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The 3 ‘Geos’

How

geopolitics,

geoeconomics, and

geophysics are reshaping

the world

Cleo PaskalAssociate Fellow, Chatham House, London

Chatham House Climate Change 2012: Session One, Security and Climate Change

Chatham House, London, 15 October 2012

What I’ll say

What I’ll mean

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$#@*&$!!!

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$$#@*&$!!!

$$#@*&$!!!

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$$#@*&$!!!

Time Perspective in Governance

(or one way of looking at national ‘personalities’)

Many ‘Western’ Countries Many ‘(re) Emerging’ Countr ies

Considers itself, essentially, domestically, in a time of peace.

Developed Country Complacency Syndrome (physical and legal infrastructure)

- Perceived to have created and ‘own’ global systems

Possible generational stagnation

Time horizon short term(in U.S. two year electoral cycle, quarterly economic results)

In many cases at least bordering an active conflict zone, but definite sense of urgency

Visible growth, change and development. Sense of national mission.

- Understand, but question, existing global systems (World Bank, IMF, US$)

Hope children will have better future than parents (more willing to sacrifice now for better future)

Political time horizon longer term(In China some shifts generational; in India political parties can ‘belong’ to families; in Russia…)

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What are corporate priorities?Meeting between U.S. Officials and

Gazprom's Director of Foreign Relations, Ivan Zolotov

Sept. 19. 2008

• Gazprom's Director of Foreign Relations, Ivan Zolotov– to fulfill the gas needs of domestic industrial and residential

consumers

– to fulfill its "social obligations," which include a variety of, in effect, charitable projects throughout the country.

• Americans– maximizing shareholder value?

• Gazprom’s Zolotov:– to maximize control over global energy resources

“It’s capitalism, Jim, but not as we know it”

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Geopolitically and Geoeconomically

some nations playing Monopoly, some playing Risk

Meherangarh Fort, India

Masada, Israel

Edinburgh Castle, Scotland

Now, The Third Geo: Geophysical

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Pennsylvania, September, 2011

Queensland, January 2, 2012

Mississippi, May, 2011

Bangkok, October 25, 2011

Decree of the President of the Russian Federation

“On Approval of the Food Security Doctrine of the

Russian Federation” January 30, 2010

(Food as commodity vs. strategic asset)

• “Food security of the Russian Federation is one of the key areas of ensuring the country’s national security in the medium term”– Grain, potatoes: 95%

– Sugar, vegetable oil, fish products: 80%

– meat and meat products (on meat basis): 85%,

– milk and dairy products (on milk basis): 90%

• “Foreign trade policy must be developed in compliance with the food security criteria.”

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Legal/Regulatory InfrastructureCase study: Law of the Sea

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200

miles

200

miles

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3Gs: Kiribati � Fiji

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3Gs: Kiribati � Fiji � China

Arctic or Northern Pacific?

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Undiscovered Arctic oil fields

Undiscovered Arctic gas fields

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2012 has seen the following along the NSR (starting in late June);

•Murmansk Shipping Company – ‘Indiga’ and ‘Varzuga’ – Diesel to NSR settlements•Nordic Bulk Carriers A/S – ‘Nordic Odyssey’ and ‘Nordic Orion’ – Iron ore concentrate to China•Novatek – ‘Marilee’ and ‘Palva’ – Gas condensate to South Korea•‘Stena Poseidon’ – Kerosene from South Korea to Finland•‘Vengeri’ – Tugboat•Chinese Icebreaker ‘Xuelong’ – Arctic expedition

• Research bases in Antarctic and Arctic.

• Applying for status at Arctic Council.

• Already has another Icebreaker on order.

• Large number of Chinese nationals working in Siberia.

• Actively courting Canadian Aboriginal leaders.

China in the Arctic (aka Northern Pacific?)

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Fall of 2008, around 25 Canadian Aboriginal

leaders invited to China. Some quotes:

• Delegation head Chief Calvin Helin "Canadian aboriginals own or control about a third of the Canadian land mass." Went to Beijing to "tell China that Aboriginal Canada was open for business.”

• Chief Glenn Hudson of Manitoba's Peguis Indian Band explained that the trip was "an important step for us in moving forward. Our future is not only in Canada, but partnering with other countries."

China ‘gets’ the 3 geos

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It is good to plan long term.

But just because you have a long term plan, it doesn’t mean the plan is any good.

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Evacuations from China’s Coastal Areas

• 2005 (July), Typhoon Haitang. – Around 1,000,000 evacuated.

• 2005 (September), Typhoon Talim. – Over 790,000 evacuated from.

• 2006 (May), Typhoon Chanchu. – Over 1,000,000 evacuated

• 2006 (July), Typhoon Bilis. – Around 320,000 evacuated

• 2007 (September), Typhoon Wipha. – Around 2,000,000 evacuated

• 2007 (October), Typhoon Krosa. – Over 1,400,000 evacuated

• 2008 (July), Typhoon Fung-Wong. – Around 600,000 evacuated

• 2008 (September), Typhoon Sinlaku. – Around 460,000 evacuated

• 2009 (August), Typhoon Morakot. – Around 1,000,000 evacuate from

• 2010, Typhoon Megi. – Around 270,000 evacuated from

• 2011 (August), Typhoon Muifa.– Around 1.35 million evacuated – A chemical plant toxic waste containment pool breached, leading to

demonstrations and political unrest.• 2012 (August), Typhoons Saola and Damrey

– Around 867,000 people evacuated• 2012 (August), Typhoon Haikui

– Almost 2 million people evacuated

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The 3G storm is here. We need 3G strategies that move, and adapt, through time and space.

Soon the rarest commodity of all might be

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Soon the rarest commodity of all might be

39

Security

Thank you