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Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers”

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Page 1: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016

Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015

“Creating value for our customers”

Page 2: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

2 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Suncorp Debt Investor Update

2 Suncorp Group

6 Group Financial Results & Capital

16 Suncorp Bank

26 Funding & Liquidity

30 Appendix - Capital

Agenda

33 Appendix – Economy

40 Appendix – General Insurance

Page 3: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

3 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Leading financial services brands in Australia and New Zealand

Suncorp Group

Top 20 ASX listed company

$14 billion market capitalisation at 11 February 2016

$94 billion in group assets

13,400 employees in Australia and New Zealand

9 million customers

End to end ownership of brands

Page 4: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

4 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Group Capital Structure

Ordinary dividend – 60-80% of cash earnings

100% of distributable earnings

Maintain capital targets Surplus assets

Suncorp Group

GI Life Bank

General

Insurance Bank

(Suncorp Metway Ltd) Life

Shareholders Surplus returned

to shareholders

• Suncorp Metway Ltd is the entity that issues senior debt instruments on behalf of the Bank

• AAI Limited and SIF Limited are the entities that typically issue sub-debt instruments on behalf of General Insurance

• Suncorp Group Limited is typically the entity that issues Basel III compliant CPS and T2 sub-debt

Page 5: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

Priorities

11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

1. Maintain stability

and momentum

2. Elevate the customer

3. Recalibrate costs

Key Targets

• Broadening of customer relationships

• Improving underlying NPAT

• Sustainable ROE of at least 10%, which implies an underlying ITR of at least 12%

• Maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 60% to 80% of cash earnings

• Returning excess capital

5

Strategic refinements

Page 6: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

Group Financial Results and Capital

“Creating value for our customers”

Page 7: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

7 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Natural hazards and investment income impact on the GI NPAT

HY16 results overview ($m)

HY16 HY15 % change

General Insurance 297 419 (29)

Bank 194 176 10

Suncorp Life 53 86 (39)

Business lines NPAT 544 681 (20)

Other 12 (21) -

Cash earnings 556 660 (16)

Acquisition amortisation (26) (29) -

Reported NPAT 530 631 (16)

External impacts: Pre-tax Post-tax Pre-tax Post-tax

Investment returns 133 93 348 244

Natural hazards (362) (253) (470) (329)

Reserve releases 137 96 214 150

Suncorp Life market adjustments - (5) - 34

Page 8: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

8 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Diversification of earnings

Suncorp Group business line NPAT ($m)

64 -10

-19

34

-5

162 564 470 419

297

156 144

105 176 194

69 61

41 52 58

-54 -140

1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 1H16

■ Life underlying NPAT ■ Life market adjustments ■ General Insurance

■ Bank ■ Non-core Bank

397

597 681 544

619

Page 9: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

9 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Stable over time

Cost - operating expenses ($m)

899 877 902 881 892

305 319 322 324 326

150 153 142 139 142

1,354 1,349 1,366 1,344 1,360

1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16

General Insurance Bank Life

Page 10: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

HY16 HY15 %change

GWP 4,417 4,357 1.4

Net earned premium 3,992 3,947 1.1

Net incurred claims (2,822) (2,805) 0.6

Operating expenses (892) (902) (1.1)

Underwriting result 278 240 15.8

Investment income – insurance funds 99 266 (62.8)

Insurance trading result 377 506 (25.5)

Investment income –shareholder funds 34 82 (58.5)

Managed schemes, JVs and funding costs 1 6 (83.3)

Income tax (115) (175) (34.3)

NPAT 297 419 (29.1)

10 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Claims inflation and lower investment returns reducing profitability

General Insurance

Key highlights

• GWP up 1.4%

• Return to top-line growth across all portfolios

• Claims inflation challenges reducing underlying margin

• Underlying ITR 10.1%

• Lower investment returns and MTM adjustments

• Reserve releases of $137 million or 3.4% of NEP

Page 11: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

11 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Improving credit quality driving improved profit

Suncorp Bank

HY16 HY15 %change

Net interest income 566 553 2.4

Net non-interest income 49 64 (23.4)

Total income 615 617 (0.3)

Total operating expenses (326) (322) 1.2

Profit before impairment losses 289 295 (2.0)

Impairment losses on loans and

advances (11) (43) (74.4)

Bank profit before tax 278 252 10.3

Income tax (84) (76) 10.5

Suncorp Bank NPAT 194 176 10.2

Key highlights

• 5.1% lending growth

• Ongoing improvement in credit quality with non-performing loans down 15.1%

• NIM of 1.85% at the top end of the target range

• Cost to income reducing to 53%

• Good progress with key projects, Ignite and Advanced accreditation

Page 12: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

12 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Underlying profit increase of 11.5%

Suncorp Life Insurance

HY16 HY15 %change

Planned profit margin release 22 17 29.4

Claims experience 3 6 (50.0)

Lapse experience 5 1 400.0

Other experience (6) (5) 20.0

Underlying investment income 16 15 6.7

Superannuation 18 18 -

Suncorp Life underlying profit after tax 58 52 11.5

Market adjustments (5) 34 n/a

Suncorp Life NPAT 53 86 (38.4)

Key highlights

• In-force premium growth of 5.2%

• Direct growth via GI brands up 20%

• Embedded Value of $1,936 million up 4.9%

• Value of One Year Sales up 28% to $23 million

• Third successive half of positive claims and lapse experience

Page 13: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

1.25x 1.14x 1.25x

1.73x 1.70x 1.67x

SUN Peer 1 Peer 2

CET1 AT1 Tier 2

* Ratios listed relate to Prescribed Capital Amount (PCA). Source: Latest published company reports.

General Insurance capital ratios* Bank capital ratios*

13 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Strong General Insurance and Bank capital ratios against peers

Suncorp Capital Ratios

Additional $243 million capital held at Suncorp Group level

Advanced basis Standardised

9.45% 8.91% 8.17% 10.24% 10.24% 9.59% 9.50%

13.97% 12.72% 12.57%

14.15% 14.08% 13.29% 13.26%

SUN Regional 1 Regional 2 Major 1 Major 2 Major 3 Major 4

CET1 AT1 Tier 2

* Peer bank ratios exclude impacts of post balance date capital raisings and transactions. Source: Latest published company reports.

Page 14: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

14 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Impacted by lower GI margins

CET1 Capital Base – HY16 movements ($m)

570 506

530

47 22

153

53 71 386

Excess CET1 FY15

HY16 NPAT GI excess technical provisions

Bank Project Ignite

Bank ERCL release

Life impact from lower yields

Growth and other

movements

Dividend Excess CET1 HY16

Page 15: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

15 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Outstanding at 31 December 2015

Capital instruments

* Additional information is available in appendix 3 of the Analyst Pack

Semi-annual coupon rate /

margin above 90 day BBSW

Optional Call /

Exchange Date Issue Date

31 DECEMBER 2015 Total

Balance

Regulatory

Capital GI Bank Life SGL

$M $M $M $M $M $M

AAIL Subordinated Debt 330 bps Nov 2020 Nov 2015 225 - - - 225 225

AAIL Subordinated Debt 6.75% Oct 2016 Oct 2006 101 - - - 101 108

AAIL Subordinated Debt - June 2017 Oct 2007 265 - - - 265 220

SGL Subordinated Debt 285 bps Nov 2018 May 2013 - 670 100 - 770 770

SML FRCN 75 bps Perpetual Dec 1998 - 72 - - 72 72

Total subordinated debt 591 742 100 - 1,433 1,395

SGL CPS2 465 bps Dec 2017 Nov 2012 110 450 - - 560 560

SGL CPS3 340 bps June 2020 May 2014 400 - - - 400 400

Total Additional Tier 1

Capital 510 450 - - 960 960

Total 1,101 1,192 100 - 2,393 2,355

Page 16: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

Suncorp Bank

“Creating value for our customers”

Page 17: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

17 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Key ratios

Suncorp Bank

4.06% 3.17%

1.37%

6.49%

3.58%

1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16

Lending growth (annualised)

1.66%

1.78%

1.86% 1.83% 1.85%

1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16

Net interest margin (interest-earning assets)

59.57%

55.48%

52.19%

54.64% 53.01%

1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16

Cost to income ratio

0.18%

0.32%

0.17%

0.06% 0.04%

1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16

Impairment losses to gross loans and advances

(annualised)

7.59% 8.78%

12.13% 12.21% 13.11%

1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16

Return on Common Equity Tier 1

65.70% 65.80%

66.10%

65.30%

65.60%

1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16

Deposit to loan ratio

Page 18: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

0.3%

18 11 February 2016 Suncorp Group Limited

Total lending assets $52.9 billion Retail banking market share

Suncorp Bank

10.0%

0.8%

0.8%

1.8%

0.3%

Source: Roy Morgan

11

1

151

ATM

Branch

Business centre

19 122

9

524

40

3

414 9

1

545

1

1

245

1

48

0.5%

81%

10%

8%

1% Portfolio

54% 25%

10%

7%

4%

Geography

■ Commercial (SME) ■ Housing ■ Agribusiness ■ Consumer

■ NSW ■ QLD ■ VIC ■ SA & Other ■ WA

Page 19: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

19 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Home lending assets $43 billion

Suncorp Bank

■ New South Wales and ACT

■ Queensland

■ Victoria, South Australia and Other

■ Western Australia

■ Investor ■ Owner occupied

■ Intermediary ■ Direct

51%

28%

13%

8%

Geography

70%

30%

Borrower type

37%

63%

Channel

Page 20: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

20 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Commercial (SME) assets $5.2 billion

Suncorp Bank

■ New South Wales ■ Queensland ■ Other

54%

14%

20%

10%

2% Exposure size

■ Hospitality and accommodation

■ Property investment

■ Construction and development

■ Retail ■ Services ■ Manufacturing and

mining ■ Other

■ < $5 million ■ $5-$10 million ■ $10-$25 million ■ $25-$50 million ■ $50-$100 million

35%

16% 8%

17%

8%

5%

11%

Industry

74%

13%

13%

Geography

Page 21: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

21 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Agri assets $4.3 billion

Suncorp Bank

■ Beef ■ Grain and mixed

farming ■ Sheep and mixed

livestock

■ Sugar ■ Cotton ■ Fruit ■ Other

49%

21%

24%

6%

Exposure size

■ < $5 million ■ $5-$10 million

■ $10-$25 million ■ $25-$50 million

■ Queensland ■ New South Wales ■ Other

30%

30%

10%

8%

3% 3%

16%

Industry

62%

29%

9%

Geography

Page 22: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

22 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Credit quality – gross impaired and past due loans

Suncorp Bank

Gross impaired loans by segment ($m)

34 28 26 33 31 25

139 182

208 162

125 109

51

206

99

67

62

42

2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16

Commercial/SME lending Agribusiness lending Retail lending

Past due home loans (% gross home loans)

0.79%

0.98% 0.93%

0.74% 0.78%

0.69%

0.05%

-0.01%

2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16

Total home lending Home lending impaired HL Loss Rate

Page 23: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

23 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Credit quality - impairments

Suncorp Bank

Impairment losses to gross loans Net impaired loans to gross loans

Source: Latest peer financial reports

0.22%

0.27%

0.38%

0.28%

0.16%

0.24%

0.29%

SUN Regional 1

Regional 2

Major 1 Major 2 Major 3 Major 4

0.04%

0.18%

0.14%

0.17%

0.13% 0.13%

0.24%

SUN Regional 1

Regional 2

Major 1 Major 2 Major 3 Major 4

Page 24: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

24 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Asset growth and credit quality ($m)

Suncorp Bank

Commercial (SME) portfolio Agribusiness portfolio

4,039

4,311

4,484 4,624

4,534 4,400

4,258

2.4

6%

3.2

2%

4.0

6%

4.5

0%

3.5

8%

2.8

3%

2.5

6%

1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16

Agribusiness portfolio ($m) Gross impaired assets/Total portfolio (%)

5,297

5,531 5,666

5,772 5,593

5,353 5,203

1.5

6%

0.8

8%

1.0

0%

0.8

8%

1.2

0%

1.1

6%

0.8

1%

1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15* 2H15* 1H16*

Commercial portfolio ($m) Impaired assets/Total portfolio (%)

Page 25: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

61% 62% 64% 66% 69%

22% 23% 24% 23% 22%

17% 15% 12% 12% 9%

1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16

Home Lending Assets by LVR

25 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Home lending assets $43 billion

Suncorp Bank

■ 0 - 80% ■ 80.01 % - 90% ■ 90.01% +

66% 71%

84% 87% 88%

8% 13%

12% 9% 9% 26%

17% 5%

3% 2%

1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16

Home Lending New Business by LVR

Page 26: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

Funding & Liquidity

“Creating value for our customers”

Page 27: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

27 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Liquidity

Suncorp Bank

LT funding profile ($m)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Mar 15 Apr 16 May 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Apr 19 Aug 19 Nov 19 Apr 20 Oct 20

Covered Senior Unsecured (Domestic) Senior Unsecured (Offshore)

Page 28: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

28 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Liquid Assets

Components of Liquid Assets ($bn)

1.2 1.6 1.9 3.6

2.8 3.5

9.7 7.7

6.2

5.3

5.0 3.3

4.2

4.2

4.2 4.0

4.3

4.4

1 2 3 4 5 6

Cash, Govt, Semi-govt

Bank, NCD, Bills, RMBS, Supra, Covered Bonds

Internal RMBS

Dec 15

15.1

13.5 12.3

12.9 12.1

11.2

Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15

Components of LCR ($bn)

LCR defined as Liquidity Coverage Ratio CLF defined as Committed Liquidity Facility HQLA defined as High Quality Liquid Assets

30 Jun 15 31 Dec 15

100% LCR 100% LCR

118% LCR 139% LCR

2.8

6.3

3.5

5.9

4.8

1.3

4.8

2.3

1 2 3 4 5

HQLA assets

CLF

3.6

7.1

2.8

6.3

4.8

1.3

4.8

1.3

1 2 3 4 5

Required LCR qualifying liquid assets

Buffer

Page 29: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

29 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Investor Reporting

For further information on Treasury Funding please go to http://www.suncorpbank.com.au/financial-services/treasury/wholesale-funding

Contacts

Scot McMullen

Simon Lewis

Adam Parry

Katie Taylor-Groth

Joanne Rains

Treasurer

Head of Funding

Institutional Relationship Manager

Institutional Relationship Manager

Corporate Relationship Manager

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

07 3362 4042

07 3362 4037

07 3362 4031

07 3362 4049

07 3362 4053

Page 30: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

APPENDIX Capital

30

Page 31: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

31 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Increased sophistication due to Risk Based Capital modelling

Capital

• Simplification and de-risking have supported capital returns

• Balance sheet strong

• Risk Based Capital embedded

• Enhancing decision making

*Chart not to scale

Group

Total

Group

Total

GI

Bank

Life

Diversification

Potential*

NOHC

Group Surplus

Regulatory minimum Operating target Surplus to operating target

Page 32: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

32 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Capital volatility by key risk type

Group Risk Based Capital

Market risk

Counterparty credit risk

Insurance risk

Operational risk

Suncorp Group GI Bank

Life Corporate

73% 3%

21%

3%

65%

27%

8%

36%

57%

7%

14%

86%

62% 11%

24%

3%

Page 33: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

APPENDIX Economy

33

Page 34: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

Favourable economic fundamentals

34 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

• Australia continues to see moderate economic

growth despite the impact from the resources sector.

• Consensus forecasts expect growth to continue

through 2016 and 2017.

• Fundamentals remain positive for both Australia and

Queensland.

• Australia has also retained its AAA credit rating.

• Population growth continues to support economic

activity while unemployment has declined.

Australia Queensland Data as at:

Population Growth (pa) 1.4% 1.2% Jun-15

Unemployment Rate 5.8% 5.8% Dec-15

Inflation 1.7% 1.7% Dec-15

Budget Position $33bn deficit

(2.0% of GDP)

$1bn deficit

(0.4% of GSP) 2015/16 forecast

Credit Rating

(S&P/Moody’s) AAA / Aaa AA+ / Aa1 Feb-16

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2011a 2012a 2013a 2014a 2015e 2016f 2017f

Source: Consensus Economics Annual %

Change

Australian economic growth Other key metrics supportive

Page 35: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

Monetary policy is supporting activity

35 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

• The RBA’s most recent reduction in the cash rate

was in May 2015. No further changes are

anticipated in the near term with recent RBA

commentary noting the strength of the Australian

economy.

• Credit growth remains stable. The increase in

business loans has been offset with slower growth in

residential investor lending following the

macro-prudential measures taken by APRA in 2015.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

Std Var Mortgage Rate RBA Cash Rate Headline Inflation Rate

Source: ABS, RBA, Bloomberg %

Inflation Target Range

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15

Total Credit Business Total Housing Investor Housing

Source: RBA Annual % Change

Inflation & interest rates Lending growth

Page 36: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

Favourable trends in building and labour

36 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

• Dwelling approvals are at long term highs. However

adjusting for population growth, high levels of

residential building activity is likely to continue.

• The non-residential building market continues to

harden albeit gradually.

• Labour market conditions continue to improve, with

employment growth at the strongest levels since 2006.

• The unemployment rate has decreased to 5.8% from

6.0%.

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

Dec-85 Dec-90 Dec-95 Dec-00 Dec-05 Dec-10 Dec-15

Annual approvals per '000

of population (RHS)

Source: ABS, Bloomberg, Suncorp

Annual

approvals (LHS)

Average

Building approvals Labour market

4.9

5.2

5.5

5.8

6.1

6.4

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15

Employment Unemployment Rate (%)

Change Per Month ('000) Source: Bloomberg

Page 37: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

Other indicators are mixed

37 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

• Business and consumer confidence indicators

improved through 2015 and remain above average

despite continued been volatility.

• Australia’s exports continue to rebalance due to a

more competitive AUD.

• Service exports such as tourism and education

performed well in 2015.

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15

Sources: NAB, Bloomberg Index

Business Conditions

Business Confidence

Confidence indicators Shifting export trends

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15

Service

Exports (RHS)

Mining Exports (LHS)

$m $m

Source: ABS

Page 38: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

Household financial conditions

38 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

• Notwithstanding the lift in household borrowing,

interest payments have fallen, savings have been

maintained and unemployment has fallen.

• Meanwhile, the RBA notes that “indicators suggest that

household financial stress remains fairly benign” (Financial Stability Review October 2015).

• Increases in house prices have boosted household

wealth.

• House prices in Brisbane are now showing a clear

affordability advantage.

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Sep-00 Sep-05 Sep-10 Sep-15

Source: RBA

%

Debt to disposable

income (LHS)

Interest payments

to disposable

income (RHS)

%

Household savings

rate (RHS)

Debt and debt servicing House prices

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15

Sydney Melbourne Brisbane

Source: Bloomberg, ABS Median House Price ($ '000)

Page 39: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

Queensland prospects

39 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

• Queensland is forecast to lead state growth in 2016,

assisted by a diversified economic base.

• The pullback in resources has however had an

impact on measures of real economic growth.

• Queensland saw a buoyant residential building

market over 2015.

• However, population growth of >2% per annum

over the past decade means that building levels

adjusted for population are only back at average

levels.

3.0%

3.0%

0.1%

2.5%

3.7%

1.4%

State economic growth QLD building approvals

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

Dec-85 Dec-00 Dec-15

Annual approvals per '000

of population (RHS)

Source: ABS, Bloomberg, Suncorp

Annual

approvals (LHS)

Average

Gross State Product 2016 forecast

Source: Deloitte Access Economics, Sep-15

Page 40: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

APPENDIX General Insurance

40

Page 41: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

41 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Top-line positive in a very competitive market

Gross Written Premium

Product HY16 ($m) %change Factors

Motor 1,413 1.7 Increase in average written premium rates partly offset

by a small loss of units

Home 1,287 1.3 Increase in average written premium rates partly offset

by a small loss of units

Commercial 1,115 (1.3) Growth in most commercial lines offset by a 33%

reduction in the Workers Compensation segment

CTP 567 6.8 Growth across NSW, Qld and ACT portfolios

Other 35 (5.4)

Total 4,417 1.4

Australia 3,796 1.2

New Zealand 621 2.6 2.7% in NZ$ terms

Page 42: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

42 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Key ratios

General Insurance

9.8% 8.7% 8.6% 8.1% 8.0%

1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16

Other underwriting expenses ratio

13.5% 14.0% 14.3% 14.4% 14.4%

1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16

Acquisition expenses ratio

67.5% 68.2%

71.1% 71.0% 70.7%

1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16

Loss ratio

23.3%

22.7% 22.9%

22.5% 22.4%

1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16

Total operating expense ratio

Page 43: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

43 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

By product

Gross Written Premium

■ Home ■ Motor ■ Commercial

■ Other ■ CTP

23%

30%

43%

4%

New Zealand $1.2b

34%

29%

22%

15%

<1%

Australia $7.6b $8.8b

32%

28%

27%

12%

1%

Total

Page 44: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

44 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Total GWP of $8.8 billion

Gross Written Premium

■ New South Wales ■ Queensland ■ Victoria ■ South Australia

■ Western Australia ■ Tasmania ■ New Zealand ■ Other

■ Home ■ Motor ■ Commercial ■ CTP ■ Other

25%

28%

19%

6% 3%

2%

14%

3%

Geography

34%

29%

22%

15%

<1%

Product

Page 45: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

45 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Impacted by claims inflation and lower investment yields

Underlying and Reported ITR

8.0%

10.0%

10.5%

11.2% 11.1%

13.1% 13.4% 13.6% 14.0%

14.7%

14.8% 14.6%

10.1% 12.8%

6.4%

10.9%

1.9%

3.8%

11.1%

18.6%

7.8%

13.9%

17.0%

12.8%

9.9% 9.4%

1H10 2H10 1H11 2H11 1H12 2H12 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16

12% 12%

Underlying ITR

Reported ITR

Page 46: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

46 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Conservative assumptions and world leading long-tail claims management

Reserve releases

1.1%

1.7% 1.4% 1.4%

5.4% 5.4%

3.4%

1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16

1.5%

Page 47: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

47 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Six months to 31 December 2015

General Insurance – Natural hazards

Date Event Net costs ($m)

Aug 2015 South Coast NSW and Sydney Storms 29

Sep 2015 NSW Central Coast Hail 21

Oct 2015 Fernvale Chinchilla Hail 44

Nov 2015 Sunnybank Hail 16

Nov 2015 Pinery Bushfire 15

Nov 2015 Darling Downs Storms 25

Dec 2015 Kurnell Tornado 63

Dec 2015 Great Ocean Road Bushfire 31

Other natural hazards attritional claims (Australia) 114

Other natural hazards attritional claims (New Zealand) 4

Total 362

Less: allowance for natural hazards (334)

Natural hazards costs above allowance 28

Page 48: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

NZ AUS Long run average

48 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

45 years of natural hazards*

General Insurance – Natural hazards

Retention

Christchurch earthquakes, Brisbane floods, Cyclone

Yasi, Melbourne Hailstorm

Newcastle earthquake

Melbourne & Perth Hailstorms,

Christchurch earthquakes Sydney

Hailstorm

Hunter Valley storm

Cyclone Marcia and NSW Low

Storms

Brisbane Hailstorm

* Adjusted for inflation, population growth and market share

Brisbane Hailstorm

Brisbane flood, Cyclone Tracy

Page 49: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

49 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Conservative balance sheet protection against catastrophes

General Insurance – FY16 reinsurance program

6.9b

6.1b

2.5b

500m

Original cover Reinstatement Reinstatement Reinstatement

250m

200m Dropdown aggregate

Dropdown aggregate

50m

Retention

Page 50: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

50 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

Drop-down aggregate program fully placed

General Insurance – FY16 reinsurance program

250m 50m xs

200m xs 50m 100m xs

150m xs 200m

100m xs

150m xs 300m

200m

150m

100m xs

50m xs 200m

100m xs

50m xs 300m

50m Retention

Page 51: Suncorp Group Ltd...Suncorp Group Limited Release date: 11 February 2016 Financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2015 “Creating value for our customers” 11 February

Important disclaimer

51 11 February 2016

Suncorp Group Limited

This report contains general information which is current as at 11 February 2016. It is information given in summary form and does not purport to be complete.

It is not a recommendation or advice in relation to the Group or any product or service offered by Suncorp or any of its subsidiaries. It is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors, and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. These should be considered, with or without professional advice, when deciding if an investment is appropriate.

This report should be read in conjunction with all other information concerning Suncorp filed with the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX).

The information in this report is for general information only. To the extent that the information may constitute forward-looking statements, the information reflects Suncorp’s intent, belief or current expectations with respect to our business and operations, market conditions, results of operations and financial condition, capital adequacy, specific provisions and risk management practices at the date of this report. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Suncorp’s control, which may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied.

Suncorp undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this report (subject to ASX disclosure requirements)