the six americas of climate change: presentation to tcp
TRANSCRIPT
The Climate Project Meet UpOctober 16, 2010
The Six Americas of Climate Change
Justin Rolfe-Redding, M.A.
Social Marketing
What We Do
Road MapResearch Six Americas Segmentation
Application Issue Immediacy
Solution Human Health Framing
We often talk about reaching the “general public”
Regarding climate change, however, Americans are NOT of one mind.
Democrat Independent Republican0%
50%
100%
81.2%
55.8%
40.1%
4.4%
24.6%
36.4%
14.4% 19.6% 23.5%
Don't know
No
Yes
Belief in Global Warming by Party Identification – January 2010
Source: Yale & George Mason, 2010
A basic illustration
Regional variations
Northwest
Southwest
The GreatPlains
Southwest Atlantic and Gulf Coast
Midwest And Northeast
Northeast
Alaska
Northwest
•Early Snow Melt
•Degraded air quality
•Urban Heat Island
•Heat Waves
•Drought
•Extreme rainfall/ Flooding
•Sea-level Rise
Northeast
•Early Snow Melt
•Degraded air quality
•Urban Heat Island
•Heat Waves
•Drought
•Extreme rainfall/ Flooding
•Sea-level Rise
Northeast
To maximize the impact of your communication:
Target your most important audience(s)
When possible, tailor your messages accordingly
Who are your most important audiences?
Source: Yale & George Mason, June 2010
Global Warming’s Six Americas
Faces of Global Warming’s Six Americas
Alarmed Alice Alice is completely sure global warming is happening, she believes it is human caused, and she feels personally threatened by it. She also believes that people around the world are already being harmed by it, or will soon be.
Alice is only modestly more likely than average to be taking steps to reduce her energy use, but she is far more likely than average to use her purchasing power - and her voice as a citizen - to advocate for change. Alice supports a wide range of policy responses to address global warming.
Concerned ClaudiaClaudia is very sure global warming is happening, and she believes it is human causes, but she feels less personally threatened by it than Alice. She believes that global warming will begin to harm people around the world 10+ years from now.
Claudia is average in terms of taking measures to reduce her energy consumption, but well above average in terms of using her purchasing power to advocate for change. Claudia supports aggressive government policies, but is unlikely to contact her elected officials to say so.
Cautious Carl Carl is only somewhat sure that global warming is happening, and he is equally likely to see it as human caused or not. He sees global warming as a more distant threat – primarily a threat to other people – that won’t begin to hurt people around the world for another 25 - 50 years.
Carl is taking average steps to reduce his energy consumption, but isn’t involved in addressing global warming in other ways. He is, however, modestly supportive of a range of proposed policies.
Disengaged DianeDiane thinks global warming may be happening, but she’s not at all sure. She’s given it very little thought, doesn’t consider it personally important, and doesn’t feel she knows anything about it.
Diane has done relatively little to reduce her use of energy at home, but because she has lower than average income she is more likely than average not to rely on her own car.
Despite her low level of personal concern, Diane is more supportive than Carl of mounting a national response to global warming.
Doubtful DavidDavid says he doesn’t know if real or not, but if it is, he’s pretty sure it isn’t human-caused. David certainly isn’t worried about it; he sees global warming as a very distant threat that won’t harm people for at least another 100 years.
David isn’t in favor of a national response to global warming per se, but he is modestly in favor of a range of energy-saving policy measures, and is active in improving energy-efficiency in his home.
Dismissive DanDan simply does not believe that global warming is happening – or that it’s in God’s hands - and he believes that many scientists share his views. Needless to say, Dan doesn’t support any form of government action against global warming.
Although vigorously opposed to government action on global warming, he himself is quite active in making energy-efficient improvements to his home.
Source: Yale & George Mason, June 2010
“If you could ask an expert on global warming one question, which question would you ask?”
What can the US do to reduce global warming?
What harm will global warming cause?
How do you know that global warming is occurring?
Source: Yale & George Mason, 2008
Motivate the Alarmed and Concerned
Convince the Cautions and Disengaged
Ignore the Doubtful and Dismissive
Changes Over Time
Source: Yale & George Mason, 2008, 2010
Immediacy
… “Immediacy”
Did you see the text?
Processing of risk
Source: Slovic, Finucane, Peters, & McGregor, 2004
Experientialsystem
Analyticsystem
requires logic and evidence“experiencing is believing”
wordspercents%
<= logic
Processing of riskSource: Slovic, Finucane, Peters, & McGregor, 2004
Experientialsystem
“experiencing is believing”
Analytic system
requires logic and evidence
words
percents%
<= logic
Alarmed
Concern
ed
Cautious
Disenga
ged
Doubtful
Dismiss
ive0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Somewhat AgreeStrongly Agree
“I have personally experienced the effects of global warming.”
Source: Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., & Roser-Renouf, C. (2010) Global Warming’s Six Americas, January 2010. Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale Project on Climate Change.
American Images of Global Warming
Source: Leiserowitz, 2003, 2010
MeltingIce
Heat Nature Ozone Alarmed Flood/Sea Levels
ClimateChg
Naysayer
Source: Leiserowitz, Maibach & Roser-Renouf (2009): Climate Change in the American Mind
How important is the issue of global warming to you personally?
“I have personally experienced the effects of global warming.”
Extremely important Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Strongly AgreeSomewhat AgreeSomewhat DisagreeStrongly Disagree
4%
29%
43%
24%
2008 data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Strongly AgreeSomewhat AgreeSomewhat DisagreeStrongly Disagree
Do you think that global warming is happening? How sure are you that global warming is happening?
“I have personally experienced the effects of global warming.”
4%
29%
43%
24%
2008 dataLeiserowitz, Maibach & Roser-Renouf. (2009). [Data]Akerlof, Maibach & Leiserowitz .(In progress). [Secondary analysis]
How can we leverage experiential learning?
The experiential information processing system is activated (i.e., “personal experience” is gained) in many ways:
When the audience personally experiences an event.
When an abstract issue is framed in terms of personal life.
When the audience witnesses an event (live or in the media).
Framing Climate Change as a Health Issue
“In the next 20 years, it is likely that my jurisdiction will experience one or more series public health problems as a result of climate change”
Results from a national sample of local health department directors
Source: Maibach et al. (2008) PLoS ONE 3(7): e2838. doi:10.1371
Key Health Messages
Increases in the risk of illness & deathrelated to extreme heat & heat waves
arevery likely. Some reduction in the risk ofdeath related to extreme cold isexpected.
Warming is likely to make it morechallenging to meet air quality standardsnecessary to protect public health.
Some diseases transmitted by food,water& insects are likely to increase.
Certain groups, including children, the elderly, and the poor are most
vulnerableto a wide range of climate-related healtheffects.
Source: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States (2009)
Framing climate change as a human health & wellbeing issue
– rather than a plants, penguins & polar bears issue – can help publics more effectively engage with the issue.
What harm will global warming cause?
We get this
Instead of this
Instead of this
We get this
Instead of this
We get this
In Sum…
Mindset Begin and end with your audiences
Plan Consider their unique strengths and deficits
Action Connect through immediate experience
All 4C reports can be downloaded at:
Climatechangecommunication.org