the cassel report - june 2011

8/6/2019 The Cassel Report - June 2011

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Derek Cassel 2011 1

The Cassel Report June 2011Because Knowledge is your first line of defense. 208-440-9548 / [email protected]

As a Realtor, I suppose that I spend more time than most people behind the wheel of a car

with this thought running through my mind: I wonder how I get there from here. Mostdays, I end up driving to some place Ive never been before in order to show houses ormeet with potential sellers. Its easy enough to get around on the main roads here in

Idaho, but things get a little squirrely once you enter the larger subdivisions. This is

probably intentional and discourages people from using subdivision streets as shortcuts,

but it definitely makes my job harder. Sometimes I incorrectly guess where a road willcome out and have to backtrack. Thats always frustrating, but there is an equally strong

sense of satisfaction when I follow my instincts and end up exactly where I think I should

be. Call it an I told you so moment if you will, but sometimes it just feels good to beright! Thats exactly how I felt when I saw the Real Estate market data for this past

month. Two of the graphs are starting to respond exactly as I expected, and its good

news for our market as a whole.

The total number of sales last month increased slightly, so we are still mirroring the trend

from 2010. As I mentioned last month, we want to see how long this ride of increased

sales lasts. Thats what really separates one summer buying season from the next.

Many people look at the new construction market as a signal of demand, but it takes too

long to react. Existing home sales are immediate and show what people are doing rightnow. As you can see from the New vs. Existing Sales graph, our increase in sales last

month came from existing homes. New construction remained at about where its been

since the end of the Federal Tax Credit last year.

The average sales price ticked up, but only slightly. This was a result in the volatility of

new construction pricing. We are still waiting for the elusive start of appreciation for

existing homes.

And now we get to the really good part! I know it looks like theres a mistake on the

Average Days On Market graph, but its completely accurate. In the biggest one monthdrop in over two years, and the lowest number weve seen in the last two years, the

average time to sell a house fell to only 58 days. This shows an incredible increase in

demand and competition for houses on the market.

Reflecting the same strength, we also see a huge shift in the balance of power betweenbuyers and seller. Sellers are only giving up about 5% from their original asking price,

which is the smallest concession theyve made in over 2 years.

And why are these things happening? Because once again, we are not getting enough

new listings each month to make up for the number that have sold. Its supply anddemand. Stay tuned to the Cassel Report throughout the summer to see our market

changing!


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DerekCassel2011

2

TotalNumberofSales

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

N

ov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

LastYear

CurrentYear


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DerekCassel2011

3

TotalNumberofSalesby

County

60,0

00.0

0

80,0

00.0

0

100,0

00.0

0

120,0

00.0

0

140,0

00.0

0

160,0

00.0

0

180,0

00.0

0

200,0

00.0

0

220,0

00.0

0

240,0

00.0

0 6/20

09

7/20

09

8/20

09 9

/200

9 10/2

009

11/2

009

12/2

009

1/20

10

2/20

10

3/20

10 4/2

010

5/20

10

6/20

10

7/20

10

8/20

10

9/20

10 1

0/2

010

11/20

1012

/2010

1/20

11

2/20

11

3/20

11

4/20

11

5/20

11

Average

Ada

Canyon


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DerekCassel2011

4

TotalSalesVolume

2ndQtr

3rdQtr

4thQtr

1stQtr

CurrentYear

LastYear

0.00

100,000,000.00

200,000,000.00

300,000,000.00

400,000,000.00

500,000,000.00

600,000,000.00

700,000,000.00

CurrentYear

LastYear


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DerekCassel2011

5

New

vs.ExistingSales

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700 6

/200

97/20

09

8/20

09

9/20

09

10/20

0911

/2009

12/2

009

1/20

10

2/20

10

3/20

10

4/20

10

5/20

10

6/20

10

7/20

10

8/20

10

9/20

10

10/2

010

11/2

010

12/2

010

1/20

11

2/20

11

3/2

011

4/20

11

5/20

11

Total

New

Existing


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DerekCassel2011

6

100,0

00.0

0

120,0

00.0

0

140,0

00.0

0

160,0

00.0

0

180,0

00.0

0

200,0

00.0

0

220,0

00.0

0

240,0

00.0

0 6/2

009

7/20

09

8/20

09 9/

2009

10/2

009

11/2

009

12/2

009

1/20

10

2/20

10 3

/201

04/

2010

5/20

10

6/20

10

7/20

10

8/20

10 9

/201

0 10/2

010

11/2

010

12/2

010

1/20

11

2/20

113/

2011

4/20

11

5/20

11

Average

Existing

New

AverageSalesPrice:New

vs.Existing


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DerekCassel2011

7

AverageSalesPrice

60,0

00.0

0

80,0

00.0

0

100,0

00.0

0

120,0

00.0

0

140,0

00.0

0

160,0

00.0

0

180,0

00.0

0

200,0

00.0

0

220,0

00.0

0

240,0

00.0

0 6/20

09

7/20

09

8/20

09

9/200

9 10/2

009

11/2

009

12/2

009

1/20

10

2/20

10

3/20

10 4/2

010

5/20

10

6/20

10

7/20

10

8/20

10

9/20

10 1

0/2

010 1

1/2

010

12/2

010

1/20

11

2/20

11

3/20

11

4/20

11

5/201

1

Average

Ada

Canyon


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DerekCassel2011

8

AverageDaysOnMarket

forExistingHomes

010

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90 6

/200

97/20

09

8/20

09

9/20

09

10/20

0911

/2009

12/2

009

1/20

10

2/20

10

3/20

10

4/20

10

5/20

10

6/20

10

7/20

10

8/20

10

9/201

010

/2010

11/2

010

12/2

010

1/20

11

2/20

11

3/2

011

4/20

11

5/20

11

Average

Poly.

(Average)


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DerekCassel2011

9

SalesbyCategory

33%

37%

32%

31%

20%

16%

17%

17%

48%

47%

51%

52%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2/2011

3/2011

4/2011

5/2011

REO

Sales

ShortSales

Traditional


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DerekCassel2011

10

Buyervs.Seller:Relative

Strength

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

6/20

09

7/20

09

8/20

09

9/2009

10/2

009

11/2

009

12/2

009

1/20

10

2/20

10

3/201

04/

2010

5/20

10

6/20

10

7/20

10

8/20

10

9/201

010

/2010

11/2

010

12/2

010

1/20

11

2/20

11

3/20

11

4/20

11

5/20

11

ExistingHomeNegotiations

Poly.(ExistingH

omeNegotiations)


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DerekCassel2011

12

New

Listingsvs.Monthly

Closings

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000 6

/200

97/20

09

8/20

09

9/20

09 10

/2009

11/2

009

12/2

009

1/20

10

2/20

10

3/20

10

4/20

10

5/20

10

6/20

10

7/20

10

8/20

10

9/20

10

10/2

010

11/2

010

12/2

010

1/20

11

2/20

11 3

/201

14/

2011

5/20

11

Closings

Listin

gs


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Derek Cassel 2011 14

New Listings vs. Monthly Closings

The number of homes on the market (inventory) changes so rapidly that it is useless to attempt toprovide a running count of that inventory. Such a count would only represent a snapshot in timewhich could be seriously out of line with reality within a few minutes of its being taken. In order toget an accurate picture of the way that the inventory is changing over time the total number ofnew homes coming on to the market each month is compared to the total number of homesleaving the market (because of a sale). Each month during which there are more new listingsthan sales represents a theoretical increase in the inventory. Because it is impossible to predictwhich new listings will leave the market for a reason other than a sale, numbers of new listings for

a given month will continue to adjust for a few months until the only remaining new listings for thatmonth are also listings which ended up selling at some point.


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the cassel report - june 2011

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