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TRANSCRIPT
7/11/2013
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2013 OAPA Planning Conference
The Oregon Resilience Plan
Kent Yu, PhD, Chair
Jay Wilson, Vice Chair
Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory CommissionMay 31, 2013
Portland, Oregon
Cascadia Subduction Earthquake
Can we learn from other similar events or do we have to learn the hard way?
Magnitude 9.0 Paradigm Shift
Strong Ground Shaking (M9 w/ 2 ‐ 4 min shaking)
Tsunami within 15 to 25 minutes
Cascadia Subduction Earthquake
The Oregon Resilience Plan50‐year Comprehensive Plan
Save Lives
Protect our Economy
Preserve our Communities
169 Expert Volunteers
$ Millions in donation of professional services
One‐year Schedule
Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission
Kent Yu – Chair, Structural Engineer, Degenkolb Engineers
Jay Wilson – Vice Chair, Public Member, Clackmas County Emergency Management
Deborah Boone – Representative, Legislative Assembly
Greg Ek‐Collins – Oregon Department of Transportation
Carl Farrington – Multifamily House Stakeholder
Fred Girod – Senator, Legislative Assembly
David Holton/Francisco Ianni – American Red Cross
Iann Madin – Chief Scientist, Department of Geology and Mineral Industries
Mike Mumaw – Local Government Stake Holder, City of Beaverton
Jay Raskin – Public Member, Ecola Architects
Althea Rizzo – Oregon Emergency Management (OEM)
Richard Rogers – Building Codes Division
Steve Lucker – Department of Land Conservation and Development
Susan Steward – Building Owners Stakeholder, BOMA
Mark Tyler – Schools Stakeholder
Bryce Ward – Banking Stakeholder, ECONorthwest
Stan Watters – Utilities Stakeholder, Port of Portland
Gerry Williams – Public Member, C&EMR
Bev Hall – OSSPAC Secretary, OEM
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Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquakes
Mw ~9500 yrs
Mw 8.5‐8.8430 yrs
Mw 8.5‐8.3320 yrs
Mw 7.6‐8.4240 yrs
(Modified from Goldfinger et al. (in press) by adding magnitude estimates and some labels)
Recurrence
Cascadia Earthquake Hazards and Risk Cascadia Earthquake Hazards and Risk
March 25,1993 Scotts Mills Spring Break Earthquake
March 25,1993 Scotts Mills Spring Break Earthquake
Oregon Education & Emergency Facilities
Oregon Tsunami Exposure
(Source: Nate Wood/2007, USGS)
House Resolution 3
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House Resolution 3
Directs Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission (OSSPAC) to “lead and coordinate preparation of an Oregon Resilience Plan that . . . makes recommendations on policy direction to protect lives and keep commerce flowing during and after a Cascadia (megathrust) earthquake and tsunami.”
Focuses on physical infrastructure
Key Endorsement
From White House From Governor of Oregon
Definition of Resilience
Resilience: Save lives, Reduce Losses, Speed Recovery, & Rebuild Better
Sustainability without Resilience is NOT sustainable!
Organizational Structure
OSSPAC
Advisory PanelOSSPAC Steering
Committee
Eight Task Groups
Critical/Essential Buildings
Energy
Information and Communications
Transportation
Water and Waste Water
Eight Task Groups
Magnitude 9.0 Earthquake/Tsunami Scenario
Business and Work Force Continuity
Coastal Communities
Team Building ‐ Advisory Panel
Prof. Scott Ashford (Oregon State Univ.)
Sen. Lee Beyer (Legislature)
Sen. Peter Courtney (Legislature)
Ed Dennis (formerly Dept. of Education)
JR Gonzalez (formerly Oregon PUC)
Prof. Chris Goldfinger (Oregon State Univ.)
Dave Harlan (Business Oregon/Ports)
Onno Husing (formerly OCZMA)
Bruce Johnson (ODOT)
Dr. Leon Kempner, Jr. (BPA)
Prof. Andre LeDuc (Univ. of Oregon)
Dr. Vicki McConnell (DOGAMI/WSSPC)
Jean O‘Connor (Oregon Health Authority)
Cameron Smith (Governor’s office)
Jeff Soulages (Intel)
Yumei Wang (DOGAMI/NEHRP)
Edward Wolf (Oregon citizen)
Dr. Nate Wood (USGS)
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Team Building ‐ Eight Task Groups Earthquake and Tsunami Scenario: Ian Madin (DOGAMI, OSSPAC)
Business/Work Force Continuity: Susan Steward (BOMA, OSSPAC) & Gerry Williams (OSSPAC)
Coastal Communities: Jay Wilson (vice Chair, OSSPAC) & Jay Raskin (OSSPAC)
Critical/Essential Buildings: Ed Quesenberry (SEAO) & Trent Nagele (SEAO)
Transportation: Bruce Johnson (ODOT)
Energy: JR Gonzalez (formerly OPUC) & Stan Watters (Port of Portland, OSSPAC)
Information and Communications: Mike Mumaw (OSSPAC)
Water and Wastewater: Mike Stuhr (City of Portland PWB) & Mark Knudson (TVWD)
Broad Participation Governor’s office (1) Indian Tribe: Coquille Tribe (3) Ports: Port of Portland, Port of Astoria, Port of Coos Bay (4) Federal Agencies: BPA, USGS, US Army Corps, USCG (4) State Legislators: Beyer, Boone, Courtney, Kruse (5) Universities (UO, OSU, PSU, UP, UTA) (6) Private utilities providers (10+) Local Government (Astoria to Brookings, Pendleton to
Cannon Beach) (11) Public utilities providers (11) State Agencies/(2)Commissions/(2)Boards Earthquake professionals: SEAO, ASCE, EERI, CREW Oregon businesses: High tech, healthcare, insurance, food retail,
construction… Professional associations, NGOs, citizens,…
Earthquake/Tsunami Group
Led by Ian Madin (OSSPAC/DOGAMI)
Magnitude 9.0 Earthquake/Tsunami Scenario Group will develop:
1) Ground shaking intensity maps
2) Tsunami Inundation maps
3) Landslide and liquefaction maps
Business/Community Continuity Group
Led by Susan Stewart (OSSPAC/BOMA) and Gerry Williams (OSSPAC)
Goals:
Raise Earthquake/Tsunami Awareness
Gauge Earthquake/Tsunami Preparedness
Gather input/ideas from Business for other workgroups to define resilience targets and improve resilience plan
Coastal Community Resilience Group
Led by Jay Wilson/Jay Raskin (OSSPAC)
Tsunami Risk Mitigation Group will address the following:
Tsunami evacuation
Zoning and Land use policy
Critical facilities
Re‐building community
Debris management
Critical Building Group
Led by Ed Quesenberry and Trent Nagele (SEAO) The Critical Building Task Group will address the buildings listed
below:
Emergency Operations Centers
Healthcare facilities (Hospitals and MOBs)
Police and Fire Stations
Critical government administration/services facilities
Emergency sheltering facilities
Education facilities (K‐12, College and University);
Community retail centers
Financial/banking Buildings
Residential Housing
Killer buildings (URM and non‐ductile RC buildings)
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Energy Group
Led by Stan Watters (OSSPAC/Port of Portland) and
JR Gonzalez (formerly OPUC)
The Energy Task Group will address the systems listed below:
Electricity
Natural Gas
Liquid Fuel
Dams
Transportation Group
Led by Bruce Johnson (ODOT)
The Transportation Task Group will address the systems listed below:
Bridges (owned by ODOT, Counties or Cities)
Airports and Seaports
Railroads
Mass Transit (Trimet)
Columbia River
Information and Communications Group
Led by Mike Mumaw (OSSPAC/Beaverton)
The Information and Communications Task Group will address the systems listed below:
Communication Network and Database
Telecommunication Infrastructure
Water and Waste Water Group Led by Mike Stuhr (PWB) and Mark Knudson (TVWD)
The Water and Wastewater Task Group will address the systems listed below:
Water storage, transmission, and distribution systems (including Dams)
Wastewater collection systems and treatment plants
Lifeline Sector Interdependence
Identify common denominators
Liquid Fuel, Transportation
Electricity, W&WW, Telecom
Challenges and Obstacles
Lack of participation/engagement
Lack of inspectors for buildings and bridges
Four Zones
/I‐5 corridor
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Regional Dependence(Lifeline Routes)
Oregon Resilience Planning Steps
Assess performance of existing critical facilities and lifeline systems, and estimate timeframes required to restore functions at present conditions;
Develop resilience goals based on business and community needs for each zone;
Define acceptable target timeframes to restore functions to meet resilience goals; and
Prepare recommendations for statewide policies and actions to achieve the desired performance targets.
Key Findings
• Oregon is far from resilient to the impact of a great Cascadia earthquake today
• Casualties (a few thousand to more than 10,000)
• Economic Loss (at least 20% state GDP)
• More than one million truck loads of debris
• Liquid Fuel vulnerability
• Business can only tolerate two to four weeks of disruption of essential services
Current Resilience Gap
What do the findings mean?
Complex Inter‐dependencies
Damage vs. Impacts Costs ‐ Replace & Rehabilitate Capacity ‐ Loss of Service Value ‐ Society & Economy
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Multi-Family Housing &
Tsunami Vertical Evacuation Building
Department
Store
Police HQ
High Ground
Hospital
Residential
Neighborhood
Residential
Neighborhood
EOC
Slow and Frustrating Recovery
• Establish a State Resilience Office to provide leadership, resources, advocacy, and expertise in implementing statewide resilience plans
• Undertake comprehensive seismic assessments of the key structures and systems that underpin Oregon’s economy;
Overarching Recommendations
• Launch a sustained program of capital improvement in Oregon’s public structures;
• Craft a package of incentives to engage Oregon’s private sector to advance seismic resilience;
• Update Oregon’s public policies
Overarching Recommendations
• Propose to work with Oregon’s Legislative Assembly to keep the 50‐year goal in view
• Community‐level Planning
• Joint regional planning with Washington State
• Human Resilience
• Civic infrastructure
Looking Ahead
Status Summary Project Kickoff workshop on 1/26/2012 (312th Anniversary)
Task Group Leader workshop in October 2012
Completed draft report in January 2013
Oregonian published our draft report on 2/4/2013
Delivered the resilience report to OR state legislature on 2/28/2013
Press Conference on 3/11/2013 (2nd Anniversary of Tohoku EQ)
Presented the resilience plan to joint senate and house committees on 3/14/2013
Presentation the resilience plan to House Committee on Transportation and Economic Development on 5/13/2013
Three additional hearings in June 2013
SB33 Amendment ‐‐ Task Force for Implementation of ORP
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Media Attention
A Few Links for Further Readinghttp://www.constructioninst.org/CEMagazine/ArticleNs.aspx?id=23622324492
2. Oregon Resilience Plan executive summary (PDF):http://www.oregon.gov/OMD/OEM/osspac/docs/Oregon_Resilience_Plan_Executive_Summary_Final.pdf
3. Oregon Resilience Plan full report, by chapter:http://www.oregon.gov/omd/oem/pages/osspac/osspac.aspx#Oregon_Resilience_Plan
4. Coverage in The Oregonian (Feb. 4, 2013):http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2013/02/cascadia_earthquake_and_tsunam.html#incart_m‐rpt‐2
5. Coverage in The Seattle Times (March 9, 2013):http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2020525702_earthquakerecoveryxml.html
6. Materials submitted for 3/14 hearing:https://olis.leg.state.or.us/liz/2013R1/Committees/SVEP/2013‐03‐14‐13‐00/MeetingMaterials
7. Coverage in MSN/NBC News (March 18, 2013):http://science.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/18/17358702‐10000‐could‐die‐in‐northwest‐quake‐chilling‐report‐says?lite&lite=obnetwork
8. Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission: http://www.oregon.gov/omd/oem/pages/osspac/osspac.aspx
1. ASCE Civil Engineering Magazine coverage:
Thank You
Approaches to Recovery Tohoku, Japan
Minamisanriku
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Two Levels of Tsunami Protection: 100 yr (seawalls) and 1000 yr (elevation)
Natori City – Yuriage District Demonstration Site Elevated Residential Area
MinamisanrikuRecovery Vision
Kesennuma – EQ Subsidence Causing Daily Flooding at High Tide
KesennumaRaising Land
Signs of Hope
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Additional Slides for Q&A
Operational Airports After EQ‐Tsunami – Valley
Columbia River Ports
Port of Portland Facilities
Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake (Magnitude 9.0)
6 complete collapses
64 extensive
106 major
164 slight
Estimates Loss:
$1,080 million for bridge repair and replacement
Significant Economic losses (travel time related losses)
RouteDamage States
Slight Moderate Extensive Complete
I-5 (MWC) 4 1 0 0
I-5 (MLL) 16 3 1 0
I-5 (DJJ) 27 0 0 0
I-84 13 1 0 0
US-101 7 14 36 5
US-26 7 5 0 0
I-205 8 2 0 0
I-405 7 0 0 0
US-30 4 2 2 0
US-20 5 3 5 0
OR-38 3 2 1 0
OR-42 4 13 13 1
Others 59 60 6 0
Total 164 106 64 6
Retrofitting Progress
First 16 Years Since Vulnerability was Identified
Years Actions
1994/1997 CH2M Hill prioritization includes all state and local bridges. Priority state bridges 1155
1985-2012 • Phase 1 retrofit added to repair projects 143
Other bridges resolved (replacements or retrofits added
to repair/widening contracts in the STIP & OTIA III program) 212
Total number of bridges addressed 355
Future Bridges still needing retrofitting 800(About 200 years at average 4 bridges retrofitted per year in the
STIP, much longer for Phase 2 and much longer to Pay OTIA III bonds)
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METRO Bridges
Bridge Name Expected Performance Notes I‐5 Boone Bridge Slight Damage Retrofitted Ph 1
I‐5 Marquam Moderate Retrofitted Ph 1
I‐5 Oregon Slough Moderate Poor girder connections
I‐205 Abernethey Moderate Poor column confinement
US30 Bypass St. Johns Extensive Poor column details
I‐405 Fremont Moderate Poor column details
I‐405 Fremont approach Collapse Poor column details
US26 Ross Island Collapse Poor column details
Sellwood, Hawthorne Collapse
Steel, Broadway Collapse
Morrison, Burnside Extensive
Columbia River Bridges US 101 Astoria‐Megler Bridge Collapse Truss, Steel Columns, foundations
US30C Longview‐Ranier Bridge Collapse Retrofitted Ph 1, columns, foundations
I‐5 Interstate Collapse Poor details, counterweight
I‐5 Oregon Slough Moderate Poor girder connections, liquefaction
I‐205 Glen Jackson Slight to moderate Column reinforcement
I‐205 South Channel Slight Column reinforcement