time matters webinar slides
DESCRIPTION
AWS Truepower's windNavigator staff provide insight on how highly accurate modeled wind resource data can speed up preconstruction activities while significantly reducing development costs.TRANSCRIPT
ALBANY • BARCELONA • BANGALORE August 2010
TIME MATTERSTIME MATTERSUSING WINDNAVIGATOR REPORTS AND VIRTUAL METEOROLOGICAL MASTS TO EXPEDITEUSING WINDNAVIGATOR REPORTS AND VIRTUAL METEOROLOGICAL MASTS TO EXPEDITE
THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS FOR SMALL AND DISTRIBUTED GENERATION PROJECTS
AMBER TRENDELLDIRECTOR OF SALES AND MARKETING
BRYON PHELPSPRODUCT COORDINATORPRODUCT COORDINATOR
JOHNATHAN SCOFIELDTECHNICAL SALES REP
463 NEW KARNER ROAD | ALBANY, NY 12205 | awstruepower.com | [email protected]
TECHNICAL SALES REP
Outline• Typical Wind Resource Assessment
– Timeline & CostTimeline & Cost
• Understanding the Resource– Important Guidelines and Characteristics
• Modeling Limitations– Where does uncertainty come from?– How do AWS Truepower’s models perform?
• windNavigator SolutionsR t d Vi t l M t l i l M t (VMM )– Reports and Virtual Meteorological Masts (VMMs)
– Which solution is right for you?– AWST Experiences
©2010 AWS Truepower, LLC
Typical Wind Resource Assessment:Timeline & CostTimeline & Cost
©2010 AWS Truepower, LLC
Total Time: Minimum of 1 YEAR
Monthly Data
Wind Study including:
TOTAL TIME:
Tower Siting Memo
Tower Installation
Data Checks,
Validation, and
gMCP
Analysis &Energy
1 YearEST TOTAL
COST:Reporting
Energy Analysis
COST:~$60k
©2010 AWS Truepower, LLC
Understanding the Resource:Important Guidelines andImportant Guidelines and Characteristics
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Need to know the supply’s “quality” before predicting the power extracted by a wind turbine: Speed vs. Distribution
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Must characterize wind speed and direction
VSVS.
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Must characterize wind speed and direction and temperature too…
H CTemperature
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Power of the wind is function of cube of wind speed so…Doubling the speed = 8 times the available power
• Speeds usually blow within the ramp portion of aramp portion of a turbine’s power curvecurve
• Modest errors in speed can equal p qlarge errors in power prediction
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Modeling Limitations:Where does uncertainty come from?Where does uncertainty come from?
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Model Type: different models consider different assumptions
M l Mi lMesoscale Microscale
Full equations of motion Mass conservingFull equations of motion Mass-conserving
Dynamic Adjusts for local TerrainDynamic Adjusts for local Terrain
Considers 366 days from 15 yrs Adjusts for local RoughnessConsiders 366 days from 15 yrs Adjusts for local Roughness
2.5 km resolution 200 m resolution2.5 km resolution 200 m resolution
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Resolution: Drives uncertainty associated with terrain complexity and power output
200 m Resolution 2 km Resolution 10 km Resolution
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Modeling Limitations:How do AWST’s models perform?How do AWST s models perform?
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windNavigator - AccuracyMap-Based Energy Estimates: How Accurately Can Wind Plant Performance Be Estimated Without On-Site Wind Measurements?
Comparison of map-based energy estimations with public info about existing wind plants– Standard error of 10.5% and mean bias of -3.8% found for 148 plant-years w/
data from 41 wind projects– Bias mainly due to underestimation in Northeast and Westas a y due to u de est at o o t east a d est
Conclusions:1. Map based assessments using public data, AWS Truepower’s wind
maps and modeled data sets provides a relatively high degree of confidence and statistical repeatability
2 Can provide quick and economical production estimates2. Can provide quick and economical production estimates
©2010 AWS Truepower, LLC
windNavigator - AccuracyQuantification and Applications of Wind Flow Modeling Uncertainty• Obtain quantitative estimates of the wind flow modeling uncertainty
across a range of site conditions• Develop and validate a general framework for describing the spatial• Develop and validate a general framework for describing the spatial
variation of wind flow modeling uncertaintyConclusions:1. Spatial variation in the wind flow modeling uncertainty is an
important factor to consider in designing wind projects2. Topographic similarity – if extended to encompass land surface
conditions as well as terrain – is a useful concept for understanding the spatial variation of wind flow modeling uncertaintyp g y
©2010 AWS Truepower, LLC
windNavigator Solutions:Reports and Virtual Met Masts (VMM)Reports and Virtual Met Masts (VMM)
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VMMs: Time Saving replacement for traditional campaigns
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Reports: Providing Model Assumptions & Site Characteristics
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Reports: Providing Model Assumptions & Site Characteristics
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Reports: Comparing Potential Turbine Models
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Reports: Setting the appropriate expectations with clients
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windNavigator Solutions:Which solution is right for you?Which solution is right for you?
©2010 AWS Truepower, LLC
Guidelines for choosing the right product for you:
1. Identify Site Characteristics – What is the terrain ycomplexity and land cover for your area of interest
2. Identify Energy Prediction Resolution – Focus on annual/seasonal trends or detailed monthly output
3. Identify How Many Turbines you’re interested in y y ycomparing
4. Identify requirements for funding
©2010 AWS Truepower, LLC
Comparing the Costs
Solution Timeline List Price*Solution Timeline List Price*
Typical Wind Assessment campaign Minimum 1 Year $60k
Site Surveyor Report 20 min – 24 hrs $750
Site Analyst Report 20 min 24 hrs $2kSite Analyst Report 20 min – 24 hrs $2k
Site Analyst Pro Report 20 min – 24 hrs $3k
*Prices listed for Reports are without any subscription to windNavigator.
©2010 AWS Truepower, LLC
ALBANY • BARCELONA • BANGALORE August 2010
QUESTIONSQUESTIONS
JOHNATHAN SCOFIELDTECHNICAL SALES REPRESENTATIVE
518-213-0044 EX 1086518-213-0044 EX. [email protected]
463 NEW KARNER ROAD | ALBANY, NY 12205 | awstruepower.com | [email protected]