HOW DO WE “WALKHOW DO WE WALK THE WALK:” MAKING THE GBI VISION A REALITYREALITY

Dena BelzerMarch 5, 2012

What We’ll Talk AboutWhat We ll Talk About1 Implications of the GBI Vision for the1. Implications of the GBI Vision for the

Communities

2. Game Changers

3. How Do We Implement the GBI Vision?

Implications of the GBI for the Communities

Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative

Grand Boulevard InitiativeGrand Boulevard Initiative 43-mile State Road 82 Daly City to San Jose Parallel transit linesParallel transit lines “Coalition of the willing” 19 cities in 2 counties19 cities in 2 counties Federal, state and local

governments Transportation agencies Business and

development communitydevelopment community Environmental and

housing advocates

Summary of Growth Scenarios: Projected New Households and Jobs in 2035New Households and Jobs in 2035

300,000 

240,264 

190,395 

246,231 

200 000

250,000 

107 135

138,543 150,000 

200,000 

98,849 

45,071  39,147 57,355 

89,270 107,135 

50,000 

100,000 

‐

Greenbelt Alliance FOCUS PDAs GBI Baseline GBI Moderate GBI Enhanced

Households Jobs

These projections are pegged to outdated regional growth forecasts

All Five Scenarios Can Be Accommodated Within the Existing Character of El CaminoWithin the Existing Character of El Camino

Land capacity > amount of land required for infillLand capacity amount of land required for infill Can be achieved with financially feasible

products at a range of densitiesp g

25-35 DU/AC – 3-4 stories, stacked attached

70-85 DU/AC – 6-8 stories, flats over structured

20-25 DU/AC – 2+ stories, attached townhomes,

townhomes, tuck-under parking

parking/ground floor retailunderground parking

Fiscal Benefits of Infill Development ~ $330 million to $752 million in local tax revenuesmillion to $752 million in local tax revenues

$800

ons

$600

$700Mill

io

$400

$500

$200

$300

$0

$100

Greenbelt Alliance FOCUS PDAs GBI Baseline GBI Moderate GBI Enhanced

Property Tax - Housing Property Tax - Commercial Sales Tax from New Household Spending

Conversion of Low-Performing Retail Sites to Higher Intensity Uses Can Provide Increased Revenues

Sunnyvale ExampleSIMILAR EL CAMINO REAL CONTEXT

Sunnyvale ExamplePhoto Credit: Google

Game Changers

Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative

Game Changer #1: Vastly Improved Transit on El CaminoImproved Transit on El Camino

Rapid Bus has Been Transformational in Other Bay Area Corridors San Pablo AveOther Bay Area Corridors – San Pablo Ave.

Game Changer # 2: Bay Area Employment Growth Trends Support Transit Oriented LocationsGrowth Trends Support Transit Oriented Locations

Source: Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy

National Profile of Employment Near TransitNear Transit

Transit Zone Capture Rate by Sector Group, 2008

30%

35%

40%

45%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0%

5%

10%

Source: LEHD 2008, Center for Transit Oriented Development 2010, p

From 2002-2008 Employment Near Transit Increased Slightly in Absolute NumbersIncreased Slightly in Absolute Numbers

Change in Total Transit Zone Employment by Sector Group, 2002-2008

10%

15%

0%

5%

‐5%

Source: LEHD 2008 Center for Transit Oriented Development 2010

‐15%

‐10%

Source: LEHD 2008, Center for Transit Oriented Development 2010

Game Changer # 3: Changing Demographics Will Provide Greater Demand For Transit Oriented LocationsLocations

Source: Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy

Millenials Are Just Not Driving As MuchAs Much

Boomers Are Starting to Drive Less TooLess Too

Everybody’s driving less, but Teens are no longer leading the way on driving

Source: Transportation Research Board

Game Changer #4: Increasing Gas PricesGas Prices

Increasing Gas Prices Directly Correlate to Transit RidershipCorrelate to Transit Ridership

The bigger the “Dot” the greater the increase in rail ridership correlated to increased gas pricesridership correlated to increased gas prices

http://www.theatlanticcities.com/commute/2011/12/how-americans-really-react-to-high-gas-prices/616/

How Do We Implement the GBIHow Do We Implement the GBI Vision?

Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative

Many Challenges to Implementing the GBI VisionImplementing the GBI Vision

Ph i l M k tPhysical challenges

Market challenges Regulatory

• Small sites• Fragmented

opportunities• Visually

• Higher cost of infill • Big box often

highest and best use”

• Height/density limits

• Slow, complicated approvals process• Visually

unappealing environment

use• Weak short-term

demand• Tight credit

approvals process• High fees• Ground floor retail/

mixed use i trequirements

• Suburban parking standards

Every Community Will Create it’s Own ApproachOwn Approach

There is no “one-size-fits-all solution ”There is no one size fits all solution. Think strategically about prioritizing public

investments and public fundsinvestments and public funds. Look for: Multiple funding sourcesMultiple funding sources. A broad funding base. Synergies among projectsSynergies among projects. New partnerships to fill the gap.

Every Local Plan Will Require Different Combinations of Funding and FinancingCombinations of Funding and Financing

Assessment Tax BondDeveloper

Fees/ JointProject Grants

AssessmentDistricts

Tax Increment

Bond Financing

Fees/ Exactions

Joint Development User Fees

Transit Stations and Station Area Improvements

West Dublin BART (Dublin CA) X X X X(Dublin, CA)

New York Ave Station (Washington D.C.) X X

Transit Lines and Corridor InfrastructureTransit Lines and Corridor InfrastructureAtlanta Beltline(Atlanta, GA) X X X

DART Corridor(Dallas TX) X(Dallas, TX) X

District/Downtown Infrastructure and ImprovementsWhite Flint (Montgomery County, X X XMD)

Downtown Stamford (Stamford, CT) X X

What’s on the Cutting Edge of TOD Infrastructure Financing?Infrastructure Financing?

Aurora COAurora CO Cleveland OH West Union IA West Union IA

If these places can be “cutting edge” so can you!

Aurora CO - “Strategic Parking Planand Program Study”and Program Study

Projects – Four structured parking j p ggarages at strategic locations

Tools - Potential funding sources:

general fund revenues, user fees, parking in-lieu fee, commercial parking stall fee

Aurora

commercial parking stall fee, transportation impact fee

Bond financing

Lessons Learned - Think strategically about

prioritizing public investmentsprioritizing public investments Look for multiple funding

sources and a broad baseSource: Denver RTD FasTracks

Cleveland, OH - Greater University Circle InitiativeCircle Initiative Projects - Reconfiguration of a traffic circle and j g

relocation/renovation of two rail stations to support development

Tools - Anchor institutions provided: Convening and visioning $1 million for upfront $ p

planning and design Support for federal grants

L L d Lessons Learned: Look for partnerships to

fill gaps left by traditional

Source : New York Times

funding sources

West Union IA – District Energy SystemSystem Project – District energy in an historic downtownj gy

Tools – Funding: Grants from theFunding: Grants from the

U.S. Dept of Energy, the EPA, & the Iowa Department of Economic pDevelopment

Financing: Municipal bonds

L L d Lessons Learned – Look for synergies

among infrastructure projects

Layer funding sources

Wrapping UP

Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative

Converging Factors Will All Support GBISupport GBI1 Changing community attitudes1. Changing community attitudes2. Incremental physical change3 Better fiscal health3. Better fiscal health4. Strategic public investments5 F t l ti d l t th5. Future population and employment growth

trends6 Gl b l t d6. Global trends7. Innovative community and regional thinking

b t i l t ti !about implementation!

For Further Information Contact:Contact:

dbelzer@strategiceconomics comdbelzer@strategiceconomics.com

t t i iwww.strategiceconomics.com