The Three Themes:The Three Themes:

1.1. Regional Climate Change and Energy Regional Climate Change and Energy ModelingModeling

2.2. Outstanding Scientific ProblemsOutstanding Scientific Problems

3.3. Infusion of Data into ModelsInfusion of Data into Models

Regional Climate Changes & Energy ModelingRegional Climate Changes & Energy Modeling

Vogelmann Miller

JensenWagener

LiuDaumGuo

McGrawLewisChang

ReismanBhatt

Wang

Riemer

Chang

Colle

ZhangMarat K.

Lin

NY BlueNY BlueCenterCenter

ZhangLin

Monsoons

Storm Tracks

Hurricanes

Storm Surge

Energy use

Regional Climate Changes & Energy ModelingRegional Climate Changes & Energy Modeling

The Walker Circulation Monsoon

(Zhang)

Zhang and Song (2006)

Asian MonsoonAsian Monsoon

CCSM GFDL

Monsoons (Zhang)

Simulated Change of Monsoon in Global Warming

Plan: Resolve mesoscale convective systems using CAMEnsembles

Regional Climate changes:Storm track variability and changes (E. Chang)

Why are winter storms important? -- weather and regional climate -- transport heat and moisture poleward

Impact of storm track changes: -- e.g. El Nino: Pacific storm track shifts southward:

significant impacts on west coast climate

Global warming model prediction: -- Storm tracks move poleward and intensify

-- significant impacts on regional climate and hydrology

Issues: -- Reasons for such changes? -- How reliable are these predictions?

Current model deficiencies: -- current climate models just resolving these storms -- physics: too strong coupling between moisture and

dynamics? (Deficiencies in seasonal cycle)

Fundamental science questions: -- what controls the location and intensity of storm tracks?

-- Land sea distribution? Mountains? Heating?

Methodology: -- Suite of high (1°) and lower resolution GCM simulations -- Novelty:

-- diagnosed using a suite of diagnostic (statistical and mechanistic) models developed by the PI

-- validation of analyses and GCMs using observations

An example: Seasonal cycle of Pacific storm track

Validation of the mid-winter suppression using analyses of observations (Chang 2003)

Reanalysis

Radiosonde Aircraft

250 hPa EKENOV - FEB

Zonal mean of 300 hPa EKE simulated byCAM3

Control

No mountains

Wave period (s)

Hurricanes (Wang)

8/27

8/29

8/28

8/30

Hurricanes (Wang)

New York City Vulnerability to Storm Surge (Colle)

Source: Metro New York Hurricane Transportation Study, 1995

Flood areas for hurricane:

CAT 1

CAT 2

CAT 3

CAT 4

FDR Drive during the December 1992 nor’easter (Bloomfield, 1999)

Ref: Bloomfield, J., M. Smith and N. Thompson, 1999. Hot Nights in the City. Environmental Defense Fund, New York.

1992 Nor’easter Flooding

Source: Metro New York Hurricane Transportation Study, 1995

Advanced Circulation Model for Coastal Ocean Hydrodynamics (ADCIRC) Forced by PSU-NCAR MM5 or WRF Atmospheric model at 12-km grid spacing

ADCIRC Water-level and Flooding

12-km MM5 Forecast

1200 UTC 11 December 1992

meters

• MARKAL analyzes mitigation options for the entire energy system & can address adaptation

• Impacts, vulnerability & adaptation (IVA) approaches are difficult to analyze

• IVA effects are not yet comprehensively captured, including integrated assessment models (IAMs)

Impacts, Adaptation & Mitigation: Missing Links (Reisman, Bhatt)

*According to the IPCC AR4 WGII “technologies & strategies (for mitigation & adaptation) are known and developed”, but the “assessed literature does not indicate how effective various options are to fully reduce risks, particularly at higher levels of warming and related impacts, and for vulnerable groups.”

Back to the Basics: Climate Change 101

Adaptation Systems Characteristics, Capacity to adapt

Mitigation* Energy technologies, resources, Strategies

Climate Change

Science, Processes & Modeling

Impacts & Vulnerability Magnitude & timing, Regional variations

Avo

ided

, Red

uced

or D

elay

ed

Diminish the Risks

MARKAL for Mitigation Analysis (Reisman, Bhatt)

ResourceExtraction

Refining &Conversion

Transport Generation Transmission& Distribution

UtilizationDevices

End-use

Renewables

Crude Oil

Coal

Natural Gas

Refined Products

OtherSources

Nuclear

Electrolysis

Hydrogen Fuel-Cell

Fuel-Cell Vehicles

Electricity

Air-conditioning

Space Heating

Water Heating

Office Equipment

Misc. Electric Building

Misc. Electric Industrial

Process Heat

Petro/Biochemicals

Other Transportation

Passenger Travel

Refined Products

DG

ResourceExtraction

Refining &Conversion

Transport Generation Transmission& Distribution

UtilizationDevices

End-use

Renewables

Crude Oil

Coal

Natural Gas

Refined Products

OtherSources

Nuclear

Electrolysis

Hydrogen Fuel-Cell

Fuel-Cell Vehicles

Electricity

Air-conditioning

Space Heating

Water Heating

Office Equipment

Misc. Electric Building

Misc. Electric Industrial

Process Heat

Petro/Biochemicals

Other Transportation

Passenger Travel

Refined Products

DG

MARKAL Reference Energy System

Integrated energy systems analysis model – bottom-up technology rich• Analyzes environmental, technological and policy restrictions• Facilitates devising optimal strategies for technology deployment based on life-cycle costs • Signifies a flexible, transparent & well documented methodology• Epitomizes scalability: Global, National, Regional, State & Urban variants On-going energy-climate related MARKAL applications include:• President’s State of the Union address 2006 & Pre-Kyoto decision in 1997• U.S. DOE & U.S. EPA for GHG mitigation & impacts of DOE energy technology R&D on

carbon and energy futures: GNEP, Renewable & Hydrogen, Energy-Water Nexus • IPCC Scenario Analysis & G8 initiative – Gleneagles Summit 2005

Constraintson Importand Miningof Energy

Capital Needs &Technology Deployment

Demand

Energy

Ecological effects Emissions

Energy Economy

Economy

and

Society

Environment

Services

Availability of technologies

MARKAL

EnergyConsumption

for

Constraintson Importand Miningof Energy

Capital Needs &Technology Deployment

Demand

Energy

Ecological effects Emissions

Energy Economy

Economy

and

Society

Environment

Services

Availability of technologies

MARKAL

EnergyConsumption

for

MARKAL Overview

Future Work: IVA Modeling• Develop an integrated feedback rich dynamic model to study

long-term climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation that can interact seamlessly with selected climate models and MARKAL

• Start with Energy sector for a region (e.g. North-East or New York State) – recent experience: CCSP SAP 4.5 “Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in U.S.”

• Expand to industries, settlements, society, ecology, water and land-use and other regions

Benefits:• Identify specific priorities for scientific research on the

responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems for decision makers

• Holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate

PopulationExogenous growth rates

Water & Ecology Availability, supply, distribution, consumption and treatment

Social ImpactsPublic health

Land-use & SettlementsShifts in use patterns, significant regional issues

EnergyPrimary resources availability, production, depletion, saturation, technology, pricing

Demand

Adequate Quality & Quantity

WelfareLong-term Sustainability

Utility

Population

EconomyOutput, capital accumulation, energy demands, capacity utilization

UrbanizationCore-based Development

Direct & Indirect Impacts

Energy Orders

Water for Energy Production

Energy for Water Supply and Usage

Climate ImpactsMarket and non-market damages from climate change

Atmospheric GHG Concentrations

Tangible Damages

Consumption

Acid Rain & Other Local Contamination

PolicyControl heuristics and collaborative partnerships for taxes, incentives and permits on emissions, energy, water and resource depletion

Paradigm Shift in Policy Regime

Labor

Intangible Social

Impacts

Vulnerability of Supply & Infrastructure

Tangible Damages to Land-use

Public Health Concerns

Major Feedback Processes among Energy, Climate, Water and Associated Systems

Energy Use

EmissionsGHG & Criteria Pollutants

Common Questions

What will happen?Why?What are the consequences?

Models

CAM (physical ensemble with high resolutions)POPADCIRCMM5 MARKAL