ANUPAM CHAKRAVARTYCCTP-817

The Arab Spring and Climate Change

The Arab Spring

Source: The Economist. http://wacsfschools.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/arab-spring.gif

Climate and Security Correlations

Center for American Progress Series Anne-Marie Slaughter (Princeton University) Troy Sternberg (Oxford University) Sarah Johnstone and Jeffrey Mazo (International

Institute for Strategic Studies) Francesco Femia and Caitlin Werrell (Center for

Climate and Security) Michael Werz and Max Hoffman (Center for American

Progress) David Michel and Mona Yacoubian (Stimson Center)

New York Times Columnist Thomas Friedman

Climate and Security Correlations

ECONOMIC POLITICALDEMOGRAPHIC

POPULARUPRISINGS

CLIMATE CHANGE

Economics: Climate & Scarcity

SUPPLY SIDESevere Drought Conditions in

China(World’s Largest Wheat Producer)

Drought, Heat Waves & Fires in Russia & Ukraine

Cold in CanadaExcessive Rain

in Australia

Economics: Climate & Scarcity

DEMAND SIDEEgypt:

Bread provides one-third of the caloric intake 38% of income is spent on food

“The doubling of global wheat prices — from $157/metric ton in June 2010 to $326/metric ton in February 2011 — thus significantly impacted the country’s food supply and availability.” (Sternberg)

Economics: Climate & Scarcity

Source: http://necsi.edu/research/social/food_crises.pdf

Demographics: Climate & Population

Drought and desertification in the Sahel undermined agricultural and pastoral livelihoods Syria: 30% workforce employed in the

agricultural sector (2002) 15% workforce employed in the agricultural sector (2010)

Displaces rural communities; causes major urban migration Syria: 50,000 families migrated from

rural areas to cities in 2010. Tunisia: Rural population declines in

2010 while overall population increases.

Demographics: Climate & Population

Further stressing water availability Yemen: Clashes over illegal wells

Exacerbating urban unemployment “Angry, poor, ‘bored’ young men”

Stressing city infrastructure & servicesBrings diverse tribal, ethnic and religious

groups together in cities

Political: Climate & Governance Crises

International dependence on oil Dictatorships consolidating wealth in oil revenues Expanding Qatari and Saudi Arabian geopolitical

influence

Scarcity strains regionally shared water resources Libya: 93% arid; the aquifers it is draining for Qaddafi’s

water project are shared by Egypt, Chad, and Sudan Syria: On-going water disputes with Turkey

Corrupt and inefficient regimes are exposed as incapable of managing stress

How Does Climate Change Influence Conflict?

“Globalization of Hazard” Increases global-local linkages

Localized climate events in China Global market trends and “agflation” Local food shortages in Egypt

“Threat Multiplier” Effect Exposes fragile political systems to more, multifaceted

weaknesses

“Eroding the Social Contract”

Opportunities for Foreign Policy

Encourage regional cooperation & coordination on sustainability projects Build trust for fledgling & established governments Improve resource management infrastructure and

shares best practices Create shared value

Engage with at-risk groups: human-interest diplomacy Provide opportunities for those most affected by

demographic shifts and limited access to service.

Works Cited

Werell, Caitlin E., Francesco Femia, and Anne-Marie Slaughter, eds. "The Arab Spring and Climate Change." Center for American Progress (2013). 28 Feb. 2013. <http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/ClimateChangeArabSpring.pdf>

Friedman, Thomas. “The Scary Hidden Stressor.” The New York Times (2013). 2 Mar. 2013. <http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/03/opinion/sunday/friedman-the-scary-hidden-stressor.html>

Lagi, Marco, Karla Z. Bertrand, and Yaneer Bar-Yam. "The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East.” New England Complex Systems Institute, 28 Sept. 2011. <http://necsi.edu/research/social/food_crises.pdf>.

Aziza, Tareq. “On the Oil that Burned the Arab Spring.” Al-Akhbar English. 16 Nov. 2012. <http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/13824>