tourism planning & development

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Tourism Planning & DevelopmentWk 1 Course introduction

Lecture 01-1

1. Place in curriculum and organization

• Level 7 paper – 15 points

• 150 learning hours (of which 36 lecture and tutorial hours):• Lectures: Monday from 4pm to 6pm at WF613

• Tutorials: Wednesday from 5pm to 6pm at WF613

• Contact possibilities:• Lecturer: Bart Neuts

• Office WH317, contact hours every Monday from 2pm to 4pm

• Email: [email protected]

• Phone: +64 921 9999 ext. 6692

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2. Course overview

• What?• Analysing the role of decision-makers and planners and the procedures of planning and control

in order to develop (and hopefully achieve sustainable forms of) tourism

• Why?• Identifying goals and objectives guides decision-making on a longer time horizon

• Can protect resources and integrate different levels/sectors/agencies

• Helps in coordinating, evaluating, developing guidelines and standards and make alterations if needed

• Visionary planning?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zv_7dKTS14oCopyright: Al Jazeera (2011)

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• A better example:

• Went against conventional 1950s

theme park wisdom regarding pricing

and gateway entrance

• Dealt with sceptical investors and had

the potential to bankrupt Disney

• Grew to become the third most visited

theme park, with 16.8 million visitors in

2014

Glen Scarborough

• Course structure:

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3. Goals and learning tools

The final goal should be to show long-

term planning skills with elements of

creativity within a context of historical

and contemporary analysis

• Recommended book for background reading:

• See Paper Study Guide for list of supplementary reading that could during the course. Learning tools are primarily there to help with assignments and provide additional information to the classes

Dredge, D., & Jenkins, J. (2007). Tourism planning and policy. Milton, Australia: John Wiley and

Sons.

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4. Assessments

• 3 assessments:

• Assessment 1: Mini-tests (online)• Due date: One week after tests are uploaded

• Test 1: due date 11 August, 11:59pm



• Test 4: due date 22 September, 11:59pm

• Test 5: due date 29 September, 11:59pm

• Test 6: due date 14 October, 11:59pm

• Submission instructions: Mini-tests to be completed in Blackboard, under the tab ‘Assessment 1: Mini-tests’

• Requirements: You are required to complete a minimum of 4 out of 6 mini-tests or you will receive a DNC for this assessment. If you hand in more than 4 mini-tests, the 4 best ones will be counted towards your total for assessment 1.

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• Assessment 2: Gamification exercise• Due date: Week 9 in class – attendance mandatory

• Assessment brief:

• Aspects of gamification have recently been introduced in various planning settings as a means to internalize shared community visions in the planning process. It is an interactive way to come to an understanding of various stakeholder perspectives, goals, power-relations, and barriers

• The game is based on the redevelopment plans of Wynyard Quarter, as part of The Waterfront Plan 2012 by Waterfront Auckland (https://www.panuku.co.nz/www/uploads/moduleresourceitems/the-waterfront-plan-2012-9e08935901.pdf). More specifically, the idea of a waterfront stadium as a signature building is explored

• The game introduces various character roles, each with their own ideas and wishes. Roles include Waterfront Auckland, Auckland Transport, political opposition, residents of Wynyard Quarter, residents of the wider Auckland region, commercial establishments, project developers, and Ngāti Whātua. You will be assigned one of these roles at random and during the course of the game you have to protect the interest of your specific role

• Requirements: Presence and active participation during gamification assessment will give you full marks on this assessment

https://vimeo.com/40396690Copyright: Games from Cities (2012)

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• Assessment 3: Individual written report• Due date: Friday 20 October (only soft copy needed)

• As the culmination of the paper, you will write an individual report that analyses the feasibility of a new waterfront stadium on the location of the tank farm in Wynyard Quarter

• The report should be structured as:

1. Introduction to the topic (i.e. historical background of area, development need, goals for development)

2. Stakeholder mapping for Wynyard Quarter

3. An inventory of recreational and tourist facilities

4. Analysis of transportation characteristics in the neighbourhood (pedestrian, cycling, car, public transport)

5. Introduction of waterfront stadium and analysis of building requirements (in terms of RMA) and estimated positive and negative impacts

6. Conclusion

7. Reference list

• Requirements: a minimum of 3000 words

Multimedia

Al Jazeera (2011). Al Jazeera on travel to Turkmenistan. Retrieved July 16, 2017, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zv_7dKTS14o

Games for Cities (2012). 6-minute AnimationExplaining Play the City. Retrieved July 16, 2017, from https://vimeo.com/40396690

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Tourism Planning & DevelopmentWk 2 Introduction to the planning concept and the

Lecture 02‐1 tourism system

Content

• In this introductory session we focus on defining planning and development: how do they relate to one another?

• Furthermore, we look at particularities of tourism; it’s good and bad sides to function as a development tool

• Finally, attention is paid to some basic planning rules

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1. Case introduction: SALK, a story of change

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDiqj4rrJg4Copyright: AFP news agency (2012)

• On 24 October 2012, Ford management declared full closure of car manufacturing factory within 2 years, notwithstanding earlier promises of guaranteed employment until 2020

• 4,300 people will lose their job directly, with an estimated ripple effect of another 5,700 layoffs, mostly in the province of Limburg

TUBS

Steinbach

Iha holiday adds Bert Heymans

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• ‘Strategisch Actieplan Limburg in het Kwadraat’ (SALK): in 2013 the government decides on a plan to reform Limburg economy, with a capital influx of 217.5 million EUR (10 million for tourism projects)

• Aim: 3,000 jobs in the short run, 10,000 over the period 2013‐2019

United Kingdom Government

“Never let a good crisis go to waste.”

2. Planning and development: defining the concepts

• Mindmapping your state of knowledge:

Planning and development

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• What’s a plan? Tourism planning is…• Organising the future to achieve certain objectives. The purpose is to create plans of action for a foreseeable future and implement these actions

• Closely related to strategic planning/management, but focus is on physical planning, land use, and design

• It is:• Future‐oriented

• Developing a strategic (longer‐term) vision

• Anticipating (or reacting) on change

• Acquiring knowledge and providing recommended approaches

• Evaluating different courses of action

• Value‐laden and political

• Gunn (2002); Inskeep (1991)

• May be short term (tactical or operational planning) or long term (strategic planning) but should always start from a long‐range vision

• In reality, though, long‐range planning can be difficult to achieve and is strongly linked to legislative periods

WTO (1994, p.9) Andy Chase

• WTO (1994)

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• Typical planning hierarchy:

VisionThe dream

MissionThe what and why

Objectives How much of what will be accomplished by when

StrategiesThe how

Action plansWhat change will happen, who will do it, and when

Strategic

Tactical

Operational

Where do we want to be five years from now?

Why do we exist? What do we aim to achieve through our existence?

Breaks down ambitions in smaller, quantifiable goals.

Focus on day to day running of the organization and sets out the roadmap to achieve objectives/goals.

Linking objectives with available resources and budgets.

• Pitt & Koufopoulos (2012)

• Can you fill in this canvas for Auckland?

VisionThe dream

MissionThe what and why

Objectives How much of what will be accomplished by when

StrategiesThe how

Action plansWhat change will happen, who will do it, and when

Look in: http://www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/plans/citycentremasterplan2012.pdf

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• Main objectives of tourism planning:• Increase employment, wages, increased tax revenues

• Increase visitor satisfaction

• Avoiding decline by prolonging maturity phase

• Integrating tourism with existing local social and economic life

• Promoting public and private sector interaction

• Protection and better utilization of natural and cultural resources

Development!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QiYoYlPdR3UCopyright: 9News Sydney (2013)

• How to define development?• In a biological sense: to progress from simple to complex stages in the growth of an individual or the evolution of a species

• To bring something to a more advanced or expanded stage (usually: increase revenue, jobs, conservation)

• Tourism planning + development:

The process: making outlines, maps, schemes, strategies etc.

The content: the available resources and the ‘species’ (i.e. the tourism industry, the destination) in need of evolution

The outcome: bringing the tourism industry, the destination, etc. to a more advanced stage

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3. Why tourism as development strategy?

• Growing industry with backward linkages• Has proven quite resilient• Labour‐intensive• Takes place on location (no outsourcing possible)

• Does not necessarily require huge upfront investments (utilization of ‘free’ infrastructure)

• Provides jobs for unskilled labour as alternative to manufacturing industry

• Work‐conditions in tourism and hospitality industry not optimal

• Can lead to price increase and speculation (e.g. on housing market)

• Adds pressure on local resources (e.g. displacement of locals, cultural change)

winnifredxoxo

The good The bad

• Sharpley (2009)

4. Some basic planning rules

Development

plan

a. Participatory

b. Incremental

growth

c. Diversifiedd. Multilevel

e. Demand and supply focused Helps to generate

quick‐wins and create goodwill

Create bigger products; Linking private investment with public infrastructure

Levels can range from imposed development, tokenistic involvement, meaningful participation to true empowerment

Avoid creation of one‐basket economies

Focus investment funds where it matters most

• Godfrey & Clarke (2000); Timothy (2011)

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a. Participatory development:• Communities are the basic elements of tourism. They are hosts, main attractors, and unique tourism ‘products’

• Communities often bear the majority of negative impacts while benefits are spread

Trude Pettersen

Il Globo

Cristina Rocca


b. Incremental growth:• While planning should necessarily have a long‐term outlook (basic objectives should remain fixed), in the implementation phase the aim should be in incremental development

• Using existing resources as a baseline of future development and achieving Incremental growth in these allows for quick‐wins and flexibility to still adapt the plan where needed

• It further helps to minimize initial investment needs and get partners on‐board

• Together with monitoring, it can signal limits of acceptable change of local community

c. Diversified:• Tourism development should be part of a diversified economy: tourism is no economic panacea but best suited as supplement to local economy

• Diversification in products and industries could alleviate strong negative effects of market shifts and contributes to indirect effects via linkages


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d. Multilevel planning:• Collaborative efforts are needed between types of planners and, hierarchically, between plans on different levels

• Planning happens on:

• Subsidiarity principle: social problems should be dealt with at the most immediate (or local) level consistent with their solution

• Lower level plans ought to be built on higher level plans: site design and development is part of an environmental whole (place and placemaking)

International (although rare)

National

Regional

Destination zone

Site Private

Public

e. Demand and supply‐focused:

• Consider that:

Gunn (2002, p.34)

Demand side Supply side

‐ Different markets seek different things need for proper market segmentation

‐ Forecasting of demand is desirable but difficult

‐ Economic impacts come primarily through service businesses (hotels, motels, restaurants, shops), but these are facilitators, not attractors

‐ Attractions are the primary causes for travel‐ Attractions depend greatly upon location

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5. Back to the case: SALK

• Start of planning process:

An (un)expected tragedy fuels a need for change and redevelopment of a region

The aim of the plan becomes clear: increasing employment opportunities and regional income

Outlook of the plan over the period 2013‐2019 (quite short term for a strategic plan)

Wikilmages

skeeze

MaeM

• How does the plan deal with collaborative efforts?• Public: 3 levels involved

• Private: of the 9 proposed investment and development projects, 2 deal directly with private partners

• RMW NV• BVBA The Cosmopolitan Chicken

‘State’ (Flanders)

Province (Limburg)

Various municipalities

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• Participatory development and demand‐supply focus?• Mainly limited to tokenistic involvement information moments for community members but no active involvement in projects

• Projects themselves focused entirely on creating attractions rest of tourism system stays outside of the scope

• Incremental growth?• Partners that receive financial means have to show progress at least twice a year, but no specific focus on incremental growth

Conclusion

• Planning and development are interrelated concepts: development (i.e. evolution, growth) is the envisioned outcome of a plan

• Plans exist on different timeframes (from long‐term 10+ years to short term operational) but should always have a long‐term vision in mind

• Plans should ideally be based on: participatory development, collaboration between different levels, incremental growth, diversification, and an understanding of supply and demand

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References

Auckland Council (2012). City Centre Masterplan 2012. Auckland, New Zealand: Auckland Council.

Godfrey, K., & Clarke, J. (2000). The tourism development handbook: A practical approach to planning and marketing. London, United Kingdom: Cassell.

Gunn, C.A. (2002). Tourism Planning. Basics, Concepts, Cases (Fourth Edition). New York, NY: Routledge.

Inskeep, E. (1991). Tourism Planning: An Integrated and Sustainable Development Approach. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons.

Pitt, M.R., & Koufopoulos, D. (2012). Essentials of Strategic Management. London, United Kingdom: Sage.

Sharpley, R. (2009). Tourism Development and the Environment: Beyond Sustainability? London, United Kingdom: Earthscan.

Timothy, D. J. (2011). Cultural Heritage and Tourism. An introduction. Bristol, United Kingdom: Channel View.

WTO (1994). National and Regional Tourism Planning. Methodologies and Case Studies. London, United Kingdom: Routledge.

Multimedia

9News Sydney (2013). Darling Harbour redevelopment. Retrieved July 23, 2017, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QiYoYlPdR3U

AFP news agency (2012). Ford to close Belgian Genk plant, cutting 4,300 jobs. Retrieved July 22, 2017, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDiqj4rrJg4

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Tourism Planning & DevelopmentWk 2 The planning process

Tutorial 02‐2

Content

• In theory, the planning process is rational and hierarchical, attention will be paid to the different steps of the process

• As part of the study preparation, project management is introduced to guide, manage, and monitor progress

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1. A stepwise planning process

a. Study preparation• Formulating terms of reference (TOR) = describe purpose and structure of project,

deliverables, time horizon, etc.

• Selecting the technical team, appointing a steering committee, organizing study activities

Study preparation

Determination of objectives

Survey of elements

Analysis and synthesis

Policy and plan formulation

Formulation of other objectives

Implementing and monitoring

• Inskeep (1991)

b. Determination of objectives• State the objectives for the development of tourism, the end goal (also found in TOR)• Can first be established in a preliminary matter and later refined based on results of the

survey and analyses and the plan formulation

c. Survey of all elements• Involves collecting quantitative and qualitative data on aspects such as patterns of tourism,

characteristics of competing tourist destinations, existing and potential attractions, etc.• Categorizing elements and evaluating them with respect to accessibility, feasibility of

development, quality, market trends, etc.

d. Analysis and synthesis• Integrating various components and identifying opportunities

e. Policy and plan formulation• Involves the preparation and evaluation of alternative development scenarios• Based on an evaluation of scenarios, final policies and plans are selected and refined

f. Formulation of additional recommendations

g. Implementation and monitoring• Monitoring can detect problems that arise so remedial measures can be taken

• Inskeep (1991)

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• Example: (see case handout)• Bhutan, located in the eastern Himalaya Mountains is known for its restrictive policy on tourism development

• The case describes the adoption of a tourism development plan as early as 1986

• Do you recognize various aspects of the stepwise planning procedure in this plan? How has the plan helped in developing tourism in Bhutan, given your current knowledge of the country and the situation?

Douglas J. McLaughlin

2. Project preparation and the importance of project management

• Project management is the application of knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques to project activities to meet project requirements

• A project is typically characterized by:• An extensive set of activities

• Constraints on activity precedence

• Completion of the project follows from completion of all activities

• Time and budget constraints

• Some valuable and logical project management techniques are the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and the Critical Path Method (CPM), which have since largely merged into a hybrid technique

• Reece & Svaan (2012)

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• The PERT/CPM method is based on a network diagram of activity precedence relationship and is focused on the total time it takes to traverse the network from start to finish

• Necessary starting point of analysis:• List of activities

• Relationships between activities (i.e. predecessors)

• Expected activity duration. If duration uncertain, an estimate of the probability distribution of duration is required


Reece & Svaan (2011, p.2)

• From the table a network diagram (often also depicted as a Gantt chart) is created:

• Next, the critical path is identified. This is the longest path through the network that will determine completion time of project


Reece & Svaan (2011, p.3)

Forward pass algorithm:ES = earliest time the activity can beginEF = earliest time the activity can finish

Backward pass algorithm:LS = latest time activity can start without delaying projectLF = latest time activity can finish without delaying project

Rules:‐ Set ES = 0 for activities without predecessor‐ For all activities: EF = ES + duration‐ For activity with predecessors: ES = largest EF time of all predecessors

Rules:‐ LF for last activity = EF of last activity‐ For all activities: LS = LF – expected duration‐ For activity with successors: LF = smallest LS time of all successors

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• Advantages of the two‐pass algorithm:• Total slack for each activity can then be calculated as LS – ES (or LF – EF). This shows flexibility in starting time for activities without jeopardizing project completion time

• Indicates the critical path of activities that need to be monitored since a slip in schedule here will affect entire project

• Can be used for time‐cost trade‐offs (i.e. “crashing” an activity): accelerating an activity by allocating more resources to it

• Reece & Svaan (2012)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chzhX4fnOGsCopyright: The Times of India (2017)

• Finally, budgets can be controlled by adding resources to activities:• Rather than budgeting corresponding to the organizational structure, this uses an activity (or group of activities) as the basic accounting unit

• Time‐phased budgeted costs (Planned Value) are compared to the budgeted costs of the work that has actually been completed (Earned Value)

• Budgeted costs of the work that has actually been completed (Earned Value) are compared to the actual costs incurred (Actual Costs)

• Reece & Svaan (2012)Reece & Svaan (2011, p.7)

Two useful metrics:Cost Performance Index (CPI) = EV/ACSchedule Performance Index (SPI) = EV/PV

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• Useful planning tool for the study preparation phase: http://www.projectlibre.org/• Links projects to resources and responsibilities

• Creates Gantt‐charts

• Tracks progress of sub‐parts and allows for easy extensions of deadlines by linking tasks with predecessors

• A useful tutorial to get you started:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IcbuqfuEvwCopyright: CarterRadley Courses (2016)

Conclusion

• The planning process should follow a logical sequence which, when done correctly, helps in identifying opportunities and managing change

• At the start of the project, in the preparation phase, project management tools are useful for understanding the project flow and identifying critical activities

• During the course of the project, the project management helps in monitoring progress and budgetary control

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References


Reece, J. S., & Svaan, E. (2012). Note on Project Management (W92C44). University of Michigan: WDI Publishing.

Multimedia

CarterRadley Courses (2016). Video 3 modelling a network diagram in ProjectLibre. Retrieved July 25, 2017, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IcbuqfuEvw

The Times of India (2017). Fund crunch hits signature bridge project, Delhi govt assures of no further delay. Retrieved July 25, 2017, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chzhX4fnOGs

2/08/2017

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Tourism Planning & DevelopmentWk 3 Choosing tourism as a driver for change:

Lecture 03‐1 recognizing impacts

Content

• The changing nature of tourism development theories is discussed, with its culmination in the form of context‐specific sustainability thinking

• Various impacts are discussed as affecting the chance of achieving sustainable development

• A definition of sustainable development is given, and its application in tourism situations is discussed

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1. Evolving tourism development theories

• The principal reason for promoting tourism is its perceived role as a catalyst for economic growth. However, tourism also has important downsides and requires a good knowledge on opportunities and constraints in order to understand trade‐offs

Mattes

• After advent of mass tourism in 1960s, conventional wisdom of tourism as unconditional benefit was questioned

• Mismanaged growth led to environmental pollution and social conflict

• Contemporary planning realizes that development involves much more than jobs and income, including social, ethical, environmental, and political factors

• Godfrey & Clarke (2000); Sharpley(2009)

• The shifting focus on what encompasses ‘development’ is noticeable in the changing development theories since the 1950s:

• Sharpley (2009)

1950s‐1960s

•Modernization theory: Dominance of western economic growth‐based models

1960s‐1970s

•Modernization theory/dependency theory: Underdevelopment the result of domination/exploitation by developed countries

1970s‐1980s

•Neo‐liberalism: Promotion of the free market

1980s•Neo‐liberalism/alternative development: Awareness of effects of development on different cultures/societies

1990s

•Alternative/sustainable development: Dominance of sustainable development paradigm but emergence of post‐development school

2000s

•A new paradigm?: Post‐development; rejection of overarching development concepts and beginning of a more fractured, context‐specific perspective

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• Redefining development beyond economic growth theory does not only depend on ideological changes but also on destination development cycle:

Newly developing destinations:‐ Possibility to learn from destinations where things went wrong

‐ Aiming for slow, small‐scale growth

‐ Tourism as a means to support a small community, community‐driven and local tourism matures together with destination

Mature destinations:‐ Some destinations might not be able to cope with growth in numbers

‐ Attempting to change tourism profiles (increase in quality, not numbers)

‐ Regenerate existing areas instead of developing new ones

‐ Demarketing of sensitive areas via increasing price, increasing capacity warnings, reducing advertising, reducing distribution outlets, etc.

Butler (1980, p.7)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dH573B1bkHICopyright: HBO (2014)

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2. Recognizing potential tourism impacts

• Economic changes:Category Positive Negative

Employment ‐ New job creation, often at entry‐level (requiring little or moderate skills)

‐ Stability in economic basis; not easily outsourced/relocated

‐ New jobs often low‐paid, seasonal, part time‐ Turnover of staff relatively high compared to

alternative economic activities‐ Management jobs might be filled with outside

experts (limited growth opportunities)

Public income ‐ Growth in tourism and tourism enterprises increases tax revenue

‐ Increased parking and admission fees for public sector facilities

‐ Possibilities of bed tax or tourist tax

‐ Depending on economic diversification of the destination and specific tourist demand, leakages due to imports and foreign ownership can be significant

Diversificationand regeneration

‐ Tourism can be complementary to other functions (especially in towns and cities)

‐ Compared to manufacturing and extractive industries, tourism is relatively clean

‐ Land rents might go up when physical space becomes a premium

‐ When tourist‐related shops are more profitable than locally‐focused shops, local functions might be crowded out

• Godfrey & Clarke (2000)

• Socio‐cultural changes:Category Positive Negative

Quality of life ‐ Helps to improve living standards of those directly involved in the industry

‐ Supports diversity of restaurants, theatres, and other cultural entertainment

‐ Influences the availability of goods for sale in local shops

‐ Greater care being placed on overall environmental quality

‐ New opportunities for recreation and other leisure pursuits

‐ Increased traffic congestion and crowding of public spaces

‐ Longer queues in local shops and facilities‐ Inflation of prices in local shops and assortment

focused on visitors‐ Petty theft and pickpockets‐ Social problems of drugs, alcohol, crime, and

prostitution‐ Can threaten local traditions and lead to cultural

change

Sense of place ‐ Revitalizing local culture and traditions (especially crafts, folklore, dance, and music)

‐ Establishing or enhancing a sense of pride in local heritage

‐ Enriching local understanding and interest in history and culture

‐ Influences industries and businesses to relocate or expand in the area

‐ Festivals, activities, and traditions might become commodified and inauthentic

‐ Crafts may be modified and mass produced to make them more saleable


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• Environmental changes:

Category Positive Negative

Built environment

‐ Stimulates funds for conservation and rehabilitation of old buildings, sites, and monuments

‐ Encourages the regeneration, redevelopment, and landscaping of town and city districts, as well as redundant industrial and commercial sites

‐ Renewed interest in transport systems and infrastructure

‐ Problems of architectural pollution‐ Creation of ‘strip’ or ‘ribbon’ development and

urban sprawl‐ Straining of local service infrastructure (fresh

water supply, sewerage systems, electricity)‐ Traffic congestion, parking problems, and

damaging effects of fumes from tourist vehicles‐ Wear and tear of stone fabric, graffiti, and

vandalism

Natural environment

‐ Creation of park areas and attention to importance of wildlife and biological preservation

‐ Has drawn attention to need for environmental stewardship

‐ Loss of vegetation because of development of visitor facilities

‐ Trampling of plants, compaction and erosion of soil

‐ General spread of garbage and litter‐ Reduction in water tables for consumption, and

increase of pollution from run‐off and dumping of untreated sewage

‐ Disruption of animal breeding patterns and loss of habitat

‐ Direct loss of wildlife population through hunting and trade in exotic species


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjMMcxe1C64Copyright: Journeyman Pictures (2016)

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3. Tourism impacts: the importance of context

• The nature of impacts are destination specific. There is no simple cause‐effect relationship between tourists and their effects

• The existence/relevance of impacts is influenced by:• Local morphology (including the political, social, and economic structure of destination)

• Local ecology and environmental quality

• Type of tourism activity and number of visitors involved

• Difference in social attributes between residents and visitors

• Nature of interaction taking place

Estial

Krzysztof Belczyński • Godfrey & Clarke (2000)

4. Sustainable development, a difficult concept

• Recognizing the potential of tourism development within the limitations of potential for negative impacts is central within ideas of sustainable development

• “…development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987, p.43)

Andrew Sunray

Main elements of definition:• Needs• Future generations• Limits• Development

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• Centrality of needs in definition makes it a very anthropocentric concept

• Capital stock model translates development into availability of 4 capital goods in society, identified as: Natural or environmental capital, Production capital, Human capital, Institutional capital

• Capital stock model gives rise to two polar approaches to sustainability:

• Bachus (2009); Stern (1997)

Weak (non‐conservationist) Strong (conservationist)

‐ Development is sustainable as long as total sum of capital goods stays at least equal

‐ Allows for decrease and ultimate destruction of some capitals as long as substitution is possible

‐ Main goal: development

‐ Sustainable development only reached if none of the 4 production capitals diminish

‐ Requires subsistence of the resource base; substitution between capitals not a valid alternative

‐ Main goal: protection

Weak sustainability problematic because of:‐ Imperfect information‐ Intrinsic value‐ Substitution problems‐ Discontinuity in systemic changes (change not linear)

• So when talking about sustainable development, do we mean the same thing?

• In tourism there is:

• Resource‐based tradition: a constricted economic development, within restrictions set by the environment and the cultural capital

• Activity‐based tradition: allows for modification of resources based on needs of the industry, assuming that the tourist industry itself has an inherent limit to growth

• Community‐based tradition: involving community stakeholders in finding appropriate amount of resource extraction and set standards for development

• Neuts (2016)

“The private tourism industry views it largely in economic and marketing terms. How can the tourism market be sustained and grow in the long term? The local community may see it in terms of socio‐economic benefits and cultural preservation. An environmental NGO would present more of an ecological perspective. (USAID, 2005, p.5)

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Davis & Tisdell (1995, p.34)

Dixon et al. (1993, p.10)

5. Impactless tourism? The search for unicorns

• One thing should be clear: there is no such thing as a free lunch environmental conservation costs money. There’s always an opportunity costs

• Difficulties to achieve a true ‘triple bottom line’ approach:• Interconnected nature between capitals

• Different agendas for different stakeholders

• Scale of impacts (e.g. ‘tragedy of the commons’)

• Law of unintended consequences (or ‘the possum principle’): actions always have unanticipated or unintended effects, exacerbated by common fallacies such as hindsight bias

Domenichino

David Cook

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• As a result, we can often notice a cyclical process in tourism development and opportunities for sustainability:

Dodds (2007, p.318)

Conclusion

• We all know the three elements of sustainable development, but defining them is easier than accomplishing them

• Tourism is not a ‘smokeless’ industry and the potential for both positive and negative impacts is a reality that needs to be dealt with

• It is not just a balancing act, but also a management act of decision‐making to aim for any form of sustainable development

• Sustainable development should not be conceived as a product, but rather as a process, an ideal to work towards

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References

Bachus, K. (2009). Duurzame ontwikkeling: concept en beleid. In Leuvens OnderzoeksNetwerk Duurzame Ontwikkeling (Ed.), Duurzame ontwikkeling: Een multidisciplinaire visie (pp. 15‐35). Leuven, Belgium: Acco.

Butler, R. (1980). The concept of tourism area cycle of evolution: Implications for management of resources. Canadian Geographer, 24(1), 5‐12. doi: 10.1111/j.1541‐0064.1980.tb00970.x

Davis, D., & Tisdell, C. (1995). Recreational scuba‐diving and carrying capacity in marine protected areas. Ocean & Coastal Management, 26(1), 19‐40. doi: 10.1016/0964‐5691(95)00004‐L

Dixon, J.A., Scura, L.F., & van’t Hof, T. (1993). Ecology and Microeconomics as “Joint Products”: The Bonaire Marine Park in the Caribbean (LATEN Dissemination Note 6). Retrieved from The World Bank.

Dodds, R. (2007). Sustainable Tourism and Policy Implementation: Lessons from the Case of Calviá, Spain. Current Issues in Tourism, 10(4), 296‐322. doi: 10.2167/cit278.0


Neuts, B. (2016). An econometric approach to crowding in touristic city centres: Evaluating the utility effect on local residents. Tourism Economics, 22(5), 1055‐1074. doi: 10.5367/te.2015.0477

Sharpley, R. (2009). Tourism Development and the Environment: Beyond Sustainability? London, United Kingdom: Earthscan.

Stern, D. I. (1997). The capital theory approach to sustainability: A critical appraisal. Journal of Economic Issues, 31(1), 145‐173. doi: 10.1080/00213624.1997.11505895

USAID (2005). USAID and Sustainable Tourism: Meeting Development Objectives. Washington, DC: United States Agency for International Development.

World Commission on Environment and Development (1987). Our Common Future. Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press.

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Multimedia

Journeyman Pictures (2016). Is Bali in danger of losing its soul? Retrieved July 26, 2017, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjMMcxe1C64

HBO (2014). Don’t Visit Antarctica: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver. Retrieved July 27, 2017, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dH573B1bkHI

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Tourism Planning & DevelopmentWk 3 Sustainable development and impact management:

Tutorial 03‐2 establishing indicators

Content

• Following the lecture on impacts and sustainable measurement, attention is paid to the need for monitoring progress

• The difficulty of establishing a concise yet complete set of indicators is discussed

• Reporting of progress on indicators will always entail public choice on setting benchmarks

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1. Impact monitoring: appreciating donkeys

• If sustainability is a work in progress, with alternating objectives, this progress needs to be continuously tracked

• In order to move towards a more sustainable development, a first step is identifying the key tourism resources and the potential impacts that could happen here

• One general issue:It’s hard to see the forestfor the trees!

haraldlepisk

• A wide variety of impact measurement indicators and/or tools have been developed, differing in:• Methodology: qualitative or quantitative

• Comprehensiveness: focused on one dimension or multidimensional

• Outcome: part scores or composite score

• Scope: universal or destination‐specific

Andrew Sunray

E.g. Hectares of natural protected space: quantitative and unidirectional

E.g. Tourism multiplier effect: quantitative and unidirectional

E.g. Ratio of locals/visitors: quantitative and unidirectional

∑ of these to create quantitative multidimensional composite score

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• Example of a simple composite score: Tourism penetration index (TPI):• The tourism penetration index (TPI) is designed as a rather simple composite score of three different indexes that measure the economic, social, and environmental penetration of tourism. The complexity largely depends on the choice of variables representing impacts

• Use of TPI is limited to comparing multiple destinations in a relative fashion

• Steps for calculating TPI:1. Choice of destinations

2. Choice of indicators/indexes

3. Standardization of indexes via: Iij =

, with i = variable i and j = destination j

4. Aggregating three indexes: TPIj = ∑ , with w = weights for different indexes and w1+w2+w3 = 1

• Payeras et al. (2002)

• Applying the TPI to Balearic Islands: 1. Comparing the Balearic Islands with 20 Caribbean islands

2. Economic = tourist expenditure per capita; Social = average daily visitor density per 1000 residents; Environmental = hotel beds per km2 of land area

3. Ieco = 0.56; Isoc = 1; Ienv = 0.49

4. TPI = (0.56 + 1 + 0.49) / 3 = 0.683

• Payeras et al. (2002)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Aruba Balearic Barbados Bermuda Cayman Is St Maarten

Economic Social Environmental TPI

Payeras et al. (2002, p.372)

But how to interpret these scores?

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• Of course, the problem with composite scores…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aboZctrHfK8Copyright: Buena Vista Pictures (2005)

2. Selecting indicators: a 7‐step approach

Tanguay et al. (2013, p.866)

Adopts a scientific approach to ensure coverage of all sustainability sub‐dimensions in an effective and efficient fashion

Introduces the policy‐perspective to ensure fit between indicators and decision‐making

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• To start the first step, the WTO’s (2004) Indicators of Sustainable Development for Tourism Destinations: A Guidebook is a comprehensive starting point, listing a wide range of multidimensional indicators within more general groups of issues

• Tanguay et al. (2013)Tanguay et al. (2013, p.869)

‐Ecosystem‐Water‐Atmosphere‐Energy‐Waste‐Landscapes and nuisances‐Resilience and risk

‐Security and safety‐Health‐Satisfaction‐Public participation‐Culture‐Accessibility

‐Investments‐Promotion of ecotourism‐Economic vitality‐Employment‐Marketing‐Reputation‐Traffic

• The WTO (2004) acknowledged the need to make choices in issues and indicators and consider the wide range of indicators as a menu from which to pick the indicators of particular relevance (while suggestion Baseline indicators)

• Minimum requirements are also reflected in the monitoring requirements of UNWTO INSTO Observatories (http://insto.unwto.org/framework/):

• Tanguay et al. (2013) note the need to make the reduced list of indicators comprehensive, while allowing maximum coverage of all specific issues (general rule: one indicator per issue)

Dimension Economy Environment Social

Indicator groups

‐ Tourism seasonality‐ Employment‐ Destination economic

benefits

‐ Energy management‐ Waste water management‐ Waste water (sewage)

management‐ Solid waste management

‐ Governance‐ Local satisfaction

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• Exercise:• Start from the Baseline Indicators of Sustainable Tourism, proposed by WTO (2004, p.244‐245)

• Choose one specific indicator from this list and try to fill in the Indicator Selection Worksheet (WTO, 2004, p.485) and the Indicator Development Worksheet (WTO, 2004, p.486‐487) for Auckland

• Try to find current information on this indicator for Auckland

ChewyPineapple Shane Grantham

3. Indicator reporting

• Indicator reporting is complicated by problems such as:• Difference in timescales between indicator collection

• Difference in measurement level (complicates normalization possibilities)

• Lack of benchmark on what consists an acceptable/unacceptable situation

• Commonly, reporting takes the form of an ordinal type of measurement:

SaintGeorgeIV

Ordinal levels of judgement then based on long‐term policy strategies. Yearly evolutions are compared to long‐term goal and a qualitative interpretation is given as to whether or not we are on track to achieve the set goal

Statistics New Zealand (2011, p.5)

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• At planning process, indicators were selected based on strategic goals

• Since SALK project was very much centred on economic growth for the region, indicators strongly mirror these goals and primarily focus on economic dimension

Strategic goals Indicators

SG1 Increase potential of tourist sector I1: Increase in tourism establishmentsI2: +2,000 jobs in tourism sectorI3: Increase in investment in tourist sectorI4: Financial health of companies within tourism risesI5: High job satisfaction of employees in tourism sector

SG2 Increase customer satisfaction through qualitative supply

I6: Satisfaction of tourists remains positiveI7: Tourists judge Limburg as a hospitable destinationI8: Number of licensed accommodation providers increasesI9: Number of establishments with quality label increasesI10: Number of establishments providing accessible tourism increases

• Toerisme Limburg (2013)

Strategic goals Indicators

SG3 Increase reputation and attractiveness of Limburg

I11: Limburg is seen as green and child‐friendlyI12: Number of leisure tourists from target markets increasesI13: Number of overnight stays increasesI14: Number of visits to tourist attractions increasesI15: Use of route networks (cycling, walking, horseback riding) increasesI16: Number of visitors to tourist information centres increasesI17: Online interest in Limburg increases

SG4 Increase profit margin and employment

I18: Revenue in the tourism sector increasesI19: Tourist expenditure of overnight tourists increasesI20: Tourist expenditure of excursionists/day visitors increasesI21: Expenditure of users of route networks increases

• Toerisme Limburg (2013)Andrew Sunray

I1, I2, I3, I4, I12, I13, I14, I15, I16, I17, I18, I19, I20, I21

I5, I8

I6, I7, I9, I10

I11

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Conclusion

• Sustainable development is not an end state that remains fixed in time situations are continuously evolving

• Value of the concept lies in focusing attention on foreseeable impacts and taking actions in order to minimize them

• In order to do this, establishing potential impacts and linking them with measurable indicators (for the monitoring process is essential)

• In the end, there will always be an important measure of subjectivity in this process, specifically when establishing benchmarks

References

Payeras, M., Pou, L. L., Alemany, M., & Borras, C. (2002). Economic, social and environmental impact of tourism on Balearic Islands/ an application of the tourism penetration index. In N. Andrews, S. Flanagan, & J. Ruddy (Eds.), Tourism destination planning (pp. 361‐377). Dublin, Ireland: Dublin Institute of Technology.

Statistics New Zealand (2011). Key findings on New Zealand’s progress using a sustainable development approach: 2010. Wellington, New Zealand: Statistics New Zealand.

Tanguay, G. A., Rajaonson, J., & Therrien, M.‐C. (2013). Sustainable tourism indicators: selection criteria for policy implementation and scientific recognition. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 21(6), 862‐879.

Toerisme Limburg (2013). Strategisch actieplan voor het toerisme in Limburg 2014‐2019. Hasselt, Belgium: Toerisme Limburg.

WTO (2004). Indicators of sustainable development for tourism destinations: A guidebook. Madrid, Spain: UNWTO.

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Multimedia

Buena Vista Pictures (2005). The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. Retrieved August 2, 2017, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aboZctrHfK8

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Tourism Planning & DevelopmentWk 4 Surveying and analysing area characteristics

Lecture 04‐1

Content

• Surveying of the actual resources available is an important step in the entire planning process. In order to look ahead, we must realize where we come from

• It requires looking at both the supply and the demand side, from a touristic as well as a wider point of view

• Development as evolution rather than revolution, building on a solid foundation and activating strengths

• The analysis takes input from the survey stage and transforms it into workable knowledge. Bringing all elements from the area survey together in a spatial overview is the first step towards a deeper analysis

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1. Surveying resource availability

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgeFNZTcv60Copyright: C News Live (2017)

• Where we are now:

Inskeep (1991, p.50)

‐ Wk2: Set initial objective, team, and planning

‐ Wk3: Establish success indicators based on end goals

‐ Wk4: Identify key existing resources and main markets present in the destination

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• Data collection of situation ‘as is’ (as well as non‐project related planned developments) can be both quantitative and qualitative, e.g. review of existing maps, official governmental data (stats), discussion with relevant stakeholders, field surveys, social media, etc.

Sharpley (2009, p.181)

SUPPLY: What are the destination resources to work with?

DEMAND:What do tourists do, what do they want, what do they need, …?

Kounosu

• Need to balance product‐led and market‐led development perspectives:

Product‐led: developing something that is grounded in strengths of destination

Market‐led: developing something that is in demand by specific tourism segments

On a sustainable basis

Chick Outlet Shopping VISITFLANDERS

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2. The general survey: supply side

a. General, non‐tourism‐specific

Zoï Environment Network NASA

1. Geography 2. Socio‐cultural 3. Economic 4. Environmental quality

5. Institutional elements

6. Infrastructure

‐Climate: especially in cases where climate is important tourist attraction‐Topography: slopes < 20%, erosion, areas prone of flooding‐Wildlife and vegetation‐Coastal and marine areas‐Geology and special environmental features (e.g. volcanoes, geysers, mineral waters)

‐General history of the area‐Population characteristics: employment, geographic distribution, education levels‐Cultural patterns and local lifestyles

‐ Income levels‐Main components of the economy (especially those that might be of tourist interest)‐General land use patterns: agriculture by type, industry, recreation, conservation

‐Air quality‐Quality of surface waters‐Noise levels‐Cleanliness of public places‐Congestion levels‐Environmental diseases: prevalence and geographic distribution of cholera, malaria, dysentery

‐Basic economic, physical and social development policies and strategies of country or region‐Tourism education and trainingprograms‐Political stability and safety

‐Transport facilities and services‐Water supply: potential resources may include underground water, surface water, catchment areas and desalination of sea water‐Electric power‐Waste disposal‐Telecommunications

• Godfrey & Clarke (2000); Inskeep (1991)

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• Example: Climatic patterns for Thailand and Sri Lanka

Because of seasonality of rainfall, good beaches for resort development exist along both the east and west coast, reducing nation‐wide seasonality.

Inskeep (1991, p.72)

• Example: Transportation analysis for Mongolia• Situated at relatively long distance from key markets: in 1990 only direct flights from Moscow, Irkutsk and

Beijing

• Thinly populated and widely dispersed attractions

• Transportation key requirement, consisting of domestic flights, bus services (for distances under 300 km), and roads (in need of improvement)

Inskeep (1991, p.126)

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b. Tourism‐specific characteristics

• 4 Locations considered, with estimated visitor numbers:‐ Middleton: exp. 110,000‐125,000‐ Clyne Valley: exp. 130,000‐160,000‐ Bute Park: exp. 210,000‐250,000‐ Penheim: exp. 380,000‐390,000

• Compared to, e.g. the Royal Botanic Garden at Kew (1.3 million visitors in 2009), and the Royal Horticultural Society garden at Wisley (964,212 visitors in 2009), visitor numbers for National Botanic Garden of Wales at Middleton quite low

Keirle (2011, p.14)

Peter Shaw

1. Natural attractions 2. Cultural attractions 3. Dedicated attractions

4. Accommodation 5. Cuisine 6. Other services

‐Scenic beauty: associated activities such as pleasure driving, scenic view points, wildlife viewing, camping‐Beach and marine developments for sunbathing,swimming, boating, etc.‐Parks and conservation areas‐Flora and fauna‐related attractions such as zoos, aquariums, botanic gardens

‐Archaeological,historical and cultural sites‐Museums and other cultural facilities‐Cultural festivals‐Arts and handicrafts‐Tourist activities related to economic industries

‐Theme parks‐Shopping areas‐Conference venues‐Special events such as sports contests, fairs, and expos‐Entertainment, casinos, nightlife‐Recreation and sports

‐Types and quality of accommodation‐Occupancy rates‐Room numbers

‐Cuisine and food‐related patterns: wine tourism, champagne region, kiwi tours, coconut plantation tours, etc.‐Eating and drinking establishments and quality

‐Tourist informationpoints‐Money exchange and financial services‐Medical facilities


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• Example: Tourist attractions in Mongolia• Major primary attractions of Mongolia are its scenic, open, unspoiled landscapes, it’s fauna and flora

• Cultural attractions are of secondary importance and should be used to provide diversity in tour itineraries

Inskeep (1991, p.102)

• The survey collects all this information in a structured manner:

Godfrey & Clarke (2000, p.83‐84)

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3. The general survey: demand side

• A second category of elements to survey relate to the tourism market (past and present), specifically:• Place of origin

• Purpose of visit

• Length of stay

• Demographic profile (age, sex, family, income, education)

• Travel company

• Expenditure pattern

• Visitor attitudes and satisfaction levels

• Motivations

• Route


• Sources for information can come from Embarkation/disembarkation immigration cards, accommodation surveys, special tourist surveys, national population census (for domestic tourism), etc.

• Also interviews with most important TOs in tourism market countries

• Social networks becoming increasingly important as additional source of info, offering diverse and novel opportunities:• Sentiment analysis via twitter, blogs, etc. (https://monkeylearn.com/blog/creating‐sentiment‐analysis‐model‐with‐scrapy/)

• Location analysis of pictures (https://www.flickr.com/photos/walkingsf/sets/72157624209158632/)

Eric Fischer

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4. Bringing elements together: qualitative method• A first step towards a combined analysis is simply to combine the elements of the survey and qualitatively identify their relative uniqueness and appeal

Godfrey & Clarke (2000, p.88)

5. Bringing elements together: cartographic methods• A destination zone consists of 3 major parts:

• Areas with attraction potential that are seen as potential destinations

• A community with sufficient infrastructure and extra capacity

• Transportation and access from market sources

• In general, tourism potential and distance to the attraction are inversely related: the farther an attraction is from the main tourist area, the less likely it will attract a significant amount of visitors

• Attractions should be reasonably close (about 2‐3h) to main tourist centres or be linked in order to provide tourists with more than a day trip possibility

• Gunn (2002)

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• Example: Birmingham’s Jewellery Quarter

• Birmingham’s Jewellery Quarter expanded fast during late 19th century but has since gone in decline

• Renovation projects included an anual festival and a Museum of the Jewellery Quarter

• The museum only attracted 22,000 visitors per year, instead of the projected 120,000

• One of the problems might be its perceived remoteness from the city centre

• Even though it’s just a 12‐minute walk, the route is disconnected and doesn’t offer a proper tourist experience

Fields & Humphreys (2002, p.41)

a. Cartographic regionalization:• A method of defining regions by drafting and then superimposing a series of maps, showing distribution of important areal characteristics

• Weights are chosen in function of development objective (e.g. natural vs. cultural destinations)

Gunn (2002, p.185)

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• Often assisted by GIS‐software (http://www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/EN/ratesbuildingproperty/propertyinformation/GIS_maps/Pages/Home.aspx)

• Useful tool for cartographic regionalisation: http://www.qgis.org/en/site/

• A useful tutorial to start:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWTJ_TDPRdwCopyright: VT geospatial (2013)

b.Perceptual regionalization:• Is the mapping of opinion, with the help of a survey

• Tourists are asked to label areas, indicate where they entered the region, indicate the boundaries, etc.

c. Cognitive mapping:• Is a form of perceptual mapping

• Most often, respondents are asked to draw a map of a destination from heart, identifying the familiar areas, the places visited, the routes taken, as well as the boundaries to the destination

Gunn & Worms (1973, as cited in Smith, 2013, p.356)

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d.Functional regionalization:• Identifying regions by examining patterns of personal travel

• Factor analysis can be used to reduce the amount of regions

• Check‐in data of geospatial apps to develop ‘livelihoods’ (http://livehoods.org/)

6. Bringing elements together: quantitative methodsa.Matrix evaluation technique:

• A matrix evaluation technique, usually applied as a Weighted Sum Method, is simple and useful for both attraction‐specific evaluation as for regional destination evaluation

• It is similar to the cartographic regionalization technique in concept

• It basically involves 4 steps:1. Setting level 1 attributes (e.g. Physical, Social, Environmental) and weights (Wi)

2. Setting level 2 attributes and weights (wj)

3. Intra‐attribute scaling (sj)

4. Computation of aggregate potential value = ΣWi*(Σwjsj)

• Mamun & Mitra (2012)

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• Example: Murshidabad District, West Bengal (India)• Environmental attributes considered unimportant, weights (Wi) for social and physical considered as 0.4 and 0.6

• Weight of level 2 attributes based on their rank given by respondents

Al Mamun & Mitra (2012, p.4)

• Attributes were scored on a 1‐5 scale, reconverted to 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8 and 1 to be used in aggregation

• While this offers an easy quantitative and ‘objective’ overview of attraction strengths, it still requires thought on how well best scoring attractions link with potential demand

• Furthermore, it is not just a question of individual attraction strengths but also of potential attraction clusters

Al Mamun & Mitra (2012, p.5)

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b. Importance‐performance analysis:• IPA is a simple but effective tool that analyses quality attributes on two dimensions: performance and importance

• These two dimensions are then integrated into a matrix that can guide destinations to identify the most appropriate strategic options to enhance competitiveness

• It involves three simple steps:1. X attributes are chosen that are seen as critical in developing tourism

2. These x attributes are rated on both performance and importance, usually on a 5‐point ordinal scale

3. The sample means of performance and importance for all attributes are calculated and mapped on four quadrants, using the global empirical means as cross‐points (data‐centred quadrants approach) or using a scale‐centred quadrants approach

Ka Wai Lai & Hitchcock (2015, p.245)

Characterization of quadrants: (I) concentrate here, (II) keep up the good work, (III) low priority, and (IV) possible overkill

• Example: Kilimanjaro National Park (Tanzania)• 13 attributes were identified and a sample of visitors was asked about importance and performance on a 5‐point Likert scale

• Gridlines were set at 4 for both importance and performance (a performance‐centred quadrants approach), because Tanzanian tourism positions itself at the high‐end scale

Wade & Eagles (2003, p.201)

In a data‐centred quadrants approach, gridlines would be at 4.16 and 3.52

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Conclusion

• Before bringing elements together and linking them, a thorough data collection is needed, both quantitative and qualitative

• It is important to have both a demand and supply‐side perspective in order to adequately link these and develop tourism product with a market and a sense of authenticity

• Mapping of elements to uncover larger areas with a singular destination image and highest development opportunities is a first important step towards analysis

References

Al Mamun, A., & Mitra, S. (2012). A Methodology for Assessing Tourism Potential: Case Study MurshidabadDistrict, West Bengal, India. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 2(9), 1‐8. Retrieved from www.ijsrp.org

Fields, K., & Humphreys, C. J. (2002). Birmingham’s jewellery quarter: is spatial integration a key requirement for success? In N. Andrews, S. Flanagan, & J. Ruddy (Eds.), Innovation in tourism planning (pp. 39‐53). Dublin, Ireland: Dublin Institute of Technology.


Gunn, C.A. (2002). Tourism Planning. Basics, Concepts, Cases (Fourth Edition). New York, NY: Routledge.


Ka Wai Lai, I., & Hitchcock, M. (2015). Importance‐performance analysis in tourism: A framework for researchers. Tourism Management, 48, 242‐267. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2014.11.008

Keirle, I. (2011). ‘This Other Eden’: Marketing the National Botanic Garden of Wales. In B. Garrod & A. Fyall(Eds.) Contemporary Cases in Tourism (pp.1‐32). Oxford, United Kingdom: Goodfellow Publishers Limited.

Smith, S. L. J. (2013). Tourism analysis: a handbook. New York, NY: Routledge.

Wade, D. J., & Eagles, P. F. J. (2003). The use of importance‐performance analysis and market segmentation for tourism management in parks and protected areas: An application to Tanzania’s National Parks. Journal of Ecotourism, 2(3), 196‐212. doi: 10.1080/14724040308668144

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Multimedia

C News Live (2017). Tourism Baseline Survey Project. Retrieved August 1, 2017, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgeFNZTcv60

VT geospatial (2013). QGIS: An Introduction. Retrieved August 1, 2017, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWTJ_TDPRdw

3/08/2017

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Tourism Planning & DevelopmentWk 4 Analysing destination elements: exercises

Tutorial 04‐2

Content

• This tutorial further looks at the analysis‐stage of the surveyed data

• Exercises are given on the importance‐performance analysis, the matrix evaluation technique, and cartographic regionalization

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1. Exercise: Importance‐performance analysis• Go to https://goo.gl/forms/MXS3r8VooqkxEXGs2 and fill in the questionnaire

• Calculate the mean values for importance and performance of each attribute

Attributes Importance (mean) Performance (mean)

Diversity of leisure attractions

A walkable city (everything closeby)

A safe city

Nightlife

Diversity of restaurants

Price of food and beverages

Good price‐quality of accommodation

Well‐connected with attractions outside city boundaries

• Draw the importance‐performance matrix using data‐centred quadrants5

4

3

2

1 5432

Perform

ance

Importance

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2. Exercise: Matrix evaluation approach

• The city of Amsterdam is considering a new development project in order to draw tourists away from the overcrowded central area. Each of the locations considered has particular strengths and weaknesses in economic development, the environment, and the social fabric

• First of all, come to a general agreement on the weights to be used for each primary attribute:

Primary attribute Weights

Economy

Environment

Social

Sum = 1

• Now give weights to secondary characteristics based on community‐shared rating of the classroom via https://goo.gl/forms/gQhbK8Zu3owJtqVh2

Primary attribute

Secondary characteristics Weights

Economy (Ec1) Presence of accommodation

(Ec2) Museums and other cultural facilities

(Ec3) Arts stores and creative industries

Environment (En1) Close to famous Amsterdam canals

(En2) Near public transport stops

(En3) Cleanliness of environment

Social (S1) Population per km2

(S2) Safety of area

Sum = 1

Sum = 1

Sum = 1

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• Expert appraisals of the three zones have given the following scores (on a 1‐5 scale) per characteristics for each zone under consideration. With these scores and the previously calculated weights, calculate the composite total score

Economy Environment Social Total

Ec1 Ec2 Ec3 EcT En1 En2 En3 EnT S1 S2 ST Tot

Location 1 4 2 1 4 2 5 2 1

Location 2 2 4 2 4 2 4 4 2

Location 3 5 4 5 5 5 2 2 2

3. Cartographic regionalization

• A map of Slovakia, dividing the country in 8 regions is included. The following information is provided:

Weighted index A B C D E F G H

Water, wildlife 8 3 2 3 5 7 5 3 3

Topography, soil, geology 10 9 9 4 3 5 1 10 3

Vegetative cover 7 3 1 1 5 6 5 5 6

Climate, atmosphere 3 3 1 2 2 1 3 3 3

Aesthetics 13 10 6 4 12 6 7 1 5

Exciting attractions 10 10 8 8 8 1 9 4 1

History, ethnicity, archaeology 9 9 5 8 3 6 3 4 5

Service centres 15 12 5 7 6 10 10 11 12

Transportation, access 25 22 24 25 11 7 21 12 1

Total 100 81 61 62 55 49 64 53 39

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Golbez

Strong

Good

Moderate

Fair

Weak

AB

C

D

E

F

G

H

• Fill the regions according to composite tourism strength:

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Tourism Planning & DevelopmentWk 5 Understanding demand: segmentation and market

Lecture 05‐1 forecasting

Content

• In the previous week, we mentioned the importance of understanding market demand. This week we continue with the analysis of demand in the planning process

• First, we pay attention to market segmentation to identify homogeneous groups and their needs

• Second, we look at quantifying future demand via forecasting techniques

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1. Demand segmentation

• Demand is distinguished by different needs, characteristics and/or behaviour. Segmentation dissects general demand into more homogeneous markets

• For segmentation to be managerially useful, segments need to be accessible, measurable, substantial, and durable

• Smith (2013)

Max_Ryazanov Lorenzoclick nobbiwan

• Four segmentation bases that are commonly used:

• Tkaczynski et al. (2010), Weaver & Lawton (2010)

Geographic:

‐ Region, country of residence, subnational regions

Sociodemographic:

‐ Gender

‐ Age

‐ Family life cycle

‐ Socio‐economic status (education, occupation, income)

Psychographic:

‐ Motivations

‐ Personality types

‐ Attitudes and perceptions

Behavioural:

‐ Travel occasion

‐ Destination coverage, length of stay

‐ Activities

‐ Loyalty

Images: Jpatokal (left), marvel68 (middle, left), Alexas_Fotos (middle, right), Alan Light (right)

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• Majority of segmentation studies use a mixture (two or more) of geographic, demographic, psychographic, and/or behavioural segmentation bases

Tkaczynski et al. (2009, p.172)

a. A priori segmentation approaches• Type and number of segments are determined in advance

• Most applicable to segmentation studies with a limited number of segmentation bases and often applied using very simple techniques (e.g. crosstabs)

• Example: matrix segmentation for Ibiza on 3 dimensions (Age, Travel party, Location)

18‐25 26‐30 30+

Alone Group offriends

With partner


With partner


With partner

UK

Germany

Spain

Holland

US

France

54 possible segments!

• Jadczaková (2013)

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b. A posteriori segmentation approaches• As the name implies, in these approaches the segments are defined based on data analysis via statistical techniques

• Can incorporate a broad number of segmentation bases and applied using relatively more complex techniques (e.g. clustering, multiple correspondence analysis, neural networks, latent class analysis)

• Example: latent class analysis for Shiretoko Peninsula

• Jadczaková (2013), Neuts et al. (2016)

• Latent class analysis applied as a clustering approach for categorical variables (within a structural equation modelling framework)

• The model both predicts membership in a stochastic fashion and analyses the effects of covariates to explain class membership

• The model is applied to a sample of 1703 tourists to ShiretokoPeninsula and combines information on trip purpose, push motivations, activities, age, gender, travel party, and repeat visitation

Neuts et al. (2016, p.801)

• Identified groups: Class 1: ‘bear‐watchers’ (28%); Class 2: ‘Landscape‐lovers’ (22%); Class 3: ‘Organized tour groups’ (29%); Class 4: ‘Active explorers’ (20%)

• Covariate analysis indicated that younger travellers (<30) most likely belonged to classes 2 and 4, while older tourists (>59) more likely occupied class 3. People travelling in group or as a family predominantly belonged to class 1 and class 3 mainly constituted first time visitors

• Identified differences between classes can then be used to inform marketing campaigns and future developments

• Identified groups: Class 1: ‘bear‐watchers’ (28%); Class 2: ‘Landscape‐lovers’ (22%); Class 3: ‘Organized tour groups’ (29%); Class 4: ‘Active explorers’ (20%)

• Covariate analysis indicated that younger travellers (<30) most likely belonged to classes 2 and 4, while older tourists (>59) more likely occupied class 3. People travelling in group or as a family predominantly belonged to class 1 and class 3 mainly constituted first time visitors

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• Even though a priori segmentation is still widely used because of its simplicity, current practices increasingly adopted lifestyle approaches to segmentation, developing a destination image to match certain ‘lifestyles’

• Example: NBTC Personas of visitors to the Netherlands

NBTC © http://www.nbtc.nl/en/home/article/visitor‐target‐groups‐3.htm

Question:Comparing the profiles of Michael (Achiever) and Mary (Traditional), how would you promote the destination to each of these groups?

2. Forecasting future demand

• Two general forecasting techniques:1. Qualitative: via expert judgement,

based on macro‐changes in the environment

2. Quantitative: via time series analyses (trend extrapolation, causal models, gravity models)

• On different levels:• Product level: total product, specific

tourism form, specific item

• Geographical level: world, country, county, destination

• Time level: short, medium, long term

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0HBUjzLCAwCopyright: Hong Kong Airport (2011)

• Smith (2014), Vanhove (2005)

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• Four factors to be considered when developing a forecasting model:

• Smith (2014)

Organizational environment

Decision‐making environment

Existingknowledge

Nature of phenomenon

Characteristics such as structures, ways of operating, resources, and objectives of the organization influence the type of forecast needed and the quality of the forecast

Level of precision required and whether or not there’s a need for quick decision‐making. The more expensive the future plan/development, the more important the accuracy of the model

Many types of forecasting are based on information about past and current conditions. Is enough past data available? On which levels?

Certain phenomena show a high degree of stability while others exhibit dramatic changes. It’s also harder to forecast new demand than to forecast changes in existing demand

a. Qualitative:1. The Delphi method:

• Originally used to provide long‐range forecasts of technological developments. Later extended to the fields of economics, politics, medical developments, and tourism

• It systematically combines the knowledge and experience of experts to form group consensus of opinions concerning future events through a series of looped, anonymous questionnaires with feedback

• Generally speaking, the following steps can be identified in the Delphi method:

• Vanhove (2005)

Czkssa

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2. Scenario writing:• Looks at global patterns and interactions on a macro scale to forecast changes to demand

• Timothy (2011), Vanhove (2005)

Dimensions Variables Description

Demographic Population growth

While population growth is continuing at a slower rate than before, it is still an important continuous trend that mainly takes place in developing nations, opening up new markets

Ageing Aging of population in the Western world increases level of more affluent and healthier retirees, opening up extra demand for accessible tourism

Migration Migration and ethnic composition of tourist‐generating societies sparks an added interest in travelling abroad, especially back to the homelands

Family size Smaller average family size and rise in single person households gives people more freedom to travel more often to more distant places

Economic Economic cycle

Travel is a luxury good and correlates positively with economic cycles. In times of recession, demand for travel is lower (e.g. 2007‐2011), nowadays we’re in a period of recovery

Exchange rate

There is a direct correlation between exchange rates and international travel for personal holiday motives

Rise of new economies

‘New’ economies increasing in worldwide importance, giving rise to a new middle class of travellers

Political Conflicts, terrorism

Have a profound impact on tourism demand for an entire region creates shifts in demand rather than drops as tourists look for substitutes

Travel restrictions

Other political issues influencing demand relate to possible travel restrictions e.g. the rise in Chinese tourists partly attributable to less strict travel policies

a. Quantitative:1. Trend extrapolation via simple regression:

• Statistically analysing past data under the assumption that a past trend will continue in the future via the basic formula:

With Y = number of visitors, number of scheduled flights, etc.

X = any variable that influences demand (e.g. price, advertising budget) but in trend extrapolation it will relate specifically to some measure of time

• The formula is solved by simple least‐squares estimation of past data, graphically plotting a straight line through a collection of historic data points:

• Vanhove (2005), Smith (2014)

∑ ∑ ∑∑ ∑ 2

∑ ∑

∑ ∑ ∑

∑ ∑ 2 ∑ ∑ 2

Smith (2014, p.243)

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• Based on assumption that a variable may be forecast purely with reference to past growth rate. As such, important conditions are: (a) availability of time‐series data, (b) future must be similar to past, (c) it must be possible to detect trends, (d) it provides a short‐term forecast, (e) environment is stable

• Exercise: Forecast air transport passenger arrivals to New Zealand for 2017 and 2018

Year (X) Passengers (Y) in millions

XY X2 Y2

2007 12.55

2008 12.95

2009 12.10

2010 13.30

2011 13.75

2012 13.94

2013 14.43

2014 13.62

2015 14.33

2016 15.24

∑= ∑= ∑= ∑= ∑=

The World Bank (2017)

b = ???a = ???

2017 = ???2018 = ???

2. Causal models:• In order to identify trends and turning points (which cannot be detected via ordinary extrapolation), regression

analysis is based on modelling causal factors for visitor numbers/arrivals

• Analysis can take the form of a simple multiple regression, vector autoregression models that combine independent variables with past data on the dependent variable, or more complicated structural models

• Choice of causal factors is important here, and a distinction can be made between push factors, pull factors, and resistance factors (e.g. war, unfavourable exchange rates). Some of the most frequently used variables are:

• Household income in origin countries

• Commercial ties

• Price/relative price

• Price substitutes

• Access cost (transport price)

• Distance

• Travel time

• Exchange rate

• Promotion efforts

• Population growth

• Competing destinations

• Dummy variables (war, natural disaster, terrorism, etc.)

• Vanhove (2005)

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3. Gravity models:• Based on an analogy to Newton’s law of gravitation. Focus in a tourism context is primarily on the effect of

distance or travel‐time constraints on tourism demand

• The most simplified models use a function of population and distance. In practice, however, population is often replaced by more appropriate explanatory variables:

With Tij = a measure of tourist travel between origin i and destination j

Pi = a measure of population size, disposable income, travel propensity, etc. in origin I

Aj = a measure of attractiveness of destination j

Dij = distance between origin i and destination j

a and G = statistically estimated coefficients

• After calculating a, G, and constant Dij, forecasts can be made by estimating future values of Pi and Aj

• While one weakness of gravity models lies in the fact that it leads to unconstrained estimates (i.e. the idea that trips from origin markets can grow continuously without an upper limit, a main advantage lies in the fact that the models can be refined and modified extensively while remaining relatively computationally simple

• Vanhove (2005), Smith (2014)

• Example: Forecasting visitors to Taroka National Park

The basic formula in the model is:

Or

Taking the natural logarithm simplifies the gravity model into a multiple regression equation. Solving this equation gives the coefficients:a = ‐6.12597b1 = 1.465297b2 = (‐) 0.60327

If, for instance, we expect a rising population in Taipei to 3,000,000, this is expected to increase visits to Taroka National park to:

6.12597 1.465297 ∗ 30000000.60327 ∗ 465.5 166323.72

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• On country‐level, most governments already compile forecasts based on one of the previously identified quantitative methods; for regional levels, easiest to use current tourist shares on national forecasts

• Example: New Zealand• http://www.mbie.govt.nz/info‐services/sectors‐industries/tourism/tourism‐research‐data/international‐tourism‐forecasts

Since an estimated 78% of all tourists visit Auckland, applying this on projections would indicate 3,341,520 visitors to Auckland by 2020

MBIE (2017)

4,284,000 by 2020

• Such forecasts can assist in preventing future constraints on infrastructure:• Future demand for beds = No. of tourists * Average length of stay

365 nights * Occupancy factor

• Future demand for rooms = Future demand for beds

Average room occupancy

Question:Can you make this calculation for Auckland given that:‐ By 2020 there would be an estimated 3,341,520 international arrivals in NZ‐ About 44% of international visitors stay in hotels‐ The average length of stay is about 4.5 nights

Unique Hotels

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• The methods described earlier have one thing in common: they estimate demand for existing products/destinations what to do when we need to estimate market demand for a new product?

• The easiest method establishes foreign benchmarks. However, this is only somewhat possible if likewise products have been developed elsewhere. If not, market demand is estimated via market surveys

• Example: Patronage assessment of SkyPath

Steve https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2EQnooRASAQCopyright: SkyPath (2014)

• Identification of 4 major use groups: domestic visitors, international tourists, Auckland resident recreational users, Auckland resident commuters

• Over a 3‐week period, target user groups were surveyed on hypothetical use and achievable pricing

• From these survey results, deductions were made by applying the proportions of the sample to the official datasets (census population estimates and inbound tourism data)

• Results:• International and domestic tourists: 112,811 trips in year one, 222,217 in year 10

• Auckland residents: 668,573 trips in year one, 1,674,157 in year 10

International visitors All domestic target groups

‐Interview‐guided street intercept survey at i‐Sites, Auckland Museum, Kelly Tarltons‐Sample n=256‐Random sampling methodology, targeting all available international visitors

‐Via an online panel (SmileCity)‐Sample of n=1300 (stratified by age and region), with 500 Non‐Aucklanders, 400 Auckland residents within 10km radius of Harbour bridge and 400 wider Auckland residents

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• While forecasting is important for long‐term planning and development purposes, particularly for large infrastructure projects, the cost of getting it wrong can be very high

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdzWhd459_ACopyright: CBS (2015)

3. Choosing target markets/segments

• Finally, by combining a segmentation approach and a forecast by segments, we can make more informed decisions on target markets

• Choosing the right market to focus on in development ought to combine future growth with total market share

Jinho Jung

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• Example: Portfolio analysis for Germany

• And we need market share:

Outgoing tourism A B+Lux CH D DK E F GB I Japan NL USA S Sum

mrkt vol 97 8.98 15.93 12.71 112.57 21.47 15.74 29.89 60.39 31.28 11.53 25.81 46.47 9.51 402.29

mrkt vol 98 8.26 18.42 12.58 105.78 6.01 15.22 29.25 53.65 33.32 13.85 25.05 51.10 9.17 381.65

mrkt vol 99 7.86 20.23 13.71 123.05 6.52 14.34 30.70 63.16 34.25 12.62 27.61 50.92 9.44 414.39

mrkt vol 00 8.51 16.91 13.36 119.53 6.19 14.35 28.70 64.20 31.99 13.42 26.80 54.75 9.21 407.92

mrkt vol 01 9.26 16.39 13.87 115.46 5.69 14.26 29.32 68.67 31.35 10.18 26.61 48.13 8.47 397.64

mrkt vol 02 8.57 16.07 14.77 109.89 6.26 15.47 30.62 70.56 32.38 10.57 27.76 48.26 7.59 398.76

vol increase % ‐7.47% ‐1.94% 6.49% ‐4.82% 9.97% 8.46% 4.42% 2.75% 3.31% 3.90% 4.31% 0.27% ‐10.30% 0.28%

Arrivals per nationality to Germany A B+Lux CH D DK E F GB I Japan NL USA S SumArrivals to Germany (D) 1.66 1.88 2.27 1.24 0.95 1.63 3.38 2.10 1.30 5.65 3.96 1.20 27.23Total arrivals (=mrktvol 02) 8.57 16.07 14.77 109.89 6.26 15.47 30.62 70.56 32.38 10.57 27.76 48.26 7.59 398.76

Market growth = (mrkt vol 02/mrkt vol 01) – 1 = (8.57/9.26) – 1

=

Market share = Arrivals to Germany / mrkt vol 02 = 2.27/14.77 = 15.4%

Importance of market = Arrivals of origin market / Total arrivals in Germany = 1.20/27.23 = 4.4%

A

B‐L

CH

DK

E

FR

UK I JP NL

USA

S

‐15.00%

‐10.00%

‐5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Market share

Growth(source market)

STARS

COWSDOGS

???

mean market share

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Conclusion

• Additional to the supply‐side analysis, the demand needs to properly distinguish consumer segments and attempt to forecast their future growth

• For small‐scale projects or general visions, broad (qualitative) trend forecasts can suffice, but for large infrastructure forecasts, in‐depth, rigorous quantitative forecasts are necessary

• Knowing which segments exist, what the destination’s position is in serving these segments and how they are expected to grow, can lead to better informed choices on supply‐demand linkage

References


Jadczaková, V. (2013). Review of segmentation process in consumer markets. Acta UniversitatisAgriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 61(4), 1215‐1224. doi: 10.11118/actaun201361041215

MBIE (2017). New Zealand tourism forecasts. Retrieved August 12, 2017, from https://mbienz.shinyapps.io/tourism_forecasts_prod/

Neuts, B., Romão, J., Nijkamp, P., Shikida, A. (2016). Market segmentation and their potential economic impacts in an ecotourism destination: An applied modelling study on Hokkaido, Japan. Tourism Economics, 22(4), 793‐808. doi: 10.1177/1354816616654252

Smith, S. L. J. (2013). Tourism analysis: a handbook. New York, NY: Routledge.

Timothy, D. J. (2011). Cultural Heritage and Tourism. An introduction. Bristol, United Kingdom: Channel View.

Tkaczynski, A., Rundle‐Thiele, S., & Beaumont, N. (2009). Segmentation: A tourism stakeholder view. Tourism Management, 30, 169‐175. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2008.05.010

Tkaczynski, A., Rundle‐Thiele, S., & Beaumont, N. (2010). Destination segmentation: A recommended two‐step approach. Journal of Travel Research, 49(2), 39‐52. doi: 10.1177/0047287509336470

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The World Bank (2017). Air transport, passengers carried. Retrieved August 12, 2017, from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.AIR.PSGR

Vanhove, N. (2005). The Economics of Tourism Destinations. Oxford, United Kingdom: Elsevier.

Weaver, D., & Lawton, L. (2010). Tourism management (fourth edition).Milton, Australia: Wiley.

Multimedia

CBS (2015). $300 million spent on near‐empty Illinois “ghost airport”. Retrieved August 6, 2017, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdzWhd459_A

Hong Kong Airport (2011). Air traffic demand forecast. Retrieved August 6, 2017, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0HBUjzLCAw

SkyPath (2014). SkyPath. Retrieved August 10, 2017, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2EQnooRASAQ

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Tourism Planning & DevelopmentWk 5 Case SALK: choosing development opportunities

Tutorial 05‐2

Exercise

• Based on the development goals of SALK (i.e. creating employment opportunities via tourism projects), analyse the characteristics of the region to identify investment priorities

• Based on the readings given to you, can you answer the following questions…1. Given an investment fund of 3 million, which development projects would have your

preference and why?

2. Which are the primary tourist markets you would focus on in the promotional campaign?

3. Looking specifically into P7 ‘Rentmeesterswoning’, do you see market potential for a new 70‐room hotel?

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Tourism Planning & DevelopmentWk 6 Tourism policy and plan formulation: management

Lecture 06‐1 frameworks

Content

• Tourism policy is an integral part of the planning and development process and provides the framework that guides management decisions

• Policy is the strategy that is adopted to try to achieve the goals within the constraints and destination possibilities

• A variety of management frameworks can be adopted to manage growth and resources, usually distinguished between ‘blueprint’ and ‘process’ approaches

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1. Tourism plan and policy

• Tourism policy = set of regulations/guidelines and development objectives and strategies adopted by government that provide a framework within which collective and individual decisions are taken and arising from contests between different ideas, values, and interests

Study preparation

Determination of objectives

Survey of elements

Analysis and synthesis

Policy and plan formulation

Formulation of other

objectives

Implementing and monitoring

• Dredge & Jenkins (2007), Goeldner & Ritchie (2003)

A general tourism policy encompasses:• The philosophy: Indicates beliefs and values about how tourism can serve destination

• A vision: More functional and more inspirational portrait of the ideal future

• Objectives/constraints:• Operational statements of specific results sought by

the tourism system within a given timeframe and the way to reach such aims

• Achievements of objectives should contribute to fulfilment of vision and be reasonably defined and measurable

• Objectives can also be formulated in negative sense (e.g. maximum level of undesirable outcome that can be tolerated)

• They involve mediating values and interests of stakeholders

Goeldner & Ritchie (2009, p.426)

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• Some of the main policy considerations are:• Role of the government: passive, active, intermediate

• Level of environmental protection/cultural conservation

• Reasons for developing tourism: e.g. economic, providing recreational opportunities for citizens, achieve environmental and cultural conservation

• Type of tourism to be developed: e.g. general interest sightseeing, large‐scale beach resort‐oriented tourism, quality tourism, etc.

• Extent of tourism development and growth rate

• Location and staging of development

• Inskeep (1991)

• Example: Tourism policy of Flanders• Three main lines of tourism policy:

1. Strengthening image of Flanders 2. Supporting entrepreneurship and developing level playing field

3. Inclusive tourism for all Flemish people

Increasing economic benefits via:‐ Primary investment in USP’s:

Flemish Masters, cycling heritage, gastronomy

‐ Great War commemoration in specific markets

‐ Business and conference tourism, specifically in special venues

Mainly via direct investment

Supporting industry developmentand growth via:‐ Creation of level playing field in

accommodation‐ Quality rating system for

accommodation sector‐ Using cycling and walking routes

as leverage for regionaleconomic development

Mainly via legislation and subsidies

Increasing social capital via:‐ Stimulation of family‐friendly

investments throughout the sector

‐ Investment in qualitative accommodation for vulnerable market segments

‐ Subsidizing centre for holidayparticipation for people living in poverty

Mainly via legislation and subsidies

• Vlaamse Regering (2014)

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• How does our case (SALK) fit in with these policy lines?• Mainly focuses on line 1 of national policy: goal is to increase regional economic growth

• The role of the government is more active here, due to the urgency of the matter direct investments or targeted subsidies

• Type of tourism to be developed in line with USP’s of region:

Mining heritageChild‐friendly attractions

Cycling Landscape

2. Management frameworks

• A policy thus ultimately sets out the vision and strategy to manage available resources and develop new opportunities

• The management framework adopted to manage destinations in a more direct sense will depend on resource base and goal, but also political vision

‘Blueprint’ approaches ‘Process’ approaches

Hierarchy Top‐down management and development plans. Other stakeholders can be taken into account, but upper‐level takes final decisions on outcomes

Link top‐down management with bottom‐up beneficiary needs

Outcomes Are considered fixed Are a work in progress, developed in a cooperative, evolutionary, learning fashion

Planning versusimplementation

Project preparation process as the key to successful intervention. Separation between planning and implementation

Pilot projects, experiments, and incremental developments with feedback loops are essential

Examples EC, Zoning, ROS, CC LAC, VIM, VERP

• Brinkerhoff & Ingle (1989)

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• Example: DOC• Destination management framework inspired by higher‐level policy and visions for growth, conservation, and recreation

• Takes into account visions of different public sector stakeholders

Department of Conservation (2011a, p.12)

Department of Conservation

• Effective management of resources also takes place in an economic reality frameworks and policy are not fixed in time

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Npx9EFCxFzYCopyright: Al Jazeera (2013)

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3. Examples of ‘Blueprint’ approaches

a. The Entrepreneurial City (EC):• Overview:

• Philosophy came from need to change from a manufacturing city to a spectacular city. Government becomes active participant in urban development, competing with others via:

• Advertising and promotion

• Cultural regeneration

• Public art and civic statuary

• Mega‐events

• Physical redevelopment

Often via PPP’s!

Destination type

Primary goal Type of tourism development

Main constraint for growth

Urban Economic growth

Quality tourists, high spenders

Environmental and social protection limited. Main inhibitor to growth is amountof government budget

Soft approach

Hard approach

• Neuts et al. (2014)

• One of the main ‘hard’ approaches, is the creation of dedicated zones in the city

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqqrOugMwXECopyright: DW English (2015)

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b. Zoning:• Overview:

• Zoning is one of the best‐known and prevalent ways to manage development; it is the control by authority over land use, dividing areas into zones with various approved uses

• Urban zoning: often based on activity coincides with creation of attraction clusters and can help in lowering negative effects of tourist behaviour on locals

• Rural zoning: often based on need for protection• Peripheral zone: numerous and mass facilities

• Natural environment: accommodation facilities of non‐permanent nature (i.e. camping and caravan sites) and light sport facilities

• Special nature reserve: no roads, circuits of nature interpretation, trails for cycling, walking, horse riding, etc. No facilities other than rudimentary camping sites and shelters for mountaineering

• Natural sanctuaries: no access, no facilities

Destination type



Urban and rural

Controlled/ uneven growth

Can be different per zone

Depends on basis for zoning (e.g. site characteristics, usage/activities (see ROS), need for protection). Constraints either social or environmental

Protection low

Protection high

c. Recreational Opportunity Spectrum (ROS):• Overview:

• Idea: Experience is the result of: qualities provided by nature + qualities provided by management + qualities associated with recreational use

• Originally, 6 main ROS classes were defined (although this is adaptable):

Destination type



Urban, rural, natural

Maximizing visitor experience for different groups

Different per zone, frommass‐tourism to special interest tourism

Constraints both social and environmental

Primitive Semi‐primitiveNon‐motorized

Semi‐primitivemotorized

Roaded natural Rural Urban

Minimal High

Level of access, management facilities, social encounters

High Minimal

Remoteness, Naturalness

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• Key attributes that define the six classes are:

• By changing one of more setting conditions, the type of setting is changed and ultimately the type of recreation experience

• Key is to understand what the current settings are and what the desired settings are so that actions either maintain what is there or narrow the gap between existing and desired

Attributes Involves:

Physical ‐ Type of access‐ Remoteness: distance from nearest road, points of access

Social ‐ User density: number of people encountered

Managerial ‐ Visitor management: regulations, information, interpretation‐ Level of development, facilities‐ Naturalness: evidence of visitor impacts and/or management activities (e.g.

roads, timber harvest)

• Example: Mt. Aspiring National Park

Department of Conservation (2011b, p.3)

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• 4 Main zones, each with specific objectives, functions and developments

• Zoning at Mt. Aspire specifically aimed at managing recreation and tourism activities, managed to provide different experiences for visitors and limit pressure on sensitive areas

Zones Objectives Development

Wilderness zone

Primary purpose is to provide recreational opportunities and experiences for people seeking solitude and challenges in a natural environment free from facilities

‐ No facilities such as tracks or huts‐ No motorized access

Remote zone Priority is protection of natural quiet and remote experiences and form a buffer around the wilderness area. Visitors should be predominantly self‐reliant

‐ Some tracks and huts provided‐ Motorized access limited

Back country zone

Some areas suited for the less experiences, even though with a degree of risk and reasonable self‐reliance. Interaction with other parties more regular in areas more easily reached from Queenstown et al.

‐ Facilities include basic huts, well‐marked tracks and bridges

‐ Hardening of sites to cope with demand

Front country zone

Generally accessible by vehicle or within easy reach. Readily available access for people of most ages and abilities. The majority of park visitation occurs here

‐ Good quality facilities and services‐ Easy 2WD vehicle access‐ No limits places on guided party sizes or total number of guided visitors

• Department of Conservation (2011b)

d. Carrying Capacity (CC):• Overview:

• Originally a technical description = maximum load before breakdown occurs

• Difference in meaning depending on context:• In an environmental context: the maximum number of visitors to be allowed

before negative effects on environment are being felt

• In a social context: the maximum number of visitors to be allowed before negative effects of social pressure (crowding) are being felt

More difficult to estimate than technical carrying capacity: in essence we’re looking for a tipping point

Destination type



Natural Setting limitsto growth in order to safeguard resource

Depends on instrument used to set limits if financial, then tourists with a higher WTP

Depends on carrying capacity dimension (economic, social, environmental). Carrying capacity mostly in an environmental context, but social carrying capacity also possible

Mayeenul Islam

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• Example: Rwanda Gorilla trekking permits• Only 10 habituated gorilla families available for visiting, with a limit of 8 visitors per group per day, leading to a total availability of 80 gorilla permits on a single day

• Recently, prices per permit have doubled from US$750 to US$1,500. Rwandan citizens who previously paid US$36 per permit now also have to pay the US$1,500 fee

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haDzUXjBtzQCopyright: Sky 1 (2011)

Conclusion

• Policy essentially sets out the vision and strategy to manage resources in order to achieve a given outcome

• A large range of different management frameworks can be used in various circumstances and adhering to different policy objectives. They differ in main goal, tourist market targeted, and recognized constraints that need to be dealt with

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References

Brinkerhoff, D. W., & Ingle, M. D. (1989). Integrating blueprint and process: a structured flexibility approach to development management. Public Adminstration and Development, 9, 487‐503. doi: 10.1002/pad.4230090503

Department of Conservation (2011a). Destination management framework – a new approach to managing destinations. May 2011. Dunedin, New Zealand: Department of Conservation.

Department of Conservation (2011b). Mount Aspiring National Park Management Plan. June 2011.Dunedin, New Zealand: Department of Conservation.

Goeldner, C. R., & Ritchie, B. J. R. (2009). Tourism: principles, practices, philosophies (11th ed.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.


Neuts, B., Devos, T., & Dirckx, T. (2014). Turning off the red lights: Entrepreneurial urban strategies in ‘De Wallen’ Amsterdam. Applied Geography, 49, 37‐44. Doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2013.09.005

Vlaamse Regering (2014). Beleidsnota 2014‐2019 Toerisme. Brussels, Belgium: Departement Diensten voorhet Algemeen Regeringsbeleid.

Multimedia

Al Jazeera (2013). Law protecting Spain coastline to change. Retrieved August 18, 2017, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Npx9EFCxFzY

DW English (2015). Berlin Friedrichshain: Hip district | Made in Germany. Retrieved August 18, 2017, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqqrOugMwXE

Sky 1 (2011). Meet a Gorilla. Retrieved August 20, 2017, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haDzUXjBtzQ

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Tourism Planning & DevelopmentWk 6 Tourism policy and plan formulation: management

Tutorial 06‐2 frameworks

Content

• While ‘blueprint’ management frameworks have been discussed earlier, today we identify three ‘process’ approaches

• Finally, we look back at our SALK case study and the framework applied there

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1. ‘Process’ approaches

a. Limits of Acceptable Change (LAC):• Overview:

• Arose out of dissatisfaction with the concept of carrying capacity which was considered unrealistic (impact and use not perfectly correlated)

• Attempts to develop realistic standards based on people’s use, understanding, and valuation of natural areas often works together with ROS zones

• Main difference to previous ‘Blueprint’ approaches; LAC is non‐technical and outcome is consensual

Destination type



Primarily natural

Setting community‐defined limits to growth

Evolving towards the average tourist

Society‐wide accepted levels of economicgrowth and environmental/social degradation

• Coccossis & Mexa (2004)

• 4 basic components:• Identifying acceptable and achievable resource standards

• Documenting gaps between desired and existing circumstances

• Identifying management actions to close these gaps

• Monitoring and evaluating management effectiveness

• Most important (and also most difficult) part of LAC are: choice of indicators and choice of standards

• Indicators: things we can measure that tell us if desired conditions are changing because of human use (e.g. exotic plants, damaged vegetation, litter and waste)

• Standards: the point at which the indicator tells us whether a change is acceptable or not exceeding standard should trigger management action

• Example: Hells Canyon white water rafting• Most conflict started at take‐off/launch ramp

• Indicator of interest: time people spend waiting for their launch

• Standards: 80% of boating parties should not wait longer than 15 minutes

If standard is not reached, management action should be triggered

• Stankey et al. (1984)

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• Application of LAC can lead to a regression towards the mean though

• Special interest tourists often have lower LAC’s and might lose interest in the destination

Bentz et al. (2016, p.101)

b. Visitor Impact Management (VIM):• Overview:

• Goes beyond simply setting levels or capacities impact assessment of causal factors (not just use levels)

• Designed to deal with 3 main issues:• Identification of problem conditions (unacceptable impacts)

• Determination of potential causal factors affecting the occurrence and severity of the unacceptable impacts

• Selecting potential management strategies for ameliorating the unacceptable impacts

Destination type




Allowing forgrowth while managing impacts

Segments that cause minimal negative impacts

Accepted social and economic standards, in as far as they are correlated with visitor numbers

• Coccossis & Mexa (2004)

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• Example: Modifying tourist behaviour in Rome

Time © http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/10/09/rome‐bans‐food‐and‐drinks‐in‐bid‐to‐preserve‐ancient‐landmarks/

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c. Visitor Experience and Resource Protection (VERP):• Overview:

• Recognizes and combines both social and biophysical considerations in planning and management

• Comparable to LAC and VIM, but with the addition of visitor experience as measure of impact

Destination type




Maximizing visitorexperience within acceptable limits

Different per zone, frommass‐tourism to special interest tourism

Effects on visitor experience and social/environmental impacts

• Coccossis & Mexa (2004), Manning (2001)

• Includes nine systematic steps:1. Assemble an interdisciplinary project team

2. Develop a public involvement strategy

3. Develop statements of primary park/area purpose, significance, and primary interpretive themes

4. Analyse resources and existing visitor use

5. Describe a potential range of visitor experiences and resource conditions

6. Allocate potential zones to specific locations

7. Select indicators and specify stands for each zone; develop a monitoring plan

8. Monitor resource and social indicators

9. Take management action

• Coccossis & Mexa (2004), Manning (2001)

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2. Management in action: Tiritiri Matangi

• Community‐based restoration programme since 1984, including:

• Planting of 283,000 trees

• Translocation of endangered fauna

• Establishment of recreation facilities (tracks, visitor centre, interpretation)

• Joint partnership persists between DOC and NGO (Supporters of Tiritiri Matangi Inc.)

Shaundd

• Lück & Spring (2014)

• Soft/indirect visitor management strategies:• Introductory biosecurity talk by DOC representative when visitors arrive at Tiritiri Matangi

• Operational guided tours run by NGO

• Intermediate visitor management strategies:• Influential spatial and temporal elements of visitation by arrival and departure times, limited accommodation facilities, trails

• Hard visitor management strategies:• Visitors by designated transport (360 Discovery Cruises) restricted to 170 per day, 35,000 per year. But Tiritiri Matangi is an Open Sanctuary and people are free to visit by private boat

• Lück & Spring (2014)DrewHeath Duncan Wright

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• This project used a very top‐down approach to planning: local governments involved, but no larger communities

• Planning did not take into account any carrying capacity issues, since:• ‘Wild’ environment is not a key characteristic environment is rural at best

• Visitor numbers are not of the level that would suggest crowding‐related issues

Arrivals in Limburg

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Foreigners 394,494 422,039 422,497 342,673 319,281

Locals 594,523 586,130 609,213 616,855 601,227

• Zoning based on ROS was applied to identify different areas with different use characteristics, user interests, and development needs

• In the future, some measure of VERP might need to be considered, specifically for attractiveness of cycling routes (crowding could become an issue here)

Mining heritageChild‐friendly attractions

Cycling Landscape

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Conclusion

• ‘Process’ approaches allow for more flexibility but are ultimately close linked to the carrying capacity idea

• Ultimately, the many different models are ‘much ado about nothing’ and often differ little in outcome. Even when outcomes are considered somewhat flexible, all of LAC, VIM, and VERP approaches still require management action when certain standards are breached

References

Bentz, J., Lopes, F., Calado, H., & Dearden, P. (2016). Sustaining marine wildlife tourism through linking Limits of Acceptable Change and zoning in the Wildlife Tourism Model. Marine Policy, 68, 100‐107. doi: 10.1016/j.marpol.2016.02.016

Coccossis, H., & Mexa, A. (Eds.)(2004). The challenge of tourism carrying capacity assessment. Theory and practice. Aldershot, United Kingdom: Ashgate.


Lück, M., & Spring, J. (2014). Planning for Protected Areas [PowerPoint slides]. Tourism Planning & Development. Retrieved from Auckland University of Technology.

Manning, R. (2001). Visitor Experience and Resource Protection: A Framework for Managing the Carrying Capacity of National Parks. Journal of Park and Recreation Administration, 19(1), 93‐108. Retrieved from: http://js.sagamorepub.com/jpra

Stankey, G.H., McCool, S.F., & Stokes, G.L. (1984). Limits of Acceptable Change: A New Framework for Managing the Bob Marshall Wilderness Complex. Western Wildlands, 10(3), 33‐37. Retrieved from: http://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb5346576.pdf

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