the return on investment of the guggenheim museum bilbao

Volume 302 June 2006 452ndash67 International Journal of Urban and Regional Research

copy

2006 The Author Journal Compilation copy 2006 Joint Editors and Blackwell Publishing Ltd Published by Blackwell Publishing 9600 Garsington Road Oxford OX4 2DQ UK and 350 Main St Malden MA 02148 USA

Original Articles Debates and DevelopmentsDebate

The Return on Investment of the Guggenheim Museum Bilbao

BEATRIZ PLAZA

The city of Bilbao has made use of a museum as one of the multiple means to restructureits former industrial base However the effectiveness of this costly formula is not alwaysclear Three major issues have arisen the effects of Guggenheim Museum Bilbao onBilbaorsquos image the effects on overnight stays and the effects on the local economyThere is little debate about the first issue and room for more evidence on the secondand third issues The aim is to quantify the museumrsquos impact on tourism and employmentand to calculate its yield (Return on Investment and Net Present Value) The approachadopted is the quantitative analysis of statistical data to try to isolate the economiccontribution of the Guggenheim

Introduction

The contemporary urban planning scene often embraces the view that public institutionsand their spaces that focus on art and other forms of lsquohighrsquo culture characterize theprogressive dynamic city that will attract investments encourage civic pride andwelcome innovative individuals Such world class cities include Paris New YorkSingapore Berlin Manchester Glasgow and Toronto as documented in

CulturalPlanning an Urban Renaissance

by Graeme Evans (2001) These cities offer toresidents and visitors alike a taste of intellectual stimulation and appreciation for aspectsof the human condition as represented and preserved by artefacts objects andinterpretative displays

Could Bilbao also be considered an example of such a creative city Museums are aclear example of a lsquocultural industryrsquo a term used in an earlier period as a pejorativereference to the Hollywood machine and the associated apparatus of mass reproductionThe term seems to have gained a measure of respectability with Bilbao Theestablishment of the Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao (GMB) has attracted considerableattention both from European media and academics and particularly from criticsControversies regarding the effectiveness of the GMB have arisen in recent yearsAccording to Gonzaacutelez and Goacutemez (2001 899) lsquothe Guggenheimrsquos alleged multiplyingeffects in the city of Bilbao are not as positive at least in the medium term If thenumber of visitors exceeded the most optimistic expectations in the first year ofoperation an estimate pointed to a decrease in the ldquoGuggenheim effectrdquo for theBasque economyrsquo Graeme Evans quotes this paragraph (2003 433) as follows lsquoThe

The University of the Basque Country (Bilbao) 1UPV 00032321-H-139182001 provided financialsupport for this project I am grateful to MJ Grandes (less Business School Madrid) Chris Pickvance(University of Kent) Bryan Massam (York University) Michael Hebbert (University of Manchester) MoiraStevenson (Deputy Director Manchester City Galleries) Roberto Velasco (University of the BasqueCountry) Rocio Davis (University of Navarre) and Barbara Littlewood who kindly read an early draft ofthe article I am also grateful to Paz Moral (University of the Basque Country) Lina Pentildea (INE) andEUSTAT They are not responsible for my interpretations

Debates and Developments 453

International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 302

copy

2006 The Author Journal Compilation copy 2006 Joint Editors and Blackwell Publishing Ltd

economic impacts of the museum always notoriously hard to attribute have declinedwithin three years of opening and generated growth of only 047 to the Basque GNPin 1997rsquo Furthermore some authors (Rodriguez

et al

2001) attribute to the GMB astrictly consumption-oriented view detached from the endogenous mechanism ofcreation of economic value And to quote Vicario and Martinez Monje (2003 2395ndash6)lsquothere are doubts about the museumrsquos capacity to spearhead adequately the rise of adynamic flourishing culture and tourist industry Some claim that [the GMB] wascreated at enormous public expense drawing funds away from other culturalactivities hence the ldquoflip siderdquo to this ldquo Guggenheim effectrdquo rsquo

1

The purpose ofthis article is to engage their sceptical approach to the GMBrsquos effectiveness in generatingeconomic and social value

Several issues converge in these discussions first the use of signature architecturealways a controversial point in urban planning and development Many argue thatsignature architecture

2

mdash notably by people like Frank Gehry Norman Foster RenzoPiano Rem Koolhaas Daniel Libeskind and Zaha Hadid mdash guarantees urbandevelopment in itself Opponents to this trend point out that the gains are not automaticand the costs mdash which apart from the direct monetary cost might include changing thecharacter of a cityscape mdash outweigh the benefits Second the delegation of publicmoney for an activity that many consider irrelevant and exclusive raised heateddiscussions on the decision to build this museum Third many consider the building ofa Guggenheim in Bilbao as a subtle form of American hegemonic imperialism (McNeill2000 Tickell 2001) which contributes unnecessarily to a warped understanding ofglobalization Finally notwithstanding the lsquoGuggenheim effectrsquo a number of museumexpansions and openings have met with serious problems Take Santiago Calatravarsquosnew wing at the Milwaukee Art Museum (USA) opened in 2001 which did not attractthe number of visitors it had at first projected The City Museum of Washington DCinaugurated new buildings but was forced to close because of low attendance Thismuseum attracted only a fraction of the six-figure annual attendance projected when itopened in 2003 In the case of the Royal Armouries museum in Leeds surveys predicted13 million visitors whereas in reality the amount was one-tenth that number below200000 a year

In the context of studying the effect of a specific museum on tourism the case ofBilbao is particularly relevant and valuable Until the construction of the Guggenheimthe city boasted only a small arts museum which attracted less than 100000 visitors ayear most of them local citizens The fact that cities like London Madrid or New Yorkhave several excellent museums and other forms of art and entertainment makes it

1 For a full list of academic works regarding Bilbao and its regeneration process see httpwwwscholars-on-bilbaoinfo powered by Global Arts Networking Foundation (GANF) (2006) For thebasics see Velasco (1993) Goacutemez (1998) Plaza (1999 2000a 2000b) Esteban (2000) GoacutemezUranga and Etxebarria (2000) McNeill (2000) Gonzaacutelez and Goacutemez (2001) Gospodini (2001)Rodriguez

et al

(2001) Begg (2002) Hamnett and Shoval (2003) Massam and Plaza (2003) Strom(2003) Vicario and Martinez Monje (2003) Del Castillo and Haarich (2004) and Plaza and Massam(2004)

2 This attribute of museums has not been lost on planners and city officials elsewhere who seek tohire world-class architects like Gehry and Liberskind to brand their museum renovation schemesHowever being a lsquocelebrityrsquo is not a sufficient condition to ensure the uniqueness of an architectrsquosdesign since even notable artists produce inconsistent pieces of art lsquoArchitecture like all true worksof art is judged for itself irrespective of its author the material used the kind of forms used or itsposition (initial middle or late) in the authorrsquos line of research Every artist knows very well thatsome of hisher works are better than others and that success in artistic terms is no sure thingeven for the author who is the first to be surprised (thus Picassorsquos much repeated words ldquoI do notseek I findrdquo) Works of art then an artistrsquos best creations are uniquersquo (Frias 1995 3) Creativityis a highly elusive reality for architects likewise As a consequence we underline that strategiesbased solely on lsquouniquenessrsquo of design are highly risky in terms of fulfilling projected public goalsFortunately for the city of Bilbao Frank Gehryrsquos design has turned to be one of the masterpieces oftwentieth-century architecture but it must be remembered that it could also have failed

454 Debate


copy


difficult to discern precisely what is the focus of tourist attention Bilbaorsquos offer of onespecific museum makes the city an almost perfect laboratory for testing the impact ofthis cultural investment In fact Bilbao the largest city in the Basque Country and asymbolic site of industrial regeneration has experienced a significant growth in tourismsince the opening of the Guggenheim Although not previously known for its tourismpotential because of a combination of factors that included extreme pollution and acomplex political situation approximately 7 million people have visited the GMB todate (October 1997ndashDecember 2004) Note that the population of Bilbaorsquos metropolitanarea is less than 1 million whilst the population within the administrative boundaries is400000 The visitor per inhabitant ratio is two visitors per person in the city centre Wewill argue that these figures illustrate the role the Guggenheim plays in the city of Bilbaoand analyse the three major issues that have arisen and which prove the value of themuseum in this context the effects on overnight stays and the effects on employmentand tax income In short the aim of this article is to quantify these effects analysebriefly the results viewed and evaluate the GMBrsquos return on investment (ROI)

The impact on tourism and on employment of the GMB

After the opening of the GMB the city of Bilbao has positioned itself as a weekenddestination for Spanish and foreign visitors alike Formerly business overnight staysduring the week predominated lsquoBilbao was a grey cold and unfriendly industrial city[Visitors] came only for business motives and normally avoided staying over theweekendrsquo (Del Castillo and Haarich 2004) Things have changed A comparisonbetween early data on pre-Guggenheim tourism and current information speaks foritself An initial scan of the data reveals an annual decline in the number of visitors byapproximately 84 between January 1976 and December 1980 a yearly increase of3 between January 1981 and September 1997 and an annual 6 increase betweenOctober 1997 and December 2004 (Figure 1) Considering that the GMB opened itsdoors in October 1997 the sharp rise in the number of tourists can logically be attributedto the museum visitors

The impact of the GMB is observed in the number of overnight stays A dataset with348 months is used to analyse the impact with monthly data from January 1976 toDecember 2004 The statistical data concerning the overnight stays in the BasqueCountry are drawn from the Spanish Governmentrsquos Statistical Authority (INErsquos Surveyon Tourist Establishments) This study employs a time series analysis methodology mdashARIMA models

3

The fitted estimation is given in Table 1The tests used are well adjusted

4

and are the ones generally used in surveys of thisnature As such the conclusions may be considered valid The reading of this resultattributes to the GMB a rise of 61742 monthly overnight stays

5

that is the

3 The ARIMA models are an estimation method frequently employed in tourism research (Gonzalezand Moral 1995)

Φ

(

L

)

Y

t

=

Θ

(

L

)

ε

t

+

micro

+

δ

where

Y

t

are the overnight stays (seasonally adjusted)

Φ

(

L

) is the polynomial with the stationary autoregressive roots and

Θ

(

L

) the invertible movingaverage polynomial

micro

is the constant and

δ

the intervention variable

δ

is a dummy variable(DMMGMB in Table 1) defined as 0 up to 1997M9 and 1 from 1997M10 onwards to measure the GMBimpact Logarithms and first differences of

Y

t

have been taken to stabilize variance and meanrespectively [D(LOG(ONSsa)) in Table 1] The Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test is used tocheck serial autocorrelation The White Test is used to test heteroskedasticity and the Jarque-Berastatistic is used to test normality The presence of outliers is corrected through the use of dummies

4 The roots of the AR and MA processes are outside the unit circle Akaike criterion

=

minus

287 Schwarzcriterion

=

minus

069 Breusch-Godfreyrsquos Serial Correlation LM Test

=

120 Whitersquos HeteroskedasticityTest

=

052 Jarque-Bera Test

=

0135 A 064 increase of monthly overnight stays is due to the GMB (see Table 1) which corresponds to

a rise of 61742 monthly overnight stays



copy


equivalent of 740904 overnight stays per year The question arises as to theplausibility of these results According to Table 2 the average number of visitors tothe GMB per month is 82580 of which 80 are non-Basque that is 66064 visitorsPresumably a significant percentage of these non-Basque Country visitors would stayovernight in the Basque Country Therefore the result from the ARIMA model isreasonable and in spite of the sharp jump in figures we can conclude that theseresults are not only plausible but real As such the issue of the rise in tourism isunquestionable

In this context the challenge facing the Board of Directors of the GMB is to maintainthese figures in a world of increasing competition between important global museumsThe expansion of the Tate Gallery in London the renovation of New Yorkrsquos MoMAand the plans to open a Louvre in Atlanta demonstrate that museum developers areconscious of a discerning public and are catering for their needs As time passes andthe novelty of the GMB wanes the challenge is not only to continue to attract newvisitors but to inspire those who have come before to revisit a museum that continuesto change

Apart from its cultural aims the main purpose of the GMB is to generate economicactivity as emphasized from the beginning of the project by either fostering demandfor the businesses already established in the area or creating new employment Themission and vision of the GMB has to be seen within the context of the city andsurrounding region Bilbao was Spainrsquos northern capital of steel and shipping until themid-1970s mdash then the recession struck and turned this old industrial city into a decayingbackwater Between 1979 and 1985 a large part of the economic structure deterioratedand almost 25 of the industrial jobs in metropolitan Bilbao disappeared (Goacutemez1998) In the late 1980s the cityrsquos authorities began to take the tourism industry seriouslyas a source of job creation that could possibly fill the gaps left by job losses in the oldermanufacturing industries

Figure 1

Visitors to the GMB and overnight stays in the Basque Country (monthly dataseasonally adjusted from January 1976 to December 2004) ONSsa mdash overnight staysseasonally adjusted by the Census X-11 the standard US Bureau of the Census adjustmentmethod GMBsa mdash visitors to the GMB seasonally adjusted Note ETA declared a ceasefirein September 1998 which ended in December 1999 (source Instituto Nacional de Estadistica(INE) and Guggenheim Museum Bilbao)

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

ONSsa GMBsa

456 Debate


copy


Data show an important growth of employment from the opening of the GMBonwards (Figure 2) which may be attributable to the museum However we must alsoconsider whether it stems from other causes such as the favourable economic cycleworldwide or the growth of specific RampD services in the area Using the inputndashoutputmethodology the GMBrsquos official report states that the museum has contributed to themaintenance (note not the lsquocreationrsquo) of almost 4547 employees We interpret theirterm lsquomaintenancersquo in the sense that the GMB has increased the demand for businesseswhich were operating well under their full capacity

The impact of the GMB with respect to employment can be observed using atime series approach rather than a cross-section perspective The statistical dataconcerning employment are drawn from the Spanish National Statistic Institute(quarterly data from the third quarter 1977 to the second quarter 2004) An ARIMAmodel is undertaken where the dependant variable is the number of full-time jobsin the province of Biscay for the service sector (LB) As such we can detect thechange in trend (TRENDDMMGMB in Table 3) in the creation of new jobs inthe services sector from the opening of the museum if any such change in trendexists

Table 1

ARIMA (1211) for the number of overnight stays in the Basque Country (monthlydata seasonally adjusted from January 1976 to December 2004)

Variable Coefficient Std Error

t

-statistic Probability

C

minus

0000208 0001564

minus

0132797 08944

DMMGMB

0006427

0003087 2082216 00381

DMM79M07

minus

0147334 0047701

minus

3088716 00022

DMM79M09 0185401 0046886 3954302 00001

DMM81M08 0132837 0044043 3016103 00028

DMM89M03 0288764 0054455 5302785 00000

DMM89M04

minus

0245634 0054288

minus

4524672 00000

DMM90M07

minus

0133927 0044557

minus

3005774 00029

DMM90M10 0146889 0044286 3316794 00010

DMM02M03 0166586 0054834 3038013 00026

DMM02M04

minus

0206736 0054706

minus

3779074 00002

AR(4) 0130412 0057628 2262995 00243

SAR(6) 0138867 0055518 2501289 00129

SAR(12)

minus

0215099 0054669

minus

3934534 00001

MA(1)

minus

0613014 0047332

minus

1295124 00000

R

2

0479

Adjusted

R

2

0456

F

-statistic 207

Prob(

F

-statistic) 000

Dependent variable D(LOG(ONSsa))Method least squaresSample (adjusted) June 1977 to December 2004Included observations 331 after adjusting endpointsConvergence achieved after 13 iterationsBackcast May 1977

Note

Bold figure represents the change in trend due to the GMB Logarithms and first differences of ONSsaD(LOG(ONSsa)) have been taken to stabilize variance and mean respectively



copy


The fitted relationship is shown in Table 3 The tests used are well adjusted

6

Theequation implies that while from the third quarter 1976 to the third quarter 1997 thegeneration of employment in the service sector grew by an average of 709 jobs perquarter from the fourth quarter 1997 to the second quarter 2004 the increment rose to771 jobs per quarter This change in trend could be read as the generation of 907 newfull-time jobs as a result of the opening of the Guggenheim

Once again we have to question the validity and possible meanings of theseresults Is it plausible to sustain that the GMB has generated 907 new jobs Available


=


=


=


=

09 Jarque-Bera Test

=

279

Table 2

Number of visitors to GMB (annual data from 1997 to 2004)

No of Visitors

OctoberndashDecember 1997 259234

1998 1307065

1999 1109495

2000 948875

2001 930000

2002 851628

2003 869022

2004 909144

Total 7184463

Number of months opened 87

Average monthly 82580

Non-Basque Country visitors (80) 66064

Figure 2

Number of persons employed full time in the service sector in the province ofBiscay (quarterly data from third quarter 1976 to second quarter 2004 thousand employees)(source Spanish National Statistics Institute [INE])

160

200

240

280

320

78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

458 Debate


copy


data for the hotels sector statistics supplied by the Basque Statistic Institute(EUSTAT) show that the number of persons employed in the hotels in the provinceof Biscay rose from 415 employees in October 1997 to 932 in December 2004(Figure 3) along with a sharp increase in the number of beds offered by the hotels(Figure 4) We can reasonably conclude by this comparison that the results aresignificant in this context

Table 3

ARIMA (300) for the number of persons employed full time in the service sectorin the province of Biscay (quarterly data from third quarter 1976 to second quarter 2004)


t

-Statistic Probability

C 1514907 5009148 3024280 00000

TREND 0709139 0077975 9094391 00000

TRENDDMMGMB

0062654

0031711 1975773 00509

AR(1) 0824869 0063906 1290750 00000

SAR(3) 0263541 0109146 2414570 00175

R

2

0986

Adjusted

R

2

0986

F

-statistic 19296

Prob(

F

-statistic) 000

Dependent variable LBMethod least squaresSample (adjusted) March 1977 to February 2004Included observations 108 after adjusting endpointsConvergence achieved after 10 iterations

Note

Bold figure represents the change in trend due to the GMB

Figure 3

Number of persons employed in the hotels of the province of Biscay (monthly datafrom January 1992 to December 2004) (source Basque Statistic Institute [EUSTAT])

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

LHBiscay trend



copy


With deep-rooted experience of the economic impact of heritage Greffe (2004) mdashwho belongs to the French School of Cultural Economics mdash developed a method basedon job functions that determines the number of new jobs according to the quantity ofvisitors 10000 visitors create 115 direct jobs (persons employed in the museum itself)and every direct job generates 062 indirect jobs (in the fields of interior architectureconservation and restoration) 384 induced jobs (by intermediate consumption) and 259jobs in the tourism sector (hotels restaurants tourist guides etc) Therefore 800000visitors per year would represent 92 direct jobs 58 indirect jobs 353 induced jobs and238 in the tourism sector that is 741 in all Accordingly 900000 visitors (Table 2)would generate 834 in total We can reasonably conclude again by this test that the timeseries results (907 new full-time jobs) are plausible and valid

7

Finally according to Del Castillo and Haarichrsquos (2004) analysis of the GMBrsquos effecton Bilbaorsquos business structure the sector dealing directly with tourists (restaurantshotels retail) is the one which benefits from the GMB although they also detect somepositive effects on some cultural and creative sectors such as translation and secretarialservices and the artistic library and handicraft sectors This cultural tourism has alsodeveloped new offers and new skills requirements in the businesses dealing directly with

7 Interestingly Greffe (2004) further analyses the conditions under which a heritage investmentbecomes an asset instead of a liability Certainly investments in heritage sites generate speculationon land prices increase the price of services and as a result hinder economic development whenthese prices affect the local firmsrsquo cost schemes As a consequence negative dynamics wouldsurpass the positive multiplier process In the opinion of Greffe the efficacy of a large heritageinvestment in developing a city depends on two variables Firstly the greater the diversification ofthe cityrsquos economy the greater the absorption of price tensions In other words the overall impactis negative depending on the weight of the heritage industry in the local economy Secondly themore the redevelopment zonersquos markets are integrated the easier the absorption of price tensionsDue to the significance of the non-heritage sector they will have adequate resources in terms oflabour goods and services for productive purposes In Greffersquos words (2004 308) lsquothis justifiesinvestments in the heritage sector in important urban zones whether they are metropolises (NewYork Paris) or smaller towns (Bilbao)rsquo

Figure 4

Number of beds supplied by the hotels of the province of Biscay (monthly datafrom January 1992 to December 2004) (source Basque Statistic Institute [EUSTAT])

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Beds HBiscay

460 Debate


copy


tourists lsquoKnowledge of foreign languages tourist packages wider range of food onoffer improved and enhanced advertisements strategic alliances between restaurantshotels and tour operators are all now a reality in the sectorrsquo Furthermore lsquothe ICTsInternet booking marketing and so on are creating new opportunitiesrsquo (Del Castillo andHaarich 2004 204) and new schemes of business (reengineering) Film and video-related services as well as advertising agencies graphic arts and publishing haveexperienced an important expansion in recent years but no such effect can be directlyattributed to the GMB itself As far as the art galleries antiquarian shops and art tradersare concerned in Del Castillo and Haarichrsquos opinion although the marketing effect ofthe GMB is said to be significant their sales remain stationary

In short the GMB has generated new tourism and new employment and as a resultadditional fiscal income The aim now is to check whether the public authorities thatinvested in the GMB have really recovered their costly investment and if so the numberof years required to recover it

GMBrsquos return on investmentIn a world of competition for public and private funds to support a range of facilitiesthat contribute to a quality of life the museum fares less well than other publicinvestments for example health care and education or in the private sectormanufacturing retailing and information technologies Investors see direct pecuniaryreturns from their investments in those economic activities whereas they have difficultyin identifying direct benefits from their investments in museums Museums necessarilyrely heavily on the public purse private donors and benefactors

Frey and Meiers (2003 3) suggest that lsquoThere are two types of demand for museumsThe first is the private demand exerted by the visitors These may be persons interestedin the exhibitions as a leisure or as part of their profession as an art dealer Thesecond type of demand comes from persons and organizations benefiting from amuseum but not expressing their demand at the cashierrsquos office This social demand isbased on external effects andor the effects of art organizations on other economicactivitiesrsquo In Europe public authorities support museums because they are consideredto be part of the cultural lifeheritage of the nationcity Most of the museums remainpublic largely financed by taxpayers However public museums that rely almostexclusively on public funds provide zero incentives to minimize costs and generateadditional income as the governments always cover operative deficits The GMB onthe contrary operates under a budgetary rule by which the museum itself must cover arelevant percentage of its operating costs and the regional and provincial publicauthorities complete the remaining percentage At present the lsquoself-financepublicsector supportedrsquo ratio is 7030 This scheme guarantees a market-oriented view of themuseumrsquos personnel making them more sensitive to both the customersrsquo tastes andoperative efficiency Museums operate under increasing returns on scale that is highfixed costs combined with low variable costs As a consequence the fulfilment of thebudgetary rule implies commitment to achieving market volume normally throughspecial exhibitions In the opinion of Frey (2000) this is the type of museum thatgenerates a major impact on the local economy

Since the resources invested in the GMB mostly have alternative uses we shouldcalculate the GMBrsquos ROI The GMB is a public good that is an investment thatgenerates positive externalities for both present and future generations In this sense theROI analysis is limited since it is the yield of net cash flows (all the cash flowsreceived and paid by the promoters of the investment) In this regard the ROI does notcapture the value generated by the GMB in terms of say aesthetics and cultural valueThe ROI solely explains whether the public sector recovers its investment through taxincome


International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 302copy 2006 The Author Journal Compilation copy 2006 Joint Editors and Blackwell Publishing Ltd

The GMB is an initiative of the Basque Government and the Provincial Council8

(Diputacioacuten Foral de Bizkaia) The Basque Public Treasuries paid euro1265 million forthe complete project (building land licensing and operative costs before the openingof the GMB mdash permanent collection and taxes excluded see Table 6 in the Appendix)The crucial question is whether the Public Treasuries will recover their initialinvestment and whether the cash flow generated by GMB will validate the large initialinvestment If this is the case how long will the recovery take The GMBrsquos officialreport in 2004 states that initial investments have already been recovered in the first 6years This ostensibly daring assertion needs to be tested

In order to test this assertion it is necessary to make certain assumptions for thecalculation of the cash flows Some of these assumptions are quite restrictive but I preferto negotiate these limits in order to derive more conservative results and avoid falseconclusions As outlined earlier the GMB was promoted mainly by the regional andprovincial administrations In fact the Guggenheim has become a symbol of Spanishfiscal federalism an emblematic public investment made without any recourse to centralgovernment funds Interestingly at the time the Basque administration and theGuggenheim Foundation New York began negotiations Frank Lloyd Wrightrsquos buildingin New York was being refurbished and the Solomon Guggenheim Foundation neededurgent fund raising The Basque Public Treasuries paid euro159 million (taxes excluded)for the construction start-up costs purchase of paintings and licensing fee for 20 years(Table 6 in Appendix) Furthermore the public budget must also finance GMBrsquosoperating deficits I calculate the ROI of this particular project (GMB) from thehypothetical scenario described in the Appendix The outlay of the cash flows requiresa comparison of two tables in order to appreciate a significant variance between ROIfrom Table 4 (purchase of permanent collection not included) and ROI from Table 5(purchase of permanent collection included) with a ROI of 157 and 109respectively

Viewing Table 5 the results show a positive ROI of 109 However when the netpresent value (NPV) is calculated the results do not match those supplied by the GMBrsquosofficial report of 2004 which states that the initial investment was already recovered inthe first 6 years My calculations on the contrary say that overall initial investment plusthe operative deficit will be recuperated by the year 2006 assuming the conditionsstated in the Appendix are realized and an 8 discount rate9 (Table 4) At this point Iwant to suggest that there is an important error in the calculations executed by theGMB Firstly cash flows must also include both the operational deficits incurred byGMB payable by the Provincial Treasuries of Biscay and the new investments in theGMBrsquos permanent collection of art Secondly there is a methodological elision in theGMBrsquos official report (2004) since positive and negative cash flows must be discountedfor the entire period of the project that is 20 years according to the licensing contractbetween Guggenheim Foundation New York and GMB So although it is clear that theinitial investment will have been regained by the year 2006 (9 years after opening) thereal figures of NPV necessarily include the continual investments made by the museumin order to increase its permanent collection At an 8 discount rate this yearlyinvestment makes a true completed positive NPV unrealistic until the year 2015(Table 5)

8 There are Guggenheim museums in four countries including New York Las Vegas Venice Berlinand Bilbao The Guggenheim Museum Bilbao and the Deutsche Guggenheim Berlin are separate legalentities not owned or controlled by the Guggenheim Foundation

9 The French Commissariat au Plan recommends using a constant 8 per year as the discount ratefor all public investments and most developed countries use a rate between 5 and 8 (Gollier2002 163) In this article to keep it simple I assume that the discount rate is 8 An extendedversion of this article would demand the recalculation of the NPV reconsidering that the project isannually refinanced with short-term interest rates in order to establish a range of plausibleestimates since I feel that 8 is a conservative hypothesis

462 Debate


Table

4R

OI

of t

he

GM

B t

o t

he

pu

blic

tre

asu

ries

Pu

rch

ase

of t

he

per

man

ent

colle

ctio

n n

ot i

ncl

ud

ed

Yea

rR

est

of

Sp

ain

+Fo

reig

nV

isit

ors

Taxe

sA

dd

itio

nal

Rev

en

ue

du

eto

GM

B (euro

)

De

fici

tG

MB

(euro

)A

mo

rtiz

atio

no

f th

eB

uild

ing

(euro)

GM

Brsquos

De

fici

t +

Am

ort

izat

ion

(euro)

Inve

stm

en

t in

GM

Brsquos

Bu

ildin

g+

Op

era

tive

Co

sts

(euro)

Res

idu

al V

alu

eo

f G

MB

in Y

ear

20

17 (euro

)

Cas

h-f

low

sP

ub

licTr

easu

ry (euro

)

Net

Pre

sen

tV

alu

e a

t an

8

Dis

cou

nt

Rat

e

minus126

49

50

18minus1

264

95

018

199

717

88

71

58

718

88

minus99

67

820

23

94

49

2minus7

573

328

minus17

014

40

minus118

58

372

7

199

89

018

7527

56

24

15minus5

48

42

362

39

44

92

minus30

89

74

324

472

672

minus99

156

53

1

199

99

208

81

293

59

44

1minus5

919

90

32

39

44

92

minus35

254

1125

83

40

30minus8

016

774

8

200

078

75

66

277

84

79

0minus5

818

225

23

94

49

2minus3

423

733

243

610

57

minus63

58

80

22

200

177

190

026

94

93

83

minus68

236

702

39

44

92

minus44

2917

822

520

20

5minus4

93

96

473

200

272

38

84

259

88

68

5minus7

60

725

32

39

44

92

minus52

127

61

207

759

24minus3

727

39

20

200

374

35

86

277

115

80

minus78

1913

22

39

44

92

minus54

246

40

222

86

94

0minus2

52

329

80

200

48

182

3029

46

58

82

minus75

34

776

23

94

49

2minus5

140

28

424

325

59

8minus1

30

64

125

200

58

100

47

298

202

71

minus77

60

819

23

94

49

2minus5

36

63

2724

45

39

44

minus17

372

17

200

68

019

47

3016

60

32minus7

99

36

44

23

94

49

2minus5

59

915

224

56

68

80

87

99

09

7

200

779

39

2730

50

189

5minus8

233

45

32

39

44

92

minus58

389

61

246

62

93

418

59

30

88

200

878

59

88

308

280

25minus8

48

04

57

23

94

49

2minus6

08

59

64

247

42

06

027

69

06

92

200

977

812

831

144

58

2minus8

73

48

702

39

44

92

minus63

40

378

248

04

20

336

135

55

7

2010

770

34

73

145

1724

minus89

96

917

23

94

49

2minus6

60

24

2424

84

93

00

43

96

90

92

2011

762

64

331

74

96

10minus9

26

68

242

39

44

92

minus68

723

3224

877

278

512

305

33

2012

755

017

320

383

92

minus95

44

829

23

94

49

2minus7

150

336

248

88

05

65

79

57

00

2

2013

747

46

732

318

224

minus98

3117

42

39

44

92

minus74

366

81

248

815

43

64

183

58

4

2014

739

99

232

58

92

56

minus10

126

109

23

94

49

2minus7

731

617

248

57

639

69

94

339

8

2015

732

59

232

85

1635

minus10

429

89

22

39

44

92

minus80

354

00

248

162

3575

26

76

77

2016

725

26

633

105

50

7minus1

07

42

78

92

39

44

92

minus83

48

29

724

75

72

118

018

58

39

2017

718

014

333

510

17minus1

106

50

732

39

44

92

minus86

705

80

65

30

08

88

89

98

132

59

67

37

05

0

RO

I =

157



Table

5R

OI

of t

he

GM

B t

o t

he

pu

blic

tre

asu

ries

Pu

rch

ase

of t

he

per

man

ent

colle

ctio

n i

ncl

ud

ed

Yea

rR

est

of

Sp

ain

+Fo

reig

nV

isit

ors

Taxe

sA

dd

itio

nal

Rev

en

ue

du

eto

GM

B (euro

)

De

fici

tG

MB

(euro

)A

mo

rtiz

atio

no

f th

eB

uild

ing

(euro

)

GM

Brsquos

De

fici

t +

Am

ort

izat

ion

(euro)

Inve

stm

en

t in

GM

Brsquos

Bu

ildin

g +

Op

era

tive

Co

sts

(euro)

Pu

rch

ase

of

the

Pe

rman

en

tC

olle

ctio

n

Res

idu

al V

alu

eo

f G

MB

in Y

ear

20

17 (euro

)

Cas

h-f

low

sP

ub

licTr

easu

ry (euro

)

Net

Pre

sen

tV

alu

e a

tan

8

Dis

cou

nt

Rat

e

minus126

49

50

18minus3

23

104

11minus1

58

80

54

29

199

717

88

71

58

718

88

minus99

67

820

23

94

49

2minus7

573

328

minus42

40

00

0minus5

94

144

0minus1

52

135

89

1

199

89

018

7527

56

24

15minus5

48

42

362

39

44

92

minus30

89

74

3minus4

24

00

00

202

326

72minus1

360

745

43

199

99

208

81

293

59

44

1minus5

919

90

32

39

44

92

minus35

254

11minus4

24

00

00

215

94

030

minus120

20

22

86

200

078

75

66

277

84

79

0minus5

818

225

23

94

49

2minus3

423

733

minus42

40

00

020

1210

57

minus10

65

08

233

200

177

190

026

94

93

83

minus68

236

702

39

44

92

minus44

2917

8minus4

24

00

00

182

80

20

5minus9

49

88

60

3

200

272

38

84

259

88

68

5minus7

60

725

32

39

44

92

minus52

127

61

minus42

40

00

016

535

924

minus85

34

00

51

200

374

35

86

277

115

80

minus78

1913

22

39

44

92

minus54

246

40

minus42

40

00

018

04

69

40

minus75

58

98

50

200

48

182

3029

46

58

82

minus75

34

776

23

94

49

2minus5

140

28

4minus6

00

00

00

183

255

98

minus66

422

48

9

200

58

100

47

298

202

71

minus77

60

819

23

94

49

2minus5

36

63

27minus6

00

00

00

184

53

94

4minus5

78

747

42

200

68

019

47

3016

60

32minus7

99

36

44

23

94

49

2minus5

59

915

2minus6

00

00

00

185

66

88

0minus4

99

117

25

200

779

39

2730

50

189

5minus8

233

45

32

39

44

92

minus58

389

61

minus60

00

00

018

66

29

34

minus42

50

04

17

200

878

59

88

308

280

25minus8

48

04

57

23

94

49

2minus6

08

59

64

minus60

00

00

018

74

20

60

minus35

60

90

00

200

977

812

83

114

45

82

minus87

34

870

23

94

49

2minus6

34

03

78minus6

00

00

00

188

04

20

3minus2

92

06

90

2

2010

770

34

73

145

1724

minus89

96

917

23

94

49

2minus6

60

24

24minus6

00

00

00

188

49

30

0minus2

326

48

16

2011

762

64

331

74

96

10minus9

26

68

242

39

44

92

minus68

723

32minus6

00

00

00

188

772

78minus1

775

47

19

2012

755

017

320

383

92

minus95

44

829

23

94

49

2minus7

150

336

minus60

00

00

018

88

80

56

minus12

64

98

64

2013

747

46

732

318

224

minus98

3117

42

39

44

92

minus74

366

81

minus60

00

00

018

88

154

3minus7

924

776

2014

739

99

232

58

92

56

minus10

126

109

23

94

49

2minus7

73

1617

minus60

00

00

018

85

76

39minus3

55

52

33

20

1573

25

92

328

516

35minus1

04

298

92

23

94

49

2minus8

035

40

0minus6

00

00

00

188

162

354

81

75

6

2016

725

26

633

105

50

7minus1

07

42

78

92

39

44

92

minus83

48

29

7minus6

00

00

00

187

57

211

42

07

98

4

2017

718

014

333

510

17minus1

106

50

732

39

44

92

minus86

705

80

minus60

00

00

022

99

616

2224

86

42

05

94

99

43

33

0

RO

I =

109

464 Debate


The financial planning of the GMB has allowed the initial investment to be recoveredin little more than a decade possibly a world record Nonetheless the Guggenheim likeall major museums around the world continues to struggle to seek new sources ofrevenue from governments and donors to balance its books The reliance on ticket salesfrom blockbuster exhibitions for example can generate large revenues for a museumHowever this tends to limit access to the museum for those citizens who prefer to spendtheir money on other recreationalcultural activities that are less expensive The questionof balancing art and investment aesthetics and consumerism will continue to plaguepoliticians artists and citizens all over the world

Final remarksAlthough the initial investment in the GMB logically raised heated discussions thereis now ample proof of positive economic returns that have surpassed early cautiousexpectations These results cast doubt on criticism that challenges the impact of theGMB as an instrument of economic and cultural policy However the GMB caseshould not be uncritically replicated elsewhere since the risks involved in the modelwere high Signature architecture or a dramatic cultural investment does not guaranteeurban redevelopment in itself as some may mistakenly conclude from this article Onthe contrary although the final outcome in the case of Bilbao is positive the GMBshould not be employed as the means to legitimize the instrumentalization ofsignature architecture or extreme investments The success of the museum alsodepends importantly on both the vernacular conditions and on the consistent efforts ofthe Museum Director to continuously innovate and generate activities of interest tokeep the public coming These crucial points are difficult to factor into any graphicanalysis of a museumrsquos ROI but are essential to its development and positiveoutcome

Beatriz Plaza (beatrizplazaehues) Faculty of Economics University of the Basque Country Avenida Lehendakari Aguirre 83 48015 Bilbao Spain

ReferencesBegg I (2002) lsquoInvestabilityrsquo the key to

competitive regions and cities Regional Studies 362 187ndash93

Del Castillo J and SN Haarich (2004) Urban renaissance arts and culture the Bilbao region as an innovative milieu In R Camagni D Maillat and A Matteaccioli (eds) Ressources naturelles et culturelles milieux et deacuteveloppement local (GREMI VI) Institut de Recherches Eacuteconomiques et Reacutegionales (IRER) Universiteacute Neuchatecircl Neuchacirctel

Esteban M (2000) Bilbao Luces y sombras de titanio El proceso de regeneracion del Bilbao metropolitano [Bilbao lights and shadows of titanium The process of regeneration of metropolitan Bilbao] Servicio Editorial Universidad del Pais Vasco Bilbao

Evans G (2001) Cultural planning an urban renaissance Routledge London

mdashmdash (2003) Hard-branding the cultural city mdash from Prado to Prada International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 272 417ndash40

Frey BS (2000) Arts amp economics Analysis amp cultural policy Springer New York

mdashmdash and S Meier (2003) The economics of museums Working Paper No 149 ISSN 1424-0459 Institute for Empirical Research in Economics

Frias MA (1995) Art as a sign of plenitude Paradigms of philosophizing The St Petersburg Association of Scientists St Petersburg

Global Arts Networking Foundation (GANF) (2006) Scholars on Bilbao GANF



Guernica httpwwwscholars-on-bilbaoinfo [accessed 17 May 2006]

Gollier C (2002) Discounting an uncertain future Journal of Public Economics 85 149ndash66

Goacutemez MV (1998) Reflective images the case of urban regeneration in Glasgow and Bilbao International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 221 106ndash21

Goacutemez Uranga M and G Etxebarria (2000) Panorama of the Basque Country and its competence for self-government European Planning Studies 84 521ndash35

Gonzaacutelez P and P Moral (1995) An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain International Journal of Forecasting 11 233ndash51

Gonzaacutelez S and MV Goacutemez (2001) Reply to Beatriz Plazarsquos lsquoThe Guggenheim-Bilbao Museum Effectrsquo International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 254 898ndash90

Gospodini A (2001) Urban design urban space morphology urban tourism an emerging new paradigm concerning their relationship European Planning Studies 97 925ndash34

Greffe X (2004) Is heritage an asset or a liability Journal of Cultural Heritage 5 301ndash9

Guggenheim Museum Bilbao (2004) Impact of the activities of the Guggenheim Museum Bilbao in the economy of the Basque Country Official report

Hamnett C and N Shoval (2003) Museums as ldquoflagshipsrdquo of urban development In LM Hoffman D Judd and SS Fainstein (eds) Cities and visitors Regulating people markets and city space Blackwell Oxford

Massam BH and B Plaza (2003) The museum as a public good Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao Discussion Paper 55 Department of Geography York University Toronto

McNeill D (2000) McGuggenisation National identity and globalisation in the Basque country Political Geography 194 473ndash94

Plaza B (1999) The Guggenheim-Bilbao Museum effect a reply International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 233 589ndash92

mdashmdash (2000a) Evaluating the influence of a large cultural artifact in the attraction of tourism Urban Affairs Review 362 264ndash74

mdashmdash (2000b) The Guggenheim Museum Bilbao and Basque high cuisine an approach to the transmission of know-how Tourism and Hospitality Management 612 119ndash26

mdashmdash and BH Massam (2004) The Guggenheim Museum Bilbao views on the impacts costs and urban re-development Discussion Paper 56 Department of Geography York University Toronto

Rodriguez A E Martinez and G Guenaga (2001) Uneven redevelopment new urban policies and socio-spatial fragmentation in metropolitan Bilbao European Urban and Regional Studies 82 161ndash78

Strom E (2003) Cultural policy as development policy evidence from the United States International Journal of Cultural Policy 93 247ndash63

Tickell A (2001) Progress in the geography of services mdash II services the state and the rearticulation of capitalism Progress in Human Geography 252 283ndash92

Velasco R (1993) Desafios actuales de la economia vasca [Present challenges for the Basque Economy] Papeles de Economiacutea Espantildeola 55 Fundacion FIES Madrid

Vicario L and PM Martinez Monje (2003) Another lsquoGuggenheim effectrsquo the generation of a potentially gentrifiable neighbourhood in Bilbao Urban Studies 4012 2383ndash400

AppendixI calculate the ROI of this particular project (GMB) for the cash flows under thefollowing hypothetical scenario

1 The cash flows reflected in Tables 4 and 5 correspond to the net income plusdepreciation and amortization calculated from the GMBrsquos income statement Ihypothesize that changes in working capital requirements and gross investment infixed assets are negligible

2 See in Table 6 the costs before the opening of the museum in order to compare withlater costs and benefits

466 Debate


3 It has to be noted that visitors from the Basque Country may have low multiplyingeffects on the economy Visitors from the rest of Spain and foreigners by contrastmay stay in Bilbao for at least one night and spend money on other activities apartfrom the museum Therefore Basque citizens are excluded from the calculation ofthe ROI

4 I calculate 1 annual decline in non-Basque Country visitors (both Spaniardsand foreigners) from 2005 to 2017 whereas empirical evidence shows that thetrend for foreign visitors staying overnight has increased since the opening ofthe GMB (Figure 5) This hypothesis is adopted to guarantee a less favourableresult

Table 6 Costs of the GMB before opening (October 1997)

Million euro

1 Payment to Solomon R Guggenheim Foundation New York (brand) 1330

Additional services of Solomon R Guggenheim Foundation NY 464

2 Land 721

3 Building

Design architect (Frank Gehry) 870

Executive architect (Idom) 468

Construction of the building and its surroundings 7310

4 Purchase of pieces of art 3231

5 Taxes 721

6 Operative costs up to the opening of the GMB 1487

Total 16602

Source Tribunal Vasco de Cuentas Publicas

Figure 5 Overnight stays of foreign visitors in the Basque Country (monthly dataseasonally adjusted from January 1976 to December 2004) FONSsa mdash overnight stays offoreign visitors seasonally adjusted (source Spanish National Statistic Institute [INE])

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

FONSsa trend



5 The Provincial Treasuries of Biscay estimate additional tax revenue due to GMBthrough inputndashoutput analysis According to their estimates one more non-BasqueCountry visitor generates an additional euro3601 in tax revenues (GMBrsquos 2004 annualreport) Here according to our own calculations we assume that revenues of thepublic treasuries increase by euro3601 for every non-Basque Country visitor and thatthis figure increases by euro0803 per year This euro3601 corresponds to both direct andindirect taxes

6 I restrict the calculation of the discount of cash flows to the 20 years10 in which thecontract signed between the Basque authorities and the Solomon GuggenheimFoundation New York remains valid

7 As regards the residual value of the building in 2017 I assume that the land will beworth the amount paid for it in 1997 capitalized at an annual 3 interest rate thatis euro13416715 I amortize the building in 50 years therefore the residual value ofthe building in the year 2017 would correspond to euro51884172 (with 30 years left)Again I have established a conservative hypothesis

8 As far as the permanent collection11 is concerned if in the year 2017 the GMB wereto sell its own collection of art it would be sold at a residual value probably superiorto the purchasing cost supposing that such purchases had been made rationally Inthis article I assume that the GMBrsquos collection of art capitalizes at a 1 compoundrate quite a restrictive assumption In Table 4 I do not include the permanentcollection whereas in Table 5 the rates of investment on the permanent collectionsignificantly modify my perspective on ROI

9 I also presuppose that the ratio fixedvariable costs is entrenched in the long run thatis I assume the worst of scenarios that the GMB does not adjust total costs accordingto their activity in the long run This hypothesis is again adopted to guarantee theless favourable result

ReacutesumeacuteLa ville de Bilbao srsquoest servie drsquoun museacutee comme moyen parmi bien drsquoautres dereacuteorganiser son ancienne infrastructure industrielle Pourtant lrsquoefficaciteacute de cetteoneacutereuse formule nrsquoest pas toujours eacutevidente Trois grandes questions se sont poseacuteesles effets du Museacutee Guggenheim Bilbao sur lrsquoimage de la ville les incidences sur lesnuiteacutees et les conseacutequences pour lrsquoeacuteconomie locale La premiegravere suscite peu de deacutebatset les deuxiegraveme et troisiegraveme probleacutematiques restent agrave deacutemontrer Le but est de quantifierlrsquoimpact du museacutee sur le tourisme et lrsquoemploi et de calculer son rendement (rendementdu capital investi et valeur actualiseacutee nette) Lrsquoapproche adopteacutee est une analysequantitative de donneacutees statistiques visant agrave isoler lrsquoapport eacuteconomique duGuggenheim

10 The contract between the Basque authorities and the Solomon Guggenheim Foundation New Yorkmay be extended to 75 years However we will limit the calculations to the contract underway thatis 20 years

11 The important constraint of this model is that the Guggenheim Foundation New York retains tightcontrol by supplying the works of art from its own collection and the provision of administrativeand curatorial expertise Furthermore some pieces of art from the core art collection (New York)are subject to mobility restrictions which may limit the efficacy of the GMB In this context thepurchase of its own permanent collection by GMB contributes to diminishing part of the operativerisk of the project in detriment to its financial risk



copy


economic impacts of the museum always notoriously hard to attribute have declinedwithin three years of opening and generated growth of only 047 to the Basque GNPin 1997rsquo Furthermore some authors (Rodriguez

et al

2001) attribute to the GMB astrictly consumption-oriented view detached from the endogenous mechanism ofcreation of economic value And to quote Vicario and Martinez Monje (2003 2395ndash6)lsquothere are doubts about the museumrsquos capacity to spearhead adequately the rise of adynamic flourishing culture and tourist industry Some claim that [the GMB] wascreated at enormous public expense drawing funds away from other culturalactivities hence the ldquoflip siderdquo to this ldquo Guggenheim effectrdquo rsquo

1

The purpose ofthis article is to engage their sceptical approach to the GMBrsquos effectiveness in generatingeconomic and social value

Several issues converge in these discussions first the use of signature architecturealways a controversial point in urban planning and development Many argue thatsignature architecture

2

mdash notably by people like Frank Gehry Norman Foster RenzoPiano Rem Koolhaas Daniel Libeskind and Zaha Hadid mdash guarantees urbandevelopment in itself Opponents to this trend point out that the gains are not automaticand the costs mdash which apart from the direct monetary cost might include changing thecharacter of a cityscape mdash outweigh the benefits Second the delegation of publicmoney for an activity that many consider irrelevant and exclusive raised heateddiscussions on the decision to build this museum Third many consider the building ofa Guggenheim in Bilbao as a subtle form of American hegemonic imperialism (McNeill2000 Tickell 2001) which contributes unnecessarily to a warped understanding ofglobalization Finally notwithstanding the lsquoGuggenheim effectrsquo a number of museumexpansions and openings have met with serious problems Take Santiago Calatravarsquosnew wing at the Milwaukee Art Museum (USA) opened in 2001 which did not attractthe number of visitors it had at first projected The City Museum of Washington DCinaugurated new buildings but was forced to close because of low attendance Thismuseum attracted only a fraction of the six-figure annual attendance projected when itopened in 2003 In the case of the Royal Armouries museum in Leeds surveys predicted13 million visitors whereas in reality the amount was one-tenth that number below200000 a year

In the context of studying the effect of a specific museum on tourism the case ofBilbao is particularly relevant and valuable Until the construction of the Guggenheimthe city boasted only a small arts museum which attracted less than 100000 visitors ayear most of them local citizens The fact that cities like London Madrid or New Yorkhave several excellent museums and other forms of art and entertainment makes it

1 For a full list of academic works regarding Bilbao and its regeneration process see httpwwwscholars-on-bilbaoinfo powered by Global Arts Networking Foundation (GANF) (2006) For thebasics see Velasco (1993) Goacutemez (1998) Plaza (1999 2000a 2000b) Esteban (2000) GoacutemezUranga and Etxebarria (2000) McNeill (2000) Gonzaacutelez and Goacutemez (2001) Gospodini (2001)Rodriguez

et al

(2001) Begg (2002) Hamnett and Shoval (2003) Massam and Plaza (2003) Strom(2003) Vicario and Martinez Monje (2003) Del Castillo and Haarich (2004) and Plaza and Massam(2004)

2 This attribute of museums has not been lost on planners and city officials elsewhere who seek tohire world-class architects like Gehry and Liberskind to brand their museum renovation schemesHowever being a lsquocelebrityrsquo is not a sufficient condition to ensure the uniqueness of an architectrsquosdesign since even notable artists produce inconsistent pieces of art lsquoArchitecture like all true worksof art is judged for itself irrespective of its author the material used the kind of forms used or itsposition (initial middle or late) in the authorrsquos line of research Every artist knows very well thatsome of hisher works are better than others and that success in artistic terms is no sure thingeven for the author who is the first to be surprised (thus Picassorsquos much repeated words ldquoI do notseek I findrdquo) Works of art then an artistrsquos best creations are uniquersquo (Frias 1995 3) Creativityis a highly elusive reality for architects likewise As a consequence we underline that strategiesbased solely on lsquouniquenessrsquo of design are highly risky in terms of fulfilling projected public goalsFortunately for the city of Bilbao Frank Gehryrsquos design has turned to be one of the masterpieces oftwentieth-century architecture but it must be remembered that it could also have failed

454 Debate


copy






3


4


5

that is the


Φ

(

L

)

Y

t

=

Θ

(

L

)

ε

t

+

micro

+

δ

where

Y

t


Φ

(

L


Θ

(

L


micro

is the constant and

δ


δ


Y

t



=

minus


=

minus


=


=


=





copy





Figure 1


0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

ONSsa GMBsa

456 Debate


copy




Table 1



t


C

minus

0000208 0001564

minus

0132797 08944

DMMGMB

0006427

0003087 2082216 00381

DMM79M07

minus

0147334 0047701

minus

3088716 00022

DMM79M09 0185401 0046886 3954302 00001

DMM81M08 0132837 0044043 3016103 00028

DMM89M03 0288764 0054455 5302785 00000

DMM89M04

minus

0245634 0054288

minus

4524672 00000

DMM90M07

minus

0133927 0044557

minus

3005774 00029

DMM90M10 0146889 0044286 3316794 00010

DMM02M03 0166586 0054834 3038013 00026

DMM02M04

minus

0206736 0054706

minus

3779074 00002

AR(4) 0130412 0057628 2262995 00243

SAR(6) 0138867 0055518 2501289 00129

SAR(12)

minus

0215099 0054669

minus

3934534 00001

MA(1)

minus

0613014 0047332

minus

1295124 00000

R

2

0479

Adjusted

R

2

0456

F

-statistic 207

Prob(

F

-statistic) 000


Note




copy



6




=


=


=


=

09 Jarque-Bera Test

=

279

Table 2


No of Visitors


1998 1307065

1999 1109495

2000 948875

2001 930000

2002 851628

2003 869022

2004 909144

Total 7184463




Figure 2


160

200

240

280

320

78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

458 Debate


copy



Table 3



t


C 1514907 5009148 3024280 00000

TREND 0709139 0077975 9094391 00000

TRENDDMMGMB

0062654

0031711 1975773 00509

AR(1) 0824869 0063906 1290750 00000

SAR(3) 0263541 0109146 2414570 00175

R

2

0986

Adjusted

R

2

0986

F

-statistic 19296

Prob(

F

-statistic) 000


Note


Figure 3


800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

LHBiscay trend



copy



7



Figure 4


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Beds HBiscay

460 Debate


copy















462 Debate


Table

4R

OI

of t

he

GM

B t

o t

he

pu

blic

tre

asu

ries

Pu

rch

ase

of t

he

per

man

ent

colle

ctio

n n

ot i

ncl

ud

ed

Yea

rR

est

of

Sp

ain

+Fo

reig

nV

isit

ors

Taxe

sA

dd

itio

nal

Rev

en

ue

du

eto

GM

B (euro

)

De

fici

tG

MB

(euro

)A

mo

rtiz

atio

no

f th

eB

uild

ing

(euro)

GM

Brsquos

De

fici

t +

Am

ort

izat

ion

(euro)

Inve

stm

en

t in

GM

Brsquos

Bu

ildin

g+

Op

era

tive

Co

sts

(euro)

Res

idu

al V

alu

eo

f G

MB

in Y

ear

20

17 (euro

)

Cas

h-f

low

sP

ub

licTr

easu

ry (euro

)

Net

Pre

sen

tV

alu

e a

t an

8

Dis

cou

nt

Rat

e

minus126

49

50

18minus1

264

95

018

199

717

88

71

58

718

88

minus99

67

820

23

94

49

2minus7

573

328

minus17

014

40

minus118

58

372

7

199

89

018

7527

56

24

15minus5

48

42

362

39

44

92

minus30

89

74

324

472

672

minus99

156

53

1

199

99

208

81

293

59

44

1minus5

919

90

32

39

44

92

minus35

254

1125

83

40

30minus8

016

774

8

200

078

75

66

277

84

79

0minus5

818

225

23

94

49

2minus3

423

733

243

610

57

minus63

58

80

22

200

177

190

026

94

93

83

minus68

236

702

39

44

92

minus44

2917

822

520

20

5minus4

93

96

473

200

272

38

84

259

88

68

5minus7

60

725

32

39

44

92

minus52

127

61

207

759

24minus3

727

39

20

200

374

35

86

277

115

80

minus78

1913

22

39

44

92

minus54

246

40

222

86

94

0minus2

52

329

80

200

48

182

3029

46

58

82

minus75

34

776

23

94

49

2minus5

140

28

424

325

59

8minus1

30

64

125

200

58

100

47

298

202

71

minus77

60

819

23

94

49

2minus5

36

63

2724

45

39

44

minus17

372

17

200

68

019

47

3016

60

32minus7

99

36

44

23

94

49

2minus5

59

915

224

56

68

80

87

99

09

7

200

779

39

2730

50

189

5minus8

233

45

32

39

44

92

minus58

389

61

246

62

93

418

59

30

88

200

878

59

88

308

280

25minus8

48

04

57

23

94

49

2minus6

08

59

64

247

42

06

027

69

06

92

200

977

812

831

144

58

2minus8

73

48

702

39

44

92

minus63

40

378

248

04

20

336

135

55

7

2010

770

34

73

145

1724

minus89

96

917

23

94

49

2minus6

60

24

2424

84

93

00

43

96

90

92

2011

762

64

331

74

96

10minus9

26

68

242

39

44

92

minus68

723

3224

877

278

512

305

33

2012

755

017

320

383

92

minus95

44

829

23

94

49

2minus7

150

336

248

88

05

65

79

57

00

2

2013

747

46

732

318

224

minus98

3117

42

39

44

92

minus74

366

81

248

815

43

64

183

58

4

2014

739

99

232

58

92

56

minus10

126

109

23

94

49

2minus7

731

617

248

57

639

69

94

339

8

2015

732

59

232

85

1635

minus10

429

89

22

39

44

92

minus80

354

00

248

162

3575

26

76

77

2016

725

26

633

105

50

7minus1

07

42

78

92

39

44

92

minus83

48

29

724

75

72

118

018

58

39

2017

718

014

333

510

17minus1

106

50

732

39

44

92

minus86

705

80

65

30

08

88

89

98

132

59

67

37

05

0

RO

I =

157



Table

5R

OI

of t

he

GM

B t

o t

he

pu

blic

tre

asu

ries

Pu

rch

ase

of t

he

per

man

ent

colle

ctio

n i

ncl

ud

ed

Yea

rR

est

of

Sp

ain

+Fo

reig

nV

isit

ors

Taxe

sA

dd

itio

nal

Rev

en

ue

du

eto

GM

B (euro

)

De

fici

tG

MB

(euro

)A

mo

rtiz

atio

no

f th

eB

uild

ing

(euro

)

GM

Brsquos

De

fici

t +

Am

ort

izat

ion

(euro)

Inve

stm

en

t in

GM

Brsquos

Bu

ildin

g +

Op

era

tive

Co

sts

(euro)

Pu

rch

ase

of

the

Pe

rman

en

tC

olle

ctio

n

Res

idu

al V

alu

eo

f G

MB

in Y

ear

20

17 (euro

)

Cas

h-f

low

sP

ub

licTr

easu

ry (euro

)

Net

Pre

sen

tV

alu

e a

tan

8

Dis

cou

nt

Rat

e

minus126

49

50

18minus3

23

104

11minus1

58

80

54

29

199

717

88

71

58

718

88

minus99

67

820

23

94

49

2minus7

573

328

minus42

40

00

0minus5

94

144

0minus1

52

135

89

1

199

89

018

7527

56

24

15minus5

48

42

362

39

44

92

minus30

89

74

3minus4

24

00

00

202

326

72minus1

360

745

43

199

99

208

81

293

59

44

1minus5

919

90

32

39

44

92

minus35

254

11minus4

24

00

00

215

94

030

minus120

20

22

86

200

078

75

66

277

84

79

0minus5

818

225

23

94

49

2minus3

423

733

minus42

40

00

020

1210

57

minus10

65

08

233

200

177

190

026

94

93

83

minus68

236

702

39

44

92

minus44

2917

8minus4

24

00

00

182

80

20

5minus9

49

88

60

3

200

272

38

84

259

88

68

5minus7

60

725

32

39

44

92

minus52

127

61

minus42

40

00

016

535

924

minus85

34

00

51

200

374

35

86

277

115

80

minus78

1913

22

39

44

92

minus54

246

40

minus42

40

00

018

04

69

40

minus75

58

98

50

200

48

182

3029

46

58

82

minus75

34

776

23

94

49

2minus5

140

28

4minus6

00

00

00

183

255

98

minus66

422

48

9

200

58

100

47

298

202

71

minus77

60

819

23

94

49

2minus5

36

63

27minus6

00

00

00

184

53

94

4minus5

78

747

42

200

68

019

47

3016

60

32minus7

99

36

44

23

94

49

2minus5

59

915

2minus6

00

00

00

185

66

88

0minus4

99

117

25

200

779

39

2730

50

189

5minus8

233

45

32

39

44

92

minus58

389

61

minus60

00

00

018

66

29

34

minus42

50

04

17

200

878

59

88

308

280

25minus8

48

04

57

23

94

49

2minus6

08

59

64

minus60

00

00

018

74

20

60

minus35

60

90

00

200

977

812

83

114

45

82

minus87

34

870

23

94

49

2minus6

34

03

78minus6

00

00

00

188

04

20

3minus2

92

06

90

2

2010

770

34

73

145

1724

minus89

96

917

23

94

49

2minus6

60

24

24minus6

00

00

00

188

49

30

0minus2

326

48

16

2011

762

64

331

74

96

10minus9

26

68

242

39

44

92

minus68

723

32minus6

00

00

00

188

772

78minus1

775

47

19

2012

755

017

320

383

92

minus95

44

829

23

94

49

2minus7

150

336

minus60

00

00

018

88

80

56

minus12

64

98

64

2013

747

46

732

318

224

minus98

3117

42

39

44

92

minus74

366

81

minus60

00

00

018

88

154

3minus7

924

776

2014

739

99

232

58

92

56

minus10

126

109

23

94

49

2minus7

73

1617

minus60

00

00

018

85

76

39minus3

55

52

33

20

1573

25

92

328

516

35minus1

04

298

92

23

94

49

2minus8

035

40

0minus6

00

00

00

188

162

354

81

75

6

2016

725

26

633

105

50

7minus1

07

42

78

92

39

44

92

minus83

48

29

7minus6

00

00

00

187

57

211

42

07

98

4

2017

718

014

333

510

17minus1

106

50

732

39

44

92

minus86

705

80

minus60

00

00

022

99

616

2224

86

42

05

94

99

43

33

0

RO

I =

109

464 Debate









































466 Debate





Million euro



2 Land 721

3 Building





5 Taxes 721


Total 16602



0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

FONSsa trend











454 Debate


copy






3


4


5

that is the


Φ

(

L

)

Y

t

=

Θ

(

L

)

ε

t

+

micro

+

δ

where

Y

t


Φ

(

L


Θ

(

L


micro

is the constant and

δ


δ


Y

t



=

minus


=

minus


=


=


=





copy





Figure 1


0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

ONSsa GMBsa

456 Debate


copy




Table 1



t


C

minus

0000208 0001564

minus

0132797 08944

DMMGMB

0006427

0003087 2082216 00381

DMM79M07

minus

0147334 0047701

minus

3088716 00022

DMM79M09 0185401 0046886 3954302 00001

DMM81M08 0132837 0044043 3016103 00028

DMM89M03 0288764 0054455 5302785 00000

DMM89M04

minus

0245634 0054288

minus

4524672 00000

DMM90M07

minus

0133927 0044557

minus

3005774 00029

DMM90M10 0146889 0044286 3316794 00010

DMM02M03 0166586 0054834 3038013 00026

DMM02M04

minus

0206736 0054706

minus

3779074 00002

AR(4) 0130412 0057628 2262995 00243

SAR(6) 0138867 0055518 2501289 00129

SAR(12)

minus

0215099 0054669

minus

3934534 00001

MA(1)

minus

0613014 0047332

minus

1295124 00000

R

2

0479

Adjusted

R

2

0456

F

-statistic 207

Prob(

F

-statistic) 000


Note




copy



6




=


=


=


=

09 Jarque-Bera Test

=

279

Table 2


No of Visitors


1998 1307065

1999 1109495

2000 948875

2001 930000

2002 851628

2003 869022

2004 909144

Total 7184463




Figure 2


160

200

240

280

320

78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

458 Debate


copy



Table 3



t


C 1514907 5009148 3024280 00000

TREND 0709139 0077975 9094391 00000

TRENDDMMGMB

0062654

0031711 1975773 00509

AR(1) 0824869 0063906 1290750 00000

SAR(3) 0263541 0109146 2414570 00175

R

2

0986

Adjusted

R

2

0986

F

-statistic 19296

Prob(

F

-statistic) 000


Note


Figure 3


800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

LHBiscay trend



copy



7



Figure 4


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Beds HBiscay

460 Debate


copy















462 Debate


Table

4R

OI

of t

he

GM

B t

o t

he

pu

blic

tre

asu

ries

Pu

rch

ase

of t

he

per

man

ent

colle

ctio

n n

ot i

ncl

ud

ed

Yea

rR

est

of

Sp

ain

+Fo

reig

nV

isit

ors

Taxe

sA

dd

itio

nal

Rev

en

ue

du

eto

GM

B (euro

)

De

fici

tG

MB

(euro

)A

mo

rtiz

atio

no

f th

eB

uild

ing

(euro)

GM

Brsquos

De

fici

t +

Am

ort

izat

ion

(euro)

Inve

stm

en

t in

GM

Brsquos

Bu

ildin

g+

Op

era

tive

Co

sts

(euro)

Res

idu

al V

alu

eo

f G

MB

in Y

ear

20

17 (euro

)

Cas

h-f

low

sP

ub

licTr

easu

ry (euro

)

Net

Pre

sen

tV

alu

e a

t an

8

Dis

cou

nt

Rat

e

minus126

49

50

18minus1

264

95

018

199

717

88

71

58

718

88

minus99

67

820

23

94

49

2minus7

573

328

minus17

014

40

minus118

58

372

7

199

89

018

7527

56

24

15minus5

48

42

362

39

44

92

minus30

89

74

324

472

672

minus99

156

53

1

199

99

208

81

293

59

44

1minus5

919

90

32

39

44

92

minus35

254

1125

83

40

30minus8

016

774

8

200

078

75

66

277

84

79

0minus5

818

225

23

94

49

2minus3

423

733

243

610

57

minus63

58

80

22

200

177

190

026

94

93

83

minus68

236

702

39

44

92

minus44

2917

822

520

20

5minus4

93

96

473

200

272

38

84

259

88

68

5minus7

60

725

32

39

44

92

minus52

127

61

207

759

24minus3

727

39

20

200

374

35

86

277

115

80

minus78

1913

22

39

44

92

minus54

246

40

222

86

94

0minus2

52

329

80

200

48

182

3029

46

58

82

minus75

34

776

23

94

49

2minus5

140

28

424

325

59

8minus1

30

64

125

200

58

100

47

298

202

71

minus77

60

819

23

94

49

2minus5

36

63

2724

45

39

44

minus17

372

17

200

68

019

47

3016

60

32minus7

99

36

44

23

94

49

2minus5

59

915

224

56

68

80

87

99

09

7

200

779

39

2730

50

189

5minus8

233

45

32

39

44

92

minus58

389

61

246

62

93

418

59

30

88

200

878

59

88

308

280

25minus8

48

04

57

23

94

49

2minus6

08

59

64

247

42

06

027

69

06

92

200

977

812

831

144

58

2minus8

73

48

702

39

44

92

minus63

40

378

248

04

20

336

135

55

7

2010

770

34

73

145

1724

minus89

96

917

23

94

49

2minus6

60

24

2424

84

93

00

43

96

90

92

2011

762

64

331

74

96

10minus9

26

68

242

39

44

92

minus68

723

3224

877

278

512

305

33

2012

755

017

320

383

92

minus95

44

829

23

94

49

2minus7

150

336

248

88

05

65

79

57

00

2

2013

747

46

732

318

224

minus98

3117

42

39

44

92

minus74

366

81

248

815

43

64

183

58

4

2014

739

99

232

58

92

56

minus10

126

109

23

94

49

2minus7

731

617

248

57

639

69

94

339

8

2015

732

59

232

85

1635

minus10

429

89

22

39

44

92

minus80

354

00

248

162

3575

26

76

77

2016

725

26

633

105

50

7minus1

07

42

78

92

39

44

92

minus83

48

29

724

75

72

118

018

58

39

2017

718

014

333

510

17minus1

106

50

732

39

44

92

minus86

705

80

65

30

08

88

89

98

132

59

67

37

05

0

RO

I =

157



Table

5R

OI

of t

he

GM

B t

o t

he

pu

blic

tre

asu

ries

Pu

rch

ase

of t

he

per

man

ent

colle

ctio

n i

ncl

ud

ed

Yea

rR

est

of

Sp

ain

+Fo

reig

nV

isit

ors

Taxe

sA

dd

itio

nal

Rev

en

ue

du

eto

GM

B (euro

)

De

fici

tG

MB

(euro

)A

mo

rtiz

atio

no

f th

eB

uild

ing

(euro

)

GM

Brsquos

De

fici

t +

Am

ort

izat

ion

(euro)

Inve

stm

en

t in

GM

Brsquos

Bu

ildin

g +

Op

era

tive

Co

sts

(euro)

Pu

rch

ase

of

the

Pe

rman

en

tC

olle

ctio

n

Res

idu

al V

alu

eo

f G

MB

in Y

ear

20

17 (euro

)

Cas

h-f

low

sP

ub

licTr

easu

ry (euro

)

Net

Pre

sen

tV

alu

e a

tan

8

Dis

cou

nt

Rat

e

minus126

49

50

18minus3

23

104

11minus1

58

80

54

29

199

717

88

71

58

718

88

minus99

67

820

23

94

49

2minus7

573

328

minus42

40

00

0minus5

94

144

0minus1

52

135

89

1

199

89

018

7527

56

24

15minus5

48

42

362

39

44

92

minus30

89

74

3minus4

24

00

00

202

326

72minus1

360

745

43

199

99

208

81

293

59

44

1minus5

919

90

32

39

44

92

minus35

254

11minus4

24

00

00

215

94

030

minus120

20

22

86

200

078

75

66

277

84

79

0minus5

818

225

23

94

49

2minus3

423

733

minus42

40

00

020

1210

57

minus10

65

08

233

200

177

190

026

94

93

83

minus68

236

702

39

44

92

minus44

2917

8minus4

24

00

00

182

80

20

5minus9

49

88

60

3

200

272

38

84

259

88

68

5minus7

60

725

32

39

44

92

minus52

127

61

minus42

40

00

016

535

924

minus85

34

00

51

200

374

35

86

277

115

80

minus78

1913

22

39

44

92

minus54

246

40

minus42

40

00

018

04

69

40

minus75

58

98

50

200

48

182

3029

46

58

82

minus75

34

776

23

94

49

2minus5

140

28

4minus6

00

00

00

183

255

98

minus66

422

48

9

200

58

100

47

298

202

71

minus77

60

819

23

94

49

2minus5

36

63

27minus6

00

00

00

184

53

94

4minus5

78

747

42

200

68

019

47

3016

60

32minus7

99

36

44

23

94

49

2minus5

59

915

2minus6

00

00

00

185

66

88

0minus4

99

117

25

200

779

39

2730

50

189

5minus8

233

45

32

39

44

92

minus58

389

61

minus60

00

00

018

66

29

34

minus42

50

04

17

200

878

59

88

308

280

25minus8

48

04

57

23

94

49

2minus6

08

59

64

minus60

00

00

018

74

20

60

minus35

60

90

00

200

977

812

83

114

45

82

minus87

34

870

23

94

49

2minus6

34

03

78minus6

00

00

00

188

04

20

3minus2

92

06

90

2

2010

770

34

73

145

1724

minus89

96

917

23

94

49

2minus6

60

24

24minus6

00

00

00

188

49

30

0minus2

326

48

16

2011

762

64

331

74

96

10minus9

26

68

242

39

44

92

minus68

723

32minus6

00

00

00

188

772

78minus1

775

47

19

2012

755

017

320

383

92

minus95

44

829

23

94

49

2minus7

150

336

minus60

00

00

018

88

80

56

minus12

64

98

64

2013

747

46

732

318

224

minus98

3117

42

39

44

92

minus74

366

81

minus60

00

00

018

88

154

3minus7

924

776

2014

739

99

232

58

92

56

minus10

126

109

23

94

49

2minus7

73

1617

minus60

00

00

018

85

76

39minus3

55

52

33

20

1573

25

92

328

516

35minus1

04

298

92

23

94

49

2minus8

035

40

0minus6

00

00

00

188

162

354

81

75

6

2016

725

26

633

105

50

7minus1

07

42

78

92

39

44

92

minus83

48

29

7minus6

00

00

00

187

57

211

42

07

98

4

2017

718

014

333

510

17minus1

106

50

732

39

44

92

minus86

705

80

minus60

00

00

022

99

616

2224

86

42

05

94

99

43

33

0

RO

I =

109

464 Debate









































466 Debate





Million euro



2 Land 721

3 Building





5 Taxes 721


Total 16602



0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

FONSsa trend













copy





Figure 1


0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

ONSsa GMBsa

456 Debate


copy




Table 1



t


C

minus

0000208 0001564

minus

0132797 08944

DMMGMB

0006427

0003087 2082216 00381

DMM79M07

minus

0147334 0047701

minus

3088716 00022

DMM79M09 0185401 0046886 3954302 00001

DMM81M08 0132837 0044043 3016103 00028

DMM89M03 0288764 0054455 5302785 00000

DMM89M04

minus

0245634 0054288

minus

4524672 00000

DMM90M07

minus

0133927 0044557

minus

3005774 00029

DMM90M10 0146889 0044286 3316794 00010

DMM02M03 0166586 0054834 3038013 00026

DMM02M04

minus

0206736 0054706

minus

3779074 00002

AR(4) 0130412 0057628 2262995 00243

SAR(6) 0138867 0055518 2501289 00129

SAR(12)

minus

0215099 0054669

minus

3934534 00001

MA(1)

minus

0613014 0047332

minus

1295124 00000

R

2

0479

Adjusted

R

2

0456

F

-statistic 207

Prob(

F

-statistic) 000


Note




copy



6




=


=


=


=

09 Jarque-Bera Test

=

279

Table 2


No of Visitors


1998 1307065

1999 1109495

2000 948875

2001 930000

2002 851628

2003 869022

2004 909144

Total 7184463




Figure 2


160

200

240

280

320

78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

458 Debate


copy



Table 3



t


C 1514907 5009148 3024280 00000

TREND 0709139 0077975 9094391 00000

TRENDDMMGMB

0062654

0031711 1975773 00509

AR(1) 0824869 0063906 1290750 00000

SAR(3) 0263541 0109146 2414570 00175

R

2

0986

Adjusted

R

2

0986

F

-statistic 19296

Prob(

F

-statistic) 000


Note


Figure 3


800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

LHBiscay trend



copy



7



Figure 4


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Beds HBiscay

460 Debate


copy















462 Debate


Table

4R

OI

of t

he

GM

B t

o t

he

pu

blic

tre

asu

ries

Pu

rch

ase

of t

he

per

man

ent

colle

ctio

n n

ot i

ncl

ud

ed

Yea

rR

est

of

Sp

ain

+Fo

reig

nV

isit

ors

Taxe

sA

dd

itio

nal

Rev

en

ue

du

eto

GM

B (euro

)

De

fici

tG

MB

(euro

)A

mo

rtiz

atio

no

f th

eB

uild

ing

(euro)

GM

Brsquos

De

fici

t +

Am

ort

izat

ion

(euro)

Inve

stm

en

t in

GM

Brsquos

Bu

ildin

g+

Op

era

tive

Co

sts

(euro)

Res

idu

al V

alu

eo

f G

MB

in Y

ear

20

17 (euro

)

Cas

h-f

low

sP

ub

licTr

easu

ry (euro

)

Net

Pre

sen

tV

alu

e a

t an

8

Dis

cou

nt

Rat

e

minus126

49

50

18minus1

264

95

018

199

717

88

71

58

718

88

minus99

67

820

23

94

49

2minus7

573

328

minus17

014

40

minus118

58

372

7

199

89

018

7527

56

24

15minus5

48

42

362

39

44

92

minus30

89

74

324

472

672

minus99

156

53

1

199

99

208

81

293

59

44

1minus5

919

90

32

39

44

92

minus35

254

1125

83

40

30minus8

016

774

8

200

078

75

66

277

84

79

0minus5

818

225

23

94

49

2minus3

423

733

243

610

57

minus63

58

80

22

200

177

190

026

94

93

83

minus68

236

702

39

44

92

minus44

2917

822

520

20

5minus4

93

96

473

200

272

38

84

259

88

68

5minus7

60

725

32

39

44

92

minus52

127

61

207

759

24minus3

727

39

20

200

374

35

86

277

115

80

minus78

1913

22

39

44

92

minus54

246

40

222

86

94

0minus2

52

329

80

200

48

182

3029

46

58

82

minus75

34

776

23

94

49

2minus5

140

28

424

325

59

8minus1

30

64

125

200

58

100

47

298

202

71

minus77

60

819

23

94

49

2minus5

36

63

2724

45

39

44

minus17

372

17

200

68

019

47

3016

60

32minus7

99

36

44

23

94

49

2minus5

59

915

224

56

68

80

87

99

09

7

200

779

39

2730

50

189

5minus8

233

45

32

39

44

92

minus58

389

61

246

62

93

418

59

30

88

200

878

59

88

308

280

25minus8

48

04

57

23

94

49

2minus6

08

59

64

247

42

06

027

69

06

92

200

977

812

831

144

58

2minus8

73

48

702

39

44

92

minus63

40

378

248

04

20

336

135

55

7

2010

770

34

73

145

1724

minus89

96

917

23

94

49

2minus6

60

24

2424

84

93

00

43

96

90

92

2011

762

64

331

74

96

10minus9

26

68

242

39

44

92

minus68

723

3224

877

278

512

305

33

2012

755

017

320

383

92

minus95

44

829

23

94

49

2minus7

150

336

248

88

05

65

79

57

00

2

2013

747

46

732

318

224

minus98

3117

42

39

44

92

minus74

366

81

248

815

43

64

183

58

4

2014

739

99

232

58

92

56

minus10

126

109

23

94

49

2minus7

731

617

248

57

639

69

94

339

8

2015

732

59

232

85

1635

minus10

429

89

22

39

44

92

minus80

354

00

248

162

3575

26

76

77

2016

725

26

633

105

50

7minus1

07

42

78

92

39

44

92

minus83

48

29

724

75

72

118

018

58

39

2017

718

014

333

510

17minus1

106

50

732

39

44

92

minus86

705

80

65

30

08

88

89

98

132

59

67

37

05

0

RO

I =

157



Table

5R

OI

of t

he

GM

B t

o t

he

pu

blic

tre

asu

ries

Pu

rch

ase

of t

he

per

man

ent

colle

ctio

n i

ncl

ud

ed

Yea

rR

est

of

Sp

ain

+Fo

reig

nV

isit

ors

Taxe

sA

dd

itio

nal

Rev

en

ue

du

eto

GM

B (euro

)

De

fici

tG

MB

(euro

)A

mo

rtiz

atio

no

f th

eB

uild

ing

(euro

)

GM

Brsquos

De

fici

t +

Am

ort

izat

ion

(euro)

Inve

stm

en

t in

GM

Brsquos

Bu

ildin

g +

Op

era

tive

Co

sts

(euro)

Pu

rch

ase

of

the

Pe

rman

en

tC

olle

ctio

n

Res

idu

al V

alu

eo

f G

MB

in Y

ear

20

17 (euro

)

Cas

h-f

low

sP

ub

licTr

easu

ry (euro

)

Net

Pre

sen

tV

alu

e a

tan

8

Dis

cou

nt

Rat

e

minus126

49

50

18minus3

23

104

11minus1

58

80

54

29

199

717

88

71

58

718

88

minus99

67

820

23

94

49

2minus7

573

328

minus42

40

00

0minus5

94

144

0minus1

52

135

89

1

199

89

018

7527

56

24

15minus5

48

42

362

39

44

92

minus30

89

74

3minus4

24

00

00

202

326

72minus1

360

745

43

199

99

208

81

293

59

44

1minus5

919

90

32

39

44

92

minus35

254

11minus4

24

00

00

215

94

030

minus120

20

22

86

200

078

75

66

277

84

79

0minus5

818

225

23

94

49

2minus3

423

733

minus42

40

00

020

1210

57

minus10

65

08

233

200

177

190

026

94

93

83

minus68

236

702

39

44

92

minus44

2917

8minus4

24

00

00

182

80

20

5minus9

49

88

60

3

200

272

38

84

259

88

68

5minus7

60

725

32

39

44

92

minus52

127

61

minus42

40

00

016

535

924

minus85

34

00

51

200

374

35

86

277

115

80

minus78

1913

22

39

44

92

minus54

246

40

minus42

40

00

018

04

69

40

minus75

58

98

50

200

48

182

3029

46

58

82

minus75

34

776

23

94

49

2minus5

140

28

4minus6

00

00

00

183

255

98

minus66

422

48

9

200

58

100

47

298

202

71

minus77

60

819

23

94

49

2minus5

36

63

27minus6

00

00

00

184

53

94

4minus5

78

747

42

200

68

019

47

3016

60

32minus7

99

36

44

23

94

49

2minus5

59

915

2minus6

00

00

00

185

66

88

0minus4

99

117

25

200

779

39

2730

50

189

5minus8

233

45

32

39

44

92

minus58

389

61

minus60

00

00

018

66

29

34

minus42

50

04

17

200

878

59

88

308

280

25minus8

48

04

57

23

94

49

2minus6

08

59

64

minus60

00

00

018

74

20

60

minus35

60

90

00

200

977

812

83

114

45

82

minus87

34

870

23

94

49

2minus6

34

03

78minus6

00

00

00

188

04

20

3minus2

92

06

90

2

2010

770

34

73

145

1724

minus89

96

917

23

94

49

2minus6

60

24

24minus6

00

00

00

188

49

30

0minus2

326

48

16

2011

762

64

331

74

96

10minus9

26

68

242

39

44

92

minus68

723

32minus6

00

00

00

188

772

78minus1

775

47

19

2012

755

017

320

383

92

minus95

44

829

23

94

49

2minus7

150

336

minus60

00

00

018

88

80

56

minus12

64

98

64

2013

747

46

732

318

224

minus98

3117

42

39

44

92

minus74

366

81

minus60

00

00

018

88

154

3minus7

924

776

2014

739

99

232

58

92

56

minus10

126

109

23

94

49

2minus7

73

1617

minus60

00

00

018

85

76

39minus3

55

52

33

20

1573

25

92

328

516

35minus1

04

298

92

23

94

49

2minus8

035

40

0minus6

00

00

00

188

162

354

81

75

6

2016

725

26

633

105

50

7minus1

07

42

78

92

39

44

92

minus83

48

29

7minus6

00

00

00

187

57

211

42

07

98

4

2017

718

014

333

510

17minus1

106

50

732

39

44

92

minus86

705

80

minus60

00

00

022

99

616

2224

86

42

05

94

99

43

33

0

RO

I =

109

464 Debate









































466 Debate





Million euro



2 Land 721

3 Building





5 Taxes 721


Total 16602



0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

FONSsa trend











456 Debate


copy




Table 1



t


C

minus

0000208 0001564

minus

0132797 08944

DMMGMB

0006427

0003087 2082216 00381

DMM79M07

minus

0147334 0047701

minus

3088716 00022

DMM79M09 0185401 0046886 3954302 00001

DMM81M08 0132837 0044043 3016103 00028

DMM89M03 0288764 0054455 5302785 00000

DMM89M04

minus

0245634 0054288

minus

4524672 00000

DMM90M07

minus

0133927 0044557

minus

3005774 00029

DMM90M10 0146889 0044286 3316794 00010

DMM02M03 0166586 0054834 3038013 00026

DMM02M04

minus

0206736 0054706

minus

3779074 00002

AR(4) 0130412 0057628 2262995 00243

SAR(6) 0138867 0055518 2501289 00129

SAR(12)

minus

0215099 0054669

minus

3934534 00001

MA(1)

minus

0613014 0047332

minus

1295124 00000

R

2

0479

Adjusted

R

2

0456

F

-statistic 207

Prob(

F

-statistic) 000


Note




copy



6




=


=


=


=

09 Jarque-Bera Test

=

279

Table 2


No of Visitors


1998 1307065

1999 1109495

2000 948875

2001 930000

2002 851628

2003 869022

2004 909144

Total 7184463




Figure 2


160

200

240

280

320

78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

458 Debate


copy



Table 3



t


C 1514907 5009148 3024280 00000

TREND 0709139 0077975 9094391 00000

TRENDDMMGMB

0062654

0031711 1975773 00509

AR(1) 0824869 0063906 1290750 00000

SAR(3) 0263541 0109146 2414570 00175

R

2

0986

Adjusted

R

2

0986

F

-statistic 19296

Prob(

F

-statistic) 000


Note


Figure 3


800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

LHBiscay trend



copy



7



Figure 4


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Beds HBiscay

460 Debate


copy















462 Debate


Table

4R

OI

of t

he

GM

B t

o t

he

pu

blic

tre

asu

ries

Pu

rch

ase

of t

he

per

man

ent

colle

ctio

n n

ot i

ncl

ud

ed

Yea

rR

est

of

Sp

ain

+Fo

reig

nV

isit

ors

Taxe

sA

dd

itio

nal

Rev

en

ue

du

eto

GM

B (euro

)

De

fici

tG

MB

(euro

)A

mo

rtiz

atio

no

f th

eB

uild

ing

(euro)

GM

Brsquos

De

fici

t +

Am

ort

izat

ion

(euro)

Inve

stm

en

t in

GM

Brsquos

Bu

ildin

g+

Op

era

tive

Co

sts

(euro)

Res

idu

al V

alu

eo

f G

MB

in Y

ear

20

17 (euro

)

Cas

h-f

low

sP

ub

licTr

easu

ry (euro

)

Net

Pre

sen

tV

alu

e a

t an

8

Dis

cou

nt

Rat

e

minus126

49

50

18minus1

264

95

018

199

717

88

71

58

718

88

minus99

67

820

23

94

49

2minus7

573

328

minus17

014

40

minus118

58

372

7

199

89

018

7527

56

24

15minus5

48

42

362

39

44

92

minus30

89

74

324

472

672

minus99

156

53

1

199

99

208

81

293

59

44

1minus5

919

90

32

39

44

92

minus35

254

1125

83

40

30minus8

016

774

8

200

078

75

66

277

84

79

0minus5

818

225

23

94

49

2minus3

423

733

243

610

57

minus63

58

80

22

200

177

190

026

94

93

83

minus68

236

702

39

44

92

minus44

2917

822

520

20

5minus4

93

96

473

200

272

38

84

259

88

68

5minus7

60

725

32

39

44

92

minus52

127

61

207

759

24minus3

727

39

20

200

374

35

86

277

115

80

minus78

1913

22

39

44

92

minus54

246

40

222

86

94

0minus2

52

329

80

200

48

182

3029

46

58

82

minus75

34

776

23

94

49

2minus5

140

28

424

325

59

8minus1

30

64

125

200

58

100

47

298

202

71

minus77

60

819

23

94

49

2minus5

36

63

2724

45

39

44

minus17

372

17

200

68

019

47

3016

60

32minus7

99

36

44

23

94

49

2minus5

59

915

224

56

68

80

87

99

09

7

200

779

39

2730

50

189

5minus8

233

45

32

39

44

92

minus58

389

61

246

62

93

418

59

30

88

200

878

59

88

308

280

25minus8

48

04

57

23

94

49

2minus6

08

59

64

247

42

06

027

69

06

92

200

977

812

831

144

58

2minus8

73

48

702

39

44

92

minus63

40

378

248

04

20

336

135

55

7

2010

770

34

73

145

1724

minus89

96

917

23

94

49

2minus6

60

24

2424

84

93

00

43

96

90

92

2011

762

64

331

74

96

10minus9

26

68

242

39

44

92

minus68

723

3224

877

278

512

305

33

2012

755

017

320

383

92

minus95

44

829

23

94

49

2minus7

150

336

248

88

05

65

79

57

00

2

2013

747

46

732

318

224

minus98

3117

42

39

44

92

minus74

366

81

248

815

43

64

183

58

4

2014

739

99

232

58

92

56

minus10

126

109

23

94

49

2minus7

731

617

248

57

639

69

94

339

8

2015

732

59

232

85

1635

minus10

429

89

22

39

44

92

minus80

354

00

248

162

3575

26

76

77

2016

725

26

633

105

50

7minus1

07

42

78

92

39

44

92

minus83

48

29

724

75

72

118

018

58

39

2017

718

014

333

510

17minus1

106

50

732

39

44

92

minus86

705

80

65

30

08

88

89

98

132

59

67

37

05

0

RO

I =

157



Table

5R

OI

of t

he

GM

B t

o t

he

pu

blic

tre

asu

ries

Pu

rch

ase

of t

he

per

man

ent

colle

ctio

n i

ncl

ud

ed

Yea

rR

est

of

Sp

ain

+Fo

reig

nV

isit

ors

Taxe

sA

dd

itio

nal

Rev

en

ue

du

eto

GM

B (euro

)

De

fici

tG

MB

(euro

)A

mo

rtiz

atio

no

f th

eB

uild

ing

(euro

)

GM

Brsquos

De

fici

t +

Am

ort

izat

ion

(euro)

Inve

stm

en

t in

GM

Brsquos

Bu

ildin

g +

Op

era

tive

Co

sts

(euro)

Pu

rch

ase

of

the

Pe

rman

en

tC

olle

ctio

n

Res

idu

al V

alu

eo

f G

MB

in Y

ear

20

17 (euro

)

Cas

h-f

low

sP

ub

licTr

easu

ry (euro

)

Net

Pre

sen

tV

alu

e a

tan

8

Dis

cou

nt

Rat

e

minus126

49

50

18minus3

23

104

11minus1

58

80

54

29

199

717

88

71

58

718

88

minus99

67

820

23

94

49

2minus7

573

328

minus42

40

00

0minus5

94

144

0minus1

52

135

89

1

199

89

018

7527

56

24

15minus5

48

42

362

39

44

92

minus30

89

74

3minus4

24

00

00

202

326

72minus1

360

745

43

199

99

208

81

293

59

44

1minus5

919

90

32

39

44

92

minus35

254

11minus4

24

00

00

215

94

030

minus120

20

22

86

200

078

75

66

277

84

79

0minus5

818

225

23

94

49

2minus3

423

733

minus42

40

00

020

1210

57

minus10

65

08

233

200

177

190

026

94

93

83

minus68

236

702

39

44

92

minus44

2917

8minus4

24

00

00

182

80

20

5minus9

49

88

60

3

200

272

38

84

259

88

68

5minus7

60

725

32

39

44

92

minus52

127

61

minus42

40

00

016

535

924

minus85

34

00

51

200

374

35

86

277

115

80

minus78

1913

22

39

44

92

minus54

246

40

minus42

40

00

018

04

69

40

minus75

58

98

50

200

48

182

3029

46

58

82

minus75

34

776

23

94

49

2minus5

140

28

4minus6

00

00

00

183

255

98

minus66

422

48

9

200

58

100

47

298

202

71

minus77

60

819

23

94

49

2minus5

36

63

27minus6

00

00

00

184

53

94

4minus5

78

747

42

200

68

019

47

3016

60

32minus7

99

36

44

23

94

49

2minus5

59

915

2minus6

00

00

00

185

66

88

0minus4

99

117

25

200

779

39

2730

50

189

5minus8

233

45

32

39

44

92

minus58

389

61

minus60

00

00

018

66

29

34

minus42

50

04

17

200

878

59

88

308

280

25minus8

48

04

57

23

94

49

2minus6

08

59

64

minus60

00

00

018

74

20

60

minus35

60

90

00

200

977

812

83

114

45

82

minus87

34

870

23

94

49

2minus6

34

03

78minus6

00

00

00

188

04

20

3minus2

92

06

90

2

2010

770

34

73

145

1724

minus89

96

917

23

94

49

2minus6

60

24

24minus6

00

00

00

188

49

30

0minus2

326

48

16

2011

762

64

331

74

96

10minus9

26

68

242

39

44

92

minus68

723

32minus6

00

00

00

188

772

78minus1

775

47

19

2012

755

017

320

383

92

minus95

44

829

23

94

49

2minus7

150

336

minus60

00

00

018

88

80

56

minus12

64

98

64

2013

747

46

732

318

224

minus98

3117

42

39

44

92

minus74

366

81

minus60

00

00

018

88

154

3minus7

924

776

2014

739

99

232

58

92

56

minus10

126

109

23

94

49

2minus7

73

1617

minus60

00

00

018

85

76

39minus3

55

52

33

20

1573

25

92

328

516

35minus1

04

298

92

23

94

49

2minus8

035

40

0minus6

00

00

00

188

162

354

81

75

6

2016

725

26

633

105

50

7minus1

07

42

78

92

39

44

92

minus83

48

29

7minus6

00

00

00

187

57

211

42

07

98

4

2017

718

014

333

510

17minus1

106

50

732

39

44

92

minus86

705

80

minus60

00

00

022

99

616

2224

86

42

05

94

99

43

33

0

RO

I =

109

464 Debate









































466 Debate





Million euro



2 Land 721

3 Building





5 Taxes 721


Total 16602



0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

FONSsa trend













copy



6




=


=


=


=

09 Jarque-Bera Test

=

279

Table 2


No of Visitors


1998 1307065

1999 1109495

2000 948875

2001 930000

2002 851628

2003 869022

2004 909144

Total 7184463




Figure 2


160

200

240

280

320

78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

458 Debate


copy



Table 3



t


C 1514907 5009148 3024280 00000

TREND 0709139 0077975 9094391 00000

TRENDDMMGMB

0062654

0031711 1975773 00509

AR(1) 0824869 0063906 1290750 00000

SAR(3) 0263541 0109146 2414570 00175

R

2

0986

Adjusted

R

2

0986

F

-statistic 19296

Prob(

F

-statistic) 000


Note


Figure 3


800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

LHBiscay trend



copy



7



Figure 4


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Beds HBiscay

460 Debate


copy















462 Debate


Table

4R

OI

of t

he

GM

B t

o t

he

pu

blic

tre

asu

ries

Pu

rch

ase

of t

he

per

man

ent

colle

ctio

n n

ot i

ncl

ud

ed

Yea

rR

est

of

Sp

ain

+Fo

reig

nV

isit

ors

Taxe

sA

dd

itio

nal

Rev

en

ue

du

eto

GM

B (euro

)

De

fici

tG

MB

(euro

)A

mo

rtiz

atio

no

f th

eB

uild

ing

(euro)

GM

Brsquos

De

fici

t +

Am

ort

izat

ion

(euro)

Inve

stm

en

t in

GM

Brsquos

Bu

ildin

g+

Op

era

tive

Co

sts

(euro)

Res

idu

al V

alu

eo

f G

MB

in Y

ear

20

17 (euro

)

Cas

h-f

low

sP

ub

licTr

easu

ry (euro

)

Net

Pre

sen

tV

alu

e a

t an

8

Dis

cou

nt

Rat

e

minus126

49

50

18minus1

264

95

018

199

717

88

71

58

718

88

minus99

67

820

23

94

49

2minus7

573

328

minus17

014

40

minus118

58

372

7

199

89

018

7527

56

24

15minus5

48

42

362

39

44

92

minus30

89

74

324

472

672

minus99

156

53

1

199

99

208

81

293

59

44

1minus5

919

90

32

39

44

92

minus35

254

1125

83

40

30minus8

016

774

8

200

078

75

66

277

84

79

0minus5

818

225

23

94

49

2minus3

423

733

243

610

57

minus63

58

80

22

200

177

190

026

94

93

83

minus68

236

702

39

44

92

minus44

2917

822

520

20

5minus4

93

96

473

200

272

38

84

259

88

68

5minus7

60

725

32

39

44

92

minus52

127

61

207

759

24minus3

727

39

20

200

374

35

86

277

115

80

minus78

1913

22

39

44

92

minus54

246

40

222

86

94

0minus2

52

329

80

200

48

182

3029

46

58

82

minus75

34

776

23

94

49

2minus5

140

28

424

325

59

8minus1

30

64

125

200

58

100

47

298

202

71

minus77

60

819

23

94

49

2minus5

36

63

2724

45

39

44

minus17

372

17

200

68

019

47

3016

60

32minus7

99

36

44

23

94

49

2minus5

59

915

224

56

68

80

87

99

09

7

200

779

39

2730

50

189

5minus8

233

45

32

39

44

92

minus58

389

61

246

62

93

418

59

30

88

200

878

59

88

308

280

25minus8

48

04

57

23

94

49

2minus6

08

59

64

247

42

06

027

69

06

92

200

977

812

831

144

58

2minus8

73

48

702

39

44

92

minus63

40

378

248

04

20

336

135

55

7

2010

770

34

73

145

1724

minus89

96

917

23

94

49

2minus6

60

24

2424

84

93

00

43

96

90

92

2011

762

64

331

74

96

10minus9

26

68

242

39

44

92

minus68

723

3224

877

278

512

305

33

2012

755

017

320

383

92

minus95

44

829

23

94

49

2minus7

150

336

248

88

05

65

79

57

00

2

2013

747

46

732

318

224

minus98

3117

42

39

44

92

minus74

366

81

248

815

43

64

183

58

4

2014

739

99

232

58

92

56

minus10

126

109

23

94

49

2minus7

731

617

248

57

639

69

94

339

8

2015

732

59

232

85

1635

minus10

429

89

22

39

44

92

minus80

354

00

248

162

3575

26

76

77

2016

725

26

633

105

50

7minus1

07

42

78

92

39

44

92

minus83

48

29

724

75

72

118

018

58

39

2017

718

014

333

510

17minus1

106

50

732

39

44

92

minus86

705

80

65

30

08

88

89

98

132

59

67

37

05

0

RO

I =

157



Table

5R

OI

of t

he

GM

B t

o t

he

pu

blic

tre

asu

ries

Pu

rch

ase

of t

he

per

man

ent

colle

ctio

n i

ncl

ud

ed

Yea

rR

est

of

Sp

ain

+Fo

reig

nV

isit

ors

Taxe

sA

dd

itio

nal

Rev

en

ue

du

eto

GM

B (euro

)

De

fici

tG

MB

(euro

)A

mo

rtiz

atio

no

f th

eB

uild

ing

(euro

)

GM

Brsquos

De

fici

t +

Am

ort

izat

ion

(euro)

Inve

stm

en

t in

GM

Brsquos

Bu

ildin

g +

Op

era

tive

Co

sts

(euro)

Pu

rch

ase

of

the

Pe

rman

en

tC

olle

ctio

n

Res

idu

al V

alu

eo

f G

MB

in Y

ear

20

17 (euro

)

Cas

h-f

low

sP

ub

licTr

easu

ry (euro

)

Net

Pre

sen

tV

alu

e a

tan

8

Dis

cou

nt

Rat

e

minus126

49

50

18minus3

23

104

11minus1

58

80

54

29

199

717

88

71

58

718

88

minus99

67

820

23

94

49

2minus7

573

328

minus42

40

00

0minus5

94

144

0minus1

52

135

89

1

199

89

018

7527

56

24

15minus5

48

42

362

39

44

92

minus30

89

74

3minus4

24

00

00

202

326

72minus1

360

745

43

199

99

208

81

293

59

44

1minus5

919

90

32

39

44

92

minus35

254

11minus4

24

00

00

215

94

030

minus120

20

22

86

200

078

75

66

277

84

79

0minus5

818

225

23

94

49

2minus3

423

733

minus42

40

00

020

1210

57

minus10

65

08

233

200

177

190

026

94

93

83

minus68

236

702

39

44

92

minus44

2917

8minus4

24

00

00

182

80

20

5minus9

49

88

60

3

200

272

38

84

259

88

68

5minus7

60

725

32

39

44

92

minus52

127

61

minus42

40

00

016

535

924

minus85

34

00

51

200

374

35

86

277

115

80

minus78

1913

22

39

44

92

minus54

246

40

minus42

40

00

018

04

69

40

minus75

58

98

50

200

48

182

3029

46

58

82

minus75

34

776

23

94

49

2minus5

140

28

4minus6

00

00

00

183

255

98

minus66

422

48

9

200

58

100

47

298

202

71

minus77

60

819

23

94

49

2minus5

36

63

27minus6

00

00

00

184

53

94

4minus5

78

747

42

200

68

019

47

3016

60

32minus7

99

36

44

23

94

49

2minus5

59

915

2minus6

00

00

00

185

66

88

0minus4

99

117

25

200

779

39

2730

50

189

5minus8

233

45

32

39

44

92

minus58

389

61

minus60

00

00

018

66

29

34

minus42

50

04

17

200

878

59

88

308

280

25minus8

48

04

57

23

94

49

2minus6

08

59

64

minus60

00

00

018

74

20

60

minus35

60

90

00

200

977

812

83

114

45

82

minus87

34

870

23

94

49

2minus6

34

03

78minus6

00

00

00

188

04

20

3minus2

92

06

90

2

2010

770

34

73

145

1724

minus89

96

917

23

94

49

2minus6

60

24

24minus6

00

00

00

188

49

30

0minus2

326

48

16

2011

762

64

331

74

96

10minus9

26

68

242

39

44

92

minus68

723

32minus6

00

00

00

188

772

78minus1

775

47

19

2012

755

017

320

383

92

minus95

44

829

23

94

49

2minus7

150

336

minus60

00

00

018

88

80

56

minus12

64

98

64

2013

747

46

732

318

224

minus98

3117

42

39

44

92

minus74

366

81

minus60

00

00

018

88

154

3minus7

924

776

2014

739

99

232

58

92

56

minus10

126

109

23

94

49

2minus7

73

1617

minus60

00

00

018

85

76

39minus3

55

52

33

20

1573

25

92

328

516

35minus1

04

298

92

23

94

49

2minus8

035

40

0minus6

00

00

00

188

162

354

81

75

6

2016

725

26

633

105

50

7minus1

07

42

78

92

39

44

92

minus83

48

29

7minus6

00

00

00

187

57

211

42

07

98

4

2017

718

014

333

510

17minus1

106

50

732

39

44

92

minus86

705

80

minus60

00

00

022

99

616

2224

86

42

05

94

99

43

33

0

RO

I =

109

464 Debate









































466 Debate





Million euro



2 Land 721

3 Building





5 Taxes 721


Total 16602



0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

FONSsa trend











458 Debate


copy



Table 3



t


C 1514907 5009148 3024280 00000

TREND 0709139 0077975 9094391 00000

TRENDDMMGMB

0062654

0031711 1975773 00509

AR(1) 0824869 0063906 1290750 00000

SAR(3) 0263541 0109146 2414570 00175

R

2

0986

Adjusted

R

2

0986

F

-statistic 19296

Prob(

F

-statistic) 000


Note


Figure 3


800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

LHBiscay trend



copy



7



Figure 4


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Beds HBiscay

460 Debate


copy















462 Debate


Table

4R

OI

of t

he

GM

B t

o t

he

pu

blic

tre

asu

ries

Pu

rch

ase

of t

he

per

man

ent

colle

ctio

n n

ot i

ncl

ud

ed

Yea

rR

est

of

Sp

ain

+Fo

reig

nV

isit

ors

Taxe

sA

dd

itio

nal

Rev

en

ue

du

eto

GM

B (euro

)

De

fici

tG

MB

(euro

)A

mo

rtiz

atio

no

f th

eB

uild

ing

(euro)

GM

Brsquos

De

fici

t +

Am

ort

izat

ion

(euro)

Inve

stm

en

t in

GM

Brsquos

Bu

ildin

g+

Op

era

tive

Co

sts

(euro)

Res

idu

al V

alu

eo

f G

MB

in Y

ear

20

17 (euro

)

Cas

h-f

low

sP

ub

licTr

easu

ry (euro

)

Net

Pre

sen

tV

alu

e a

t an

8

Dis

cou

nt

Rat

e

minus126

49

50

18minus1

264

95

018

199

717

88

71

58

718

88

minus99

67

820

23

94

49

2minus7

573

328

minus17

014

40

minus118

58

372

7

199

89

018

7527

56

24

15minus5

48

42

362

39

44

92

minus30

89

74

324

472

672

minus99

156

53

1

199

99

208

81

293

59

44

1minus5

919

90

32

39

44

92

minus35

254

1125

83

40

30minus8

016

774

8

200

078

75

66

277

84

79

0minus5

818

225

23

94

49

2minus3

423

733

243

610

57

minus63

58

80

22

200

177

190

026

94

93

83

minus68

236

702

39

44

92

minus44

2917

822

520

20

5minus4

93

96

473

200

272

38

84

259

88

68

5minus7

60

725

32

39

44

92

minus52

127

61

207

759

24minus3

727

39

20

200

374

35

86

277

115

80

minus78

1913

22

39

44

92

minus54

246

40

222

86

94

0minus2

52

329

80

200

48

182

3029

46

58

82

minus75

34

776

23

94

49

2minus5

140

28

424

325

59

8minus1

30

64

125

200

58

100

47

298

202

71

minus77

60

819

23

94

49

2minus5

36

63

2724

45

39

44

minus17

372

17

200

68

019

47

3016

60

32minus7

99

36

44

23

94

49

2minus5

59

915

224

56

68

80

87

99

09

7

200

779

39

2730

50

189

5minus8

233

45

32

39

44

92

minus58

389

61

246

62

93

418

59

30

88

200

878

59

88

308

280

25minus8

48

04

57

23

94

49

2minus6

08

59

64

247

42

06

027

69

06

92

200

977

812

831

144

58

2minus8

73

48

702

39

44

92

minus63

40

378

248

04

20

336

135

55

7

2010

770

34

73

145

1724

minus89

96

917

23

94

49

2minus6

60

24

2424

84

93

00

43

96

90

92

2011

762

64

331

74

96

10minus9

26

68

242

39

44

92

minus68

723

3224

877

278

512

305

33

2012

755

017

320

383

92

minus95

44

829

23

94

49

2minus7

150

336

248

88

05

65

79

57

00

2

2013

747

46

732

318

224

minus98

3117

42

39

44

92

minus74

366

81

248

815

43

64

183

58

4

2014

739

99

232

58

92

56

minus10

126

109

23

94

49

2minus7

731

617

248

57

639

69

94

339

8

2015

732

59

232

85

1635

minus10

429

89

22

39

44

92

minus80

354

00

248

162

3575

26

76

77

2016

725

26

633

105

50

7minus1

07

42

78

92

39

44

92

minus83

48

29

724

75

72

118

018

58

39

2017

718

014

333

510

17minus1

106

50

732

39

44

92

minus86

705

80

65

30

08

88

89

98

132

59

67

37

05

0

RO

I =

157



Table

5R

OI

of t

he

GM

B t

o t

he

pu

blic

tre

asu

ries

Pu

rch

ase

of t

he

per

man

ent

colle

ctio

n i

ncl

ud

ed

Yea

rR

est

of

Sp

ain

+Fo

reig

nV

isit

ors

Taxe

sA

dd

itio

nal

Rev

en

ue

du

eto

GM

B (euro

)

De

fici

tG

MB

(euro

)A

mo

rtiz

atio

no

f th

eB

uild

ing

(euro

)

GM

Brsquos

De

fici

t +

Am

ort

izat

ion

(euro)

Inve

stm

en

t in

GM

Brsquos

Bu

ildin

g +

Op

era

tive

Co

sts

(euro)

Pu

rch

ase

of

the

Pe

rman

en

tC

olle

ctio

n

Res

idu

al V

alu

eo

f G

MB

in Y

ear

20

17 (euro

)

Cas

h-f

low

sP

ub

licTr

easu

ry (euro

)

Net

Pre

sen

tV

alu

e a

tan

8

Dis

cou

nt

Rat

e

minus126

49

50

18minus3

23

104

11minus1

58

80

54

29

199

717

88

71

58

718

88

minus99

67

820

23

94

49

2minus7

573

328

minus42

40

00

0minus5

94

144

0minus1

52

135

89

1

199

89

018

7527

56

24

15minus5

48

42

362

39

44

92

minus30

89

74

3minus4

24

00

00

202

326

72minus1

360

745

43

199

99

208

81

293

59

44

1minus5

919

90

32

39

44

92

minus35

254

11minus4

24

00

00

215

94

030

minus120

20

22

86

200

078

75

66

277

84

79

0minus5

818

225

23

94

49

2minus3

423

733

minus42

40

00

020

1210

57

minus10

65

08

233

200

177

190

026

94

93

83

minus68

236

702

39

44

92

minus44

2917

8minus4

24

00

00

182

80

20

5minus9

49

88

60

3

200

272

38

84

259

88

68

5minus7

60

725

32

39

44

92

minus52

127

61

minus42

40

00

016

535

924

minus85

34

00

51

200

374

35

86

277

115

80

minus78

1913

22

39

44

92

minus54

246

40

minus42

40

00

018

04

69

40

minus75

58

98

50

200

48

182

3029

46

58

82

minus75

34

776

23

94

49

2minus5

140

28

4minus6

00

00

00

183

255

98

minus66

422

48

9

200

58

100

47

298

202

71

minus77

60

819

23

94

49

2minus5

36

63

27minus6

00

00

00

184

53

94

4minus5

78

747

42

200

68

019

47

3016

60

32minus7

99

36

44

23

94

49

2minus5

59

915

2minus6

00

00

00

185

66

88

0minus4

99

117

25

200

779

39

2730

50

189

5minus8

233

45

32

39

44

92

minus58

389

61

minus60

00

00

018

66

29

34

minus42

50

04

17

200

878

59

88

308

280

25minus8

48

04

57

23

94

49

2minus6

08

59

64

minus60

00

00

018

74

20

60

minus35

60

90

00

200

977

812

83

114

45

82

minus87

34

870

23

94

49

2minus6

34

03

78minus6

00

00

00

188

04

20

3minus2

92

06

90

2

2010

770

34

73

145

1724

minus89

96

917

23

94

49

2minus6

60

24

24minus6

00

00

00

188

49

30

0minus2

326

48

16

2011

762

64

331

74

96

10minus9

26

68

242

39

44

92

minus68

723

32minus6

00

00

00

188

772

78minus1

775

47

19

2012

755

017

320

383

92

minus95

44

829

23

94

49

2minus7

150

336

minus60

00

00

018

88

80

56

minus12

64

98

64

2013

747

46

732

318

224

minus98

3117

42

39

44

92

minus74

366

81

minus60

00

00

018

88

154

3minus7

924

776

2014

739

99

232

58

92

56

minus10

126

109

23

94

49

2minus7

73

1617

minus60

00

00

018

85

76

39minus3

55

52

33

20

1573

25

92

328

516

35minus1

04

298

92

23

94

49

2minus8

035

40

0minus6

00

00

00

188

162

354

81

75

6

2016

725

26

633

105

50

7minus1

07

42

78

92

39

44

92

minus83

48

29

7minus6

00

00

00

187

57

211

42

07

98

4

2017

718

014

333

510

17minus1

106

50

732

39

44

92

minus86

705

80

minus60

00

00

022

99

616

2224

86

42

05

94

99

43

33

0

RO

I =

109

464 Debate









































466 Debate





Million euro



2 Land 721

3 Building





5 Taxes 721


Total 16602



0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

FONSsa trend













copy



7



Figure 4


4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Beds HBiscay

460 Debate


copy















462 Debate


Table

4R

OI

of t

he

GM

B t

o t

he

pu

blic

tre

asu

ries

Pu

rch

ase

of t

he

per

man

ent

colle

ctio

n n

ot i

ncl

ud

ed

Yea

rR

est

of

Sp

ain

+Fo

reig

nV

isit

ors

Taxe

sA

dd

itio

nal

Rev

en

ue

du

eto

GM

B (euro

)

De

fici

tG

MB

(euro

)A

mo

rtiz

atio

no

f th

eB

uild

ing

(euro)

GM

Brsquos

De

fici

t +

Am

ort

izat

ion

(euro)

Inve

stm

en

t in

GM

Brsquos

Bu

ildin

g+

Op

era

tive

Co

sts

(euro)

Res

idu

al V

alu

eo

f G

MB

in Y

ear

20

17 (euro

)

Cas

h-f

low

sP

ub

licTr

easu

ry (euro

)

Net

Pre

sen

tV

alu

e a

t an

8

Dis

cou

nt

Rat

e

minus126

49

50

18minus1

264

95

018

199

717

88

71

58

718

88

minus99

67

820

23

94

49

2minus7

573

328

minus17

014

40

minus118

58

372

7

199

89

018

7527

56

24

15minus5

48

42

362

39

44

92

minus30

89

74

324

472

672

minus99

156

53

1

199

99

208

81

293

59

44

1minus5

919

90

32

39

44

92

minus35

254

1125

83

40

30minus8

016

774

8

200

078

75

66

277

84

79

0minus5

818

225

23

94

49

2minus3

423

733

243

610

57

minus63

58

80

22

200

177

190

026

94

93

83

minus68

236

702

39

44

92

minus44

2917

822

520

20

5minus4

93

96

473

200

272

38

84

259

88

68

5minus7

60

725

32

39

44

92

minus52

127

61

207

759

24minus3

727

39

20

200

374

35

86

277

115

80

minus78

1913

22

39

44

92

minus54

246

40

222

86

94

0minus2

52

329

80

200

48

182

3029

46

58

82

minus75

34

776

23

94

49

2minus5

140

28

424

325

59

8minus1

30

64

125

200

58

100

47

298

202

71

minus77

60

819

23

94

49

2minus5

36

63

2724

45

39

44

minus17

372

17

200

68

019

47

3016

60

32minus7

99

36

44

23

94

49

2minus5

59

915

224

56

68

80

87

99

09

7

200

779

39

2730

50

189

5minus8

233

45

32

39

44

92

minus58

389

61

246

62

93

418

59

30

88

200

878

59

88

308

280

25minus8

48

04

57

23

94

49

2minus6

08

59

64

247

42

06

027

69

06

92

200

977

812

831

144

58

2minus8

73

48

702

39

44

92

minus63

40

378

248

04

20

336

135

55

7

2010

770

34

73

145

1724

minus89

96

917

23

94

49

2minus6

60

24

2424

84

93

00

43

96

90

92

2011

762

64

331

74

96

10minus9

26

68

242

39

44

92

minus68

723

3224

877

278

512

305

33

2012

755

017

320

383

92

minus95

44

829

23

94

49

2minus7

150

336

248

88

05

65

79

57

00

2

2013

747

46

732

318

224

minus98

3117

42

39

44

92

minus74

366

81

248

815

43

64

183

58

4

2014

739

99

232

58

92

56

minus10

126

109

23

94

49

2minus7

731

617

248

57

639

69

94

339

8

2015

732

59

232

85

1635

minus10

429

89

22

39

44

92

minus80

354

00

248

162

3575

26

76

77

2016

725

26

633

105

50

7minus1

07

42

78

92

39

44

92

minus83

48

29

724

75

72

118

018

58

39

2017

718

014

333

510

17minus1

106

50

732

39

44

92

minus86

705

80

65

30

08

88

89

98

132

59

67

37

05

0

RO

I =

157



Table

5R

OI

of t

he

GM

B t

o t

he

pu

blic

tre

asu

ries

Pu

rch

ase

of t

he

per

man

ent

colle

ctio

n i

ncl

ud

ed

Yea

rR

est

of

Sp

ain

+Fo

reig

nV

isit

ors

Taxe

sA

dd

itio

nal

Rev

en

ue

du

eto

GM

B (euro

)

De

fici

tG

MB

(euro

)A

mo

rtiz

atio

no

f th

eB

uild

ing

(euro

)

GM

Brsquos

De

fici

t +

Am

ort

izat

ion

(euro)

Inve

stm

en

t in

GM

Brsquos

Bu

ildin

g +

Op

era

tive

Co

sts

(euro)

Pu

rch

ase

of

the

Pe

rman

en

tC

olle

ctio

n

Res

idu

al V

alu

eo

f G

MB

in Y

ear

20

17 (euro

)

Cas

h-f

low

sP

ub

licTr

easu

ry (euro

)

Net

Pre

sen

tV

alu

e a

tan

8

Dis

cou

nt

Rat

e

minus126

49

50

18minus3

23

104

11minus1

58

80

54

29

199

717

88

71

58

718

88

minus99

67

820

23

94

49

2minus7

573

328

minus42

40

00

0minus5

94

144

0minus1

52

135

89

1

199

89

018

7527

56

24

15minus5

48

42

362

39

44

92

minus30

89

74

3minus4

24

00

00

202

326

72minus1

360

745

43

199

99

208

81

293

59

44

1minus5

919

90

32

39

44

92

minus35

254

11minus4

24

00

00

215

94

030

minus120

20

22

86

200

078

75

66

277

84

79

0minus5

818

225

23

94

49

2minus3

423

733

minus42

40

00

020

1210

57

minus10

65

08

233

200

177

190

026

94

93

83

minus68

236

702

39

44

92

minus44

2917

8minus4

24

00

00

182

80

20

5minus9

49

88

60

3

200

272

38

84

259

88

68

5minus7

60

725

32

39

44

92

minus52

127

61

minus42

40

00

016

535

924

minus85

34

00

51

200

374

35

86

277

115

80

minus78

1913

22

39

44

92

minus54

246

40

minus42

40

00

018

04

69

40

minus75

58

98

50

200

48

182

3029

46

58

82

minus75

34

776

23

94

49

2minus5

140

28

4minus6

00

00

00

183

255

98

minus66

422

48

9

200

58

100

47

298

202

71

minus77

60

819

23

94

49

2minus5

36

63

27minus6

00

00

00

184

53

94

4minus5

78

747

42

200

68

019

47

3016

60

32minus7

99

36

44

23

94

49

2minus5

59

915

2minus6

00

00

00

185

66

88

0minus4

99

117

25

200

779

39

2730

50

189

5minus8

233

45

32

39

44

92

minus58

389

61

minus60

00

00

018

66

29

34

minus42

50

04

17

200

878

59

88

308

280

25minus8

48

04

57

23

94

49

2minus6

08

59

64

minus60

00

00

018

74

20

60

minus35

60

90

00

200

977

812

83

114

45

82

minus87

34

870

23

94

49

2minus6

34

03

78minus6

00

00

00

188

04

20

3minus2

92

06

90

2

2010

770

34

73

145

1724

minus89

96

917

23

94

49

2minus6

60

24

24minus6

00

00

00

188

49

30

0minus2

326

48

16

2011

762

64

331

74

96

10minus9

26

68

242

39

44

92

minus68

723

32minus6

00

00

00

188

772

78minus1

775

47

19

2012

755

017

320

383

92

minus95

44

829

23

94

49

2minus7

150

336

minus60

00

00

018

88

80

56

minus12

64

98

64

2013

747

46

732

318

224

minus98

3117

42

39

44

92

minus74

366

81

minus60

00

00

018

88

154

3minus7

924

776

2014

739

99

232

58

92

56

minus10

126

109

23

94

49

2minus7

73

1617

minus60

00

00

018

85

76

39minus3

55

52

33

20

1573

25

92

328

516

35minus1

04

298

92

23

94

49

2minus8

035

40

0minus6

00

00

00

188

162

354

81

75

6

2016

725

26

633

105

50

7minus1

07

42

78

92

39

44

92

minus83

48

29

7minus6

00

00

00

187

57

211

42

07

98

4

2017

718

014

333

510

17minus1

106

50

732

39

44

92

minus86

705

80

minus60

00

00

022

99

616

2224

86

42

05

94

99

43

33

0

RO

I =

109

464 Debate









































466 Debate





Million euro



2 Land 721

3 Building





5 Taxes 721


Total 16602



0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

FONSsa trend











460 Debate


copy















462 Debate


Table

4R

OI

of t

he

GM

B t

o t

he

pu

blic

tre

asu

ries

Pu

rch

ase

of t

he

per

man

ent

colle

ctio

n n

ot i

ncl

ud

ed

Yea

rR

est

of

Sp

ain

+Fo

reig

nV

isit

ors

Taxe

sA

dd

itio

nal

Rev

en

ue

du

eto

GM

B (euro

)

De

fici

tG

MB

(euro

)A

mo

rtiz

atio

no

f th

eB

uild

ing

(euro)

GM

Brsquos

De

fici

t +

Am

ort

izat

ion

(euro)

Inve

stm

en

t in

GM

Brsquos

Bu

ildin

g+

Op

era

tive

Co

sts

(euro)

Res

idu

al V

alu

eo

f G

MB

in Y

ear

20

17 (euro

)

Cas

h-f

low

sP

ub

licTr

easu

ry (euro

)

Net

Pre

sen

tV

alu

e a

t an

8

Dis

cou

nt

Rat

e

minus126

49

50

18minus1

264

95

018

199

717

88

71

58

718

88

minus99

67

820

23

94

49

2minus7

573

328

minus17

014

40

minus118

58

372

7

199

89

018

7527

56

24

15minus5

48

42

362

39

44

92

minus30

89

74

324

472

672

minus99

156

53

1

199

99

208

81

293

59

44

1minus5

919

90

32

39

44

92

minus35

254

1125

83

40

30minus8

016

774

8

200

078

75

66

277

84

79

0minus5

818

225

23

94

49

2minus3

423

733

243

610

57

minus63

58

80

22

200

177

190

026

94

93

83

minus68

236

702

39

44

92

minus44

2917

822

520

20

5minus4

93

96

473

200

272

38

84

259

88

68

5minus7

60

725

32

39

44

92

minus52

127

61

207

759

24minus3

727

39

20

200

374

35

86

277

115

80

minus78

1913

22

39

44

92

minus54

246

40

222

86

94

0minus2

52

329

80

200

48

182

3029

46

58

82

minus75

34

776

23

94

49

2minus5

140

28

424

325

59

8minus1

30

64

125

200

58

100

47

298

202

71

minus77

60

819

23

94

49

2minus5

36

63

2724

45

39

44

minus17

372

17

200

68

019

47

3016

60

32minus7

99

36

44

23

94

49

2minus5

59

915

224

56

68

80

87

99

09

7

200

779

39

2730

50

189

5minus8

233

45

32

39

44

92

minus58

389

61

246

62

93

418

59

30

88

200

878

59

88

308

280

25minus8

48

04

57

23

94

49

2minus6

08

59

64

247

42

06

027

69

06

92

200

977

812

831

144

58

2minus8

73

48

702

39

44

92

minus63

40

378

248

04

20

336

135

55

7

2010

770

34

73

145

1724

minus89

96

917

23

94

49

2minus6

60

24

2424

84

93

00

43

96

90

92

2011

762

64

331

74

96

10minus9

26

68

242

39

44

92

minus68

723

3224

877

278

512

305

33

2012

755

017

320

383

92

minus95

44

829

23

94

49

2minus7

150

336

248

88

05

65

79

57

00

2

2013

747

46

732

318

224

minus98

3117

42

39

44

92

minus74

366

81

248

815

43

64

183

58

4

2014

739

99

232

58

92

56

minus10

126

109

23

94

49

2minus7

731

617

248

57

639

69

94

339

8

2015

732

59

232

85

1635

minus10

429

89

22

39

44

92

minus80

354

00

248

162

3575

26

76

77

2016

725

26

633

105

50

7minus1

07

42

78

92

39

44

92

minus83

48

29

724

75

72

118

018

58

39

2017

718

014

333

510

17minus1

106

50

732

39

44

92

minus86

705

80

65

30

08

88

89

98

132

59

67

37

05

0

RO

I =

157



Table

5R

OI

of t

he

GM

B t

o t

he

pu

blic

tre

asu

ries

Pu

rch

ase

of t

he

per

man

ent

colle

ctio

n i

ncl

ud

ed

Yea

rR

est

of

Sp

ain

+Fo

reig

nV

isit

ors

Taxe

sA

dd

itio

nal

Rev

en

ue

du

eto

GM

B (euro

)

De

fici

tG

MB

(euro

)A

mo

rtiz

atio

no

f th

eB

uild

ing

(euro

)

GM

Brsquos

De

fici

t +

Am

ort

izat

ion

(euro)

Inve

stm

en

t in

GM

Brsquos

Bu

ildin

g +

Op

era

tive

Co

sts

(euro)

Pu

rch

ase

of

the

Pe

rman

en

tC

olle

ctio

n

Res

idu

al V

alu

eo

f G

MB

in Y

ear

20

17 (euro

)

Cas

h-f

low

sP

ub

licTr

easu

ry (euro

)

Net

Pre

sen

tV

alu

e a

tan

8

Dis

cou

nt

Rat

e

minus126

49

50

18minus3

23

104

11minus1

58

80

54

29

199

717

88

71

58

718

88

minus99

67

820

23

94

49

2minus7

573

328

minus42

40

00

0minus5

94

144

0minus1

52

135

89

1

199

89

018

7527

56

24

15minus5

48

42

362

39

44

92

minus30

89

74

3minus4

24

00

00

202

326

72minus1

360

745

43

199

99

208

81

293

59

44

1minus5

919

90

32

39

44

92

minus35

254

11minus4

24

00

00

215

94

030

minus120

20

22

86

200

078

75

66

277

84

79

0minus5

818

225

23

94

49

2minus3

423

733

minus42

40

00

020

1210

57

minus10

65

08

233

200

177

190

026

94

93

83

minus68

236

702

39

44

92

minus44

2917

8minus4

24

00

00

182

80

20

5minus9

49

88

60

3

200

272

38

84

259

88

68

5minus7

60

725

32

39

44

92

minus52

127

61

minus42

40

00

016

535

924

minus85

34

00

51

200

374

35

86

277

115

80

minus78

1913

22

39

44

92

minus54

246

40

minus42

40

00

018

04

69

40

minus75

58

98

50

200

48

182

3029

46

58

82

minus75

34

776

23

94

49

2minus5

140

28

4minus6

00

00

00

183

255

98

minus66

422

48

9

200

58

100

47

298

202

71

minus77

60

819

23

94

49

2minus5

36

63

27minus6

00

00

00

184

53

94

4minus5

78

747

42

200

68

019

47

3016

60

32minus7

99

36

44

23

94

49

2minus5

59

915

2minus6

00

00

00

185

66

88

0minus4

99

117

25

200

779

39

2730

50

189

5minus8

233

45

32

39

44

92

minus58

389

61

minus60

00

00

018

66

29

34

minus42

50

04

17

200

878

59

88

308

280

25minus8

48

04

57

23

94

49

2minus6

08

59

64

minus60

00

00

018

74

20

60

minus35

60

90

00

200

977

812

83

114

45

82

minus87

34

870

23

94

49

2minus6

34

03

78minus6

00

00

00

188

04

20

3minus2

92

06

90

2

2010

770

34

73

145

1724

minus89

96

917

23

94

49

2minus6

60

24

24minus6

00

00

00

188

49

30

0minus2

326

48

16

2011

762

64

331

74

96

10minus9

26

68

242

39

44

92

minus68

723

32minus6

00

00

00

188

772

78minus1

775

47

19

2012

755

017

320

383

92

minus95

44

829

23

94

49

2minus7

150

336

minus60

00

00

018

88

80

56

minus12

64

98

64

2013

747

46

732

318

224

minus98

3117

42

39

44

92

minus74

366

81

minus60

00

00

018

88

154

3minus7

924

776

2014

739

99

232

58

92

56

minus10

126

109

23

94

49

2minus7

73

1617

minus60

00

00

018

85

76

39minus3

55

52

33

20

1573

25

92

328

516

35minus1

04

298

92

23

94

49

2minus8

035

40

0minus6

00

00

00

188

162

354

81

75

6

2016

725

26

633

105

50

7minus1

07

42

78

92

39

44

92

minus83

48

29

7minus6

00

00

00

187

57

211

42

07

98

4

2017

718

014

333

510

17minus1

106

50

732

39

44

92

minus86

705

80

minus60

00

00

022

99

616

2224

86

42

05

94

99

43

33

0

RO

I =

109

464 Debate









































466 Debate





Million euro



2 Land 721

3 Building





5 Taxes 721


Total 16602



0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

FONSsa trend



















462 Debate


Table

4R

OI

of t

he

GM

B t

o t

he

pu

blic

tre

asu

ries

Pu

rch

ase

of t

he

per

man

ent

colle

ctio

n n

ot i

ncl

ud

ed

Yea

rR

est

of

Sp

ain

+Fo

reig

nV

isit

ors

Taxe

sA

dd

itio

nal

Rev

en

ue

du

eto

GM

B (euro

)

De

fici

tG

MB

(euro

)A

mo

rtiz

atio

no

f th

eB

uild

ing

(euro)

GM

Brsquos

De

fici

t +

Am

ort

izat

ion

(euro)

Inve

stm

en

t in

GM

Brsquos

Bu

ildin

g+

Op

era

tive

Co

sts

(euro)

Res

idu

al V

alu

eo

f G

MB

in Y

ear

20

17 (euro

)

Cas

h-f

low

sP

ub

licTr

easu

ry (euro

)

Net

Pre

sen

tV

alu

e a

t an

8

Dis

cou

nt

Rat

e

minus126

49

50

18minus1

264

95

018

199

717

88

71

58

718

88

minus99

67

820

23

94

49

2minus7

573

328

minus17

014

40

minus118

58

372

7

199

89

018

7527

56

24

15minus5

48

42

362

39

44

92

minus30

89

74

324

472

672

minus99

156

53

1

199

99

208

81

293

59

44

1minus5

919

90

32

39

44

92

minus35

254

1125

83

40

30minus8

016

774

8

200

078

75

66

277

84

79

0minus5

818

225

23

94

49

2minus3

423

733

243

610

57

minus63

58

80

22

200

177

190

026

94

93

83

minus68

236

702

39

44

92

minus44

2917

822

520

20

5minus4

93

96

473

200

272

38

84

259

88

68

5minus7

60

725

32

39

44

92

minus52

127

61

207

759

24minus3

727

39

20

200

374

35

86

277

115

80

minus78

1913

22

39

44

92

minus54

246

40

222

86

94

0minus2

52

329

80

200

48

182

3029

46

58

82

minus75

34

776

23

94

49

2minus5

140

28

424

325

59

8minus1

30

64

125

200

58

100

47

298

202

71

minus77

60

819

23

94

49

2minus5

36

63

2724

45

39

44

minus17

372

17

200

68

019

47

3016

60

32minus7

99

36

44

23

94

49

2minus5

59

915

224

56

68

80

87

99

09

7

200

779

39

2730

50

189

5minus8

233

45

32

39

44

92

minus58

389

61

246

62

93

418

59

30

88

200

878

59

88

308

280

25minus8

48

04

57

23

94

49

2minus6

08

59

64

247

42

06

027

69

06

92

200

977

812

831

144

58

2minus8

73

48

702

39

44

92

minus63

40

378

248

04

20

336

135

55

7

2010

770

34

73

145

1724

minus89

96

917

23

94

49

2minus6

60

24

2424

84

93

00

43

96

90

92

2011

762

64

331

74

96

10minus9

26

68

242

39

44

92

minus68

723

3224

877

278

512

305

33

2012

755

017

320

383

92

minus95

44

829

23

94

49

2minus7

150

336

248

88

05

65

79

57

00

2

2013

747

46

732

318

224

minus98

3117

42

39

44

92

minus74

366

81

248

815

43

64

183

58

4

2014

739

99

232

58

92

56

minus10

126

109

23

94

49

2minus7

731

617

248

57

639

69

94

339

8

2015

732

59

232

85

1635

minus10

429

89

22

39

44

92

minus80

354

00

248

162

3575

26

76

77

2016

725

26

633

105

50

7minus1

07

42

78

92

39

44

92

minus83

48

29

724

75

72

118

018

58

39

2017

718

014

333

510

17minus1

106

50

732

39

44

92

minus86

705

80

65

30

08

88

89

98

132

59

67

37

05

0

RO

I =

157



Table

5R

OI

of t

he

GM

B t

o t

he

pu

blic

tre

asu

ries

Pu

rch

ase

of t

he

per

man

ent

colle

ctio

n i

ncl

ud

ed

Yea

rR

est

of

Sp

ain

+Fo

reig

nV

isit

ors

Taxe

sA

dd

itio

nal

Rev

en

ue

du

eto

GM

B (euro

)

De

fici

tG

MB

(euro

)A

mo

rtiz

atio

no

f th

eB

uild

ing

(euro

)

GM

Brsquos

De

fici

t +

Am

ort

izat

ion

(euro)

Inve

stm

en

t in

GM

Brsquos

Bu

ildin

g +

Op

era

tive

Co

sts

(euro)

Pu

rch

ase

of

the

Pe

rman

en

tC

olle

ctio

n

Res

idu

al V

alu

eo

f G

MB

in Y

ear

20

17 (euro

)

Cas

h-f

low

sP

ub

licTr

easu

ry (euro

)

Net

Pre

sen

tV

alu

e a

tan

8

Dis

cou

nt

Rat

e

minus126

49

50

18minus3

23

104

11minus1

58

80

54

29

199

717

88

71

58

718

88

minus99

67

820

23

94

49

2minus7

573

328

minus42

40

00

0minus5

94

144

0minus1

52

135

89

1

199

89

018

7527

56

24

15minus5

48

42

362

39

44

92

minus30

89

74

3minus4

24

00

00

202

326

72minus1

360

745

43

199

99

208

81

293

59

44

1minus5

919

90

32

39

44

92

minus35

254

11minus4

24

00

00

215

94

030

minus120

20

22

86

200

078

75

66

277

84

79

0minus5

818

225

23

94

49

2minus3

423

733

minus42

40

00

020

1210

57

minus10

65

08

233

200

177

190

026

94

93

83

minus68

236

702

39

44

92

minus44

2917

8minus4

24

00

00

182

80

20

5minus9

49

88

60

3

200

272

38

84

259

88

68

5minus7

60

725

32

39

44

92

minus52

127

61

minus42

40

00

016

535

924

minus85

34

00

51

200

374

35

86

277

115

80

minus78

1913

22

39

44

92

minus54

246

40

minus42

40

00

018

04

69

40

minus75

58

98

50

200

48

182

3029

46

58

82

minus75

34

776

23

94

49

2minus5

140

28

4minus6

00

00

00

183

255

98

minus66

422

48

9

200

58

100

47

298

202

71

minus77

60

819

23

94

49

2minus5

36

63

27minus6

00

00

00

184

53

94

4minus5

78

747

42

200

68

019

47

3016

60

32minus7

99

36

44

23

94

49

2minus5

59

915

2minus6

00

00

00

185

66

88

0minus4

99

117

25

200

779

39

2730

50

189

5minus8

233

45

32

39

44

92

minus58

389

61

minus60

00

00

018

66

29

34

minus42

50

04

17

200

878

59

88

308

280

25minus8

48

04

57

23

94

49

2minus6

08

59

64

minus60

00

00

018

74

20

60

minus35

60

90

00

200

977

812

83

114

45

82

minus87

34

870

23

94

49

2minus6

34

03

78minus6

00

00

00

188

04

20

3minus2

92

06

90

2

2010

770

34

73

145

1724

minus89

96

917

23

94

49

2minus6

60

24

24minus6

00

00

00

188

49

30

0minus2

326

48

16

2011

762

64

331

74

96

10minus9

26

68

242

39

44

92

minus68

723

32minus6

00

00

00

188

772

78minus1

775

47

19

2012

755

017

320

383

92

minus95

44

829

23

94

49

2minus7

150

336

minus60

00

00

018

88

80

56

minus12

64

98

64

2013

747

46

732

318

224

minus98

3117

42

39

44

92

minus74

366

81

minus60

00

00

018

88

154

3minus7

924

776

2014

739

99

232

58

92

56

minus10

126

109

23

94

49

2minus7

73

1617

minus60

00

00

018

85

76

39minus3

55

52

33

20

1573

25

92

328

516

35minus1

04

298

92

23

94

49

2minus8

035

40

0minus6

00

00

00

188

162

354

81

75

6

2016

725

26

633

105

50

7minus1

07

42

78

92

39

44

92

minus83

48

29

7minus6

00

00

00

187

57

211

42

07

98

4

2017

718

014

333

510

17minus1

106

50

732

39

44

92

minus86

705

80

minus60

00

00

022

99

616

2224

86

42

05

94

99

43

33

0

RO

I =

109

464 Debate









































466 Debate





Million euro



2 Land 721

3 Building





5 Taxes 721


Total 16602



0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

FONSsa trend













Table

5R

OI

of t

he

GM

B t

o t

he

pu

blic

tre

asu

ries

Pu

rch

ase

of t

he

per

man

ent

colle

ctio

n i

ncl

ud

ed

Yea

rR

est

of

Sp

ain

+Fo

reig

nV

isit

ors

Taxe

sA

dd

itio

nal

Rev

en

ue

du

eto

GM

B (euro

)

De

fici

tG

MB

(euro

)A

mo

rtiz

atio

no

f th

eB

uild

ing

(euro

)

GM

Brsquos

De

fici

t +

Am

ort

izat

ion

(euro)

Inve

stm

en

t in

GM

Brsquos

Bu

ildin

g +

Op

era

tive

Co

sts

(euro)

Pu

rch

ase

of

the

Pe

rman

en

tC

olle

ctio

n

Res

idu

al V

alu

eo

f G

MB

in Y

ear

20

17 (euro

)

Cas

h-f

low

sP

ub

licTr

easu

ry (euro

)

Net

Pre

sen

tV

alu

e a

tan

8

Dis

cou

nt

Rat

e

minus126

49

50

18minus3

23

104

11minus1

58

80

54

29

199

717

88

71

58

718

88

minus99

67

820

23

94

49

2minus7

573

328

minus42

40

00

0minus5

94

144

0minus1

52

135

89

1

199

89

018

7527

56

24

15minus5

48

42

362

39

44

92

minus30

89

74

3minus4

24

00

00

202

326

72minus1

360

745

43

199

99

208

81

293

59

44

1minus5

919

90

32

39

44

92

minus35

254

11minus4

24

00

00

215

94

030

minus120

20

22

86

200

078

75

66

277

84

79

0minus5

818

225

23

94

49

2minus3

423

733

minus42

40

00

020

1210

57

minus10

65

08

233

200

177

190

026

94

93

83

minus68

236

702

39

44

92

minus44

2917

8minus4

24

00

00

182

80

20

5minus9

49

88

60

3

200

272

38

84

259

88

68

5minus7

60

725

32

39

44

92

minus52

127

61

minus42

40

00

016

535

924

minus85

34

00

51

200

374

35

86

277

115

80

minus78

1913

22

39

44

92

minus54

246

40

minus42

40

00

018

04

69

40

minus75

58

98

50

200

48

182

3029

46

58

82

minus75

34

776

23

94

49

2minus5

140

28

4minus6

00

00

00

183

255

98

minus66

422

48

9

200

58

100

47

298

202

71

minus77

60

819

23

94

49

2minus5

36

63

27minus6

00

00

00

184

53

94

4minus5

78

747

42

200

68

019

47

3016

60

32minus7

99

36

44

23

94

49

2minus5

59

915

2minus6

00

00

00

185

66

88

0minus4

99

117

25

200

779

39

2730

50

189

5minus8

233

45

32

39

44

92

minus58

389

61

minus60

00

00

018

66

29

34

minus42

50

04

17

200

878

59

88

308

280

25minus8

48

04

57

23

94

49

2minus6

08

59

64

minus60

00

00

018

74

20

60

minus35

60

90

00

200

977

812

83

114

45

82

minus87

34

870

23

94

49

2minus6

34

03

78minus6

00

00

00

188

04

20

3minus2

92

06

90

2

2010

770

34

73

145

1724

minus89

96

917

23

94

49

2minus6

60

24

24minus6

00

00

00

188

49

30

0minus2

326

48

16

2011

762

64

331

74

96

10minus9

26

68

242

39

44

92

minus68

723

32minus6

00

00

00

188

772

78minus1

775

47

19

2012

755

017

320

383

92

minus95

44

829

23

94

49

2minus7

150

336

minus60

00

00

018

88

80

56

minus12

64

98

64

2013

747

46

732

318

224

minus98

3117

42

39

44

92

minus74

366

81

minus60

00

00

018

88

154

3minus7

924

776

2014

739

99

232

58

92

56

minus10

126

109

23

94

49

2minus7

73

1617

minus60

00

00

018

85

76

39minus3

55

52

33

20

1573

25

92

328

516

35minus1

04

298

92

23

94

49

2minus8

035

40

0minus6

00

00

00

188

162

354

81

75

6

2016

725

26

633

105

50

7minus1

07

42

78

92

39

44

92

minus83

48

29

7minus6

00

00

00

187

57

211

42

07

98

4

2017

718

014

333

510

17minus1

106

50

732

39

44

92

minus86

705

80

minus60

00

00

022

99

616

2224

86

42

05

94

99

43

33

0

RO

I =

109

464 Debate









































466 Debate





Million euro



2 Land 721

3 Building





5 Taxes 721


Total 16602



0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

FONSsa trend











464 Debate









































466 Debate





Million euro



2 Land 721

3 Building





5 Taxes 721


Total 16602



0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

FONSsa trend





































466 Debate





Million euro



2 Land 721

3 Building





5 Taxes 721


Total 16602



0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

FONSsa trend











the return on investment of the guggenheim museum bilbao

Documents