tools and technologies for water resources planning and climate change adaptation
DESCRIPTION
Objectives:- To achieve basic understanding on steps in water resources planning- To have better understanding on tool/technology that can be used for water resource planning and climate change adaptation- To jointly assess the impacts of climate changes on water resources in Nepal - To brainstorm the options to address the identified issues for planning processesContents:Section 1 : Introduction to Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and decision support toolsSection 2 : Tools and Techniques for IWRMSection 3 : Group worksTRANSCRIPT
-
Tools and Technologies for water resources planning and climate change adaptation
Dr. Chusit Apirumanekul / Dr. Vitor Vieira Vasconcelos / Miaojie Sun
Session 3
Workshop on Climate Change Adaptation for Bhutan
26th February, 2015
Bangkok, Stockholm Environment Institute, Asia Centre
1
-
Objectives
To achieve basic understanding on steps in water resources planning
To have better understanding on tool/technology that can be used for water resource planning and climate change adaptation
To jointly assess the impacts of climate changes on water resources in Nepal
To brainstorm the options to address the identified issues for planning processes
2
-
Contents
Section 1 : Introduction to Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and decision support tools
Section 2 : Tools and Techniques for IWRM
Section 3 : Group works
3
-
Background of IWRM Water is a key driver of economic
and social development Drivers such as demography,
economic growth and climatic variability increase the stress on water resources
Decision makers have difficulties on water allocation
The basis of IWRM is that different uses of water are interdependent
Integrated management considers different uses of water resources together
4
-
Basis of IWRM
The basis of IWRM is that different uses of water are considered together.
Navigation Industrial
Flood protection Mining
Irrigation Electricity
Domestic and commercial Fishery
Environmental control / ecosystem Salinity
Recreation / tourism etc
5
-
IWRM definition
IWRM is a process which promotes the coordinated development and management of water, land and related resources, in order to maximize the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems.
GWP, TAC Background Paper No. 4: Integrated Water Resources Management
6
-
IWRM definition
IWRM (Bogardi and Nachtnebel 1994; Kindler 2000) is a systematic approach to planning and management that considers a range of supply-side and demand-side processes and actions, and incorporates stakeholder participation in decision processes.
http://www.dwaf.gov.za/iwrm/contents/about/what_is_iwrm.asp(adapted from GWP (2010))
7
-
Driving forces for water resources Population growth: more people, more water demands
Urbanization: migration from rural to urban areas leading to water supply and waste water treatment issues
Economic growth: increased demand for economic activities and land use change
Water quality: pollution from industrial, agricultural and municipal sources
Climate variability: more intense floods and droughts increase vulnerability of people (uncertainty about water cycle regimes)
8
-
9Establish status and overall goals
Water resources issues Goals and progress towards
IWRM framework Recent international
developments
Analyse gaps
Water resources management function required
Management potentials and constraints
Build commitment to reform process
Political will Awareness Multi stakeholder dialogue
Prepare strategy and action plan
Enabling environment Institutional roles Management instruments Links to national policies
Implement frameworks
IWRM framework Framework for water
infrastructure development Build capacity
Monitor and evaluate progress
Indicators of progress towards IWRM and water infrastructure development framework
Build commitment to actions
Political adoption Stakeholder acceptance Identifying financing
The IWRM Planning Cycle
Source : http://www.gwp.org/en/The-Challenge/What-is-IWRM/IWRM-Application/
IWRM has no fixed beginnings or endings
Data collection and data analysis
Communication and stakeholder
engagement
Regulatory instruments
standards, land use plan, subsidies,
charges, taxes and etc.
Allocation and conflict resolutions
Decision Support Tools
-
What are Decision Support Tools - DST?
Interactive procedures, software and databases to assist in making informed
decisions
10
-
Decision Support Tool (DST)
There is always a wide range of data available to the decision-maker
Decision Support Tool is to provide information in a form that readily supports the decision
Water resource management meteorological data, hydrologic data, geologic data, landscape, landuse, population and etc.
The use of DST to assist in water resource management issues constitute some amounts of work being performed on developing computer based decision support tools to facilitate the analysis processes.
11
-
DST to understand the integration
in the natural systems:
between land and water
between rainfall, surface water and groundwater
between water quantity and quality
between upstream and downstream
between the freshwater system and the coastal waters
Reference: IWRM at a Glance. Global Water Parnership GWP. (http://www.gwp.org/Global/The%20Challenge/Resource%20material/IWRM%20at%20a%20glance.pdf)
12
-
Functions of DST
Organize data (databases)
Visualize data
Analyze
System Modeling
Communication
13
-
Examples of Decision Support Tools
Geographical Information Systems
Geodatabases
Remote Sensing
Spatial Analysis
Web-visualization
Spatial Analysis of flow Accumulation in Ayeyarwady Delta. In: Theilen-Willige, B., & Pararas-Carayannis, G. (2009). Natural hazard assessment of SW Myanmar-a contribution of remote sensing and GIS methods to the detection of areas vulnerable to earthquakes and tsunami/cyclone flooding. Science of Tsunami Hazards, 28(2), 108
14
-
Examples of Decision Support Tools
Hydrological Modeling
River Flow
Groundwater Flow
Water Quality
Flood
Water use
Reservoir Management
WEAP and MODFLOW modelling. Available at: http://www.bgr.bund.de/EN/Themen/Wasser/Projekte/abgeschlossen/TZ/Acsad_dss/dss_fb_en.html
15
-
Examples of Decision Support Tools
Climate Change Models
Trends in temperature and rainfall
Vulnerability to climate change (based on social and economic data)
16
-
Reference: eWater Source Australia's national hydrological modelling platform (http://www.ewater.com.au/products/ewater-source/)
Will there be some climate change?
What happens if we add an irrigation project?
If we deforest an area, what is the effect on river flow and sediments?
And if we build a new water infrastructure, what are the
benefits and costs?
Considering the expected city growth, When will there be conflict with upstream water use?
If we change the crop, what is the effect on river sediments?
Practical use of DST in IWRM
17
-
Section 2 : Tools and Techniques for IWRM
1. Structural measures Flood control structures
Water harvesting
2. Non-structural measures Modelling
Remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS)
Weather indexes
Early warning system
18
-
Structural measure
Viewing as structural hard-engineered interventions, such as floodway and reservoir, as well as more natural measures, such as wetlands and natural buffers
Reducing flood and drought hazards by controlling the flow of water in rivers and streams.
Tending to transfer flood risk from one location only to increase it in another
Remaining some residual risk of
flooding
Keeping water away from people
19
-
Structural measures Flood control structures (1/2)
Flood Storage / Reservoir
Confinement of flow by dyke, levee or embankment
Channel improvement
Bypass channels or floodways
Drainage of flood water by pumping
NICOLAS ASFOURI AFP/Getty Images
20
-
Structural measures Flood control structures (2/2)
21
-
Structural measure - Rainwater harvesting (1/5)
The term rainwater harvesting refers to reuse of stored water, including water purification, and can form part of a sustainable drainage system
Most commonly, reuse will be for purposes which are less sensitive to water quality (such as irrigation, washing or toilet flushing).
22
-
Structural measure - Rainwater harvesting (2/5)
Provisioning
Can increase crop productivity, food supply and income
Can increase water and fodder for livestock and poultry
Can increase infiltration, thus recharging shallow groundwater sources and river base flow
Improves productive habitats, and increases species diversity in flora and fauna
Regulating
Can affect the temporal distribution of water in landscape
Reduces fast flows and reduces incidences of flooding
Reduces soil erosion
Bridges water supply in droughts and dry spells
Stop polluted runoff before reaching waterbodies
Source : Cities and Flooding : A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21st Century (World Bank, 2011)
23
-
Structural measure - Rainwater harvesting (3/5)
The storage of rainwater in numerous small tanks helps in reducing peak runoff and controlling overflowing of drainage infrastructure.
This is more cost effective than storing rainwater in larger reservoirs or improving the carrying capacity of the drainage infrastructure.
This however requires effective public participation and awareness generation.
http://hk-magazine.com/city-living/article/underground-hong-kong
Source : Cities and Flooding : A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21st Century (World Bank, 2011)
24
-
Rainwater harvesting (4/5) Example in Brazil
Mountainous context: Few plain places with deep
soil, to dig larger ponds
Difficult access for tractors
Embankment ponds in steep slopes can break and offer more risks
Many small scattered embankment ponds may offer less risk
Ponds along roads to facilitate the access
Source: http://www.panoramio.com/photo/14270801
Source : http://projetobarraginhas.blogspot.com/2012/09/fazendas-produtoras-de-agua-primeira.html
25
-
Rainwater harvesting (5/5) - Household level
Rainfall
Roof top collection
Open space harvesting
Direct storage
Groundwater recharge
Filtering chamber
Use
Source: Chennai Metro Water. http://chennaimetrowater.gov.in/departments/rainwater.htm
http://www.bloggang.com/viewblog.php?id=lifeinbelgique&date=01-06-2011&group=27&gblog=1
26
-
Non-structural measure
Based on the concept of risk awareness -how to live with flood and drought
Preventing flood and drought damage based on acceptance them as natural processes that cannot be completely controlled
NOT related to infrastructure
Ex:
Changing crop patterns
Keeping people away from water
27
-
Example of flood routing models
Hydrologic routing (simple) balancing of inflow, outflow and volume of storage through use of continuity equation
Hydraulic routing (complex) more accurate and is based on solution of
continuity equation
momentum equation
28
0
t
A
x
Q0)(
11 2
fo SSg
x
yg
A
Q
xAt
Q
A
t
SOI
-
Hydrological and Hydraulics model Hydrological modelSimulation of processes in turning rainfall into surface runoff and simplified channel runoff
Hydraulics modelSimulation of flood propagation in the channel (open channel / closed conduit) which may include backwater effects, flow through hydraulics structure and 2-D flows)
29
-
Hydrological / Rainfall-
Runoff Model
1D&2D Hydraulic
model / flood routing
Flood map (50-year
return period)
Rainfall analysis 50-year return period rainfall event
Flood modelling system
30
-
Crest Model for Bhutan
CREST Coupled Routing and Excess Storage
Hydrological Model for each cell in a raster
Weather + Surface characteristics
Water Balance
Excess of water is routed downstream to next cellSource: Crest 2.1. User Manual. National Weather Center. Norman, USA. 2015.http://hydro.ou.edu/files/Crest_Workshops/CRESTv2.1/CREST-User-Manual-v2.1_Fortran.pdf
31
-
Crest Viewer - Bhutan
Available at: http://apps.geoportal.icimod.org/BhutanCrest/#32
-
Case Study Impact of Climate Change in Bhutan Rivers
Simulated climate change of + 1.5 oC in 2050 and 2 scenarios of +2.5 oC and + 4.9 oC for 2100
HBV (Hydrologiska ByrnsVattenbalansavdelning) Hydrological Model Distributed model (cell by cell analysis)
Input: rainfall, temperature and land use
Calibrated with gauging stations
Output for each cell: stream flow, evaporation, soil moisture, groundwater storage
Beldring, S. 2011. Climate change impacts on the flow regimes of rivers in Bhutan and possibleconsequences for hydropower development. NVE.Available at: webby.nve.no/publikasjoner/report/2011/report2011_04.pdf
33
-
ResultsChange in mean annual runoff (mm) for 2050,
model Echam A2
34
-
ResultsChange in mean annual runoff (mm) for 2100,
model Echam A2
35
-
NON-STRUCTURAL : GIS
36
-
Source:http://www.gislounge.com/what-is-gis/http://www.esri.com/what-is-gis
Geographic Spatial data related to the Earth
Information Other attribute data in tabulate as information about each of the spatial feature
System A technology that allows you to visualize, question, analyze,and interpret data
What is GIS?
37
-
How data is stored?
Layers
Source:http://www.gislounge.com/what-is-gis/
Attributes in the Geodatabase
38
-
Case Study in Bhutan
Glaciers have retreated by 20-30 meters annually especially in the Bhutan Himalayas, leading to a rough estimation of about 500 meters retreat in the last 25 years.
Source: Chhophel, Mr. Karma G. Climate
change adaptation and glof risk reduction in
the region and beyond: current developments
and opportunities. In: Glacial Lake Outburst
Flood (GLOF) Reducing Risks and Ensuring
Preparedness. 5-7 December, 2013.
Proceedings Summary.
Karma. 2008. Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan. Department of Geology and Mines. NCAP.
39
-
Glacier Dynamics in Bhutan
http://apps.geoportal.icimod.org/BhutanGlacier/index.html#Mountain Geoportal. Glacier Dynamics in Bhutan App. Servir Himalaya.
40
-
WEAP : WATER EVALUATION AND PLANNING SYSTEM
41
-
Integrates stream flow and water demands Exploration of future scenarios for decision support
Changes in water use Strategies for allocation Structural measures (e.g., reservoirs) Climate change
Many sub-models (glacial melting, finance, groundwater, hydropower, water quality, among others)
Developed by Stockholm Environment Institute Free license for government, academic and non-profit
organizations in developing countries
Available at: http://www.weap21.org/42
-
Case Study WEAP model for Andes mountains of Peru(Rmac and Santa Basins)
Andes in Peru. Photo: SEI/IRD - 2010
Modeling the hydrological impacts of climate change in glacial mountains
SEI and IRD. 2010. Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Hydrology. World Bank Reports. Available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2278
43
-
Results of the model
Accelerated glacier melting
Changes in mountain wetlands
hydrology (environmental impact)
Average discharge decrease
Reduction in peak flow discharge
Changes in glaciers in 2036 with+ 2 degrees celsius
Reduction of 21% of discharge in La Balsa sub-basin
Different scenarios of climate change in 2040
+ 0.5 degrees+ 2 degrees
44
-
WEAP : WATER CITY MANAGEMENT BANGKOK CASE
45
-
Water SupplyMWA water supply Chao Phraya River : 60 m3/s
Mae Klong Dam : 45 m3/s
Residential, Industrial and others
Groundwater supply Unlimited supply
Private withdrawal in any province
Percentage of non-residential water supplies from MWA
Sources of surface water supply
Source of GW supply
46
-
Water demand
Water demand from residence is estimated by LPCD (litre per capita per day) multiplied by 365 days (200 LPCD)
Other water demands (business, industrial, public and others) is obtained from MWA water sale by sectors in Nonthaburi and Samutprakarn
LPCD in Bangkok has been increasing
Water consumption = Fn (household size, rising income and water price)
47
-
48
-
NON-STRUCTURAL : WEATHER INDEXES (DROUGHT INDEX)
49
-
Approaches to analyze droughts
Meteorological
Hydrological
Vegetational
SocioeconomicSource: Wilhite, D.A. and M.H. Glantz. 1985. Understanding the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions. Water Int., 10:111-120.
Runoff generation
Water use
Rainfall
Evaporation
Stream flow
Water in the soil
Means to access water
50
-
SPEI Standardized Precipitation Index
WMO. 2012. Standardized Precipitation Index User Guide.Available at: http://www.wamis.org/agm/pubs/SPI/WMO_1090_EN.pdf
51
Precipitation Evapotranspiration(calculated from temperature)
SPEI Values
SPEI
-
Global drought monitor. http://sac.csic.es/spei/map/maps.html
Monitoring SPEI - November 2014
-
NON-STRUCTURAL : EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
53
-
Flash Flood Monitoring
Mekong River Commission Flash Flood Guidance system
To provide real-time informational guidance products for flash flood warning (diagnostic system, NOT prediction)
A rapid evaluation on the potential for a flash flood for a specific location
Flash Flood Guidance = Satellite rainfall estimate + telemetry system + soil moisture
54
-
Soil Water Saturation Fraction Satellite Estimate Rainfall
55
-
Flash Flood Guidance
1-hour 3-hour
56
-
Group exercises (60+30 mins)
1. Divide into 3 groups (Southwest, Middle and East) and discuss on characteristics, climate pattern and climate change impacts on climate pattern (5 mins)
2. List out the impacts of CC on water resources issues in details (10 mins)
3. Discuss on the potential tools/technologies (10 mins)
4. Identify gaps on those identified tools/technologies (15 mins)
5. Discuss on potential solutions to address the gaps (20 mins)
6. Report to plenary + comments (30 mins : 10 mins each)
57