American Economic Association

The Balance of Births and Deaths by Robert R. KuczynskiReview by: A. B. WolfeThe American Economic Review, Vol. 20, No. 2 (Jun., 1930), pp. 346-349Published by: American Economic AssociationStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/461 .

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346 Reviews and New Books [June

women in 11 selected cities indicates that another third were childless wives living with husbands who also were gainfully employed. However, between two-thirds and three-fourths of the married women were en- gaged in occupations which could not be carried on in their homes; the employment groups of over 100,000 in the order of their importance were factory operatives, domestic servants, laundresses, clerical workers and saleswomen in stores.

Women, like men, find difficulty in obtaining gainful employment when they are over 45 years old. Thus, in cities of over 100,000 inhabitants, where the most varied opportunities for employment are found, over half (55.3 per cent) of the women 16 to 24 years old were gainfully employed in 1920, but the percentage for those 45 years old or over was 18.3. The latter group is small because many of these older women are oc- cupied as homemakers, but the proportion of the older unmarried wo- men who can find profitable work is also much smaller; two-thirds of the single, widowed or divorced women 20 to 44 years old are gainfully employed, but this is true of only 27.9 per cent of those who are 45 or older. Moreover, the census reports indicate that these older women find employment chiefly in menial and poorly-paid occupations. The frequency of their old age destitution makes evident their great need for opportunities for gainful employment. The Massachusetts canvass in 1924 of nearly twenty thousand aged persons in typical communities revealed that about two-thirds of those who were without means of sup- port in old age were women and 80 per cent of these destitute old women had been housewives.

The elaborate, detailed tables of the monograph supply complete information, not only about the occupations of over eight million work- ing women, but also about their marital status, living conditions and family relations. The picture presented refutes many of the more sen- sational generalizations-particularly those of foreign visitors-about the activities and family relations of moderni American women.

LUCILE EAVES

Women's Educational and Industrial Union Boston, Massachusetts

The Balance of Births and Deaths. Vol. I. Western and Northern Europe. By ROBERT R. KUCZYNSKI. (New York: Macmillan. 1929. Pp. xi, 140. $2.00.)

This is one of the publications of the Institute of Economics, Brook- ings Institution, and is, notwithstanding its brevity, one of the most im- portant issued by that institution. That crude birth and death rates are an unreliable measure of human fertility has been generally recog- nized for at least half a century. Consequently "corrected birth rates"

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1930] Population and Migration 347

or birth rates per thousand women of child-bearing age, have been cal- culated by most registration bureaus and used by most vital statisti- cians. Latterly even "specific" birth (or fertility) rates, analogous to specific death rates, or death rates at ages, have frequently appeared in careful discussions. By the use of such rates, much more accurate comparisons between the fertilities of two different populations or of the same population at different times can be made than those made by the use of the familiar rate per thousand married women of child- bearing age. To the evolution of accuracy in the interpretation of birth rates and fertility rates, this little volume makes a notable con- tribution, both in method and in results.

At first thought it is a paradox that a population in which births exceed deaths may nevertheless be a population doomed to decline in numbers unless there is an increase in fertility rate or decrease in death rate, or both; but Kuczynski shows clearly, by simple arithmetic, that it is not only theoretically a fact but that the population of north and west Europe, with an annual excess of births over deaths (in 1926) of 1,470,000, stands actually in this position. Dublin and Lotka' in 1925 showed that the rate of natural increase in the United States would be cut in half by inevitable change in age and sex constitution, if the specific fertility rates should remain what they were in 1920. But Dub- lin and Lotka arrived at their result by a complicated mathematical analysis somewhat "caviar to the general." As early as 1895,;in fact, Edwin Cannan had called attention to the significance of changing age constitution in the future rate of population growth; and after the war Bowley returned to the problem, partly from the point of view of the unemployment problem and the future labor supply. It cannot be said, therefore, that Kuczynski is breaking new ground, except in so far as he utilizes a simple, yet adequate, method wholly understandable by anyone who knows arithmetic as far as simple fractions and percentage, and in so far as his results pertain to all the countries of north and west Europe and are of a somewhat startling nature.

The gist of Kuczynski's method, part of which was worked out by Richard Boeckh in Berlin as early as 1886, and by Kuczynski himself in 1907, is to find from a life table the number, out of 1,000 live-born girl babies, that will survive to specific ages, or to specific quinquennial groups of ages, from 15 to 50-that is, to and through the thirty-five years of the childbearing period-and then on the basis of specific fer- tility rates to calculate the number of girl babies the survivors will have. Any further characterization of the method would virtually require a

1"On the True Rate of Natural Increase," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Sept., 1925, vol. xx.

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348 Reviews and New Books [June

verbatim reproduction of .Kuczynski's own explanation, which is clear, concrete, and unburdened of non-essentials.

His results are as follows:

"According to the fertility in Western and Northern Europe in 1926, the number of girls born to each woman is 1.12, and the number of children (boys and girls) born to each woman is 2.3."

But this takes no account of the mortality of females before and during the childbearing age. Hence, "according to the fertility and mortality in Western and Northern Europe in 1926, 100 mothers give birth to 93 future mothers only. With the fertility of 1926 the popula- tion is bound to die out unless mortality of potential mothers decreases beyond reasonable expectations."

Kuczynski believes that no very significant decrease in mortality is to be looked for, because the mortality in the ages that count in this problem is already so low. He wisely wholly refrains from any attempt to explain the decline in fertility since 1880 or to suggest what should, or should not, be done about it. A more rigidly objective analysis of the population movement it would be impossible to find. This needs to be said, because one well-known student of population in a recent review has characterized the book as "emotional." Nothing could be farther from the truth.

That Kuczynski's results may lead to some emotionalism, especially on the part of popular opponents of birth control, is probable. In fact, the only reason why they have not already done so can only be that they have not yet found their way into popular print.

What the results indicate, if we venture to go back of them, is un- doubtedly a phenomenal spread and intensity of birth control in Europe. They may suggest that the movement, looked at from one angle, has gone far enough, or even too far. But they do not in any way remove the solid moral ground upon which the voluntary and conscious control of the size of the family must always rest. It may be that European population ought to go on increasing indefinitely, not in the interest of warring nationals, but in that of the happiness of peoples; or it may be that a material reduction of numbers is just what Europe most needs. Knut Wicksell, in no uncertain terms, has lent the weight of his authority to the latter idea. In any case, whether the optimum population is greater than or less than the population which will result in the next few decades from the present fertility rates in European countries, that optimum should be attained through the conscious and informed want- ing, on the part of the potential mothers, of the required number of children.

Professor Kuczynski is now at work on a similar analysis for south

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1930] Population and Migration 349

and east Europe; and one for the United States is promised. Both will be awaited eagerly by all serious students of population.

A. B. WOLFE Ohio State University

NEW BOOKS BRENNA, P. G. Storia dell'emigrazione italiana. (Rome: Libreria Ed.

Mantegazza. 1928. Pp. 310. L.18.) CULLITON, J. T. National problems of Canada: assisted emigration and land

settlement., with special reference to western Canada. McGill Univ. econ. studies no. 9. (Montreal: McGill Univ. 1928. Pp. 79.)

KOHLER, M. J. Legal disabilities of aliens in the United States. Reprinted from the American Bar Association Journal, February, 1930. (New York: American Bar Assoc. 1930. Pp. 15.)

LINDBERG, J. S. The background of Swedish emigration to the United States. (Minneapolis: Univ. of Minnesota Press. 1930. Pp. vii, 272. $2.50.)

"Swedish emigration to America began within the recollection of living men. Further, the first Swedish emigrants were not, like certain of the later groups, illiterate men, for among them were persons of culture and refinement, and these have left behind them memoirs, letters, and other written records. Moreover, statistical data referring to Swedish emigra- tion are unusually complete. The Swedish official statistics, especially for population, not only date very far back but are also of a high quality throughout. The uniform cultural and racial character of the Swedish nation makes it possible to avoid the complications that confuse the stu- dents of less homogeneous groups."

An interesting study of the causes of migration and its "pattern." Chapters deal with the agrarian background and its revolution; customs concerning indebtedness and inheritance; the character of the emigra- tion; and return of emigrants.

SAYERS, J. D. Can the white race survive? (Washington: Independent Pub. Co. 1929. Pp. 255.)

SGRO, E. Demograf/a della Calabria. (Naples: Tip. Fratelli Ciolfi. 1928. Pp. 53.)

THOMPSON, W. S. Danger spots in world population. (New York: Knopf. 1929. Pp. xi, 343, x. $3.50.)

This is a sincere, concise and clearly presented statement of the prob- lem of the pressure of population as a cause of national unrest and ulti- mately possible war. Coupled with this, the author offers a remedy for relieving population pressure by its redistribution in lands not yet fully occupied. Although the remedy may provoke wide dissent, the survey of actual conditions which prevail in countries burdened by an excessive population justifies the most thoughtful consideration of those interested in international relationships.

The author surveys the growths of population in Japan, China, Aus- tralia, the Pacific Islands, India, South Africa, Italy, Central Europe, and Great Britain, and with these facts correlates more or less compre- hensively data relating to the natural resources of the respective countries and the potential opportunities for providing for future increases either by additional food supplies, or by domestic industrialization which will

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