tel-aviv university renewable energy conference may 21 st 2008 climate change and middle east...
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Tel-Aviv University
Renewable Energy ConferenceMay 21st 2008
Climate Change and Middle East Geopolitics: Risks and Opportunities
Prof. Dan RabinowitzDept. of Sociology and Anthropology, TAU
andPorter School of Environmental Studies, TAU
Vice-Chair, Greenpeace UK
Especially Effected Systems (IPCC 2007)• Mediterranean-type ecosystems (reduction in rainfall)• Water resources in some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics (changes in rainfall and evapo-transpiration)• Low-lying coastal systems (threat of sea level rise; increased risk from extreme weather events)• Agriculture in low latitudes (reduced water availability)• Coastal mangroves and salt marshes (multiple stresses)• Risks to human health (populations with low adaptive capacity).
Climate Change – Main Impacts• Desertification, food crop failure• Water stress• Sea level rise• Ecosystem damage• Stronger, more frequent (tropical) storms• Disease and epidemic spread (wider insect distributions)
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Modelling the recent evolution of global drought and projections for the 21st century with the Hadley Centre climate Model, Eleanor J. Burke, Simon J. Brown and Nikolaos Christidis, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office
איזור המפרץ הפרסי, המזרח התיכון
איזור המפרץ הפרסי, המזרח התיכון
דלתת הנילוס, מצריים
דלתת הנילוס, מצריים
Source: El Raey (OECD) 2004
"Climate change is best viewed as a threat multiplier which exacerbates existing
trends, tensions and instability. The core
challenge is that climate change threatens to overburden states and regions which are already fragile and conflict-prone. The risks include political and security risks that directly affect European interests.“
(Solana and Ferrero-Waldner 2008)
The result may be
"a vicious circle of degradation, migration and conflicts over territory and borders that threatens the political stability of countries and regions".And:
more ‘failed states’, where frustration and disenchantment breed ethnic and religious strife, and political radicalisation.
(Solana and Ferrero-Waldner 2008)
Tel-Aviv University
Renewable Energy ConferenceMay 21st 2008
Climate Change and Middle East Geopolitics: Risks and Opportunities
Prof. Dan RabinowitzDept. of Sociology and Anthropology, TAU
andPorter School of Environmental Studies, TAU
Vice-Chair, Greenpeace UK