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WAVE 2 of the TNS Public Affairs International survey
JUNE 2016
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FOREWORD, METHODOLOGY AND CONTACTS
2
TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016
After our first multi country survey
published in April, we are pleased to
present this second TNS Public Affairs
multi-country survey on the UK EU
referendum.
For this second edition of our ‘Continental
drift?’ Germany, France, Netherlands,
Ireland, Poland, Czech Republic, Denmark,
Finland and Luxemburg were surveyed, as
well as the UK, in May 2016.
Do not hesitate to contact our experts, both
at global and at a local level for further
insights and comments.
Thank you
Fieldwork was conducted from 19th to 31th
May. Approx. 1000 persons 18+ nationwide
samples were interviewed (telephone , online or face to face). Detailed
methodology available at the end of this
report.
COUNTRY CONTACTS
Global Edouard Lecerf ([email protected])
UK Desiree Lopez ([email protected]) Luke Taylor ([email protected])
France Emmanuel Rivière ([email protected])
Luxemburg Charles Margue ([email protected])
Germany Nico Siegel ([email protected]) Michael Kunert ([email protected])
Poland Piotr Kwiatkowski ([email protected]) Urszula Krassowska ([email protected])
Czech Republic Bronislav Kvasnicka ([email protected])
Netherlands Natasja van der Laan ([email protected]) Tim de Beer ([email protected])
Denmark Camilla Fjeldsoe ([email protected])
Finland Sakari Nurmela ([email protected])
Ireland Paul Moran ([email protected])
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QUESTIONNAIRE/COUNTRY
3
TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016
UK Poland France Germany Denmark Finland Czech
Republic Luxemburg Netherlands Ireland
Question Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
Question In the upcoming referendum, do you think the UK will vote to remain/leave the European Union?
Question If the UK were to leave the EU, do you think the European Union would be better off financially, worse off
financially or it would make no difference?
Question If the UK were to leave would EU work better, worse or would not change?
Question Would you like to see a similar referendum being held in your country?
Question If a similar referendum was held in your country? What would you vote?
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RESULTS
4
TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016
Note : numbers have been rounded to ensure they all add up to 100%
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64
6 30
POLAND
65 34
1
France
41 43 16
UK
*In the UK the actual referendum question was asked and the figures exclude those that “Will not vote”
TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016
5
62
13 25
FINLAND
Variations vs April 2016
63
15 22
NETHERLANDS
62
19 19
DENMARK
66
25 9
LUXEMBURG
79
15 6
GERMANY
62
24 14
CZECH REP.
+6 -7
+10 -1
+1 +2
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? Remain Leave Don’t know
70
9 21
IRELAND
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43 26 31
UK
TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016
6
In the upcoming referendum, do you think the UK will vote to... Remain Leave Don’t know
51 21 28
FINLAND
+3 =
48 26 26
POLAND
57 42
1
France
38 39 23
NETHERLANDS
41 30 29
DENMARK
53 30 18
LUXEMBURG
59 30
11
GERMANY
43 44 13
CZECH REP.
+9 -10
+4 +2
+12 -8
Variations vs April 2016
54
21 25
IRELAND
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Better off financially Worse off financially It would make no difference Don’t know
TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016
7
4
50 23 23
FINLAND
-2 +2
4
47 27 22
POLAND
6
45 27 22
NETHERLANDS
4
48
20 28
DENMARK
3
46 43
8
CZECH REP.
8
40 26 26
UK
12 34 37
17
LUXEMBURG
= +8 -2
Variations vs April 2016
3
39 50
10
GERMANY
+3 -3 +1
-2 +2 +5
If the UK were to leave the EU, do you think the European Union would be… 10
50
18 22
IRELAND
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TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016
8
5
40 37 18
POLAND
14 27 34 25
France
3
46 26 25
DENMARK
27 28 34 11
LUXEMBURG
9
42 24 25
FINLAND
Variations vs April 2016
If the UK were to leave would EU work better, worse or would not change? Would work better Would work worse Would not change Don’t know
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TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016
9
31 50
19
FINLAND
25
64
11
POLAND
38 28 34
NETHERLANDS
32 53
15
DENMARKWould you like to see a similar referendum being held in your country? Yes No Don’t know
13
61
26
IRELAND
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TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016
10
54 29 17
DENMARK
49 33
18
NETHERLANDS
If a similar referendum was held in your country? What would you vote? Remain Leave Don’t know
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APPENDIX
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TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016
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DETAILED METHODOLOGY
12
UK Poland France Germany Denmark Finland Czech
Republic Luxemburg Netherlands Ireland
Fieldwork 19-23 May 2016
30 May 2016
26-31 May 2016
30-31 May 2016
25–30 May 2016
20–25 May 2016
21–27 May 2016
27–31 May 2016
27–31 May 2016
16 May-2 June 2016
Sample
Nationwide
representa-tive
sample of
1213 adults
aged 18 +
Nationwide
representa-tive sample
of 1000
adults aged 18 +
Nationwide
representa-tive sample
of 1016
adults aged 18 +
Nationwide
representa-tive sample
of 1006
adults aged 18+
Nationwide
representa-tive sample
of 1091
adults aged 18 +
Nationwide
representa-tive sample
of 1023
adults aged 18 +
Nationwide
representa-tive sample
of 1200
adults aged 18 +
Nationwide
representa-tive sample
of 868
adults aged 18 +
Nationwide
representa-tive sample
of 981
adults aged 18 +
Nationwide
representa-tive sample
of 967
adults aged 18 +
Data collection
mode
Computer Assisted Web Interviews (CAWI)
Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI)
Computer Assisted Web Interviews (CAWI)
Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI)
Computer Assisted Web Interviews (CAWI)
Computer Assisted Web Interviews (CAWI)
Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI)
Computer Assisted Web Interviews (CAWI)
Computer Assisted Web Interviews (CAWI)
Face to face Interviews (CAPI)
TNS Public Affairs UK EU Referendum – Continental drift?– June 2016
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TNS Public Affairs
TNS Public Affairs, a Kantar company improves decision-making in the public sphere through the application
of data, insight and strategic consultancy. We work with Governments, the public sector, non-governmental
organisations, institutions, political bodies, and corporations around the world, to help them deliver more
effective policy, services and communications to the public.
Our teams blend our expertise in public policy, service design, behavioural insight, and election research, and
draw upon our world class research design capability and data collection infrastructure. We drive
methodological innovation to deliver public value to our clients.