1

The Challenge of Mobility in Europe

Maciej Mączka,

Institute of Aviation, Poland

"Personal Air Transportation in Europe and opportunitiesfor a revival of the small aircraft manufacturers"

EPATS Conference

ILA, Berlin, May 28, 2008

2

European globalised economy

ESPON 2007

IMF 2007

• Economy indicator: Gross Domestic Product (PPP)

• Year: 2008

• European Union (27 countries)

• Estimated at 13 -14 trillion US dollars

3

• Good: Thousands of advanced services firms• Bad: EU share of World GDP increases thanks

to integration, not the economy growth

4

Economy gets better under certain circumstances among

which a good

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

is one of the most important

5

Transport networks

CAR

• 215 389 000 cars in EU25

ESPON, 2005EUROSTAT for 2004

• +5 million cars/year

• +1 million km/10years

• 4 820 000 km of roads• 58 100 km of motorways

6

Transport networks

TRAIN

50 000 railcars in EU25- 3000 rail cars/year

200 000 km of railway lines

5566 km* of High Speed Train (HST)

3474 km* under construction

HST

HSTHSTc

HSTc

HSTc

ESPON 2005

and UIC for HST location in 2008

EUROSTAT for 2003

* UIC in 2008

Construction of HST

1km = 27 000 000 €

7

AIR

Transport networks

2570 airports and landing fields

85% of traffic CONCENTRATED at 43 large airports (HUBs)

5000 aircraft of commercial fleet

10 000 000 flights (IFR)

EUROSTAT 2007

EUROCONTROL 2007

EPATS 2008

8

Volume of passenger-kilometers

* EUROSTAT for 2000 ** Period: 1995-2004

• Road transport (4,1 trillions pkm*; share: 86%; dynamics: +17,7%**)

• Train transport (0,3 trillions pkm*; share: 6%; dynamics: +8,6%**)

• Air transport (0,4 trillions pkm*; share: 8%; dynamics: +49%**)

9

Accessibility

• Multimodal potential accessibility measures transport infrastructure quality of modes (car,rail,air)

POOR < > GOOD

ESPON 2004

10

• on interregional national and European destinations • with underdeveloped transport network, • where implementation of others modes of fast transport is irrational due to too low flow of passengers

exists a TRANSPORTATION GAP

11

How to measure the gap?• Knowing Origin-

Destination passenger flows enables calculations. However, it is very difficult or even hardly achievable to gather such empirical data.

• Therefore a model should be built.

• Or - an existing model outcomes could be adopted…

?

12

Adopting origin-destination passenger flows from ESPON (KTEN

model)

(69%) Road pkm: 25 * 10^12 pkm

(18%) Rail pkm: 6,7 * 10^12 pkm

(13%) Air pkm: 4,8 * 10^12 pkm

Total pkm: 36 * 10^12 pkm

Numbers are ESPON Project 2.1.1 MCRIT’s model output

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

160 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300

distance [km]

trillio

ns

of

pk

m

roadrailair

There are shorter distances and longer distances

13

(69%) Road pkm: 25 * 10^12 pkm

(18%) Rail pkm: 6,7 * 10^12 pkm

(13%) Air pkm: 4,8 * 10^12 pkm

Total pkm: 36 * 10^12 pkm

Numbers are ESPON Project 2.1.1 MCRIT’s model output

EPATS estimations of the gap :

c.a. 150 * 10^9 pkm

How wide is the gap?

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

160 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300

distance [km]

trillio

ns

of

pk

m

EPATS estimateroadrailair

There are shorter distances and longer distances

14

European Personal Air Transportation System (EPATS) is a concept ofInteractive Transportation System,which adapts aircraft, flight trajectoryand transportation services topersonalized passenger needs.

• It is to give travelers a free choice of transport mode, according to their need, and limited by their time value

„Improving the energy efficiency of allmodes of transport”according „European Energy Strategy for Transport”

• It enables origin-destination travel between all Europeanregions at speeds considerably higher than car speed, and yet, at equivalent costs

What fits the gap?

15

Conclusions• Europe needs a new, supplementary mode of transport

• A mode that is harmonized with general trends (door-to-door, multimodality, energy efficiency)

• A mode that will give us a new tool to manage the challenge of mobility

16

Make your individual escape from massive car traffic

17

SOURCES• http://www.espon.eu – European Spatial Planning and Observatory

Network; ESPON Project 3.4.1, Europe in the World: Territorial evidence and visions, results by autumn 2007; ESPON Project 2.1.1, Territorial Impact of EU: Transport and TEN Policies, 2005

• http://epp.eurostat.ec.eu – EUROSTAT, Panorama of Transport, 2007

• http://www.uic.asso.fr - The International Union of Railways (UIC): UIC Project - Lasting Infrastructure Cost Benchmarking (LICB) - LICB Summary_Report UIC C 2006/12/15

• http://www.eurocontrol.int – CFMU Network operation report 2007, March 2008, ver.1

• http://epats.eu – EPATS D2.1 EPATS Potential transfer of passenger demand to Personal Aviation; EPATS D1.1 T1.2 EPATS Airports and facilities database