the natural step, natural capitalism & conscious

The Natural Step,Natural Capitalism & Conscious Capitalism in the XXIst century

Applying old tools

to entirely new circumstances

1

Terry Thiele4 December 2014Corporate Roundtable

pro·voc·a·tive

prəˈväkədiv/ adjective

1.causing annoyance, anger, or

another strong reaction, especially

deliberately. "a provocative article“

synonyms: annoying, irritating, exasperating,

infuriating, maddening, vexing, galling

2

3

cur·mudg·eon

kərˈməjən/ noun

a bad-tempered or surly person.

THESIS:

Sustainability thinking

in the XXth Century

will have to be “rethought”

for the XXIst Century.

4

EVIDENCE: emergence ofTNS, Natural / Conscious Capitalism

Capitalism & the Industrial Revolution

5

Adam Smith and Life-cycle Assessment

The Industrial Revolution!

Individually made MASS PRODUCED

6

MASS PRODUCED

GOODS

Capital


1st Industrial Revolution - early

Energy: open-flame boilers/coal/steam

Transportation: horses

Communication: telegraph

Mass production numerous industries

Round trip by horse


1st Industrial Revolution - mature

Energy: open-flame boilers/coal/steam

Transportation: horses/railroads

Communication: telegraph

Towns spread out - industries consolidate

Water refill for steam locomotive


2nd Industrial Revolution

Energy: internal combustion engine/oil/electricity

Transportation: automobiles/trucks/airplanes

Communication: telephone/television

Urbanization

Global concentration


Mass Production and the Environment

10

Huge increase in environmental degradation

http://www.newscientist.com/articleimages/dn14950/1-special-report-the-facts-about-overconsumption.html

“In 1882, A.W. Brayton wrote, ‘The Virginia Deer is rarely met with in Ohio at present, except as domesticated in parts.’

“By 1904, White-tailed Deer were extirpated from Ohio….”

http://www.ohiohistorycentral.org/w/White-tailed_Deer?rec=1117

http://www.newscientist.com/articleimages/dn14950/1-special-report-the-facts-about-overconsumption.html

http://www.ohiohistorycentral.org/w/White-tailed_Deer?rec=1117

Adam Smith & the 1st & 2nd Industrial Revolutions

Mass Production and Life-Cycle Assessment

11

Environmental profile for mass produced goods

John Maynard Keynes & the 1st & 2nd Industrial Revolutions

Mass Production and Eco-EfficiencyHecksher-Ohlin-Samuelson 2 sector model of general equilibrium

• Comparative Advantage

• Opportunity Cost

• Specialization

• Economies of Scale

• Barriers to Entry

• Inventory / Just-in-Time

12

Economic profile for mass produced goods

The 3rd Industrial Revolution

13


Mass Production and THE FUTURE Energy:

14

Stage setting: role played by energy in the progress of civilization

Paleolithic

15

200,000 BC 12,000 BC

2014

ENERGY SOURCE CONVERSION USE

Vegetation, meat Muscle Hunting, gathering,

Wood Fire Warmth, light, food prep, defense

7,000 BC12-10,000 BC

2014Mesolithic

7,000 BC

Mesolithic

16

12-10,000 BC


Vegetation, meat Muscle Hunting, gathering


Vegetation, meat Animals(6 x Muscle)

Hunting, gathering, farming, building, transportation

2014

HTTP://WWW.ABE.UFL.EDU/ACADEMICS/COURSE-LISTINGS/AOM-UNDERGRADUATE/AOM2520.SHTMLGLOBAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE. Dr. Wendell A. Porter, P.E. Univ of Florida

Ox ≈ 4 laborers better harness ≈ 6 laborers

THE FUTURE & Energy

17

http://www.abe.ufl.edu/academics/course-listings/AOM-undergraduate/AOM2520.shtml

7,000 BC

Mesolithic

18

10-5,000 BC

Neolithic 2014






Wind Sail transportation

grain, meat Organized labor(1000s x Muscle)

“monument building”

Early windmill ≈ 14-140 laborers

THE FUTURE & Energy

19HTTP://WWW.ABE.UFL.EDU/ACADEMICS/COURSE-LISTINGS/AOM-UNDERGRADUATE/AOM2520.SHTMLGLOBAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE. Dr. Wendell A. Porter, P.E. Univ of Florida


5,000 BC

Mesolithic

20

Neolithic 2014

“RecordedHistory”

5,000 BC 2014300 AD

“Modern Era”“Classical Era”

5,000 BC 2014

“Classical Era”

300 AD

“Modern Era”







grain, meatOrganized labor

(1000s x muscle)“monument building”

grain, meat Slave labor(10,000s x muscle)

“Empire building”

21

5,000 BC

“Classical Era” “Modern Era”

2014300 AD

300 AD 2014

“Pre-Industrial” “Industrial Revolution”

1750

22

300 AD 2014


1750




Vegetation, meatAnimals

(6 x Muscle)



grain, meatOrganized labor(1000s x muscle)

“city building”

grain, meatSlave labor

(10,000s x muscle)“Empire building”

Water Watermills Food prep, fiber prep

Wind Windmills Food prep, fiber prep

Coal Open Fire Warmth, light, food prep23


300 AD 20141750

1750 2014“Industrial Revolution”

24

1750 2014“Industrial Revolution”

SOURCE CONVERSION USE %

Oil

ElectricalMechanical

TransportationAgriculture

ManufacturingFood preparationClimate control

IlluminationWarfare

Entertainment

37%

Gas 28%

Coal 20%

Renewables 9%

Nuclear 8%

25

1785 Watt/Bolton steam engine ≈ 333 laborers

THE FUTURE & Energy



1901 35 HP Mercedes ≈ 280 laborers (1 HP ≈ 8 laborers)

THE FUTURE & Energy



118 HP ≈ 1,144 laborers (MINI COOPER S)

≈

THE FUTURE & Energy



US individual energy consumption:

18.3 mil barrels 42 gal

360 mil people

136,567 BTU/gal 2.43 ≈ 331,857 BTU/person/day

0.0002931 ≈ 97.3 kW ≈ 1,300 laborers/person/day

468 billion laborers…

THE FUTURE & Energy

29

≈ 2.43 gal/person/day

HTTP://WWW.ABE.UFL.EDU/ACADEMICS/COURSE-LISTINGS/AOM-UNDERGRADUATE/AOM2520.SHTMLGLOBAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE. Dr. Wendell A. Porter, P.E. Univ of Florida


200,000 BC 2014

“Industrial Revolution”Paleolithic

HTTP://WWW.FI.EDU/LEARN/CASE-FILES/ENERGY.HTML 3030 HISTORY OF ENERGY James C. Williams, Ph.D. April 25, 2006

“Energy plays a fundamental role in shaping the human condition.

“Indeed, it has been argued that energy is the key "to the advance of civilization," that the evolution of human societies is dependent on the conversion of energy for human use.

“Few people have questioned the long-held assumption that standard of living and quality of civilization are proportional to the quantity of energy a society uses.

“However imprecise it may be, most people still accept the

steadfast formula: energy=progress=civilization.”

30

http://www.fi.edu/learn/case-files/energy.html

http://www.deanza.fhda.edu/faculty/williams/

http://www.gapminder.org/videos/200-years-that-changed-the-world-bbc/

http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/current/lectures/human_pop/human_pop.html

THE FUTURE & Energy

31

http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/current/lectures/human_pop/human_pop.html

www.ourfiniteworld.com

THE FUTURE & Energy

32

http://www.ourfiniteworld.com/

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21578643-world-has-astonishing-chance-take-billion-people-out-extreme-poverty-2030-not

THE FUTURE & Energy

33

“The world has an

astonishing chance to

take a billion people

out of extreme poverty

by 2030.” June 2013

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21578643-world-has-astonishing-chance-take-billion-people-out-extreme-poverty-2030-not

THE FUTURE & Energy

34

“The advanced projects team at Lockheed, known as Skunk Works, has unveiled a plan to develop a compact,

magnetic fusion device in less than a decade.”

http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html

THE FUTURE & Energy

35

CHEAP OFF-GRID GLOBAL ENERGY

Nuclear

RenewablesFuel Cells

Nonrenewables


Mass Production and THE FUTURE Energy: CHEAP OFF-GRID ENERGY

Communication: IoT KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

36

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNJl9EEcsoE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNJl9EEcsoE

THE FUTURE & the “Internet of Things”

37http://elearningroadtrip.typepad.com/elearning_roadtrip/2009/02/mobile-learning-at-last.html

http://elearningroadtrip.typepad.com/elearning_roadtrip/2009/02/mobile-learning-at-last.html


38

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=USMbclNQ1NjM2M&tbnid=MbuXQmOU8d01sM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.kurzweilai.net/ibm-open-sources-internet-of-things-protocol&ei=UqsYUsbqJc7k4APkhIHYCw&bvm=bv.51156542,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNG5TWccGB6RMSiotlfSXL7j06VqtQ&ust=1377434789731874

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=USMbclNQ1NjM2M&tbnid=MbuXQmOU8d01sM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.kurzweilai.net/ibm-open-sources-internet-of-things-protocol&ei=UqsYUsbqJc7k4APkhIHYCw&bvm=bv.51156542,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNG5TWccGB6RMSiotlfSXL7j06VqtQ&ust=1377434789731874


39




Manufacturing: 3D PRINTING

40

http://www.withinlab.com

Removing material

OUTSIDE IN

Adding material

INSIDE OUT

41

It can print everyday articles…

42

It can print something really big…

43

http://www.tomshardware.co.uk/slideshow/0contourcrafting,0101-347620-0-2-3-0-jpg-.html

http://www.tomshardware.co.uk/slideshow/0contourcrafting,0101-347620-0-2-3-0-jpg-.html

http://www.gizmag.com/d-shape-3d-printer/21594/pictures

http://www.gizmag.com/d-shape-3d-printer/21594/pictures

It can print something really small…

44

It can print something incredibly sophisticated…

45

[ kidney being printed ]

http://cfnewsads.thomasnet.com/images/large/843/843325.jpg

http://cfnewsads.thomasnet.com/images/large/843/843325.jpg

It can print jet engine turbine blades…

46

GE produces jet engine turbine blades with 3D printing … saves ≈ $25,000 per engine. The Motley Fool 10/12/12

It can print something at the store around the corner…

47

“Staples Easy 3D”… upload designs to website… pick up printed objects at local store. Wired.com 11/29/12

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=staples+3d+printing&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=4stTfeToSTcdaM&tbnid=ZVnHru3OLyFhGM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.treehugger.com/gadgets/staples-introduce-store-3d-printing.html&ei=jfY4UZvPNKbF2QX7pIHgAw&bvm=bv.43287494,d.aWc&psig=AFQjCNG7gQhOejWbKX7jzV7Dizg8jGgAfw&ust=1362774003393966

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=staples+3d+printing&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=4stTfeToSTcdaM&tbnid=ZVnHru3OLyFhGM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.treehugger.com/gadgets/staples-introduce-store-3d-printing.html&ei=jfY4UZvPNKbF2QX7pIHgAw&bvm=bv.43287494,d.aWc&psig=AFQjCNG7gQhOejWbKX7jzV7Dizg8jGgAfw&ust=1362774003393966

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=3d+printing+store&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=OfIV6pQmXsjn9M&tbnid=1Mx26XMaO07rcM:&ved=&url=http://www.itclips.net/2012/12/05/3dea-3d-printing-pop-up-store-opens-in-nyc/&ei=yYBsUfCTG4rx0wHKtYGQDw&bvm=bv.45175338,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNEB2Hpr2RWqrKMqwOqFcESqp_VS_g&ust=1366151753914750

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=3d+printing+store&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=OfIV6pQmXsjn9M&tbnid=1Mx26XMaO07rcM:&ved=&url=http://www.itclips.net/2012/12/05/3dea-3d-printing-pop-up-store-opens-in-nyc/&ei=yYBsUfCTG4rx0wHKtYGQDw&bvm=bv.45175338,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNEB2Hpr2RWqrKMqwOqFcESqp_VS_g&ust=1366151753914750

It can print something on your kitchen table…

48

It can print something impossible…

49

Shell Tech Centre (Amsterdam)

(internal cooling channels / structures)

“impossible to make with existing machining techniques.” 3ders.org 9/18/12





Scaling: NANOTECH

51

52

THE FUTURE & NanoTECHNOLOGY

http://www.nanowerk.com/nanotechnology-applications.php

53http://www.nanowerk.com/nanotechnology-applications.php


54http://www.futuretimeline.net/subject/nanotechnology.htm


http://www.futuretimeline.net/subject/nanotechnology.htm





Scaling: NANOTECH

Automation: ROBOTICS

55

56

THE FUTURE & Automation





Scaling: NANOTECH


New Materials: ???

57http://engineering.unt.edu/materials/research

http://engineering.unt.edu/materials/research

58

THE FUTURE & New Materials

http://www.fastcompany.com/biomimicry/the-booming-business-of-biomimicry

http://www.fastcompany.com/biomimicry/the-booming-business-of-biomimicry

59


9 Materials That Will Change the Future of

Manufacturing

Researchers are developing cutting-edge foams,

coatings, metals and other substances to make our

homes, vehicles and gadgets more energy efficient

and environmentally friendly

60






Scaling: NANOTECH


New Materials: ???

61

What does this all mean?

Karl-Henrik Robert, Amory Lovins, Raj Sisodia

& the 3rd Industrial Revolution

Sustainability and THE FUTURE

62

The Natural Step

Natural Capitalism

Conscious Capitalism

Karl-Henrik Robert & the 3rd Industrial Revolution

63

• Non profit

• Science based model to integrate environmental, social, and economic considerations into business decisionmaking.

• Founded in 1989 by Dr. Karl-Henrik Robèrt in Sweden.

• Offices in 11 countries and a list of partners that includes some of the world’s leading brands.

http://www.thenaturalstep.org/en

The Natural Step (TNS)

http://www.thenaturalstep.org/en

64


TNS Rationale

65

TNS and Life-Cycle Assessment

#1. Substances

from the earth’s crust

must not systematically increase in the

biosphere.

#2. Substances produced by society must not

systematically increase in the biosphere.

#3. Natural functions and diversity must not be systematically

impoverished by displacement, overharvesting or other manipulation.

#4. Resources must be used fairly and efficiently

to meet basic human needs globally.


TNS establishes LCA interpretation objectives.

Amory Lovins (and Paul Hawken)


Natural Capitalism The Circular Economy

66

Natural Capitalism

• Future economic development needs “natural capital” (“macro” life-supporting services that currently have no “micro” market value).

• Badly designed business systems + population growth + wasteful consumption increasing loss of natural capital.

• Need market-based system where human, manufactured, financial, and natural capital are fully valued.

• Economic/environmental sustainability depends on redressing global inequities of income and material well-being.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_Capitalism

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_Capitalism

Amory Lovins (and Paul Hawken)


Natural Capitalism expands traditional H-O-S definition of capital (money/goods) to include NATURAL and HUMAN capital

67

Natural Capitalism and Eco-Efficiency

Social JusticeMASS

PRODUCED GOODS

Human Capital

Capital

NaturalCapital

Environmental Circular

Economy

Raj Sisodia (and John Mackey)


Conscious Capitalism expands the objective of Capitalism beyond merely delivering a return on shareholder capital investment.

68


Raj Sisodia (and John Mackey)


Conscious Capitalism expands objective of Capitalism beyond merely delivering a return on shareholder capital investment.

69

Conscious Capitalism and Eco-Efficiency

70

Benefit Corporations and CERTIFIED Benefit Corporations

The Natural

Step

Natural Capitalism


Benefit Corporations

Certified Benefit Corporations




What is going on here? Why now?

71

Sustainability, the 3rd Industrial Revolution and the Kuznets Curve

72

“The view that greater economic activity inevitably hurts the environment is based on static

assumptions about technology, tastes and environmental investments …” [emphasis added]

“… as incomes rise, the demand for improvements in environmental quality will increase, as will the

resources available for investment.”

73

Dasgupta, Susmita, Benoit Laplante, Hua Wang, and David Wheeler. 2002. "Confronting the Environmental Kuznets Curve." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 16(1): 147-168.


74

You are HERE!


Hans Rosling and the Kuznets Curve

75

http://www.gapminder.org/world/#$majorMode=chart$is;shi=t;ly=2003;lb=f;il=t;fs=11;al=30;stl=t;st=t;nsl=t;se=t$wst;tts=C$ts;sp=5.59290322580644;ti=1800$zpv;v=0$inc_x;mmid=XCOORDS;iid=phAwcNAVuyj1jiMAkmq1iMg;by=ind$inc_y;mmid=YCOORDS;iid=phAwcNAVuyj2tPLxKvvnNPA;by=ind$inc_s;uniValue=8.21;iid=phAwcNAVuyj0XOoBL_n5tAQ;by=ind$inc_c;uniValue=255;gid=CATID0;by=grp$map_x;scale=log;dataMin=194;dataMax=96846$map_y;scale=lin;dataMin=23;dataMax=86$map_s;sma=49;smi=2.65$cd;bd=0$inds=;modified=75

http://www.gapminder.org/world/#$majorMode=chart$is;shi=t;ly=2003;lb=f;il=t;fs=11;al=30;stl=t;st=t;nsl=t;se=t$wst;tts=C$ts;sp=5.59290322580644;ti=1800$zpv;v=0$inc_x;mmid=XCOORDS;iid=phAwcNAVuyj1jiMAkmq1iMg;by=ind$inc_y;mmid=YCOORDS;iid=phAwcNAVuyj2tPLxKvvnNPA;by=ind$inc_s;uniValue=8.21;iid=phAwcNAVuyj0XOoBL_n5tAQ;by=ind$inc_c;uniValue=255;gid=CATID0;by=grp$map_x;scale=log;dataMin=194;dataMax=96846$map_y;scale=lin;dataMin=23;dataMax=86$map_s;sma=49;smi=2.65$cd;bd=0$inds=;modified=75



Sustainability and THE FUTUREWhat is going on here?

76http://www.impactlab.net/2013/06/05/how-did-the-work-life-balance-get-so-awful-in-america/

http://www.impactlab.net/2013/06/05/how-did-the-work-life-balance-get-so-awful-in-america/


77http://www.impactlab.net/2013/06/05/how-did-the-work-life-balance-get-so-awful-in-america/



http://www.impactlab.net/2013/06/05/how-did-the-work-life-balance-get-so-awful-in-america/


78http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/comment/iancowie/6274049/Would-you-put-your-pension-on-a-politicians-promise.html



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/comment/iancowie/6274049/Would-you-put-your-pension-on-a-politicians-promise.html

Viktor Frankl & the 3rd Industrial Revolution


What WILL you do

WITH YOURSELF

When you aren’t

working

to put food

on the table?

79


80

Viktor Frankl & the 3rd Industrial Revolution

Sustainability & the 3rd Industrial Revolution

81





Scaling: NANOTECH


New Materials: ???

82

What does this all mean?





Scaling: NANOTECH


New Materials: ???

83

We really are facing a “meta” revolution

Mass Production to Mass Customization

Individually made MASS PRODUCED Individually made

84

Adam Smith & the 3rd Industrial Revolution

Capital

85https://hbr.org/2014/12/is-the-era-of-mass-manufacturing-coming-to-an-end

“Manufacturers should start by assessing the vulnerability of their output to substitution by the home craftsman. Analyzing the nature of the items that were made in large enterprises before the Industrial Revolution will suggest what types of product line are most defensible. Relevant independent variables might include bulk, product complexity, the ability to personalize design or features, and the potential for display. Strategies for the most vulnerable products might need a complete rethink.”

http://video.foxnews.com/v/3917901881001/maker-movement-on-the-forefront-of-creating-latest-tech/#sp=show-clips

http://video.foxnews.com/v/3917901881001/maker-movement-on-the-forefront-of-creating-latest-tech/#sp=show-clips

https://hbr.org/2014/12/is-the-era-of-mass-manufacturing-coming-to-an-end

86

Sustainability & the Maker Movement

The exact definition of “makers” is a bit imprecise, but you can think of them as the web generation creating physical things rather than just pixels on screens. To use the terminology of the MIT Media Lab, they’re treating atoms like bits—using the powerful tools of the software and information industries to revolutionize the way we make tangible objects.There are three underlying forces at work in this transformation of tinkering. 1. The first is the emergence of digital tools for design and

manufacturing…2. The second factor is the digital means of collaboration… 3. The third element is the rise of the factory for hire…

Adam Smith & the 3rd Industrial Revolution

Mass Customization and Life-Cycle Assessment

87

Environmental profiles for custom made-to-order goods???

John Maynard Keynes & the 3rd Industrial Revolution

Mass Customization and Eco-Efficiency

Hecksher-Ohlin-Samuelson 2 sector

model of general equilibrium

• Comparative Advantage GONE

• Opportunity Cost GONE

• Specialization GONE

• Economies of Scale GONE

• Barriers to Entry GONE

• Inventory / Just-in-Time GONE

88

Economic profiles for custom made-to-order goods???

Mass Customization IS THE FUTURE

89

Sustainability tools will have to be re-engineered


The Natural Step

Natural Capitalism



90

Getting to the Circular Economy is going to be exciting!


CUSTOM ITEM

Human Capital

???Capital

???

NaturalCapital

???New Materials

???

3D Printing

???

Energy ???

IoT???

Nanotech ???

Robotics ???


91

The rate of change is accelerating!


Human Capitol

?

92

What the 3rd Industrial Revolution might look like

PUBLISHED IN 1995…

93

Thank you.

the natural step, natural capitalism & conscious

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