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THE FRIENDSHIP PARADOX
Jackson (Guannan) Lu
April 6, 2013
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A SIMPLE QUESTION:
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A SIMPLE QUESTION:
v Do you have more Facebook friends than your
Facebook friends do on average?
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A FUN FACT (2011)
v The average Facebook user has 245 friends.
v Yet, the average friend of a Facebook user has 359 friends.
è The “friendship paradox” (Scott Feld, 1991)
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GOAL
Compare:
The average # of friends of individuals
vs
The average # of friends of individuals’ friends
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GOAL
Define “score”= the number of friends one has
Thus, compare:
The average score of individuals
vs
The average score of individuals’ friends
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A CONCRETE EXAMPLE
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Person # of friends (=i’s Score)
A 1
B 3
C 2 D 2
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Person # of friends (=i’s Score)
# of friends of i’s friends (=total score of i’s friends)
A 1 3
B 3 5 (=1+ 2 + 2) C 2 5 (=3+2) D 2 5 (=3+2)
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Person # of friends (=i’s Score)
# of friends of i’s friends (=total score of i’s friends)
Average # of friends of i’s friends (=average score of i’s friends)
A 1 3 3 (=3/1)
B 3 5 (=1+ 2 + 2) 1.67 (=5/3) C 2 5 (=3+2) 2.50 (=5/2) D 2 5 (=3+2) 2.50 (=5/2)
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Person # of friends (=i’s Score)
# of friends of i’s friends (=total score of i’s friends)
Average # of friends of i’s friends (=average score of i’s friends)
A 1 3 3 (=3/1)
B 3 5 (=1+ 2 + 2) 1.67 (=5/3) C 2 5 (=3+2) 2.50 (=5/2) D 2 5 (=3+2) 2.50 (=5/2)
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Person # of friends (=i’s Score)
# of friends of i’s friends (=total score of i’s friends)
Average # of friends of i’s friends (=average score of i’s friends)
A 1 3 3 (=3/1)
B 3 5 (=1+ 2 + 2) 1.67 (=5/3) C 2 5 (=3+2) 2.50 (=5/2) D 2 5 (=3+2) 2.50 (=5/2) Total 8 18
Mean 2 2.25 (=18/8)
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A CONCRETE EXAMPLE
v On average, each individual has 2 friends
v Whereas on average, each friend has 2.25 friends!
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THE MATHEMATICAL PROOF
v Suppose that there are n individuals in the system
v Suppose that person i ( i = A, B, C, D, etc.) has score xi
v The average score of individuals: μ= Σxi /n
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TH E TO TA L SC O RE O F INDIVIDUALS ’ FR I E N D S
v To calculate the total score of an individual’s
friends, we simply need to add up his friends’ scores.
(e.g., if B is friends with A, C, D, we will need to add
up the scores xA, xC, xD. )
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TH E TO TA L SC O RE O F INDIV IDUA LS ’ FR I E N D S
Notice: The only times we need to include the score of
a person i (i.e. xi) to the total scores of friends in the
system is for his friends. (e.g., the only times the term xB
appears in the total sum is for B’s friends A, C, and D)
v For each person i, the sum has the term (xi)(xi)= xi2
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Person # of friends (=i’s Score)
# of friends of i’s friends (=total score of i’s friends)
Average # of friends of i’s friends (=average score of i’s friends)
A 1 3 3 (=3/1)
B 3 5 (=1+ 2 + 2) 1.67 (=5/3) C 2 5 (=3+2) 2.50 (=5/2) D 2 5 (=3+2) 2.50 (=5/2) Total 8 18
Mean 2 2.25 (=18/8)
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TH E AV E R AG E SCORE OF INDIVIDUALS ’ FRIENDS
v The total score of individuals’ friends= Σ(xi)2
v The average score of individuals’ friends=
Σ(xi)2/ Σxi
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BY STATISTICS…
v Variance σ2 = (Σ(xi)2/n) – μ2
To re-arrange it:
è Σ(xi)2 = (μ2 + σ2)n
è Σ(xi)2/Σxi = (μ2 + σ2)n/(μn) = μ+ (σ2/μ)
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HENCE…
v The average score of individuals= μ
v The average score of individuals’ friends= μ+ (σ2/μ)