the integrated resource plan 2
DESCRIPTION
Building on the Findings of t he Electricity Governance Initiative South Africa . The Integrated Resource Plan 2. Durban 10 May 2010. Energy Research Centre. IRP 2 is Critical. Determines whether South Africa: has adequate electricity to meet demand - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Integrated Resource Plan 2
Durban 10 May 2010
Energy ResearchCentre
Building on the Findings of the Electricity Governance Initiative South Africa
IRP 2 is Critical
Determines whether South Africa:
• has adequate electricity to meet demand• extends access to electricity for the poor • reduces its GHG emissions • continues on an energy intensive economic
path, or charts a new path to green growth
Coordination
• Renewable Energy White Paper
• Integrated Energy Plan
• Climate Change Policy
• Industrial Policy Action Plan
• National Planning Commission
IRP 2 process• IRP 1 released by cabinet in December 2009
– interim 5 year plan
• MYPD 2 decision made, but without clarity on long term plans
• Now proposing a 2 part consultation– First on the assumptions that go into energy models (May) – And second on the scenarios developed (late June)– Working group on IRP 2 reports to the IMC on energy
• Maximize opportunities to have input
Intergovernmental consultation on assumptions
• Public consultation on assumptions through online portal
Stakeholder workshop to agree on assumptions
• Modeling of scenarios begins
MARCH – MAY 2010 MAY - JUNE 2010 JUNE – JULY 2010
Proposed IRP 2 process
Integrated Resource Planning and Scheduling
Andrew Marquard, Brett Cohen, Mavo Solomon, Bruno Merven
Energy Systems Analysis and PlanningEnergy Research Centre
Contents Global history of IRP South African history of IRP NIRP I NIRP II NIRP III *IRP 1 Dispatching/scheduling of units Integrated Energy Planning
History of Electricity Planning US Electricity planning in the 1960’s
Strong and consistent electricity growth Easily matched by bulk supply Simple trending techniques addressed concerns
on future requirements Changes in the 1970’s
Arab oil embargo with price volatilities Nuclear Plant 3 Mile Island Less growth, rampant inflation, implied less
predictability in planning
US Electricity Planning in the 1970s
History cont. Energy conservation prominence in
the 1980’sBalancing the need build plants with
using less energyEvolved into demand side managementComplexity of planning analysis LEAST COST PLANNINGIntegrated Resource Planning
IRP versus Traditional PlanningTraditional Planning
Focus on utility-owned central power plants
Planning within utility system planning department
All resources owned by the utility
Resources selected to minimise electricity prices and maintain system reliability
Integrated Resource Planning Diversity of resources - utility plants, power purchases, DSM,
T&D improvements Planning spread among several departments, involving
customers (and government?) IPPs and small producers could also be included Diverse resource selection criteria - prices, revenue
requirements, utility financial health, risk, fuel diversity, environmental quality
Source: Spalding-Fetcher
IRP, a balancing act Reliable service, Economic efficiency,
Balancing customer and investor interests Environmental protection, and Equity/energy access - balancing interests
of the various consumers against interests of present and future generations.
Local, regional, national
Energy Supply in South Africa Aggressive industrial growth (1970’s – 1980’s)
Investment in bulk supply Overshooting in the1990’s
Post 1994 economic aspirations Asian economic crisis impact (1998) Surplus capacity (mothballing and slowing of Majuba
Power Plant). Stalled proposed market reform (2000’s)
Early signs of declining surplus capacity (reserve margin)
Documented work predicting power shortages by 2006-8
Eskom still monopoly
South Africa’s history of IRP NIRP 1 (2002) NIRP II (2003/4)
Post 1994 economic aspirations NIRP III
Not published IRP 1
Published and gazetted 31 Dec 2009 Controversial
IRP 2 Currently underway
NIRP I Uses the basic planning assumptions
of Eskom’s ISEP8 with a few changes: National electricity forecast (not just Eskom’s
share thereof) Costs and performance parameters of non-
Eskom generation Fuel cost changes to some of Eskom’s existing
generation Cost and performance parameters of new
simple cycle gas turbines Uses revised cost and performance parameters for:
PBMR Pumped Storage Plants Simunye (mothballed) plant
NIRP I conclusions and comments Strategies to diversify away from coal as primary
fuel source produce best relative environmental performance but more expensive than the base plan. Not very diversified.
Access to water will become more difficult in future. Legislative changes on emission limits, water
allocation and an effluent levy will impact on costs of future options, cause delays and influence site preferences
Lead times for EIAs impact on the IRP planning process
Environmental costs, as input into the preferred strategy, need to be justified for localised conditions
NIRP I recommendations Whereas the base plan is the least cost
option, it is important to incorporate strategies for fuel and geographic diversity and multiple investment opportunities in the energy market. These strategies will produce better relative environmental performance and have greater potential for regional development.
NIRP I base plan
NIRP II Two-stage process
Stage 1: like NIRP 1, developed base/reference plan
Stage 2: explicit risk modelling to develop reserve margin
Reserve margin:
RM =
1 DSMdemand
capacity
NIRP II preferred plan + renewablesMothballed Coal-Fired FBC Gas Pumped Storage Renewables DSM
YR Cam (PF) Gr'tvlei (PF)
Kom (PF) PF (1) PF (2) PF (3) Green-field FBC
OCGT PS (A) PS (B) PS (C) Conc. Solar
Panels (CSP)
Wind Turbines
CEE IMEE IMLM
REE RLM
Reserve on moderate forecast
Committed Committed Committed 2003 Committed Committed Decide 152 24%2004 Decide Decide Decide Decide 152 21%2005 380 Decide 152 18%2006 380 720 152 17%2007 570 188 20 152 16%2008 190 377 101 Decide 240 300 152 16%2009 565 202 720 152 17%2010 303 Decide 720 152 17%2011 303 240 Decide 152 14%2012 932 333 13%2013 999 13%2014 932 999 15%2015 466 14%2016 1284 14%2017 1284 15%2018 1284 15%2019 13%2020 1284 13%2021 1284 466 999 14%2022 1284 1284 13%TOTAL 1520 1130 909 3852 3852 1284 2796 2640 1332 999 999 300 20 1370
NIRP II - capacity
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UMGENI
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GEORGE
GEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGEGEORGE
VIERFONTEIN
VIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEINVIERFONTEIN
HIGHVELD
HIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELDHIGHVELD
INGAGANE
INGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANEINGAGANE
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HENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINA
HENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINA
HENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINAHENDRINA
ARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOT
ARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOTARNOT
ARNOT
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GARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEP
GARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEP
GARIEP
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GARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEPGARIEP
KRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIEL
KRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIEL
KRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIEL
KRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIEL
KRIELKRIEL
KRIELKRIEL
KRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIELKRIEL
ACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIA
ACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIA
ACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIA
ACACIAACACIA
ACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIA
ACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIA
ACACIAACACIA
ACACIAACACIA
ACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIAACACIA
P REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REX
P REXP REXP REXP REXP REX
P REXP REXP REXP REX
P REXP REX
P REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REX
P REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REX
P REXP REX
P REXP REX
P REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REXP REX
VDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDK
VDKVDKVDKVDKVDK
VDKVDKVDKVDK
VDKVDK
VDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDK
VDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDK
VDKVDK
VDKVDK
VDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDKVDK
MATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLA
MATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLA
MATLAMATLAMATLAMATLA
MATLAMATLA
MATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLA
MATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLA
MATLAMATLA
MATLAMATLA
MATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLAMATLA
DUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVA
DUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVA
DUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVA
DUHVADUHVA
DUHVADUHVA
DUHVADUHVA
DUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVA
DUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVA
DUHVADUHVA
DUHVADUHVA
DUHVADUHVA
DUHVADUHVA
DUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVADUHVA
CAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSA
CAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSA
CAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSA
CAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSA
CAHORA BASSA
CAHORA BASSA
CAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSA
CAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSA
CAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSA
CAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSA
CAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSA
CAHORA BASSA
CAHORA BASSA
CAHORA BASSA
CAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSA
CAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSACAHORA BASSA
DRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERG
DRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERG
DRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERG
DRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERG
DRAKENSBERG
DRAKENSBERG
DRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERG
DRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERG
DRAKENSBERG
DRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERG
DRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERG
DRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERG
DRAKENSBERG
DRAKENSBERG
DRAKENSBERG
DRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERG
DRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERGDRAKENSBERG
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KOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERG
KOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERG
KOEBERGKOEBERG
KOEBERG
KOEBERG
KOEBERGKOEBERG
KOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERG
KOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERG
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KOEBERGKOEBERG
KOEBERG
KOEBERG
KOEBERG
KOEBERGKOEBERG
KOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERGKOEBERG
TUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKA
TUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKA
TUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKA
TUTUKATUTUKA
TUTUKA
TUTUKA
TUTUKATUTUKA
TUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKA
TUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKA
TUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKA
TUTUKATUTUKA
TUTUKA
TUTUKA
TUTUKA
TUTUKATUTUKA
TUTUKATUTUKA
TUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKATUTUKA
LETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABO
LETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABO
LETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABO
LETHABOLETHABO
LETHABO
LETHABO
LETHABOLETHABO
LETHABOLETHABOLETHABO
LETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABO
LETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABO
LETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABO
LETHABOLETHABO
LETHABO
LETHABO
LETHABO
LETHABOLETHABO
LETHABOLETHABO
LETHABO
LETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABOLETHABO
MATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBA
MATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBA
MATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBA
MATIMBAMATIMBA
MATIMBA
MATIMBA
MATIMBAMATIMBA
MATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBA
MATIMBA
MATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBA
MATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBA
MATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBA
MATIMBAMATIMBA
MATIMBA
MATIMBA
MATIMBA
MATIMBAMATIMBA
MATIMBAMATIMBA
MATIMBA
MATIMBA
MATIMBAMATIMBA
MATIMBAMATIMBA
MATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBAMATIMBA
KENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDAL
KENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDAL
KENDALKENDALKENDALKENDAL
KENDALKENDAL
KENDAL
KENDAL
KENDALKENDAL
KENDALKENDALKENDAL
KENDAL
KENDALKENDAL
KENDALKENDAL
KENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDAL
KENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDAL
KENDALKENDAL
KENDAL
KENDAL
KENDAL
KENDALKENDAL
KENDALKENDAL
KENDAL
KENDAL
KENDALKENDAL
KENDALKENDAL
KENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDALKENDAL
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MAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBA
MAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBA
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MAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBA
MAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBA
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MAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBAMAJUBA
Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)
Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)
Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)
Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)
Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)
Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)
Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)
Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)
Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)Camden (RTS)
Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)
Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)
Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)
Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)
Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)
Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)
Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)
Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)
Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)Grootvlei (RTS)OCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGT
OCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGT
OCGTOCGT
OCGTOCGTOCGTOCGT
OCGTOCGT
OCGTOCGTOCGTOCGT
OCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGT
OCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGT
OCGTOCGTOCGTOCGT
OCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGT
OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1
OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1
OCGT 1OCGT 1
OCGT 1OCGT 1
OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1
OCGT 1
OCGT 1OCGT 1
OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1
OCGT 1OCGT 1
OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1
OCGT 1OCGT 1
OCGT 1OCGT 1
OCGT 1OCGT 1
OCGT 1OCGT 1
OCGT 1OCGT 1
OCGT 1
OCGT 1
OCGT 1
OCGT 1OCGT 1
OCGT 1
OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1OCGT 1
Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)
Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)
Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)
Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)
Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)
Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)
Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)
Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)
Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)
Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)Komati (RTS)
OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)
OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)OCGT 2 (IPP)
Baseload (CF)
Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)
Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)
Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)
Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)
Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)
Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)
Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)
Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)
Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)
Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)Baseload (CF)
CCGT
CCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGT
CCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGT
CCGTCCGTCCGTCCGT
CCGTCCGT
CCGTCCGTCCGTCCGT
CCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGT
CCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGT
CCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGT
CCGTCCGTCCGTCCGT
CCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGTCCGT
Pump Storage
Pump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump Storage
Pump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump Storage
Pump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump Storage
Pump StoragePump Storage
Pump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump Storage
Pump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump Storage
Pump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump Storage
Pump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump Storage
Pump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump Storage
Pump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump Storage
Pump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump StoragePump Storage
OCGT
OCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGT
OCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGT
OCGTOCGTOCGTOCGT
OCGTOCGT
OCGTOCGTOCGTOCGT
OCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGT
OCGTOCGTOCGTOCGT
OCGTOCGTOCGTOCGT
OCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGT
OCGTOCGTOCGTOCGT
OCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGTOCGT
NIRP-2 ForecastEskom Historical Ac-tuals
Year
Inst
alle
d Ca
paci
ty (M
W)
Fifty year plant life assumed (except 25 yrs for de-mothballed plant)
Conventional approach to IRP Process
Stakeholder involvement Scenario development
Choosing supply options Resource availability Costs (capex, operational and fuel) Environmental concerns
Demand analysis Appliance costs and cost of efficiency
improvements Cost of no-supply (cost of unserved energy)
Integrated Resource Plan
Scheduling of units Dispatching/scheduling of units
To meet load requirements with the cheapest energy sources
Chronological hourly consumption Random events impacting available units Scheduling
Baseload plants – inflexible thermal plants: Coal plants (as function of coal contract) Nuclear plant
Mid-merit plants – minimal flexibility Pumped storage Combined cycle gas turbine plants
Scheduling of units ... cont. Scheduling ... cont.
Peaking units – maximum flexibility open cycle gas turbines (fully variable costs)
Spinning reserve (thermal units) standby reserve in the event of
load increases or unit failures
Integrated Resource vs Energy Planning IRP is relatively mature, with standardized
analytical tools Integrated Energy Planning (IEP) in infancy
Interlinking of all energy carries Analytical tools becoming more widely available
The IRP 2 processThis is what we know so far
August planning regulations task DoE with developing IRP as sector blue printEskom drafts 20 year IRP 1 in Sep 2009
• DoE , government and cabinet deliberate
• Abbreviated 5 year IRP 1 approved 2Dec 2009
• Inter Ministerial Coordinating Committee on Energy established (DPE chair)
Eskom submits revised MYPD request (35% vs 45%) 30 Nov 09
• Minister Peters commits to full consultation on IRP 2 in early 2010
• DoE gazettes IRP 1 on 30 Dec 09
• Zuma commits to reduce emissions by 34% by 2020
Intergovernmental consultation on assumptions
• Public consultation on assumptions through online portal
Stakeholder workshop to agree on assumptions
• Modeling of scenarios begins
Proposed process for developing IRP 2
What was in the original IRP 1?Originally
A Multi – Criteria Decision Framework
• Ran several scenarios:– 1. Reference Case – 2a. Domestic emissions – 2b. Regional emissions – 2c. Delayed Regional Emissions – 2d. Carbon Tax – 3a. IPP alternates 1 – 3b. IPP alternates 2 – 2. Lowest CO2 – 3. Policy Portfolio – 4. Risk-adjusted emission portfolio – 5. Policy-adjusted IRP
Criteria for Assessment:
Risk factorsDiversity
CostsTechnology
What was in IRP 1?
Risks 0 = No risk (white blocks)1 = Low risk (green blocks)2 = Moderate risk (orange blocks)3 = High risk (red blocks) PS
PF Coal
MTPPP2
Mmamabula
Moamba
OCGT
Wind
Small hydro FBC
DoE OCGT
Nuclear
Mpanda Nkua
CCGT
MSBLP
Kudu CSP
Confidence in cost assumptions 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 2 3 3 3
Confidence in technology 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 2
Confidence in timing 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 1 1 3 1 3 3 2
Confidence in reliability 0 1 2 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Safety concerns 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0
Resource concerns 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 0 1 3 0 0 3 2 2 2
TOTAL 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 10
What made it into IRP 1 Gazetted
Parameter Owner Key OutcomeDiscount rate NT Price coneDemand Forecast DOE Security of supplyEnergy Intensity (Long) DTI Security of supplyEnergy Intensity (Short) DOE Security of supplyEconomic multipliers NPlanning Key OutcomeRate of Exchange NT Price coneInflation NT Price coneGDP NT Price coneCost of energy not served DOE Security of supplyPrice Elasticity NT Price coneDSM DOE Security of supplyEE DOE Security of supplyDMP SO Security of supplyConservation DOE/NERSA Security of supplyGx Mix Parameter DOE Price coneCogeneration DOE Price coneNuclear DOE CarbonFunding / Financing NT Price cone
IRP 2 assumptions
IRP 2 assumptions
Parameter Owner Key OutcomeGx Lifecycle Costs DOE Price coneReserve Margin DOE Security of supplyOwn Generation DOE Price coneImports SAPP Security of supplyPrice cone DOE Key Outcome Renewables DOE CarbonWater DWAF ExternalityIRP 2010 Approach & Methodology Overview DOE GovernanceIRP Consultation Plan DOE GovernanceCarbon & Climate Change DEAT CarbonCarbon taxes DEAT CarbonDistribution DOE ExternalityBase Scenarios DOE/NERSA Key OutcomeGx Location DOE Externality
Electricity planning, policy, politics and democracy
Detailed technical studies / tenders / market mechanisms etc.
Implementation:- Infrastructure development (plants, transmission, etc)
StakeholdersProblemsPreferencesGoals
Scenarios- Detailed technical elaborations of possible aspirations
Policymaking
Traditional - technical and cost barriers – also a necessity!
The main goal of SNAPP and similar tools is to empower a wider group of stakeholders to elaborate policy goals for the electricity sector through scenario development
Why SNAPP is different from traditional planning tools
• For scenario development and exploration – although rigorous, it does not have many of the sophisticated features of professional planning frameworks (e.g. optimisation, accurate dispatch simulation)
• Simple and easy to use, even for people with few technical skills
• Because SNAPP is a spreadsheet, it provides instantaneous feedback on changes to parameters in the system, is transparent, easily and infinitely adaptable – results are replicable, and assumptions are visible
• Free – you can start today
Electricity Supply (generation) Planning Process1. Analyze current/past demand (energy and power/load shape)2. Project demand (energy and power) over the study horizon3. Analyze existing supply system, costs, and technical parameters (e.g.
availability, efficiency, FOR) and retirement schedule4. Analyze future technology options, costs (incl. learning curves) and
technical parameters5. Analyze fuel costs, current and projected over study horizon6. Design supply system over study horizon – looking at costs, within
constraints (reliability standards, resource potential)7. Study and cost demand-side options, for comparison to new generation8. Study alternative scenarios: e.g. policy targets and compare to ref9. Do sensitivity studies on uncertain parameters10. Compile findings 11. Present to Stakeholders and iterate steps 4,5, 7-9
2. Project demand (energy and power) over the study horizon: Elec Demand sheet
Instructions: choose an electricity demand growth forecast in cell C8. You can specify your own forecast in rows 43 to 45. You will still have to choose which forecast you want to use in cell C8. Specify whether to include Solar Water Heaters (which will reduce demand and increase cost), and distributed grid-connected PV in cells D5 and D6. Set the parameters for these two options in rows 52 and 63.The LTMS growth forecast is a baseline forecast (business as usual), whereas the Ind eff forecast is a scenario based on the implementation of an industrial energy efficiency programme
Electricity demand, peak demand, import and export energy and capacityinclude SWH? Ninclude PV? N 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Baseline demand projections downstream of distribution
choose: National Electricity Demand Growth REF (LTMS) 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.5% 2.7% 3.4% 4.5% 4.0%National Electricity Demand (Distribution) GWh 193,180 198,889 200,878 200,878 206,905 214,146 219,928 227,406 237,639 247,065 National average load factor (before demand reduction) 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 National Electricity peak Demand (Distribution) GW 29.42 30.29 30.59 30.59 31.51 32.61 33.49 34.63 36.19 37.62 Demand reductionNational electricity demand (distribution with reduction) GWh 193,180 198,889 200,878 200,878 206,905 214,146 219,928 227,406 237,639 247,065 National peak demand (distribution with reduction) GW 29.42 30.29 30.59 30.59 31.51 32.61 33.49 34.63 36.19 37.62 National average load factor (with demand reduction) 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 0.750 Upstream of distributionNational Average Distribution Losses 12.48% 12.48% 12.48% 12.48% 12.48% 12.48% 12.48% 12.48% 12.48% 12.48%Electricity demand Upstream of distribution GWh 220,720 227,244 229,516 229,516 236,402 244,676 251,282 259,826 271,518 282,287 Electricity peak demand upstream of distribution GW 33.6 34.6 35.0 35.0 36.0 37.3 38.3 39.6 41.3 43.0 Upstream of transmissionNational Average Transmission Losses 3.80% 3.80% 3.80% 3.80% 3.80% 3.80% 3.80% 3.80% 3.80% 3.80%Electricity demand Upstream of Transmission excl. exports, PS input GWh 229,450 229,450 236,232 238,594 238,594 245,752 254,353 261,221 270,102 282,257 293,452 Electricity peak demand upstream of transmission excl. exports, PS inputGW 34.9 36.0 36.3 36.3 ImportsImported electricity GWh 10,624 10,624 10,624 10,624 10,624 10,624 10,624 10,624 10,624 10,624 10,624 Import capacity GW 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5ExportsExported electricity GWh 14,126 14,126 14,126 14,126 14,126 14,126 14,126 14,126 14,126 14,126 14,126
Peak Demand on generation systemEnergy dispatched upstream of transmission (excl. PS input) GWh 243,576 250,358 252,720 252,720 259,878 268,479 275,347 284,228 296,383 307,578 Peak Demand on national system incl exports 35.10 36.44 37.47 37.81 37.81 38.88 40.17 41.20 42.52 44.34 46.02Load Factor (demand) 76.3% 76.3% 76.3% 76.3% 76.3% 76.3% 76.3% 76.3% 76.3% 76.3%Eskom forecast of peak on their system 33.461 34.807 36.513 36.139 35.91 37.698 39.015 40.062 41.441 43.294Eskom forecast of peak demand growth 4.0% 4.9% -1.0% -0.6% 5.0% 3.5% 2.7% 3.4% 4.5%Peak demand growth Check 3.8% 2.8% 0.9% 0.0% 2.8% 3.3% 2.6% 3.2% 4.3%
Main menu Levelised Costs Investment Plan System Costs Emissions etc
4. Analyze future technology options, costs (incl. learning curves) and technical parameters: Tech Parameters sheet
Levelised cost for individual plants:Instructions: change setting in column B to Y or N to show the levellised cost of specific technologiesTo look at a breakdown of levellised costs for a specific technology, choose the technology in cell M2
Technology Show? (Y/N)Existing coal Large NExisting coal Small NOCGT liquid fuels NPWR nuclear YHydro NLandfill gas NBiomass NSupercritical coal YWind 30% YWind 25% Ysolar thermal central reciever Ysolar thermal trough Ysolar PV Ncombined cycle gas YPBMR NIGCC Y- N- N- NPumped storage N
taxcarbon finance
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7. Study alternative scenarios: e.g. policy targets and compare to ref: Cost graphs and Environmental Impacts sheets
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Moving Forward • DoE to brief the Energy Caucus on the IRP 2 process
• Online resources to share informationhttp://irp2.wordpress.com
• Second round of workshops when DoE releases its scenarios
• Independent research and information on the proposed assumptions
• Note: Leaked Sep 09 DRAFT IRP 1 available at http://www.mg.co.za/article/2010-01-08-eskoms-secret-tariff-plan-revealed