taiwan
• Taiwan Strait is a chokepoint for cables. • December 26, 2006 – a 7.1 earthquake
occurs off of Taiwan’s southern coast. • Only EAC and Guam-Phillippines
unaffected. • Since them, TPE and AAG have been
built avoiding this zone.
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2008
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2008
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• 2.3 Tbps of usage in Asia • 18.8 Tbps total usage worldwide. • 38 cables connecting Asia.
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Today
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Today
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• 13.28 Tbps of usage in Asia • 93.9 Tbps of worldwide usage. • 46 cables connecting Asia.
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Pricing
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Median GigE IP, Q2 10-Q2 13
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Median GigE IP, Q2 10-Q2 13 • Prices in Asia have fallen dramatically the last
handful of years. • Most prices have halved in the last three
years. • Hong Kong and Singapore are now in the
single digits per Gig.
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Intra-Asian Median Monthly 10 Gbps Wavelength Prices, Q3 2010-Q3 2013
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Intra-Asian Median Monthly 10 Gbps Wavelength Prices, Q3 2010-Q3 2013 • Intra-Asia transport prices have also fallen
dramatically. • Price wars have led to routes like Singapore-
Tokyo ending at 1/4th of what they were in 2010.
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Median 10 GigE IP Transit Prices in Major Global Cities, Q3 2010-Q3 2013
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Median 10 GigE IP Transit Prices in Major Global Cities, Q3 2010-Q3
2013 • But comparing Asia to other regions, prices
are “high.” • Other factors here – such as many assets
being bought out of bankruptcy in the Trans-Atlantic.
• NY and London are also much larger markets. – NY has 3x the IP bandwidth as Tokyo – London has almost 7x the IP bandwidth as Tokyo
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Cody Williams (Washington D.C. Office) 202-741-0070